Maikel Franco cannot be stopped – 3-5 with a HR and he’s now OPSing 1.309 in his first ~50 AA PAs. Nice outings from Martin and Colvin. Martin again got by without throwing a lot of strikes, 56/100 or 56% (#math), while Colvin was around 64%. Also an effective spot-start from Lakewood’s Jeb Stefan, going 5, allowing 1R on 3H and 1BB with 5Ks. His peripherals look pretty good out of the pen this year, (albeit as a 23-year-old in low-A), with 17BB (3.5/9) and 42Ks (just shy of 9/9), in 43.1 relief IP, and 4HR allowed, which rates out high (0.83/9), but is in a pretty small sample to look at HR rates. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him get moved up to the CLR bullpen sometime soon.
Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.
http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130630
Phuture Phillies 
I’d order my Franco jersey right now if I was confident in which number he’ll wear.
Nice game from Tocci after a few O’fers: 2-3 with a double. I’m really looking forward to see what he does in a repeat at Lakewood next season, particularly if he keeps on the weights.
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Andrew Knapp sporting a 155 WRC+ with a 13% BB rate. I think he gets double jumped to Clearwater next season.
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He fits the criteria to be 2x jumped.. Collegiate with promise.
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Asche has been rock solid. OPS at .798 now, WRC 115. Hope to see him in Philly soon.
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Wow. A whole 115 RC+ in Triple A. That probably equals a 90 OPS in the majors.
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Yeah, but the point with Asche is that he continues to improve regularly and significantly, just as he has his entire minor league career. If the Phils trade Young, Frandsen and Asche can easily man third without any downgrade of performance. In fact, right now, Frandsen by himself is probably a notably better player than Michael Young. What drvies me crazy about the Phillies is that they often have a really hard time judging the players that are right in front of their eyes (at least with position players – they are better with pitchers).
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Exactly,
Asche was Double Jumped last year and did not miss a beat.
Raised to AAA this year, and after a slow start after promotion is doing just fine.
Perhaps not a Future MVP, but quite possibly a solid 3B.
Of Course Franco will likely be the Long-Term Solution, but if Asche keeps on progressing as he has been, he should bring a nice return as there is a shortage of good 3B around the league.
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Frandsen is a utility player plain and simple, nothing more, nothing less. These guys are a dime a dozen. He barely makes a 25 man roster. Kind of reminds me of those backup quarterbacks, everyone wants them to play, and the more they play, the less effective they are. Young is a far better offensive player, while Frandsen may be a slightly better defensive player.
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We’re not comparing the two players in 2000, we’re comparing them NOW. And, looking at PERFORMANCE, Frandsen is better than M. Young pretty much across the board, whether we look at 20012 or 2013 or both. There is no metric of performance in those years where Young comes out meaningfully better, and several metrics where Frandsen comes out better.
Now MAYBE that’s a function of sample size. I do think there’s a decent possibility that Frandsen is still playing over his head; 311 PA of data doesn’t prove otherwise. But I think there’s PLENTY of evidence now that Young has suffered major and permanent age related decline. To the point that Frandsen, whatever his limitations are, is now a better player.
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Anybody put any credence in Bleacher?
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1689851-stock-up-stock-down-for-philadelphia-phillies-top-10-prospects-for-week-13?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=philadelphia-phillies
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Franco at 8? I’m going to say no.
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It is the BA pre-season rankings
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None at all, I read their articles because I have some bit of delusion I might find a Joe Jordan or scout quote I haven’t seen before.
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No, never. That article is particularly awful. Tocci’s stock is down? Franco is #9? I legitimately think every commenter on this website could put together a better list than that garbage.
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i put more credence in the clearwater revival. Which is also funny because of Clearwater…
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put me in coach…
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Not a lot but it can be entertaining reading.
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you guys got to stop reading Bleacher Report
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Bleacher should be taken with a grain of salt.
