The ‘Pigs played the eighth game of a nine game homestand last evening and ended the homestand with a 5-2 loss to Toledo,. Over the course of the homestand, Lehigh Valley is 4-4 and now sit at 45-40 and in 2nd place of the Northern Division of the International League, 6.5 games behind division leading Pawtucket. The ‘Pigs are tied for the wild card lead with Norfolk.
‘Pigs Prospects: Cody Asche has hit safely in 10 of his last 11 games and is hitting .400 (16-40) over that timeframe, and is over .280 on the year, continuing to show decent power and some speed to go along with good defense. He went almost the entire month of June without an error (27 games), finally committing an error on the 30th of June. His power numbers are increasing as his last 200 AB’s have yielded 7 HR’s, after just one in his first 100 AB’s. Struggling a bit against LHP (.241) and with RISP (.236).
Ethan Martin was named IL pitcher of the Week for last week, going 2-0 with an 0.643 ERA in his two starts. Over his last 4 starts (all wins), Martin is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA, and is currently tied for the International League lead in wins with 9. The most significant sta for Martin is that when he allows three walks or fewer, he is 7-0 with a 2.92ERA (9 games). When he allows four walks or more, he is 2-3 with a 7.08 ERA (7 games). Control is clearly the key. Notably, he does hold runners on well as of the 11 would be basestealers against him, 6 have been thrown out.
Cameron Rupp has done exactly what Lehigh Valley would hope, which is provide good defense and add a bit of offensive punch which he did over the last several days with his first two AAA homers. Rupp is at .233 with 2HR and 10 RBI since joining Lehigh Valley, and has thrown out 5 of the 13 baserunners attempting to steal on him.
Freddy Galvis is leading off and has gone 3-17 in his first four games since rejoining Lehigh Valley. Too early for any real commentary other than to say that I think it was a good decision to send Galvis down to allow him to play every day. Nothing productive was gained from Galvis sitting on the bench in the majors and this allows Hernandez and Galvis to play together, which they had done only 5 times before this weekend.
Leandro Castro returned from the DL with a two hit game on Monday evening againt Toledo, adding his 14th SB. Prior to going on the DL, Castro was hitting over .300 in his last 23 games with 4HR and 5SB. On the year, Castro is hitting .226 against RHP; .343 vs. LHP, and .323 with RISP.
Next Week: Ruf, Robles, Cloyd, Hernandez, Gillies
News and Notes: Lehigh Valley shut out Toledo on back to back occasions on Sunday and Monday and now lead the league with 9 shutouts.
–Lehigh Valley was 19-10 in June, the best record in the International League.
–Over the three games Saturday thru Monday, Cesar Hernandez was 10-14 (all singles).
–Michael Martinez has hit safely in 17 of his last 20 games, hitting .397 over that span (27-68).
–Steve Susdorf remains VERY consistent having hit in 9 of his last 13 games, for an average of .368 (15-41). Impressive with the limited playing time he gets.
–In his last 13 games, P Cesar Jiminez is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and a save. Over 20IP, he has walked 5 and struck out 23.
‘Pigs Leaders, (thru Monday)Hitting: Cody Asche is 6th in AB’s (309), 10th in RBI’s (47); 8th in hits (87), 6th in triples (4) and 8th in strikeouts( 78); Cesar Hernandez leads the league in triples (7); is 9th in OBP (.379) and is 3rd in SB’s (26); Cody Overbeck is 9th in HR (15); Darin Ruf is 5th in strikeouts (83); Josh Fields is 5th in avg (.321)
Pitching: Ethan Martin is 2nd in wins (9), 2nd in walks (52), 7th in strikeouts (75), 4th in starts (16); Tyler Cloyd is 6th in losses (7), 2nd in HR allowed (15); Jake Diekman in 7th in saves (11);
Transactions: Another busy week…Last Friday, Freddy Galvis joined the team after being optioned from Philadelphia;SS Troy Hanzawa was sent back to Reading; P Carlos Zambrano was placed on the DL (Shoulder stiffness) and P BJ Rosenberg was activated from the DL. On Monday, OF Jermaine Mitchell was released, OF Tyson Gillies was promoted from Reading; OF Derrick Mitchell was sent down to Reading and OF Leandro Castro was activated from the DL.
Phuture Phillies 
Saw the Iron Pigs played against Mike Cervanek tonight whose almost 37!!! Anybody know who the oldest player in the minors is?
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Somebody get that guy a cup of coffee , for gods sake
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He had a cup in ’08… got a WS ring for it too. Not bad
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I think I saw Miguel Batista out there earlier this year, who is most likely around 40/41.
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All prospects in the line-up for the Pigs tonight with the exception of DH, Fields. What a difference from having one or two!
