Box Score Recap – 7/1/2013

Box Score Recap

Cesar Hernandez has been putting on quite a show the last couple days – he’s 10 for his last 14, (all singles), and stole 3 bases last night. He’s now 26/32 on the year, or 81+%. Strong outing from David Buchanan, working into the ninth and allowing just 1R, 5H, 3BB and striking out 5 in 8 1/3IP. And for the second straight day, Cameron Rupp goes deep for Lehigh Valley. Here’s a little write-up on him from MiLB.com. It appeared on the bottom of my Box Score page as a “You Might Also Like”. They know me so well.

Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.

http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130701

7-1-13 boxscores

121 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 7/1/2013”

  1. 3- and 4-hole hitters in stateside leagues: 1-33, 6 Ks. Not a banner day.

    On the plus side, nice to see Gillies get on base twice in four ABs in his return to AAA. Also, congrats to Cam Rupp on his second dinger. I can see him splitting time with Kratz next season if Ruiz leaves.

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        1. But they can tender Ruiz an offer so that they get a pick if he signs elsewhere. It would be an expensive one year deal but they have plenty of room under the luxury tax ceiling.

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            1. It comes down to do you want to entrust next year to a career minor who has been solid in a backup/fill-in role and a minor league with one season above A ball who projects as a backup or overpay for a fan favorite veteran for a one year deal that doesn’t really effect your long term financial outlook. I don’t think either decision pushes the Phillies into the playoffs next year. One other thing to consider is the rumbling from spring training/early in the season that certain pitchers didn’t care for how Kratz called games.

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            2. I think they’ll try to extend Chooch with a reasonable (cheap) 2 yr deal right now. If he doesn’t want to take it, they’ll trade him before the month is out.

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    3. Really doubt the Phillies go into 2014 with a catching combination of a career minor leaguer and a guy with limited experience above A-ball.

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      1. Kratz was 1.3 fWAR last season and is nearly 1 fWAR in limited play this season. That’s not fantastic, obviously, but if Ruiz doesn’t resign, he’s certainly a capable stopgap before Rupp or Joseph is ready to step in.

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        1. Plus there are always journeymen catchers in the offseason to sign if they don’t think Rupp is ready to at least be a back up.

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    4. Rupp & Kratz combo would be fans delight. Knapp could move to AA fairly quick. Joseph has time to figure things out.

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  2. Not a pretty line for Mitch Gueller. Also, Maikel Franco went a whole game without a hit–maybe Jason Parks was right about him after all…

    Two hits for Galvis in the leadoff spot. Question for the group: how do we feel about how the Phillies have handled his development? Should they have held onto Betancourt (who has been awful after his fast start for the Brewers) and let Galvis spend most of the season in AAA, the way Hernandez has? Obviously, hindsight is 20-20, I’m not judging the front office for wanting to get his glove on the field given this team’s aging infield, but I feel like we’re no closer to knowing whether he’s ever going to hit consistently enough to be a major league regular. And maybe we won’t until he finally gets an extended stretch at being one–which may be soon.

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    1. He did get 164 PA in the majors … I’m inclined to think that those PA against major league pitching were more valuable than full time play in AAA. Or at least it’s a close enough call that you can’t really fault management.

      I’ve really gone back and forth about him this season, violating my own beliefs regarding SSS. But the overall line has not been pretty. And if you look at his batted ball data, it really supports the subjective impression that he has adjusted his swing to go for more power. Fly ball rate up, line drive rate down, and infield fly ball percentage way up IMO a bad choice for a player of his type, if that is what he is doing. Yes, still a SSS but concerning.

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      1. The problem is how he got those plate appearances. Galvis would sit for a week and a half to two weeks and then Manuel would realize that he was supposed to play him and Gavis would start three or four games in a row. Then the bulk of his time came once Utley got hurt (at which point his line tanked).

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      2. I think Freddy benefitted from being in the majors for a while but then backslide for some reason. He started swinging wildly at anything and tried to yank everything. At that point, a few weeks ago, he needed to go back to AAA to play everyday and get his swing back. he went hitless his first few games at AAA also. Hopefully, he’ll put the work in and come back around. I’m still not sure he’ll ever be more than a utlity guy however.

