Box Score Recap – 7/2/2013

Box Score Recap

Severino Gonzalez was perfect through six innings, and struck out 9. That’s not too bad. 4 hits combined on both sides in that game – Willie Carmona won that slugfest when his went over the fence. Dylan Cozens went deep – his second for Williamsport. And the Lehigh Valley crew was beaten by a pitcher named Lobstein, begging the question, would you rather be a pitcher named Lobstein, as in “lob the ball over the plate”, or a hitter named LOBstein, as in “men left on base”? I might have taken up tennis, I think.

Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.

http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130702

7-2-13 boxscores

71 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 7/2/2013”

  1. What level of power should be considered promising for Cozens, or at least to discontinue the Fudge comps?

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  2. I posted this in the previous thread, but its worth reposting. It has shaky video and some interesting quotes about Ramirez, including the fact that the mixes in four pitches:

    http://www.app.com/article/20130702/NJSPORTS0301/307020133/Gonzalez-hurls-gem-BlueClaws-top-Shorebirds?nclick_check=1

    “The strikeout-to-walk ratio left one major league scout nearly speechless. “Other than impressive I don’t know what to say,’’ he said. “Make up a word.’’

    Speaking through a translator (Carmona), Gonzalez said he felt amazing Tuesday.

    “I felt I was throwing a strike whenever I wanted,’’ Gonzalez said. “My curveball, fastball, cutter, changeup was working. Everything went well.’’”

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  3. Cozens seems like a rare offensive bright spot and will merit top 5 consideration… only 9 Ks in 13 games, which seems good for someone with a power bat.. and striking out much less than last year, so he is learning/improving

    Wish they would reset Gilles average in AAA.

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      1. I saw Cozens in person during spring training and, while I’m no scout, I was impressed. He easily has the most power in the system – it’s like a 65/75 tool. And he’s not a big hulking slow guy either – he looks like a real athlete with speed that might stick – he also does not look like a guy who is going to get fat or flabby – he’s lean, big as hell and cut. He’s a flat out stud.

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        1. Agreed, he looks like the DE he was abiout to me when baseball took him in another direction. He is a legit athlete in the Stanton mold.

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  4. Is the GCL season already over after 2 weeks? Feel like I haven’t sent a box score in forever.

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      1. Got it, thanks Matt. That team is definitely the most intriguing to me. On an unrelated note, it’s nice to see LGJ revert to his old ways.

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        1. nobody does a better larry impression than larry. I’m hoping that he breaks the strikeout record. 80 in 59 games.. too bad he missed that first month or he’d be and triple digits

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  5. Listened to Reading last night. A little late-inning life to the team. The announcer said that Seth Rosen was added to the AA All Star game. Good for him- he has been solid all season. One of the Lowest WHIPs in the EL. I think he has a really bright future and will continue to move in the system .

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  6. I’m not even sure what to say about Severino … I need more information on his secondary pitches, if he genuinely has elite feel for four different pitches perhaps he could develop into a sick knuckleballer, or even if he had a sinker at 90 mph… I will say, I’ve never seen a player with a K/BB ratio as good as his, as young as him, in as high a level as him… that’s quite a combination and if he continues to put up these kinds of numbers in AA and AAA he could very easily get the call up to the majors towards the end of next year out of the pen. (I suspect he starts the year in AA next year if this continues).

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    1. I already found it hard to take you seriously but this knuckleball comment cements it for me…

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    1. Steve compared to what was given out yesterday, it is chump change. I would love to know, how these prospect turn down more money to sign with certain teams. like the cubs yesterday sign a guy , that was offered more by other teams. I really believe that the guys who are advising these kids, and influence them, are getting paid by the big league clubs to sway the kid to sign with them, thinking of what matt said, that no one was going to sign profar but texas, who had build a relationship with the kid. I cant believe it more important to these kids poor latin players to go to a team, that they really dont know in the states for less money, unless they are being advised to do it, bet a lot of under the table money is pass around in that league to agents.

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      1. There is plenty of corruption, but also you have to think that if you think one organization is going to be better for your development (in the recent Tocci interview he said that he liked that the Phillies promised to bring him immediately stateside), that giving up a few hundred thousand now might be worth millions later if you develop better with them.

