One of the biggest moments in a prospect’s development is making the 40-man roster because it puts them in the position to be called up to the majors at any time. Additionally, it comes with an invite to major league training camp. Not making the 40-man is not the end for a prospect, but it can indicate a lot about their position in the organization.
That being said, for those prospects on the bubble of consideration their inclusion can depend on whether their profile is attractive to another team looking to make a pick in the Rule V draft. In addition to Rule V picks the Phillies have a trio of interesting OFs that will be eligible for minor league free agency.
Locks:
Cameron Rupp: Rupp’s lack of overall upside has been stated many times on this site, but there is no doubt that he could be a solid major league back up to open 2014. Almost any team would love to pick up that type of player for $50,000 in the Rule V making him a must protect.
Tommy Joseph: Given Joseph’s pedigree and position, as well as the investment made in him there is little way they would risk losing him in the draft.
Kelly Dugan: Phillies management seems to like Dugan and he has at least a ceiling of a major league regular. Now that he has made AA and likely punched a ticket to the AFL it would be hard to justify exposing him to the draft. A team drafting him could easily justify that he would be a LF pinch hitter who could play both OF corners and 1B.
Very Likely:
Aaron Altherr: Altherr has all of the tools you are looking for in a prospect but the hit tool is still developing slowly and a strikeout rate is near 30%. That being said the Phillies have worked hard on making him into a better baseball player and he has more upside than most of their system. A trip to AA or the AFL would likely move him to lock in my mind.
Brody Colvin: Colvin hasn’t really done anything to justify being added to the 40 man roster. However he is young while still flashes premium stuff and a team could easily talk themselves into hiding him a bullpen hoping they can work out his control issues and become either a dominant reliever or mid-rotation starter.
Seth Rosin: I went from not believing in Rosin to really thinking that he could be a solid #4/#5 starter in the major leagues. Even if another team does not see him as a starter he could be a solid middle reliever with a plus fastball and two average pitches. His stuff right now is better than David Herndon when the Phillies drafted him.
Something left to Prove:
Perci Garner: Despite a hot start to the season Garner has essentially repeated much of the problems that held him back in Clearwater. At this point his future is in the bullpen and the sooner the Phillies move him there, the quicker he can get up to the majors. His raw stuff gives him a bit more upside then other guys on this list in high level bullpens.
Nick Hernandez: If Hernandez was right-handed he wouldn’t be anywhere near this list. Even then the raw numbers say non-prospect while the peripheral numbers say back end starter. If those numbers are the truth and he gets a promotion up to Reading then suddenly he his in the discussion for a spot on the roster or in the draft. There really isn’t any projection left, you are just looking for him to get results.
Unlikely:
Tyler Knigge: Given the glut of relief pitchers on the 40 man roster already it is going to be difficult to justify a guy who is essentially just a plus fastball with poor command that can’t miss bats.
Edgar Duran: Duran’s glove just is not special enough and the bat just isn’t there for any team to stash him for a year. He likely needs another year in AA before you can say whether he has a future or not.
Kyrell Hudson: At some point you have to hit the baseball and Hudson just hasn’t to this point. He has no risk of being selected in the Rule 5 draft due to the amount of development left and the lack of major league utility.
David Buchanan: Buchanan is the kind of player that you look at and don’t see the stuff but somehow still makes the big leagues. He hasn’t dominated like Austin Hyatt but the profile isn’t remarkably different. A move to the bullpen could get him there as a borderline reliever.
Minor League Free Agents:
Often lost in the shuffle of the Rule 5 draft are minor league free agents. These players may be on the fringes but sometimes a player with real talent hits the market and all it takes is an invite to major league camp to draw them out.
Anthony Hewitt: The Phillies like Hewitt and as far as I can tell Hewitt likes the Phillies. I don’t think he is worth protecting on the roster and he is certainly someone who will draw interest. But ultimately I think the Phillies will dangle the carrot of AAA and a non-roster invite to major league camp. At the rate Hewitt has been improving it may take another 6 years for him to make it but he certainly still has some exciting tools left.
Jiwan James: James is a great defensive CF but the bat hasn’t really caught up. He is a great guy who will likely get an offer to play elsewhere given the lack of playing time available in CF.
Leandro Castro: Castro does not offer the tool laden package of the other two names on this list but he does provide decent RH pop from all three OF positions making him an interesting 4th OF option. The plate discipline is below where you would want it but he is a guy that a team would certainly offer a spring training invite to see if they have a major leaguer. If the Phillies don’t put him on the 40 man roster is likely gone this winter. On the major league level he can provide much of the role provided by John Mayberry, with better OF defense.
Phuture Phillies 
Agree on most of these, but I’d be shocked to see Colvin protected unless a plague wiped out half of the existing 40-man roster.
