Hard to believe, but there remains only about 6 1/2 weeks in the minor league season. Full season leagues are passing the 2/3 mark of their campaigns. Guys who haven’t had a lot of success to date have one last push to improve their stock going into instructs/fall and winter ball. I’ll guess a couple of hard charging closers here – guys who six weeks from now could be pushing us all to consider their so-far mediocre years a success.
AAA: Ethan Martin – Martin pitched pretty well last year after his trade to the Phils, (though contrary to what seems to be conventional wisdom, it doesn’t seem he improved over his time with the Dodgers AA affiliate – his BB rate went down, but so did his K Rate, while his FIP and his HR Rate went up in his 7 game sample with Reading). Either way, I’m looking for Martin to limit his walks ove the last 6 weeks. If he manages to have a BB/9 of 3.5 or so the rest of the year, without sacrificing Ks and more hits, I’d call this year a success and look for a more consistent AAA season in 2014 to push him into consideration for the big league rotation.
AA: Kyle Simon – Fresh off the DL, Simon will get a chance to show why people were so high on him this past off-season. If he’s really healthly, I could see him getting back to the rates he showed at Reading in 2012 – something like 7.5-8 K/9 and less than 2 BB/9 the rest of the way, and he’ll punch his ticket for AAA in the spring and the big league bullpen next summer, if all goes well.
A+: Chris Serritella – We know he had a mediocre start, but the power’s started to come a little bit more lately. He had 3HR as of June 20, and has 5 since then. If he ends up with 13-15 on the year, and an OPS closer to .800 than .700, you could be looking at a Top 10 Rounds college senior progressing fairly well, starting AA in his 3rd year, and looking to force his way towards the bigs with his bat.
A-: Mitch Walding – He started off pretty well again this year, but has faded substantially. I’m looking for a bit of a hitting surge as we get into the last third of the year. He’s nearly 21 years old, and so just barely passing Lakewood isn’t good enough for his prospect status. He’s got to show a resurgence from his nearly 3 months of sub-par hitting. If he OPSes somewhere around .800 for the last 6 weeks, I’ll be happy with his progress.
Baby Steps:
Kevin Brady – I would be satisfied just to see him pitch again this year with any success. He was taken out of the Lakewood rotation and sent back to XST after he went on a base-on-ball binge, and has yet to return to an active roster.
Franklyn Vargas – Would like to see him back in the rotation at GCL, at the least, before the end of the year. He’s languishing in the pen right now, having walked 11 batters in 6 innings. With numbers like that, you have to hope they’re working on something in particular with him – maybe a mechanical change of some sort.
Guys who need a HUGE finish:
Larry Greene – Too easy to point to his latest run of fair hitting and say keeping up that pace will make his 2013 a success. He’d have to go on a real tear, maybe finishing in double digit homeruns with under 30% strikeouts for me to call this year a plus. Otherwise, his biggest success story of the next 9 months might be playing in shape from day 1 in 2014.
Brian Pointer – He gets on base plenty, runs well, hits with a little pop, (ISO around .135)but really, if his year is to vault him into any kind of prospect status, he’s got to make more contact. A guy with as little longball power as he’s showing can’t be striking out 25% of the time. If he can get that rate below 20% by the end of the year, and his OPS around .800, that would be a sign of something. If not, I’m going to have a hard time considering him for the back end of the Top 30.
So, what say you? Who am I missing.
Phuture Phillies 
I think Cord Sandberg and Shane Watson will finish the year strong too
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I’m not sure why Pointer would be a consideration for the back end of the top 30, either way. He was drafted in 2010, and is still in low A. He is already a level behind, the real prospects from his class, and having a mediocre year at the lower level.
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Because he is one of the few guys in the system that knows how to take a walk.
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When you sit at the same level for close to 2 seasons, you should have the ability to do that.
Art Charles has better numbers than Brian Pointer, and is the same age. If Brian Pointer is top 30, then I guess Art Charles is top 30.
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Speed and defense come into play here also. Art Charles is a 1B who’s likely no more than org filler. If Pointer could hit more, he could be a big-league CF/4th OFer candidate.
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Both players (pointer and charles) are organiztional filler.
“If Pointer could hit more…”
That’s the point. If anybody could hit more, they could project to be a major leaguer. Pointer has never hit, and he is a level behind.
For all of the criticism that Larry Greene and Walding take, they are still performing nearly as well as Pointer, at their correct level.
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His full-year at GCL was a pretty good offensive season – he OPSed .856 in just shy of 200 PAs. They tried to double jump him last year and it failed. It’s the Aaron Altherr path right now, except Altherr made it to WIL in his second year, (Pointer signed late and only had a handful of PA in his first year), then they both started Lakewood and failed in their third year.
If Pointer breaks out the rest of this season, with his speed and his premium defensive abilities, (as they’ve been described to me by people who are admittedly not scouts), I call him a prospect in the Altherr mold. Not as athletic, perhaps, but Pointer hit 10 HR last year, and Altherr has not yet reached 10 in any year, (he likely will this year), so the power might be greater than Altherr or at least equivalent, and Pointer has drawn 36 walks so far this year – Altherr drew 38 all year last year, with similar K rates.
If Pointer can’t do what I said above, then probably he’s not a Top 30 contender. I just think he’s shown flashes that maybe he could be ready to figure it out.
