In February, had I asked you to fill in the blanks on the following sentence: “By July 25, Larry Greene will have twice as many ____ as ____.”, how many of you would have said stolen bases and homeruns, respectively? Be honest.
The story of the night, clearly, is Austin Wright. A fine line for him – 1 R on 4H, (1HR), 3BB and 10K. Jason Guarente at The Reading Eagle has some insight as to what helped Wright on Wednesday. If Wright can have success with a three-pitch mix, he’s got a much better chance to stick as a starter. We’ll see how his newest offering holds up.
Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.
http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130725
Phuture Phillies 
The “Good Phillipe Aumont” showed up last night … (back to the oxymoron discussions, is this one???) … 12 pitches, 10 strikes and 2 Ks in one inning pitched
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And hit a batter just to remind us that the bad is still within.
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Tom, has he changed his mechanics and delivery like the Phillies wanted? If so he has too much talent to waste in AAA so lets see how it goes with the Phillies again. You would hope the light bulb goes on sometime soon like with Dom Brown.
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The problem that Dubee pointed out is that he refuses to listen. The coaches give him advice, and he just goes out on the mound and does what he feels comfortable doing. Hopefully it changes, but it doesn’t sound like he’s amenable to making the necessary adjustments.
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Mike, the problem is that he has too much talent to just get rid of him with the MLB shortage of good relievers. Thats what I meant about the “light going on” with Aumont because if he ever gets it the Phillies will have a quality reliever.
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I’m with you … no way I’m giving up on an arm like Aumont. It’s just frustrating to have such unrealized potential amid accusations that he is actively ignoring advice that could make him better.
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Or there’s Aumont’s side, which is that the coaches in the majors and at AAA are telling him different things, and he’s not sure which to do. Somehow they need to get on the same page.
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Maybe it is the language barrier. Maybe we need a Canadian translator to get through to him….
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I don’t know if this was a serious comment, but he is from Quebec, where they speak French.
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Eh?
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Assuming we’ve all played before, and had coaches scream that if we just made this one change, that we would see massive improvements (with me, it was to swing with my hands), I tend to think the frustration between Dubee and Aumont is that Dubee is telling him to change something about his mechanics that Aumont, for whatever reason, is unable to put into practice because he naturally doesn’t understand the bio-mechanics of what is being asked of him.
if i had to guess (and purely speculating), the issue is with his weight distribution. Ever since I first saw Aumont, I thought his weight distribution as he progresses through his wind-up is uneven and leads to poor balance, and ultimately, an inconsistent release point. However, I have coached a couple kids with the same rudimentary problem, and the fact of the matter is posture, weight distribution, and ultimately balance, is largely innate.
Just a theory, and with Aumont’s physical charactaristics, I still think it would be a shame if we gave up on him. Much as Randy Johnson needed a long time to harness the stuff (and in no way, comparing their ultimate ceilings), so could Aumont.
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Dubee refers to it as ‘lengthening out’:
“He believes in what he’s doing is going to work. You need belief in what you’re doing, but at the same time I think there’s more upside if he gets lengthened out a little bit. I don’t mind headstrong guys. If you don’t believe in what you’re doing, you’re not going to be successful. On the other hand, you have to have some self evaluation to see what’s working and what isn’t working.”
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/Rich-Dubee-critical-of-demoted-pitcher-Phillippe-Aumont.html#cWi81ZUygVQlhEbZ.99
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Maybe try yelling at him in German…that usually gets a Frenchman to do what you want.
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Auchtung!
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That is the great thing about this site. You get some baseball talk, as well as some historical humor. Nicely done
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Greene still sporting a sub .100 ISO and a 33% K rate. Bigger bust than Hewitt.
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Hewitt was the 24th overall pick and sported a 34/2.8 K/BB rate as a 21-year-old during his first season in Lakewood. Greene went 15 picks later and has a 33.6/12/7 K/BB rate while a year younger during his first season at Lakewood. I’ll not argue that LGJ is flirting with bust status, but he’s far more advanced than Hewitt was at the same level.
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Disagree. the only plus tool Greene was supposed to have is completely negated by his lack of a hit tool. Hewitt at least can play a decent OF.
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Hewitt had 19 errors as a RF last season
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The real test for Greene will be repeating Lakewood next year. If he duplicates the ISO and K rates while repeating Lakewood then we have a problem. Plenty of red flags for Larry this season but I don’t think his lack of success is comparable to Hewitt’s.
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The only test for Greene is if he can show up in shape next year. If that does not happen then we can just ignore him until he does. If he shows up in shape then i think we can discount his starts the last 2 years to growing up mentally.