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        1. I remeber the story with Freddy Galvis, was the phillies scout bonded with him and his family. Freddy was offered more money from i think the devil rays, but signed with the phillies cuz of the bond him and his father had with the scout. I think that wss how it went i could be wrong.

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          1. Doesn’t sound too far off. It is fairly common with post 10th round American draftees. If you are the parents you are more comfortable sending your child away with someone you have met and gotten to know.

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        2. Matt:
          Not sure how to phrase this…but are Ven kids more mature/intellectually advanced then DR kids?

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          1. I think it is really dependent on the kid and their family, and I don’t want to make a generalization either way.

            I would say that kids from Venezuela are more baseball mature and intellectual then kids from the DR because they grow up playing organized baseball rather than working with trainers and playing in showcases (often pitchers are just working on FB velocity, hitters are trying to show power, and infielder trying to show fancy glovework and arms)

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    2. 230K is a significant amount, from the Phillies, for a position player. That size bonus usually means they start in GCL.

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    1. does franco lack patience??? i’m not sure i’ve heard that criticism before. he doesn’t strike out that much.

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      1. I think people see that he has few walks and freak out. Now I am as big of a sabremetrics guy as anyone but if you can solidly put the ball in play that is better than a walk. It will be interesting to see what happens when pitcher pitch around him more. (Why haven’t they yet?)

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        1. Franco walks enough that the relative weakness there is not a deal breaker, but of course all else being equal he would be an even more impressive prospect if he walked more.

          That’s an aside. The main reason I am responding is to address the “if you can solidly put the ball in play that is better than a walk” argument. Now, there are a few different ways to look at this. But if taking literally, then the evidence is unequivocally to the contrary – in virtually every situation, a walk is better than putting the ball in play.

          Now you’ll notice I left out “solidly put the ball in play.” A line drive is better than a walk. A fly ball and a ground ball are not. But even the best hitters don’t always hit the ball solidly, and obviously hitters have a limited ability to control what kind of contact they make in a given situation. Of course no one is saying that a player should lay off a good pitch to hit in the zone. But patient hitters – hitters who end up with a lot of walks – are making the right choice and having such players a on your team means more runs and more wins. If you have two players who are similar in every respect except one player walks 30 more times in a season and the other guy puts the ball in play 30 more times, the guy who walks more often is more valuable every time.

          That’s without even considering some ancillary benefits of greater patience, though some of those are probably not that relevant in Franco’s case (since he have enough plate discipline to keep pitchers honest, and because he is a good contact hitter).

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          1. While the lack of BBs is somewhat of a concern, the lack of strikeouts for a guy who hits the ball out of the park is something of an oddity. At Clearwater Franco was striking out at a 13.5% clip which is quite excellent for a power hitter. At Reading his K-rate is .03% (2Ks in 60PAs). That’s remarkable for anyone, let alone a kid seeing AA pitching for the first time. Overall for the season his K-rate stands at 11.7% (41Ks in 349PAs). Quite impressive.

            While I would like to see him take a few more walks, I continue to contend that the bigger issue is the number of balls he hits on the ground. With his high GB rate he’s unlikely to hit better than .260-.270 in the majors. That being said, it’s not necessarily difficult for a player to adjust his swing to get more air under the ball.

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            2. At the end of the day I’m not super concerned about the relative lack of BB in his case.

              Looking at the K rate (good) and ground ball rate (bad), I find the latter more puzzling than the former. (Not saying that you are necessarily claiming otherwise). There are a decent number of power hitters with good contact rates (and IMO it is indeed a very good sign if he can maintain his impressive K rate). Pujols comes to mind among contemporaries. But a power hitter with a high GB rate? That just seems really odd to me. But the numbers back it up.

              And , after actually looking at some numbers, I guess it isn’t as unusual as I might have thought. Trumbo and Cano are both guys who hit a decent number of home runs with a somewhat high ground ball rate, just to name two.

              Cano, surprisingly (to me anyway), looking at stats alone, profiles as kind of what you would like to see Franco become as a hitter. I say surprisingly because, before looking at his profile, the comp would never have occurred to me. He does hit more line drives than Franco thus far and has a better than average career BABIP. And Cano, while not fast, is obviously faster than Franco. Franco might – might – have a little more upside as a power hitter, but let’s be honest, if he has a 197 HR career through age 31 with a seasonal high of 35 I think we would all be thrilled.

