Given the struggles of the big league club I have worked to make this as positive and uncontroversial as possible to give everyone as good a start to their week as possible.
At some point I am going to compile a full list of Twitter people to follow, but for now enjoy a quick one per level to to check out their work and thoughts (not all names associated with the Phillies exclusively)
- GCL – Chris King @StatsKing
- Williamsport – Mitch Rupert @Mitch_Rupert
- Lakewood – Tony Graham @tonygsports
- Clearwater – Ben Gellman @BenPxP
- Reading – Eric Scarcella @FightinsPR
- Lehigh Valley – Kram209 @KRAM209
On to the thoughts:
JP Crawford is the guy we all hoped he was when the Phillies drafted him. Despite the errors in the box score the reports are the defense looks smooth. He is showing a good hit tool and approach, the power isn’t there and that will be a question for a while. Overall he looks like a great pick.
Staying in the GCL, Jose Pujols has looked much better in scouting than in the box score. The strikeouts are high but the walk rate is fine and his .157 ISO is pretty good for a 17 year old in the GCL. The batting average looks bad because of .214 BABIP.
Cord Sandberg has seen his batting average plummet has his BABIP has normalized, his strikeout rate over 25% for the year, as well as lack of power has kept the overall number down. But the rate is down to 21% in July and he has matched his 15 strikeouts with 15 walks. The power is there and will come out more as the contact rate goes up. He is more suited for LF long term but the bat will play and the defense will be superb in a corner.
I am still really concerned about the strikeout rate for Zach Green but he has dramatically increased his walk rate which will bode well for him making future adjustments.
Dylan Cozens is repeating his 2012 with 1% fewer strikeouts and .025 less BABIP. His hot start had people really excited, and that has seemed to cool. He may not be the power hitting savior ready for Philly but certainly has not failed Williamsport.
There are things to like about Nic Hanson, the first is he is 6′ 7″ with good control, the second is he is 6′ 7″ with a good sinker. He is missing bats, is still young, and might actually have some projection left on his frame.
After returning from his injury Kenny Giles has essentially been the breakout pitcher he was a year ago. He is walking nearly 4 per 9 IP but he has also striking out nearly 16 batters per 9. He should see Reading for a cameo before a likely trip to the AFL. He may have lost the chance at a quick ETA but it is a very special arm.
I am not going to get into what Severino Gonzalez might be long term, but he is pitching deeper into games and should start 2014 in AA. The Phillies international scouts can find talent, even when they don’t always know what they have.
Kelly Dugan has had a normal BABIP (.311) and is still able to put up good numbers .280/.341/.440. His strikeout rate and walk rate will likely go up as he spends more time in AA.
The walk rate is still fairly high for Ethan Martin, but the good news is that his strikeout rate is increasing and that he has been allowing fewer hits overall. He probably still ends up in the bullpen but his first call-up might be as a starter.
Phuture Phillies 
Good topics.
I think Serverino goes to CLW to start next year. REA would be a huge promotion IMHO.
My big question for discussion is who are the starters at LHV for 2014? Could use someone as trade bait? Will know more after Aug 1 though…
I see Cloyd sticking around. Morgan is back. Pettibone might be back if both Kendrick and Lannan are arbitrated (they should even if Kendrick is expensive, Phillies should not lose that kind of ‘talent’). Martin needs a repeat and should stay as a starter as long as possible. Biddle and Rosin deserve promotions.
2014 Majors: Hamels, Lee, Gonzalez, Kendrick, Lannan, and maybe Halladay?
In order of advancement at AAA: Pettibone, Cloyd, Morgan, Martin, Biddle, Rosin.
I could see Rosin repeating AA since the starters there look bad: Milner, Wright, Garner? Bunchanan? Hernandez?
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Sounds about right. Though, Cloyd may move on and see if he can catch on with another opp to get to the majors.
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Cloyd is unlikely to have the choice of moving on. He’s likely on the 40-man and under team control.