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i want Eloy Jimenez and no one has mention anything about him
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If I’m not mistaken, his bonus is expected to be higher than the Phillies entire allotment.
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I’m very encouraged by Asche. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of years between him and Franco. I know he struggled at second so would a corner outfield position be out of the question?
Also, bummer we have to wait til August to sign Luis Encarnacian. Hopefully the wait will be worth it.
Viva la Franco
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He’s doing about as well as expected, but is an .800 OPS bat in AAA going to cut it in the outfield on a major league team? His future is looking to be trade bait, and he’s the most attractive as a 3rd baseman.
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Doesn’t matter. Value is value whether playing for this team or as a trade piece.
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It’s been discussed, but th egeneral consensus (which I agree with) is that becuase Asche’s bat won’t profile as well in a corner OF spot, he would probably never prfile above an average corner OF. If that’s the case, he will likely be worth more in a trade when Franco arrives that he would be in the OF.
But who knows. If Asche cmes to the majors and is able to improve his power numbers a bit, it might be worth a shot in 2 years.
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I still hold out hope that with his work ethic he may be able to play 2B again at some point.
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Not everyone is Chase Utley.
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Clearly, but its Asche has done nothing but improve at every stop after slow beginnings, this shows a lot.
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I’m with you on hoping Asche can play second. An infield with Franco at third and Asche at second gives me hope and is the only thing that would allow me to entertain trading Utley.
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.834 OPS since April 18 in AAA. He turned 23 yesterday. He’s 5 months older than Wil Myers.
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This is not a knock on biddle but I Don’t understand why people still have biddle as our #1 prospect. He is a very good prospect and projects as a solid #3 starter on a 1st division club. Franco is looking like a middle of the order run producer who has a chance to be a fixture @ 3b till 2025 with 5 or 6 all star games within those years. I know Biddle is the golden boy cause he was a 1st Rd pick and is a local kid but let’s be honest with our selves. Franco is our #1 prospect and it ain’t close. Spoke to a Scout who preferred franco over Sano. Franco will stick @ 3b. Sano strikes out a lot and may be like Pedro Alvarez where franco can be beltre.
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I dont think anyone has Biddle ahead of Franco at this point.
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That’s not true, there are several commenters on here as recently as a few days ago said they still had Biddle #1, but I’ll let them defend their position because I don’t agree 🙂
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Franco’s probably passing him at this point, but let’s not forget that stretch last month when Biddle struck out something like 25 batters in two games without giving up a run. That’s his upside when he’s controlling his pitches. His top prospect status is earned, not bestowed based upon his draft position and local roots.
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While it is earned, It was only 2 starts… and in my opinion displayed his upside. He’s going to have to do that with more regularity to recapture the number 1 slot in my opinion. Biddle has the highest floor of any prospect in our system by a large margin, but his ceiling isn’t what Franco’s is, or even remarkably close. Could you see Biddle in 4 All-Star games over 10 years?
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I agree and have Franco as my No. 1. I just don’t agree with the suggestion that Biddle is considered a top prospect based upon his draft position, etc. He has performed at every level, and has shown flashes of ace potential.
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Yeah, that was a bit off base, it’s not his bonus or his draft position that contribute to his value… under that theory, Anthony Hewitt would be our best position player prospect….
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People got a little over excited with Biddle’s dominant (but short lived) stretch earlier in the season. But assuming he resolves some of the command issues, he is still an excellant prospect and clearly #2 in the organization.
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I think Biddle is being under valued now. He is a lefty starting pitcher who throws low 90’s with mid 90’s flashes while also being in a spot where if he just got a little more consistency could move from 3 possible 2, to a 2 possible 1. I am loving what franco is doing but we might want to avoid being so quickly reactionary to prospect performance. That being said, i am finding it harder to argue biddle as 1 with what franco is doing so there is no real problem if he jumps to 1 on peoples lists. The best part is franco is stealing the 1 spot as apposed to biddle losing the spot from bad performance.
