Box Score Recap – 7/11/2013

Box Score Recap

Three Lakewood starters combined for a no-hitter tonight. Jeb Stefan did the heavy lifting – 6 innings, 4BB and 5K. Ramon Oviedo struck out 4 in two innings, and then apparently hurt himself, per @hudsonbelinsky, and Chris Burgess closed it out.

Stefan’s an interesting guy – he’s been in the pen a lot since being drafted last year as a 4th year junior. This year, though, he’s been pretty good in his couple of starts, allowing 16 baserunners and striking out 18 in 21 innings as a starter. He was a BA Top 500 guy in last year’s draft. Belinsky had him sitting 88-90 tonight, with what he called a plus change and a repeatable delivery. BA said last year that he had been touching 94. Worth watching his progress in the rotation.

Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.

http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130711

7-11-2013

 

104 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 7/11/2013”

      1. I agree. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I am more than ready for an Asche/Frandsen platoon. Against LHP this season, Frandsen now has a .999 OPS and 1K (career 5%k vs. LHP). Not sure they could or would do it without trading MYoung first

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        1. Hell, I’d be fine with Fradsen by himself over Young at this point. Mike’s defense is that bad.

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          1. Having him at 1st base would be equally disastrous. would be best if we could just trade him. Or at least bench him

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  4. Jesus Chavez in the VSL is interesting. He’s a 19 year old from Mexico who will be 20 in November. It makes him old for the league but you can’t question the success. In 10 outings, over 56 innings, he’s 6 – 0. He’s given up 45 hits, and 12 Earned Runs. He has 59 Ks and 6 (count ’em 6) BBs. He’s listed as a 6’3″ 175 lefty. I’d like to know what he throws. Whatever that is, he’s successful with it.

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    1. He may have some advantage because he is a little older (as well as LHP), but he is among the 2 or 3 most interesting arms to watch there. He might not have quite as many higher level innings being from Mexico (in the same way Severino Gonzalez was from Panama). Good to see our scouts reaching out to other countries more consistently at least.

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    2. Hm, I guess we’ll find out if he’s a real prospect next year depending on where they assign him.

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      1. If he doesn’t recognize pitches he just swing at them all. Either way if he can hit .270 with 20+ HR potential and a decent glove I’ll take it…

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    2. He’s not afraid to swing away when he’s on a roll. Unlike, say, Sebastian Valle, though, Franco has had good K rates and fair BB numbers above Low-A. Valle last passable walk rate was at Lakewood in 2010, Franco had 6.9% last year at Lakewood and again this year at CLR before his promotion, 1.3% and 3.3% better than Valle at the same levels. While Valle’s K rates climbed into the mid 20s, Francos have stayed in the mid-teens, excepting a small sample at LKW in 2011, before he was pushed back to WIL.

      As Franco starts to cool off, and the league adjusts to his tendencies and weaknesses, we’ll get a much more clear view of how his approach plays at AA. And then we’ll do it all again at AAA and the bigs in the next couple years.

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      1. I think he will start to pick up both more BBs and Ks as the league adjusts to him. Hopefully in the same ratios as before. Clearly he is going to start seeing fewer strikes after his start and unless he adjusts his BABIP will level off. Lots of players start a new level being more aggressive and nervous to make a good impression. I’ll be a little concerned if the BB rate does not pick up a little in the next couple of weeks.

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    3. i am not worried about the lack of walks for 2 reasons:
      1. he is friggin killing the ball right now. if you are hot, then keep swinging.
      2. he has shown a willingness to take walks in lower levels. so i don’t think he forgot that skill.

      what amazes me is the lack of strikeouts. to hit with the power he is hitting with and to keep crushing the ball and not striking out is extremely impressive.

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      1. This is kinda like the whole Dom Brown month earlier this year. He was killing the ball and people were saying he wasn’t walking. Lo and behold when the league adjusted he went back to walking like he previously did. Granted Franco doesn’t have the history of walking that Brown does but it’s the same kind of deal.

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    1. I hope he does well, and I hope he crushes it in interleague, except against a particular team in red with a P on their caps.

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      2. You’re a good sport Brad and there’s certainly a big part of me that hopes for his success. Still, I think I’d prefer a long, mediocre career for JC rather than the perennial All-Star type

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        1. There’s certainly that thought in my mind, but I think not caring how bad Rube looks helps me not worry so much about it.

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        2. I hope he does well otherwise it makes me feel less optimistic about the Phillies farm system developing good pitchers. Carrasco and Drabek flamed out (obviously injuries involved but still). Happ and Worley flatlined. The so-called ‘reliever depth’ in our farm system has turned into just a gaggle of mediocre MLB relievers.