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Roy is done. As much as people will hope the Phillies should cast him off at the end of the year. They have $104.5 million committed to just six players (not including Gonzalez but including Adams) so there is not a lot of give for them to play unless someone like Hamels, Lee, Papelbon, or Rollins are moved in the next few days.
In order to give the team some room we are likely to see Pettibone start in the Phillies rotation along with Kendrick and Lannan (arb control).
Any discussion about next season has to start with money already committed to players under contract.
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I wouldn’t completely write Halladay off at this point. We have no idea what he’ll look like once he returns from injury, especially with that work ethic. If he does come back I’d like to think he would sign an incentive-laden deal. Who knows though….a lot could happen between now and next February.
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You could definitely be correct about this. I’m just not sure it as much of a sure thing as you think. Even assuming no big salaries go in the next few days, IF they don’t sign a big Free Agent, then they have room for what I think Halladay will get, given his age and health, with will be a one or two year deal in the 10 million range. And I don’t think they are going to sign a big FA. Who would it be? There aren’t many names worth a big contract, and competition for those few players will be fierce. McCann? He’s put himself in position for a very large pay day, and I don’t see the Phillies being the one’s to pull the trigger on him. Cho? The same but more so. A pitcher? If they want to go in that direction, Halladay, despite being risky, should be a relative bargain and not cost a pick.
I have very mixed feelings about whether Halladay should get that from the Phillies, but he might.
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One thing to remember about Roy is that he is 36. If he was 30 I could see offering him $10 million but at 36 and an aging core with a heavy salary load you have to let him go.
I think people need to let go of the run this team had from 2008-2010. The quicker you let it go the quicker you can look forward to the future. We all want Utley, Roy, Rollins, and Howard to return to the prime years but the reality is we have to move on.
What this team should do is what Boston did last year; sell everyone, move on, bring the young guys like Asche up, leave Ruf and Pettibone here, and rebuild through free agency with select moves. It is hard but the longer you put off the rebuild the worse it gets.
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Boston didn’t sell everyone. They kept, Pedroia, Buccholtz, Lackey, Ellsbury, Ortiz and others. Some of those had down years or were hurt last year, but are contributing this year.
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But they did make a major trade with LA which transformed the roster.
The point that I am trying to make is we need to move on. At 37 what are we expecting from Roy when we have over $100 million committed to six players? Are we looking to build towards another championship team or are we holding onto the past with the hope that everything breaks right for us with an aging core?
These are tough decisions to make and I would prefer that we moved on rather than try for one last grasp.
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Agree. That is the harsh reality. Time to turn the page. However two position players cannot be moved…Rollins(preference to stay) and Howard (contract), and the third is a mix bag among people either to keep or move, Utley.
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Jeez, what happened to 2011. I realize the post-season was a complete failure, but over the 162 game regular season, that was the top year of the run. We also won the NL East in 2007. The run was definitely not just 2008-2010.
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Nice to hear that the reports are better than the numbers on Pujols. Maybe I’m just entranced by his last name, but I like that guy.
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Biddle seems broken.
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There are many reasons for the drop in quality production for the young players, sometimes a step backwards is as good as a step forward.Give them all a little time. Minor league players are on a constant roller coaster, they are hard on themselves, we follow all of them and give our input both positive and negative,
but they are trying to fulfill a dream everyday.
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As I posted in another thread, It’s not a coincidence that he’s had 2 straight terrible starts during the main club’s collapse. He’s an extremely local kid, desperate to help the big league team. Cynics will scoff, but if you’ve played locally or been in a baseball family, you’d understand.
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Yeah ok. That is not a positive for Biddle, it would be even worse if he is in fact distracted and falls apart because the Phillies aren’t doing well.
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haha good point. So you’re telling me he just completely folds at the first sign of pressure? Thank god…for a second I thought there was something wrong.
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Jesse Biddle, Fisher King of the Phillies.
