General Discussion – Week of 7-15-2013 – All-Star Edition

Weekly Discussion

GUYS IT’S ALL-STAR WEEK!!!!!!!!!

Wow. Nine exclamation points. Seems like I’m excited. Pretty sure I’m not, though.

…wait…hang on…Ok, no. I’m not.

Discuss.

66 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 7-15-2013 – All-Star Edition”

  1. I think promoting Hernandez or Gillies is as good as any available MLB players available on the trade market. The only one I can think of that would be useful, and we would not have to give away any real legit prospects, is Rajah Davis. Speedy, can field a little, and would be a great pinch runner/4th OF down the stretch when Revere gets back.

    Like

    2. Gillies, after a horrible start to the season, and 3 years of injury and mediocrity int he Phillies farm system, has had a nice couple of weeks. IMO that doesn’t begin to make him ready to take over for Revere.

      Hernendez as a hitter is a lot closer to being major league ready than Gillies, but, whatever the organization says, the center field experiment is most likely in preparation for a potential bench role next year. A guy who has never played the outfield isn’t going to be able to learn to do so in a couple of weeks of AA games.

      The simple fact is that putting Mayberry there, deficient as it is, is of course the best option that the team has by a considerable margin.

      Like

    3. I think Davis would be fairly cheap to acquire. He will be a FA who the Bluejays do not need either now nor next year. His salary is something they’d probably not want to keep paying if they did not have to. If all it took was a fringe minor league reliever and take all his salary, that’d be great.
      I’d certainly like to have him for cheap CF but he also hits righties poorly and mashes lefties which is redundant to Mayberry.

      Like

    2. Seriously? He’s got a .698 OPS in Double-A. This is a guy you would have wanted on the Phillies major league roster for an entire season?

      Like

  3. If there was an all star team for guys who post minor league box scores on minor league baseball web sites Bradindc would get my vote as starter.

    Like

  4. Favorite Phillies All-Star moments:

    1) Kruk having his moment with Randy Johnson (yeah, I know they were hamming it up, but admit it, we all would have been bailing out of there with a 98 MPH heater coming at us)

    2) Bobby Abreu -2005 HR Derby. For those that need a reminder:
    Comerica Park. Abreu hit 24 home runs in the first round. The outfielder only hit six in the second round, but still had 30 entering the final round of the All-Star competition.
    Abreu had already broken Miguel Tejada’s record for most single derby home runs by three bombs, and he still had the final round to go. He hit 11 home runs in the final round to win the title. He finished the night with 41 HR’s

    Since that magical night in Detroit, few have come close to breaking Abreu’s record. Josh Hamilton hit 35 homers back in 2008. Ortiz and Robinson Cano sit in third place on the all-time list with 32 bombs each.

    Like

    1. Abreu’s HR Derby win was the worst thing for the Phils, His second half that year was terrible. Some said it was bcause of the derby, he couldn’t hit a lick. He changed his swing and somehow got locked into it.

      Best Phillies All-Stat moment was 1964. Johnny Callison’s 3 run walk off HR against Dick Radatz, who might have been the 1st “closer” in MLB history. Of course that was the year, the Phils blew a 6 1/2 game lead with 12 to play to miss the playoffs. I was 8 years old and I knew what Red Sox fans felt like for those 90+ years of losing. I felt like bringing a Billy Goat to games after that. (anyone that doesn’t get that last reference, Google “Billy Goat Cubs”.)

      Like

  5. Want to talk briefly about defensive metrics and D. Brown.

    Preface – defensive metrics have their limits, are less reliable than hitting metrics, and are especially subject to sample size issues. But IMO they generally are more reliable than the subjective impressions of the typical fan (probably NOT better than the subjective impressions of a professional talent evaluator).

    Anyway, this season the two main metrics diverged in evaluating Brown. One showed him essentially average. The other showed him a bit below average, improved from prior years but still projected to be about 8 runs below average over the course of a season.

    Well, the latest metrics both show him about average, maybe just a hair below.