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Jason Parks from BP keeps beating the ‘long swing’ drum for Franco. Says he’s not sold the bat will work in the majors.
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Same thing from BA on their podcast this week. It is not a conventional swing so on some level he is going to have to prove that it works against top competition. The rest of the skill set is good enough that he can still hit very well in the minors without it exposing weaknesses. Think of it similarly to Brown’s swing when he was coming up, different issue but still something that won’t be a problem until the major leagues.
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To me AA pitching is not significantly worse than the Majors. If there was a hole there, he would not be sporting 1 strikeout in 11 games. The proof is in the pudding and the split opinion on whether he’ll struggle against better pitching ultimately doesn’t matter if he continues raking.
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There is a gigantic difference between AA and major league pitching. AA pitchers usually have either stuff or the knowledge how to use it. Major league pitchers have both. Right now Jesse Biddle is the only pitcher on the AA team who would stand a chance in the majors right now and he would likely pitch like a #5 starter. There are probably only 2-3 pitchers in all of AA who could consistently exploit a weakness on a talented hitter like Franco.
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Very true. Many guys in AA have the “stuff”, but not the command, particulalry with the offspeed stuff that could exploit a possible swing flaw. Though I strongly question the seriousness of the “flaw” in Franco’s swing
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The other big difference between AA and the majors is what the pitchers are working on. In AA a pitcher is usually still working on something-maybe it’s improving his command or developing a third pitch. Either way the pitchers focus is his craft. In the majors the pitchers focus is getting batters out. The major league pitcher has access to scouting that the AA pitcher either doesn’t have or doesn’t care about (because he is working on his craft). The Major league pitcher knows if you have a hole in your swing- be it premium velocity inside or breaking balls away.
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Someone needs to tell Puig that. AA pitchers were much more successful against him.
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Maybe that isn’t a serious comment but Puig hasn’t even been around league yet, and has only been stateside for half a season. Pitchers will adjust to him. The question becomes when they do will he adjust to him.
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I’ve heard a lot more comparisons to Goldschmidt’s swing, not any to Brown’s The same one that everyone had issues with and said he’d have to change to make it in the majors.
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I find that comment extremely frustrating.. I’ve heard far too many scouting reports complimenting his swing. The scouts can’t have it both ways, either his swing is outstanding or shitty… This is a such thing as absolute truth, and clearly the scouting community is incapable of attaining such a level of enlightenment with regards to Franco.
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All big leaguers have weaknesses, the good ones find ways to compensate. some good big league hitters have longer swings, so I have heard just about enough from that guy
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And that’s the rub, it will be important to see how Franco adjusts when big league pitching takes advantage of his weaknesses.
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Just thinking outside the box, but maybe the best route for Asche is to package him with another guy to get a stud prospective back in the event the major league guy isn’t enough.
For an example, Papelbon and Asche for Castellanos.
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It’s funny that you mistakenly used the pseudo-word “prospective”, since Papelbon and Asche for Castellanos shows a tremendous lack of “perspective”.
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Last thing we need to be doing right now is trading young near major-league caliber players. Let Asche prove himself in the majors. If he holds his own – his trade value will be that much higher when Franco is ready and we can’t find another position for Asche.
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If the Tigers were willing to deal Castellanos for Asche and Papelbon, and Amaro DIDN’T pull the trigger, he should be run out of town. Papelbon’s contract alone is ridiculous enough to get laughed off that phone call.
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are you guys on drugs? Pap + Asche for Castellanos? No friggin way the Phillies do that deal. If Pap is traded, the haul will be Castellanos + another guy for Pap.
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Castellanos and Verlander for Pap and Pettibone, who says no?!
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Why we would want or need to add Asche to that deal?
