Box Score Recap – 7/23/2013

Box Score Recap

Very nice line from Ethan Martin -2H, 3BB, 6K in 6 scoreless innings, threw 65 of his 100 pitches for strikes. That’s what he needs to do, more or less, every time out for the rest of the year to prove to me that he’s a viable candidate to be a starter. The couple walks I can live with. A couple more hits, a couple runs? Fine. But if the strike rate is in the mid 60s, it means he’s not living outside the zone, which is all but an impossibility for a starting pitcher. That’s what I’ll continue to look for.

3-5, 2 HR for Cody Ashce. I would love to see him up in the bigs in a couple days, platooning with Kevin Frandsen or not. If the team moves Michael Young, hopefully that’s the play, though Freddy Galvis playing every day at 3B might be the club’s preferred option.

Elsewhere, Kelly Dugan 2-3 with a double, (off Top 50 guy Noah Syndergaard). Jesse Biddle couldn’t get out of the first inning. Brody Colvin came in with the bases loaded and allowed 1 runner to score, but then worked a solid 4.1 innings. Chris Serritella with a ninth inning, 2 out, full count HR to send the game into extras after Colt Murray couldn’t hold the 1-1 tie in the ninth. A fine start from Shane Martin to lead Williamsport to victory. And Jesus Chavez, strike-throwing lefty, continues to torch the VSL. I would expect him stateside next year after 66 K and just 6 BB in 66 IP so far. Any way you do the math, that’s pretty good stuff. 

Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.

http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130723

7-23-13 boxscores

110 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 7/23/2013”

    1. He struck out and hit a ground ball single to right field. That very well could have been a dribbler for all we know.

      Not sure if worth noting or not, but just pointing it out.

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  3. Cameron Perkins is 0 for his last 9 and has only one hit in his last 20 ABs. The BABIP appears to be normalizing (.335). It will be interesting to see how he responds to these struggles.

    Tough game for Biddle.

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    1. BABIP looks to be part of it but not all- he’s not putting the ball in play as much either. His K% in April and May were both right around 12%, and so far in July for Clearwater it’s 19%.

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    2. I wonder if Perkins is healthy or playing hurt. He broke his wrist and his numbers make me question whether he’s really healthy.

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  4. I get a little bit more high on Kelly Dugan every day. He struggled a bit after the promotion, which is absolutely expected. His last ten games … .359/.419/.538

    Pretty impressive. So nice to see we have some potential help for this year (Asche) and next (Franco/Dugan). This is something we have not been accustomed to from the position player ranks.

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    1. In nearly 1,300 professional plate appearances, Dugan has an OPS of .821. (Dom Brown’s career minors OPS: .834). He is a high pick who, after some early injury struggles and a failed switch-hitting experiment, has shown an ability to hit for average, some power, and draws walks. The only concern is the K rate. Otherwise, I can’t think of a more under-the-radar prospect in the system right now.

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      1. He also has a career minor league BABIP of .372.

        I’ll be curious to see how he handles the higher levels, especially if his BABIP normalizes.

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        1. But with that big of a sample size I think the BABIP may be reflective of a line drive hitter that regulalry hits the ball hard.

          I also like the comments form his managers and Phillies brass about how hard he works and studies hitting….

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          1. They had him as a switch hitter from when he was drafted through 2011. He started hitting exclusively LH at the start of 2012.

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    3. One thing that’s nice to see from Dugan is that he’s crushing LHP. He had a .946 OPS against lefties in Clearwater and although his sample in Reading is very small he’s only K’d twice in 15 PAs against them. Why was he switch hitting again?

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  5. If Young is moved, and Asche is promoted, do they move Franco up to AAA or allow him to keep mashing at AA?

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    1. You keep him in AA if for no other reason than he needs reps and plenty of them at that level before going to AAA. There is no need to rush him and mess with his development. He should finish out the year in AA and go to AAA next year for all or at least most of the season. That’ll help him work on the noted issues in his swing that advanced pitchers will exploit.

