Box Score Recap – 7/16/2013

Box Score Recap

So, on a light day, I guess we’ll talk about Wilmer Oberto. A 20-yr old, LHB, Oberto is listed at 5’11”, 185 lbs, which may or may not reflect his current size, as opposed to his size at signing. He comes to the states after 3 years in the VSL, in which he was decent, then bad, then good, respectively, and played all three outfield spots – mostly RF – and some first base. He OPSed .884 last year as a 19-yr old on his third turn through the league, though to be fair, the first two years only netted him about as many PAs as the third. He walked a good bit last year, and did not strike out all that much – 31bb and 38K in around 250 PAs. On Tuesday, he hit his first and second stateside homeruns. As such, his 2013 OPS is through the roof.

I have no guess as to whether this guy should be consider a prospect. His career trajectory would suggest not. I asked Chris King (@statsking) from Baseball Prospectus, who covers GCL and FSL, if he has an opinion. He says the bat is “intriguing”, and that he’ll be watching for Oberto today when he’s scouting the Phils’ double header with the Astros squad. FYI – Chris is a good Twitter follow for, (oddly enough), GCL and FSL stuff. Give him a try. Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.

http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130716

7-16-13 boxscores

125 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 7/16/2013”

  1. My Midseason Top 20:

    1) Jesse Biddle-LHP AA
    I could’ve gone either way on this one, but I’ll go with Biddle since he struck out Franco in the Future’s Game, lol. Biddle possesses a 90-94mph fastball that gets swings and misses, a hammer curveball that is an easy plus pitch, promising changeup, and slider. He has a high floor and that is another reason why I have him at #1. I see him as a very good #3 or, if he can improve his control, a solid #2.

    2) Maikel Franco-3B A+/AA
    Franco has explosive bat speed generated from an unorthodox swing that is questioned by many throughout the scouting community, but his great hand-eye coordination allows him to barrel up the ball consistently. He is very aggressive at the plate and I do not think his approach and pitch recognition will be challenged until AAA. He has a plus arm, good instincts, and good reactions at third, but his range is limited due to being slow footed. I think he can stick at third as long as he keeps his body in shape and will be a middle of the order hitter for the Phillies in the future.

    3) JP Crawford- SS GCL
    I will admit I was not excited by the pick at first, but the more I read up on Crawford, the more I like. He is a HS shortstop who is expected to stick at the position and possibly be above-average in the future due to his athleticism, soft hands, clean actions, and strong arm. His swing is a little long for someone who is not going to hit for a lot of power but he has quick hands that allows him to spray line drives around the field. He might have to shorten up the swing some and fill out his 6’2” frame to become an above-average hitter, but Crawford is definitely someone to get excited about.

    4) Roman Quinn- SS A
    Speed is the calling card for Quinn as it rates as an 80 on the 20-80scale and it helps him on offense and defense as he has plus range at SS. Quinn was converted to a switch-hitter after being drafted and has shown a good eye at the plate and more power than expected this year as he has 5 homeruns so far. Defense is where the real question is for Quinn. Still learning how to play SS, Quinn has shown very good range and a strong arm, but has been making a lot of errors on his throws due to erratic footwork. He may have to move off SS in the future, but you can imagine having his speed at the top of the lineup in the future.

    5) Adam Morgan- LHP AAA
    Morgan has had shoulder issues this year, which scares me a little, but not enough to drop him further than this. He and Biddle have similar fastballs while Morgan has more command right now; Morgan also has the better changeup, while Biddle has the better breaking ball. I’m hoping he can finish the season healthy and strong so he can jump into the Phils rotation at some point next year. I see Morgan as #3 in the future with an outside chance of becoming a #2.

    6) Cody Asche- 3B AAA
    After bursting onto the scene last year Asche has been under the radar this year as he keeps on hitting. He has also improved his defense over at third. I think Asche can become a solid regular at third and should get his chance this year if Young is traded or at some point next year. He may be the first third basemen in line to get the call, but he better watch his back as Franco may knock him off third in the near future.

    7) Carlos Tocci- CF A
    Tocci may have one the highest ceilings in the system as he is just 17 and holding his own in full season ball. He is an above-average CF with good range due to plus speed and good instincts. The question with Tocci will be how much he can hit. He is very skinny and is not strong enough now to hit for much power. He has good contact skills and has lowered his strikeout rate and raised his ISO while making the jump from the GCL to A ball. If Tocci can develop into average power in the future he can become a star due to his instincts, which are unmatched by anyone his age, and all around game.

    8) Tommy Joseph- C AAA
    A very disappointing season from Joseph as he has been on the DL most of the season due to a concussion. When he was healthy, he was not impressive in Lehigh Valley with the bat and was not very good defensively. Joseph will never hit for a high average, but he has plus raw power and plus-plus makeup according to scouts, which is very important for a catcher.

    9) Shane Watson- RHP A
    The organization has been limiting his pitches so far this year, but Watson has still had some solid peripherals. He has recently been put on the DL to give him some rest, but should be back in August. When Watson returns, and if the organizations allows him to fully use his curveball, I expect him to be very solid, if not dominate.

    10a) Dylan Cozens- RF NYP
    A second round pick last year, Cozens looks like a freak at 6’6”, but he is very athletic and moves well on the field despite his size. He has a lot of raw power that comes easy from the left side and has shown a good amount of plate discipline so far this season. He might eventually get too big to play the OF and might have to play first base but the bat will be his calling card. In a perfect world, I see a left-handed Giancarlo Stanton.