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Well call me a cynic then. The idea that Biddle’s recent struggles are in any way influenced by the struggles of the big club is a stretch of the imagination
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I thought he looked hurt yesterday. His last two pitches could hardly be called pitches, they were more wild lobs. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear he is being shut down. He still had 90-92 mph FB velocity, but no idea at all where the ball was going in the second inning, even prior to those two wild lobs. Maybe they were supposed to be big loopy curves which never actually looped, but they were about 2 feet too high and 2 feet too outside and didn’t have much velocity — the old eephus pitch gone wrong..
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Couple of points…
1 – Papelbon, Lee, Rollins, and Howard could all be traded in August as all will either clear waivers or only be claimed by a team willing to make a trade or assume the salary. Ruiz, the Brothers Young, and Utley are the guys that won’t clear in August.
2 – This team’s future is crap. RAJ values an aging Lee at $25M per year over the opportunity to get some impact prospects. The bullpen is an absolute disaster and I don’t want to hear about injuries – the Papelbon deal is going to be horrible the last 2 years, RAJ can’t select the right FA relievers if his life depended on it, and the young relievers in the system have not developed at all and somebody needs to be held accountable for that. The top 3 prospects include a guy with a swing that may not play in the bigs, a starter who can’t throw strikes consistently, and a 17 year old toothpick.
3 – This team went from Burrell, Victorino, and Werth to Brown, Revere, and D Young, or today Susdorf, Mayberry, and Nix.
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Re #2, The problem with this is the “some impact prospects.” Depending upon how you define impact, and the Market, Lee gets you between zero and one impact prospect. One if the market is good, if the Phillies kick in a ton of salary, and if you define “impact” loosely.
The irony is that I’d be okay for a Lee trade for a smaller package than probably most of the “trade Lee” crowd would agree to. I just think people are kidding themselves about his trade value.
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You think you know everything but you don’t….stick to the stats moneyball.
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Hilarious line, friend. Well thought out. Clever. Just primo stuff.
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He doesn’t know your name.
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I agree that if the Phils kick in no money that the return for Lee should not be much. OTOH, if the Phils pay half Lee’s salary through 2016 (@$43 million), I think the Phils can get a primo prospect (I am more interested in one elite prospect than a package of good prospects; I am thinking one of Profar, Taveras or Bogaerts.)
In support of my view, I cite this past off-season trade of what was essentially Wil Myers for James Shields.
What say you?
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The Cardinals have apparently said they aren’t planning to make any big moves for whatever that’s worth
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They rarely do…their model seems to work. Moz and Ruben have differing philosphical approaches.
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Short answer, Dayton Moore isn’t buying and doesn’t have an elite prospect to trade.
Longer answer, If you’re going to point to a deal to give hope for am elite prospect for Lee, that’s a good one. But I don’t buy it. It’s one thing to say “hey, maybe someone will make a ridiculous offer. It happens.” It’s quite another to talk about what we can EXPECT for Lee.
(1) That’s just not a typical return for a guy like Lee. It just isn’t. Even the relatively few deals that the optimists point too are MOSTLY for either (a) players who are nowhere near major league ready at the time of the trade, and end up developing into great players (Wheeler), or (b) near major league ready prospects who exceed expectations (Segura). Top 10 prospects just don’t get traded for 34 year old pitchers. Heck, can you think of any other instance, ever, where a top 10 at the time prospect was traded for an over 30 year old veteran? I can’t think of one.
(2) Dayton Moore is the worst GM in the business, but he isn’t a buyer now. Would anyone else make that deal?
(2b) Look specifically at the elite prospects on your list. Boston, Texas and St. Louis. Three of the best organizations in the business. Do you really think any of those teams are capable of a Dayton Moore type move? I don’t. And there’s a more general rule here. There is a high correlation between success and intelligent management. Not 100% but pretty good. Are ANY of the teams who might be in the market for a starting pitcher THIS SEASON going to make that kind of deal? The only contender who might fit that bill is LA,; they are no longer really in the market for a starting pitcher, AND I’m not sure that they have a truly elite prospect any more. With Puig graduated, who’s left? Pederson is not an elite prospect. Seager maybe is, but doesn’t fit the “major league ready” criteria that seems so important for most people around here.
