As we pass the calenderic mid-point of the year, (calenderic?), I would like to offer my thoughts on the Phillies as a jumping off point for this week’s discussion:
1. Ugh
2. Delmon Young has a pretty decent arm, and he’s been on a couple decent streaks, (Miami earlier this year and now the recent West Coast swing). It has cost the team PAs for no one I am worried about getting PAs, (unless you really like Mayberry or want Ruf in LF and Brown back in right), and there was nothing really attractive on the OF market except Swisher who would have cost a draft pick, (which doesn’t thrill me), and the signing was not even the worst signing this off-season, (Durbin), and as such: Delmon Young on an incentive-laden 1-year deal has not turned out to be the worst signing ever. High praise, right?
3. I like Dom Brown and I always have. I briefly liked Michael Taylor better, but that didn’t last and was based on some faulty proximity argument that I no longer think makes much sense.
4. Chase Utley is still good and his health isn’t as big a concern if he can keep his knees working. The oblique was the first non-contact injury I can recall him ever having that wasn’t realted to his chronic knee issue, and if I’m a contending team right now, I might just overpay for Utley. Not by a lot. We’re not landing 2 top 50-type guys or anything, but a mildly substantial (mildly substantial?) overpay I could see.
5. Ugh, again, I guess.
6. JC Ramirez struck out the side in his first big league inning. I’m excited for him, if not all that much about him.
7. Wheels < Sarge < TMac < Murph
Ok, discuss.
Phuture Phillies 
RE: 7.
LA?
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Yeah, LA and Franske are the better Phillies experience, but I watch on a set top box with MLB.tv and switching on a separate device to get the radio feed won’t sync for me.
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TMac is the worst of the worst.
I would LOVE to have 3 minutes with TMac and have a catch with him. I’m willing to bet seeing TMac throw a baseball is very similar to the car commercial where the dad who can’t throw is trying to teach his son who can’t throw, how to throw a baseball. TMac knows less baseball than my 9 year old.
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I know that it is in hindsight, but I never really understood why they decided to let Schierholtz walk. He is only making 2.5 mil this year and has an .872 OPS. I get that they wanted a RH bat but Id prefer him over Young, Mayberry, and Nix. If only RAJ wouldn’t have given Nix that ridiculous 2yr contract, we could have kept him.
I have no problem with the Dyoung signing, it was very low risk and he has been atleast mediocre thus far. But I mean, DYoung had a sub .300 obp last year and barely above it 2 years ago. Its not just a case of bad luck that makes the Phillies strand so many runners, the FO assembled a lineup full of hitters with no plate discipline that don’t get on base.
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I have a problem with the D. Young signing because they are paying money to a player who is not as good as a replacement player and, worse yet, everyone with half a brain knew he would not be as good as a replacement player. A Nix/Mayberry platoon would have been better and if it started tomorrow, would be better. One of the biggest reasons the Phillies stink is that they cannot properly evaluate current performance of their position players. That’s a huge, huge problem.
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Catch, like me, you will still buy your tixs for the ballpark. However, meet me outside Monty’s office in the HoF, and we will storm the Bastille!
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I have plenty of problems with the Dyoung playing, just not really that upset about the signing. I guess I was kind of thinking he was a bench bat/Interleague DH, never thought they were planning on making him the every day starter…silly me.
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Let me say something about Utley apart from the question of how much we could get for him in the trade market. (Though FWIW this marginally cuts against my argument about his trade value, but in favor of my argument that they should try to re-sign him).
On a per game basis so far this year, he is essentially the same player he was EVEN AT HIS PEAK. Hitting is superficially down, but not in league context. Relative to league, he is right where he was at his peak.. He is 38% better right now than an average major league player as a hitter so far this year. If he sustains that, it will be the third best mark of his career.
Advanced stats show his base running and defense down a little, but still better than average in both cases.
All the usual caveats about WAR apply, but his WAR this year projected over 150 games is 6.9. Compare that to a 7.5 rate for his 5 year peak. Not much of a fall off.
Yes, SSS and of course he DID miss a month and you need to take that into account. Still, when healthy, he remains one of the very best second basemen in the game.
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Thank you – I noticed that this morning too. He’s not the same player going forward because he can’t play as many games per year and because he’s still on the downside of the aging curve, but Chase Utley is a great, great, great player. If they want to contend next year and in 2015, I can see no valid reason why you would not want Utley on that team. Also, even if he only plays about 120-130 games a year, he should be a great bargain because: (a) he is on the downside of his career; (b) he has the nagging injury thing hanging over him; and (c) second basemen, as a group, are underpaid (I’m not sure why, but it’s true, the really good ones are definitely underpaid). I think the Phils should be able to lock up Utley on a 2-3 year deal at around $12-13 million and might even be able to get an easy-to-meet third year vesting option. It is likely to be a great deal for the team even if Utley only plays 100 games a year. Oh yeah, did I mention he’s the face of the franchise too? The point in baseball, if you want to contend, is to acquire and retain these players, not trade them.
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$12-13 million per year, that is.
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Yeah, we agree obviously. Also factoring in:
(1) Given the current state of the payroll and the FA market, that kind of salary for Utley is not going to seriously constrain other moves.
(2) I tend to be somewhat optimistic about the knees. I’d say there is plenty of circumstantial evidence that there was a real issue with his off season program which has been fixed.
(3) The easily vesting third year is particularly appropriate for a guy like Utley who is likely to be good if he plays – so the risk of a healthy but drastically declining player whose contract vests despite the decline is low.
And if he wants to play for a contender or someone overpays for his decline years? They still get a sandwich pick. AND I think the damage in terms of the fan base would be less if he walked as opposed to being traded.
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Plus if you sign Utley when he is hurt you have Hernandez and Galvis to fill in. Both are “Nice” players but neither is a player you have to get rid of current MLB players for. Especially since they do not want to give the impression of throwing in next year.
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One thing I have noticed about Utley over the last couple years is that he loses his power after about a month of playing regularly. It will be interesting to watch over the next couple of weeks if it happens again. Not sure the reason but it could factor into the decision about keeping him going forward.
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+1
I thought I noticed the same thing. He seems to lose his pop over a few weeks instead of months when he was at his peak.
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“(1) Given the current state of the payroll and the FA market, that kind of salary for Utley is not going to seriously constrain other moves.”
If the Phillies paid Utley $25 million a year it wouldn’t “constrain” them. The only thing “constraining” the Phillies is the disgusting greed of their owners like John $. Middleton and his Wharton Business School bloodsucker David Montgomery.
The Choo-Choo Train is a HUGE upgrade in CF over Ben Revere. The Phillies could pay Utley $40 million per year and have plenty for the Choo-Choo Train.
Choo ids represented by Scott Boras though and the Phillies are in the middle of a Thirty Years War against Boras. The Phillies refuse to sign a Boras client. They refuse to draft a Boras client. David Montgomery continues to breath air only for the purpose of driving Scott Boras out of MLB.
While the Phillies hitting has been in a five year long dive to the bottom the pitching has now declined as well. Cuban mound sensation Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez is now available. Are the Phillies going to throw the money? They have the money to throw. They have the money to throw at three or four Cubans. Are they going to do so?
After fighting Scott Boras, David Montgomery’s next great love is fighting open bids for international talent. He wants the Cubans, Koreans and Japanese players thrown into a slotted slave money draft.
The Phillies payroll is $70 million south of the Yankees and $60 million south of the Dodgers. I don’t see anything anywhere about the Yankees and Dodgers selling.
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Your so wrong about middleton. he is the one owner who wants to spend. ever report that I ever read about him. tells us he wants to win and would pay the money to get the ring.
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All of the Phillies owners, with the exception of Giles when he was lamely being his own GM, have happily said they were willing, nay eager, to spend whatever was necessary to build a winning team. Monty just this past winter declared how he and his fellow owners would happily blow through the lux cap repeatedly in order to field a winner. This is the standard owner PR. They then tell the GM how much he is allowed to spend on the draft, international, and MLB player salary fronts. The GM takes the hit. It never ceases to amaze me. I actually see fans writing with incredulity, word to the effect of ‘how can RAJ be so cheap, when the owners seem more than willing to blast through the salary cap?’ That’s a tough one to figure out. RAJ may just be the only person in the world who refuses to spend other peoples money, while those other people are begging him to spend more of it. It’s a real puzzler.
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Conclusion — we have no idea how much money Middleton really wants to spend. The guys he encounters in the community probably treat him better when he keeps talking about wanting to spend more. Doesn’t make his fellow owners look that good though, does it? For all we know, Middleton spends all his time at the team’s Fall meeting griping about how much the team spends and how tiny a draw he gets from his big investment in the team. We know for sure that a majority of owners’ voting power consistently pushes for an array of spending caps. None of the owners have seen fit to raise their hand and state that they are the one leading the parade to hold down spending. I don’t object to setting the lux cap as the major league salary budget. That should be adequate for winning. The caps on amateur bonuses have been absurd. Of course, that’s the past, but it’s also why we happen to be standing in the hole we are now standing in, so it’s far from irrelevant.
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We also know from some past interviews that some of the owners care not a whit about baseball. Not that they are disinterested in winning baseball beyond the family baseball experience, they don’t care about that either.
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Choo choo doesn’t hit lefties…sound familiar ? Let’s see, 15 million per yr for yet another player who can’t hit left handers. Do your homework. Boras would want a 5 year deal at least.
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This year, Utley would be third among 2nd basement in OPS (tied with Canu) idf he had enough to ABs. Trading him makes no sense. He should be resigned as soon as humanly possible.
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I just cannot see the Phillies getting rid of Utley. When you think of the Phillies, who do you think of? Chase Utley is the #1 guy.
His value to the franchise – regardless of what he does on the field – is immense. If you think of the Yankees – you think Jeter. If you think of the Phillies – you think Utley. The reality is that he is still playing at a high-level – when healthy. You will certainly get teams that will inquire about what it would take to get him. However, given the value that he brings to the team (from a marketing / perception perspective), I just cannot fathom an offer that would come close to making the Phillies be willing to part with him (again, from a business perspective).
Give the team a few more weeks. As you approach the deadline, look to make moves (this assumes that the team does not go 14-3 in the next few weeks – which is a very safe bet). I would like to push M. Young – give Asche a chance, and give Frandsen a few more AB. You probably will not get much in return for Young – but he is gone at the end of the year anyways.
Shop Paps – we can finish with a mediocre record with or without him. I personally do not value ‘elite’ closers. I would prefer 1 elite prospect, and a mid-range prospect (even if it means throwing in some $$)
I would be open to shopping Rollins – but I still like him as a SS – so would not push too hard to get rid of him.
Brown has been a great surprise. How many of us in February saw 20+ HR’s at the break for him. I think more of us would have guessed he would have been platooning by this time than having 20+ HR’s. Let’s see if he can keep this up – the league has taken notice and I presume has made adjustments – can Brown make adjustments as well.
In the second half – I also see much competition in the bullpen. I think most of the pen is pitching for a job next year. (as an aside – did anyone see the Pirates box score from yesterday. they had 6 relief pitchers throw – the highest ERA amongst them was 3.57 – everyone else was sub-3).
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Agreed. He’s not blocking an everyday player and even if he only plays 120 games a year, I think 120 games of Utley is better than 150 of his replacement. That and I’m not sure we’d get anything close to his worth in a trade. And can anyone really imagine him in another uniform? I realize we have a few players like that (Rollins, Howard, Ruiz as well) but Utley is a little different.
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I don’t know if I read it here or on another site but somebody made a great comparison to Chipper Jones in Atlanta. You keep him with the expectation that he is going to play ~100 games a year and is still the face of the franchise that keeps people coming to the ballpark. All you need is a somewhat decent backup (Frandsen, Asche maybe) who can fill in when Utleys on the DL. Not sure what Larry’s contract was in Atlanta but I’m sure it was manageable. I think that’s the template the Phils should consider with Utley.
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Schierholtz is the same issue. Nix’s contract was not what kept them from keeping Schierholtz – they had plenty of money for both players and Schierholtz either could have started or could have been in a partial platoon with Mayberry. The problem is that Ruben Amaro believes that Delmon Young is a better player than Schierholtz. I don’t know how you fix stupidity.
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I hear you catch. I recall thinking that Schierholtz was likely to be let go. He was arbitration eligible after making $1.3 mil with the Giants in 2012 and even more influential was the fact that he was injured for most of his time with the Phils. RAJ seemed confused by the OF situation or at the very least, he didn’t seem to have much of a plan. While Schierholtz looks like a lost opportunity today, this is one that I don’t blame RAJ for. It’s a shame we didn’t get a better look at him last year. The RF job was his for the last 2 months – he just couldn’t stay on the field
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RAJ stated that they thought they would have to many left handed outfielders if they kept Schierholtz.
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Right. Yet another factor
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And that stupidity is not going away . How can we have a bright future such management.
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I have a problem with your reasoning as Mayberry/Nix did not produce last year so what makes you think they would this year. Lastly, try to keep your emotions in check as when you use “one of the biggest reasons the Phillies stink” it takes away from your post. I get you don’t like the Delmon Young signing but there are no AAA players ready for the majors to play in the outfield.
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Well, it really, truly is one of the biggest reasons the Phillies stink, but as to your other points – Nix and Mayberry have very strong platoon splits and both are good fielders. It is a virtual certainty that platooning these players would produce a statistically superior outcome both on offense and defense. So, basically, if you platooned them, you would end up with a 1.5-3.0 WAR outfielder compared with a -1 WAR outfielder – it’s not a small difference. And, by the way, since last year, Kevin Frandsen has been a better player than Michael Young and Michael Young has not been horrible this year – he’s been okay. But Frandsen is better.
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As I stated earlier they did not produce last year as if they did there would have been no need to sign Delmon Young.
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You’re not answering his argument.
Their “lack of production” was partially a (mis)perception of the organization, mostly because they lacked the imagination to consider a platoon. I’m a little less optimistic than Catch as to how good that platoon would have been, but even the low end of his estimate is a couple of wins better than Satan Young.
But even assuming the need for a different option, there were plenty of better options that D. Young, who has been even worse than I thought he would be. It is unbelievable to me that anyone can look at that failure – I checked, his picture in in the dictionary next to word “failure” – and argue that the signing was anything else than a ludicrous, embarrassing mistake.
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But at least, he is no longer ‘Satan’.
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Larry, I will answer your point as last year(2012) John Mayberry had 8 homers, 19 rbis and a .271 average against LH pitching. Lance Nix had 2 homers, 14 rbis and a .248 average against RH pitching. Combined this comes out to 10 homers, 33 rbis and an average around .260. This year(2013) Delmon Young in 50 games has 7 homers, 25 rbis and a .256 average which projects to 21 homers, 75 rbis and an average closer to his career .277 average. Clearly, Delmon Young will likely outperform the platoon numbers from Mayberry/Nix from 2012 and you can always have Mayberry or Nix come in as a defensive replacement.
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I’d add that I can definitely see that the Nix side of the platoon was uninspiring – but D. Young was hardly the answer to THAT problem. Schierholtz arguably was, though I concede that some of that is hindsight.
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I don’t get your point. Mayberry outproduced Young last year and greatly outproduced him in 2011, so if we are going by 2012 production, then Young is worse than Mayberry or Schierholtz. He also is the worst fielder and runner of that trio.
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Allentown, your point about John Mayberry outproducing Delmon Young is simply not true. In 2012 Delmon Young was clearly superior offensively and about even in 2011 to Mayberry. There is no question about who is better in the field but the conversation was about offensive production. I know Delmon Young is not liked here but please try to somewhat objective. If you don’t believe me just check the full statistics of both players.