    10b) Andrew Knapp- C NYP
    Drafted this year in the second round, Knapp is a switch-hitting catcher who is raw behind the plate. Knapp expects to be an offensive minded catcher with good contact skills and above-average power in the future. He began catching last year and is athletic enough to stick behind the plate with a good arm as well. I am hoping to see him jumped up to Clearwater next year.
    12) Kelly Dugan
    Could become an everyday player in RF
    13) Ethan Martin- RHP AAA
    Control and command are holding him back.
    14) Andrew Pullin- 2B NYP
    I think he can hit, raw at second.
    15) Cord Sandberg- OF GCL
    Raw, but very high ceiling.
    16) Zach Green- 3B NYP
    Could be a plus defender at third, big power, a lot of swing and miss.
    17) Aaron Altherr- CF A+
    A lot of swing and miss, but tools!
    18) Cameron Perkins- OF A+
    Just keeps hitting, hopefully he gets promoted soon.
    19) Gabriel Lino- C NYP
    Young and has a lot of tools for a catcher.
    20) Kenneth Giles- RHP A+
    Big fastball with closer potential.

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      1. Cesar didn’t qualify for me and Sev is at 22 right now, but quickly rising with his dominance and reports that he is touching 94 with the fastball.

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      2. Sev is the new kid, not everyone has had a chance to really appreciate what he’s doing. Once he gets some more pubs, he’ll skyrocket up the lists. Cesar I think people are taking for granted since he’s been around so long.

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          1. From what I caught of the game and talking Mitch Rupert who was at the game, he misplayed a ball (let it drop rather than getting a good jump and catching it) but he also had some good jumps on others.

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            1. Matt, thanks for your answer about Hernandez’s CF play. It does not appear that Hernandez can help the Phillies this year but what are your thoughts?

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            2. I don’t think he can help in the next few weeks, it is way too early to make judgements on the defense in CF for the whole season. Unless Gillies finds consistency he might be the best of the solutions for the season.

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    2. Re Crawford:

      Fangraphs put together a handy self-updating list of performance by this year’s first round picks. They rank players by something called wRAA, which looks at the most predictive performance metrics for prospects (e.g., NOT BA). While this “corrects” for Crawford’s unsustainable BABIP, he still ends up ranking 3rd in hitting among HS picks. And of course he is a SS.

      The only HS kids off to better hitting starts are Clint Frazier (5th overall and an outfielder) and Reese Mcguire (14th overall and a catcher).

      Yes, SSS. But, despite the absurdly high BABIP, Crawford is (so far, anyway) the real deal.

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    3. My top 10 probably features the same players, albeit with some minor repositioning. Good observations with each player. However, I can’t get behind Cord Sandberg over Zach Green, who has done nothing but rake in 1 1/2 professional seasons.

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      1. Personally, Sandberg is one of my favorite prospects so it might just be some bias on my part lol

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      2. The argument is that Sandberg has better raw tools, plays a more premium position (for now) and there are some who are concerned about Green’s swing and approach right now (with all the caveats that he has plenty of time to work it out). But I think the bigger thing is that the difference between about 8 and 20 on any list is just personal preference without any clear cut heirarchy

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    4. Good list, Alec. Nothing that stands out of line. I have a few slight differences.

      01. Biddle
      02. Franco
      03. Crawford
      04. Tocci
      05. Quinn
      06. S Watson
      07. Morgan
      08. Joseph
      09. C Hernandez
      10. Asche
      11. E Martin
      12. Knapp
      13. Sandberg
      14. Pullin
      15. M Gueller
      16. Cozens
      17. Z Green
      18. Altherr
      19. Dugan
      20. Grullon

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      1. I don’t know about Pullin honestly, I think a lot of us are overrating him. Yes he has a low K rate, but it’s coming with a low walk rate. Also a lot of his OBP last year was aided by 7 HBP, which he has none of this year.

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        1. I agree. Probably has a lot to do with our experience with Utley. Fact of the matter is he’s a guy with what seems like a decent hit tool, but not much else at this point. Being that he’s still in short season ball, it seems like there’s a lot of dreaming going on (hence the Utley reference).

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      2. Boy we sure like what we don’t know! Tocci is nothing more than a glimmer in dads eye at this point. He has no reason to be above anyone who has done something, I understand the interest but the guy has zero power, fringe base stealing numbers, and is not hitting, and is weak physically. Really?

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        1. It’s not so much “liking what I don’t know”. It’s not liking what I already know. From my POV, Tocci deserves to be higher than some guys with a long resume, because their resume’s aren’t impressive. Tocci is ahead of his class, and in full-season Lakewood. The faith the organization showed by sending him there to compete, is an indication of his prospect status. Same goes for Watson.
          Guys that are behind their class, or just treading water in their correct level, don’t rate as high.
          Just because players are at an advanced level, doesn’t convey prospect status. You have to dominate your correct level or be placed ahead.

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          1. My only question about Tocci would be why he isn’t rated above Crawford seeing that he is younger, two levels ahead, and also plays a premium defensive position?

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            1. It looks like 2 levels but it is really only 1 level and possibly none come next spring (both could be in Lakewood). Crawford might have higher upside then Tocci because SS is a more premium defensive position then CF and he has more actualized hit and power tools with from for growth as well. You can make the argument of Tocci over Crawford, I personally will take the SS over the CF when both project to stick at those positions.

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            2. Thanks Matt, was worried that came off as a snide comment when it wasn’t meant to be. It’s just interesting to me to hear people’s thoughts age to level. There seems to be such an emphasis placed on it with some people one would think Tocci would have a much bigger fan club with what he’s been able to do. Personally, I agree with just about everything you said though I’d make the argument that their hit tools are similar. Tocci is such a big question mark in regards to power right now that it makes him hard to project. Anyway, thanks for the answer.

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            3. I think the big thing to remember with Tocci is that the profile and swing are not a slash and run type approach. He has a good swing that produces solid contact and he can spray the ball all over the field. He is not going to get big time power but this is not Ben Revere chopping the ball on the ground and running. I also think it takes some time to not look at stats in the low minors and create narratives from them.

              Both Tocci and Crawford are guys you want to build a system around, dynamic up the middle talent.

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            4. I’m not sure what you mean by “looks like 2 levels but it is really only 1 level”. Crawford would have to move up 2 levels to be at the same level as Tocci. I agree with the rest of your post though.

