Mid-Season Mailbag

Other Stuff

Here are the answers to your questions.  I really enjoyed answering and researching them. Feel free to ask any more questions or ask for clarification and I will try my best to answer them in the comments.

Ajay says:

Question: If you’re the Phillies GM (position should be opening soon), whom do you trade off the major league roster at the deadline, and which prospect replaces them? Is that prospect the long-term answer at the position?

I would trade Michael Young and Papelbone without question.  I think Asche could step in right now and with his defense at least equal Young’s production, I don’t think he is the long term answer but certainly a competent major leaguer.  As for Papelbon I would have traded him the moment the contract was signed because I don’t think a closer should get paid that much.  I personally would ride the hot hand of all the hard throwing guys until someone broke away from the pack.

Another question: the year is 2016 – where is Anthony Hewitt and where is Larry Green Jr.?

The easy bet is that both will be out of baseball, I think it is more likely that Greene will be the one gone.  However, I think both will be in AAA, Greene for the Phillies and Hewitt for another team.  Hewitt by all accounts is a good guy and hard worker, and he has the skill set to hit mistakes in AAA for 15-20 HRs a year for a PCL team.  He might get a couple cups of coffee if he puts together good months.  Greene will be trying to prove his bat can play on  a major league bench.

Ml71 says:

I have read this site since 2008, but live on the west coast, so I rarely post. So, Domonic Brown, after some false starts, looks like the real deal and worthy of #1 prospect ranking he had for several years. Simply looking at CLW and below, is their anyone with DB’s potential?
BTW great site and thanks for all your efforts!

Cord Sandberg is the guy, especially if he can play CF.  He does not have Brown’s arm but he could offer a good combination of hit, power, and speed that could vault him up rankings.  I think there are other intriguing guys but the overall package just isn’t there.  The next guys are probably Altherr, Cozens, and Quinn (if he can stick at short).

Garett says:

Where would you rank Franco and Biddle on the top MLB prospect list at this point in the season? Thanks.

I would rank both in the 40s-50s.  There is a lot of risk with Franco with high upside and Biddle has some upside but a really high floor.  I am not sure how many questions either of them can answer between now and the end of the season that is going to really vault them much higher on lists.

allentown1 says:

Larry Greene is doing better the past week or so. Current thoughts on his future and where he currently ranks in our top 30.

Greene needs to make some serious changes to his swing and approach before I can really take him seriously as a good prospect.  There are certainly tools there, but I think this is looking more like a lost season than anything and his future is going to hinge on how he approaches this off-season.  If he makes the list it is going to be in that 25-30 range, but the system has gotten deeper and it is tough to rank someone without meaningful production in two seasons.

I know you slot new draftees in your top 30 at the end of the season, based largely upon the scouting reports at the time of draft, and much lesser extent how they performed in short season. A major national writer said that 5-6 of our draftees could be in his end of season top 10 for Phillies. That seems excessive. Which draftees do you slot in the top 15 at this point, and if you want to be that daring, at what slots do you put them?

I think Crawford, Knapp, and Sandberg are locks for my Top 15 with Hernandez and Sweaney having outside shots depending on the reports out of the GCL and FIL.  I think Crawford is firmly entrenched in that #3 prospect spot, I have trouble slotting Knapp ahead of Joseph who is 5 months older but 3 levels higher with a similar pedigree (which slots around 7 or 8), and I think Sandberg is contention for the last Top 10 spot depending on the reports.  This could all change significantly based on what happens with Asche and Martin, Morgan, Watson, and Quinn’s injury recovery, and Cozens’ development in WPT.

What is the deal with Joseph and his concussion/injury? Are the concussions enough of an issue to seriously downgrade him on our top 30 list? Where would you place him today?

Not having spoken to a doctor I can’t give any long term diagnosis on his concussions, and I will not be downgrading him because of it until I hear a doctor express a lot of concern.  Concussions are a serious issue though and as someone who has had a couple they are something worth keeping an eye on, but I am not going to worry unless he shows continued negative symptoms.  I do knock him a little for missed development time that likely sets his ETA back a year.  I ranked him #6 almost a month ago (https://phuturephillies.com/2013/06/18/midseason-top-20/) and it would be hard to jump anyone on that list passed him.  So with draft signees and promotion he is probably 6 or 7 on my list.  I know the defense and hit tool will have their holes but he still projects as a very solid regular at catcher which is really valuable, also everything I have heard says his makeup is off the charts which is what I want behind the plate.

Gillies, Collier, Valle, Colvin, Walding, Hudson, Simon — done as top 30 guys?