Speaking of which, I guess the companion piece to this is “who goes from the 40-man to fit these guys?” Collier and Gillies are tough ones, for instance.
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That is a piece much easier to write after the trade deadline. Right now Ramirez, Savery, Collier (unlikely), Valle, Cloyd, Valdes seem to be the minor league candidates (remember that Lannan, Youngs, McDonald, Halladay, Nix, and Mayberry could all be gone off the major league side)
Colvin is an asset management call. You don’t just give away arms like that, he seems like the type who rides the roster for 2 years more to see if you can put him in the bullpen and make something out of him. But I could see them leaving him off.
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They have a full 40 now. Here are a few buckets:
Possible free agents: Halladay, Chooch, Utley, Young, Young, Frandsen*, Nix, Quintero, Lannan*, McDonald
60 day DL: Mike Adams (injury could linger)
Low talent: Garcia, Ramirez, Savery, Valle, Collier, Gillies
That’s 17 names who might not be on the 40 man next year without considering trades. Some of those fringy pitchers I didn’t mention could find themselves elsewhere too.
With that much movement possible, I think we’ll see Gillies and Collier retain their spots into next season. Obviously, the rest of the season will have some effect on that too.
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They have a full 42 now. And there is no 60 day DL in the offseason I believe. And a couple of the possible free agents are likely to be replaced by people not mentioned that aren’t currently on the 40-man. M Young->Asche, D. Young->FA signing. Halladay-> FA signing.
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Have the Phils signed Denton Keys .. They have not reported it on their site ?
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Everyone else is reporting it and BA has the signing number (350k)
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Matt – correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the players added to the 40-man for the first time get a decent salary raise – about $40k (total salasry) on the minor league side if I recall correctly.
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I’m not sure I’d add Atherr. I’m torn a bit on it, but I think he’d get killed in the Majors right now and it’s incredibly hard to stash a Rule 5 OF on the 25 man than it is to stash a Pitcher in the way back of the bullpen for a full season. I tend to think that if Altherr got picked, he’d end up getting offered back in ST or shortly into the season. Of course, then I realize that for no discernable reason the Phillies kept the completely useless and devoid of MLB value Michael Martinez on the 25 man for a full season, so perhaps a team could be doltish enough to stash Altherr (though it would be awful for his development).
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No mention of Valle. IMO, his space should be used for another.
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I’ll bet someone from this list is traded shortly as a throw in. One less guy to protect… I actually think Rosin is a lock also but I could see guys like Altherr, Colvin, Hewitt, and Buchannan as trade throw ins. The hope is that RAJ doesn’t trade anyone we really like…
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Agree with you on Rosin. I like Dugan as well. It’ll be an interesting time before the deadline. I think there are a few guys who could be moving on.
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I think Altherr offers the most talent I’d be willing to trade. He does have great athleticism and could become a quality starter in CF. All the tools could be there including speed and power (for CF). But his is risking and for that reason I’d be okay if he was a trade chip to a team thinking of him as a good prospect.
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I will be sad to see Jiwan James go. He should since he could get some Major League time just for his defense and speed.
Castro just does not provide the upside and has no prospect value due to his situation. He is another guy that would be nice to have available but not being on 40-man does not give him much chance. I’d just like to see how he does starting for a 10-game stretch in the majors.
Due to the Pence trade Rosin will be protected. Amaro will not want to look that bad.
I think Altherr will be in AFL and his results will likely determine his status. Maybe decision is between Collier and Altherr, I’d protect neither just due to little chance of any success in Majors next year.
I leave off Colvin too little production for another team to bother. Tools are there but they’d be taking a 40-man spot on that team as well.
I hope Hewitt feels bad taking $1M+ to stink and remains with Phillies for one more season just to see what happens.
Rest of the guys have no chance unless something extraordinary happens.
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Rosin should be protected. Unless he figures out some command (lol) Colvin shouldn’t, and I don’t think Altherr should be either unless he gets called up to AA, which I don’t see happening since they have so many OFers in Reading anyway.
Collier can probably come off the 40 man, but they would be absolutely OUT OF THEIR FRIGGIN MINDS to take Gillies off of it. Gillies could be a 5th OF TODAY. A young guy with a high ceiling that’s under team control for 6 years wouldn’t make it to the Marlins on the waiver wire.
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“I hope Hewitt feels bad taking $1M+ to stink and remains with Phillies for one more season just to see what happens.”
Everything I’ve read about him says his work ethic is good, It’s the scouting deparment should feel bad for the big overdraft. Plus he was 19 when they drafted him so they took a big chance that they could quickly develop such a raw player even though he had to be added to the 40 man a year before most high school players.
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