              It’s an interesting debate. I try not to put too much stock in short-season stats, so I’m not really sure at this point what Crawford’s offensive upside is. I read a something where a scout said he had “top of the order” potential so I assume that means either leadoff or the 2-hole. It seems to me like Tocci could be more than that. If you look at Crawford in the GCL vs. Tocci in the GCL, 2 years younger, Tocci stacks up pretty well. Less strikeouts, higher LD%, even more fly balls. Also, I don’t expect Tocci to repeat Lakewood.

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            5. I wouldn’t argue much if Tocci was placed higher than Crawford by some, but being considered the best amateur SS in the country carries weight.
              To be honest, Crawford’s stats don’t mean anything to me right now. There was a quote recently by an insider that said Crawford was the smoothest SS he had seen in the GCL in 3 years. That is more meaningful than his hitting stats. Being a SS, Crawford doesn’t have to hit much at all, to become a Major Leaguer.

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    5. I think Adam Morgan drops down the list considerably. During the offseason rankings, I resisted the movement to move him to the top of the list, based on the theory that his great 2012 came out of nowhere, basically, and we needed some more evidence that the performance was for real. I don’t feel like we’ve gotten that evidence. Plus, we’ve got a mysterious arm injury that has not been operated on, which scares me.

      I feel like for a college guy who was picked in the 3rd round, who didn’t come with much of a scouting pedigree, everything kind of has to fall into place perfectly. A lost season due to an arm injury changes the trajectory. I’m not saying he’s no longer a prospect. But I think he’s going to have to prove he’s healthy over the remainder of this year and then come in with a strong spring performance followed by a sustained stretch of success at AAA before he gets a sniff of the big leagues. For better or worse, he probably starts 2014 behind Ethan Martin (who Jordan said recently is the next man up in case of an injury) and Biddle on the AAA depth chart, with the caveat that the Phillies may be reluctant to bring up Biddle in the early season due to development/future arb issues.

      I’m not ready to do this exercise right now, but I’d say Morgan probably drops to around 10 on my list right now, with the caveat that he could make up a lot of the lost ground with a strong end to his season.

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      1. The only reason I drop Morgan is because of Crawford and Tocci. I still really like Morgan as a prospect and I see no reason why a healthy finish to the season should diminish his prospect. It’s important to remember that Morgan added MPH to his fastball and that’s part of the reason for his unexpected success.

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        1. Just to play the devil’s advocate for a second: could the added MPH also have something to do with the injury? I’m not a doctor (uh oh… bad way to start a sentence) but it seems like experiments that lead to a short-term jump in velocity could also lead to long-term damage to the arm. But I’m just throwing that thought out there. Other people have seen Morgan pitch more than I have, maybe they have some thoughts about the mechanics.

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          1. It was less of a velocity spike and more that he found consistency on velocity he had always flashed (the stuff was good in college just never was consistent with results). I haven’t heard anything bad about the delivery to would indicate injury risk

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  2. Can someone explain to me what they see in Dylan Cozens that they do not see in Larry Greene. When looking at each player’s respective age 19 seasons at Williamsport their stats are remarkably similar.

    BA OBP Slg% OPS
    Cozens: .233 .317 .422 .740
    Greene: .272 .373 .381 .754

    Is it that people see Cozens as having more projectable power? Are people disappointed by Greene’s apparent regression/lack of progression? Or are people simply disappointed in Greene because of his fitness issues? Or is it something else?

    I am not a Greene supporter, frankly, I’ve been unimpressed. However, I don’t see a huge difference between Greene and Cozens statistically and I’m curious as to what some people are seeing that I don’t. Keeping in mind that I’ve seen neither player actually play a baseball game and my impressions are entirely statistically based.

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    1. Cozens has had some bad BABIP luck so far but has an ISO of .189 compared to Greene’s .109. So Cozens is hitting for more power while striking out less.

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    2. Take a look at the BABIPs. Cozens is doing it with a .250 BABIP, Greene did it with a .378. Regress those closer to .300 and its not even a close comparison. Cozens also has a .186 ISO, Greene had a .109. Cozens is a plus outfielder that will steal 20 bases.
      Greene lets balls bounce around him and doesn’t bother even chasing after them.

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      1. considering how hard Cozens hits the ball expect his BABIP to be higher than average over time. It wouldn’t surprise me to see .100 jump for Cozens in BABIP over next year.

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    3. I am sorta with you on this but here are a few reasons why I think Cozens is better although not by much. Cozens seems to be the better fielder and has a little more speed which he uses. Cozens’ power has shown a bit more to this point. Cozens’ big draw back right now is his BABIP is really low at .250. Without batted ball data it’s hard to tell if he’s making good contact or not. Scouting reports also have not been favorable to Greene’s pitch recognition. So I think that is the case for why Cozens is seen as a better prospect but I could see a point where Cozens runs into similar problems as Greene.

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    4. OTBGM – Cozens end of season slash will probably look much different than it does today, for better or worse. Will be an interesting comparison once Williamsport wraps up its season

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    5. It is the overall profile. The reports are that Cozens is more athletic (he should at least come up as a RF if he makes the majors), with more speed, a bigger arm, and more in game power.

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    6. I think this is a pretty strong example of a bunch of little things (which I won’t repeat, others have laid them out) adding up to a lot.

      You might want to add that, at the time, Greene WASN’T regarded as a big disappointment. The knock on him was the lack of power – otherwise his season last year was perceived fairly positively. He ranked 14th on the reader top 30. Cozens will be higher than that, assuming he continues to play well, but probably not THAT much higher.

      And Greene’s disappointing season THIS year is not relevant to projecting Cozens.

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    7. I think part of it is that Cozens got off to a hot start this year- I think at one point he had something like 9 walks and 4 strikeouts after 10 games. He hasn’t maintained that sort of start but it was enough to get the excitement level up.

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      3. Double header today likely should be in the lineup in game 2. So many guys to get ABs and no need to have him play 14 innings of baseball today

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        1. Oberto now leads the league in RBI’s at age 20 is he considered “old” or age appropriate?