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I think that a great plan.
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What are the chances Green repeats next year? Who else may join him in Lakewood?
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He could repeat, but I think it’s more likely he goes to Clearwater based on the improvements he’s made since the beginning of the season. He’s raised his average by 50 points since early June, and his slugging has gone up 80 points during that time. His walk rate is good, even if the Ks and inadequate display of power are a concern. In a perfect world he repeats, but if it were between him and Tocci, I’d keep the young centerfielder in Lakewood.
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Greene does not deserve a promotion and I’d keep him in Lakewood as motivation.
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As bad as he’s been, there are five players in today’s Lakewood box score who have lower batting averages than Greene, and he’s only one point behind Walding (who has a lower walk rate, lower ISO and a K-rate that, while not as high as Greene’s, is still over 25 percent). The org sent a message by keeping him in XST for the start of the year. He sucked at the beginning but has played better over the past two months. I see the point of making him repeat, but I think a strong argument for promotion can also be made.
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I don’t really disagree, but the really problematic aspect of his performance – and this has NOT been getting better – is the lack of power. We’re not talking a guy who is (say) displaying mid-range power instead of plus power. We’re talking about a guy who has 3 HR and a ..092 ISO. Greene is twelfth in SLG on the Lakewood roster.
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I agree 100 percent. It hasn’t even flashed in nearly two seasons. So I guess the question is, does a repeat make it suddenly appear? I’m not so sure.
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Greene is putting up very similar numbers against RHP as he did last year. He’s getting killed by LHP (.131/.215/.202).
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The batting average is meaningless, he’s barely getting by despite a very high BABIP. He has a giant hole in his bat.
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Coming into camp in shape and ready to play in 2014 should all but absolve him of his 2013 conditioning problem. It will then depend then on whether they like what they see now and in instructs and in camp. He’s on the fence, I think, and I doubt they’ve made a decision on his 2014 at this point. Seems premature to do so, as we don’t know what kind of spring he might be primed for if he follows his off-season conditioning and learns something out of instructs.
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I will take it one step further… He comes into ST in the best shape of his life and follows it up w/ a very good performance in ’14 (800+ OPS at Lakewood). If he can’t, cut him. We can find more motivated and better players just about anywhere.
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Nice line for Cozens and Green … three doubles between the two to go with zero K’s.
Franco is coming back to earth somewhat in Reading. He’s hitting .300 in his last 10, but with only one XBH. (Yes, the fact that hitting .300 in his last ten is ‘coming back to earth’ is duly noted as an excellent sign). Perhaps we start seeing more of the patience he showed in Clearwater now that the ball is shrinking from grapefruit sized to perhaps an orange.
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haha – not laughing at you just that you posted it and then Franco had a big night 2 hrs, 5 rbis. Looks like he’s had some 0 fers lately which is going to happen. Hard to believe he’s already got 31 games there under his belt. Seems like yesterday everyone was asking when he was going to move up to Reading.
Dugan is contrasting . He has a 1.036 ops the last ten games. They will go hot and cold to some extent but moving up and still in the same ballpark of what you were doing is a good sign although I am still perplexed about Franco’s swing.
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drew anderson leading that williamsport staff, another 5 quality inn, no earned runs, 5 k’s, good story by a late round pick
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keeps putting together quality starts. Not sure of his upside.
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I was just trying to start something.
Thanks.
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I’m guessing I missed something as my post was deleted and it seems like other people mentioned the same thing after I did..?
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Hey, two in a row. Nifty.
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hey Brad, you messed up “insight” above. Don’t know if you were made aware of it.
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Whoa, hang on…lemme look into that.
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Denton Keys, got into the game today. 1inning, 0er, 1K.
J.P.Crawaford with 3 walks, zero Ks.
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Crawford is also 2 for 3 in addition to the walks. Sure, Crawford needs to refine the little things, but, man, I literally cannot remember the last Phillies blue chip prospect who did this well out of the gate. It bodes very, very well for his future. Again, when I see the lines this guy puts up and hear the descriptions of his conduct and his game, I get a “Jeterish” feel to him. Very, very impressive. Will probably start next season in Lakewood.
Speaking of impressive, has anyone gotten a load of Adrelton Simmons’ defensive numbers? Through about 95 games he’s played to a 3.2 DEFENSIVE WAR and the numbers were similar last year in more limited playing time. These are historically great numbers – similar to the numbers Ozzie Smith and Mark Belanger put up. Wow! He also has tremendous upside at the plate – I could easily see him developing into a superstar and, heck, he’s pretty much a star right now.