I never liked Simon as I thought it was a middle reliever all the way, Valle and Hudson just are missing too much to make lists.  If the swing change is for real on Gillies he is back in the 20s on the list.  Collier, Walding, and Colvin don’t make the list right now but all have the skills and youth to but together enough to sneak back on in a future year.

How much should we downgrade Morgan’s ranking and ETA in the bigs, because of the shoulder injury?

I never really thought Morgan would make a 2013 impact in the majors so this maybe sets him back half a year to early 2014.  I want to see what he looks like when he returns before knocking him down the rankings.  If he looks like the guy I ranked #2 coming into the year he climbs back up to #4 behind Biddle, Franco, and Crawford.

Guy who improved the most this season as a prospect?

It is hard to say someone other than Franco, and his rise has been mostly putting the scouting reports from the second half of last year into play.  The biggest jump in the rankings has to be Kelly Dugan who should a .050 rise in ISO while keeping his BB rate and k rates identical.  The BABIPs are high and the k rate could certainly drop some, but he firmly has entered the ceiling of major league regular.

I assume you won’t be publishing your answers until after the draft signing deadline has passed. What letter grade would you give to our signed haul from this draft compared to 1) the rest of MLB, 2) what could reasonably be expected given our position in the draft and our bonus allocation? How does this draft compare to 2008, 2011, and 2012 (in terms of overall talent yield, not draft strategy/focus).

Given their positioning it seems like a B draft, losing Monda hurts some and not signing Wetzler could be bad, but getting Wetzler could certainly move them to B+.  The only mistake they made was taking Monda, where they could have had an upside guy or shifted money for an overslot HS pick later.  But they walked away with the best SS, the best college catcher, my #4 HS catcher, two upside 3B, and a guy in Sandberg with Top 15 talent but really raw skills in the 3rd round.

Right now I would say it is the best draft since 2008 (which has a ton of depth that has come out).  The draft will really hinge on the first 5 picks and how they develop.

As of the end of the draft signing period, how would you rank the overall Phillies farm compared to the other 29 organizations? What about in terms of help over the next two years, compared to our NL East rivals?

As the team stands right now (a graduation of Asche, Morgan, or Martin could change this) I think they are likely in the 14-18 range buoyed up by Biddle and Franco.  However the risk inherent in many of their upside prospects keeps the system down.

In terms of impact guys on the way Atlanta and Washington have run out of waves of prospects.  Atlanta has some pitchers who will be there within 2-3 years and the Nationals have Giolito but he is just starting to throw again.  The Marlins have some serious talent on the way with Heaney, Marisnick, and Yelich to go along with Fernandez, Stanton, and Ozuno.  Even with Wheeler up now the Mets still have D’Arnaud and Syndergaard to form a formidable pitching core.  Given that I would say the Phillies are firmly #3 in that group.

JA says:

Here’s my question:

Is it a concern when Keith Law and Jason Parks who have both seen Franco live come away not impressed even after what he’s doing in AA?

Slightly but not really concerned.  There is not anything really new to the Law and Parks reports.  We knew that Franco has a long swing and his arm bars during it with some debate of whether it truly locks and prevents him from getting to the inside pitch.  Right now Franco’s great hand-eye coordination and bat speed are compensating for any swing issues.  There is still a lot to be done with his prospect status, I just hope he isn’t developing bad habits right now.

Wes Chamberlain – ugg says:

Between 2005 and 2007, the Cardinals selected 30 players who have played at the big league level (If I count right, the Phillies selected 20 such players). If you were to look at the 2009 – 2011 draft classes, how many players do you think – when all is said and told – will have been drafted by the Phillies that will appear in an MLB game?

My projected locks:

2009: Dugan, Colvin (reliever), Singleton, Altherr, Ruf (already there), probably another 1 out of Inch, Zeid, or Hernandez as a reliver

2010: Biddle, Rupp, 2 of Garner, Buchannan, Musser, Walter, Numata, and Pointer

2011: Morgan, Asche, Giles, Wright (reliever), 2 of Greene, Quinn, Walding, Shull, JDT, Rios, Murray

That gives a grand total of 16 guys.  The year missing is 2008 where I see 11 guys who have either made it or should make it at some point.

For those that listen to Steve Czaban – “this may be a dumb question, but”..

When various publications rank the farm systems, do they put more emphasis on the “quality” or “quantity”. For example – say the Angels of a few years ago had Trout – say that out of the rest of their farm system they had 2 or 3 other guys who were fringe prospects(i.e one guy who is a top 5 prospect, and a handful of others that are outside the top 100).. How would they generally be ranked compared to a team with a higher quantity of good prospects, but no ‘elite’ prospects. Would they generally be ranked higher than a team that had 4 top 100 prospects (say one in the top 30, and 3 between 50 and 100)?