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    2. Again it comes to the problem with how Manuel says he will handle his bench and then how he actually does. Initially he said that Galvis would start 2-3 games a week. This seemed reasonable considering he could spell older veterans like Utley, Rollins, and Young. But no matter what he says he is going to do Manuel has a hard time not writing down the name of the veterans when he fills out the lineup card.

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      1. I think you make my point more clearly than I did. IF Galvis would have gotten 3 starts a week that would have been fine with me- but he didn’t. The only reason that he has the number of PAs that he has is because Utley got hurt. And they could have simply called him when that happended. They’ve more or less wasted him the rest of the time.

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      2. Don’t forget the name Michael Martinez, who, after saying that he would not have at-bats, Charlie put on the line-up card frequently.

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      3. Hell Manuel did it twice this year once with Galvis and don’t forget he started doing it to Hernandez and someone finally got their head on straight and sent him back to AAA if they were not going to use him. IMO this is why Charlie has not received an extension and will not be back. He is not the type of manager to trust young kids and bring them along and that is where the team is heading probably sooner than later. Charlie has been a good manager for this team for many years, notice i said good not great. He has had his flaws, but all managers have flaws. But his managing strengths and where the team is personnel wise are 2 very different places, and that is why when they start moving some pieces it may be time to also pull the trigger on charlie.

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    3. I think they handled Galvis poorly. He should have been getting ABs in AAA to start the season. They wanted a versatile defensive INF on the roster (which is undertsandable) but there was never going to be enough ABs for Galvis to start the season until injuries occurred (and they simply could have called him up from AAA when Utley went on the DL). They should have found someone else for that role IMO. Though, to be fair, they have recognized that mistake and are now correcting it.

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      1. Also interesting to me is that they bypassed Pete Orr who is younger than McDonald and who has equal to if not greater defensive versatility plus a slightly better bat. Orr doesn’t have McDonald’s defensive reputation but I think the difference in the two is marginal in the overall context of number of game outcomes affected.

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        1. I guess I diagree on the versailtity angle since McDonald can play SS, 2B and 3B at a fairly high level. Plus Orr hasn’t played SS in the major leagues for 5 or 6 years. But then again, how often is Jimmie not at SS?

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          2. Orr has played a lot of SS at LHV and I know that there is a difference between AAA and ML, but I also know that McDonald is costing the Phillies a lot more. Just don’t see the difference in impact on winning games other than McDonald is supposedly a “great clubhouse guy.”

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          3. McDonald USED to be able to play them all at a very high level…how well can he do it now at Age 38 and how much of it is his reputation from his days in Toronto.

            FWIW, McDonald used to be the name thrown around quite a bit for Freddy Galvis’s upside as a player.

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    4. I think he should have been in AAA all year. I do like that they were able to get him some ABs in the majors, but I don’t like that they were often sporadic. I was in favor of Galvis starting in the majors just because the alternative (Betancourt) was so bad. They should have brought in another guy from the start so Galvis could play in LHV.

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  3. Question for the board: If his current play remains the same for the remainder of the season, does Anthony Hewitt break into the back of anybody’s top 30?

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    1. No, still too much swing and miss. It is hard to be a 4th OF without being able to fake CF, and Hewitt is still going to have to prove on each level he can keep his head above water with a high strikeout rate.

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    2. It would take some significantly bad second halves from a bunch of guys in the 20-40 range and a stellar second half from Hewitt to get him close to my top 30, I think. Nothing he can do, (short of strike out at a rate of 1 per week from here on out or something), can help him pass all the less-flawed guys ahead of him.

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    3. Agree with the comments above. He would break back into the discussion if he could play CF but as a corner OF, his numbers need to be much better, especially the K-rate.

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    4. He’ll improve his own stock if he keeps it up, which is a positive enough development. But I think there are enough guys ahead of him that he won’t see the top 30. He’s a little old and still strikes out too much to be in the Top 30.

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  4. – Post Removed. I realize we want to share information but copying and pasting of information behind pay-walls is prohibited, give a quick synopsis instead.