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No just straight up Papelbon for Castellanos. Agree to pay most, if not all of Papelbons remaing salary. Sounds crazy, but you’d figure we’d spend atleast that much on an OF anyway. But with this trade we’d get a right handed outfielder who could hit in the 3spot and hit roughly .300 with some power. Now I think it’s worth it. Him in LF, Revere in CF and move Brown back to RF. No need to include Asche in such a deal. Detroit doesn’t needa 3B prospect that close to the show anyway. If anything throw in a Bullpen guy from AA maybe
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You have to be trolling right now. Nobody would ever do that deal. EVER.
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With the state of the Tigers and their need for a sure thing closer. The fact that their owner is like 85 years old and wants a championship and the amount of elite closers on the market being 1(that being Papelbon) I’m pretty sure the Phillies are dealing with a position of strength and not the other way around. I could see paying a little salary. Perhaps the rest of this season or yearly (knocking Papelbon down to a 10m/11m a year contract)… but that alone should go for Castellanos or something equiv.
If the Phillies were to pay *ALL* of Papelbon’s salary that should bring in a Castellanos + their #2 + another top 4/5 prospect.
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It was just a general thought – doesn’t have to be that deal, but I think you get my drift.
I guess I don’t get the hesitation in letting Asche go.. quite frankly, I think he’s a guy that we need to sell high on. Call it a gut feeling, but I think his ceiling is an average MLB 3B – nothing to hang onto, and some teams might value him more. I’d rather this system get a little more top heavy in terms of BA top 50 prospects than having a bunch of quarters in the system.
Of course, if you can get Castellanos for Pap straight up, of course you do it. I just don’t think it will be enough (I’m also fine with throwing in a few bucks in place of Asche as well)
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If he Tigers get real desperate before the trade deadline I can see them dealing Castellanos. And if other teams get invovled it only helps our bargaining power. We might be able to pull this off.
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Adding on to Patrick’s comment – in a vacuum, the deal doesn’t make sense for the Tigers, but don’t underestimate the premium that teams will pay to put them over the top to win a ring. Getting Papelbon does that for them.
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In any state of being, it doesn’t make sense for the Tigers. Explain to me how Papelbon is an upgrade on Joaquin Benoit.
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On a pure numbers (minus saves), you’re right. If I were the Tigers GM, I’m not sure if I’d be comfortable turning the keys over in the postseason to a guy who’s never really closed games before (except for the one-off).
You’re right though, maybe it works out for him closing games for the rest of the year. I’m just not so sure I’d bet on it – given how good that team is otherwise.
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I think closer are over-rated, but really? The one thing you want most in a closer is confidence that he can do the job. You want some one with a track record both long and recent.Other than a bad week Paps has been the second most effective closer for more than half a decade. Even with his decrease in speed and K%. Benoit is a 35 year old with no closing experience. Not someone who inspires confidence.
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So you trade your top prospect, who is a seemingly can’t-miss 3B who’s hitting above his head as one of the youngest players at his level, for the possible inspiration of confidence? Stop, because you’re starting to sound like Ruben Amaro.
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That’s the great thing about baseball, we’ll have to see how it plays out on the field.
Look, I think your argument has a lot of merit, I really do. It’s kind of disappointing that you have to throw insults into the conversation and can’t at least see the other side of the argument. What makes sports debating fun is when both people can argue but respect the other side of it.
I think we’ll just have to agree to disagree on this one. But I will say this – if he’s my GM, and I’m the owner, and Benoit blows a few games in the post-season, he’s gone tomorrow. I’d want him to sell out for a ring, you don’t know how many of them are going to come along.
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I’m trying to be realistic. They aren’t insults, I’m trying to underline the disconnect using humor. Castellanos is a stud prospect. Papelbon is an overpaid, overhyped closer. Asche is maybe a ML average 3B or 2B, nothing more. We aren’t getting Castellanos. Something real would be Utley to Kansas City, which really could get us a haul of their top 3 guys. If we trade Pap to Detroit, we eat half the contract and maybe get someone in their top 10 and a PTBNL. Sorry if my attempts at humor read as insult, but I just wanted to try and help reign in the talk a bit. We don’t have enough in our organization to net a guy like Catellanos outside of Lee and Utley, and Lee is a big problem given his contract. Amaro has dug us into a massive hole, basically.