Along the same lines:
would you rather have the #10 overall prospect, or 3 # 50 prospects?

I don’t believe the saying that there are no dumb questions, but that is irrelevant because this is a very good question.  For the first part the rankings have to do with a bit of both.  I am going to use WAR as a framing device here purely because it gives us a number to compare and work with.  Starting with the Trout debate, Trout was worth ~10WAR last year, the average major league regular is worth ~2 WAR, the average All-Star is more in the 4-5 WAR level.  That is a big difference made up by one player, so if you have a guy like that it is worth almost an entire farm system.  That being said a system like the Padres a year or two ago built on ton of guys with plus profiles is really valuable too.  If you have 10 guys who are going to give you 2+ WAR a season that can save you a lot of money and prospects (for trades) that can be spent on getting that superstar.

I am not sure I would draw the line at #10, but I would rather have a prospect in the first tier of guys than 3 #50 guys.  Right now based on who is in the minors that tier is Buxton, Taveres, Sano, Lindor, Bradley, and Bogarts.  Those 6 guys have superstar ceilings that can give you the value of 3 plus guys in that #50 range.

@Matt_Winkelman mailbag ? – out of all the prospects below single A not named Tocci, who do you think has the highest upside?

I think the obvious answer is JP Crawford, though I think Cord Sandberg is not far behind. The biggest thing is that Crawford, like Tocci plays a premium defensive position in the middle of the diamond.  If either of them can be a near average hitter that is a major league regular.  Crawford has some projection left to him, and if he can add some power it becomes a very exciting profile.

Anonymous says:

Evidently Stan Kasten and Ned Colletti are dead-set on acquiring local guy Chase Utley as a rental for the Dodgersr stretch drive. Would Joc Pederson be a equal barter in return?

I don’t think Peterson is enough on his own, though I think he will be a solid player in a corner OF spot going forward.  If the deal included another 2 low minors high upside-high risk guys like a Zach Bird or Jesmuel Valentin that might get it done.

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

40 thoughts on “Mid-Season Mailbag”

  1. Thanks for this, Matt.

    Continuing my role as “Official LGJ Apologist,” if he’s in AAA by 2016, I think he’s re-established himself as a top prospect. Given that he’s likely to repeat Lakewood in 2014, that means he’d have jumped three levels in two seasons; borderline NPs don’t normally do that.

    I think he’s in Allentown as a Top 100 guy in 2016, or he’s out of baseball.

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  2. Law talked about Franco a little further on his podcast and he called his lack of pitch recognition “extreme” and his adjustments within games is awful. He actually didn’t bring up the arm bar swing and was fairly complimentary quick hands and power. Probably more concerning was how down he was on his defense. He liked his arm but hates just about everything else about him defensively.

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    1. I haven’t seen Franco play, but my initial instinct is to chuckle at this. How many guys get promoted and immediately hit over .400 with power, while having “extreme” pitch recognition problems and being “awful” at makiing adjustments? I have to wonder if Law just caught him on a bad day. These comments seem entirely at odds with Franco’s statistical profile.

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      1. APPARENTLY, Franco’s problem is that his pitch recognition is terrible. BUT, he wrists and hands are so good that he gets to the pitches anyway.

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        1. Actually that is fairly true and why AA is not a great test for him. The fear is when he makes the major league jump he will still make contact but those homeruns and line drives are going to be weak ground balls and pop flies as he just can’t square the ball up on better pitchers.

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          1. Okay, these are helpful observations. If his pitch recognition is a big problem, we are probably going to see that at AAA.

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            1. It will show up more there but it might not be an issue until the majors, the worry right now is that he is picking up bad habits by relying on the bat speed and power to bail him out. Part of his success in LKW was recognizing pitches and driving them the other way when it wasn’t there to pull.

              At some point you have to assume the approach in AA will start to resemble previous levels, but until then I am concerned.

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            2. When someone says “horrible” to me that’s bottom 5% in the league. I think it’s fairly safe to say that what he really means is “Franco has slightly below average pitch recognition skills”. It is something to watch, but likely isn’t nearly as damning as he makes it out to be.

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            3. Sounds like the baseball version of Tracy McGrady. TMac never had to develop basketball “skills” because he was simply more athletic than anybody else. That worked great in the beginning, but once injuries sapped his athleticism, he was all but useless by age 30.