    Take that FWIW, but still nice to see.

    Like

      1. Easily. fWAR (2.2 WAR already) projects out to 3.7 WAR for the season. rWAR … is less clear. If I’m reading it right, it has him at 3.2 already, projecting out to 5.4. That seems high. No idea why the gap would be that large – usually differences in the evaluation systems are a product of differing defensive metrics, which as I said does not seem to be the case here.

        The fact that gaps that wide are possible is one reason I use WAR with caution. But even 3.7 WAR is pretty darn good, and better than even the most optimistic projections preseason.

        (Note that those projections are straight line projections based on the season to date. Systems which incorporate prior data project him lower. ZiPs, for example, projects him to finish with 2.9 WAR.)

        Like

        2. I think the difference might be that BR’s defensive war includes the positional adjustment, while fangraphs’ UZR is just the defensive number. Defensive runs saved actually has Brown slightly above average. When you consider the difference between that and his bad UZR, then knock him a little more for his positional adjustment for fWar, it accounts for the difference.

          Like

          1. That could explain a small part of it, if you’re correct. About 4 runs of a 10 run differential.

            At some point I may want to look at it a little more closely. Incidentally, I wouldn’t characterize the UZR as “bad” at this point. As I said, it’s about neutral. It gets updated weekly, and jumped about 3 1/2 runs over the past week. (Yeah, that seems odd and is one reason to take SSS defensive metrics with a large grain of salt. He did have at least one OF assist over the past week and maybe I missed another – his arm rating is well above average, whereas his range is still below average,)

            Like

    2. When i see Dom playing D, i still see a guy who isn’t that bad out there but will occasionally make some bad reads that cost him a play he should otherwise make. I don’t see a lot of misplays on routine balls like when he first came up. I think on a pure catching the baseball basis he is probably around average in the field. However, his arm is both strong and accurate and he has made good use of it in throwing out baserunners so i think when factoring that in he has to be considered at least an average defensive outfielder

      Like

      1. And that’s more or less what the metrics say. It’s interesting to me that, more often than not, the defensive metrics do a fairly good job of reflecting intelligent subjective observations. The exceptions tend to be guys like Utley, who are just exceptionally good at positioning, or (in the other direction) guys like Ibanez who are pretty sure handed but have the range of a lamppost.

        Like

  6. theres a stupid commenter in BR saying that Galvis sucks and he has no future even though he can play ss 2nd 3rd and corner outfield id call that versatility and his glove and nice MLB career. AND he thinks that Maikel Franco is going to and COULD play shortstop in the MLB next year because beeny looper said he is getting reps there in the winter league even though the double A manger said that there is nobody thinking about moving franco or ashce form 3rd right now. He is delusional right

    Like

  7. In advance of the deadline and Amaro possibly making a dumb decision to trade prospects for an OFer of bullpen piece (please don’t do it Rube) who would you consider untouchable except under the most extreme circumstances – say trading for Stanton.

    I would say Franco, Biddle, Quinn, Tocci, and Crawford (if he can be traded this year?)

    Anyone disagree with Quinn still being there? Should I have included Morgan or any of the younger high ceiling guys?

    Like

    1. I think Franco, Biddle and Crawford are probably the three most untouchables in the system. Tocci is a good one too, as is Quinn, but I don’t see another team insisting on either of those players so I think they’re unlikely to be in play though not necessarily untouchable.

      Like

      1. Right Riggs. Thought about that shortly after my post but got bored looking for the confirming provision in the CBA. Thanks for pointing that out though

        Like

  8. Looks like Mets are rumored to be talking to the Marlins about acquiring Stanton with bait being two possibly three of their highly regarded pitching prospects, not named Harvey or Wheeler. So asumed they would be Syndergaard, Montero, Familia and/or Fulmer. Anybody hear anything else on this?

    Like

  9. With the ASB (not ABS) upon us, here’s a realistic midseason top 10 from my perspective.

    1. Biddle LHP: will be 22 in AAA next spring, waiting to get called up while the phillies lock up an extra year of service for him. elite curveball, big athletic 6’4″ frame, easy delivery. will log alot of innings in red pinstripes starting next summer.