To respond to roccom’s silly sarcastic comment, of course Lee is very very good. Very very good 34 year old pitchers do not, as a general rule, get traded for elite prospects. If we paid half his salary, I do think we get one solid prospect. Solid as in top 50, but not top 15. Whether than counts as a “impact prospect” is a matter of definition.
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Looks like Paps wants out after his comment after yesterday’s game. He didn’t sign up for this.
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In the best of times he’s been a bit of a jerk. I want to see him gone for other reasons, but this surely doesn’t help.
His value is low. At one point I thought he could get us a good (though, again, not elite) prospect. But no longer.
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Looks like the Tigers just picked up Veras from Houston. Not sure in exchange for what yet but this would pretty much eliminate the Tigers as a possible suitor for Paps. Not that there was a high probability to begin with.
It’s hardly surprising to see Paps comments. Very much Schilling-esque. Perhaps if he didn’t blow 4 saves in a week and a half we could still land something in return regardless of his reduced velocity. Still, would like to see him close the season strong in hopes that he maintains (or regains) some trade value headed into the off-season.
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Looks like the Astros get Danry Vasquez in return and a PTBDL. Vasquez is a 19-yr old out of Venezuela who is holding his own in A-ball but doesn’t appear to be anything to get too excited about. He was a Top 10 prospect for the Tigers and rcv’d a 7-figure bonus when he signed as a 16-yr old.
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The biggest problem with trading both Paps and Lee is that their recent performance has not been good. They may have had great first halves to the season, but neither one looks like they are ready to step in and give a boost to a contender. Both look like they may be hurt or in the case of Lee, tired. Both are very expensive. A sane GM just passes on them at this point. Papelbon’s reduced velocity this season and Lee’s recent HR rate have to raise eyebrows.
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If Papelbon did not blow six saves this season he would be much more tradeable. He has no one to blame but himself.
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He could blame the crappy defense behind him that turned what should have been 2 blown saves in a week into 4. But other than that, he can really only blame his arm for not throwing as hard as it used to.
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Off the top of my head, the best I can come up with is the Matt Holliday trade for CarGo and Huston Street. Holliday was 29 and CarGo had been a number 22 prospect before the 2008 season. Billy Beane made that deal, and Holliday had just one year left before free agency.
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Well as I’m sure you realize that more supports my point than not.
This is one of many cases where I’d love to be wrong. But even if I am, it IMO likely won’t be one of the three guys on your list. Just can’t see any of those organizations making that kind of move.
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Fortunately, the Phils don’t have to trade Lee. If I am not blown away by an offer, I don’t trade him. I would try to move Lee again during the off-season when there are more potential buyers.
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Yeah, I don’t think we’re really disagreeing much.
I would, however, take a guy like Pederson, not elite but a step below, still major league ready & able to fill a current hole on the club. Don’t really see that happening either, but IMO within the realm of the possible (it helps that LA isn’t Boston/St. Louis/Texas in terms of FO quality).
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He gets you .5 impact prospects.
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Larry is right, lee gets you nothing of value. who wants lee , if your a team like the braves, do you give up anything for lee no way , the yankees give you nothing of value, boston might trade you workman even up for lee if you pay all lee salary,only maybe a team who is trying to win a championship might give up a prospect for lee, if you pay all his contract for three years, the stats tell you lee isnt very good,
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“the stats tell you lee isn’t very good?”
What????? You mean like the low ERA, or the historically great strikeout-to-walk ratio. What statistics are you talking about?
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That was sarcasm from roccom.
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Gosh, I hope so!
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Papelbon might not be as good as he used to be, but look at the alternatives? It’s still hard for me to believe that they can have so many hard throwers, but NONE can throw strikes. Maybe a new pitching coach could help?
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