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    3. He went deep again today as well … 3 games in row today was a slam now up to 4 Hrs and 23 RBI’s. Nice little streak!

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    1. I’ve got to imagine that if the Phillies were planning to trade Utley at this point, the Cesar in CF experiment would not be happening.

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    2. I actually think that is a great trade. Choice is a former 1st round pick who can play CF but is long term a plus defensive LF with big time power that has shown up in streaks but should even out over time. Ynoa is the type of special arm that you like seeing come back in a trade, he is on the 40 man roster but there is a ton of talent now that he is finally healthy and pitching. I don’t know about how Weeks will do but there are certainly much worst buy low candidates.

      That being said I wouldn’t advocate trading Utley but that is certainly a fair package coming back.

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      1. Matt, you posted before me but I would agree with you as it would keep us competitive and help us build for the future.

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      2. More than fair, really. I doubt you get Ynoa in that deal.

        Anyway, it’s not happening. Phillies are “buyers.” I’ve been kicking around the list of the top five guys on the farm most likely to be traded, but I’m not sure where to post it–might be fun to have a separate post to see who everyone sees as the most likely to head out. (If only to keep the “Hewitt for CarGo!” posts out of the Box Score recaps.)

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        1. I think the Phillies are buyers in more of a “heading out to Wawa for milk” sense. I wouldn’t expect even a top 10 prospect to go at the deadline.

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        2. Dont forget that Ruiz is in that deal, of which he and Utley could net us a draft pick in next years draft, I like Choice , and I have seen Weeks play a few times , he did nothing to impress me , doesnt have the arm to play any position but second base. I would tell the A’s , Its Addison Russel and Choice , for Utley and Ruiz , and if they balk just hang up the phone and let them call back when the Ranger and Angels overtake them on the 30th of July

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          1. I think you are overvaluing Ruiz here (why may finally have hit the normal catch decline). There is no way he is netting a draft pick and at best he should hope to match AJ Pierzynski’s 1yr $7.5 million. Also there is no way you get Russel in any trade to the Phillies.

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            1. Exactly. They have to make him a qualifying offer of over 12 million, to get a draft pick.

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            2. wow, I was unaware of how much of a qualifying offer would need be to get a draft pick for Ruiz. The reason why I would ask for so much is I dont want to trade Utley , im ok with his decline , for him to remain a life long Phillie , and would have to be absolutely wowed by an offer. Plus I think the city of brotherly love would burn by the hands of rioters if Utley were traded , for the scrubs that are being offered , weeks , please, choice id rather have Revere , and Ynoa seems like to fit in the mold of Aumont , good fastball bad control

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      3. love the trade from the phillies standpoint. Although all those announcer were talking about during the futures game when ynoa pitched is that there is that problem in his delivery

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    3. Couple things about Cameron to keep in mind. One, he’s been saying the Phillies should trade all the veterans (I exaggerate only slightly) for some time. Two, he’s been on the Utley to the A’s kick for some time. The latter seems driven more by his perceptions of the A’s needs than his perceptions of the Phillies’ needs. He also assumes (without evidence) that Utley won’t be back. Cameron is a smart guy but in this case I think he’s off base. And it goes without saying that this is just his own proposal, not something that the teams are really talking about.

      Like it or not, I’m inclined to think that a number of small pieces of evidence (including the Hernandez experiment, Utley’s comments about wanting to stay with the Phillies) are indicative that the Phillies will not trade him and will re-sign him.

      As for this particular deal, no. Choice does not look to me to be a regular on a contending team. I like the BB rate (typical of an A’s prospect) but not much else about the profile. Even if they were convinced he wasn’t going to resign, that’s IMO not better than the sandwich pick, or at least not enough better considering the negative fan reaction that would ensue.

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  5. Brad the prognosticator. 2nd time I’m compelled to say this the past few weeks.

    Oberto with a 3-run jack in the first. GCL Phils up 6-0 after 3 today after 4 innings

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    1. Oberto 5 RBI’s today, Sanderg 2-2 with 2 BB no Crawford hopefully he plays in game 2. Morgan 4 in, 3h ,5k’s, 0 R.

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  6. Speaking of the complex leagues, the VSL Phils have a 17 year old SS named Grenny Cumana who’s in his first year with the team. He’s listed at only 5’5″, but he’s getting a lot of ABs and he’s actually hitting well. Notably he has more walks than Ks and a .365 OBP. Was he a big money signing? Because he seems to be demonstrating skills at a young age that we don’t often see in those leagues. Hopefully he continues to grow a little bit over the next couple years.

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    1. The profile certainly does not look like a big money signing but once you get past the big names, the money involved can often just involve how many guys scouted him

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    2. He was not among the 5 guys they announced last year with $100K+ bonuses. He is playing over Isava, however, who was one of those guys.

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      1. Isava’s been out of the lineup since June 24. You’d have to think there’s either an injury or an instructional thing happening that’s keeping him off the field, or he’d be at least getting a start and a couple ABs a week, I would think.

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    3. at 5’5″ his strike zone must be the size of a grapefruit , which probably has alot to do with his high obp. it must be hard for those young kids to consistently find his strike zone

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    4. If you’re looking at size, how about Lucas Rojo, a 2B on the same team. He’s listed as 5’6″ 153 and is 19 years old. Weird thing is he has 6 HRs and 18 RBIs. If the size is true, I’ve got to believe he’s looking at a suspension.

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  7. Herlis Rodriguez has been hitting well in the first few games since his GCL debut this season. There were a lot of us that had some high hopes for him last season. He only just turned 19. Any thoughts about whether he could be a prospect?

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  8. Mariano Rivera -all-time save leader withtotal of 681 MLB and MiLB.
    —Majors- 638 (regular season). 42 (post-season)
    —Minors-1

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    1. And your point is . . . .? Mariano Rivera, in so many ways, is the outlier to end all outliers. You can’t use Mariano Rivera as a precedent for, or harbinger of, anyone else..