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      2. I think you’re flat out wrong to imply that he’s learning anything in AA right now that will help him refine his swing. He’s gotta fail for that to happen, and the only way that works is if you push him to a level where that occurs. Most scouts think he won’t be exposed until the major leagues. Once the Phillies decide the season is over, Asche’ starts for the Phillies and Franco goes to AAA to see if he flounders. If come July of next year, he’s still destroying AAA, you move him to the majors. It’s really that simple.

        Sorry, came off a little aggressive, I actually value your opinion as an individual poster on here, we just disagree on this one 🙂

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        1. I see where you’re coming from but he’s actually scuffling a little bit right now and he’ll have to adjust once he starts seeing clubs again as they’ll have better scouting on him. He really hasn’t had that many ABs in AA yet (120 so far) so getting reps is important right now for him. It would be a mistake to promote him too quickly like that.

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  6. It tells you all you need to know about Martin that walking 3 in 6 IP is a good control day for him.

    To put that into perspective, 4.5 BB/9 would be 4th worst among qualified pitchers in mlb.

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    1. Just convert him to relief and move on…he’d make a pretty good reliever…maybe even an 8th/9th inning guy in a couple years. His command issues are far less of an issue in relief.

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      1. Too early to give up on him as a starter. Some people click later … he may never get it,but if he does, the value is astronomically higher as a starter than a reliever.

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        1. It wouldn’t necessarily be giving up on him. Plenty of teams bring guys up as relievers and convert them back to the rotation if they do well in relief. Adam Wainwright is a great example of this. However, he has the stuff right now to be a good reliever and we have one of the worst bullpens in the Majors.

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    2. I think Brad’s point is that if Martin can consistently throw 65% of his pitches for strikes, the walks will come down.

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      1. That was part of it, yes. He may give up a couple more hits and probably walk a few less guys, but the control that will keep him consistent as a starter would be evident if he’s throwing around 2/3 for strikes.

        If the big club winds up fully in the playoff hunt, I wouldn’t be opposed to calling him up now and use him in the pen unless/until he falters badly. He can go back to starting for his off-season routine and come to camp ready to stretch out again in 2014.

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  7. Age 23 in AAA:
    Utley: .352 / .461 / .813
    Asche: .350 / .463 / .813

    Admittedly Asche has a higher BABIP and plays an easier position.

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    1. That’s a great comp there actually…love it. I’m pretty conservative on Cody Asche, more so than most but I’m starting to believe he might be a decent everyday 3B at the MLB level. I don’t see him as a star but as a nice complimentary player or, at worst, a starter on a 2nd division club.

      The most annoying/disgusting part of that was that Utley played another full season in AAA after that before breaking into the everyday lineup in the Majors. Because god forbid we eat David Bell’s salary and then move Polly to 3B. It seriously hurts his HOF chances too as he lost out on a full year of rate stats at Age 24 and half of his Age 25 season actually. Just stupid roster management by Ed Wade. His disciple Rube seems to have learned the worst aspects of that though.

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        1. Probably not. Howard’s big breakout season was his age 24 year at AA in 2004. He was called up mid-way through his age 25 season from AAA. So at best (unless you’re calling him up from Clearwater in 2003, which would have been ill-advised), the Phils could have called him up from Reading in 2004, giving him one extra year in the big leagues than he actually received. Even if he’d amassed his greatest single-season home run output during that extra year (58 HR), his career total right now would stand at 369. I don’t see Ryan Howard hitting 131 more home runs over the rest of his career at his current pace.

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      1. It would significantly increase his value….his bat plays up far more as a 2B. A shame he simply cannot handle the position defensively.

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      2. He still may be … I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t send him to Arizona or winter ball to try getting some reps there. Joe Jordan has said that they tried him at 2B because they didn’t think he’d be able to play third, and when they realized he had chops at 3B, they put him there and he’s stuck. That doesn’t tell me he failed at 2B so much as he ended up being more comfortable at third. His numbers weren’t great at 2B (.950 fielding percentage, I believe), but it wouldn’t hurt to try him out again at some point now that he’s more comfortable as a professional hitter.

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        1. The reports were that he simply didn’t have the range or the hands to play 2B…they’d obviously rather have him at 2B than 3B given the innate value being able to handle 2B has over 3B.