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          2. Eventaully, over time, all MLB pitchers would have been AA pitchers at some point in their career progression. So Franco will evetually become the terror bat in the MLB as he is now.

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    2. I’m not even sure what to make of some of these scouting observations. Catch is right, the statistics aren’t even remotely supporting his conclusion. A player with atrocious pitch recognition skills would likely preclude ANY player from excelling at A+, let alone AA. I’m really struggling here…

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      1. As we mentioned above, Franco has a really quick bat so he can catch up and adjust to a mistake in pitch recognition. He has incredible hand-eye coordination. At the minor league level it is a lot easier to make up for the mistake because pitchers lack the combination of command and stuff.

        I think something else is being missed in all of this. Coming into this year the report was that Franco was aggressive at the plate, but not to a detrimental level. The big red flags on approach happened about the same time he reached AA where he has only failed to put the ball in play on 4 of his 76 plate appearances.

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        1. The fact that he’s making contact at such extreme rates to me is a positive as opposed to a negative. As is the fact that his hands and hand-eye coordination are exceptional. Pitch recognition is something that takes a long time to develop, and honestly, isn’t really a “tool” per-say as it is something learned by repetition.

          The fact that Franco has poor pitch recog. skills at this point to me doesn’t scream as loudly as a detriment as it does as an illustration of him being far more advanced physically then the rest of the eastern league and a very young age.

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            1. I agree with that last statement completely. 🙂 Excellent reference btw!

              I think what rubs me wrong with some of these scouting reports on his long swing / pitch recognition is that the writers make it seem like he’s destined for failure solely because of it as opposed to a challenge for a very bright futured prospect to work on.

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            2. The reality is that they are more times than not, they are going to be right. Professional baseball is really hard and while you pull for a kid succeed they might fail even if they put all of their time and effort into it.

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            3. The thing with all this is that I thought this all was worked on with Franco at the beginning of last year, which is what led to his slow start. The videos I have seen posted on here still have him being able to go the other way and handle the breaking ball. If the pitch recognition is an issue it is definitely something the Phillies organisation should nip in the bud. It is something that shouldn’t be too difficult to overcome but that might be hard to do while Franco is having so much success.

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            7. Prime example of lack of pitch recognition….Ryan Howard. Result of lack of pitch recognition…high K rate.

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            8. I wonder if Law said that about Pence the master of bad contact , And another thing I seem to remember a lot of people saying AA would be the big test for Franco and now that he is raking there, all of sudden its AAA where it seems a bunch of never have beens are playing. How could his pitch recognition be so bad and yet he never strikes out. So what it seems like im hearing is nobody in AA can challenge him because they are all undeveloped washouts who have no deception and the only pitch they can through for a strike is an 88mph laser straight two seamers directly over the heart of the plate. Ive never been to a game at Reading or Clearwater but I have watched quite a few youtube videos on Franco , Im not saying his the next Michael Jack Schmidt but, for Law to say he is a lazy fielder and the ultimate guesser at the plate is just flat out bull and you mister Law you just made the list.

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            1. I don’t know about that. Seems to me pitch recognition/discipline doesn’t develop like most other baseball skills do.

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  4. I was a little (ok a lot) surprised that you continue to have Joseph as high as you do. To me, this isn’t only a lost year, it’s also a year which, during about 120 at-bats, he achieved an increase in K%, a decrease in BB%, and a decrease in ISO. And that is all over what I consider was a step back last year from the year before. I had him at 8 or so going into this season and I do see a reason to move him back to 12-15.

    Can you give me a little more light on why you foresee him being a slightly above average regular?

    I see him as a below average regular.

    Average Power (won’t make enough contact to get a “plus rating”)
    Below Average Average
    Below Average Walk Rate
    Below Average Speed on the basepaths
    Below Average Plate Defense (passed ball rate)
    Above Average – Arm

    To me, that’s not an above average catcher. I get that he’s young, but he hasn’t really excelled since he came to the Phillies.

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    1. I see 60 Power, 40 Hit, 30 Speed, 45 Defense (it is really blocking that is the problem, he has shown to be a good reciever), and a 65 arm. The sample sizes are minuscule on him this year given the intermittent playing time. He was picked in the same round of the same draft as Kelly Dugan and has shown similar results (when you normalize BABIP) while being younger and playing a premium position. Additionally he has 80 grade makeup, and is going to be a guy who can control a game with his presence and relationship with pitchers.

      I think his weaknesses have been overblown because it is not a normal skill set (he is essentially the anti-Chooch tools wise). When you take a step back and look at the player as a whole, it is not an all-star package, but certainly it is a skill set that works on the major league level. Someone like Rupp gets a ton of love and his tools are below Joseph across the board, and Rupp profiles as a major leaguer.