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          1. By the way, the lawyer references are just moronic. What are you “Anonymous” ten years old? Give me a break.

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            1. I wish I were a dentist, then, like in Seinfeld, I could call you an “anti-dentite”

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    2. Rivera proves the point that most elite relievers started as SP, also that the minor league save is the single most useless stat in existence. Rivera’s save came in 1990 when he worked out of the bullpen for the GCL Yankees. over his minor league career Rivera started 68 games and relived in 35, all of which were in his first two seasons. As a minor leaguer he had a career 2.35 ERA with a 2.0 BB/9 rate and 8.0 K/9 rate (all of which are eerily close to his career numbers). He actually started 10 games in his rookie year in the majors

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      1. Matt, I don’t necessarily think that’s true anymore, although it was definitely once the case. These days, a lot of guys are groomed from the beginning as closers or relief specialists. Rivera was still the outlier to end all outliers. His career meandered for a long time and the, everything went right. He came upon his plus velocity well into his mid 20s (he didn’t close full time until he was 27), he pitched for the best team in baseball, he developed one of the most unhittable pitches in baseball history (cutter), and he had almost perfect command to go with that pitch.

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  10. Phillies 5th by Forbes:
    1. New York Yankees -2.3B
    2 Los Angeles Dodgers – 1.6B
    3 Boston Red Sox -1.3B
    4 Chicago Cubs -1.0B
    5 Philadelphia Phillies -893M .
    6 New York Mets -811M
    7 San Francisco Giants – 786M
    8 Texas Rangers -764M
    9 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim -718M
    10 St Louis Cardinals -716M
    ….since ’94 this small-market team has come along way!

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  11. Went down to Reading last night and had a couple thoughts, so I thought I’d share them.

    1. The Blue Moon on tap was delicious.
    2. Mario Hollands should be better than what he is for the tools he’s working with. Smooth, consistent delivery. Hides the ball well, and then it just jumps out of his hand. The park radar gun wasn’t on, but I’m guessing 91-92. But with his long arms and legs it plays a lot faster. Problem was he couldn’t locate it to save his life in the first two innings. Started throwing a couple first-pitch sliders in his last few innings to get ahead and it seemed to work much better for him. He gave up 9 or 10 hits, but it didn’t feel like it was that much. It felt like he pitched a lot better than the numbers showed.
    3. Cesar Hernandez is not an answer in center field any time soon for the big league club. He’s very natural out there in his movements, really does glide to the ball, throws to the right bases, but struggled at times on whether or not to charge in. Seemed like he was so afraid to have a ball go over his head that he was hesitant to come charging in and get the ball. It cost him one time, another time he had enough speed to make the catch. I can’t see a scenario where he’s the choice to play center in Philly this year, not when you need someone to cover extra ground for Delmon.
    4. I still love Kelly Dugan’s swing from the left side. First AB got robbed of a double down the right-field line. It looked fair from behind the plate, but first-base ump called it foul. Should have been a double and an RBI. I liked how he came back in the at-bat though and stayed in against a hard-throwing lefty and hit a breaking ball back through the box hard which the pitcher snagged. Definitely a positive at-bat even if it resulted in a come-backer. Had an RBI hit later in the game off another lefty (don’t know that he faced a right-hander all night), but I guess the official scorer changed it to an error with some pressure from Trenton. Kelly used to fly open with his hips with a violent turn to try and gain some power, the bat speed seems more natural now, and he really stays in well on left-handed breaking balls.
    5. Matt and I had a discussion about this on Twitter last night during the game, but I see where the criticism with Maikel Franco’s long swing is coming from, and it’s a legitimate criticism and concern. He doesn’t really have a pre-pitch load, so his hands are traveling backward as the pitch is released. He got beat by above average fastballs last night and will keep getting beat by them. The good news is, as Matt and I discussed, it’s definitely a fixable thing. He needs to get his hands loaded pre-pitch whether it’s part of his initial setup or part of his load to get his weight transferred. His only hit last night came on a hanging breaking ball up in the zone which he didn’t hit particularly hard back through the middle.

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      1. Last Game against Trenton last week I saw him pull foul a 97 mph fastball and looked very comfortable the whole at bat. Just adding my two cents.

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    2. Off topic but is the on tap Blue moon a regularity at Reading games or was it a special night kinda thing? I been wanting To catch a Rphils game for years and this may just be the push I need to make it a reality

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        1. Hate to burst your bubble, but Blue Moon is mass produced by Miller Coors right here in Golden Colorado. Stick with Microbrews.

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            2. Right. Most of what’s out there can eventually be linked back to Miller or Budweiser. I enjoy Blue Moon – not as heavy as some micros. Leinenkugel’s is pretty good too. They had a Leinenkugel’s stand in Clearwater during the Spring Training schedule – though they’ve since removed it.

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            3. If you like Blue Moon (and it’s not bad at all), try a Hoegaarden. It’s better than Blue Moon and, besides, when you order, you get to say “give me a ho . . . . gaarden”

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            5. Technically it’s roots are independent, then Miller, then MillerCoors. Point being, it’s not a sub-brand conceptualized by Miller or Coors

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    1. He didn’t start, but he hasn’t allowed a run this year, in 6 appearances, and he is only 18 years old.

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    2. If top of the rotation is 1/2, middle of the rotation is 3/4, back of the rotation is 4/5. So there’s overlap between middle and back.

      I can see calling Biddle a 3/4 because of his walk-rate. It’s gotten out of hand this season and he needs to cut down a lot because those walks will equal runs when you get to the majors. If he cuts down on it I see him as #2/#3 guy. If he doesn’t then I think he’s closer to a #4.