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          1. If anything, this makes me feel better about the Phillies system. As soon as these players leave, their careers go shooting down. The Phillies must have some secret to consistently do this…

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      1. If he can’t get a shot then, yes, I think he deserves to go somewhere that wants a guy that gets on base like that. It’s the big club’s biggest weakness and it’s the thing he has done pretty darn consistently for 6 years. His lines seem an awful lot like a John Kruk type (no power, no position), granted, I have no idea what Kruk’s minor league numbers were. Still…

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        1. Kruk had a major league ISO around .150, Susdorf has a minor league ISO around .100. That’s a big difference. Susdorf is more like Revere without the speed or prime defensive position.

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        2. I’m not sure Kruk’s a good comp. His career minor league on base % was 40 points higher than Susdorf’s and his career minor league slugging % was 60 points higher.

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          1. In which case, I hope the guy with the .372 minor league OBP in nearly 2000 minor league plate appearances and .386 OBP in 500 AAA plate appearances can get picked up by a team next year that actually values, you know, having people on base.

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          2. Yeah, Kruk was a stud in the minors. I love Susdorf. Been a huge fan since his draft. But I think he is a classic 1-tool guy. And every other tool is below average.

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            1. Well, he has two tools at the very least – hit tool and plate discipline tool. It looks like he has a little speed. I haven’t heard reports on his fielding.

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            2. 6 errors in OF over over 350 games. He has 1 this year in 42 games. He has 18 assists. I saw him a few years ago in Reading. The wind was howling, so much so that ground balls were being affected. He had an error that day but threw the guy out at second who was trying to be a little greedy.

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            5. Eh….I don’t know. You can have an 80 hit tool AND have awful plate discipline. Look at Luis Castillo. Or even Vlad. Those guys swung all the time at things they shouldn’t. But, their hit tool was so good they managed to get a hit.

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            6. I would argue actually they had good plate discipline. Plate discipline does not equal walk rate. Plate discipline is knowing what pitches, in what locations you can make solid contact with. Vlad’s swing and ability made it possible for him to make good contact with a pitch out of the zone. He knew exactly which pitches he could crush and which ones he couldn’t (until the physical skills declined)

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            7. Whatever. Swinging at a ball that LITERALLY HIT THE DIRT and turning that into a hit isn’t good plate disciple. It’s dumb freaking luck. Just because someone gets a hit, doesn’t mean they should have swung at the pitch.

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            8. If you know you can hit that pitch out and your swing lets you do it, that is not luck. Go look at Brown’s swings. He will swing at ball in off the plate because he knows he can pull them. Those would tie up most hitters and they shouldn’t swing, but he knows that he can pull them out of the park

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            9. Sure. And sometimes(OFTEN, probably at a higher clip than normal) you’ll just pound the ball into the ground for an out. Or pop up. Or some other NON-OPTIMAL result. Just because, sometimes, your POOR plate discipline results in a hit doesn’t mean it’s GOOD plate discipline.

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            10. I’ve always thought of Vlad as sort of an outlier. I’m not sure how many players in baseball history could consistently make good contact on pitches not near the middle of the plate. Therefore, I don’t think bringing him up serves much of a point because he’s such an exception.

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            12. Uh, not so fast. Most modern statistical folks evaluate plate discipline as a separate tool (Bill James does) and I think that’s the right way to go – it’s really a very separate skill and has independent and significant value. Exhibit A – Ben Revere. 70 hit tool, 35 plate discipline, at most. Give him a 55 plate disipline and you are looking at a potential all-star. I like Ben, but he’s not an all-star right now. Could be in a few years if he takes some walks, but not now.

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            13. Actually, plate discipline isn’t really Revere’s problem. Larry has touched on this a few times before, but he swings at pitches outside the zone (and inside the zone) less often than average. Pitchers throw Revere more strikes than the average hitter because he has no power. They’re not afraid of getting burned for extra bases (or homers) so they give him less chances to walk.

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            14. Okay, that’s very interesting and makes sense. You may very well be right. If that’s so I need to find a better example.

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  10. Franco under .400 avg and a big goose egg last night. Time to panic as the prophet named Keith law was right.

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    1. I had it in my write-up yesterday. Too bad it took allowing a run to get there. Also he’s a college senior taking down a bunch of teenagers, (generally, maybe his 6ks were other college guys), so I take his GCL results with a grain of salt, (or sand, if you like. It is the Gulf Coast).

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            1. Allentown ETA? Hoping he can get there after a few more rehab starts in Clearwater (2 GCL, one with the Threshers?) to build arm strength . . .