    -Matt

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      1. Parks really doesn’t like Franco’s swing, says its too long and he won’t have a good hit tool in the majors. He also doesn’t like Franco’s defense and suggests he’s lackadaisical. ” I don’t want to suggest he is lazy based on a weekend series, but I watched his actions from first contact with the field during workouts all the way through the games, and I would suggest he approaches the game with less intensity than others.”

        Final line from his teardown:

        “He’s a future major leaguer and maybe even a regular, but I don’t see the first-division player other have been writing about.”

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        2. If you don’t want to suggest he’s lazy based on a weekend series, then don’t suggest it.

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          1. Why does everyone’s nose get bent out of shape when legitimate scouting resources discourage one of our prospects? For weeks it was the sarcasm that went with the “arm bar swing” and “but Franco will never be a top 50 prospect”. Now I imagine we can add laziness…That’s 2 major publications now that state the same thing and one amateur scout who’s says the opposite. Frankly I’m willing to put more faith in them then the dozens of readers here who only know how to read box scores.

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            1. What other publication has mentioned Franco is a lazy player? Personally, I’m not one to get defensive when scouts point out weaknesses in a prospect’s game. I do not, however, care for someone who is scouting a player for the first time saying he is lazy, and prefacing it with a “I don’t want to make a rash judgment here, but I’m going to do it anyway” disclaimer.

              You are right about the arm bar swing sarcasm, however. It’s tiresome.

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            3. Have to agree with you there. Whether you want to admit it or not, these guys know a lot more about prospects than we do. What they say is pretty important, even if it is just one data point.

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          2. Well, being skeptical is healthy, but anyone who watches a lot of baseball is worth considering. Goldstein parlayed his job into the Astros Pro Scouting Coordinator- I sure miss his podcast. .

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        4. Ok, so he lacks the dedication or drive or whatever, like Chase Utley or Cody Asche, but he does have the hit tool.

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  5. What does it matter how they handle Galvis, his ceiling is a utility infielder. An organization shouldn’t waste time on guys like that, either they sink or they swim. There is no reason the phillies should worry about some marginal major leaguers psyche.

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    1. Agreed. Galvis continues to show what he is, a utility player with a great glove and limited offensive ability. He has shown more power than I expected but he’s still a .220ish hitter who doesn’t walk so he’s always going to .OPS too low to be a regular.

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    2. Who mentioned his pshyche? Although I more or less agree with his your projection for Galvis, he could be come more than that if he could improve his hitting. That may never happen but it is tough to find out if he isn’t getting ABs. To their credit, the Phillies seem to agree.

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  6. Franco was 0-4 last night, but 2 of the outs were long flies that just missed going over the wall. He’s still raking.

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  7. I see Cesar Hernandez getting his average back up whats his upside like do you guys think he will hit in the .300 in the MLB. maybe a Elvis Andrus type or no

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    1. I wonder if the coaches have been focusing on Cesar’s running game. He was 32/38 at Williamsport in 2010 but fell to 23/33 at Clearwater in 2011 and an ugly 21/36 between Reading and LV in 2012. This year he’s 26/32 (81%). While I’m not particularly excited about Cesar, that could change in a hurry if he develops into a 30-40 steal type of guy in the majors

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    2. I would think a ceiling of .280 is more likely. He could still be a decent player at that level.

      The Andrus comp is interesting but I don’t think a terribly helpful one. Obviously the positional difference is important. Also Andrus is a plus plus defender. I don’t see anyone saying that about Hernandez.

      But saying he isn’t Andrus isn’t saying he can’t be a decent major league regular. I am still somewhat of a skeptic, but I could be wrong. One practical problem is that I think people underestimate the gap between Utley and Hernandez, especially as hitters. In the short run, the offense would look pretty putrid without Utley. Of course if he is traded or doesn’t re-sign, then you don’t have much of a choice. I do think at this point Hernandez is more likely than Galvis to get the nod as the regular second baseman IF Utley is traded. I didn’t feel that way (and said as much) a few weeks ago.

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    3. A guy people pointed too earlier in the year as a comp was Altuve. Altuve has (predictably) cooled off a bit. But as comps go, it could be worse. Altuve is probably pretty much what you hope that Hernendez becomes. But he isn’t a star, his early season hot streak notwithstanding.