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      1. I see Morgan (if he’ healthy), falling in the 2-4 range, which a more likely outcome of a solid 3. I don’t think Morgan has ace potential. I see Biddle falling in the 2-3 range (he won’t be that right away, he’ll probably start out as a strong 4, weak 3), but he could be a 4 and also has an outside shot of becoming an ace because he throws a truly elite pitch. I think we’re not see the best of Biddle because he is diligently working on his weaknesses. His outings are more a study in his efforts to improve than they are showcases for his best efforts. And if Biddle adds 1-2 MPH on the FB and if his FB command improve a little, watch out. He could be lethal. If you forced me to guess, however, I’d say, Biddle works his way up to a 2 over time. Certainly, his make-up and work ethic appear to be phenomenal, not a small issue for a starting pitcher.

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        2. I still think Biddle is a 1-2 type. Kid is only 21. 21. He’s been all-star caliber at every level and has maintained his K/9. A little regression in BB/9 moving from the FSL to the Eastern league should be expected. I’d like to see him finish strong at AA, take on the challenge of AAA next season and perhaps make a half-dozen starts with the big club. No rush though – competing for a rotation spot in 2015 would be fine by me.

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          1. Biddle is nowhere near a #1 or #2 starter ceiling. You may have wildly different definitions of those terms that put it more in the #3 ceiling that the majority of people have on him.

            Throw the age away on Biddle, pitcher age is much less relevant than hitter age because the stuff is what matters. Biddle isn’t going to magically find enough velocity to make it a better than plus fastball, he is maxed out physically, and that is fine because the frame is of a pitcher who can give you 200+ innings a year. On the major league level the stuff just isn’t that special, and in reality a #3 starter is great outcome.

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            1. I disagree. A #1 is an ace – one of the best pitchers in baseball. I doubt Biddle could become that good, but it’s possible – probably too high of a ceiling for Biddle.

              A #2 by my definition is a guy who, while not one of the very best pitchers in baseball, can be a first or second starter on a really good staff – an innings eater who has an ERA in the high 2s or the very low 3s . Let’s face it, Cole Hamels is a 2, as is Gio Gonzalez most years. Jon Lester, when he is right, is a 2. It is more than possible that Jesse Biddle becomes this good. You are wrong about pitchers developing – while it’s true that their velocity rarely spikes, they do refine their command and work on developing and improving secondary offerings. This is the precise position in which Biddle finds himself and Biddle appears to be a tremendously motivated and driven player. This is especially true because Biddle has an elite pitch – the curve – which can play up enormously if he learns to set it up properly, much as Hamels sets up his change. So, if you told me that, in some years, Biddle would go 16-9 with a 3.13 ERA, would I believe that? Absolutely.

              To me, a #3 is a very strong pitcher who eats innings, can be counted on most games for a quality start and occsionally flahes brilliance. A guy with an ERA in the mid to upper 3s, who routinely pitches deep into games. Kyle Kendrick has become what I view to be a #3 – in fact, I think he is the prototypical #3 on a competitive team. Doug Fister is another #3. I think Biddle’s most likely outcome (and probably Adam Morgan’s most likely outcome) is as a #3.

              A #4 is typically a mediocre older pitcher who eats innings (Joe Blanton before he got worse) or a younger starter developing his arsenal. A guy who is usually okay and has some good games, but also has clunkers. Rarely dominates. Jon Pettibone has pitched like a solid #4 this year.

              #5 – I think we all know what a #5 starter typically looks like. One of the “hidden” ways you can improve a team is by having a very serviceable #5 who holds his own and steals you a lot of games. John Lannan has, when healthy, generally been an exemplary #5 this year – he was a great pick-up by the Phillies. Actually, he’s pitched much more like a #4 or even a #3.

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            3. I didn’t say he was likely to be a #2, I said it was his ceiling and I still believe that. Well, we can all agree to disagree – that’s what this site is about. I’m just saying, don’t undersell Biddle, there’s a lot to this kid and he’s going to surprise some folks. I am telling you now that if he can command his FB and use his change properly, he is going to have games that he will strike out like 14 or 15 batters because the curve can be completely unhittable at times. Really … unhittable. That’s what gives him this upside in my view. But you are free to see it differently.

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          2. A few things to add regarding Biddle’s season;

            He’s allowed 70 hits in 97.3 innings or 6.5 H/9 – that’s superb

            He’s increased is K/9 to 9.9 after a 9.5 in 2012 and an 8.4 in 2011. A new level each season and playing against mostly older competition has resulted in an increased K rate. Also superb.

            While the BBs are something to be aware of, I’m not ‘concerned’ in the fashion that I am with Martin, or previously with Trevor May. Biddle has had a fantastic year and even in light of some inconsistency, his prospect has only gone up as far as I’m concerned.

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            1. I still see him as a #2/3. #1s are very rare and the Phillies farm has produced very, very few guys over the years who could be argued to be at this level. Hamels is a #1/2. He had a lot of injuries in the minors, but when he pitched he was far more dominant than Biddle has been in any season. I’d argue that Rick Wise also was a #1/2 sort of guy. So was Chris Short. Can’t really think of any others during the past 50 seasons.

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            2. Wow – I think you are right – how damning is that? But organizations, like car companies, often have blind spots in areas that never seem to get better (I think, by comparison, of the many Chrysler made cars I’ve had over the years and every single one of them had a freaking transmission problem – every one!). The Mets don’t develop hitters – really ever. Aside from Daryl Strawberry, who fell in their lap because he was the #1 pick, the only really excellent hitter they’ve ever draft/signed and developed is David Wright. Seriously, that’s it, unless you count Lenny Dyktra or Ken Singleton and now you’re really reaching.

              My gripe with the Phillies, historically, is that they would rather go for a guy with a good curveball or good control, rather than a super hard thrower. Although there are exceptions to this rule, it is very rare indeed for a curveball pitcher to become a dominant pitcher. I think Biddle could be the exception, but the rule still applies. That’s why I am cautiously pessimistic about using high draft picks for curveball specialists such as Gavin Floyd, Bret Myers and Shane Watson. Now, for all I know, Watson could be the greatest thing since sliced bread and it does look like they are working on his other pitches, but he was drafted because he was a curveball specialist.