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Hey Larry it could be worse. Instead of Dyoungs slash 256/311/433 and miniscule one year salary, we could have this guy- 235/340/398 and 11 mil salary oh AND minus our draft pick..ill let you guess who that is..you should be familiar
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I would really love to hear an explanation of how Young’s .267/.296/.411 line from 2012 is “clearly superior” to Mayberry’s .245/.301/.395 line. I’d also like to hear an attempt to justify your claim that Young’s 2011 .268/.302/.393 offensive output is “about even” to Mayberry’s .273/.341/.513.
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okay …. as a platoon player, Mayberry was in 2012 MUCH better than Young. Not even close, no room to argue whatever evaluation method you use.
Now, Mayberry has a huge platoon split, larger than Young’s, so the overall numbers are closer. I can see how someone could conclude that Young was better in 2012 in hitting overall (even you realize Mayberry passes him when you throw in defense). But he wasn’t. It was close, with IMO a slight edge to Mayberry. Let’s break it down:
BA – edge to Young but not a huge one. .267 to .245.
BB rate – edge to Mayberry, a big one.7.1% to 3.3
Power – slight edge to Mayberry, .150 to .145.
I know you’re going to bring up RBIs. You know how little weight I put on them, but even that aside, much of Young’s edge there is simply a matter of more playing time, 133 more ABs.
In 2011 it isn’t remotely close, Mayberry was a much better hitter.
On a career basis, Mayberry has been a significantly better hitter, 5% above league average versus 3% below league average.
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The one stat i would love to see is risp, I think mayberry is terrible with risp, dont know his numbers or youngs, but would purley on a guess, say young is better, but they both stink as starting outfielder, mayberry is okay as a fillin 4 th outfielder,
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Howard’s .599 OPS against left-handers from 2011-13 is 221st out of 232 hitters with 250 plate appearances against lefties in that span.
Kind of makes me nostalgic for the good ole Travis Lee / Rico Brogna days.
What would it take for Howard to become not a platoon player (as I just don’t see this happening at this point), but a guy who gets 2 days off per week (say with Mayberry or Ruf getting some of his AB’s).
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Time for basbeall to think ‘amnesty’, as some other professional sports have.
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No salary cap so you can just “amnesty” anyone by buying out the rest of their contract (same as how amnesty works in other sports)
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Matt you think the phillies would eat 85 million for howard, When they wont take a chance on a latin player, who makes over a million. I think they would keep howard if they couldnt trade him, no way they would buy him out for full value. Hate to see amnesty .its would make the yankees and boston, and dodgers much stronger.
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Amnesty has nothing to do with eating a salary. You still have to eat the salary. To the original question, all it takes to platoon Howard is a manager who is willing to do it. Really, this is on Cholly, he doesn’t like platoons. Howard earns the same salary when lefties pitch if he sits on the bench and comes in as a PH against a RHRP, while a guy who actually can hit lefties plays 1B as he does when he plays against LHP and stinks. The RH bat then sits on the bench while Howard stinks against the LHP, then when the other team brings in a RHRP you have the RH bat on the bench waiting to PH, rather than Howard. By not platooning Howard you save not a penny of his huge salary and hurt yourself on the field all the way around. It is what I refer to as Manuel’s stubbornness at not putting his best possible team on the field.
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Well if we did what you said, ruf against lefthanders and howard against right handers, not adding much salary, and might work, screw charlie he is gone after this year.
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Why the love for Ruf. He has a .752 OPS in AAA (.774 vs LHP). Howard should be platooned with Frandsen.
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I don’t think it is love for Ruf so much as .774>.599. I think people would like to see Frandsen platooned with Asche at 3B (with Young bringing back a bag of balls.)..
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matt find out what is happening with the unsign draft choices please
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Do you know what Delmon Young’s DWar has been this year? -1.1, dragging his overall bWAR down to -0.7. He’s been awful on the bases and in the field. The man is one of the slowest players in the league and hadn’t played RF since 2007. He was a terrible signing because despite the fact he has a decent arm, he’s a DH forced to play right field as a sick joke by Amaro.
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Yeah, he’s a hot mess on the field and he has no place starting for a big league club. The contract, all thing considered, however, could be worse. I don’t know of maybe my point was obscured here. I was literally attempting to say the signing had proven to be a bit better than I believed it would be when it was signed. “Not the worst” was meant to mean, “In a list of the 4-6 bad Amaro moves this year, DYoung surprisingly hadn’t turned out to be the worst”.
The best? Toss up between Yuni, (as he never saw the 25-man roster), and MYoung, though Revere can play his way to better than MYoung if he (and the trade pieces that went the other way in either deal), pan out in the Phils’ favor.
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Brad – I actually shared the same opinion when I saw the $750k base. It was only after reading about the “performance” bonuses tied to his weight that I threw my hands up in the air. I also never dreamed that he would receive as much playing time as he has
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Re-reading my comment, I was a little harsh, so sorry, but I really hate D. Young. I also am just staggered by the fact that they wanted him as the starting right fielder. WTF? Had they brought him up as a bench bat, admitting that he couldn’t play RF anymore, and he hit like he has, I’d be forced to acknowledge that the signing wasn’t bad. But he’s hurting the team out there in the field.
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Utley’s “value to the team” is getting us a young stud that’s ready to help the team for the NEXT decade… If people can’t see that and won’t watch anymore if he’s traded then they aren’t real fans.
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If people can’t see that the chance that Utley gets us a young stud is zero, then they aren’t real fans.
Look, if the Phillies really could trade Utley for a top 25 in baseball prospect, the fans would forgive them. They can’t. There’s an outside chance that a 50 to 100 prospect might be possible -if someone overpays for him – but you usually don’t get “young studs” in that range. I probably wouldn’t do the deal for that type of prospect, though I can see the logic of doing so.
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“If people can’t see that the chance that Utley gets us a young stud is zero, then they aren’t real fans.”
Aren’t real fans? Huh? Is that a serious comment? Hope you’re being facetious
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See the comment that I was responding to – it wasn’t “facetious,” exactly, but it wasn’t serious, it was a take off on HIS comment about “real fans.”
To be clear, it’s certainly possible to be a real fan and have a fantasy about Utley’s trade value. It doesn’t make those fantasies true though. As I implied, the real debate about Utley is (a) whether it is possible that some team will overpay by giving us a decent but not great prospect (either a fringe major league ready player, or a player further away who has a small shot at being an impact player), and (b) if so, whether you make that deal.
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I would trade utley for nothing, He deserves to go to a winning organization to finish his career, if possible, give him a chance to win a championship, the way he plays he wont imo play more than 3 more years at best. Now a days most guys dont play there whole career with same team. like dawkins. mc nabb, carlton, but come back with one day to retire. I love chase and want him away from this three ring circus, run by amaro and montgomery.
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No, we are not in a position to become sentimental and just basically give Utley his release, because that is what he wants. If he has value to another team, then it is RAJs job to extract that value in the form of a prospect, not to get Chase to his preferred destination for free.
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If you think the current organization is a three ring circus, what exactly would be trading Utley for nothing be? Barnum and Bailey’s?
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kind of like a martin for victorino or joseph for pence type deal? is that what you mean, or is that too little.
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I think Chase would bring a little more than that. Heck, both Pence and Vic brought a little more than that and both of them were having a pretty awful season when they were traded. Pence doesn’t even play a primo position. I think if he stays healthy for the next few weeks, that Chase is worth more than either of those guys.
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I think he gets them more than they got for Vic.
The Pence comparison is interesting. On the one hand Utley is a lot better. OTOH, Pence was not a pure rental. That additional year of control – and possible draft pick if you lose him – makes a difference.
Factor in also the identity of the teams which may be in the running for him, and I think that type of return is about what they would be looking at. Which, despite Joseph’s lost year, is not a horrible return. He might still be a major league regular. But I don’t think many people here, and even proportionately fewer among all Phillies fans, would be terribly thrilled by such a return.
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Not a young stud, probably, but a very legit prospect. Utley will have a lot of value to a contender. No worries about health or long-term $ and they get a good fielding power bat for the stretch plus a chance to audition Utley and see if they want to sign him next year. A team which would want to sign him next year has just turned him into a guy who doesn’t require draft comp to a guy who might require it. Really, what the Phillies should do with Utley comes down to what his demands are to resign and what other teams will offer for him. If he wants to much to re-sign, or if he seems to want to leave the team for a contender next season, then you have to trade him. If you get blown away with by an offer, you have to trade him anyway. RAJ should have already started negotiations on a new 1-2 year contract with Chase and should know the lay of the land.
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Chase may choose a trade and want to go close to his off-season home, in San Francisco.
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I have a funny feeling, purely speculation I might add, that Chase is not as married to the ‘Phillie for life’ concept as RAJ may be, or at least as RAJ is leading the public to believe. There’s no doubt we get value in return if he’s traded, considerable value. And this is a theory that is unlikely to be disproved since the front office would have to had completely lost their collective minds to trade him for anything considerably more valuable than the value of a comp pick. If he’s back with the Phils next season on a Q.O. – then great. But I find it hard to believe that he would accept a Q.O. in the first place.
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A lot of the core are giving subtle and not so subtle hints that they are not all that set on staying with this particular sinking ship. These are guys who got used to winning as part of the Phillies last core or joined the Phillies to hunt for multiple WS appearances. Last season and this season have been a rude awakening. Lee, Paps, and Rollins have each made comments that are a little ‘off’ if you had assumed they have a burning desire to stay with this team, because they expect it to win this year or next.
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‘Last season and this season have been a rude awakening. Lee, Paps, and Rollins have each made comments that are a little ‘off’ if you had assumed they have a burning desire to stay with this team’….I hope you don’t mean what Jimmy said yesterday after the game….’losing three out four is not a big deal’. That shows patience! (tic)
JRoll needs to go before Uts.
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Okay, I don’t agree with all of this, but if you want to argue for the possibility of trading him this is the kind of argument you need to make..
One reason I have my doubts about getting a “very legit” prospect” for him is that the teams which would seem to be the best fit for him are teams that have not historically traded “legit prospects” for rentals. Whether that’s because their front offices are smart or some other reason, it seems to be the case. I also think that every year the market for rentals is going to get worse.
At the end of the day, what does the team do if it gets a decent but not great offer for him, and isn’t sure one way or the other whether it can sign him? I say they keep him, hope to sign him but takes the sandwich pick otherwise and avoid fan backlash. Given that we agree that they aren’t getting “a young stud,” I certainly would not fault them for that.
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Larry, what are the contending teams that need a second baseman? I read an article that mentioned Kansas City, but I can’t see them jumping in for a rental because though improving, this really isn’t there year. Baltimore maybe. Oakland?
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I consider a top 50 MLB prospect a “young stud” .. Sorry if you thought I meant that they were going to get Puig or Stanton for Utley, clearly he won’t fetch that.. So I think that trading Utley for a top 50 prospect is a slam dunk, no brainer.. Do it. He isn’t coming back here, he wants to win as much as anyone in baseball and he is smart enough to know that this phillies team is on the slide down to re-building. So if, like I do, the phillies think he signs elsewhere after this season, then they should move him for that prospect.. I think fans don’t look at the big picture enough. They want Utley to stay because they like him, he’s a career phillie, etc… Well he’s my favorite player but I want them to be a World Series winning team, and the way to do that starts with moving guys that you can get good value for.
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I don’t think the disagreement between the two camps is whether you trade Utley if he brings back a top 50 prospect. The disagreement is whether Utley brings back a top 50 prospect..
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If the Dodgers are willing to trade Joc Pederson for Utley you do it. And I have to think the Dodgers would do that. They want to win right now.
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I think almost everyone (maybe everyone?) of the trade Utley skeptics would do that deal. We just don’t think the Dodgers will do it.
I promised a comment elaborating on this. This isn’t so much about that particular deal, or even just about Utley, but more about why I & many other on this site don’t think our veterans (except maybe Lee and Papelbon) have much trade value.
An average regular – and Pederson is projected to be that, though for me just looking at age/level/performance that seems conservative – will generate about 12 WAR over the course of his pre FA years. Sure, no prospect is a sure thing, but he is close, in AA, and weighing against the risk of failure is the chance he could be better than average. So 12 WAR is fair.
Utley, if he stays healthy and productive, will generate about 3 WAR over the course of the rest of the season. Given health risks and the risk that his performance declines a little (reasonable risks for a player his age) let’s say 2 WAR. That’s still well above average for a half year, borderline star level.
So that’s a 4 to 1 or 6 to 1 ratio in expected value. Now, you say that isn’t the relevant calculation, that it’s about “winning now,” championships are forever, etc. And there is SOME truth to that. But:
(a) The Dodgers are currently below .500 (their record is actually a tiny bit worse than the Phillies) and in the race only because they are in a crap division. Hardly a team that should be in win now mode.
(b) How much does Utley increase their chances? 2%? Maybe.
(c) How much do you pay for that slight increased chance for a a championship? You pay a premium, but just how much? Twelve WAR (expected) versus 2 or 3 WAR (expected)? I wouldn’t, nor would most front offices.
Now, countering that are a few past examples of such lopsided trades being made. So it’s not entirely beyond the bounds of the possible. But IMO unlikely in the extreme. And IF you take Kasten at his word, the Dodgers won’t do it (presumably having learned something from last year’s disastrous trade with Boston).
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Somewhere around a top 50 guy, if its a guy our scouts like, is fine. That’s like getting another Biddle or Franco, depending upon whose ranking you look at.
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I would not trade Utley. I would try to re-sign him to a 2 year deal, and if you can’t come to an agreement, offer him the one year deal and if he leaves you get a draft pick hopefully and if he accepts it he is back for another year.
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I tend to agree with this, particularly if a reasonable deal can be reached. The reasons are two-fold:
I still really like Utley, and he is still productive when healthy.
The projected trade return for Utley doesn’t seem that good.
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Projected by whom exactly? The market hasn’t even established itself yet
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Jeff Francouer is now available and he can play a good RF.
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No lets not
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I’m assuming he wants to collect all of the worst players in the game, an idiosyncratic project but an interesting one. But we ruined that by releasing Betancourt in the spring.
And you know what? He would be an upgrade on D. Young.
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Can someone tell me what Swishers numbers are this year, i dont know all these fancy metrics and such. I remember someone wanted to give up a pick and a bazillion dollars for him but cant remember who.
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If he could play it that well he wouldn’t be available.
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Chase can block a trade to 15 teams I believe. Not sure how this works, if the teams are agreed on before the season start or not.
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I just double checked and its 21 teams. I don’t think it should be a problem since he will be a free agent next year, just something worth noting.
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Isn’t he also a 10/5 guy, meaning he can block any trade? If he is not there yet, he must be very close.
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I don’t think he gets there until August Wes. Late August, but well after the deadline nonetheless
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Hewitt with another Homer tonight…
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Logan Pierce (15rd out of Troy) having a solid start to his pro career. SSS notwithstanding, he hasn’t struck out in 10 games spanning more than 30 ABs. 4BB and 4Ks on the season covering 46 PAs (<9%). Now, he's a college kid playing against much much younger competition so nothing to get excited about. Someone I wouldn't mind seeing at Clearwater though
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I don’t know a whole lot about prospects in general, that is why I am turning here. What players could realistically come over in deals for Young, Utley, Rollins, Lee, Papelbon, and Ruiz? I see all of these proposals, but I don’t know what ones to look into… Any ideas?
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Oh my lord Earl – you just opened Pandora’s Box
😉
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Sorry! Just a fan of the big league club, not much knowledge on the farm system.