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When do you guys think Asche and Martin will be up? I also think if the team goes into total sell mode, Susdorf could be one of those easy to DFA September call ups, I have always loved his bat as a pinch hitter hopefully he can keep it up.
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Ashe will be up as soon as they trade MYoung. Martin probably not until September and that will only occur if he can sustain his recent success.
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I would not be surprised if Asche is called up by the end of the month. My thought there is that he will be the replacement for M. Young, if/when he is traded. If Young is not traded, Asche will be a September call up, at the latest (With the assumption that Asche is the 3rd baseman next year, I could see the benefit of trying to get him some more MLB time. The challenge there is that you still want to showcase M. young – and you don’t want to bring up Asche to sit on the bench).
Barring an injury or trade of a starter, I don’t see Martin coming up in the near future. While it appears that his control has recently been much better, this is a guy who still has a 1.43 WHIP – 52 walks in 86 innings. He needs more time to harness his control.
Also, If you called him up today – who does he replace? If he keeps pitching well, he could be a September call up.
FYI – I had kind of lost track of Martin, and how he has been pitching must better of late. It is a great sign to see some recent progress (yeah – SSS), but I will take it. It sounds like he has very good upside – IF he can gain better control/command.
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Even If the Phillies trade Michael Young, I still don’t expect Asche to come up before September. I think they will want him to get a full AAA season under his belt. I think that Frandsen would become the regular third baseman and either Galvis, Martinez or Pete Orr would be brought up to fill the infield.backup role.
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As far as Martin is concerned, there are quite a few people ahead of him, including probably Roy Halladay. I doubt that we will see him this year on the Phils. However, it is very encouraging that he is pitching better of late and next season, who knows?
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Asche has the OBP up to .347; not spectacular by any means, but moving in the right direction.
In 2002 at AAA Scranton, Utley produced the following line during his age 23 season (he turned 24 in December of that same year):
.263 / .352 / .461 / .813
Utley had 57 XBHs including 39 doubles and 17 home runs in 464 ABs
8.61 BB-rate
16.6 K-rate
This year at AAA Lehigh Valley, Asche has produced the following line during his age 22 season (he turned 23 on June 30th making him 6-months younger than Utley’s 2002 season):
.284 / .347 / .450 / .797
Asche has 32 XBHs including 20 doubles and 8 home runs in 313 ABs which would leave him with 47 XBHs over the same 464 ABs Utley managed in 2002.
8.48 BB-rate
22.8 K-rate
The above is not intended to mean that Asche will have a similar career as Utley but instead to illustrate that there’s not a whole lot of difference between the first AAA seasons of these two players. Asche just turned 23, days ago, and I think that often gets lost in his evaluation. Utley with more doubles and a lower K-rate, but in nearly every other area they are quite comparable.
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The problem with using Utley’s AAA season as a comparison for Asche is that Utley was double jumped to there.
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I hear you Aron but Asche is also 6-months younger; many variables to consider but on its face their performances are certainly comparable. In a perfect world I would love to see Asche repeat AAA next season though that seems very unlikely to happen given that there’s likely to be an opening at 3B with the big club and some guy named Franco will be at AAA next year (or this year)
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And stayed there for parts of three seasons. Incidentally, Asche was also 2x jumped in the system.
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Aye but Asche was given the common college player A- to A+ double bump. And we are comparing a year of a double bump to a year of a single bump.
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Yes. They both ended up at AAA during their 23 year old season so the age/development comp is valid IMO.
Utley/Asche really isn’t a bad comp (particlualry in regards to work ethic, swing, and demonstrated defensive improvement), and it’s one I’ve made before. Though Utley was a much more highly rated guy coming out of college in the eyes of scouts always had more power projection than Asche is projected to develop. The same can be said for speed and baserunning ability. Plus 2B is more of a premium position.
Still, a somewhat poor man’s Utley at 3B is not a bad thing at all.
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Though Uts can not play 3rd, even at Scranton it was a chore.
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Steve,
The biggest problem with any kind of comp on Utley is that the variance between his minor league performance and eventual major league performance is unusually large. So it doesn’t have much salience even using the comparison the way you are using it. There are tons and tons of players with comparable performance in AAA at a comparable age. 99.9% of them aren’t going to come within a country mile of Utley’s career.
Because of that, Utley is a particularly poor comp for ANYONE. He is sui generis.
Now, that said reasonable people can differ on what Asche is likely to be. You have Art who thinks he is likely a future star (if I understand him correctly), Catch and, I assume, you, don’t see him at quite that level but (if I am reading you guys correctly) see him as a guy who can be an above average regular, People like myself like him a lot and think he can be an average regular (at third base, not in a corner outfield spot). Finally you have the scouting/expert consensus, which still has doubts about whether he can even be a regular on a contending team.
And we can debate those projections. I’m not dogmatic about my projection (except to the limited extent that I think the most extreme optimism is probably unjustified). I just don’t think Utley comps give us any guidance, even used the way you are using them.