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          1. Surprisingly (to me), both FG and BR see little difference in value between 2B and 3B. FG uses the same positional adjustment for 2B/3B/CF (based on Tom Tango’s work), and BR says 2B is about 1 run more valuable over the course of 150 games.

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            1. I don’t have a problem with .280 and 15-18 HR from the 3B, which is where I’d anticipate Asche settling. The problem is that once Franco does arrive — and he’s little more than a year away at this point — Asche has nowhere to go except maybe a corner OF position, where the offensive output would be far less attractive.

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      3. I’m not entirely sure that experiment is over. They are going to have an issue on their hands once Franco gets to AAA. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Asche taking reps at second in winter ball and ST at some point. But for now, third base is just fine, thanks. I saw the Asche homers on MILB.tv he really smashed both of those shots. Now that he is getting an opportunity to “consolidate” his skills at a level for more than few months, we’re getting a decent idea of how good this guy might be.

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        1. I agree catch. I think most would agree that Asche’s ceiling has only been raised since the start of the season, even if not significantly so. For me, his performance this year is confirmation of last season’s which left many of us scratching our heads. Something was amiss during his first year of pro ball, but whatever it was he has clearly overcome it.

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          1. Lots of guys struggle in their first season in Williamsport for a variety of reasons:

            1. Very pitcher friendly league with a bunch of 4 year college seniors who know how to pitch even if they have low ceilings
            2. Conversion to wooden bats is rough on some.
            3. Pro ball is a different beast than college.

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          2. Ceiling can change if the player changes in a fundamental and unpredictable way. The things that pop to mind are a change in pitching mechanic (dropping slot can turn a journeyman into a LOOGY), the addition of a new pitch (Kendrick’s changeup), a major swing overhaul (one that changes the overall hit and power profile, Tyson Gillies), or position change (not a move down the spectrum but something like Pullin’s move from LF to 2B). These are things that you cannot predict because they are caused by outside sources. Ceiling is determined by their current physical factors, if you change the tool profile by introducing a new skill you change the factors. If you say there is no change to ceiling then we do away with ceiling.

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        2. Hey catch did he hit the homeruns, on down and in pitches?? I have seen him mostly on saturdays on tv. and he seems to have trouble with down and in., which most lefthanders crush.

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          1. I didn’t pay that close attention, but I think they were middle/outside. The last shot was to dead left centerfield. He has legit opposite field power. It was surprising.

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            1. thanks catch. I never get to see him in person. only on tv and its hard to really judge his performance for me at the plate.

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    4. Man this drives me crazy. Why can’t we just be happy with how well Asche is doing without, once again, bringing up this tired and misleading comp?

      To briefly summarize why it’s a useless comp – it’s not primarily relatively minor factors such as “higher BABIP and plays an easier position.” No comp is perfect, and you’ll always have some of those differences. It’s that Utley’s development from what he was in AAA is – not just highly unusual – but almost unprecedented. The comp tells you NOTHING about what Asche might become. I mean, yes I guess you could argue that it tells you that there is SOME small chance he could become a near HOF player, but one of the wonderful things about baseball is that virtually every real prospect has SOME small chance of that happening.

      Is is a stupid comp that IMO is an insult to both players.

      Asche’s season has confirmed his prospect status. Unlike the industry consensus, which is still skeptical that he can be a first division regular, I think he can be – and have thought so for some time. Maybe even a bit more than that. (IMO whether can be an above average, as opposed to average, regular third baseman, is partly a function of just how good his defense is; opinions about his defense seem to be all over the map, from adequate to plus.) That’s great. That would justify top 100 status, maybe even top 50. But let’s leave the Utley comps alone.

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      1. To be clear, I think we ALWAYS should be very cautious with comps to the minor league performances of players of Utley’s caliber. We should be more so when the player in question exceeds his perceived ceiling to the extent that Utley did. .352 / .461 / .813 in AAA as a 23 year old – even a 23 year old college kid – is quite good, indicative of prospect status, but not special in t he greater scheme of things.