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Just teasing. There’s quite the variance in opinion as to what the Phils could stand to receive in terms of prospects. There’s so many possibilities and so much can change in the next thirty days both with the Phils as well as with potential trade partners. Quite the dynamic there.
Among friends we have had better dialogue discussing who might be traded without necessarily getting into too much detail as to who the Phils might stand to get in return. I think many would agree that Michael Young is at or near the top of the list of candidates likely to be traded. A name I’ve continued to mention to friends that doesn’t get a whole lot of press is Antonio Bastardo. I think he’s gone. Third on my list is Utley. If Ruiz starts hitting he could be a fast riser as well but right now it’s the three I mentioned that I feel are near certainties to be traded.
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Earl – here’s one for you. Dodgers are reported to have interest in Utley. If they keep winning we’ll have a perfect example of a team who would be willing to overpay for a high profile player like Utley. Joc Pederson would be a nice return (no, I don’t want Z.Lee) and I would love to get Van Slyke as well. Completely reasonable and here would be a situation where Utley’s veto rights would actually work in our favor
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Nice MidSeason writeup.
I am still upset by how bad the bullpen has been. I was a big fan of paying for a proven 8th inning guy and I was happy enough with Adams. I figured Bastardo and DeFratus would be the 7th inning guys. If something happened each guy could move up a rung and maybe Aumont/Diekman filled in behind.
But all these young arms with promise are STILL terrible. Even DeFratus who I thought would be the most consistent and a good setup guy has blown a few games. I know bullpens are supposed to be cheap and fickle and easy to build (look at the Cardinals nearly every year) but the Phillies since the World Series win have just deteriorated.
I am all for trading Papelbon if it gets a stud prospect but does anyone want to give Aumont the closer job, with Bartardo the setup and DeFratus the other setup guy? I think both Lee and Hamels would mutiny.
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Agree on all points PP. Still, part of me wonders if Paps is more valuable with less bullpen pieces around him or less valuable. After all, we’re not going to the post season with a bull pen ERA that sits in the bottom third of all of baseball (or 28th for that matter) with or without Paps. I guess we’ll see what is available in the form of closer as we near the deadline. If the Twins make Perkins available I suspect Papelbon will stay put
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HUNTER PENCE
Sold at the deadline.
How’d that work out?
Tommy Joseph can’t hit his way out of a paper sack in rookie ball. The Phillies just drafted two catchers because they realize they got nothing for Pence.
Every player traded for Cliff Lee sucks balls. Lee has been traded three times. Every team that traded for Lee got top performance. Every team that traded Cliff Lee got nothing in return.
Trading for Cliff Lee is a great idea. Trading Cliff Lee for prospects is a proven failure, a three time loser.
Last year was the worst year of Hunter Pence’s career, posting an OPS+ of 90. This year Pence is on target for the second best year of his career with a chance to reach a new high. Pence’s current OPS+ is 134.
Sellers are losers.
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Don’t give up on Joseph just yet. He’s 21 (turns 22 in a few weeks). He could sit at AAA for two more years and still be a prospect. I’m particularly excited about Rosin. I think he could be a back-of-the-rotation guy.
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Trading for Pence the first time was the mistake. Not trading him the second.
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Me, I’ve reached the realization point that the present team, with or without Utley, is not going to contend for the post season any time soon. The immediate future looks bad with only a couple of our own prospects likely to join (read: “refresh”) the big club: Franco in another year or so, Asche sometime THIS season, and MAYBE Biddle, with Cesar Hernandez a strong candidate at 2nd base.
Missing are strong hitting/fielding outfielders, and a catcher capable of playing 2nd fiddle to a re-signed Ruiz unless Rupp can fill that role. NO pitchers are showing well enough to be included as potential members of the pitching staff for ’14.
So, the issue for me is whether this franchise is going to limp into ’14 with the team making only changes at the edges. That decision, if taken, will verify the team as a 2nd division gang for at least 3-4 years to allow our better draftees to emerge.
Watching a “rejuvenated” Utley may be pleasureable but does NOTHING to change the horrid future mentioned.
circumstances
If you
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Continuing: Trading him NOW–while he is in a hot streak–is a perfect time to get back some significant help for the issues mentioned, and to buff a little of the near future via a couple superior prospects who are “close.”
Thank you Chase for your wonderful play in philly; now you can help the team’s future by moving out and allowing newbies to bring excitement again to Philly! Bon Voyage. Again, thanks.
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I am sure they give Utley a qualifying offer (approx. $13.5mil) and would expect compensation as good or better than a mid-late 1st round pick plus a throw in or 2.
Does anyone think giving Utley a qualifying offer is a bad thing? On that note how about Ruiz getting a qualifying offer?
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No, and no. They’d both be the team’s best options at their respective positions next season if they signed, and if they didn’t, the comp picks would likely have better value than whatever they’d bring in trade. They should both be kept and given qualifying offers.
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Yes for Utley though I think he’s reject it. Absolutely no for Ruiz. The Q.O. will exceed $14mil this year – the Phils can sign Chooch for 2yrs for that amount.
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I would buy low on Ruiz right now and re-sign him to a 2 year deal with a vesting 3rd year based on his health in year 2 of the deal. There is no reason to believe Rupp, Joseph, Valle, or others will be deserving of an everyday job in the big leagues in 2014 or 2015. I’d like to see Joseph make it to the bigs as a backup in 2015 and then be ready to take over as the starter in 2016, in an ideal world. However, none of those guys are ready next year so Ruiz is clearly the best option and there would be no better time to lock him up financially than right now.
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Mike. you can offer him a one year deal?? Even though he is a free agent with over 10years in league, didnt know that, I would definitely do that, instead of giving him away for nothing, I wouldnt go three years for him, but on year, iis a good deal. gives us a better read on hernanez, good move imo.
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Ibanez was a 15-year vet when the Phils made a QO after 2011. He signed with the Yankees, and the Phils got a comp pick (Mitch Gueller). I doubt Utley would bring back a prospect with Gueller’s upside, even if he’s light years away.
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I see the value for Utley, M.Young, and D. Young increasing as the season progresses. All three will probably be hitting around .300 around the deadline. Utley will probably get you the highest value based on the name recognition and his past “big game” performances in the playoffs. A top 25 prospect from a team that is going for it is not out of the question.
My only concern is about whether there is an adequate replacement for Utley and if he would sign for a one year $8M deal. Anyone who wants to give him $12M to $13M per season at 35 years old is crazy given his inability to stay on the field over the last three years.
As for the Young’s, we have players in the minors who need to audition for next year. This is critical in determining the off season moves. C. Asche is ready and there is a host of OF’s that can be brought up as well. Ruff seems to have fallen out of favor by the club, not sure if there is more going on. His LF defense has gotten better, but there is something going on with his hitting this year. Scouts agree that T. Gillies has all of the tools to play in the majors right now. But he doesn’t seem to be putting it together. Why not just give him a shot, it won’t be the last time a borderline major leaguer actually made it.
Also, I just don’t want to fall into the trap of Kendrick and give him a three year deal right now. Amaro will certainly try to give him a Blanton type deal in the off season. I say trade him at his max value.
The great part about these moves, much like last year is this is still a second half team in contention.
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My only concern is about whether there is an adequate replacement for Utley and if he would sign for a one year $8M deal. Anyone who wants to give him $12M to $13M per season at 35 years old is crazy given his inability to stay on the field over the last three years.
———————–
This is the part of the argument I don’t understand. If you can’t replace Utley, why wouldn’t you re-sign him for let’s say 2 years 25M with a vesting third year option? At that rate, and considering the massive dropoff in production of whoever replaces him, even 130 games of Utley makes sense at that $ amount. The Phillies have the money and I fail to see what FA signings are available in the next two seasons that they should be saving money for.
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“Anyone who wants to give him $12M to $13M per season at 35 years old is crazy given his inability to stay on the field over the last three years.”
Wrong – even when he played 80 games, he was worth more than that. If he can play 120-130 games in a year (which is about how many games he will probably play this year), he will produce almost the entire value of his contract, in a single season and way, way more than $12-13 million of value. If Utley hit the FA market this year without signing with the Phillies he would be one of the great value pick ups for another team. Think Carlos Beltran for the Cardinals – that kind of value or more.
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Agreed. The report sof Utley’s demise are greatly exaggerated…..and wrong. He is playing at an elite level right now. Although he might not be in year 3 of a a new contract, you are likely to get more than enough value in years 1 and 2 to justify that type of contract. Though I think the problem with re-signing Utley (if there is one) may be more down to whether he wants to still play here rather than whether the club wants to offer something along the lines of 3 years $40M or so which is what he will easily command on the open market
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Do you two guys work for the agency representing Utley? Because there is no way I want to be paying Utley at 38 years old for playing 80 games a year at $12M per. Hernandez is about a year away from being an everyday player. But, it would be unfair to compare his power numbers against that of Utley.
Though I do respect your being a fan of Utley, there is some serious case of blindly loyal.
C. Beltran was 33 years old when traded to the Giants. Utley will be 35 at the end of the year and has not played a full season in over 2 years. This is not a one for one scenario.
One year at $8M with a vesting option on games played and plate appearances.
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A little advice. If you are going to post silly opinions, just do so. No need to be condescending.
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+1 – this post made almost no sense whatsoever. Virtually every assertion was incorrect.
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Must you ber reminded of the First Amendment.
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I hate when people misuse the first amendment. It does not mean that you cannot be censured on a public or private bboard it means the federal government can’t censure you, within certain limits.
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In reference to Utley trade, is there any examples of a team trading their ‘face of the franchise’ towards the end of their career and getting a return that significantly improved the club?
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Carlos Beltran for Zach Wheeler.
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Is that a joke? David Wright was/is the face of the franchise. Jose Reyes was more of the face of the franchise. Carlos Beltran was not the face of the franchise.
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Forget whether he was the face of the franchise. It was a great deal! Wheeler is going to be a stud for the next 10 years for a 2 month rental.
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Regardless, its a fairly good comparison for Chase Utley.
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The Yankees under George Steinbrenner’s 37 year ownership never sold.
While “King George” owned the Yankees they finished under .500 just six times.
They won seven World Series, eleven American League championships and made it to the postseason twenty-two times.
George Steinbrenner never went a** up and bit the pillow.
John S. Middleton has made doing so a feature of his faceless stewardship of the Phillies.
Selling has made John $. Middleton money, but it never helped the Phillies get better.
Scott Rolen, Curt Schilling, Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence were all sold. They cut the Phillies payroll, but no players brought back in their sale made the Phillies postseason winners.
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Your point is so bad its laughable. its not middleton who is the one not willing to spend.
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So I don’t get your point. Can you post another five thousand posts about the same subject? Thanks!
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The issue isn’t the overall budget anymore. This isn’t the 1980’s or 1990’s. If the Phillies are Top 5, Top 6, Top 7 in spend…even staying within the Top 10 in spend annually…and they are…that should be enough to compete for and even win a WS. So then it comes down to the decisions by the FO.
From all that I have ever read, Middleton is not the problem, and might be the most engaged and forward thinking of the other owners. In fact, I don’t think the owners are the problem at all when it comes to how the Phillies allocate their budget. Yes, the owners might have a budget they mandate…but I doubt they tell Giles and Montgomery how to spend it in detail.
The issue for many years is how the Phillies have allocated their budget…especially since 2003 when they started to turn a corner and the new stadium being built helped them increase overall budget.
The Phillies under Giles and Montgomery seem to love to spend it all on MLB vets. They seem to love the big MLB veteran trade or FA signing. They never would allow the team to spend the budget (or much of it) on amateur talent. They would only spend the bare minimum on amateur talent. Mostly only what they were required to spend. Never more, and unfortunately sometimes even less.
The owners might have been a big part of the problem for the first 20 years that Giles and Montgomery ran the team. But I don’t see them being a problem anymore.
If there is anyone to blame for the fact that the transition from the old core to a new core was almost completely ignored and never planned very well, is probably going to be very messy, and could take longer than fans would like, I think that lies at the feet of Giles and Montgomery for how they have chosen to allocate the budget over the last decade. A very large budget. One of the largest in MLB.
We’ll see how it goes.
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I been saying it for year, Giles is behind the bad moves made by this team, and the bad decision on how to spend there resources, and montgomery is just a puppet for him. He might be a nice guy in person, but a really bad part owner, who imo has too much influence on the organization. Especially on The drafts and international spending. My hatred of him started when he traded bowa and sanberg for dejesus, because him and bowa had a argument, he let emotion get in the way of a baseball decesion and let dallas green who was with the cubs, take him to the cleaners, on the trade.
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I think the owners do set the draft and international budgets. They just say ‘do not exceed the commissioner’s guidelines’. It is uncanny how the Phillies spend was so congruent with the Selig’s recommendations for the first 10 rounds. We would save in early rounds and go over on some HS fliers, but it always balanced. We were never out of line for what we paid a round 1-2 pick. Consider how many teams went over the suggestion to get their guy(s). We had a long time of unaggressive international spending. This is not something that changed when GMs changed, so it has to be on the ownership. They have always been huge Selig boosters.
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Free…….like I have said innumerable times in the past…the ownership has to be taken to task and publicly embarrassed through media channels for philosophical change to occur;
Your blog is not cutting it right now. Try one of the big mouthpieces in the area…Angelo Cataldi. He is one for erupting a controversy.
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Publically embarass? How, pray tell, does one do that?
People have harped on the Phillies for being cheap for decades. It’s the constant calling card of the uninformed.
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And suggesting having Cataldi as a mouthpiece hurts your argument more than it helps it. This is a guy who wants to publically embarass the greatest QB in the history of the Eagles just because he was wrong about McNabb when he was drafted. He’s a buffoon and a POS.
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Wake up. He gets results. People detest him. His style is arrogantly contemptuous but the longer he harps the more management of sport teams begin to get hot under the collar. The writers begin to write about it more often, as David Murphy is starting to do now , along with Sheridan. Then once it gets on the television with a network like CSN, then its starting to build up. A matter of time.
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Really? He gets results? So he’s looked at as an ass by the majority of the population but he gets results? What in the heck are you talking about?
Sports writers always shift with the times. You want to know why? Because of their readership, who also shifts with the times. People don’t want to read about how the Phillies situation is all roses, because in reality it’s not. So that’s what the writers will write about. This isn’t rocket science. Wake up.
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Greatest QB in Eagles history…now you show your stupidity!
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Insults are fun. I’m not going to de-evolve into a football debate. You have your opinion. Mine is backed up by facts.
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Is there a question McNabb WASN’T the greatest Eagles QB?
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Well according to sports talk in this town, McNabb was the worst thing to ever happen to the Eagles.
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All his championship rings prove it!
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Ah…and which Eagles QB(since 1960) has the championship rings to dethrone McNabb?
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Hah……so Van Brocklin’s ring is meaningless! Maybe we can talk Tommy Thompson with two. But hey this is a baseball site not football.
http://www.eagleseyeblog.com/2010-articles/february/the-eagles-qsuperq-qb-you-never-knew.html
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The point I think we are all trying to make is that the Phillies current front office is stupid, not cheap. I think you should look at the facts and data, and you’ll come to the same conclusion as the rest of us. This franchise is no longer cheap by any stretch, they are just dumb right now, especially since Mr Gillick “retired”.
