Box Score Recap – 7/19/2013

Box Score Recap

Maikel Franco back above .400 after a 3-5 night. Kelly Dugan with three hits as well, giving him 4 multi-hit games in his last six. That’s a nice little run after a slow start at AA. And Zach Collier hit his 6th HR of the year and brought his BA back above the old Mendoza line. Sounds like he made an adjustment after a video session a couple days ago that has helped his swing (read Mike Drago’s story about that – from the Reading Eagle). Ken Giles struck out 4 and walked 2 in 2 scoreless innings. He’s got a 14/4 K/BB ratio in 7.1 IP since coming back from injury. I’d say he’s healed, (though 4BB in 7.1 IP is not ideal). And a disappointing performance from Wilmer Oberto. 2-5 with a triple and ZERO HOMERUNS! Can you believe that? Shameful.

Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.

http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130719

7-19-2013

72 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 7/19/2013”

    1. I’ve said it before, but I really don’t understand why the organization doesn’t have top prospects all hitting at the top of the order. Why not have the top of the Lakewood order be Tocci, Greene, Walding? Get them as many ABs as possible.

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    1. My son is a student at Seton Hall and has seen Prosinski pitch on numerous occasions. He apparently throws a low 90s fastball and is a bit of a work horse. My son said his upside is a number 4, which would be a nice find for a low slot dollar 10 th round pick.

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      1. What is his secondary stuff? I thought it was interesting he was already bumped up to Lakewood.

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      2. The numbers back up your son regarding Prosinski being a workhorse. He averaged 7.2 innings per start his senior year (7 and 2 tenths, not 7 and 2 thirds) after averaging 6.3 his sophomore and junior years. They also say he has great control. His walk rate was always good and decreased every season from 3.2 is freshman year to 1.1 this year, with more innings pitched every season too. I like hearing that he combines his good control with a low 90s fastball, which I cannot tell from his stats.

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  4. What’s the story on Miguel Nunez? I don’t think I’ve seen him before. Lakewood is on Milb.tv tonight and he’s on the mound. Too bad no Quinn as I wanted to see him in action again.

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    1. Nunez is a tall (6′ 6″) righty from the DR. If I remember correctly, he got a decent bonus to sign. He pitched in the DSL before coming state-side in 2010. He had 2 lost seasons in 2011 and 2012 because of injury. They jumped him to Lakewood this year and he has been so-so. He hasn’t been a big K guy so far but he’s shaking off the rust of a 2 year hiatus. He’ll be 21 in October and I’d like to see him finish this season strong. CLW isn’t totally out of the picture for next year.

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  5. Lino with his third HR of the year. His OPS is at .826 on the year, and in the last ten he’s .355/.412/.581. I’m guessing Lino starts in Lakewood next season and Knapp goes to Clearwater?

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  6. My midseason Top 20:

    1. Maikel Franco: The best third base prospect in the organization since Scott Rolen.
    2. Jesse Biddle: Fastball might be average, but he commands a nasty breaking ball.
    3. J.P. Crawford: So far, so good in the GCL.
    4. Roman Quinn: The org has thrown a lot at him in his young pro career, with mixed results. He might not stick at SS and has been erratic with the bat, but there are positives: he’s shown more pop than expected and the BB rate is near 10 percent. And there is the elite speed.
    5. Adam Morgan: I’m attributing the struggles at AAA to his shoulder injury. He could be in the opening day rotation next season.
    6. Carlos Tocci: http://www.gnc.com/product/index.jsp?productId=2274023&cp=3703232
    7. Cody Asche: Mr. Consistency. If only that second base experiment worked …
    8. Shane Watson: Could very well be near the top of the list this time next season.
    9. Tommy Joseph: CTRL-ALT-DEL
    10. Andrew Knapp: College catcher with an intriguing bat.
    11. Cesar Hernandez: Could be the with the big league club as a utility player next season.
    12. Zach Green: ISO currently sits at .257.
    13. Dylan Cozens: He’s big, strong, athletic, takes walks, steals bases and hits home runs.
    14. Kelly Dugan: Mr. Consistency Jr.
    15. Cord Sandberg: Another one who could be much higher next year (particularly if he plays CF).
    16. Ethan Martin: I’ll join the chorus calling for his promotion to the big league’s bullpen.
    17. Yoel Mecias: Damn you, Tommy John.
    18. Cameron Perkins: Will be in the conversation for a big league call up in September 2014.
    19. Mitch Gueller: Yes, as a pitcher.
    20. Severino Gonzalez: The numbers are too good to ignore.
    Just missed: Mitch Walding, Gabriel Lino, Andrew Pullin, Kenny Giles, Jan Hernandez

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    1. Why drop Joseph so much based on his injury but not Morgan? That seems a little inconsistent.