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      1. To me, Cesar Hernandez is what 2B used to look like before guys like Jeff Kent, dan Uggla and Chase Utley. They were guys who would hit 260 – 300, field their position very well, sometimes run a little bit, get the bunt down, and usually be guys that batted 2nd in the order. Utley has obviously spoiled us but Hernandez could be a solid 2B for years to come. We’ll badly need the power from somewhere else however while Asche won’t provide it either. Franco could in 2015 possibly. I still look for a Pap deal to the Tigers for one of their 2 outfielders to come and bat 3rd for us.

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        1. Nice assessment. I agree he is what 2B used to look like. Just finished watching the replay game of Phillies vs Cubs where each team scored over 20 runs. He would have been good starter at that time.

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          1. This year in AAA versus Altuve at the major league level, true. Prior to this season, not really.

            IF Hernandez can maintain his current AAA BB rate at the major league level, he IMO becomes a more intriguing prospect. Can he? No idea. One would at least like to see if he can maintain it all year in AAA.

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  8. Keith law has the phillies as his number 2 rising system this year nice to see some good news

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    1. Just read that as well. He really loved the 13′ draft class and will put the top 5-6 picks in the new top 10 prospects.

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      1. Awesome news. I really like Keith Law and expect him to have some good insight on Phillies now that he’s back on the east coast. I’m not an insider, but I know he loved our draft and I think he believes in Franco.

        I’d be interested to find out if he still is really down on Cozens. Also, I wonder what he thinks Green could amount to. He would probably say its too early, but the power is for real.

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        1. nothing on Cozens, but he didn’t show much love for Greene, stating that his only calling card was his power and he’s hit 3 Homeruns in over 530 minor league Plate appearances. Mitch Rupert had a really good conversation w/ Joe Jordan on Greene with Jordan stating Greene’s inability or unwillingness to come to camp in shape is completely setting him back. He came down pretty hard on Greene and basically said he’s got to make a commitment to nutrition and exercise in order to get the most out of his baseball skills. I’m assuming if he doesn’t get his s*it together, he wont last another year w/ the Phillies.

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          1. I believe when Dylan said Green he’s referring to Zack Green at Williamsport and not Larry Greene Jr at Lakewood.

            Granted he’s a level lower than LGJ, but he is showing massive power in Williamsport. 4HR’s, 7 2B’s, 1 3B in 59 PA’s. That’s a .347 ISO (not sustainable obviously) but significantly more power than LGJ has ever shown in minor league games to this point.

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            1. OH my bad haa..Plucked this from a KLAW chat
              Josh (Philly)

              Is Phillies prospect Zach Green a prospect to keep an eye on over the next year?
              Klaw (1:59 PM)

              Yes. Liked his swing a little in HS, didn’t perform great, was clearly not a SS at the next level. But yes, someone I’d keep an eye on.

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      2. Glass half-full view: Wow that 2013 draft was really good to have that many guys already in the top-10

        Glass half-empty view: Wow, how bad was a our farm system that the 2013 draft may have put 5-6 guys who have barely any minor league experience yet into the top-10.

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        1. Well I see both sides of that. Keith kept saying via twitter and in his writeups he loved the Phillies taking those guys because of their present level of baseball skills as opposed to taking guys w/ such raw tools that you could dream on w/ baseball skills. But there’s always usually a few guys from each draft that file into his rankings of every team. He just happened to like the Phillies draft more than any other NL team

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        2. Keep in mind that Law had Pettibone (graduates), Giles (injured), and LGJ (terrible) in his top-10 this year, so there are spots to be claimed.

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          1. and keep in mind that morgan suffered a rotator cuff injury, Joseph has been dealing with a combo of injuries and ineffectiveness and quinn has been struggling. really the system is rising because of a good draft and because Biddle and Franco look better meaning that we are looking like we’ll produce two impact players, whereas before this year he may have had us on zero impact players

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          2. @mratfink: Also good points, although for Law specifically I suspect he keeps Morgan top-10, given he had him tops preseason.
            I think people are overlooking Biddle’s year with Franco’s breakout. The walks are a problem, but he’s struck out more than a batter an inning while maintaining a decent (more than 2/1) K/BB in a very difficult hitting environment.

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      3. Part of that is backhanded though…our system was very poorly ranked for the most part (#27 in a lot of places) so while we had a good draft, we also still have a very thin system so those guys automatically get ranked high.