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      2. Larry, I think I get what you’re saying. He’s definitely more of a better version of Mike Schmidt than Chase Utley:

        22 at AA:
        Asche: .300/.360/.513
        Schmidt: .211/.302/.350

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        2. This is an unfair comparison. Mike Schmidt’s power was directly associated with his mustache, which he did not have in the minors and during his rookie year. With the mustache came HOF numbers.

          Which brings me to my point: Cody Asche needs a mustache.

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  8. Why is no one mentioning the crap game Biddle pitched?—guess I just did. Seriously, if it was any other starting pitcher in our minor league system people would be all over it….”is he injured”, “”has he lost it”……guess he gets a pass for being so good all the other times. But, I do wonder what happened. Hope he doesn’t have a recurrent case of whooping cough or something.

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        1. Yes, it’s so a young guy doesn’t put too much stress on his arm with the theory being it lowers their overall injury risk. However, given the large number of our prospects and former pitching prospects that have had major arm issues, I don’t know how effective it really is….

          Drabek
          Carrasco
          Knapp
          Outman
          Worley
          Happ
          etc
          etc

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            1. I know…I’m just pointing out that it doesn’t really seem to matter as with pitching prospects, guys seemingly either get injured or don’t no matter how teams try to protect their arms.

              Don’t get me wrong, I’d much rather they try to protect them than have them throwing 150 pitches an outing but I’m somewhat fatalistic about it actually mattering.

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            2. It may. To prove that, you would need to examine Philly pitcher injuries to the baseball average.

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    2. With Biddle, its getting to the point where he is completely terrible every 4th-5th outing. Very worrisome on his overall development to say the least.

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      1. Still, its the minors and that’s what they’re for. As long as he’s learning something from his failures and hopefully working on stuff in those games, its all good. I think it does illustrate why his ceiling is more #3 starter than #1. Nothing wrong with that though.

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        1. He had whooping cough or something like that earlier in the year and essentially pitched through his recovery. Wouldn’t surprise me to learn his conditioning is lacking after something like that. He probably wasn’t working out nearly as hard as he would have otherwise, and now that it’s long days and hot nights on the hill, I could see it.

          Not sure if that’s got anything to do with it, but a possible explanation.

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          1. With young pitchers, the strike zone can suddenly disappear (I write that as the father of a HS pitcher). But, heck, I’ve seen that happen with MLB pitchers. It’s not productive for people to watch box scores and either fret or rejoice over individual starts. The internet is probably the worst things that ever happened to MILB pitchers. Jesse knows that he has to improve the consistency of his location. He doesn’t need reminding by us.

            On the other hand, folks should note that the last batter he faced, before he ran up against the pitch limit, was a strikeout, so he was starting to figure himself out last night.

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  9. I think its important to keep in mind that Biddle wont be 22 until October and hes AA. I think its good that he suffers some adversity. It wont be until this time next year that you even think to bring him up to the big club. Didnt Shelby Miller have some big time problems with his last year or two befor making it to the bigs?? We all saw what he is capable of last night.
    Time to dump Young ASAP and call up Asche.
    Yanks started Brent Lilibridge at 3rd last night…….

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    1. I think and its just my opinion. Its hard to judge these kids sometimes. Because they might be working on a new pitch, or trying to improve a certain pitch, I wasnt there last night so dont know. but have heard kids sometimes will throw a certain pitch a lot in a game, when they are working on things, I have seen this kids stuff, and I believe he is got a two really good pitches right down, his curve and fastball. so i am not too worry about him.

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  11. A good night for Martin, Asche, Cesar, Franco, Dugan, and Z Green. A good prospect night. I’m really ready for Asche to be in Philly… come on RAJ, make it happen.

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  12. Gabriel Lino. Thoughts? He’s only 20. He struggled in the Sally last year but has done pretty well so far in Williamsport. A good candidate to double jump to Clearwater next season?

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    2. Because he was 19 years old and a catcher, I wouldn’t even call what he did at Lakewood “struggling”. A 9.5% walk rate (8% counting his time in Delmarva), manageable K rate and solid line drive rate is pretty good from a guy with his profile.

