A look at the catchers throughout the organization. Next up: the OF from the high levels of the organization.
Lehigh Valley
Cameron Rupp, 24, Phils 3rd round pick in 2010; .236/.305/.418 in 225 AB’s between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 10HR 33RBI; 8%bb/24%K rates; .220 since June 1. Has caught 55 games with 4 errors (.991); 3 passed balls; Has thrown out 16/52 would be base stealers (31%); Rupp has been asked to really step up this year for a variety of reasons and he has been predominately up to the task. I like Rupp and while he does not project as a major league starter, he could be a very effective back up with another 250-300 minor league AB’s.
Steven Lerud, 28, Re-signed as free agent in 2013; .242/.405/.358 in 120 AB’s; 3HR 17RBI; .214 vs. LH, .250 vs. RH, .243 with RISP; 20%bb/24% k rates; 41 games caught with 6 errors (.981); 1 passed ball; Has thrown out 13/39 would be base stealers (33%); Lerud has played well for Lehigh Valley. Even with a marginal batting average, the huge walk rate has led to an excellent OBP. Above average defensively, pitchers like throwing to him. Seemed over matched offensively in the majors but a capable short term fix if necessary.
Reading
Tommy Joseph, 22, Acquired from San Francisco in 2012; .179/.229/.295 in 123 AB’s between Clearwater, Reading and LV; 3HR 16RBI; 5%bb/23% k rates. Has caught 33 games with 1 error (.996); 11 passed balls; Has thrown out 12/47 would be base stealers (26%); At this stage it has been a lost season for Joseph who was not playing well for Lehigh Valley and then was sidelined for an extended period with a concussion.
Sebastian Valle, Will be 23 next week, Signed as a free agent in 2006; .212/241/.358 in 212 AB’s; 7HR 20RBI; 1SB; .222 vs. LH, .210 vs. RH, .167 with RISP; 4%bb/25% k rates; .222 since June 1. Has caught 51 games with 1 error (.997); 8 passed balls; Has thrown out 18/65 would be base stealers (28%). Just a miserable season for Valle who prospect status is at an all time low. Wouldnt be at all surprised to see him lose his 40 man roster spot in the off season. That said, his defense has been acceptable.
John Suomi, 32, Re-signed as free agent in 2013; Hitting .266 in 64 AB’s between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 2 HR 10RBI. Has caught 13 games with one error; (.989); 6 passed balls; Has thrown out 3/14 would be base stealers (21%); A good guy to have around, he is willing to do what needs to be done at the higher levels of the organization.
Clearwater
Logan Moore, 22, Phils 9th round pick in 2011 draft.177/.254/.254 in 209 AB’s; 2HR 19RBI; 1SB; .197 vs. LH, .169 vs. RH, .234 with RISP; .184 since June 1; 9%bb/21% k rates. Has caught 60 games with 3 errors (.994); 7 passed balls; Has thrown out 30/79 would be base stealers (38%). EVen with very good defense, Moore is going to at least have to show minimal capability with the bat to stick around long term.
Bob Stumpo, 26, Phils 33rd round pick in 2010; Hitting .180 in 50 AB’s; 1HR 6 RBI. Has caught 17 games with 2 errors (.985); 3 passed balls; Has thrown out 12/28 would be base stealers (43%).
Lakewood
Chace Numata, 20, Phils 14th round pick in 2010; .228/.300/.311 in 219 AB’s; 2HR 29RBI; .298 vs. LH, .204 vs. RH, .191 with RISP; Hitting .150 since June 1; 8%bb/15% k rates. 64 games caught with 12 errors (.978); 18 passed balls; Has thrown out 28/102 would be base stealers (27%). Numata started the year on a tear but has been borderline non existant for the past two months. 18 passed balls is not an acceptable figure for 64 games.
Justin Dalles, 24, Signed as a free agent in 2013; Hitting .304 with 4 HR and 20RBI in 69 AB’s between Reading and Lakewood; 7%bb/12% k rates. Has caught 17 games with 3 errors (.977); 1 passed ball; Has thrown out 5/24 would be base stealers (19%); Dalles has played very well when given playing time. Pretty clear the Phils see him as an organizational guy.