        KLaw is not a Phillies hater by any means (and its annoying that people sometimes throw that out there) so this is a good compliment at least.

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        1. I was wondering when someone would mention that Keith Law hates the Phillies!

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          1. I’m one of the few that almost always defends KLaw here…he most definitely does not hate the Phillies.

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  9. On a side note i am having a really hard time picturing what Cody Asche’s upside is like what he will bat in the MLB or how much power he has like home runs and doubles. a lot of the scouting reports i have read speak highly of him but the is no excitement about him and i was just wondering if i was missing something like a huge flaw in his game. i heard and read a few Chase Utley comps is that true.

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    1. The comp I think of is a LH Chris Johnson. Johnson is having a career year right now but his numbers are .283/.323/.436 over most of 4 seasons. Asche will be better defensively but that is where I see him, which would make him ~2 WAR a year at his peak if he is neutral defensively.

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      2. Pretty good comparison although I think Asche has better plate discipline. Higher BB% and lower K% so I think his BA and especially his OBP could be a bit better than Johnson’s.

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          1. in Lakewood: 10 IP 2H 0R 0BB 15K.
            Its not like he was bad in Clearwater either: 33 to 3 K/BB ratio.

            12 Walks in 172 career IP.

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        3. I think Lakewood’s a perfectly fine spot for him to stretch out as a starter for the remainder of the year. He’s only 19 I believe, so it’s not like he’s old for the league or anything. Still, if this is the type of stuff we can expect from him as a starter … Jesus.

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          2. Julio Rodriguez, 19, in Lakewood:

            56.1 IP, 32H, 22BBs, 90Ks.

            Video game numbers. NP. Gonzalez has the same profile. Fun box scores, though.

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            1. Oops! I was really completing the name started by Mike. It’s getting late. Good night.

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    2. Even if he is another J-Rod, I think it might make sense for him to go to Clearwater and send Ethan Stewart back to Lakewood.

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      1. I think Ethan stays for at least another outing after the gem he pitched this week. I think the Phillies still like Stewart.

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  12. Also … Cozens with a double and a HR tonight. For the folks who have been comparing his start this year to Larry Greene’s last year … 😉

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  13. The big club will have a much different lineup next year if Utley does not return. Hernandez gives you great speed and gap power. I see him batting the 2 hole next year behind Revere. D. Brown would certainly move up to the 3-Hole. Rollins is not adequate there. Not sure Manual would be brought back with a small ball lineup like that. You need a new manager to preach fundamentals to the new players.

    With Ruff floundering a little bit at AAA, I am starting to think that T. Gillies will be called up before him. Too early to call, but it could happen if Gillies catches on there.

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  14. JH: Gotta agree on the projected lineup. Also agree that Manuel needs to be replaced with Sandberg. For the #4 hole, we are STUCK with Howard…yet IMO one or more trades SHOULD bring back one or two righty outfielders along with some pitchers, one of those prospect outfielders could bat #5 or the re-signed Ruiz there w the OFer @ #6.

    RAJ’s record in choosing prospects in trades is pretty bad. He coulduse a LOT of help. Pray that he’s learned from his horrible mistakes. Yes, they need to trade Utley and should get back at least 2 superior prospects back….For M Young, possibly the same. For Lee: several.

    Love to see Revere lead off with Hernandez behind him,,,to base an offense on speed as well as some power. With lesser power, speed can fill that offensive gap.

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    1. It would leave Asche or Rollins in the 5-Hole. You can allow Asche to earn his way through the lineup from the 6-Hole. Just not sure Ruiz can stay healthy enough to keep him. I would like a split scenario with him and Rupp while Joseph proves his worth.

      At some point, Amaro needs to ask if the prospects on the trade table are ready for the majors and better than what we have currently in AA/AAA at SS, 2B, 3B, and LF (with D. Brown in RF). Otherwise, it is an addition by subtraction scenario. That worked incredibly well in 2006 and propelled the team into the playofffs in 2007.

      Who would the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Baltimore offer for the likes of Utley, M. Young and D. Young?