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I wasn’t insulted and I don’t even think that the Tigers definitely trade Castellanos for a Papelbon. It was the assertion that Benoit is a better closer option than Papelbon that I thought was objectionable.
Wait, Utley brings back KC’s top 3 prospects? And I’m crazy?
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Considering that Starling and Zimmer have had very lackluster campaigns and Wil Myers is already in the bigs? Yeah, I’d say it’s not really crazy at all.
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Utley to KC would get us one prospect in the 11 to 20 range (of their system), one on the 21 to 30 range, and one not in their top 30.
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Adding on to my last reply, that’s the whole point of adding Asche to the deal (I think it would be needed – minus the cash of course).
If I’m the Tigers GM, I say “OK, I know I’m giving up a better 3B prospect, but if I get a 3B prospect back who’s potentially 75% of the guy I’m giving up, I can live with it”
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There is no such thing as a can’t miss prospect. For a shot at a championship, yes you trade a prospect. Any Phillies fan who was alive in ’93 should know the importance of a closer you can be confident in. What Ruben might to is trade histop 2 prospects. Oh and please tell me who this can’t miss 3B is because because I am sure the Tigers didn’t move Castellanos to LF to improve his value.
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They have this guy named Miguel Cabrera at 3rd. You may have heard of him somewhere. Swings a decent stick.
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Cabrerra is a, lets be generous and say, below average at 3B. If Castellanos was a better at 3B. It would be the Cabrerra moving off of the hot corner. Heck that would take a lot of wear off his body as he enters his 30s.
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They’ve got this guy named Prince at 1st. Castellanos will eventually move back to 3rd, once the big league roster warrants it. However, he’s got to play LF if he’s going to be part of the team anytime in the next 3 years.
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They’ve also got a 34-year-old DH with a .627 OPS (Victor Martinez). If you don’t think the Tigers would be willing to put Castellanos at third and plug Cabrera into the DH, you’re kidding yourself.
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He means they don’t need Asche.
Two points about throwing Asche in such a deal. One, he is not as good a prospect as Castellanos, but Castellanos isn’t enough better to justify Asche AND Papelbon. Secondly, and this applies more generally to any proposed deal involving Asche, he a guy who arguably is under rated by scouts and the conventional wisdom. Prospects like that should not be traded.
IMO either they are foolish enough to do the deal straight up for Papelbon (unlikely), or won’t trade Castellanos at all (more likely).
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No, he was saying that I was wrong in saying Castellanos is leftfielder not a thirdbaseman. In the end Castellanos could play 3B if you really needed it, but he will never be a regular there for the Tigers (or the Phillies).
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he projects as a 20 hr outfielder who could hit near 300 not a cant miss 3rd baseman. Unless they are planning on a position switch , and stranger things have been done. dare I say zach wheeler for beltran again
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It is interesting to consider Castellanos and Asche. I think the general consensus is that Asche projects to hit between .270-.300 with 15-20 HR. Castellanos’ and Asche’s numbers have been really close in the minors in terms of ISO, LD%, GB%, K% (note: Asche’s K% is significantly higher this year, Castellanos were higher the last few years). And people can’t image Asche in LF.
The other side of this argument, which is quite important, is that Castellano is a year and a half younger and has a bigger body (6’4″ 195 lbs v. 6’1″ 180 lbs)
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You are right not a whole lot difference in stats , I guess the size automatically means he could be a bigger power hitter
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haven’t you learned by now that there is no such thing as a “can’t miss prospect.” Take a look at Jason Heyward. Look at the struggles he is having even after several years. And he was rated much higher than Castellanos. That’s why prospects aren’t valued as much by MLB teams as by fans. Because they often don’t pan out.
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Heyward isn’t the best example. He’s 23 (Asche’s age) and has been a 6 win player twice already. But yeah, the point stands, just look at any prospect from the Mariners.