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  15. – Great to see Sweaney playing catcher in the box score. Despite Tommy’s lost season and Valle’s virtual disappearance, catching still has to be among our strongest positions. Lino, Sweaney, Knapp, Joseph and Rupp all project to someday catch in the major leagues. How many orgs can claim 5 future major league catchers in their system? Too bad its clustered in the low minors, but in several years, we should have serious depth at the position. (At least one position)

    – I get all the criticism tied to Franco, but his age and position value should offset at least some of that, as indicated by his appearance(#33) on Fangraph’s mid-season list: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-2013-mid-season-top-50-prospects/
    More than several bad bodied, slow-footed 3rd basemen with soft hands have fielded the position adequately. There have also been a lot of overly-aggressive hitters who put up big numbers using a unique approach.

    re Franco: what minor league hitters show more power? Or at least, have shown more this season? Dismissing 2013 draftees, with their SSS.

    Sano is frequently touted for his 80 power tool; “arguably the best in the minor leagues”(-fangraphs) and their position, age, skill sets and rate of progress will make for unavoidable comparisons going forward. While Franco has raked in Reading, Sano hasn’t adjusted to AA pitching. These are their combined 2013 numbers from the Fangraphs list Sano strikes out and walks more, but Franco makes better contact.
    Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
    20 348 86 19 22 43 91 9 .293 .388 .609 .436
    Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
    20 368 110 26 21 21 42 0 .321 .359 .598 .42

    OK, besides Sano…who else in the minors has serious pop?(prospects only)

    Joey Gallo – Remember all those Olt-centered trade rumors last year? Phew. Definitely the wrong power hitting 3B prospect(not that he was eligible, except as a PNL) from the Rangers organization. Olt has struggled at triple-A, let alone the bigs.and certainly isn’t the MLB ready power hitting 3B everybody had in their 2012 top 25. The 6’5” Gallo, on the other hand, has shown serious pop since being selected 39th overall in 2012, hitting 26 bombs (and counting) in his first season as a 19 year old in A ball. He has struggled to make contact (135 Ks! .225 BA) but the power is extremely exciting. While we’re on the Rangers, don’t sleep on Ryan Rua, who has 28 home runs as a 23 year old in A ball. I’d write him off if not for his value-added positional flexibility, playing games this year at 2B, 3B, 1B, SS and DH.

    George Springer – Springer, Singleton and Correa will make the middle of the Astros lineup dangerous for the better part of the next decade. IMHO Springer is the best of the three, despite being the oldest. He’s the biggest offensive threat, as an “easy” future 30-30 guy with walks and good defense in center. I’m glad to honestly believe Singleton is easily the worst prospect of the three, with the highest bust risk and no defensive value.

    Stetson Allie- His power numbers make me wonder what Ethan Martin could do(more like could’ve done) with the bat, being another top two way prep draft prospect. The guy taken before Martin was another top two way player in high school: Aaron Hicks. Of course Martin’s relative success on the mound wouldn’t justify a positional switch; its just what I think about when I see the name “Stetson Allie”.

    Javier Baez, Xander Bogaerts – Baez has more pop and is more likely to stick at SS than his more hyped BoSox counterpart, but Bogaerts is more advanced in other areas.

    Who else? Bubba Starling? Mike Zuninio? Greg Polanco? None of them have really demonstrated their supposedly huge power potential. There is a serious dearth of power hitters in the minor leagues…and in the majors, come to think of it. That being said, scouts could even be downplaying the true significance of Franco’s present power as a 20 year old in AA, There’s no need to emphasize obvious value of a young Aramis Ramirez or Adrian Beltre, two guys who, come to think of it, also have bad bodies, wacky setups, aggressive approaches and long swings. However, given the lack of overall power in baseball, Franco’s bat projects to play well at any position, including 1st. .

    btw i’m the “everybodyhits” anonymous

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    1. Not especially relevant, but Olt’s gone through a well chronicled vision issue that’s been corrected, so its hard to hold his early season stats against him.

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      1. That is extremely relevant to my criticism of him, so- thanks, Although, Olt hasn’t played any better since returning from his vision-related stint on the DL. Recently, Manny Ramirez noticed a flaw in Olt’s swing he has since corrected, but 2013 is pretty much a lost season for a guy who was a popular preseason ROY pick.

        The latest Olt rumor is a doozy:
        “One rumor states Profar, fellow prospect Mike Olt and a replaceable Rangers starting position player could be the Rangers’ deal for Sale and Rios, which would be very interesting in the final days before the 2013 MLB trade deadline.”
        Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2013/07/17/texas-rangers-rumors-trade-for-chris-sale-brewing-with-chicago-white-sox/?K1WSMdFeKry7bc6W.99

        The Rangers Org certainly does many things right, to continue to be so loaded amid much roster turnover. They, and not the Red Sox, should probably be Rube’s model, just because the Red Sox m.o. is so different from ours. However judging from their roster, the Rangers must spend some serious $ on international scouting, development and talent…I know we’ve made strides in recent years to become more competitive in that region, but with these top players being so young, we should have something to show for it by now. Sure we have Franco but they have Profar, Martin, Perez, Odor, Sardinas, Alfalo, Font, Andrus and of course Darvish…just off the top of my head, and probably a dozen other international signings we’d love to have in our org. I’ll quit before descending into another misallocated funding rant.

        WHY, JUST WHY COULDN’T WE HAVE SPENT MORE ON YOUNG TALENT BEFORE THEY CHANGED THE RULES!? ugh couldn’t help myself…Wade’s Revenge grumble grumble

        Remember Amaro’s “hot start” in the early 90s?…When he hit a few home runs to start the season, which made him the NL’s home run leader for a week or two? I wonder how that brief taste of success altered his psyche. You know he was on the top of the world for those couple weeks. Whenever I see him completely in his element: chomping a cigar, hiding behind ray bans, casually discussing “moving pieces” with his trademark smugness, I imagine him re-living those weeks, trying to recapture that fleeting self-fulfillment. I celebrated my 10th or 11th b-day at one of those games and sometimes wonder if my cheering continues to fuel his self-aggrandizement. Of course he’s Monty’s puppet, but I wonder what other deals were on the table, what other options were available, every time he made a significant move(or non-move).