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Whats Rollins career def war?
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Per rWAR, 13.4, which is quite good.
Fangraphs does not use dWAR. They have him as 40.7 defensive runs above average, which is about 4 wins above average. If you could convert that to dWAR, it would be considerably higher, probably in the range of the rWAR total.
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Catch – and to think that Belanger had a guy named Brooks Robinson to his right.
Agree with respect to Crawford. It’s difficult not to get excited as he appears to be a cut above his current level of competition. I’d be absolutely shocked if he didn’t start next season with Lakewood.
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YOU ARE JOKING RIGHT?? 282 obp. galvis can do that and field as well.
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Galvis is not in Simmons league defensively. On the scouting scale Simmons has 8 glove and 8 arm. He is the best defensive short stop in the major leagues with no one really close. (BTW Galvis is a wizard with the glove and is more in the 7/7 range glove/arm, but has been playing more 6/7)
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What strikes me about Andrelton Simmons….if the vitals are correct…he is only 10 lbs heavier then Carlos Tocci. Both same height. And he has 11HRs and 24 XBHs this year.
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Not to pile on, but, in addition to the large defensive advantage that Simmons has over Galvis, Simmons has been a somewhat better hitter and is likely to be so going forward. The biggest difference (as hitters) between the two players is solidly in Simmons’ favor, 9% K rate versus 17.3% K rate.
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Here’s a video of Severino Gonzalez pitching a couple weeks back. Love that slider, and his fastball sits at 90-92 pretty easy with a lot of movement (comes back on a RH). I didn’t see a change-up thrown in this sequence, but rumor is it has the potential to be a ML average pitch: http://vimeo.com/70800656
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Therien pitched terrific again today. Check out all his starts. He’s either been very good or god awful with nothing in between. What would cause that great of a difference?
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appearances, not starts…
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Mechanical Issues perhaps. Lack of consistency in his mechanics probably affects his control and hence the swings in performance
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Larry Greene after 627 PAs @A level—–.252/.351/.353/.704,(mediocre) – ISO-.101,(poor) K%-30, (poor) BB%-13 (good)
With his age and size , he is now at his peak value. Phillies need to include him in any package deal if it means getting some addtional return.
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LOL! He’s worth nothing, so they might as well keep him.
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Some GM could be allured by his dimensions and potential. In two years, if he show no improvement, especially in hte POWER tool, then he falls into the ‘bust’ category.
Dang, this Phillies management organization is depressing.
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Stark’s column..
•An exec who speaks frequently with the Phillies says they have talked a lot with the Padres about a deal that could send Luke Gregerson and an outfielder to Philadelphia for a package of young players. However, the Phillies appear to be looking for deals that wouldn’t require parting with their most advanced prospects. Earlier today, we heard that Gregerson is drawing significant interest.
•Gregerson also appears to be at the top of the list for the Tigers. However, it’s going to take at least one big league-ready young player who projects as an immediate contributor for the Padres, in part because Gregerson is under club contro. this makes me sick. more young prospects gone,
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As long as the prospects they’re giving up are not named Franco, Biddle or JP Crawford… who cares. That’s what prospects are for.
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Ruben is well-liked throughout the league by all the other GMs. Since they know he does not try to fleece anyone. That is noteworthy.
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I’m not sure that, as a GM, I’d want to be known as the gift that keeps giving.
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+1
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He fleeced Cleveland for Cliff Lee.
He fleeced Texas for John Mayberry Jr
He fleeced the Astros for Oswalt and 11 million dollars
And it looked like he fleeced Minnesota out of Ben Revere, before he fouled the ball off his foot.
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Really the only bad trade he’s made has been the Pence deal. It was a doosy however.
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Despite being an Amaro critic, I will give him credit where credit is due, and some credit is due for these moves. But, while there were all good deals for the Phillies:
(1) and (3) – to my mind, these were typical deals for veterans – that is, getting impact prospects for veterans is the exception not the rule. Both of these deals looked at the time fair for both sides. It’s true the prospects didn’t pan out, but that’s the norm. Lee’s trade history should almost by itself refute the notion that, if a team fails to get an impact prospect in return for a veteran, it has been “fleeced.”
(2) A trade for two going nowhere prospects that ended up working out for the Phillies. Absolutely give Amaro credit for that, but fleeced is too strong a word.
(4) As your wording implies, way too soon to evaluate this one.