    2. Franco 3B: will turn 21 in less than 6 weeks, may have next year to work on “pitch recognition” however, a .360 OBP, .257 ISO, and an excellent K% during his age 20 season make him the best position prospect on the farm. He is the future at third, starting as early as next summer. He is the right-handed bat we all deserve.

    3. Crawford SS: given the way he has performed in the GCL, it wouldn’t be surprising if he was the Lakewood SS next year at age 19. Has smooth actions and a plus arm in the field. Has good instincts and athleticism. Easy to envision an above-average defensive shortstop, who is excellent on the basepaths, and mixes it up with a little pop. .280/.340/.450 sound good?

    4. Quinn SS: roman gets this spot due to the elite run tool. His stolen base total projected over 162 games is around 80 based off his minor league numbers. His run tool will help his power as taking extra bases on hits increases .ISO. A projected middle of the diamond player oozing with potential even if the switch-hitting and shortstop projects fail.

    5. Tocci CF: carlos rounds out the top 5. tocci was considered for the fourth spot, but quinn’s elite speed gave him the nod. before you look at this (Tocci is player D), remember, carlos does not have the right to purchase tobacco products.
    player A: 8.1 BB% / 21.7K%
    player B: 6.9 BB% / 14.4K%
    player C: 6.6 BB% / 30.7K%
    player D: 6.2 BB% / 15.5 K%
    These are all players at Lakewood. Player A is Aaron Altherr at 21, player B is Maikel Franco at 19, and player C is Domingo Santana at 18. I like how similar Tocci’s BB/K rates are with Franco’s (2 years younger, 1 inch taller). Domingo struck out TWICE as much as Carlos despite being a year older (It would be criminal to list Domingo’s K rate as a 17 year old Blueclaw). Tocci is an impressive player w/ plus instincts who will be a top 5 prospect in this system for a while. Could he be patrolling CF in Clearwater next year?

    6. Morgan LHP: the shoulder made him miss time; has better stuff than Kendrick, Pettibone, and Lannan. If he’s completely healthy, he has the talent to open 2014 in philly’s rotation. Missing the top 5 is indicative of other prospects (Franco, Tocci) taking steps forward, a 16th overall pick, and two players with an elite tool, respectively. Hopefully some quality starts are on the horizon.

    7. Asche 3B: guess this is where he falls. Some don’t see him as a regular. In 957 PA’s (over the past 2 seasons across 3 levels), Asche sports a .309/.361/.469 line and improves his production monthly once settling in to a level (.683 April OPS, .784 May OPS, .896 June OPS, .800+ July OPS). He should be penciled in the Phillies lineup everyday once Michael Young gets traded for a bagel with creamcheese.

    8. Hernandez 2B/CF: He would be the Phillies 2B if Chase vanished off the face of the 40-man. Until then, he will be playing CF to increase his defensive versatility. He will showcase talent in the majors (this year: .372 OBP, 20 XBH, 27 SB’s in 351 AAA PA’s). A 23 year-old switch-hitter with plus speed.

    9. Gonzalez RHP: Severino, yes. Why? He’s 20 and has 64 strikeouts/6 walks in under 50 innings. The simple dominance of A ball has gotten him noticed. He is someone with a floor of Julio Rodriguez and a ceiling of Jair Jurrjens in his heyday.

    10. Cozens RF: a 19 year old with exceptional athleticism, solid plate-discipline, and plus raw power. Will make some noise next year.