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            3. “if he has a 197 HR career through age 31 with a seasonal high of 35 I think we would all be thrilled”

              Agreed – even if the home runs were accompanied by a .260-ish average. That’s a pretty good third baseman right there. Though I still think .260 is high-end if the GB% continues at its current rate. But even at .250 – with 30HRs, 100RBIs and solid defense – what’s not to like?

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            4. Agree, but see below, posted before I saw this response – IF he can maintain the low K rate (a big if), his BA will be higher than that. Maybe not .299, but easily above .280.

              I also am at least a little skeptical of his batted ball numbers, especially the low line drive rates.

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            5. Cano of course has a career .308 BA and approximately no one sees Franco matching that. And he won’t … but maybe he comes closer than people think he will, IF he can maintain the low K rates.

              I think most people tend to insufficiently weigh the importance of low K rates in achieving a high BA. I may just be stating the obvious (but it’s an obvious fact that I think is overlooked), but K rates are the single biggest factor in predicting BA. All else being equal, HRs are also important (because the BA on balls hit out of the park is 1.000), somewhat counter intuitively (given the image of K prone sluggers, but I said “all else equal”).. As a simple matter of math, the other factor in a high BA is BABIP, and people are concerned about whether Franco can maintain a good BABIP. But let’s say (I realize all of this is optimistic) a K rate of 12%, a HR rate of 5%, and a BABIP at about the league average, .300. That would make him a .299 hitter. I’m not projecting that, just saying that if he can maintain the K rate his BA is going to be better than a lot of people think.

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            6. Agree regarding K-rate; and a big part of the reason I am often puzzled when seeing posts of high expectations for a player with historical 30%+ K-rates in lower levels of the minors. Just this morning in viewing the GCL and Williamsport players stats my focus was on BB and K rates before anything else.

              Regarding BABIP, I would add that I feel there is something of an injustice to BABIP without breaking down a player’s balls-in-play rates to determine exactly how that BABIP is being achieved. Obviously with an exceptional LD rate it should not come as any surprise that the player would have a high BABIP, in fact, it should be expected. Talking evolution of advanced metrics, I would love to see a BABIP breakdown for each of the player’s batted ball types (i.e. FB, GB, LD).

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            7. I’ve read (don’t know if it’s true) that BABIP rates are, surprisingly, less related to the kind of breakdown that you propose, at least on an individual level. Don’t know if that is true; haven’t seen the actual studies.

              That aside, I think the real answer is simply to be really conservative about using BABIP. Believe it or not, I tend to do that myself. By “conservative,” I mean this:

              (a) Use it mainly to regress players to the mean when you see extreme BABIPs (high or low);
              (b) Absent a very large sample of major league data, assume tentatively that a player will BABIP somewhere between .270 and .330;
              (c) Within that range,assume a higher BABIP for (a) fast players, and (b) players who hit the ball hard and make line drive contact. Lower BABIP for the reverse.

              But b and c are very tentative, which is why I usually bring it up only when there are extreme values. That’s why I (until now) haven’t joined the Franco BABIP debate. I really don’t have any strong feelings one way or the other about what he will BABIP in the majors, though the lack of speed and apparent low LD rate are a little concerning.

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            8. “I’ve read (don’t know if it’s true) that BABIP rates are, surprisingly, less related to the kind of breakdown that you propose”

              Larry – I doubt you believe that a higher LD% does not inherently result in a higher BABIP. There’s no better off-the-bat outcome than a LD. GB% is it’s own animal though as the expected BABIP cannot be quantified in generic terms since BABIP for GBs would surely be influenced by an individual player’s speed from home to first.

              Below is link to Baseball Analysts, while quite old, does a fair job of diving into this subject.

              http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/01/babip_slicing_a.php

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            10. Steve,

              To be clear, there is no doubt that, on the level of league wide data (and probably looking RETROSPECTIVELY at individuals) high LD rates are correlated with higher BABIP. But it DOESN’T necessarily follow, and in fact is not that case (and this is the counter-intuitive part) that LD rates on an individual basis are terribly good predictors of BABIP.