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Matt Gelb was on Keith Law’s podcast talking Phillies trades the other day. He mentioned that something Amaro doesn’t get credit for is the evaluation of his own system. Thus far, none of the prospects he’s traded have come back to bite him. The more recent trades might, but the older ones have not in the least
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I don’t think he fleeced Cleveland for Oswalt. Even if Gose’s prospect star has dimmed, he was a good get in that trade for Houston and Villar might end up as a starting SS for somebody. Oswalt did a nice job for the Phillies, especially the rest of that season, but it’s not like he’s sustained greatness since the trade.
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If the trade would have been for just Oswalt, I would agree. But he gave Houston 3 2nd tier prospects for Oswalt AND Houston paid his salary. That is significant.
Amaro hasn’t given up a prospect that has done a thing, yet, and he has been trading guys by the bushel for 4 years. His trade history no worse than any other GM. Just lazy parrot speak from dimwits.
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I agree that his trade history has been acceptable on the balance, but please do not tell me that you think he’s done a good job as the general manager – with one of the highest payrolls in baseball and with a clamoring fan base he’s presided over the dramatic downward trajectory of the team. He has most assuredly NOT done a good job as GM. And that’s not lazy parrot speak. I think even a so-called dimwit can see that Amaro is, at best far below average as a GM.
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Well, his trade history is what was called out, and that is where I replied. Sorry if I insulted anyone.
If you are criticizing his trade history, you are either uninformed, or you just mimicking nonsense that you’ve heard, without thinking. Amaro has made one (1) terrible trade (Lee to Seattle) and one(1) that can be questioned (Pence), but is not nearly as bad as the conversation it generates.
Now, if you say he has a bad history with free agent signings, you won’t get a contrary word out of me. I gave up on him when he signed Papelbon for 50milllion.
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Agree. The trades he has made , on the whole, have not been as bad as one would think.
Trouble, his free agent signings, andcontract extensions , along with trades, all get lumped together.
I still think he will be moved out before 2015. And also assuming Charlie is moved out before the 2014 season.
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+1
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They are young , Villar is up now, so is Cosart. its starting. Remember these were young kids, and are still young. He misjudge pence so bad, that I would have fired him just on that trade, He screw up on workman over 75000 and he is up with the redsox, He has added great players in the offseason like nix. adams, valdez, and the rest of that veteran junk in the bullpen. His scout told him to take greene in the draft, who has one tool. how can you pick a one tool player that high. He has failed to talk ownership into spending in latin market, and in the draft. the dimwits are right he stinks, you are basing you opinion on guys who are just getting ready to help at the big league level, singleton alone will make him look like the a@@ he is. Dont know how you can make that statement about the kids he gave up. when they are just starting there careers. The lee trade for marston,donald, was good.
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Amaro wasn’t the GM when they failed to sign the ‘Hall of fame’ bound Workman.
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Heck, I’m just mad at him. Agreed that he often gets the better of other teams in trades, although he got hosed in the Pence deal and Larry called that one on the spot. That’s not his biggest problem. The problem is the overall management of the organization and the talent flow, among many other things. Even if the trades are good in isolation, a strategy where you continually trade virtually all of your best prospects while overpaying aging players is not one designed for long-term success. You need a fair balance of younger players, mid career players, and older players. Amaro does not “get” (or is in denial of) the aging curve. At a time when he should have had his eye on the future, he was trading away the future to secure a better today. And such an approach is fine at times, but not every single year.
Amaro also has a more fundamental problem – he, from all appearances, does not understand what it takes to build a good offense and is not only in denial as to advanced metrics, he looks to be hostile to what are now pretty common analytical tools, the tools even us bone heads who casually follow the game know pretty well. He devalues walks. What baseball professional in 2013 devalues walks? It’s insane, but the results are predicatable – he has aging, crappy hitting teams who don’t get on base and don’t score runs. Yet the results seem to surprise him, which is equally shocking.
At some point, I’m going to write a longer and better written post detailing the failings of the Amaro administration, but I just don’t have time now to do it justice. Suffice it to say that the decline of this team has been inexcusable and unnecessary. I’ll probably renew my partial season ticket plan next year, but I won’t due so gleefully as I did in 2010 and 2011 as the has not only gotten worse, they’ve become virtually unwatchable at times. Thank you Mr. Amaro for _ucking up my team and thank you even more for making the games as exciting as Sixer games. Thank you so very, very much.
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“At some point, I’m going to write a longer and better written post detailing the failings of the Amaro administration”
Catch – I’m not sure a more detailed post is necessary. Isn’t it enough to merely mention a front office who practices willful blindness of advanced metrics? For shock value you can finish with the ‘I don’t care about walks’ statement. You could say all that you need to in one or two lines.