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        1. Olt ironically enough is almost the same word in German for old, which he kinda is and if he doesnt turn it on a lot in the next couple of months , He should be gone from anyones top prospect list, I think he bombs , no speed , no pitch recognition , strikes out a bunch , and wont hit the ball enough for his 60 power to be a positive

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    2. You lost me when you said we have 5 projected major league catchers. We absolutely do not. We have one (Cameron Rupp), and a handful of others with the tools to have that CEILING. There’s a difference. Joseph, so far, is the only one of the others to have a breakout season, and now with his injuries we need to make sure he hasn’t lost any of what made him a good prospect before. Lino has tools to dream on, but he needs to put it all together. Sweaney and Knapp haven’t even proven they can stick behind the dish at the major league level yet, let a lone if their bat will play there. Again, they have tools that, if actualized, will allow them to succeed, but that doesn’t mean they’re projected to go anywhere. They just have a better chance than someone without their skill sets.

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      1. True, “5 future major leaguers at the catcher position” would’ve been more precise, but even that is a stretch considering their level. Few doubted Valle would someday play in the major leagues before he fell off a cliff after the Joseph acquisition. Despite his unsustainable BABIP and refusal to walk, Valle seemed to hit well enough and still is athletic enough to stick behind the plate. I’m certainly not suggesting we have 5 future major league regulars, but we’re just a good month away from having 5 legitimate catching prospects. We don’t have much to get excited about around here, sometimes you gotta get carried away just to have a topic to discuss.

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    3. Sano for all his raw power , and possible advanced aged (aka no one would verify his age and the reason why he went for so cheap to the twins) , doesnt seem to recognize pitches , he only hits things out of the park or weak grounders, Or has an awesome batting practice and provides the announcers with a bromance, wait that seems to me what keith law said about Franco. Who ( Franco) has adjusted well for being one of the youngest in the league and has such a bad swing and approach, its kinda a shame that Biddle had to pitch against him in the futures game, and probably knows some of his weaknesses. I think Bogaerts move to 3rd and is under powered at the position however hits for a good average probably made up for by Pedroia power and hits at second base

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      1. Bogaerts is actually showing more power than ever as a 20 year old in AAA: 7 hrs in just over 100 at bats. Without that I wouldn’t have included him.

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    1. The Phils are “in on” every Cuban, but haven’t signed one yet. Too bad they didn’t sign one of the young power hitting outfielders, despite badly needing youth, power and outfielders. With nowhere else to spend our money, Miguel Gonzalez would be a great “all he costs is money” investment, to solidify the middle of our rotation for the next few years. With no real pitching prospects outside of Biddle and Halladay as good as gone, the Phils clearly need a quality #3 starter. Rube won’t start the 2014 season with Kendricks as the #3, and even he’s due for a raise that will come close to Gonzalez’s price tag.

      There seem to be several lesser Cuban pitchers waiting for Gonzalez to set the market.

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      1. When you see a Cuban pitcher getting possibly $12m a year who’s never pitched in the MLB yet it shows how penny-wise/pound-foolish the Phillies approach for draft and international spending (prior to the limits being put in place by the 2012 new cba). How much better would the farm system been with even just half that $6m a year more put into the draft+international spending over several years?

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  19. Cody Asche scout’s take:
    Scout’s view: “I like this kid. He’s a tough grinder who gets after it every day. He reminds me of Darin Erstad and Pete Orr, physically. I see him being an everyday third baseman.”

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  20. Scouts View on Top Phillies Prospects:
    Maikel Franco,–Scout’s view: “He’s a young, energetic, and aggressive hitter with a big upside. I see him being a solid everyday third baseman. He reminds me of a young Edwin Encarnacion.”

    Jesse Biddle, –.Scout’s view: “A tough competitor who has a ways to go with control and command. I would say he’s a back-end-of-the-rotation starting pitcher.”

    Roman Quinn, -=Scout’s view: “He needs to work on his small ball because his game obviously revolves around speed, which is off the charts. He’s a little erratic on defense. He gloves everything, but has some problems throwing. I’m not sure he’ll be a shortstop, but I love his energy.”

    Cesar Hernandez, –Scout’s view: “He’s Freddy Galvis with more offensive upside. I see him as a solid but unspectacular major-league regular.”

    Tommy Joseph,–Scout’s view: “He’s really had a rough time. You almost have to view it as a lost season. Just get him healthy and push the reset button in 2014.”

    Ethan Martin, –Scout’s view: “I see this guy as a very serviceable bullpen piece. I don’t see him as a starter. His control and command are very spotty. I see him as a bullpen guy.”

    Adam Morgan, –Scout’s view: “I like him a lot. I see him as a more polished version of Biddle. I think he has better stuff, but I still see him as a number-four starter in the big leagues.”

    Kelly Dugan, –Scout’s view: “He was hurt when I was in Clearwater this year, but I liked him a lot last year at Lakewood. It’s impressive that he made it to double A this season.”

    Carlos Tocci, –Scout’s view: “If anybody is a projection guy, it’s him. He makes contact as a 17-year-old playing in a league with 22- and 23-year-olds. That, to me, is impressive. You just never know when it’s going to click in for these kinds of guys.”

    Shane Watson, –Scout’s view: “He’s got a ceiling as a top-of-the-rotation starter. His fastball was 89 to 93 [m.p.h.] in April, and he has the ability for more. His curveball is potentially an out pitch. I think he’s maturing, and in the second half he could make some noise. Everything is advanced for his age.”
    Cameron Perkins, –Scout’s view: “I like him a lot. He’s a line-drive hitter with gap power and he played a very good outfield. He could be a guy flying underneath the radar.”

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