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I have to agree with that Buddy. The stars aligned perfectly 10 years ago. No one expected Chase Utley to develop into the game’s top 2nd baseman and no one saw Howard emerging as the premier power hitter in baseball. Even in 2008, if it were not for the one-man show that was Cole Hamels we don’t win a WS. Not to take away from the franchise – it’s been a great stretch of baseball until recently, but I find it difficult to give much of the credit to the front-office particularly given the resources available to them. ‘I don’t have a five year plan’ says it all
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So you’re criticizing the Phillies organization because Utley and Howard — two players the org drafted, developed and traded established veteran players in order to allow them to play every day — became stars? I’m not sure I follow the logic.
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Nah Mike – I’m just saying that it wasn’t a result of some master plan
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Steve, this is strange statement from you as the Phillies drafted well when in a reasonable position. What do you call the draft and development? The next time someone points how great some other team( say the Cardinals are) I will bring this statement back and say it was not planned just luck. The Philles deserve credit for planning successful drafts.
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This would apply to Will also.
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+1 … Again, you can’t call it luck when an organization drafts (or signs) and develops All Star talent. And if, as stated below, the recent run of success was accomplished on the backs of such players, it only shows that the org did well in developing them.
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philabalt – I don’t agree that they drafted well. Sure, they’ve accomplished to develop a number of contributors late in the draft but the 1st and 2nd rds have been a colossal bust most years. Guys that haven’t contributed at all and never will. Every team misses in the early rounds but the Phils seems to have more misses than other teams.
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Steve, when you draft in the lower 20% of the draft and sign free agents for ten years you will not get the best players. They have done a nice job of developing the players they draft but they are less talented and you can’t teach talent. Where I agree with you is in the International Market signings could have been greatly expanded in the past years but they have not done that since Giles group bought the team(so you can’t blame any GM for this). The ironic thing is that the Phillies were one of the pioneers in Latin America acadamies under the Carpenters. The new CBA agreement actually benefits the Phillies as teams must be more careful of their Draft and International spending limits.
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Philabaltfan,
I respectfully disagree with you and anybody else about the Phillies being a victim of circumstance in the draft. The Phillies were victims only of their own mind sight and lack of vision when it comes to investing dollars in amateur talent.
The fact that the Phillies drafted near the bottom of Round 1 or even lost early picks due to signing MLB Free Agents did not prevent them from drafting and signing some of the best talent available in any given year under the old draft system thru 2011. They had multiple opportunities over the years since 2003 to draft blue chip talent but passed because they refused to pay the signing bonus those players were asking.
The Phillies even refused to meet the demands of most of the “overslot” players they did actually draft. The Phillies have NEVER paid any player outside of Round 1 over $1M (unless that pick was in essence their #1 pick). Not one time.
Most big market teams with the kind of overall budget that the Phillies had took a different approach. Some of the small market teams also took a different approach than the Phillies, but for different reasons. The point being was that the opportunities were there multiple times and in multiple rounds. The Phillies never acted on those opportunities. Not a single one of them. It was by choice. Nobody forced them to take that approach.
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Well I guess we will just have to disagree on this point as you can’t teach talent.
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I agree with Steve (Tampa).
Certainly one must see the difference between drafting “well” or average or whatever versus drafting (or having the opportunity to draft) a series of All Star caliber players in back(96)-to-back(97)-to-back(98)-to-back(99)-to-back(00)-to-back(01)-to-back(02) years?
Tell me this, when was the last time the Phillies found a prospect like Jimmy Rollins at #46 overall? Or a player like Ryan Howard at #140 overall?
The closest from 2003 thru 2013 so far has been who? Michael Bourn? Dom Brown? 1 or 2 All Star level players from the draft in the last 11 years of drafting? Still early I know, but the last 11 years are not looking like they will come close to matching that very unique 7 year period from 1996 thru 2001.
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He is very reasonably pointing out that the Phillies’ successful run in the late aughts was mostly accomplished on the backs of a handful of great players, and that such success was a result of fortuitous timing in the development of several difference-making players as opposed to a recommendable front office strategy.
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Thanks Will. Better said than I
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I certainly agree to a certain extent. A poorly run franchise for most of its history lucked out by having 4-5 generational stars reach their primes simultaneoulsy. But Gillick deservces some credit too. They don’t win the WS without guys like Blanton, Werth, Vic, Lidge, etc. And the new stadium gave Gillick the ability to do so.
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That’s why I credit the just finished great Phillies run to our scouts and Ed Rendell. Management didn’t suddenly become smart. They had an ocean of money land on their heads, courtesy of Governor Rendell and they finally signed the right guys early in the years they had relatively good draft picks.
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It will become more obvious in hindsight as the years go by how incredible the Phillies run in the draft was from 1996 thru 2002. And they signed Ruiz for $8K in 1998. Even with screwing up in draft in 1997 and in 2001, they still found a bunch of key contributors, even All Stars, that laid the foundation for the great teams from 2005 thru 2011.
It was the perfect combination of skill, luck, and being at the right place at the right time.
The last time the Phillies franchise did that was in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s when that same perfect combination played out for the great teams of the late 1970’s and early 1980’s.
Hopefully it won’t be another 30 years before it happens again.
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It will be alot sooner than that – I can’t believe that fellow posters who enjoyed one of the best runs of any Phillies teams can turn so quickly when things get a little uncertain. Where were all of you when these moves were made? We all knew this train would end sometimes so now it is time to reload.
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Who is turning? Seriously? It is an observation about 1996 thru 2002. Not a criticism.
The only criticism in my opinion is that the Phillies failed to understand this and be more aggressive in amatuer spending over the last decade when they weren’t picking in the Top 5 or Top 20 every year.
Their “Blue Light Special” strategy from 2003 thru 2011 wasn’t the way the built the current core, and it hasn’t met with nearly the same success in results.
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This is the crux of the matter. The Phillies have spent enough in total, but they have run the CHEAPEST amateur player acquisition in baseball. That guaranteed the good run would come to an end as the old core aged. Many posters on this board and Philliesphans have argued that this didn’t matter — the Phillies were such a big money team that they would just go out and buy whatever player they needed to keep the string going. That was never sustainable and that system has now crashed and burned. The Rangers seem to have learned from our mistakes. As their MLB team flourished, they have kept the pedal to the metal, told Selig where to go, and kept primo talent going into their farm. Classic rebuild on the fly. The Phillies have stuck with the Giles philosophy: stand shoulder to shoulder with the commish and happily accept a ‘good enough’ farm, when the MLB team is strong. The other owners should have recognized that Giles is the village idiot. That they didn’t says quite a lot about them and their interest in their passive investment.
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Well, let’s be fair. Some things in the organization have gotten a lot better.
To begin, the team, due in large part to its great fan base and superb ball park, has become an economic juggernaut, which allows the club to dedicate substantially more money to payroll (and to their credit, they do dedicate this money). This is an enomrous difference if leveraged properly – probably a difference of about 10-15 wins a year if the money is used in an intelliigent fashion, which, obviously, is not always the case, but the money is there for that (I know there is no direct conversion rate, but this is how it essentially works out).
Second, the team, on the whole, really has gotten better at drafting. We are a little blind to that because our historically great players are aging and many of the young players we recently drafted have been traded, but this Phillies administration is much, much better at drafting players than the Phillies teams of old, even in the Arbuckle years. If you look carefully at the Arbuckle drafts, they were often defined one home run pick and a ton of clunkers (many more than in recent drafts), which suggests to me that luck played a HUGE part in the team’s rebuiliding success in the late 90s and early 2000s. I just think the overall draft philosphy is better and it certainly plays up even more as a result of the new Commssioner-friendly draft system where you can’t go “outside the box” to pay for picks with impunity.
Third, the Phillies are about to get a whopper of a television contract that, with a little care and feeding, should keep them in the upper eschelon of economic players for the next 15-20 years.
Fourth, now that the team has been so good, I think the powers that be, while they will still be patient, will demand that the team be restored to that level of success. This is not like Atlanta where, no matter how well the team plays, fan interest is tepid and fickle. In Philadelphia, if you build that team, the fans have come and they will come and they will gladly shell out money like nobody’s business. Frankly, I am convinced that we have the best, most knowledgeable and most loyal fans in baseball. And I grew up outside New York, so I think I have a good source of comparison. The entire city doesn’t live and die with their baseball team in New York they way they do here – and it isn’t just the baseball team – the Eagles share the same level of underlying fan interest and if they ever won a Super Bowl, they would definitely own the town again, regardless of how good the Phillies get.
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Callis answered a Franco question in the Ask BA column yesterday. He (rightly, IMO) dismisses the Beltre comp, but seems to be coming around on his swing:
Phillies third baseman Maikel Franco has been on a tear since being promoted to Double-A, and his quick bat and power have drawn some comparisons to Adrian Beltre. Do you think that’s a fair comparison?
Steve White
Maplewood, N.J.
Maikel Franco
Franco ranked as Philadelphia’s No. 8 prospect entering 2013, which has become a breakout season for him. He batted .299/.349/.576 as a 20-year-old in high Class A, and has strafed Double-A pitchers for a .468 average and four homers in his first 11 games at that level.
I believe Franco has hit his way into Top 100 Prospect status, but I don’t love the Beltre comparison at all. At the same age, Beltre was a solid regular in the big leagues. He’s making a legitimate case for the Hall of Fame, and his tools grade (and graded at the same stage) as better than Franco’s across the board.
Franco does have bat speed and plenty of raw power. He does have an unconventional swing and lacks patience at the plate, so he might not be more than an average hitter. He’s a well below-average runner, though he does play a solid third base thanks to soft hands and a strong arm.
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“Hit his way into Top 100” haha. Callis will never come around on Franco.
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For the record, Jason Parks just posted a pretty damning Franco scouting report as well.
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Yeesh, really? What did he have to say?
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Doesn’t like the hit tool because the swing can get long and the approach is aggressive. Franco’s coordination is good enough for the level of pitching right now to not make it an issue, but it could be a big whole on the major league level. He thinks the body is high maintenance and could force him to first base.
Parks does believe in the power saying it is 6+ power, but he sees more of a regular than a first division starter.
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I don’t believe 5, yet alone 6, of these guys will be in our top 10 going into next season. This is just an exaggerated way of saying he liked our first 6 picks. Who are they going to kick out of the top 10, after having accomplished little this year apart from being drafted high. Some of the guys they would kick out were drafted a lot higher than they were or were signed for good-sized international bonuses. I can’t imagine 6 of these guys will have shown enough to boot Franco or Biddle from the top 10. Are we going to see six of these guys demonstrate a higher ceiling than Tocci or Watson or Quinn or Martin. Depending how he does the rest of the year, perhaps we’ll slide Joseph out of the top 10. For me, Asche is likely to stay top 10. I realize that I lean strongly in the direction of not prematurely awarding top 10 spots to new draftees who have yet to show anything in the pros, but it is hard to believe 5-6 of these guys deserve a top 10 spot. I think I was right in not declaring LGJ top 10 last season. This year, I can see Crawford
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So what I have to say about the delusional people who overvalue the trade value of our veterans by an order of magnitude is this: if you’re going to dream, dream large. I’m shocked, shocked that no one has picked up on my very reasonable suggestion of a D. Young for M. Trout trade, Very fair deal for both teams. It helps the Angels rebuild because they will lose more games. They would be fools to turn it down.
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I like this heel turn Larry.
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That’s just ridiculous…we might have to throw in Gillies and Hewitt to get a guy like Trout.
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LOL Larry. Now we all know what happens next. Amaro trades a couple of veterans for reasonable if not very good returns that still don’t meet the fanciful expectations of some on here. Then those posters reverse course and say that Rueben would have been better off holding onto X rather than trading him for that (reasonable, if not very good) return.
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Matt – I hope you and the gang aren’t going to let this kind of talk go unchecked. And how many times is this going to happen with this guy? There’s no less than three posts this morning which include name-calling and I’m far from the only one who’s had problems with this poster.
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I am working on doing some clean up right now, but I don’t have the time to scrub through for everything.
Larry (and others), since I assume you are reading this, anymore continued attacks on other posters will result in at minimum a temporary ban. Please keep the discussion based on topics related to baseball and the Phillies not the other people who frequent this site.
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Matt, if you aren’t even handed about this, I WILL wreck this site.. I have been on my best behavior for months, yet I am continually attacked by the likes of Steve. And you guys do nothing. Does he (and AEC) have pics on you or something?
If you rein in Steve, AEC and the other toxic posters, I will be happy to go back to the model citezen I have been lately., If not, not.
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I clean up what I can, but I work 50-60 hours a week, coupled with having a life, doesn’t allow me to filter everything out. Also for the sake of site and conversation integrity if we delete a comment with children it destroys the structural integrity of the rest of the thread.
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There just seems a double standard Matt. I leave a nasty comment and it gets removed in 5 minutes. Steve can take shots at me for weeks – weeks when I was on my best behavior and – and no one does a thing. Unlike some people, I don’t go whining to you guys every time like some people do. He “admits he plays a role.” That’s the understatement of the century.
Let me just say this … I WILL NOT restrain myself, even a little, if he starts up again. I saw what THAT got me – it just encouraged him.
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I think the difference is that some people have thinner skin
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Come
on matt get us some draft info.
I know you can do it
, Do you think we get any high school kids to sign???
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The guy just said he works 50-60 hours a week and manages (in the past few days, one would argue, babysits) this site in his spare time. I seriously hope you’re breaking his balls with this reply.
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yeah. just having a little fun. I REALLY appreciate what matt does,
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Thanks Matt. And sorry it comes to this. I admit that I play role here though I can say that my less than respectful posts have been limited to a single poster. I’ll just ignore the guy going forward.
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Matt, I agree that Larry often lacks tact, but I don’t think he’s a problem. And thanks for doing what you can
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Does Lannan have any trade value? Teams looking for a 5th starter?
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I want to thank Matt and Brad and other contributors like Greg, Andy, and Joe for your volunteer work in handling this site. I appreciate greatly what you do. I hope every visitor will appreciate you also.
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Seconded. This is the best phillies site on the internet.
To the commenters having the problems, please don’t take your personal issues with each other out on the people who run this site, for our benefit in their free time.
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Rangers acquired pool money from the Marlins, tweets Soldevila. The Marlins have the sixth-largest pool at $3,395,200, and were expected to be willing to part with some of it. The Rangers can acquire up to half of their pool amount, which comes to $971,350, but they have to do it by acquiring slot values. If the Rangers went less than 5% over their pool they’ll be subject to a 75% tax on the overage; the penalties increase from there.
8:32am: The Rangers signed shortstop Yeyson Yrizarri for $1.375MM, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America. The 16-year-old was born in Venezuela and raised in the Dominican Republic. BA ranks him seventh, while MLB.com has him 23rd. The Rangers also signed Dominican outfielder Jose Almonte for $1.8MM, tweets Dionisio Soldevila of ESPN Deportes. Badler kept Almonte outside of his top 30, noting that he “has been the subject of rumors regarding his potential bonus that seem to wildly outstrip his value as a solid but not premium prospect.” MLB.com ranked him 13th. th
BA notes Yrizarri is a nephew of former big leaguer Deivi Cruz. His stock rose quickly in recent weeks; Yrizarri has “gap power for now” and may wind up an above-average defender at second or third base. MLB.com has much praise for Almonte’s bat, while Badler is more skeptical.
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Let it begin….all the players will be active, and our team will observe and take notes.
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K Law notes the Phillies as one of the improving systems. Notes strong draft class along with development of Biddle & Franco. Outweighs the negatives of Quinn, Greene,Martin and Morgan. Expects the top 1o this year to made up of a lot of the recent draftees.
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Yeah. This is pretty shocking though:
Their top 10 heading into 2014 will look quite different than it did in February, with their top five draft picks likely all appearing there, perhaps six if Oregon State’s Ben Wetzler passes his physical (he missed time with back trouble this spring) and signs.