Josh Ludy, 23, Phils 8th round draft pick in 2012; Hitting .284 in 81 AB’s between Clearwater and Reading; 1HR 4RBI; 9%bb/29% k rates; Has caught 11 games with 2 errors, o passed balls; Has thrown out 1/20 would be base stealers (5%); Ludy has seen very limited time, predominately because of his defense.
Williamsport
Andrew Knapp, 21, Phils 2nd round pick in 2013; Hitting .302 in 63 AB’s; 0HR 8RBI; 4SB; 10%bb/20% k rates; Has caught 2 games with one error, 2 passed balls; Has thrown out 0/4 would be base stealers; Has been inhibited by an injured elbow that has relegated Knapp to DH only duty. Clearly advanced with the stick.
Gabriel Lino, 20, Acquired from Baltimore in 2012; Hitting .301 in 83 AB’s; 2HR 17RBI; 2SB; 9%bb/24% k rates; Has caught 19 games with one error (.994); 4 passed balls; Has thrown out 9/20 would be base stealers (45%); Has also played 3 games at 1B with 2 errors. Lino has been very, very good in the early going for Williamsport.
Corey Bass, 22; Phils 20th round pick in 2013; Hitting .250 in 20 AB’s; 0HR 2 RBI; Has caught 7 games with 3 errors and 5 passed balls; Has thrown out 2/12 would be base stealers (17%). Defense has been very problematic early on.
GCL
Chad Carman, 24, Phils 24th round draft pick in 2012 draft; Hitting .333 in 39 AB’s between Lakewood and GCL Phils. Just back after missing an extended period with a hand injury. Has caught 14 games with 1 error (.989); 2 passed balls. Has thrown out 5 of 19 would be base stealers (26%).
Deivi Gruillon, 17, Signed as a free agent in 2012; Hitting .189 in 37AB’s; 0HR 5RBI. 11 games at catcher with 3 errors and 2 passed balls. Has thrown out 2 of 12 would be base stealers (17%)
Jose Mayorga, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2010; Hitting .231 in 13AB’s. 4 games caught without an error or a passed ball. Has thrown out 2/2 would be base stealers. Has also played two games at 1B without an error.
Jake Sweaney, 18, Phils 4th round draft pick in 2013 draft; Hitting .250 in 24 AB’s. 9 games caught with 1 error and 1 passed ball. Has thrown out 2/10 would be base stealers (20%).
Man, we once thought Ruiz could walk after this year and we’d have up to 3 options. None of then seem ready with the bat for next year to start.
I do like Knapp and Lino, but it may take awhile for them. I still can’t believe what we got back for Thome. That was a great trade from Ruben and really underrated.
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Lino is a guy who, as I recall, I sort of defended last season, yet has been off the radar for me. But, with the usual SSS caution, that’s a pretty impressive line.
How do you rank these guys as prospects? I’m going to throw Rupp out of the equation here because, given his likely ceiling as a back up, but likelihood of reaching that ceiling, it’s kind of an apples to oranges comparison. Him aside, Joseph probably still first, but Lino and Knapp (in that order) close behind. Valle has fallen to 4th at best, really 5th since Rupp is certainly ahead of him by any criteria. Heck, maybe Valle is now the 6th best catching prospect in the organization, arguably behind Numata.
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That might sell Joseph a little short – after all, he was 4 levels more advanced than the other 2 guys, yet just a year older than Knapp and 2 years older than Lino. So there’s that. He had a good season in full season A ball at the age of 19.
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I still have Joseph first by a significant margin. Would like to see more of Knapp but would probably rank him ahead of Lino right now, and I like Lino, a little bit. Maybe Joseph, Knapp, Lino, Rupp. I’m not sure where I would place Valle. I’m not sure it matters either
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Joseph by a fair margin, but I like all three of our prospects at C a good deal (him, Knapp, and Sweaney). Not a big Lino fan, as he moved *down* a level to do anything with the stick.
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Lino should be bumped-up a level, imo.