    In terms of tiers:
    blue chip prospects: Biddle, Franco
    potential blue chip prospects: Crawford, Quinn, Tocci
    solid prospects: Morgan, Asche, Hernandez

    After the iron-pig trio, there was no obvious selection. Rather than place Joseph and Martin in spots 9 and 10 based on merit, I took 2 sleepers in Severino and Cozens. The system seems to be lacking an advanced RHP prospect to rival with LHP prospects Biddle/Morgan/Mecias/Wright. I would call up Baltimore and sell Cliff Lee for a package headlined by Dylan Bundy. If this trade happens (which it won’t, hey Ruben), this is now a top 15 farm system.

    anyway, 11-20

    11. Dugan
    12. Martin
    13. Joseph
    14. Knapp
    15. Sandberg
    16a. Altherr
    16b. Perkins
    17. Green
    18. Rosin
    19. Watson
    20. Gueller

    Like

    1. I like this, particularly the top seven. In fact, I don’t think I’d change the order … maybe Franco over Biddle, but I go back and forth on those two. Watson is way too low IMO … I’d have him 8th, followed by Joseph at 9 and Hernandez at 10.

      Like

    2. I like Crawford at no. 3. K-rate down to 16% in past 10 games, 3 BBs in past 4 games. Granted his ratios can change in a hurry with such a SSS size, but he’s truly off to a great start. I’d like to see him maintain a 15-16% K-rate the rest of the year, and keep the BBs coming.

      Like

    1. Great piece by Mitch. And concur with his reasonnig behind the JP selection at 15, at this point in time.

      Like

      1. It is very interesting. I think Crawford should be in the top 5, but overall, I like his perspective. I am very pleased on his report on Pullin, but a little disappointed in Gueller who I have always perceived to be a “big arm.” And I’m glad he agrees on the electric talent of Roman Quinn and the almost stealth like emergence of Cody Asche, who does notthing but improve and impress.

        Like

    1. I would seek center field help or relief help for MYoung. Interesting that Rosenthal states that Phils have no internal replacement for Young. Asche?, Fransen? are two players I would rather see than MYoung at third.

      Like

    2. Maybe an outside shot at Bryce Brentz for Michael Young since Sox outfiled may be log-jammed for him getting into it in 2014.

      Like

      1. I think Brentz is certainly in play but it is more because he looks like a guy more in the John Mayberry Jr mold then an everyday starter.

        But given the marginal difference between Young and his replacements it is certainly worth a flyer on someone with Brentz’s talent

        Like

      2. Brentz plays out as a RF more then CF, then Mayberry would be relegated to CF in Revere’s abscence. But still, if the Sox were willing to give him for Young I would not hesitate.

        Like

  12. im having trouble on where to rank Yoel Mecias. i had him in my top 15 but now since tommy john surgery. i dont know where to put him. leave him there? mid 20’s?

    Like

    1. That’s a tough rank, he was really impressive this year and the injury is really unfortunate

      Like

    2. I personally ranked him #11 on my mid-season list and I am definitely dropping him way down the list. It doesn’t have as much to do with the arm being a concern going forward, as much as he needed the time to work on the breaking ball and building arm strength and this sets back that development at least a year. I would expect to see him getting some innings in late 2014 and ramping up in Fall Instructs. The changeup has to make me at least sneak him into the back of the Top 30 for now, but it certainly is a huge drop and one that makes you think he might end up in the bullpen.

      Like

    3. TJ recipients lately have come back stronger then in previous years, ie pre-90s. Unless pitchers have to have a 2nd TJ procedure, then their success rate is like 30% from what I read after Kyle Drabek and Scott Mathieson 2nd surgeries. I have Mecias in the late teens somewhere.

      Like

  13. totally random….but let’s say the Phils hold onto MYoung and Utley et al
    I figure Utley would be a Type A along with Doc (minimal chance of THAT getting’ picked up. What about MYoung??? is there a way to ascertain that in July???
    like I said, somewhat random…..plus, Young probably has more value as a trade chip.

    Like

    1. There is no type A anymore. The only way to get a draft pick would be to offer Utley, Young, etc a (not sure what the number is exactly but it is around) 12 mil 1 year deal. M Young and Ruiz would accept that contract in about 3 seconds. Only Utley has enough value to get another team to give him a 2 to 3 year deal while giving up their first round choice. All the other Phillies FA’s at the end of the year would accept the 1 year deal knowing that no team will forfeit a pick for them and no contract would match a 1 yr 12 mil.