      That said, I the Phillies must have decided he should go back to W-Port for some reason (defense maybe?), and all the numbers I pointed out above are a little worse this year despite going back a level. His BABIP is way up. I’m not sure what to make of it. He’s still basically age appropriate for the level and he still plays a premium position, so he’s a legit prospect in my eyes. I sort of doubt he’ll start in Clearwater though because Knapp will probably be there.

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      1. I think it’s been said at some point that they were retooling his swing. He’s in a place right now where if they decided to promote him for 5 weeks in Lakewood to see if his new swing holds up, it would be fair to give him reps over Numata, especially when it would seem they plan to play Numata off the bench next year anyway, albeit at A+. I don’t know that they will, but Lino is clearly the better prospect, and to have him in a holding pattern in Lakewood next year seems shortsighted. If by the spring he’s ready for A+, he and Knapp can 50-50 split the catching and get PAs at DH or 1B, (and maybe one or the other isn’t ready in April for A+, or gets hurt, or whatever), but at least test Lino out now at A- to see how he does at the level he just didn’t quite pass last year.

        This probably won’t happen, but I think it should. Get the young man moving.

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        1. Thanks for the info. I would be on board with moving Lino along a little quicker. I’m not sure what’s happened to Numata. His K’s have held steady but his BABIP is under .200 for the last two months and his line drive rate has plummeted. There might still be some potential in him, but Lino seems deserving of the chance to play in Lakewood.

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  13. MattWink….does the Phillies org employ a ‘Throwers10’ program for their minor league pitchers?

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  15. Those who have followed Phillies minor league system for few years. How would you rate this current group mid summer? Are they doing better or worse than you expected?

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  17. Though I did not exactly get off the Asche bandwagon, I did question his hitting vs lefties. Now that he is responding well to that challenge, I am ready to climb back on whole-heartedly.

    The deal is that he really is a good hitter with power developing that should continue as he climbs to and into MLB. His fielding seems more than adequate if not superior; certainly he is worthy of a call-up as soon as RAJ can trade M Young for something that can help short or long term.

    Asche has the same baseball mentality as Utley has had: study and learn and work to improve. His rise so quickly to MLB ready is a tribute to his skills plus work ethic.

    As Utley is traded (soon…following M Young) , Asche will work his way into the same kind of respect that Utley’s carried in Philly…and everywhere else. Again, thanks to the former guru of this site who picked him out as one to watch.

    Future: I see an eventual 25 HR/season in a couple seasons. Along with learning the K zone a little better to lower his K rate.

    Now, I DO see an eventual star player. I hope that he does that at 3rd base with Franco ending up at first base. Howard certainly is on a downhill slide. At some time he should be bought out of his remaining contract…or he may prove to be unplayable as a player and the insurance policy allows him to leave with his $$$s intact. He has become an albatross to the team’s future. Bad deal, made worse by insisting he bring his Ks intact to the box.

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    2. ‘Now, I DO see an eventual star player. I hope that he does that at 3rd base with Franco ending up at first base’-back in EOM May, I mentioned Franco could get a first basemen’s mitt in his hand at some point and was torched on this site.

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      1. I don’t think people’s minds have changed on the point. Not sure why people haven’t jumped on Art for this – personally, I don’t dialog with Art anymore. Nothing personal; our opinions about this stuff are just so ridiculously far apart that it’s not worth debating with each other.

        But I think you’ll find that almost everyone here thinks that the idea of moving Franco to first is still as absurd as it’s ever been (IMO if anything even more absurd). Absent serious defensive limitations, organizations make that kind of move approximately never, because it is by definition irrational.

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        1. Well the only reason why I suggested it was if Ruben and the Gang, in their infinite baseball wisdom, decide that Asche, starting in 2014, is going to be the third baseman for the next 10 years, then what happens to Franco!
          I would hope that Asche is tried at 2nd, but today Jim Salisbury reports that Ruben is talking to Utley’s agent about an extension, I assume 2 years. If it is 2 years, then it gets the time to work Asche into 2nd and Franco moves up playing third.
          Who knows what that GM thinks long-term strategy….he does not believe in Five-year plans nor Walks as production!