              First of all, your link, while interesting, really doesn’t address the question. The main take away is that, unsurprisingly, fast guys get more hits on ground balls than do slow guys. (And parenthetically, while I don’t have data on this, I bet that a sufficient sample size of infield hit data is probably a decent predictor of high BABIP.)

              Read Anon’s link, It’s probably the study that the commentary that I refereed to is based on. I think it makes my point if you read it closely. It’s not that LD rate is irrelevant to projecting BABIP for an individual. It’s simply that it’s a lot LESS valuable that one would assume from the baseball wide data (which indeed show that line drives are MUCH more likely to result in a hit than ground balls or fly balls) and from simple common sense. If I’m reading the piece correctly, a big part of the reason for that is that LD rates, like BABIP (obviously not a coincidence) are quite variable from year to year.

              But all that aside, the bottom line is simply this: it’s really, really hard to project BABIP on an individual basis, period. Your best best IMO is probably a large (as in 3000 plus AB) sample of major league AB, though even that is far from perfect.

              Which brings me back to my original point – best to be conservative when projecting BABIP for individuals. especially absent a large amount of major league data.

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          2. This is so interesting.

            It reminds me of the time that Bill James ran simulated Babe Ruth seasons around a similar theme. In one set of simulated seasons, Babe Ruth had a prototypical Babe Ruth year – think Ruth in 1920 or 1921 – just off the charts in every category. In the other set of simulated seasons, to avoid the danger of Babe Ruth being Babe Ruth, the other team intentionally walked Ruth in every at bat. What James found was that the Yankees teams in which Ruth was intentionally walked in every at bat scored a lot more runs than the teams in which Ruth had awesome Ruth seasons. What this tells us, is not that walks are more valuable than hits (of course, they aren’t), but that, generally speaking, the certainty of a walk represents more value than the statistically expected outcome of any at bat by any hitter, including Babe Ruth. I say generally speaking because there may be certain specific instances where a walk is more likely to save a team runs than pitching to a hitter (for example, where runners are on second and third with one out and the batter is a power hitter with a high contract rate and good eye that has a favorable pitching match up – just an example, mind you).

            Okay, so moving on to Maikel Franco, what I think Larry is saying is that the certainty of a walk represents more statistical value than the expected statistical outcome of a ground ball, fly ball, but not a line drive (in other words, if you ran a statistically significant sample size of walks versus line drives, the line drives would, on the whole, produce more offensive value) – Larry, is that right? I haven’t seen studies on this, but it makes sense that this would be correct.

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            1. “if you ran a statistically significant sample size of walks versus line drives, the line drives would, on the whole, produce more offensive value”

              Catch – not to speak for Larry, but that’s absolutely correct for a multitude of reasons. Most obviously, LD’s produce XBHs and they also allow base runners to advance more than one base even on a single. BBs of course are limited to station-to-station advancement. BBs are good, very good, but there is nothing better in baseball than a LD.

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            2. Yeah, I said elsewhere that a line drive, as opposed to a ground ball or a fly ball, is more valuable than a BB. The problem is, of course, that a hitter has limited control over whether a particular BIP is a line drive. Otherwise every BIP would be a line drive!

              It does point out that (some situations aside) if a player gets a really good pitch to hit, he should swing away. But no one says otherwise. Oversimplifying a bit:

              (1) Even patient hitters will and should swing away at a fat pitch right over the plate.

              (2) On the other extreme, wild swingers, especially those with mediocre to poor contact skills, are hurting themselves both directly (fewer walks) and indirectly (pitchers will adjust and they will never see a good pitch to hit). Such hitters are rarely successful at the major league level over a significant period of time. Very good contact hitters can be an exception to this.

              (3) In the middle are a lot of guys who aren’t wild swingers but who are more aggressive on pitches which are in the zone, or close to in the zone, but not exactly :”fat” pitches to hit. These players absolutely capable of being good or even very good hitters, but as a GENERAL rule would do better if they were a little less aggressive. I say generally because every player is different, and as a rule I’m reluctant to suggest changes in approach when that approach is working. (Rollins is an example of both this kind of hitter, and a hitter who probably SHOULDN’T at this stage of his career be asked to change his approach.)