Wetzler going into our top 10. Doesn’t say much for our current players.
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I agree the system is improving. I also agree that the new Top 10 will probably include many recent draftees from 2012 and 2013. However that also means that significant help from the farm is still probably a few years away at best.
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Even though Joseph, Martin, Morgan and Greene slipped the overall DEPTH of the Phillies system improved dramatically over the last year. Maybe the top ten is weaker, but the top 30 is stronger. That’s not a BAD thing. Of course you’d rather have both, but I’ll take a deeper system while waiting for some more breakout occurs. Maybe some of the A, SS, Rookie guys breakout.
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Nah, our top 10 is stronger as well. 2 guys in the middle of top 100 rankings who are already at AA. That’s pretty good.
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I haven’t read the comments so it’s hard to guage, but I think it’s a bit unfair to be disappointed with Morgan or Quinn. Morgan got hurt but has shown a ton – rushing through the system as quickly as possible up until this spring. Quinn has shown enormous upside as he learns to switch hit and learn the most physically difficult position on the diamond (catching is the most mentally demanding) at the same time. Quinn still has tremendous upside and I would be upset if they traded him.
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It’s not fair to ding Morgan, but it’s going to happen. I also am not listing Quinn as a disappointment. I’m actually impressed with his season.
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It’s very fair to ding Morgan. Rating a prospect is a combination of ceiling, floor, probability of coming close to ceiling, and proximity. Morgan’s injury has at the very least reduced his proximity. It has lowered his floor to ‘injured shoulder doesn’t allow him to pitch again at a high level’, and it’s possible that his ceiling has gone done. A shoulder injury to a pitcher is a very serious thing.
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More rain expected in the Bay area for tomorrow morning – the GCL Phils may not play again until Thursday. I haven’t been counting but that has to be 5-6 rainouts in the past week and a half
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I’m not going to keep pounding the Utley issue into the ground; I’ve made my point. But I do have a few questions for those who are MOST optimistic about his trade value.
Now, I know you can find a few – not many – examples of rentals (i.e., players traded in the walk year of their contract) that returned a top prospect. So while I think it’s highly unlikely that that happens with Utley, especially given the rule change on compensation for players traded in their walk year, certainly it’s possible. But the questions:
(1) Those of you assuming that Utley WILL (not might) get that kind of return – how do you square such opinion with the fact that MOST rentals DON’T get that kind of return?
(2) Those of you who think that Utley is going to fetch MULTIPLE top prospects – and I’ve seen at least two people so argue that he will – can you point to even one example of a pure rental fetching multiple top prospects?
(3) Let’s assume for a minute that I am right, and the best you’re going to get for Utley is a decent prospect unlikely to be a difference maker. Do you still move him? I say no. (And to be fair, to answer the analogous question, IF you really could get a top 25 prospect for him, yes I would favor the deal.)
(4) This one is for Art only, and I ask it in the friendliest way possible as we have been getting along fine of late. You want “major league ready” talent. What are the three best examples you can find of “major league ready talent” for a rental? I’ll give you one, and a good one – Segura for Greinke. IMO that’s very much NOT the norm. (and he was not a top 50 prospect, though he was close – #55.) Most of the examples of good returns for rentals were players years away from the majors.
Can we at least agree that getting a top prospect for Utley would be quite a coup for Amaro, and that the more likely return (if one is optimistic) would be a solid, not top prospect? And if we can’t agree on that, why not?
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So basically you are saying we can get Sano for Utley?
JK
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Larry – I’m going to give this an honest effort going forward. It’s silly, I’m above it, and I’m sure you feel similarly. It’s not as if I haven’t had my emails or texts misinterpreted by others so I must admit that perhaps I’m finding something in your posts that isn’t truly there. That said, to your questions
(1) When you say ‘Top Prospect’ I suspect you’re describing a Top 25 in all of baseball type. I for one do not think that is probable or even possible.
(2) See 1 above
(3) ‘Difference maker’ is difficult to define or identify when dealing with prospects. At least one of the players they would receive in return must be near to major league ready and potential impactful. Probably AA or higher. Last night in a response to a question from Earl I mentioned the Dodgers Joc Pederson as a possibility. I also mentioned that I would love to see Van Slyke included in that deal. Though the 2nd player might be a stretch, I think the Dodgers are probably the best example out there of a franchise who might be willing to overpay. In this scenario we wouldn’t be receiving a Top 25 prospect yet I feel the return would still be reasonable. There’s a risk here that Utley doesn’t sign an extension and if we can obtain more value than we would stand to gain in a comp pick then I say we do it. Utley isn’t getting any younger. He’s dealing with a chronic condition that he currently has under control but he hasn’t and never will fully overcome.
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Appreciate the tone of the response. Don’t have the time at the moment to fully do the substance justice, but one quick point:
Pederson was a top 100 prospect pre-2013 by at least one source (#85). He’s essentially repeating his fine 2012 season, but in AA at the age of 21. Actually, taking context into account, and base running, he’s having a BETTER season than he did in 2012, at a higher level. I’d say he probably has a strong argument for top 50 status at this point, no? He alone would IMO be an overpay.
But if there is an organization that will overpay, it’s the Dodgers.
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I hear you re Pederson but even at #85 is he a ‘Top’ prospect by your definition?
I think the Dodgers org is a tad egotistical at the moment and will be damned if they aren’t going to compete in the very near term. Utley fills a glaring hole for them and as I mentioned last night, Utley’s limited no trade rights might actually work in the Phillies favor. If the Dodgers feel that they are not only getting a 1-year rental but a guy they expect to have around for another 2-3 years, then this would increase their willingness to overpay. Of course, this changes the entire dynamic of the discussion. We need solutions for our outfield and the Dodgers have a surplus – seems like a good fit
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My guess is Larry is considering any Top 100 guy a “Top Prospect”. I would rank them as such. For example, if we traded Biddle, and someone asked me about him I’d say, “Pitcher. Top prospect. etc”
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I have not been clear I guess on what I mean on top prospect. Sometimes I think top 25, sometimes top 50. Basically someone who is projected to be a star, or at least well above average.
I’m not sure it matters whether you define Pederson as a “top” prospect or not. If we go with top 50, I think he may be that now, but if we go by the above definition he probably isn’t (though IMO he looks better considering age/level/performance than what appears to be the scouting consensus).. Again, his stock has risen this season. But that’s besides the point. “Top” prospect or not, I don’t think the Dodgers will do that deal. FWIW, if they did I would do the deal from the Phillies perspective.
I will say this … if you are an optimist about what Utley will bring, but at the same time want to keep in the realm of the possible, Pederson is a good name to dream on. You have a prospect who is very good, but not regarded as a future star, and an organization that hasn’t been shy about trading prospects for veterans in the past (and has pulled the trigger on perhaps the worst trade of the century).
I have a comment in my head where I use Pederson as a starting point to do a better job of explaining why I tend to be pessimistic about the return for Utley specifically and veterans generally. But I have to get back to work, so putting that comment in writing will have to wait.
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Lets assume we keep Utley, what is the point? I love chase like I love my first born. I know there’s no heir apparent(not sold on Ceser). i think we over value Utley for what he has done but the time has come to look at the future. I think you could get a good, not great, prospect. I know it’s hard to look at the fan base and say you’re rebuilding but most realize that’s what needs to happen. I think trading Utley would anger many fans but the time has come. It’s a sad day but its reality.
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At this point it’s actually more beneficial for both parties to part ways. The Phillies get maybe not a ‘top top’ prospect, but they should be able to get somebody pretty good into their farm system for Utley and Utley gets to move on to a team in contention this year and also have no feelings of ‘abandoning’ the franchise by not signing to come back.
Chase Utley needs to go to the AL. *PERIOD*. It will prolong his career, it will help him be able to play more games each season and be more productive and feel better. If he goes to the AL and DH’s let’s say 25-30 games the next two seasons, he’d still probably be playing 110 games at 2B. I think going to the AL and continuing to be able to be an effective 2B will let him pad his stats and make Hall of Fame more of a possibility.
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I guess the question is what does Utley bring back in return. If it is someone like Joc Pederson you do it. If it is a A ball arm outside of the Top 100 you don’t. Utley still has value in that if he is still a solid player better than any reasonable replacement and if he signs elsewhere the Phillies get a compensation pick. Additionally, you can’t underestimate the value an Utley brings in terms of fans. I remember going out to games in the mid ’80 just to see Mike Schmidt play even though the team was in decay.
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I may be int the minority but I feel like you have to trade Utley. I wouldn’t give him away for free and I do think teams will be willing to give up good prospects. What makes me worried is if the the team holds onto him and they go on a second half surge, that probably means Utley resigns. I look at the whole thing as something that needs to be teared down and built up. This brings me to Amaro. I think they need someone who is from outside the organization. Someone who will have fresh ideas instead of ownership’s. I am sure people will disagree with me but I honestly feel its time to rebuild.
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I agree that the team needs to rebuild but I don’t see how trading Utley for fringe prospects helps that effort. At worst he resigns and is blocking an average at best prospect, not a guy you are building the team around, while giving you better than average production, keepng fans in the seats, and mentoring young players. Or he returns a pick if he signs elsewhere.
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Rebuilding is one thing (whatever that really means) but how does getting a marginal prospect or two for Utley help you “rebuild”?
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I’ll tell you how. everyone assumes this is all or nothing. Talk to Utley. he knows the situation. Tell him they want to sign him but also wouldn’t mind getting something for him in a down year. Phils go into full sell mode. They finish in the bottom 10 in wins. They would have a protected 1st round pick in next year’s draft. If the team, who gets Utley, offers him $15M, the Phils would only lose a 2nd round pick. So they’d trade Utley and a 2014 2nd round pick for prospect(s) who could help in the near term. Pick the right deal and this makes sense. I’ll admit there are a lot of if’s in this scenario. What if Chase wants to stay with the new team? What if he has a killer last few months of the season and ends up doing better on the open market? What if the 2nd round pick turns out better than any prospects you can get in return? What if the fans revolt? What if Chase were to stay and have a killer last few months and push the Phils into the playoffs?
How would you like to be GM? your damned if the do and damned if you don’t. Everyone has 20/20 hindsight. I say Go to a fortune teller and flip a coin 5 times and there should be your answer.
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Utley currently ranks fourth in OPS among second basemen with at least 200 plate appearances. So clearly he’s still got some hit in those legs. That said: Why settle for a “good, not great, prospect” when you could keep him with the option of a.) resigning him to a team-friendly extension, b.) signing him to a one-year qualifying offer that requires no long-term commitment, or c.) losing him as a Type A Free Agent and getting a sandwich pick. At worst, you get a Top 50 pick in next year’s draft. At best, you keep a player who still can rake, plays solid D and is a role model for the incoming youth movement. Trading him makes little sense unless you get a seriously good prospect.
I keep coming back to an anecdote Dom Brown gave last month to a reporter. He said whenever he faces a pitcher he hasn’t seen, he seeks Utley’s advice instead of simply trusting in the video. Utley, in other words, knows pitchers better than the game film.
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Well said again MIke. Trading Utley makes ZERO sense under any scenario (or for any reason) unless you get a “great” return.
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Kasten noted that the Dodgers do not have a lot of high-end prospects close to the Majors, and they would certainly not trade their best prospects for a rental. The team could be quieter than expected this summer and in the offseason, as Kasten told Shaikin, “I also think the direction we pursued last year — established veterans, looking at big free agents — we are going to move away from that. I know people think we are in this deal, in that deal, and in any deal. That is not what the next phase of this franchise requires.”
Share4 Tweet0 +107
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Here’s the link to the full post: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/dodgers-president-kasten-talks-trades-long-term-contracts.html#disqus_thread. I do think this throws some cold water on some of the speculation.
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I find it strinkingly refreshing when a President/GM comes out says things in concrete tactical term, ie ‘we like it at 36 (years-old)’. The NYY GM Cashman is the same way. No mincing of words, tells it like it is whether you like it or not. Even twitters it that way! (tic).
OTOH, Ruben gauges his words, to the point of coyness.
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I thought the same thing larry. unless its a smoke screen.which i doubt, but only a guess on my part.
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Utley’s name sure excites the conversation. Let me say this; I think the fact that Utley hasn’t managed to stay on the field is weighing much heavier on the minds of some posters than others. This is a big part of the reason why we see such varying opinions
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And this kind of thing is maddening: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/amaro-on-taking-on-salary-in-trades.html.
Despite my skepticism about trading veterans, the two guys who IMO might get us top 50 prospects are Lee and Papelbon. But they are far less likely to get us that if we don’t kick in some money.
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I believe this is posturing. I wouldn’t expect the guy to publicly lay his cards out.
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I wouldn’t assume it’s posturing. It seems to be the Phillies Way. Apart from needing to dump THome, the Phillies just haven’t sent $$ with players they’ve traded.
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It’s been a while since the phillies were in a position to dump expensive players like this. We’ll see..I’m just saying that regardless of what they intend to do, I wouldn’t expect or want them to announce that they’re willing to pay.
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They sent no money with Lee when they traded him. They sent no money with Pence or Victorino.
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They sent money with Pence to cover that year of the contract.
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Thought the same thing jpolice. If the Dodgers continue their winning ways the next few weeks I think they’ll be aggressive ahead of the deadline. Guess we’ll have to wait and see
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Definitely posturing and I really don’t mind it. I don’t really care at all if a GM doesn’t let fans in on his plan. RAJ is very guarded and that’s fine with me.
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MattWinks – With the between club trading of international slot monies….could the trading of top ten North American Draft picks or for that matter any round picks, be in the works for the future?
Is there talk along those lines?
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They are experimenting with the ability to trade competitive balance picks (3 were traded last summer). I think there will probably be draft pick trading of some sort in the future, it will likely be heavily regulated as well.
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Looking forward to something new and diffeent during the draft. Thank you.
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From philly.com:
“Amaro does not need to trade anyone. He said there is no mandate from ownership to shed payroll, even as the team has experienced an average decrease of 5,871 fans per game this season at Citizens Bank Park. When the Phillies’ TV contract expires at the end of 2015, they’ll be signing a new one that could bring $4 billion to $5 billion. They’ll need to maintain a shred of competitiveness to ensure its value. “Our revenues can support an average payroll that will be fairly significantly north of most franchises,” Amaro said Sunday. “That should allow me the flexibility, if I’m doing my job well enough, to be in contention every year.”
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Except he had a big payroll last season and this season and his team has not been in contention either year. I guess he just admitted that he has not been doing his job.
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Depends on how you define contention. I’m guessing in his mind hovering around .500 and being 8GB in the wildcard is contention.
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btw, i wonder why ben wetzler and dnaile child from oregon state haven’t signed yet. wetzler was a fifth-rounder. he’s better sign.
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Keith Law mentioned a physical and making sure his injury from the spring is fully healed, Wetzler would have likely had time off anyway coming off of the College World Series
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I was looking on the MILB website for local games (as in games I can drive to) over the July4th holiday and saw the Adam Morgan is slated to start on July 4th. I’m not sure if this is confirmed but, if so, that’s very good news. How quickly we forget. If he’s healthy, Adam Morgan can be one hell of a good pitcher – his upside looks like a solid 2 or a very good 3.
By the way, speaking of our pitchers, I am going to watch tonight’s game with Pettibone very carefully. I know his peripherals are not great, but Pettibone has been better than I expected in several areas. First, the guy has a great pitcher’s build, confidence and tremendous poise on the mound – he looks like a veteran out there, it’s palpable. I love the way he carries himself. Second, he has a much bigger arm than we were led to believe. In his most recent outings he has been hitting 95 and 96 on the gun and sitting 91-94 with the fastball – not bad at all and it gives him something to build on. Lastly, his breaking pitches are not that bad – if he turns one of them into a plus pitch he could become a very dangerous weapon. He’s a very nice find and I believe he has #3 upside. I see him as a fixture unless he’s involved in a trade.
