Box Score Recap – 7/31/2013

Box Score Recap

Franco, Dugan and Hewitt all hit bombs for Reading. Hewitt, in fact, hit 2. If he hits 20 more in August, we may have something there. Mario Hollands scatterred 9 hits over 6 innings, allowing just one run. Larry Greene hitting out of the two hole, his natural spot, of course 😉 Ricky Bielski continues to hold the GCL at bay – he’s allowed just 9 hits and 3 walks in 14 innings, while striking out 12.

And Zach Green hit his sixth HR of the year. He’s striking out a ton, though. 13 in his last 10 games, (38PAs), and his rate for the year is near 29%. He’s walked a good amount, but his 2012 Ks are what led me to keep him out of my top 30 this off-season, and it seems like they’re continuing as an issue.

Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.

http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130731

7-31-13 boxscores

65 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 7/31/2013”

      1. Joe Jordan has been pretty aggressive with promotions. We’ll see. Dugan’s not really like anyone from last year. He wasn’t promoted nearly as early as Asche was in 2012, and their career paths are clearly much different anyway.

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  2. Where is Asche? Haven’t seen his name in the minor league box scores in a few days (haha – my poor attempt at humor).

    I was one that used to watch Gillies with a bit of regularity. I would think “is he a prospect or isn’t he”? In prior years, we had the injury issues that muddied the waters on who he truly was. Well, this year, he has been healthy – more or less. And, he is hitting sub-200. I realize that he is working to refine his swing, but the results just are not there. In my mind, I have officially crossed him off my list.

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    1. Agree onGillies. He will probably be not protected and left opened to the Rule 5 draft in December.

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      1. They need spots for Dugan, Altherr, Rupp, Garner and whatever Latin Free agents they signed in 2009. Some of the bums on the 40 man have to be released.

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      2. Gillies would have to be waived. I don’t know that he goes into the Rule 5 pool at that point. If he clears waivers, he’s back in the minors, or (someone check me on this if I’m wrong) a minor league FA. I don’t think they’ll do that. They’ll send him to Venezuela and see how he does and go from there, IMO.

        There’s plenty of filler on the 40-man right now that can be moved off without being claimed. Savery, Rosenberg, JC, probably Stutes, plus Nix is gone, MYoung, DYoung. Ruiz and Roy, most likely aren’t coming back, and JMJ could be non-tendered, though I don’t know that they’ll do that.

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  3. JPC continues hot.
    Chad Carman getting his stroke back.
    Herlis looking like a 30 to 35 candidate.

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    1. I’m not sure JPC is “hot” right now so much as displaying his talent. While BABIP doesn’t normalize for a while, I would say that his extremely high walk rate and low K rate are extremely positive signs that his performance is far more then BABIP driven.

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      1. Pretty much. I was a bit of a doubter a few weeks ago, but I’m very encouraged by his continued good performance and phenomenal BB/K rate.

        Still a long way to go from rookie ball though. Not sure if I’m ready to put him at #3.

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        1. For me, he’s 4 on pedigree and position alone.

          Franco right now is clearly #1, Biddle is a close #2, with the Cuban at 3 primarily due to proximity and high floor (#4/5) while maintaining a fairly high ceiling (say a #2/3).

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          1. Supra – I think I would place Crawford ahead of Gonzalez only for the reason that Crawford is yet to show that he is anything less than superior to his equally aged (and often older) competition. With the varying scouting reports on Miguel, I’m honestly not sure what his floor his, and even less sure about his ceiling.

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  4. I really don’t see the need for Franco to play AAA. The Phils need to take a shot and let this kid play in the show next year. Move Asche to 2b or outfield. Other organizations let kids make the jump and we never do. this kid has torn the cover off the ball all year and is hitting .370 at AA Reading. Let’s go!!

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    1. Well it’s been stated on here before that the quality between A and AA in our system isn’t very different pitching wise. But AAA features a healthy dose of decent breaking pitches that could challenge Franco.

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    3. Give Franco a taste of AAA at the end of the year. I can almost guarantee he won’t start in the majors (service time) but he might get there at some point

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    4. One point I would add is that extreme top prospects skip to the majors all the time from AA, even after a half season. That said, if the Phillies do have him skip AAA, you should take that as a sign that nearly the entire player development staff is unanimous in their belief that Franco could be a superstar in short order.