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I agree on Pointer. He’s shown some power, defense, and speed. If he increases his contact rates by the end of the year, he’ll be in the Top 30
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Pointer has tools, mainly all of you are looking solely at numbers, he can run (20 Ab’s). He plays a very good defense in cf and also both corner spots, he has some pop. Currently 19 doubles and 5 home runs and he has an aver major league arm. That’s what plays in the big leagues. That’s what makes an extra outfielder. Now if he hits for aver – which he will someday / now you have an everyday big leaguer. Scout the bodies and the tools. Quit looking at the numbers all the time. He is 6′ foot and 195 lbs and is strong.
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Comparison to Altherr’s progression through the system is fair. Though Altherr performed a little better through his 1st 4 seasons, and has better tools.
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20 stolen bases 5 home runs 19 doubles and very good defense in all 3 outfield spots that’s why. Only altherr and Zachary green have numbers like that – excluding older players up in AAA.
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Tyson Gillies, but he’ll be doing it in the Majors come September, and possibly sooner.
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Adam Morgan is a player that could show he is healthy and get his stock back to the level expected. Shane Watson, once he comes of his tired arm break, could re-establish his prospect status. Mitch Gueller needs to finish strong in NYP, to stay near the top 20. If Larry Greene will not re-establish his pre-season status, but if he finishes the last 6 weeks, hitting the way he has the last 4 weeks, he will probably have done enough to get promoted. Jose Pujols needs to step it up quite a bit, if he wants to follow Tocci, Santana and Valle as double jump candidates to full-season.
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Recent contusion aside, Tommy Joseph.
And Sebastian Valle. I keep dropping him and almost feel like I’m rooting against him. I’m not though – I’m pulling for the guy. Hoping he can bat .260ish in the 2nd half and hit 9-10 homers. Off to a rough start here in July though
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On that note, happy 22nd birthday, TJ!
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fangraphs has bidddle and franco in top 50
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Stewart
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It’s funny. As I was reading your write-up on Larry Greene, I was thinking to myself “Self: yeah, it would be nice for him to finish strong, BUT the real sign as to his possible future successes will be what he looks like when he shows up in camp in February. If he shows up out of shape – again – write him off” 2 sentences later, I see you basically said the same thing.
I will be interested in watching Ethan Martin as well. He is no longer a kid – he is now 24. I haven’t seen his recent starts, but he went on a nice string a few weeks back in which he seemed to put things together. If he can continue this, he moves back to a guy that you could envision having some sort of MLB career. If he fails to show command/control, he fades from my thoughts as a possible future starter.
Another guy I think of – yeah – I know he graduated – Darin Ruf. He will get another month+ to show what he has. Based on his pedestrian #’s in AAA, I think many of us have tamed out hopes for Darin, but I would still like to see how he does against MLB pitching for an extended period of time.
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Great minds, doing what they do on LGj.
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I am concerned about Ruf, although it is a very very small sample size so far. He is batting .321, but it is being fueled by an astronomical BABIP of .583. He is striking out in 50% of his at bats. Hopefully, with more at bats, he will make more contact.
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Joseph and Morgan are the two obvious ones for me along with Gillies and Giles. I have hope that all four of these guys can salvage their season with a strong finish and put themselves in close proximity to the majors. In addition, LGJ can certainly show us something plus isn’t Quinn due back in August?
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Quinn is due to return about mid-August
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So Id like to see Franco continue his torrid pace , and Cody Asche (larry) to push his average above 300 and double his homerun count. It would also be nice if Adam Morgan can return to last years dominance
What happened to JP Crawford , I havent seen his name in the recent box scores
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Played in both games in yesterday’s double header
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my bad , I thought he missed a couple of box scores , didnt play today but i guess thats what happens when you play both games of a double header
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I’m excited by the progress Anthony Hewitt has made. I am looking forward to seeing Anthony Hewitt get his OPS north of 760, with a OBP of 300 and an SLG of at least 450, a BA over 250 for the first time in his career and end with a career high of at least 17 HR.
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Ken, seriously, there is less than a one percent chance he becomes a major league regular and probably less than a 5% chance that he gets steady work in the majors. He’s really not a prospect any more.
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Hewitt signed for over a million dollars and was a first round pick. He will literally have to have an arm fall off before the Phillies either get rid of him or consider him a lost cause. My bet is he will someday wear a big league inform….first rounders with big bonuses stick around forever, even if they don’t necessarily “deserve” it. Time will tell I guess.
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Not necessarily but 1st rounders who put in the work, still have major league tools, and are good guys stick around until a prospect forces him off. Hewitt’s issues don’t come from a lack of work and effort, he physically cannot distinguish a offspeed pitch from a fastball fast enough to be a major league player.
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I didn’t say he is a prospect, just that he is making progress. More to the point of this post’s title “Guessing On Strong Finishers”, I expect to him to have a strong finish. I expect Hewitt will end up a AAA regular who cannot hit in the majors. But he still has his exceptional speed, arm, and power tools, a good attitude and work ethic, and his bat is improving, so I think it is still too early to rule out him becoming at least a fourth outfielder. He has 2000 minor league plate appearances. Coming from a cold weather high school, he may need another 1000 appearances before he learns pitch recognition.
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I’d guess Walding and Tocci have a strong last few weeks, hopefully LGJ keeps it up
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I’m actually pretty pessimistic about Tocci finishing strong. His monthly OPS:
April: .472
May: .646
June: .575
July: .441
So after a slow start, he adjusted to A-ball, but has since been tailing off. My guess is that he’s probably wearing down a bit over the course of the long season. I would be quite happy if he maintains his .553 OPS the rest of the way.
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In a recent interview Joe Jordan has indicated that they expect Tocci to be wearing down and rather than demote him they are going to give him more days off (something that has already started) to give him rest.
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