      Crawford over Quinn seems pretty aggressive given that Crawford’s good numbers in the GCL are a tiny sample and highly BABIP driven. His peripherals aren’t much better than what Quinn did a level higher last year. I guess it could be justified based on defense, but I’m not ready to give up on shortstop Quinn, and I bet he could be a good fielding center fielder which is also a position of value.

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      1. I didn’t drop Joseph based on injury, per se. I’m just not as high on him as others are. There’s definite potential with the bat, and age is still on his side, but the passed balls and other questions on the defensive side are a legit concern at this point IMO.

        Crawford jumps Quinn because of pedigree and the likelihood that he sticks at SS. I love Quinn and think he will be a nice switch-hitting leadoff centerfielder one day, but I do think he will eventually be moved to the outfield.

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          1. I guess I’m still looking at Lino as a project. Knapp is only a year older with four years of college experience, and odds are he begins next season at Clearwater, with Lino in Lakewood (his second stint there in three years). Neither one is supposed to be especially polished on the defensive side right now, but based on what I’ve seen, Knapp would be considered better behind the plate at this point. He just looks to me to be a fast riser, for whatever reason.

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            2. Rupp might start in the majors. If not, then AAA. Joseph probably AAA. Dunno who the AA catcher will be. Maybe Valle if he’s still around.

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    3. Literally, I had never heard of the phrase arm-bar swing until about a month or so ago, and now it’s like a scarlet letter pinned on Maikel Franco’s chest. It’s totally bizarre. Damn, I’d like to be a 20 year-old “struggling” with my swing in AA, hitting .400 with power. I feel like I’m in a parallel “bizzaro” baseball universe when people discuss Maikel Franco at times.

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    4. I just think there is no way Quinn should be that high on list. At this point we can only say he has + speed. Thats it.

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      1. A 9% walk rate is nothing to sneeze at. And he’s shown a little pop with 5 HRs, even if one or two of them didn’t leave the yard.

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        1. his OBP/SLG/OPS/ISO have all regressed as well as his defense. His K rate went up this year and his BB% remained the same. I have really hard time projecting him because once you take him being SS out of equation you left with whole bunch of questions. Will he hit for more power to justify his high K rate, does he hit the ball hard enough to project higher BABIP (currently it sits at .297). All of this can change if he comes back from the injury and improved footwork and throwing accuracy and that’s what I am hopeful for.

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          1. His ISO fell because he’s getting less hits. His TB/H is unchanged, so he’s hitting for as much power as before. His BB/K ratio is basically the same as last year.

            Basically the only different between this year and last year on offense is that his BABIP is 50 points lower, and I bet a lot of that is facing better defenses. The rest could easily be luck (also he’s hitting more fly balls).

            Really the most disappointing thing has been his defense. But even if he doesn’t stick at short, with his speed he should be at least plus in center, which is still a very valuable position.

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          2. You can’t take being a SS out of the equation though. It’s a big part of his value. Even if he has to move to CF he would still be pretty valuable there.

            Also, remember that he’s learning to hit from the left side. I can’t even imagine how hard it must be to start doing that against pro competition. His K and BB rates this year while batting from the right side are an identical 11.7% (only 77 PAs but he had similar splits last year). Give him a chance to see if he can improve batting lefthanded.

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            1. +1 … He’s been asked to make immense adjustments at the professional level. He’s already flashed ability from the left side of the plate, with the majority of his home runs coming from there (I believe). Becoming comfortable while playing a new position and learning to switch hit doesn’t happen overnight. I have a strong feeling he breaks out offensively next year.

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      2. The fact that he’s learning to switch hit and field a new position all while manageing to put up decent numbers is a tribute to how good he can be when he puts it all together. Give him a season or two and this guy will be raking.

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    5. Interesting top 20. Very reasonable top 10. It is always interesting to me that Hernandez seems to fall in behind Asche on these lists, although he is consistently the better hitter, and plays the more important defensive position.
      I’m a little surprised that you have Ethan Martin down at #16. I would be very surprised if Kelly Dugan or Zach Greene (both placed higher), have the trade value that Ethan Martin possesses.

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      1. Agreed that Martin probably has more trade value, although I’d ask for Dugan or Green before I asked for him. Dugan could be an everyday corner outfielder and Green has a big upside with that powerful swing. Martin’s ongoing control struggles are going to limit him to the bullpen IMO.

        I ranked Asche higher than Hernandez because I think he’ll hit for more power.