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Not to dwell on Valle, this is certainly one of those situations where I don’t like being right, but IMO he provides a text book example of a case where the plate discipline is SO bad that it’s just guaranteed to be exploited by more advanced pitching.
Time permitting, I would like to talk a bit at some point about the difference between plate discipline and BB rates – they are often treated as identical but they are not. Valle, however, is a guy whose absurdly low BB rate did accurately reflect his very poor plate discipline.
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LarryM…you certainly did call it a few years ago on Valle’s inadequacies. If Ruben had only listened to you back then, we still may have had Santana and plugged Valle in the Pence trade.
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Interesting that you bring up Santana. His walk rate is good, but he strikes out more than one-third of the time. However, he is in AA and does hit HRs.
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How do you differentiate poor plate discipline from low BB rates? That is, poor plate discipline will always equal low BB, but low BB rate will not always equate to poor plate discipline. I assume?
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Okay, the very brief version, then I have to get back to work.
I think we need to start by not looking at this as a pure “good” and “bad” plate discipline. At the extremes, very good plate discipline is usually going to result in at least decent BB rates, and very poor plate discipline is usually going to result in poor BB rates. But in the middle … let’s look at Ben Revere and Ryan Howard. Howard, on a career basis, has slightly below average plate discipline, yet an above average BB rate. Revere the opposite. There are actually two variables in play here. The first is obvious – power. The second somewhat less so – contact rate. Since Revere has an extremely good contact rate, he’s going to put the ball in play more often, running fewer long counts and consequently fewer BBs, Assuming equal plate discipline, a power hitter with a poor contact rate is going to walk a lot more than a light hitting contact hitter.
That’s a start; no time to get more deeply into it at the moment.
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I’m measuring plate discipline by swing%, though that’s an imperfect measure. As I said, there’s more to this, but I don’t have the time at the moment to get in depth.
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pitches per AB can probably measure into the equation somewhere
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(re: Valle) “a text book example of a case where the plate discipline is SO bad that it’s just guaranteed to be exploited by more advanced pitching.”
Absolutely. You see these players with 300 or so pro ABs, 40% k-rates and 3% walk rates – that’s a very high risk player there. Tyler Green was a good example as well. I still think it was too early in his career for retirement but it was clear early on that he was an over-matched ballplayer
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The “dream” was that Joseph would progress after the trade to be ready to become THE catcher beginning in ’14. now it is difficult to visualize the Phils not re-signing Ruiz…unless they would rely on a Kratz-Rupp duo for ’14. Unless Joseph was affected in his play by the trade itself, it seems the Phils may have made a “giant” error in placing such a high value on him…
Now it seems that Lino was a good value via his recent good showings. Props to RAJ for that one. Valle was always a problem with strike recognition and contact short. It seems there would be a better use for a spot on the 40 than him post ’13.
Knapp could be a steal. SSS. An offensive catcher whose catching skills lag but can be polished by 2-3 more seasons of pro ball. A shame about his sore arm, now. Sweaney also looks promising. Give him at least 4 years.
Looks like a strong group should they realize their seeming potential. In fact, perhaps the best position in our minor lg system. Wish they were closer.
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Isn’t sweeney still considered a catcher? If so….joseph-knapp-lino-sweaney-rupp-grullon-valle.
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I only asked because I think there was talk of him moving off catcher.
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Damn, remember when we thought our catching was a system strength? Not at the moment…although this draft may pan out in 5 years…
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The catching looks thin for next couple years unfortunately. Kratz looks like the best option in my eyes. However during the break id like to say how much i like this site . Thanks all of you from all of me
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I think they play it like they did this season when Ruiz started on the d.l.. Start Kratz and sign a catcher off the scrap heap. See what Joseph does for the rest of the season and winter leagues and make a decision based on his production, or lack there of. On a side night, I like Tommy’s attitude, that’s for sure. I think he has the most potential considering his defense is better than that of Kratz.
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Valle still calls a good game. He’ll hang around the minors forever. Will be a good third option in his peak years bc of power and catching. A long way from what we hoped for, but he might get a cup.
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