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  15. Watching last nights phillies game, was so brutal in one way, the lack of fundementals on this team. D. Young lazy stab at a easy fly ball, John Mayberry getting pickoff second base, was a disgrace. Dom Brown getting thrown out at third to lead off a innning. The thing that you could take out of the game imo was , Pettibone throws harder than I thought, Ryan is really trying, look at his effort on the foul ball he dove for, and the scoring from first. he gave it all he had, Utley is still a premier hustle guy and gives 100%, on every play, Dom Brown really works the pitcher,Charlie is the wrong manager for this team, 5 relief pitchers for 3 innings, joke. Bastardo still has no control and it kills him.That two strike pitch was awfull. De Fratus has good stuff.

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        1. too bad it’s in the box score recap since it has nothing at all to do with the minor league games.

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  16. Severino Gonzalez another prospect to watch? A virtual (what triple jump) to Clearwater from the V-league with tremendous success laat night. Any information ???

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    1. I find it funny that I have seen S. Gonzalez compared to J. Rodriguez or J. Biddle. Both those guys had/have control issues while Gonzalez seems to have elite control. Is there any way we can graft him and Martin together?

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      1. Here’s the trouble:

        Take a guy like Shane Watson. Great breaking ball, but the front office gave him explicit instruction not to use it. The results haven’t been there, but it’s still a mid-rotation profile.

        If the Phillies seriously saw Gonzalez as a prospect, they’d tell him the exact same thing. “Focus on your weak offerings.” Instead, he no hits a bunch of A-ballers with his secondary stuff.

        So maybe the J-Rod comparison was unfair. Would you prefer Tyler Cloyd? It’s just not a high-ceiling arm, and IMO not worth getting excited about until we see him against upper-level hitters.

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        1. How about Elizardo Ramirez? He had a 73/2 K/BB rate in 73 innings in GCL as a 19-year-old and didn’t really hit a wall until AA. They’re both smallish (six-foot). I remember Conlin hyping him up for a time when he was tearing up the lower levels. I don’t remember what Ramirez threw … anybody?

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          1. I don’t remember what he threw but I am willing to bet he had a very good/borderline elite breaking ball like Servino. You can easily over value those types of pitchers in the low minors because there are so few hitters that can hit elite offspeed stuff.

            Some, if not a lot, of Gonzalez’s success is probably due to that fact. However, he doesn’t strike me as a one trick pony. He clearly has excellant control. He probably also has very good command considering how few hits he gives up. I would be curious to know if his fast ball moves, whether he just locates it very well, or wther guys don’t hit it becuase they are forced to sit on the curve. If he has, or can develop, at least an average fastbal, he will still need to develop an average to aboveraverage 3rd pitch (likely a change up) to be a good prospect as a starter. If he keeps pitching like this, we will start getting far more reports on him to answer some of these questions

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    2. The only info I have is what has been posted here the past few weeks:

      -he was dominant in the VSL last year
      -the club brought him over for extended spring training and planed to keep him there and have him pitch in the GCL or at Williamsport
      -due to BP injuries at CLW, they sent him there to pirch a few innings. He dominated so they kept him there.
      -they want to try him as a starter so they sent him to LWD
      -absolutely wicked curveball, average FB in terms of speed, pinpoint location and command.
      -very slight build and will need to bulk up
      -he has apparently caught the Phillies brass, and pretty much everyone else, by surprise

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      2. I really hope that he can bulk up/his body can take the innings to be a starter. Note he did throw a lot of innings (92.2) last year in VSL I could see him being compared to Maddox, every soft tossing righty with command is. But people forget that Maddox in the minors and when he came up had a plus fastball (low 90’s touching 94) and didn’t have great control .

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        1. There should be a Godwin’s law for prospect discussions. Anytime anyone brings up Maddux when talking about soft tossers and their potential outcomes, they automatically get a 10 minute comment banishment.

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    1. He throws four pitches. See below:

      The strikeout-to-walk ratio left one major league scout nearly speechless. “Other than impressive I don’t know what to say,’’ he said. “Make up a word.’’

      Speaking through a translator (Carmona), Gonzalez said he felt amazing Tuesday.

      “I felt I was throwing a strike whenever I wanted,’’ Gonzalez said. “My curveball, fastball, cutter, changeup was working. Everything went well.’’

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