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      2. Despite myself ranking Asche higher, I have given some thought to this lately. I don’t think it’s a clear case, one way or the other. But I would dispute that “Hernandez is consistently the better hitter. This year, by wRC+, they are almost exactly equal. Last year Asche was clearly better by that metric.

        Breaking it down:

        BB% – This year Hernandez is a little better than Asche, but the opposite was true last season. I’m not convinced that Hernandez is likely to be better going forward. In fact, my gut is that Asche will have the edge here.

        K% – Hernandez has a little edge here and has been consistently a little better. Give Hernandez a small edge on this, but not by a whole lot.

        Power – somewhere between a significant and a big edge to Asche.

        So as hitters, whether looking forward or backward, Asche has an edge on hitting, maybe a significant one.

        Now, the fact that Hernandez has an indeterminate edge in fielding, a significant edge in speed, and a small positional edge, outweigh that to some extent. Maybe enough that he should be ranked higher. Maybe not. But it is an interesting comparison.

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        1. Even if you have determined that Hernandez has not been the better hitter, you site wRC+ that shows they are practically equal offensively. You also concede that Hernandez has the edge in speed and definitely has the positional edge. When you add up all of the two players’ attributes, Hernandez comes out tied or ahead in everything. Because of this, you would think that on at least some lists, Cesar Hernandez would rank ahead of Asche. But that is never the case. I find it odd.

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          1. It could be a psychological thing. Consider: Cody Asche plays third, a position that has been a wasteland in Philly since Rolen left (well, since the Bell signing moved young Polanco to second). Cesar Hernandez plays second, the domain of one Chase Utley.

            Fans are starving for a legitimate third base prospect, since it has been so long since they’ve had one. On the other hand, I’d expect most fans are not as eager to see some young kid come up and replace the man dubbed “The Man” by none other than Harry Kalas. Therefore: Asche gets viewed in a far more optimistic light than Hernandez.

            Personally, as I stated above, I think it’s just the power. 🙂

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            2. It is psychological, that Asche is always placed ahead of Hernandez. The fact that the Phillies big league team needs a 3B more than a 2nd baseman doesn’t make Asche the better prospect. Both players are likely no better than 2nd division starters, but I have seen nothing from both player’s performance (or from scouts), that says Asche is the better prospect.

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          2. You’re just wrong on hitting. They are about equal this season (only). But not before this year. Asche was a lot better last year. I think it’s pretty blinkered to ignore prior data. I thought you were one of the guys who understood sample size. Moreover, even setting aside the questions about the sustainability of Hernandez’ increased BB%, I think you also need to take into account Hernandez’ higher BABIP this year. Normalize that and Asche pulls ahead even for this year.

            Now, one CAN argue that Hernandez’ advantages outweigh Asche’s hitting edge. But denying that Asche is a better hitter … is IMO not a reasonable argument. I know you don’t like Asche, but I think you’re ;letting that interfere with your objectivity in this case.

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            1. I don’t dislike Asche at all. What have I posted about Asche that has been negative? I have consistently ranked Asche in my personal top 10’s since the beginning of last year, and he is still in my top 10. I just seem to be the only person that thinks Hernandez is at least equal to Asche as a prospect, and I consistently rank Hernandez in my top 10.

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  7. Well, if Franco’s swing and plate discipline are horrible, he sure fooled me. I will go on record saying I think he is a stud offensive players. His power and production at his age is very uncommon for a Phil’s minor leaguer, which I have been folowing for 15+years. I think he is going to be a top caliber offensive player in the majors

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  8. Nice to see Jay Johnson in AAA. He could be a nice LOOGY in the ‘pen. I really expected big years from Colton Murray and Ryan O’Sullivan, both have been reeling the last couple of weeks in High-A hopefully they can get it together.

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  9. Guys, for real, stop harping on Franco’s swing. It is unconventional. It may cause him problems at the major league level, but we don’t know that yet. But the people who doubt him because his swing is unorthodox are not incorrect. They are paid to be correct as often as possible, so it is to their benefit to hedge their bets. If someone does something in a different (most likely sub-optimal) way, they are better served predicting it will cause that player trouble because 999 out of 1000 times it will cause problems. Does that mean it can’t work for Franco? No, not necessarily. Does that mean Franco is a bad prospect? No, of course not. It just means he does things differently, so he needs to prove he can have success at every stop. If it stops working, then he’ll need to make an adjustment. Prospect evaluators are just playing the odds, as they should, and the odds say that someone with Franco’s swing will have trouble in the majors. We’ll just have to see how it plays out.

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    2. I think you bring up excellent point. Only make adjustment if it stops working. I have heard nothing about Phillies tweeking his swing and are just letting this play out.