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  14. Saw Reading last night. I was hoping to see some good performances from Franco, Joseph and Biddle. Went away disappointed. Biddle has a special curve ball. However, fast ball sat 90-92 and got hit. He lasted 4 innings. Joseph needs work behind the plate, not too adept at blocking or picking up balls out of the dirt. An opposing player hit a double and he never moved from the squat position, just stayed there for the next batter. Franco, probably just one of those nights, he does handle himself nicely in the field.

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      1. You are right, he did have a good night at the plate. His double in the gap was hit real hard. Might add, it appears Dugan is having a tough time adjusting and Collier appears lost.

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      1. You do realize that Law and the other national prospect writers talk to dozens of scouts who see these guys play every day? Do you really think they’re basing opinions off of seeing them in person for one game?

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      2. I’m not sure if you meant it this way, but your comment can be read as discouraging to the nice guy who went to the game and took the time to write up his observations. Discount them based on the fact that it was one game if you want, but I’d rather have more of these one-game amateur scouting reports, not less. For instance, I looked at the box score and saw Biddle’s line and wondered what caused the poor outing. I can see a fastball in the 90s having something to do with that. I’m not saying we should be concerned about one bad outing, but it’s worth remembering that this problem (velocity just deserting him from time to time) is something that has surfaced with him on multiple occasions.

        I’m not saying to freak out, I’m just saying that it’s useful information to have. Thanks Jim!

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        2. For a left with an elite breaking pitching, throwing in the low 90s is perfectly fine if he shows good command. I think the issues are less velocity declines than they are problems with mechanics and command.

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  15. JPujols goes deep for the GCP. Looks like an opposite field shot. He also has a BB in two plate appearances.

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      1. You need to try more of a sarcastic twist. Then perhaps some folks might get a snicker out of it. Otherwise it just comes off as lowbrow

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  16. Hasn’t been posted yet. Phillies got their 11th round pick to sign and now have to pay tax. It’s a great sign…maybe they are trying to get out of their more conservative ways.

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    1. Nice reports and agree for the most part, but disagree on Biddle’s curve. It’s a 70 pitch with 80 upside – yes 80.

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    2. Interesting that he has the changeup as Biddle’s best present pitch. Even if he’s in the minority with that opinion, it’s at least evidence that his changeup is a good one and therefore it’s good news.

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  18. Biddle may be working on his change-up or something. He has had some trouble of late with his outings not too impressive. Maybe nothing to worry hard about, but it IS concerning. Just hope he brings it all together in the last half of this season.

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      1. The Baseball Hall of Fame should reserve a exhibit space for him now! Remember Brett Myers threw a one hitter in his first start.

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    3. It was a good performance from him but it’s not uncommon for pitchers that are unfamiliar to the league, even those not rated highly, do well. Considering everything we’ve seen from Phillies pitchers it’s tough to judge the quality of the pitcher until like a year or two in once they’ve been seen multiple times.

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  21. Sev Gonzalez and Julio Rodiguez. They have been compared in the past on this site. Was JuRod ever this dominant? Severino Gonzalez’ WHIP is under 1 and he is just great command and control. He may not have the ideal size but everything else is superb. Like to see him back up at Clearwater soon.

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    1. ReaSteve (Philly): Severino Gonzalez has put up some impressive numbers this year, even as he’s being stretched out. Any thoughts?
      Matt Eddy: This is a point worth expounding on. Correspondent Jim Salisbury singled out 20-year-old Panamanian RHP Severino Gonzalez as the Phillies prospect who had taken the biggest step forward this season. He spent last season in the VSL but had adapted extremely quickly to full-season ball, opening the season in the High-A Clearwater bullpen (10.9 SO/9, 1.0 BB/9, 27 IP) before moving into the Low-A Lakewood rotation for the second half (2.45 ERA in 3 starts, 11.7 SO/9, 0.6 BB/9). The Phillies have to be excited by his potential. He’s added velocity as he’s matured, and now his performance has really captured attention.d this at Baseball America.

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    2. Romus – I think most agreed that Severino and Julio was a flawed comparison for a number of reasons. More upside in Gonzalez even at similar stages of their careers. Still, would like to see Severino against high A competition particularly so I get to see him up close and personal at Clearwater.

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      1. I am counting on you Stevo for some first hand scouting reports when Severino pitches in Clerawater. Bone up on your Spanish also to get some one-on-one ..

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    3. Julio’s age20 year in CLW was very, very dominant. The control was a concern, but he allowed only 102 hits in 156 IP, to go with 168 Ks. He did similar things the year before, splitting WPT and LWD.

      That being said, if the reports on his velocity reaching as high as 94 are true, then he is someone certainly worth following.

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  23. Once we get confirmation that Severino’s velocity can get to 93+, he’ll be in the top 10 easy. Guys with this kind of control AND strikeout ability dont come along too often.

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