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          1. Well you’re not going to get me to defend Amaro in general, but …

            On the first point, I don’t really see even this organization wasting either talent. IMO one of them is ultimately going to be traded, and, unlike tired old veterans, I think we’ll get good value in return.

            On the second point, as you know I’m in favor of an Utley extension. Two years would be perfect. That said, IF Asche could handle the move to second, that is obviously quite a different (and better) idea than moving Franco to first. But that’s a big if. My baseline assumption is that, if they thought he could handle second, they would not have moved him tot third. But I could be wrong about that.

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            1. We seem to get conflicting reports on why Asche was moved to 3B. It could be as simple as organizational need at the time.

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            3. I don’t think we’re getting conflicting reports – we’re not getting much in the way of reports of either kind. . I’m pretty sure that there were no “reports” that he was moved to third because of organizational need. There was speculation on these boards. I THINK that I read that he was moved for defensive reasons. But maybe my mind is playing tricks on me on that second point.

              If so, then the question becomes, in the absence of reports, what should our baseline assumption be? Assuming a reasonably competent organization (and, Amaro aside, I think the Phillies are at least that), the assumption should be that he was moved for defensive reasons.

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            4. I do recall a direct quote from Joe Jordan floating around these boards basically saying that Asche was moved back to third because the organization came to the opinion that Asche could handle third which the organization initial did not think was the case. I will admit that I am dubious on the veracity and source of the quote.

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        2. Now read were Utley’s extension would be around the 3 year $45M area. With possible comps to other 2nd basemen of Pedroia and Scutero. How does that impact Asche and Franco after this year remains to be seen.

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          1. I believe this would not affect Asche but maybe Franco could be moved to 1B or to LF. This is following last years moves when Hamels was signed and then Pence and Victorino was moved. So if Utley resigns then Michael Young, Delmon Young, Chooch will be traded for prospects in all probability.

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          2. Impacts neither one of them at all.

            Asche wasn’t (rightly or wrongly) going to switch back to second regardless.Next year Asche is the third baseman. Despite not being quite as high on him as some around here (though still quite high on him), and having little faith in Amaro, it would shock and appall me if that were not the case.

            Franco, aside from possibly a September 2014 call up, spends 2014 in AAA. Again, Utley re-signing has zero to do with that. That’s the organization;s MO, even with the recent somewhat more aggressive promotion of some players. IMO it is also the right call. Even those disagreeing will have to admit (a) that that’s IN FACT what is almost certain to happen, and (b) that it’s at least not CLEARLY wrong.

            Decision time is a year and a half from now. If both players perform well next year, each of them will have very high trade value – much more trade value than any current Phillie with the possible exception of Brown – and one of them will be traded.

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            1. “Decision time is a year and a half from now.”

              Agree Larry. And with so many variables there may not be a difficult decision to be made once we get there

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            3. One thing I don’t want the Phillies to do is trade Asche (if he is successful) if Franco comes up and has a successful half season. I want Franco to face and overcome some adversity (retooling his swing if necessary) before trading Asche unless the Phillies are completely blown away by the return.

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    3. I’m in your camp with regard to Asche. I’m just not confident the FO will move in that direction. It will be a paradigm shift if they do.

      You reminded me of the great James vs. Les battle over Utley over at philly.com. Hah! Memories.

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  18. Scary comparison:

    Ethan Martin: 12.1 BB% in AA in 2012
    Jesse Biddle: 12.4 BB% in AA in 2013

    To be fair, 2012 was the lowest BB% of Martin’s career, while 2013 has been the highest of Biddle’s.

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  19. •The Phillies are “narrowing their search for a backup center fielder,” writes Rosenthal, and the recently-designated Chris Dickerson could be one option. Maybe its me. but what the f### do you want a 31 year old outfielder, who cant hit for. give gillies a chance or castro. before this move.

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  20. Phillies (16th): Philadelphia has been snakebitten over the past few years when it comes to their first round draft picks, and the organization is clearly hoping for bigger and better things from Crawford. He’s off to a good start in Rookie ball where he’s compiled 25 hits and seven walks in 18 games, good for a .427 on-base percentage. By getting on base at such a good clip, it should allow him to pile up some steals thanks to his above-average speed.

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