      Like

  14. The next 9-games may decide Phillies to be either sellers or buyers. Mets will throw young studs and then there comes the Cardinals and Tigers with Verlander, Porcello and who else. IMO, the Phillies will be sellers by 30 July.

    Like

    1. IMO the Phillies will continue to tread water around .500 through the end of July. I think they take 2 out of 3 from the Mets and then lose 4 out of 6 to the Cards & Tigers. That puts them at at .500 a week from tomorrow and then 2 games under .500 heading into July 30th’s home series against the Giants.

      Like

  15. Poor Pettibone. At St Louis and at Detroit next week. Big test for the kid. Hopefully he could give us a couple 6/3s.

    Like

    1. At St. Louis without Cole or Cliff scares me. The Phils need to pull off a sweep in NY the next two days and go into Busch with some swagger.

      Like

      1. Right. Really need to win today and then try to manage 3 wins next week. Our bullpen against Detroit and St Louis on the road is a scary thought

        Like

        1. Steve, neither Detroit or St. Louis have good bullpens also. There could be some high scoring games next week.

          Like

  17. Time for the phillies to start a household cleaning. When your two aces, lee and hamels at 50 million dollars. cant match up against the mets top two pitchers or the washington nationals, its time to change your rotation. lee and hamels cant match other teams aces,

    Like

    1. roccom- start a household cleaning……change the rotation! I hear frustration more then anything at this point. I feel your pain. But other then Paps and Michael Young, wanting to trade pitchers, like a Lee, which I assume you want, would really throw the team into a very fast downward spiral. If Paps can get yuo a decent prospect and Young also one decent porspect also, perhaps that is what you need. In the next two years you will need to assimilate Biddle, Franco and Ache onto the club so the changeover is coming without completely gutting it now.

      Like

    2. Hamels hasn’t generally been able to in this off-season for him, but that situation need not be permanent. Winter frequently cures a lot of ills, especially ills of the mental variety. Lee was in the same predicament last season and has done very well this year. I wouldn’t say that Lee was generally unable to match up to the other teams’ best, although he is going through a rough spot in which he is giving up a lot of HR. All-in-all Lee has pitched very well this season and should be a part of the Phillies future, as should Hamels. Guys do have bad weeks, months, even seasons. It is when the problems stretch to multiple years as with Howard that one really worries about the player.

      Like

    3. At least they get a break with the Cardinals and Tigers coming up …

      I’m not a proponent of selling players like Utley and Lee. That said, this Mets series is a serious downer, and this team could go into the crapper in the next week. IF the Phillies were to decide to get rid of the players that actually have trade value, I think they need to do so like the big market team they are. If they are going young by getting rid of expensive players, they can afford to eat a bunch of salary for better prospects.

      Would, say, Texas be willing to talk about Profar-for-Lee if the Phillies are paying half of Lee’s salary? It would certainly get Texas’ attention, particularly since the Garza deal fell through, even if it might not be enough. Would St. Louis part with Taveras under a similar scenario? Would Boston or Detroit offer up better prospects for Papelbon if the Phillies ate half of his salary? I have no idea if such prospects would be available under those circumstances. But it would be the avenue best for the team’s long-term future if they did go in that direction.

      Like

  18. Your so right, I am frustrated, to go from where we were in 2008 and 09 to this is really getting to me.and with amaro in charge, I have no faith in this team.

    Like

    1. While I strongly, many would say obsessively, believe that some of the current woes could have been avoided by more attention to the farm and less devotion to gild-the-lily FA, as in the Pence trade, much of what we are seeing is the normal ebb and flow of most good teams, as they assemble a talented core of star and near star players and then that core ages. Rebuilding on the fly can be done, but it is one of the hardest things for a GM to achieve, even a GM with the salary budget that RAJ has at his disposal. For the most part, mini-dynasties rise and fall and are replaced by mini-dynasties in other cities.