      Personally, a September call-up next year is far more likely though he will get an invite to spring training.

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    5. One issue is that it’s unclear whether he’s really figured out AA or just is crazy hot right now. I’d rather leave him in AA and see how he adjusts when pitchers start throwing him fewer strikes and he cools off a little.

      Though he has shown a remarkable resistance to cooling off thus far…

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      1. His power is down slightly since going to AA, but his insane K% should have normalized by now. (I think) as should his extremely poor walk rate. Though I will say, I can’t blame the kid, when you’re hitting 370, and slugging .600 in 150 AB’s the walks aren’t nearly as important.

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      1. I think you need to put a disclaimer in all your introduction blurbs to these threads so people stop asking. It’s a daily thing now.

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    1. Discouraged, you guys all look way too much at the strikeouts, Zachary green is only 19 years old. He leads the league in doubles and has 6 home runs and believe it or not , he has 5 sb’s !!!! His defense is really improving as well. Do you want him to display power and not strikeout ??? I’ll tell you 2 guys that struck out, Hank Aaron and Jim Thome. Think about that. Green is a top 10 prospect easily. He is 6’3″ and 210 lbs too.

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      1. Jim Thome had a 24.7% K rate in the majors- Zach Green has a 28.5% K rate in short season A-ball. There is an enormous difference there. Also, when Thome was 19 and in the Pioneer league he struck out 12% of the time.

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      2. You have to know why he is striking out so much to understand the reason behind it. Zach has a long slow swing. They have cleaned up a lot of the moving pieces as well as some of the approach but the bat speed isn’t there right now. He is still in short season ball so there is no reason to panic. But this is something that will cause problems up the ladder if he doesn’t work on it.

        That being said he is in Williamsport, realize he has plenty of flaws and plenty of time to work on them. He is definitely a solid prospect though

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  8. Shout out to Nick Ferdinand , a local Philly kid from Archbishop Ryan HS who is hitting .308 in his first year in the GCL

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  9. What Franco is doing at his age is rare. I have been following the minors for a long time and it doesn’t happen often. Even from “can’t miss” prospects. The sustained high level of production from Franco invalidates the ABS bullsh*t in my opinion. There is no way he would have such a massive hole in his swing and continue to hammer the ball. I am not saying that he won’t have to make adjustments…EVERY player does. Let me repeat that…Every player makes swing adjustments in the majors. but that is a very different situation then claiming he is a flawed prospect that will get exposed against certain pitchers. His consistency against all pitchers nullifies that meme IMO.

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    2. Well, the counter argument is that he won’t see real conistent, highend offspeed stuff (in terms of command) and mixing of pitches until at least AAA.

      But I don’t view it as a major problem. Will he have to make some swing adjustments at some point? Very likely yes. Is that a big deal? Very likely no, IMO.

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    3. If this continues through AAA for at least 200 AB’s, I will have almost completely dismissed those scouting reports. For now, his ceiling is a very practical .285 / 30 HR player and will contend for the all-star game year in and year out from 24 – 30 baring injury.

      I just did the math on what I would call his best case scenario…

      Average OBP Slug OPS
      0.302795699 0.3516 0.528602151 0.880202151

      This assumes 30 2B, 3 3B, and 30 HR’s to go with a walk rate of 7% and a BABIP of .320.

      The reason I think he’s a .285 hitter and not a .302 hitter is because I don’t think he’s going to end his major league career with a .320 BABIP, but rather something closer to .305, which results in the following line:

      Average OBP Slug OPS
      0.288602151 0.3384 0.514408602 0.852808602

      Still a lot to be excited about. And in his “career best” year, he could end up with something like this:

      Average OBP Slug OPS
      0.327564103 0.388083333 0.59496337 0.983046703

      That assumes a BABIP of .350, 35 HR’s and 35 2B and a 9% walk rate.

      All the above said, there’s always a chance he flames out, and with the concerning scouting reports, he’s by no means a shoe-in to achieve the above. (not that any prospect is.)

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    5. I love Franco, but we need to see what he does at the next level before we deify him. A lot of really super hitting prospects from Reading struggle at AAA – it’s a much harder level and the hitting environment is not nearly as good. If he rakes at Lehigh, then you can take a high level of comfort that he’ll probably hit well in the majors. It’s why I’m so high on Cody Asche right now.