              Now, as for Franco specifically, yeah, I do think IN THEORY he could be more valuable if he was a little more patient, but given his results, I would NOT mess with his approach at all.

              (4) There probably are a few players – very few – who are not aggressive enough, who miss opportunities to swing at very hittable pitches. I think this is almost unheard of among major league hitters. There are just too many factors weeding these guys out in the minors (both in the sense of lack of success, and coaching which tends to encourage these types of players to become more aggressive.)

              And finally, the thing about the rare situations where a BIP is better than a BB, the team in the field has control over those situations. Unless you think that teams don’t issue enough IBB (if anything the opposite is true), in any situation where the hitter can take a walk, he should.

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            3. “There probably are a few players – very few – who are not aggressive enough, who miss opportunities to swing at very hittable pitches. I think this is almost unheard of among major league hitters.”

              Agreed, but if any hitter fit this description it was Bobby Abreu. I know he was a great statistical player and I know he won the team games on the whole, that is statistically indisputable, but I swear to God that, in big, important game situations, Bobby Abreu was hoping and trying to get a walk rather than get the game-winning hit. He’s about the only guy I can think of who might have fit this description and I am not an Abreu hater – but I know what I saw because I saw it a LOT.

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            4. And as for the lack of studies, one could pretty easily piece together a couple different studies (linear weights of batting events and LD data) and come up with the expected value of a LD versus a walk. I haven’t done that, but it would almost HAVE to show a significant advantage for line drives.

              Okay, let me do some very rough math.

              Assume 80% of line drives are hits (solid data). I DON’T have a breakdown on type of hits, but VERY CONSERVATIVELY using global data for all hits, let’s say that breaks down to (over 100 AB) 62 singles, 16 doubles, and 2 triples (I believe that “line drive” home runs, aside from the inside the park variety, are categorized as fly balls).

              Using the following linear weights (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/1/4/1912914/custom-woba-and-linear-weights-through-2010-baseball-databank-data), that’s 78 runs per 100 line drives. Versus 70 runs per 100 BB. That’s closer than I would have thought, BUT in the real world the edge is greater, as I’m sure the EBH % is much higher for line drives. So yeah, definite edge to the LD, Add in the fact that categorizing LD HR as fly balls is an artificial and somewhat arbitrary decision, and the real edge would be even greater (though most HR are fly balls.)

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            5. Very good discussion here and hopefully most don’t feel its a belabored one;

              Larry – agree with 99% of what you have stated earlier, but wish to digress to some degree and instead focus on one of your statements that falls into the 1% for me.

              “To be clear, there is no doubt that, on the level of league wide data (and probably looking RETROSPECTIVELY at individuals) high LD rates are correlated with higher BABIP. But it DOESN’T necessarily follow, and in fact is not that case (and this is the counter-intuitive part) that LD rates on an individual basis are terribly good predictors of BABIP”

              This speaks to my argument of using advanced metrics so generically as they haven’t evolved to the point that any single metric leads one to a single, consistent conclusion when applied to the masses. There are simply too many variables to consider, even more so when attempting to apply to individual players who may have unique skill sets and physical abilities (e.g. speed). Notwithstanding this and reverting back to your above statement, I would say that LD rate is the single best metric currently available (at least in the mainstream) in predicting BABIP. Over a large enough sample, I’d contend that the BABIP as it applies to LDs (and only LDs) would be remarkably consistent when applied to both the masses and the individual. I wouldn’t say this about FBs and I wouldn’t say this about GBs. While I haven’t conducted a study on the matter, I suspect that there are very few instances of individual players with high LD rates, say, above 22%, who also have low BABIPs.

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            6. Steve, I don’t think we’re saying anything much different. If anything, I’m taking perhaps the less “stat head” position here, in being reluctant to project BABIP period. And I’ve said before that I would probably consider subjective factors (speed, swing) before statistical data if I was going to project BABIP at all.

              Which brings up an interesting point. Some of the stat battles on this site (not so much with you) end up being people using raw stats versus the “SABR” guys. And I think it is perceived as a bunch of stat geeks relying too much upon advanced metrics versus more “traditional” statistical analysis. But in reality (and again, this isn’t directed at you) I think it’s more often the stat guys who, rather than necessarily relying upon advanced metrics, who are counseling a kind of epistemic modesty when using any kind of stats. That’s what a lot of the “sample size” arguments come down.to.