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Pettibone making me look prescient. Oh yeah, did I mention today how much Delmon Young sucks.
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My top targets with potential trade partners:
1. Joc Pederson, OF – Dodgers
2. Gary Brown, OF – Giants
3. Nick Castelanos, OF – Tigers
4. Xander Boegarts, SS – Red Sox
5. Matt Barnes, SP – Red Sox
These are guys that will be ready within the next year or two for the majors.
After reading through some of the descriptions at http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/
It seems we already have comparable prospects to others previously mentioned from these teams.
My proposed deals would include these players :
1. Jimmy Rollins to the Giants for Gary Brown + other 2 prospects.
2. M. Young and Kendrick to the Red Sox for Xander Boegarts and 1 other prospect.
2014 Lineup:
1. Revere, CF
2. X. Boegarts, SS
3. D. Brown, LF
4. R. Howard, 1B
5. G. Brown, RF
6. C. Asche, 3B
7. C. Hernandez, 2B (assume Utley does not accept QO)
8. C. Rupp / C. Ruiz, C
Not sure I would move Rollins without getting Boegarts. Galvis simply is not the answer at everyday SS. Brown is a better option than T. Gillies or D. Ruff. If you really want to step it up, trade Utley for a deal including J. Pederson. In these cases, the players being obtained are blocked in the majors. Amazing how quickly the team can retool with the right deals. The Red Sox proved it this year.
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There is absolutely no way the Red Sox move Bogarts without the return being Stanton or someone of that caliber. I would doubt they would move him straight up for Cliff Lee
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Bogegarts is currently being blocked by Middlebrooks and Iglesius. Kendrick gives you a cost controlled pitching option next year and more. Also, they have shown interest in M. Young. Take advantage of Kendrick’s value right now.
I wouldn’t begin to consider trading C. Lee unless Boegarts and Matt Barnes were in the discussion. We already have prospects in the system comparable to Bradley and Webster. Not interested in more of the same. This is about getting better.
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Bogarts is not blocked by those guys, he will be forcing them out of the way when ready. We have no body in the system comparable to Bradley, and Webster would likely slot in right around the same spot as Biddle.
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I’m trying to be even nicer about this sort of thing – but this is the kind of post (I mean the first paragraph)where every price of it may be true, but it still doesn’t begin to support the conclusion. The talent disparity is just so huge. Nor do you even really have the “win now” rationale because Kendrick and M. Young would not appreciably increase the Red Sox chances to win. Finally, you have an organization (the Red Sox) that is analytically oriented, and this is a trade that just looks horrible to anyone analytically inclined.
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And this is why we have general discussion. What trade do you propose? Detroit, Boston, Baltimore, and LA are said to be interested in our players. SF is only 3 games out. They will be interested at some point as well. Who would you give up and what do you expect to get from them?
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Just as in all their trades, the Phillies wouldn’t move Brown, other teams don’t trade guys known to be super-primo prospects. You may get a guy who later turns into a super-primo, as many teams could have had Howard from the Phillies, but the guy the organization sees as its crown jewel is seldom dealt. It has to be a really good return. That’s why the Pence deal was the worst the Phillies have done in trading away prospects. Usually you can get a guy like Cosart or Joseph or Martin or Taylor or Carrasco who is far from a sure thing, but has a chance to be very good.
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Kind of beside the point. Even if there were no good deals out there, it’s still unproductive to speculate about the impossible,
But to answer your question, as I said in other posts, the only guys I see as getting us good prospects back (and OF COURSE we aren’t going to get someone as good as Boegarts) are Papelbon and Lee, and of those two I’d much rather move Papelbon. I’d trade M. Young, but they aren’t getting back even a marginal prospect IMO. Kendrick would get them a little more – maybe a relief prospect – but I’d probably rather keep him.
In the larger sense, IMO many people around here, yourself included, have a vastly exaggerated idea of the trade value of veterans. I’ve gone on about this at tedious length, so briefly:
(1) People focus on the few examples of lopsided deals for veterans and ignore the vast majority of deals which are not so lopsided;
(2) People ignore circumstances unique to some of the lopsided deals (e.g., a prospect who turns out much better than anyone expected at the time); and
(3) People ignore recent changes in (a) the rules (no more draft picks for players traded in their walk year) and (b) the dynamics of the game, where player development is increasingly regarded as key,
(As a side note, your other deal is more realistic, but I’m not that enamored of Brown as a prospect at this point & might even prefer keeping Rollins. Moreover, Crawford, his recent slump aside, has been as good or better than Rollins this year overall so I’m not sure why San Francisico would be interested.)
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This site is based on speculation of prospect values to the organization. Hence the need to discuss trade values of our players with other organizations.
Would you value Nolasco higher than Kendrick? Kendrick is right on par with Nolasco in numbers and significantly cheaper with cost certainty for another year. What are the Dodgers offering for Nolasco?
This team needs contributors over the next year or two at SS, OF, and 2B. Pederson, Castellanos, Brown, and Boegarts are in that window.
I see Utley getting you Pederson and Papelbon +Cash returning any of Boegarts, Bradley or Castellanos. My sense is Detroit is more willing to pull the trigger than the Red Sox.
The latest rumor is the Dodgers are willing to offer Utley 3 years $45M in FA. Not sure I am ready to make that concession, but his production (when healthy) needs to be replaced.
I agree that Brown may not be the best option, but you understand my line of thinking. Teams in contention value the veterans with history of previous playoff experience and feel that will give them an edge over younger / less experienced players. Perhaps the Beltran deal is simply an outlier. SF was willing to make that move.
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And OF COURSE the Beltran deal was an outier, there’s no maybe about it. But I’ll grant you that one can at least point to that deal and say “well, it’s possible to get a good prospect for a rental.” But your Boegarts deal is something else entirely – there’s just no precedent for it.
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John, we’re speaking past each other, and I (respectfully) don’t see the point of continuing beating a dead horse. The line of argument you are making is exactly what I refer to as magical thinking – the idea that just because we desire something (fill in the team’s various holes with potential stars) we can make it happen just by willing it.
Now, I’m not going to try to censor anyone, but it just seems to me – my opinion – that it’s better to speculate on the feasible. As I’ve said before – sarcastically yes, but at some level seriously – if you are going to speculate on the impossible (or in some cases on the extremely unlikely – though your suggested Boston trade in not just extremely unlikely but impossible), then why not go all out and dream about getting Trout for D. Young?
That said, the Castellanos deal is more realistic (still unlikely IMO but possible) than your suggested Boston deal because he is a lesser prospect (though still a good one), because Papelbon is a more valuable asset than Kendrick (not denying that Kendrick has value, just not nearly the value that you are ascribing to him), and because Detroit is not just “more willing to pull the trigger,” but … well, let’s be charitable, less data driven than Boston is.
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Trout is an established major leaguer at this point. Big difference there- clearly not in my trade proposals. Always enjoy the debate.
To your point, please offer some feasible deals for discussion. It seems you are endorsing of the Castellanos deal – making progress. In your opinion, who do the Dodgers offer for Utley?
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The Dodgers will offer a deal around Lee or Pederson, the guys you want are Seager and Urias.
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The other team interested in Utley and mentioned by outsiders is the Oakland A’s. What kind of prospects do the A’s have and do the match up with the Phillies needs?
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Michael Taylor.
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Well down the minors in low-A, but SS Addison Russell, their 2012 first rounder would be an interesting get.
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They were one of the teams that I was referring to when I said they weren’t the kind of team to overpay for a rental. I don’t think they are a good fit. Yes, I’ve seen some smart people say otherwise, but I don’t buy it. So I don’t have any names for you.
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John. your “please offer some feasible deals for discussion” request proves that we are talking past each other. Maybe it’s my fault for not being clear. But my point over the past few days has been that, except maybe for Papelbon (and Lee, but I don’t really want to move him & don’t think they will) there probably won’t be deals out there worth doing. (Sure, get rid of the Youngs and maybe try to turn Ruiz into a little something, but those guys won’t get us much.) A corollary of that is that the dream of turning the team around overnight is just that, a dream. There will be a couple of lean years and fans will need to be patient. (Though I don;t think they’ll be Marlins level bad, and avoiding that outcome is one reason I don’t think that they should “tear it down.”)
Even apart from that, I personally don’t enjoy the exercise of proposing specific deals. I know some people do, and that’s fine it’s a free country. But when I see a deal that I think is unrealistic (as most proposals on this site have been lately IMO) I’ll say so.
All THAT said, in a perfect (but realistic) world I’d like to see them deal Papelbon for a good corner OF prospect. Castellanos would be great – more than I think they’ll get, but a perfectly fine speculation without getting into the realm of the fantastical.
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Part of the reason that many vets don’t bring back much is $$. If the acquiring team needs to take on a lot of salary, that reduces the value. To get a good return, the Phillies would need to cover the rest of the 2013 salary. RAJ has possibly lied for bargaining advantage, but said that the Phillies wouldn’t be sending $. That will hurt the return. A lot is made about the limited value of a ‘rental’. I think a rental can actually be more appealing, as there is no future financial obligation. I’m not trying to be difficult here, but I really don’t see why Utley wouldn’t bring a package equal to what the Phillies gave for Pence, provided we pick up the 2013 salary. Utley isa more valuable player than Pence was and will have a much bigger stretch drive/post-season impact than Pence could have been expected to have. The acquiring team gets to assess Utley’s heath up close and personal and decide whether they want to extend him, with no possibility of losing a draft pick to sign him. I’d happily take the equivalent of what we traded for Pence.
It’s possible that you get more for Lee and Paps than you get for Utley, but I’m not so sure of that. Each carries a lot of salary obligation beyond this season, which carries risk and can mess with the acquiring team’s out-year payroll. I think Utley has as big an impact this season as either Lee or Paps.
Rollins is less value than these three players.
Ruiz is a wildcard. If he does well the next three weeks and a playoff contender needs a catcher, he could be right up there with Utley in value. Unless he does well/another team’s starting catcher gets injured, Ruiz might not bring all that much at all.
Either Young brings modest return. You get somebody else’s not-quite-as-good-as Asche or Martin, maybe a guy like Rosenberg or Dieckman.
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Maybe straight up for Cliff if we sent money, but not highly likely. Trades of a true ace are as unique as trades of an ace prospect. Bogaerts is the sort of prospect who is never traded.
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I totally agree.
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What reason would the Giants have to trade one of their top prospects for Jimmy Rollins? Brandon Crawford is eight years younger, as good a defender at this point, has a higher OPS and is a fan favorite in San Francisco. And don’t say, “Jimmy Rollins is from the Bay Area,” because so is Crawford.
There’s a chance the Phillies add some decent prospects in a sell-off during the next month, but expectations should be kept in check. None of these deals (aside from maybe Utley for Pederson, but even that would surprise me) have a snowball’s chance of happening.
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Brown is blocked in the outfield and he is not helping the them. At 24 years, he is losing any prospect status. The Phillies can use him right away. Rollins is a veteran player that makes the team better. He fits in with the general strategy of the team, young pitching with a veteran lineup. Rollins has the pedigree that Crawford does not have. This is the type of deal that is made by a World Series contending team. Forget about fan favorite as a rationale for not making the trade.
Basically, the same reasons the Dodgers would give up Pederson for Utley. They are going for a World Series.
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Brown is essentially at this point hoping to have Ben Revere’s career with a touch more power and a lot less contact ability
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I agree his contact isn’t great and can be improved. But he has significantly more power than Revere.
His 2013 numbers:
League / Team/ GP / AB // BA / R / 2B / 3B / HR / RBIs / BB / K / SB / OBP / SLG / OPS
PCL FRE /82 /342 /83 /.243 /60 /21 /4/ 11 / 40 / 21 /86 / 11 / .304 /.424 /.728
He probably should have been included in the Pence deal if Amaro pushed hard enough.
Good comp to Gillies – would love to see him put it together and called up this year.
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.728 OPS in the PCL. That’s like .600 OPS in a regular league.
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Didn’t fangraphs equate that to a percent-10 difference? If the case, then 73 points south of .728.
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So .650, that’s not a very good AAA OPS for an OF. Not sure why John thinks his contact rate can be improved. That seldom happens for a AAA player moving to bigs.
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Pederson is going to play a corner with 50 power. Average regular. I dont see why you all think hes untouchable. I certainly want something else with him for Utley.
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Mentioned this a few days ago Bob; Pederson and Van Slyke, the latter being a power RH bat – 4th OF’er type with a chance for regular ABs. Pederson though has a chance to be a bit better than your average regular IMO
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But Bob, that’s the point. On a pure value basis, even a major league ready prospect who projects as an average regular is a huge overpay for a rental, any rental. Teams in a close pennant race overpay for rentals but rarely by that much.
Which I why I think that ALL of the speculation regarding Utley is misguided. The disconnect between what would be considered by fans (and management) a fair return for Utley, and what he would reasonably get is in a trade, is huge. Your post illustrates that perfectly.
At the risk of going overboard on my new friendship with Steve, his revised proposal – where LA gets a chance to talk to him about an extension before a trade – is IMO the only way we get an acceptable return for him. But even then the return would be a guy like Pederson (or a player further away with more risk but also more upside).
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Remember too, before last year part of every deal for a team acquiring a rental (or at least a rental worth trading a good prospect for) included a high draft pick. Yeah, we had one huge overpay for a rental last season despite that change. But IMO such deals are going to be even more rare because of the rule change.
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And I think this is one of the reasons why he won’t be traded – the fans will blow a gasket unless the return is truly exceptional. And it won’t be. Management may think – probably does think and properly so “if he walks, the fans won’t blame us, and we’ll get a sandwich lick anyway. Why risk a fan revolt just to get a prospect that might not be any better than the sandwich pick?”
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I agree with this evaluation.
Unless Phillies get a “great” prospect, since he is going to have to handle the ‘how does it feel to be traded for Chase Utley’ questions for years, it is better to offer him a QO (which is a lot of money for his risk level) and then wait to see what offers he gets and then tell the fan base he was just way too expensive (like Werth and Rowand).
At least the Phillies get final say to try to match and if not get a possible 1st Round pick.
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Kyle Crick is the piece people want from the Giants
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Hate to break it to you, but Gary Brown isn’t considered a top prospect anymore. He’s very comparable to what you would get from Gillies if he manages to stay healthy and cut all the attitude stuff.
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MLB Scouting Grades* (present/future): Hit: 4/5 | Power: 3/4 | Run: 7/7 | Arm: 5/5 | Field: 6/6 | Overall: 4/5..ranks second on Giants top ten prospects.
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His PCL line is weak this year. .243AVG .728OPS 86K 22BB 11SB 7CS.
He’s not getting on base at a great rate and I have to wonder if he had some leg problems this year because his SBs are down.
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G.Brown could be a guy bought low though. That’s is why prospects are so hard to figure out.
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Watching last night’s Phillies highlights it looks like Pettibone has beefed up his fastball. He hit 95 several times and threw 94 mph as well. If he can maintain his control with that velocity and retain his pitch movement, he may be more effective than had been originally expected.
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That’s the second post I’ve seen the past few days talking about Pettibone’s velocity. Big difference between 91-92 and 94-95. Did you see him reaching 94 beyond the first few innings?