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        1. 3A is tougher mostly because there are older pitchers with above avg savvy and below avg. stuff which is much harder for a young hitter to adjust to. That is why a lot of young prospects jump from 2A to the bigs. 3A is difficult to judge a hitter.

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  10. On potential alone Zach Green wont make your top 30??
    Who do you got in there, BJ Rosenburg??
    Always excited to see young guys make the move to full season Lakewood. Cozens, Knapp, Crawford, and Green could completely change the landscape of the system with big years.
    Or fall on their faces like Walding and Ryan Howard Jr.

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      1. Im not sure he fell flat on his face but he definitely did some disappointing this year , and I know its not always the players fault but he has a bunch of errors to boot , I agree he is young but and he can definitely turn it around but he definitely didnt fill me with confidence

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    2. Brad said the K% was what kept Green off the list LAST year. I imagine he’ll be in Brad’s top 30 this offseason. As he should be.

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      1. I think he’s going to continue to strike out a lot, walk a lot, hit for power, but have an average around .250-.260 most seasons. He reminds me a lot of Mark Reynolds. I think he’s definitely top-30, top-20 and maybe top-15(would have to break down everyone else more and see who graduated)

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        1. Eric Longenhagen did a piece on the Cutters at Crashburn alley. He had a short scouting report on Green among other prospects. He really liked Rios.

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  11. If Franco keeps playing as well as he has he will be the Phil’s third baseman next year. Even Amaro hinted at that. Of course he’ll go to AAA if doesn’t make the team out of Spring Training. This Phils have no other big bat options. The facts are- if you add McCain and Choo with Franco playing like he is playing now the Phils will win this crappy division next year.

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    1. I seriously doubt it, at least not to start the year. Asche will start the season as our major league starting 3B. At mid-year or later, who knows. As of now, Franco enters next season with half a year above A-ball. Makes no sense to open the season with him in Philly — no chance to truly evaluate Asche and not enough minor league seasoning for it to be fair to Franco. I have no doubt Franco starts 2015 as our major league 3B, but next April is just too fast, even for a prospect as good as Franco.

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      1. allentown nails it. You need time to evaluate Asche and there’s no real rush for Franco to be in the majors. Plus I really think Franco would benefit from a season in AAA. That would give him a chance to see more refined pitchers and he may be able to work on his approach if he needs to.

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    2. I love the “will be” as opposed to “should,” “may be,” or even “probably will be.”

      I’m not going to get into the should, other than agreeing with allentown. But “will be?” Assuming I could get even odds on that, I’d be happy to put a significant amount of money on the other side of the bet.

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      1. Typical hopeless and sad response Boys. The point is to win Phillies ballgames. That’s what all of this is for. Your negative attitude should be played our somewhere else. This site is for Phillies fans.

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      2. In his defense, Anonymous did condition his statement on Franco continuing to hit like he has so far in AA, an unlikely proposition.

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    3. McCann is not coming to philly , no way no how , hates this place and has said so often , and I dont want Choo if it cost the Phillies their top ten pick , hell and NO

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    1. That looks like an incredibly easy swing, he doesn’t “fly out of his shoes”… I’ve got really high hopes for him right now even if it is far too early to identify what those hopes are. 🙂

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    2. Great video pablo. Thanks for sharing.

      I was standing about 15 feet away from Crawford during his two ABs today in Clearwater (also have video from my iPhone). I’ll throw this out there for anyone – look at the location of his hands at pre-swing – look familiar?

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    1. Mitch Rupert reported that he got plunked and was jawing with I believe the pitcher on his way to first base. Apparently, Nelson Prada does not like that

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      1. Cozens is not the guy you want charging the mound , or even saying things , I see you after the game , sweetie , or 3 oclock high

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  15. So Matt Winks, you broke down Zach’s swing; what can you tell us about Franco’s? Do you agree with that lengthy eval we had of Franco on here last week? Also, have you seen Walding’s swing? I’d be eager to read your thoughts.

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    1. I have not seen Walding’s swing. As for my opinion on Franco I wrote a piece about 2 weeks ago where I walked through the whole profile on Franco and my thoughts on his swing, approach, and defense

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