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    3. We only talk about it because several national writers/scouts have brought it up.

      I’m not too concerned about it, but I think we’d be foolish to dismiss the opinions of several professionals who have seen him.

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      1. Question: Saying the current swing is successful for Franco even into the MLB, shouldn’t the Phils still try to fix it since it seems like even if it does work for now, as he ages and his bat naturally slows he will decline very quickly as bat speed, or a natural athletic ability, allows him to overcome the technical deficiency. It just feels like the kind of guy who drops off very quickly from his prime years to his early 30’s.

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        1. Franco has been with the Phillies since he was 17 years old, so you would think they’ve had ample time to work on his swing. I wonder if it was something they tried to change, to no avail, or if they just don’t see it being an issue.

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        2. The problem is how do you tell a guy having the year Franco has had, that his swing is bad and it needs to be fixed? Is a young kid going to be receptive to such when he’s killing it? Will he assign any credibility to the assertion that his swing is flawed?

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          1. No, the problem is how do you know that you can change his swing to a more conventional swing without making him worse rather than better.

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        3. RE the last part, it’s unlikely any org’s top priority with a 20-year-old is how he projects in his early thirties. They’re not going to risk devaluing him now if that’s the *only* upside they see. (if they see the improvement as necessary for MLB success, of course, I’d agree they should fix it).

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          1. that is a good point. If his value is good for the next several years and he can use that swing in the pros deal with the long term issue down the road

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    4. I don’t disagee – it has just been odd. Obviously these professionals have nothing against Franco personally and are just calling it as they see it.

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  10. I have a stats question. It has to do with Ground outs to flyouts. Look at Mark Leiter’s pitching line yesterday. 3 innings pitched, 1 K, 5 ground outs and no flyouts. There was a DP but that’s 7 outs. He got 9 outs. Where did the other two go? I checked the recap and two outs were listed as pop-outs. Wouldn’t a pop-out be a flyout? Does a flyout have to reach the OF?

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    1. I don’t think there is a universal convention for this, i.e., it depends upon who is doing the counting. Fangraphs (or, more accurately, their data source for batted ball data), for example, counts Infield pop ups (IFFB) as fly outs but also records them separately.

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  11. Franco’s ABS is hitting twice as good @ 2A then Super prospect Miguel Sano .404 vs .206. Dont read to much into these author’s opinions about Baseball players

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    1. I feel like the only people reading to much into the national writers’ opinions are the people on this website obsessing over the arm bar swing thing. The fact that there’s now an acronym for it is ridiculous.

      Everyone else seems to recognize that these writers’ job is to describe players as they see them, that sometimes they’re right and sometimes they’re wrong, etc.

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    2. jpolice is right on, and presents the big take away here. I’d add that, if you’re going to compare the performances of Sano and Franco, a comparison of their SSS BA in AA doesn’t mean much at all. I put limited weight on the concerns that some scouts hasve regarding the swing; I put zero weight, none, in the AA BA of either player.

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  12. JP Crawford with a couple more hits and a walk. Venn Biter (3 hits today), surprisingly getting ABs so soon after signing.

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    1. Under the old rules he probably would have signed so late he wouldn’t have gotten a chance for AB’s. Like the new setup a lot better for this reason. Even your latest signing still has a shot for some AB’s

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  13. Crawford – wow, not sure you could ask for much more. Bielski’s on my radar now. 17 year old 14th rounder last year. No earned runs this year, lots of Ks and good ratios all over the place in SSS. Any word on him?

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    1. Richard Bielski’s pitching face is a little terrifying. Now, on to the important stuff.
      Bielski, turns 19 until October, is a hard-throwing right-hander out of Servite High School in California. His fastball has been clocked as high as 94 mph, but he doesn’t have much of a secondary offering yet. With that, it shouldn’t be difficult to figure out that Bielski will be a bit of a project. The Phillies could afford to take on a guy with high upside but a lengthy road with this pick.

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  14. During the LV game they said that Adam Morgan has been called up to AAA and will likely start on Monday, though it’s not official yet. Tom Cochran to the pen. Someone will have to go down on Monday.

    Carman is back in Lakewood. Justin Dalles to Reading.

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  15. Matt Barnes, a Sox high pitching prospect that touches 96 with a tight down- curve, is mowing down the Reading team with lots of Ks….but Franco , though hitless, has not one K so far. Have to give the kid credit, since Barnes is three years older with plenty of stuff and experience.

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  16. Jordan on Cozens:
    “Since he played two sports in high school, he is probably 500 at-bats behind guys who just played baseball,” said Joe Jordan, the Phillies’ director of player development. “He has the thing that is hard to find and that is natural power and we think he will have big power.”

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