      Like

    2. roccom…perhaps Ruben will surprise you and sign the Cuban pitcher-Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. And he can pitch this year after a few minor league starts according to reports.
      Just like that…the whole thing changes around a bit.

      Like

  19. That cuban is signing with dodgers for 50 million. you would think this team could get a good gm. with the money they spend at the big league level. They had the wades, and realize that you need a gm who knows how to build a team, and has won a championship. its easier that way, like a gillick. I see no way in hell amaro, turns this team around. He is like a kid, in a mans world,

    Like

    1. MLBTR:
      ‘•Earlier today, we learned the Dodgers are prepared to offer Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez something in the neighborhood of $50MM over five years. Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com, however, tweets sources have told him the Dodgers’ interest in the Cuban right-hander is not as fervent as has been portrayed.’

      Like

    2. Not so fast …

      Dodgers Unlikely To Pursue Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez
      By Steve Adams [July 23, 2013 at 8:01am CST]
      Despite a number of reports to the contrary, the Dodgers are not interested in Cuban right-hander Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, reports Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. Gurnick writes that the Dodgers already have nearly $200MM committed to Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Chad Billingsley and Josh Beckett already, and the Dodgers know it will take another $200MM or so to retain Clayton Kershaw. They’d also like former first-round picks Zach Lee and Chris Reed to have a shot at the rotation in the coming years.

      Last night, reports said that Gonzalez has narrowed his options to five teams and could sign within the next few days. Recent reports have indicated that the Dodgers may be prepared to offer as much as a five-year, $50MM contract, but Gurnick refutes that thinking. Other teams with interest include the Cubs, Rangers, Red Sox, Phillies, Blue Jays, Braves, Twins, Yankees and Marlins.

      Like

  20. The cubs imo are idiots. They blinked first and took a blind guy, a batting practice pitcher and.a a ball 22 year old for garza. There gm had no ballls he should have waited until the trade deadline. i know some think thats all you get for rentals. but some rentals are difference makers, and right now garza is, and is worth more. I wouldnt trade any player on the phillies except paps, because his contracts is nuts. i would take anything for him to rid the team of that bad contract,Ruiz can stay or go it doesnt matter, he wont be resigned, and to take the junk teams are offering, i rather just let the season play out. I would let utley walk, because it will be years before this ownership. fires the idiot gm. amaro and utley would be wasteing his time in philly. hope he goes to a winning team.

    Like

    1. roccom…maybe I can cheer you up a bit. Here is a small list of Latin American free agents that the Phillies just missed on signing. They just lost out to some other ‘small-market teams!’
      Roberto Alomar-San Diego…Sandy Alomar-San Diego…Luis Aparicio-ChcWhite Sox…Bobby Abreu-Houston-he did come our way though,
      Rod Carew-Minn…Rob Cano-NYY…Orlando Cepeda-NYGiants…Roberto Clemente-Pitt…Luis Castillo-Florida
      Bartolo Colon-Clev…Miguel Cabrera-Florida…Carlos Delgado-Toronto…Vlad Guerrero-Montreal…Felix Hernandez-Seattle
      Christian Guzman-NYY…Pedro Martinez-LAD…Minnie Minoso-Clev…Raul Mondesi-LAD…Juan Marichal-NYGiants
      Jose Mesa-Toronto…David Ortiz-Seattle…Tony Perez-Cinn…Mariano Rivera-NYY…Hanley Ramirez-Boston
      Jose Reyes-NY Mets…Ivan Rodiguez-Texas…Sammy Sosa-Texas…Johan Santana-Houston…Manny Sanguillen-Pitt
      Luis Tiant-Clev…Miguel Tejada-Oakland…Julio Teheran-Atlanta…Fernando Valenzuela-LAD…Jose Valverde-Arizona
      Omar Vizguel-Seattle…Bernie Williams- NYY
      In fairness….we did sign Juan Samuel, Julio Franco and Chooch, so alls not lost.
      And we have Maikel Franco, Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis and Carlos Tocci coming up.

      Like

Comments are closed.