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      1. I agree the tools are there for Joseph to be successful. And by my observations of him in ST with the big club, the assesment that hit bat can play as a C in the majors is true, but he still has a lot of work to do with his defense blocking and receiving the ball. From what i saw at ST he made Kratz look good receiving the ball. But that is something he can work on and that is what sucks about the injury because he just needs reps to get better and his arrival time is now pushed back. As a prospect the injuries have successfully split his current numbers in 2 and he has not had a chance to get going offensively.

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  5. +1, on your answer to ‘who should be traded’. Michael Young, for whatever you can get. Papelbon, for the 1st team that is willing to take that ridiculous contract.

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  6. There’s a “hot hand” in the bullpen that is going to break away from the pack? You have to get a young closer if you move Paps. since this is a mailbag, do you all have a page with info on the international prospects Phillies signed?

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  7. Joc Pederson would be our number 1 prospect. I’d be thrilled for an Utley for Pederson swap.

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  8. I do not see Papelbon’s contract as ridiculous since he is pitching great. WAR is never going to rank relievers very high but wasting great starts from the expensive starting pitching is somewhat counter productive. He is definitely overpaid but I could see $10M per for his consistent ‘closerness’ being okay to pay for a team with a big budget.

    However, I am all for ‘pitching the hot hand’ but the young Phillies relievers have been terrible for almost two years now. Maybe other teams (like Cardinals) can just create closers every year from some flamethrower guy, but not the Phillies.
    Bastardo, Aumont, Diekman have stuff but are super wild and very unreliable. DeFratus was the one guy I expected to be consistent and he has been bad.
    Savery, Stutes, Rosenberg are not good enough.

    I am in favor of trading Papelbon for a quality return since he is overpaid, but with Adams out the Phillies really have nobody to go to so it would indicate a major sell which I just do not think they will be willing to do. Instead of bringing up Garcia, I would have liked to see the Phillies obtain some once good vet and give him a ‘tryout’ for the next 3 weeks. Rauch (who’s a FA now) or Axford or Motte. If by some miracle they were decent a Papelbon trade would have less impact. Then they could bring up Garcia.

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    1. Papelbon is on the down hill. He has lost velocity and doesn’t have as high a percentage, even counting saves like the recent one where he gave up two runs in the ninth to earn the save. A great start can be lost in the 8th inning just as easily as in the ninth. Games are lost in the early innings as well. Saves seem more significant than they are, because it is more frustrating to lose a game at the end than earlier in the game, but a loss is a loss. Even Jose Mesa racked up a lot of saves in his first two seasons in Philly. It really doesn’t take an outstanding pitcher to be a closer. Even with an ERA of 3.00 you save at least 2/3 of your one-run save opportunities, then there are the easier 2 and 3 run saves. A closer also usually doesn’t have to deal with inherited runners.

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      1. True.
        Games are lost throughout all the innings but at least the batters have a chance earlier.
        Agree that ‘leveage’ should determine when the bullpen’s best pitcher should pitch. However, then that guy would be warming up for 3 innings most nights.

        That is also why I liked Madson so much. He was a near perfect reliever: groundball tendencies, mega strikeout pitch (changeup) that could be thrown in the zone, rarely walked guys, and could pitch multiple innings. That is true ‘fireman’. Those guys are just not used correctly most times but I did like Adams as a similar type of pitcher. But of course age and injury were concerns and now he is on the DL.

        I am always intrigued by bullpen management, though.
        I am always uncertain how to deterimine who the ‘hot hand’ is in a bullpen by committee. You stay the closer until you give up a run then back to 6th inning? I suppose the best strategy is then bullpen by matchup which may mean you are going through 5 relievers every game. I suppose it could work expecially if there are reinforcements available from the minors rotating through every few days.

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        1. They will need to get a closer if they trade Paps preferably a young one. They simply aren’t going with one of the current young players or the “hot hand” since we’re lucky if one of our young relievers is “hot” for an inning.

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  9. Kendall Rogers of Perfect Game tweeted that Wetzler is leaning towards OSU. Oh well, i’ll still take the B grade for the draft

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  10. we need to get rendon(i think his name is) to close as well as castellanos for paps. That almost certainly won’t happen unless we add something else of value as I don’t even know if paps gets you castellanos straight up. Anybody know the tigers needs?

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  11. I’d trade Young. He has value, but Frandsen is the real deal. Phillies are clearly buyers at this point though

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