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http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2013_07_02_phimlb_pitmlb_1&mode=box&c_id=phi#gid=2013_07_02_phimlb_pitmlb_1&mode=plays
Velocity tailed off a little after three innings, but the important point is that he has it and it is a lot more velocity than we expected. I’ve seen him hit 96 on occasion. This kid is a big time sleeper and I love his size and demeanor. I’m becoming a big fan.
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Gun at Pittsburgh set to run high for Cole’s benefit.
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That’s great! I didn’t know his velocity was that high. He is much further along than where Kendrick was when he came up. Pettibone needs to stick in the majors. Really interested to see what they have in Morgan and Martin as well.
That’s why I am so interested in cashing in on Kendrick. These guys are close to contributing in the rotation.
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Looking at MLBTraderumors.com, FWIW:
(1) Everyone seems to think Papelbon will be traded and for a good return.
(2) Most people seem to think Lee won’t be dealt.
(3) There seems to be a lot of speculation that Utley and M. Young will be gone, without much discussion about what the likely return will be. As I’ve sort of made clear (understatement) I think the conventional wisdom is wrong on Utley and right on M. Young. (On the Dodgers specifically, the speculation is that their interest is more for next year via free agency. That makes sense to me, unless the Phillies essentially give him away, which they shouldn’t and won’t.)
(4) You don’t see much buzz about other names. I guess the only other veteran (other then D. Young who I suspect no one will touch with a ten foot pole) who might be on the market is Rollins, but you don’t see much speculations about him.
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Re #4 I forgot about Ruiz. You don’t see much speculation on him either. What’s Kratz status? I see a Ruiz trade more likely if Kratz is back. I don’t see much of a return fgor him, but he won’t return a draft pick, probably won’t be back next year, so I could see them trading him. Not sure I feel strongly one way or the other.
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I think there was some speculation on Ruiz to the Yankees. And certainly they could use a reliable catcher. Unfortunately, I don’t think Papelbon will be traded. Amaro would likely see that as blowing up the team because the Phillies don’t seem to have anyone even remotely capable of taking his place. I general think closer are over valued but I do think sabremetrician under value them. Would you really want Bastardo, De Fratus, and Aumonte pitching 30+ additional high leverage innings the remainder of the year?
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Ruiz is a tough case. The 2012 Ruiz is worth a lot to a team in a pennant drive. An AS catcher who can handle pitchers very well is a big add to a team that is weak/so-so at C. The 2013 Ruiz has yet to prove he can play without the Adderall. Three good weeks from him and he’ll have value at the deadline, but I don’t think he brings back a lot today.
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One thing i’m starting to think with Utley is whether he has maybe told Amaro that he doesn’t plan to resign here. If so i can understand why people think he is likely to be traded. Still a trade would have to return a better value than a sandwich pick
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You prior arguments have been sound and reasonable Larry. But nearly every year we see a team act very much unreasonable around the deadline.
(1) Papelbon is an easy one from my perspective. Kick in a few mil and a number of teams would be interested and a number of teams would be willing to move one of their top prospects. What scares me about this scenario is not that the Phils wouldn’t get value in return – but instead, the state of the bullpen next season.
(2) I hope that’s the case re Lee.
(3) Young is number one on my list of most likely to be traded, Utley three (Bastardo two/ Paps four). I continue to contend that Utley’s contract works in our favor, not against, particularly as it applies to West Coast teams. If the Phils give a team such as the Dodgers a window to negotiate then the likelihood of him being traded becomes a near certainty. I get the counter-argument, I just don’t agree. The only thing that keeps Utley in Philly is Utley. I think it’s completely out of the front office’s hands at this point
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We’ll need to agree to disagree on Utley. Otherwise I don’t think we are far apart,except that I don’t get the logic of trading Bastardo.
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Agree on our Utley disagreement. And not that’s its a big deal. This is what this forum is all about.
Re Bastardo – I just don’t think he makes sense for a non-contending Phillies team. He’s arbitration eligible for the 2nd time and I think the front office will aggressively look to move him.
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He makes more sense than Paps. He’s cheaper. He’s fine pitching any late inning.
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What are the rules on “window to negotiate?” That is the only way I see something along the lines you have proposed happening. At that point, obviously it wouldn’t be just a rental. I still don’t see it as at all likely.
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I don’t think there’s any explicit rule, at least not that I’m aware of. I believe it’s subject to the commissioner’s approval though and of course, the offering team would first need to agree.
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Don’t know if anybody has reported it but, Dan Child signed today per his twitter account.
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So happy to see Brown succeeding. What a bright spot on an otherwise dreary season.
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Brown, Lee, Hamels, Utley, Rollins are the only reasons I watch.
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On Utley’s trade value: those who say we’d get little to nothing back are missing the point that when/if he is traded, both Utley AND the team he is traded to could INSIST that he also sign for ’14 thus sure to get such a prior All-Star who is said to have recovered his mojo at the plate and in the field. IF that recovery is believed to be real, then the return SHOULD be better than is said here.
IMO, it would be a giant mistake to hold on to him this season or to re-sign him at all. He does not represent the future of this team; he represents a past glory of play in Philly. With his age and injury expectations, if they obtain something of significant value to aid the absolutely necessary retooling of the team, it is a sine qua non for any kind of near future for this team. Loved his play as well as almost everybody, and like you I don’t know if he will hold up physically, but his trade does represent an opportunity to get on its way to being something other than a second division club.
Waiting is his replacement: Cesar Hernandez. he surely is a different KIND of player: speed, contact, and oba has become his game. He is now 12-13 years younger than Chase. His fielding is said to be better than average if not superior. He is hitting 2nd at LV; a position that reflects his #2 to be behind Revere…and a different approach for the Phils team.
The franchise MUST grow; standing still is not a good idea, no matter how much we love the guy’s Philly history and his current hitting, the continuation of which is difficult to visualize given his recent past history.
Goodbye, thanks many times over, and glad you have helped the team’s future.
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I am a little more comfortable with a lighter hitting second baseman now that Franco seems to have accelerated his arrival. I would only give Utley an incentive laden contract with a base of 7 million per year. I still see Asche as the best case replacement for Utley .
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JM – I suspect Utley would be offended with such an offer and needless to say, he would certainly reject it in my opinion
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No — Asche is not a 2B. That was tried. He is a good 3B.
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Recently read that between Asche and Franco, Joe Jordan said that Asche was tho only one who could play another position and mentioned second base or left field as possibilies.
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I totally agree. Utley may well be good again in 2014, but the Phillies as a team won’t be. He is less likely to still be good in 2015, which is the earliest the Phillies could again be a good team. Utley’s value to the Phillies, if they keep him after the year, is really just as a nostalgia fan favorite to sell some tickets.
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Selling tickets is important!
That aside, really most of the disagreement between most posters (I think Art is an exception to this) is more about the likely return for Utley than about his value going forward. On that point,though, I probably am a bit more optimistic than some. If healthy – a significant if, but the knees seem okay this year, and I find credible the party line that a change in his off season conditioning program is responsible for that – he is still one of the best second basemen in the game, and I think his skill set (again, assuming he stays healthy) is one that so far has, and will continue to, result in a gradual aging curve.
And THAT aside, Hernandez is an important piece of the puzzle also. If he is just a marginal prospect, there really aren’t any good options to Utley on the horizon. Second base could become the same kind of gaping hole that right field is currently. That’s why I am so interested in a serious evaluation of his defense, as opposed to the typical “people say” statements that you see in these comment sections.
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Art, I’m not going to revisit the Utley related issues. I do, however have one serious question for you on Hernandez. What evidence is there that Hernandez’ defense is “better than average if not superior?” “Said” by whom? I’m agnostic on the question, but if there is evidence that his defense is that good, I haven’t seen it. Mind you, I hope it is! If his defense is that good, he is a solid prospect; otherwise, a marginal prospect. Still a downgrade from even a late career Utley, but (a) depending upon the return, trading Utley would go down easier if Hernandez is a good prospect, and (b) Utley may be gone regardless.
Opening this up for others: is there anyone who has seen Hernandez play a lot who can give me a detailed report on his defense?
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So now that Art has jumped on the “LA will give a us a good return for Utley because they will agree to an extension with him before the deal” band wagon started by Steve.
With some significant “buts” which I will get to, I do find this idea intriguing. it has a certain plausibility in that (a) it seems very much to fit the needs and organizational philosophy of the Dodgers, and (b) at the risk of beating a dead horse, it is almost surely the only way we can get a good prospect for him. Or, to restate (b) in a way that won’t reignite the same tired debate, we certainly can get a better return if Utley is more than a rental. Now, even so I wouldn’t say I’m ANXIOUS to trade Utley – losing him would hurt in the short run, maybe a lot, even if we get a decent return, and I’m on record as feeling pretty strongly that resigning him to, say, a 3 year deal (with the third year vesting based on games played) with an AAV around 15 million would be a great move for the team. But even getting a guy like Pederson … looking at the team’s long term health, I’d do that.
Here are the buts: First of all, I ask again: does anyone know definitively what the rule is on this? That aside, you just don’t see these sort of deals. There are exceptions – Halladay and the Phillies spring to mind, but that was different in some respects (off season trade and the deal was done after the trade, at least officially), and that’s the only one I can think of. I have a tendency to be skeptical of any suggestion which depends on something as unusual as an extension folded into the deal.
Apart from that, why would Utley agree to it? Yeah, he comes from SoCal, but he lives in Philly now, year round I believe, and has a family. People assume that he wants to leave Philly, but is there any actual evidence of that? And, even if he does intend to leave, why not test the market? Sure, there are risks involved, but we have to assume that if he wanted to avoid risk, he probably could have signed an extension already with the Phillies.
Anyway, all of this is sheer speculation. People haven’t really weighed in much on this idea and I am curious what people think. Are people dismissing it but just not bothering to say so? Or do people think this is a realistic possibility?
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I just dont understand the Utley talk, if they want to give you nothing for him. offer arb., and get a draft choice, rather than takeing a low a prospect, Which all the people that i have heard thats what they would get for him.
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It is a mistake to think Utley has little value. On the other hand, the right low-A prospect also has a lot of value. You can acquire a special talent in trade when he is in the low-A league, who would never be made available a couple of years later, when he is in AA. As in everything, with greater risk comes greater potential reward, although a guy who has successfully made it through rookie league and is now doing well in low-A is a lot less risky than your typical first-round HS draftee. It’s only 13 or 25 months as a pro, but a bit of a sorting out process has already occurred — weaknesses have been identified and potential strengths are more apparent in actual pro game situations against good competition. Our scout can observe how the guy has done against the best competitors is low-A. That is significant. We lost Singleton and Santana as A-league guys in the Pence trade — they were likely the best talent we’ve lost in any of our trades. Taking an A-level guy can make a lot of sense. Seeing how fast Franco is shooting through our system shoul
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should remind us that a primo A-ball position player isn’t all that far from the bigs.
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While as you know more skeptical than you are about Utley’s trade value, I do agree that, whatever that value is, all else equal, we’re going to get more upside if we take a player in A ball than a major league ready player. (And I’d take the higher upside).
I wonder, though, what will play better with the fans – a major league ready guy like Pederson, who probably is going to be an average regular, or a higher upside guy in A ball.
FWIW, Dave Cameron at Fangraphs in a chat threw out Pederson’s name as possibly the best prospect who might change hands this summer – and specifically suggested that he might be traded for a rental.
I think he’s wrong, but Pederson IMO is not an ABSURD suggestion like some ideas that have been thrown out around here.
Sometimes I am not as clear as I should be about distinguishing between my very firm opinions (e.g., we’re not getting Bogaerts for Kendrick, or even for Papelbon or Lee).and my less firm opinions (e.g. Pederson for Utley, though I would be quite surprised at getting him for Utley as a pure rental).
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Another way of putting the last paragraph is that, while I’m fairly sure many people are over stating Utley’s trade value, I may well also be understating it. The truth could easily be in the middle. And one can add to that the (IMO slim) possibility of some team just flat out overpaying for him).
OTOH, we’re not getting Bogaert and my confidence level on that is quite high.
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Be careful Larry – you almost sounds as if you are warming up to the Joc Pederson possibility. Cameron must be reading my posts (being facetious – hardly taking credit for the Pederson possibility)
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Steve, I AM capable of revising my opinion. I don’t think I’ve revised it MUCH here. If I had to characterize any evolution, I’d say (a) that I am intrigued with the “LA could extend him argument,” while still skeptical that it will happen, and (b) I am MARGINALLY more willing to believe than I was that the Dodgers (they of last year’s trade with Boston) might be unwise enough to to overpay for a rental of Utley.
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roccum – semantics perhaps as I know what you are saying, but FAs can no longer be offered ‘arbitration’ under the new CBA. Instead, they can be made a ‘qualifying offer’ which is a predetermined amount based on average league salary. It is the same dollar amount (>$14mil this season) for any FA who is made a qualifying offer. Just an FYI
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ty steve.
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White Sox), Darwin Barney (Cubs), Mark Ellis (Dodgers)
Utley, with his .279/.348/.510 batting line and plus defense, is the prize of the crop. However, there’s no guarantee that the Phillies will part with a player who has long been one of the faces of the franchise. Any offer will need to exceed the value of a compensatory draft pick, as the Phillies will surely make a qualifying offer to Utley after the season given his play thus far.
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The Utley’s live in S.F. in the off-season.
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There address is apt 2a 1980 market street. san francisco. california
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Okay, quick question. Why the heck do you know that? It’s a little scary!
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Chase lives in San Fransisco during the off season.
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Francisco Cervelli suffered a set back in his rehab. I believe he was scheduled for a minor league assignment next week but his setback will now delay his return until well into August. This news should make a guy like Ruiz more attractive.
I’m honestly not sure what the best move is with respect to Ruiz. If he’s not traded he certainly isn’t going to receive a Q.O. but there’s a reasonable (from both perspectives) two year deal out there. It’s not like he’s going to be aggressively pursued if he hits free agency. Still, if we trade him, we stand to get little in return and it may also lessen the chance of him resigning to a team friendly deal. The best scenario I could think of is that he’s coupled with a player such as MYoung and we get a better return as a result.
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I hate bill giles, The thing no one is really looking at is, what will this ownership do with howard, If he cant play a game after running hard from first to home, with his knees hurting, and is not dependable, this ownership has to bite the bullet and eat a large portion of his contract, he is a dh. I know its not my money,but they made the mistake of giving him that contract. They should show us fans that they will do what ever it takes to win, eat as much as you have to and move him to a american league team, dont care what they get back in prospect,
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If that’s what you are willing to do, then DL him and let him recover, then use him as a PH or part of a platoon when healthy. If you are going to pay ‘however much of his salary it takes’ to give him away for no return, then what is the advantage of trading him. He is a sunk cost. That sunk cost doesn’t go away because you pay his full salary for him to DH in the American League.
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Michael Young has a no trade clause still so that is a significant hurdle to trading him and more likely makes the trade ‘public’ which Amaro hates. But he should absolutely be traded for the best offerred deal and sooner if that helps the prospects/money involved. Frandsen and Asche or even Fields for rest of year.
Delmon Young should also be traded for best offer (bag of balls). Mayberry/Nix platoon or even Ruf/Castro/Gillies.
Papelbon trade is much trickier. Phillies have no quality in the bullpen behind him. At least with Adams (healthy) there was one reliable option. It will be a major ‘sell’ and could have significant impact both on the field and off it. If Phillies could at least have one of their bullpen guys step up in the short term and appear like a closer guy that would help in the clubhouse. I figure this veteran group and Charlie are not going to want to be sellers.
Utley should remain, get QO, and Phillies can see if they want to match his offers.