And let’s remember that trades account for only a small portion of the active roster. It’s not the trades that have me bothered, its the overall construction of the roster. Some of the benches that this guy has put together over the past 2-3 years are downright laughable.
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very well said.
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Oh by the way catch22hman…we need your money before December 2nd, 2013 for next season’s tickets. Have a nice holidays.
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Maybe you should not post when you are angry as you seem to forget Amaro is just carrying out the owners orders. This process has been going on since the Bill Giles group bought the team in 1983, man do I miss the Carpenters as the owners.
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Ruly and the group were not as great as you would think. Juts look at the years between mid-fifties throu mid-seventies, other then ’64.
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Disagree in your response as the Phillies were one of the first teams to develop Latin/South America Baseball Academies (actually signed Julio Franco and Juan Samuel first and spent money on players I agree with you on the elder Carpenter but I think Ruly had some original ideas. It is too bad the strike of 1981 really turned them against owning a professional baseball team.
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the halladay trade wasn’t bad, either. d’arnaud might be the only guy who becomes a regular in that deal, and he’s always hurt.
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Jon Daniels is exactly crying about losing Mayberry (Golson).
And Ed Wade actually helpd the ‘Stros with the addition of Villar.
And lets let Trevor May’s day play out.
Carassco was an initial injury, and Knapp, well that happens.
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Be serious. Villar almost has almost no chance to cover the 11 million that Houston gave back, in that deal. If Amaro traded any current non-top 5 prospect for 11million dollars, it would be a win.
Also, Trevor May stinks and Worely was a mirage for a couple guys here who don’t know any better.
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‘Villar almost has almost no chance to cover the 11 million’ – with that logic every year the Yankees and Red Sox do not win the WorldSeries, their seasons were abject failures.
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Trevor May’s a 23 yr old in AA who’s pitching fairly well, which means he’s probably a B- prospect. He doesn’t stink at all.
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Trevor May is a 23 year old who has repeated nearly every level in the minor leagues.
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I would add Morgan and Tocci to that list. Selling short on them for a relief pitcher would be bad.
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Man, if the Phillies part with any more prospects to get a middle reliever, it’s just going to set them back farther. Honestly, I know the powers that be love Ruben, but don’t kid yourself, they see what’s happened and they still listen to Pat Gillick and Gillick has long been critical of Ruben’s “acquire the player you want at all costs” philosophy. Trading young prospects for Gregerson (I bet Roman Quinn ends up in such a deal) would be the height of stupidity. But stupid is as Ruben does.
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I would certainly not be happy if they paid a high price for Gregerson. Two things to keep in mind:
(1) The rest of the article puts this in much better context. I won’t cut and paste, but click through and you will be reassured.
(2) While I would not pay a high price for Gregerson, he’s not just a rental. They would have him for 2014 as well.
(3) Also might make Papelbon expendable; Gregerson hasn’t closed but probably could.
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If I thought getting Gregorson would make them more likely to get rid of Papelbon, I would support the notion even more.
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yea, I’ve thought about that quite a bit. Bring in Gregerson, ship out Papelbon. Hopefully, the return for Pap would equal the cost for Gregerson. And he’s owed a lot less money
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Gregerson’s K % is down and his FB velocity is down, per Fangraphs. Paul Boye mentioned today he’s among the leaders in relief appearances or relief IP the last 4 years. Not the kind of relief arm I’d be looking at.
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When they say OFer, what kind of OFer are they talking? One that isn’t as good as Gregerson, so the name isn’t mentioned? Minor or major leaguer? Perhaps Carlos Quentin. Quentin would be a very RAJ acquisition but if he was the name you’d think he’d be the headliner. Or would it be a AAAA OF in the Padres system like Dan Robertson
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Gregerson’s Home/Away splits are quite dramatic. As far as OF is concerned, they have Amarista who can play center and of course Maybin who is about to begin another rehab assignment. Denorfia and Venable can also play center. Not sure if any of those four are better than Mayberry though.
Huston Street is probably the guy you want from S.D., if any. Street would allow us to move Paps or he can serve as setup man. He has a $7mil team option for next year.
I can’t help but wonder if the Pods would move Street and Maybin in order to shed salary. Their FO has to be unhappy with the Maybin extension which has another 3yrs and $21mil remaining.
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Any word on LAA’s Ryan Madson’s current condition?
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Madson just started throwing from a mound and he may miss the 2013 season.
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MLB has a new top 100 ranking. biddle is 46 and franco is 54.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130726&content_id=54258374&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
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Franco and Dugan both go deep in the 1st inning tonight.
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Phillies sign Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez for 50 million. Can’t be called cheap now.
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