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Don’t disagree Larry – and the comp was more from a perspective of being ‘interesting’ rather than an attempt to predict Asche’s future performance. And yes, you are correct in that I see Asche as an above-average regular and not the MVP-type that Utley eventually developed into.
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Dear Steve and Larry – it is nice to see you guys getting along. I enjoy both of your posts and would hate to see either of you leave the site. Have a great holiday!
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LOL. Thanks catch. Been meaning to ask you; saw your post yesterday re Morgan but haven’t been able to confirm his return. Have you found anything on your end?
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Yeah, that’s a pretty good take. Typically, a guy with Asche’s skills would project to an average regular at best, but I think the likely outcome is somewhat better than that because, in terms of drive and work ethic, this guy is off the charts. I think the likely outcome (30-35%) is an above average third baseman (I agree that you diminish his value greatly if he shifts to the outfield, where he would probably be average to below average even if this go fairly well), but I think there’s a small chance (20% or less) that he ends up as a minor star (of the Chase Headley/Mike Lowell variety – a 4-5 WAR player in a good season), a decent chance he ends up as an average regular (30%), and a not an insignificant chance that he ends up as a below average third baseman or AAAA player (20%), in which case, he won’t be on the Phillies for long because he will likely be supplanted and made irrelevant by Mikael Franco. I think given’s Asche’s ascent, his work ethic and Franco’s rise, it is quite possible that the Phillies will tinker again with the second base experiment with Asche. If he could be average to slightly below average in the field, his bat would play unbelievably well at second and, as a fan who loves to root for players who “leave it on the field” I would enjoy watching Cody Asche play almost anywhere. He’s a guy I very much want to see succeed.
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My biggest complain with Cody Asche is his first name. Makes me think of that other stinkin’ Cody that played for the Giants. (could the Phillies have not pitched around him a few years back.. And that stinkin bat flip).
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Maybe if the Phillies had Cliff Lee instead of trading him, that serious outcome would also be different.
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Asche is like a truck, just keeps going and gaining momentum. At every stop in the last 2 years he has started slowly and then the numbers went up the rest of the way. One of the best things about his numbers is how consistent he is. Almost every night you’ll see a hit or two with a walk and a double mixed in. Dude is just a solid baseball player, can’t wait to see him in Philly this year.
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At the beginning of last year, I said he would be in the majors by the end of 2013 and people thought I was crazy – I see no reason to alter that prediction. He’s a ballplayer, plain and simple.
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On the question of Asche’s future, given the fact that most of us agree that Franco is a better prospect, I remain skeptical of a move to the OF for reasons previously stated.
I do, however, find the idea of a move to second base intriguing. My baseline assumption is that they would not have moved him off second if they thought he could handle it. But, at the risk of engaging in my own magical thinking, maybe that isn’t the case. if not, and assuming decent defense there, he projects as an above average regular, possibly well above average.
If he could play second, he fills a big hole for the team going forward. I want them to try to re-sign Utley, but he won’t play forever; I still don’t buy Hernandez as a solution, and, while it is way too early to give up on Pullin, he hasn’t exactly gotten off to a great start this season.
Maybe more to the point, Asche as a second baseman, Franco at third, Brown in a corner OF slot, Revere, Hamels, Biddle, Morgan … all of the sudden, that’s a decent core. It lacks star power, except for Hamels, but those guys could all be above average regulars (and maybe more) or top/mid rotation starters. That would at least be something to build around. A couple FA signings, a couple other prospects developing as expected, maybe breakouts from one or two other prospects, maybe a decent return from Papelbon (or even Lee eventually, though likely not this year) … we could be back in business.
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I was thinking the same way about Asche as a 2B when someone said in another thread that Asche actually wasn’t a bad 2B but the Phillies moved him back to 3B because the Phillies thought he had more value there.
As for the core/lineup, I also agree. That’s why I would love it if the Phillies could get a decent return by moving a few pieces such as Utley, Papelbon, and/or possibly Lee (I’m less sold on trading Lee) if you could get back a Castellanos or a Pederson you’ve got your (potential) star power and third outfielder. And I am not even one of those that thinks each of those Phillies brings back two or three top prospects..
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I think Hernandez is a lot closer to Asche as a prospect than we are giving him credit for, especially at 2B. They are basically the same age. Hernandez has a significant base running and defensive advantage over Asche. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say he’d be two wins better than Asche in those two areas. Asche is probably the better hitter, but I’m not sure they’re that much different. Hernandez has the better wOba (.359 to .355) this year. Asche clearly has more power, but Hernandez clearly has better contact skills. Also, Hernandez is a switch hitter with limited platoon splits while Asche seems to have trouble versus left handed pitching. Really, the only advantage Asche has is the ability to hit right handed pitching. Hernandez is better in every aspect of the game.