              And for those who think it’s labored, they don’t have to read it, but on reflection maybe we should have put it in the “general” section despite the relation to Franco.

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            7. But let’s ballpark it at 100 runs per 100 line drives – it CAN’T be much higher than that – and it’s still not as much of an edge over a BB as even I would have thought. Which just goes to show that, if you look at the data, there is just no disputing that BB are hella valuable.

              Now, the two criticisms I would make of SOME stat guys (though IMO not of the big names, not the guys who do this for a living, as they tend to realize the truth of what I am about to say) are alluded to above, and are as follows:

              (a) They sometimes tend to ignore the problems with changing players’ approaches, and (b) BB rates and patience are not the same thing; they are related but there are other factors effecting BB rates (chiefly power). This error is made a lot.

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  9. I saw that the Tigers prospect Nick Castellanos(mentioned in a possible Papelbon trade) played for Toledo against the Iron Pigs last night. Did anyone see him play and what were your thoughts as he is hitting .296 in AAA?

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    1. I thought it was funny that Lobstein only had one strikeout in 5 innings. But as long as I wasn’t a pitcher named Balfour (Ball four) I think I’d be okay.

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      1. Sorry that wasn’t meant to be a reply, but I will say that I saw Castellanos on tv against the Pigs the other day. He went 3-5 and looked quite impressive. Hit the ball hard to center and right field.

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        1. Thanks he looks like a good player and could help the Philles solidy their OF for a long time.

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          1. I’m inclined to think that this is a more realistic possibility than the many Utley scenarios, though still an over pay (by Detroit) and still (unfortunately) unlikely. Hope I’m wrong and I may be.

            My one worry is that Amaro wouldn’t pull the trigger on it if the offer is there.. While probably more sympathetic than many around here regarding his “we’re not blowing things up” mentality, Papelbon may be the one guy who best combines trade value with relative lack of serious short term harm to the club in letting him go.

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            1. Larry, it may not be Amaro’s call in some cases like Utley but the ownerships decision.

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    1. That’s excellent news. Someone on here had mentioned that Morgan was scheduled to return this week as well. Any confirmation on that?

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    3. Perkins went 2-3 with a walk, double, and home run to left. His one out was a fly ball into the right-center gap that he just missed. He looks like he could play for the Threshers tonight if they would let him.

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  11. So any guesses when Dugan will be promoted? He could easily be slotted into that Reading lineup and OF.

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    1. dugan and altherr have both been impressive this year but I would think they haven’t been promoted yet because they both strike out too much but they are both 22 already too so I don’t think it would hurt to give them some AA at bats and see how they respond

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  12. FYI – going to see Reading at Trenton tomorrow night with the wife (if you’re going to be there, give me a holler – I’d love to say hi) – I’ll report back on Franco and Biddle (and maybe Kelly Dugan? Who knows?). I will see both players again two weeks from now at the Futures Game in NYC – I’ll report back generally on that one too. Now THAT should be fun.

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      1. LOL!!! No, I won’t bill you, but I might sue you!!! Seriously, I will be in section K, row R – I will be wearing a red Phillies colored cap with crossed bats and “2013” on the front (Phillies give away this year). Come by and say hello – will be with the wife who got into baseball when the team was winning big and is now enjoying the great and historically accurate pain of being a Phillies fan.

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    2. I got 2 free tickets and parking last week from my work, which is in Trenton. I am taking my 7 year old and will be right behind the visiting dugout. I was so excited to see the moving of Biddle’s start after the rainout lined him up for tomorrow.

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  13. Perkins 2-3 2B, HR in his first game back. Looks like the wrist is healed up. Would love for his doubles power to start converting to a few more homers and his walk rate to rise. But it looks like his hit tool is defeinitely a plus and he doesn’t strike out. Solid prospect.

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    1. his upper body has always looked thin to me. He would need to change that if he wants those doubles into HR.

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      1. Maybe he is changing it. ISO went from .104 to .176 after a double jump. But yeah he needs to be in the 15+ HR range to be a viable RF.

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  15. Crain on the DL. Really thins out the market for relievers and good news for Amaro if he is looking to deal Papelbon.

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