Lee should remain. Aces are very hard to acquire.
Ruiz should be signed to a cheap extension if possible: 2yrs $6M and serve as a possible backup. Pitching staff is stll key to Phillies and Ruiz is big part of that.
Rollins should only be traded if it is an overpay. Still good defensively and hiting decent for SS with speed as well.
What could Phillies get for Hamels?
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Hamels still has plenty of value. I am concerned about trading Papelbon, only because I have no faith in the front office when it comes to signing relief pitchers. Fields and Castro would mean that Ruben has given up on the season. Delmon is quietly hitting above .270 which isn’t all that bad. Any word on those bonuses for keeping his weight down?
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The other problem with trading Hamels – I mean, it almost doesn’t matter, because I think Hamels and Brown are probably the two guys currently on the major league roster that you just don’t trade for anything (anything realistic, anyway) – is that his value is probably a bit down because of his mediocre first half. Don’t sell low.
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This is just thrown together, and is more a projection of what the top 10 will be at the end of the season than a statement of what is is now, AND is in not particular order.
Franco
Biddle
Cozens
Crawford
Knapp
Sandberg
Asche
Quinn
Tocci
Morgan
I said in no particular order but the top 2 are, obviously, the top 2,
I find it encouraging that Watson, Martin, Joseph, Hernandez, Z. Green and Dugan. are NOT in the top 10. Joseph, while falling some, would still be top 10 but for the new guys and Cozen. Martin and Watson fall out ONLY because of that. Hernandez, Green and Dugan all are “stock up” but still can’t quite crack the top 10. Those 6 probably round out the top 16. Pettibone graduates. I used Matt’s list from the beginning of the year as a starting point.
And there are still a bunch of very interesting players not named. I am convinced the system overall is much improved.
Thoughts?
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Maybe the prospect most likely to be on the 25 man on day one next year isn’t even named by me. Can anyone guess who I mean? 🙂 (Not Aumont who I consider graduated.)
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Well, if it’s a reliever it could be a number of players but Robles immediately comes to mind. As a starter, I’d guess Rosin. Can’t really think of a position player though
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Rupp. Not as the regular catcher, but either backing up Kratz or Ruiz.
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I’d add Perkins to the bunch sitting just outside our Top 10. Nice list though and I agree, quite encouraging. We’re starting to see some depth developing even if we’re lacking of a true 5-star type.
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People froze in the snow in Valley Forge so centuries later speech could be censored on baseball discussion boards.
.
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I don’t think you understand freedom of speech here. This is not public forum, I cannot stop you from posting your views on the Internet or your own site, but this site is owned and operated by Gregg and he says what the content may be. Others of us try to keep this a place for civil discussion, something you don’t want to do. Instead you would rather to continue to yell louder until someone gives you the attention you crave
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Matt. I read and posted on draft tracker about a draft pick. who it said is committed to phillies, Is it possible he signed and we arent being told about it, found it on a scout site. where it said college you will see it says committed to phillies
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Nice Carlos Tocci interview courtesy of Phoulballz
http://www.phoulballz.com/2013/07/phoulballz-interview-phillies-of.html
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So someone made a mildly positive comment about D. Young’s play recently, though I can’t find the comment.
Here’s the thing about D. Young, even setting aside the arguable negative clubhouse influence and the fact that he has no future with the club (with any club?). His hitting has actually been (for him) decent. Given the gaping hole in RF, as an interim option, if he could maintain his hitting (I doubt he can, but that’s a separate issue), and if he was an otherwise average player, he would be … just okay. Not great, but you could live with that given the (lack of) options.
He is not an otherwise average player, or even close to one, If you buy advanced metrics, and in this case I do, as they confirm subjective impressions, he is on the season a combined 11.1 runs below average fielding and base running. That is, in 1/3 of a season, truly awful. Projected over a full season that’s .negative 34 runs, or about 3.4 wins. Combine that with the hitting, decent on a Delmon Young curve, and you have a player who, over a full season, would be about 2 wins below replacement.
Yuch.
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“he is on the season a combined 11.1 runs below average fielding and base running”
I literally laughed out loud after reading the above line. Does anyone not realize how putrid that is?
Say what you will about the initial signing but there’s truly no place for DYoung on this team after the deadline. If the deadline doesn’t produce an OF option, I would honestly rather see Ruf in Left even if it means sliding DBrown to right which is a position Dom really needs to grow comfortable with anyway.
If not Ruf, Gillies or Castro, while poor options in themselves, would be better than seeing DYoung getting regular ABs in August. Hell, and I can’t believe I’m going to say this, I’d rather see DMitchell manning right field
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By the metrics….Delmom Young would have been suited better as a first baseman for this club then the current guy.
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Oh, man, that’s close enough to the truth to be really depressing.
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This is likely an artifact of sample size, but I think it’s kind of amazing that Frandsen is, per wRC+, tied with Brown for the second best Phillies hitter (on a rate basis) (wRC+ of 135). The really remarkable part of this is that, unlike last season when Frandsen batted .338 and had a wRC+ of 127, he has not had above average BIP luck. One reason what first appears to be a solid but pedestrian line grades out so well are seven HBP.
I’m NOT projecting Frandsen to keep this up, but nothing about his performance leaps out as necessarily unsustainable. He has improved his BB rate a lot, and his ISO somewhat, while maintaining an excellent K rate.
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I don’t want to overstate this by any means. Steamer projects Frandsen to hit .280/326/.391 the rest of the way, ZIPs a little worse. And I wouldn’t bet that they are wrong. I’m not saying that Frandsen is more than a bench guy going forward. But Frandsen IS a guy who looked like a real prospect at one time, then missed 2008 because of a ruptured Achilles tendon. This COULD (low % chance, but a chance) be a guy who has an injury detour but finds himself in his 30s.
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Favorable stats for Frandsen and things to like, though prefer his LD% of 16% be a little hire to come closer the the league average. incidentally, Domo’s LD% is 23, above league average.
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Thought I would attempt a non-biased account of the main difference in thought process between some of the modern stat guys on the site and the non-stat guys in terms of player evaluation (okay, I am avoiding work on a Friday, so sue me). Two parts to this, general (applies to major leaguers as well) and prospect specific.
Generally:
(1) Stat guys place greater weight on OBP. As a practical matter, this often reduces to differences of opinion regarding BB rates, but fundamentally the difference is that stat guys believe that OBP is about 1.8 times as important as SLG.
(2) Stat guys are more skeptical of high BA that isn’t supported by fundamentals.
(3) Stat guys are more skeptical of extreme performances, or performances that depart from a player’s prior performance, when the sample size is small.
(4) Non-stat guys have a more binary view of base running. A fast player gets a bonus, a real slow guy gets a penalty.
(5) Ditto for defense. This ends up meaning that really bad defenders are sometimes penalized less by non-stat guys than by stat guys.
(6) Also regarding defense, stat guys probably put more weight on range than do non-stat guys, and less weight on error rates.
(7) Stat guys probably evaluate aging curves differently. Usually that means expecting bigger/faster declines, but, as with defense and base running, there is more of a tendency for non stat guys towards more binary thinking, i.e., put either very little weight or a lot of weight on a player’s age.
(8) Stat guys weigh positional differences differently. Usually this tends to be a matter of placing more weight on it, though again the “binary” thinking comes in, as some non-stat guys will sometimes get very enthusiastic about a slick fielding middle infielder regardless of his hitting skills.
Prospects:
(1) Stat guys place more weight on age/level.
(2) Stat guys tend to discount minor league stats to a greater extent than non-stat guys because of the level of competition.
I really tried to state these in neutral terms, though my leanings are well known. Note what I DIN’T put here – reliance on advance stats or scouting. At the end of the day, I think advanced stats, while valuable, are not determination. .And IMO stat guys tend to put at least as much weight on scouting as the typical non-advanced stat guy.
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How about this for another difference:
Stat guys have to come to the realization that from every draft….maybe only two or three become successful/impact MLB players, whatever successful means. And that is considered a successful draft.
Whereas, the non-stat guys believe and are hopeful that every one of the top ten picks will make it to the MLB as impact players..
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I never get a chance to go to the minor league games. and I know a lot of the people on here do, reading about guys velocity, my question is this. When people saw pettibone did he throw as hard as he has in the big legues, and same with j.c. they both throw harding , than I believe people was stated, are the guns in the minors accurate to anyones knowledge??
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As someone who, while not wanting the team to be blown up, wants the team to at least explore some trades, and specifically wants to see Papelbon traded if we can get a good prospect for him, I found this very interesting: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/nl-east-notes-phillies-parnell-hudson-nationals.html.
IMO if Amaro errs he will err in the direction of being too conservative in terms of trading veterans, or even in the direction of buying rather than selling, rather then erring in the opposite direction. That give me some mixed feelings about the current home stand.
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I’m not sure the club’s record on this homestand is going to make a difference either way. If they go something like 8-2 and pick up 3-4 games in the division, they might hang onto Papelbon, but if they can get a Castellanos-level return for him (which I”m not sure I believe, but seems to be believed in circles beyond this site), I think they’d trade him anyway. Young, too, would likely be gone, since a platoon of Frandsen and Asche would be just as effective in all likelihood.
As for everybody else … I don’t expect Lee or Utley to be traded even if they lose the next nine. Amaro recognizes the value of ace pitching, and isn’t going to give one up when he’s under contract for two more years beyond this one. Utley’s also not likely to get a return that matches his presence in the lineup for ticket buyers the remainder of the season and a comp pick.
Regardless of what happens, I think you can bank on Papelbon and M. Young being the only two players traded out of Philly this month.
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“I think you can bank on Papelbon and M. Young being the only two players traded out of Philly this month.”
That’s a strong statement Mike. Good luck with that
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I don’t think it’s as big a stretch as you might think. There is a strong argument against trading Utley or Ruiz based upon the value you’d get from either rejecting a qualifying offer and signing elsewhere via free agency. Howard isn’t going anywhere. You could maybe get a bag of balls for Delmon Young, but what’s the point when he’s finally starting to contribute something? Nobody’s going to give up anything of value for Jimmy. As for Lee, I just don’t believe the organization is looking at next season as a year of non-contention, and unless someone offers Profar, Taveras, or some other package of that level and quality, they’re not going to do it.
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We’ve spent a lot of time on the “should they” question for these deals, less on the “would they” question. My guess is that the front office is even less likely to pull the trigger on these kinds of deals than I would be. Obviously all any of us can do is speculate, but there is I think some basis for the speculation.
On Utley in particular, as I have said, I don’t think they will want the grief of the fan reaction to trading him unless they get an overwhelming offer. And as someone else said, they won’t want to saddle a guy like Pederson, likely “only” an average regular, with the burden of being the guy that they traded Utley for. And if Ultey signs elsewhere, they get a high draft pick. From management’s perspective, not trading him is the safe thing to do, and this front office always takes what is perceived (sometimes wrongly) to be the safe choice.
Finally, IF the rumored Papelbon deal goes down, it will also have an effect on a possible Utley deal. Of course the specific Pederson proposal goes out the window if we get Castellanos for Paplebon. Maybe more to the point, Amaro can say he’s doing something to get younger and to fill a hole in the lineup, further justifying in his own mind not trading Utley.
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I’ll throw a number out there. Seven. Seven losses or more on this current home stand and we become clear sellers. Anything else leaves us little more to go by than when the home stand began. With one win already accounted for, I suspect we’ll get at least 4 wins and the decision to buy or sell lingers into the final week of July
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Drats…4-6 or 5-5-on this pre-All-Star homestand is limbo…..Ruben apparently needs ‘black and white’ scenarios to go ahead and make decisive decisions. When he encounter the ‘gray’ area, I believe paralysis takes hold. He is not a risk taker by no means.
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risk-taker how though? Are you suggesting they should be buyers today?
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No way buyers……sellers for me. There are no ‘rings’ in the foreeable future with this cast of players, primarilly due to the aging curve coming fast for the core. And of course, RHoward’s futility at the plate and in the field…for the next 5 years.
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I guess what I’m saying Steve is that even if they are clear sellers I don’t think they move Utley. I think Amaro’s idea of being a seller is to trade the Youngs and maybe Ruiz for scraps, and try to get a good prospect for Papelbon.
Just saying how I think it is, not how it should be. Utley and Lee go only if there is a deal on the table for top 25 prospects (and a second top 50 for Lee). Rollins would go for a top 50 prospect. Howard is obviously a special case. Not saying that we’ll get those kind of offers, which is why I don’t think they get traded.
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Got it. And I should say that I’m certainly not pulling for Utley to be traded and I’ll hardly complain if he’s around after the deadline.
In some, but not all of my earlier posts on the topic, I implied that Utley’s future was somewhat out of the hands of the front-office. They would have certainly approached him about an extension by now (provided they were even interested) and even if they offered only a team-friendly version they should have some idea of what his stance is. And even then, Utley’s stance alone cannot lead the front-office to decide one way or another either as they’ll still need to obtain more value than an impending comp pick in 2014 (in other posts I implied that they could – but that’s a separate discussion), else they simply retain him and make him a Q.O. while avoiding being the ‘bad guy’. So there’s at least two scenarios there that would make a trade unlikely.
My entire opinion though, even as far as thinking that I would not be surprised to see Utley traded, is based on the notion that Utley, and for the most part, Utley alone, will influence the Phils decision to move him.
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I think RAJ and owners are afraid that they won’t be able to sell nearly as many tickets without Utley, Rollins, and Lee. After two bad seasons, that’s a very real business concern.
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Allentown, really hope your wrong on that statement, Ticket sales shouldnt stop you from doing the right thing, that may hurt in short time,to better the team in long run. I am really stumped, on why this organization cant develop relief pitchers, the draft with schwimmer, i thought was the draft to get some college type relief pitchers for the big club, somewhere in there evaluation of relivers there is a problem. Savery, Aumont, Diekmann. just arent doing any good for this team. and Defratus is bad too. thought out of all of them defratus would be really good, seem to be wrong on that one. Deikman has to me great stuff, but no control
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It is the owners who are dictating the key player moves not Amaro or any past GM’s. Look at the history of the GM’s from 1983 when Giles group bought the team: Paul Owens, Lee Thomas, Ed Wade and RAJ(missed some I know) they wanted to rebuild earlier but ownership prevented that. Out of all the GM’s only Gillick had free reign of the roster but even he had financial restraints. These guys were not all dummies but just doing their job for the owners just like most of us do for our employers. So blame the owners for holding on to star players way too long not the GM’s. As a business the Phillies have done very well in the last decade whether we like it or not.
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Ruf promoted – Howard to DL
Timing couldn’t have been better.
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/7195/darin-ruf
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Ruf to play first?
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Maybe Utley can play first and bring up Cesar Hernandez if a good return on an Utley trade can not be realized. Then give him a Qualifying Offer this winter to at least get a possible first round pick in 2014. Ruff can alternate between 1B and LF once Delmon Young is traded away.
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Take that to box score recap
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dom brown and cliff lee made the all-star team. congrats to dom!
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So Howard started against a lefty and is now unable to start against a righty. Cholly is one stupid manager. Mayberry also hits righties better than Nix and plays a better 1B and runs better and will be more likely to be here next year.
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Yet another example of the difference between prospects and big leaguers:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/indians-designate-carlos-carrasco-for-assignment.html
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I laughed.
http://www.theonion.com/articles/panicked-sabermetricians-forced-to-rethink-entire,33047/
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Darin Ruf, make yourself at home.
http://the700level.com/top-posts/ryan-howard-needs-surgery-for-torn-meniscus-could-miss-6-8-weeks/
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