I don’t think Asche has a future as anything other than a platoon at 3B. Fortunately we have the perfect situation for that right now with Frandsen, so I’m all for giving him a shot and hoping he’ll be a pleasant surprise.
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(1) Defense and base running – this is a bit of an unknown IMO. Base running clearly yes, but maybe a half a win at most and IMO probably less (judging on limited data, i.e., SB rates, Asche seems like a smart runner despite being slower than Hernandez. As much as I HATE the Utley comp, as base runners it may make some sense).. Defense is less clear, but I’d be shocked it it was anywhere near 1 1/2 wins. I haven’t seen anything to suggest that Hernandez is anything special at second base. I have no idea ultimately how good Asche would be at second, but I’m assuming for the sake of argument that he would be decent. If not, then yeah, he wouldn’t excite me as a second baseman.
(2) Hitting, Asche has a significant edge in power even assuming he doesn’t make big strides in that respect. I think both players will somewhat disappoint people in terms of BA, but I see Asche having a small edge there. Plate discipline, if you look at them on career basis, is an edge to Asche. Yeah, I know this year Hernandez is a little better, but not much. And in the majors, I think his lack of power would mean he would be challenged more by pitchers. IMO Asche in the majors would have a higher BB%. So as hitters, I see Asche with an edge across the board. I don’t see Hernandez better platoon splits even coming close to outweighing all of that. If you asked me to eyeball it, I’d peg Asche as a major league average hitter, and Hernandez 10 to 20 percent below average. (And the latter is more optimistic than projections by statistical projection systems such as ZIPs).
Again, all this ASSUMES Asche can make the transition to second. If not, well, not.
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I might be wrong, but I’ve been under the impression that Hernandez is a very good defensive 2B. Good enough that some people were speculating whether he could play SS in a utility roll. More anecdotally, the Phillies usually don’t promote guys aggressively unless they’re good defenders. Hernandez falls into that category. Based on that I assumed he would be in the second tier of 2B defensively. Last year those players saved 10 runs (1 win). I think it’s safe to say Asche would be below average at 2B even if he’s playable there, based on scouting reports and the fact that he was moved off the position. A below average 2B would be in the -5 to -10 run range, or .5 to 1 win. I feel pretty comfortable saying Hernandez has about 1.5 win advantage on defense.
As far as baserunning goes, you’re right, it’s hard to judge. Agree that Asche may have Utley’s instincts, but I don’t think he has Utley’s speed. A slower version of Utley could still be an average base runner, so maybe it’s only a slight advantage to Hernandez, but I think Cesar still has the edge.
Agree with your offensive assessments, except I do think Hernandez will hit for a higher average than Asche. I do think there’s a pretty clear advantage to Hernandez in contact rate. Overall though, yeah, ASche is the better hitter, but I don’t think he makes up the 1.5 to 2 win difference in baserunning/fielding. To give an example, the difference between Dom Brown and Ben Revere on offense alone this year is 1.8 wins. That’s how much better Asche would have to be than Hernandez to pull even with him in value.
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Cesar Hernandez played one game at ss this year haha
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and also on a serious note in 64 games in A – Asche had a .954 fielding percentage so what does that say
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Pat,
Forget about Asche for a minute. If Hernandez really is 1 win above average on defense and 1/2 a win above average as a base runner, he is a heck of a prospect. He wouldn’t have to hit much to be at least a solid regular, and if he ends up even an average hitter, as a second baseman he would be a 3.5 WAR player.
But I don’t have any reason at this point to see him as a plus defender. Look, both of us are speculating obviously, but I start with a baseline assumption that a prospect is average defensively, and I need evidence to shift me from that assumption. Not statistical evidence, but evidence of some sort. None of your points budge me from that starting assumption. The positive comments about his defense are mostly from commenters on this site who haven’t seen him play, or haven’t seen him play much. There’s none of the buzz – from scouts, experts, etc. – that usually accompanies a plus defender (see, e.g., Galvis). Oh, I’m sure he is fine, but plus 1.0 win defenders at second base are rare.
I’d love to be proven wrong on this. If I could be convinced he was plus 1.5 wins on defense and base running alone, my skepticism of him as a prospect would disappear.
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So her’e is a comp for Hernandez if he really is as a good a defender as Pat assumes – a faster Orlando Hudson circa 2010. Not making that projection at all, as I said I’m still a skeptic, but if true that puts a much different complexion on his prospect status.
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i think the Phillies will try Asche at second again because he did good there at the beginning of his careers and his bat is better there and we should honestly see if Cesar Hernandez can play SS. its not crazy i just want to see all of these guys on the field at the same time. i think they could both handle it
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and Hernandez has played SS before
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Serious question for those on the list that watch LHV: Would replacing D. Young with Fields cause any negative effect on the Phillies’ ability to win games?
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