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Tigers throw in Bruce Rondon may be worth it.
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Mitch Walding’s got 10 walks and 6 ks in his last 25 PAs. He’s turning into Larry Greene. Get those two away from each other.
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Larry Greene is hitting well above Walding the past month.
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Franco will be a top 20 prospect in baseball after this season
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No he won’t but top 50 is realistic. He will cool off at some point, he won’t hit 400 in AA with 20 homers in half a season (it just feels like that now).
And yes, I would trade Pap for Castellanos and another player (not Pap + Asche for Cast.) and eat some of the money. Unfortunately, its time to look to the future and send Young and Pap away for prospects. Utley and Lee are the tougher decisions for me, as is Chooch.
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I want to trade Young now (Yankees and Red Sox bidding war? Gary Sanchez??) and let Asche (and Frandsen) play so we can see if he can hold the position next year. RAJ needs to realize that this season is cooked and use the rest of it to find out about next season. At this rate, Franco will be in spring training also getting ready for late 2014…
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He’s already ranked in the 40’s, so what you’re saying is… no matter how Franco does in AA he won’t continue to ascend in the standings. Got it.
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He was ranked in the 40’s by BP. It’s still to be seen where BA will rank him.
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Pap I trade for a top prospect. If I have to throw in $6M to pay Pap’s salary for the rest of 2013, I do so, provided I get a top prospect in return.
I don’t trade Lee unless I get a bounty in return. And I mean a serious bounty. If no team is willing to offer such a bounty, so be it.
Given what Utley is expected to command in return (i.e., a few “meh” prospects), I don’t trade him either.
Young won’t bring a lot in return, but is probably worth trading anyway. Same goes for Ruiz, unless he brings a sandwich draft pick if he walks after this year. In that case, the extra draft pick is probably more valuable than any return from a trade.
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The qualifying offer will likely exceed $14mil this season so there’s little chance that the Phil’s extend that kind of offer to Chooch
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I doubt it. I have a feeling they are entrenched in those opinions at this point.
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It is realistic if you tAlk to scouts. One scout said” best impact bat ive seen in minors this year”. Another scout said he would take franco over sano. And sano is ranked 11 with his stock going up. I would bet he is top 25.
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With all the negative things, i have read on here, that scouts have said about this kids swing How did you find a scout who thinks he is good??
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there are more major league scouts than stars in the sky. Im sure more than one has a favorable opinion about Franco now that he has destroyed AA for 50 abs
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I’ve read some really good things about his swing from scouts who provided far more insightful analysis then what we’ve seen from BP. Doesn’t mean that’s the truth either, just that scouts are far from hammering his swing. Now that he’s in the high minors and he’s become popular, I expect we’ll get far more information over the next few months.
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To quote “The swing isn’t perfect but I think it’s fantastic. The hands load deep, a bit past his back foot. That’d be a little too deep for most guys but Franco’s arms are long enough that his front arm doesn’t bar, it stays loose, and he has more than enough bat speed to make up that little extra distance his hands need to travel. The bat path is flat bu with Franco’s bat speed it’s one that’s still conducive of power. It stays in the hitting zone for a good amount of time. Franco also has one of the most efficient, perfect weight transfers I’ve ever seen. His whole body acts as one as he shifts his weight, rotates his hips and triggers his hands to get violent on baseballs.” – Crashburn Alley’s Eric Longenhagen.
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I like Eric’s posts, but I don’t know that he’s really a scout. I think I remember reading in his first post over there that he’s 23 years old or something like that. I’m not sure about his credentials for judging a swing.
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Eric works for BIS looking at baseball all day and then scouts in all of his free time looking for a job with a major league club. I wouldn’t make age a factor here, Hudson Belinsky is younger than Eric and one of the most insightful talent evaluators I have encountered. I would take his judgement with a grain of salt like anyone scouting but I would not just question his credentials based on his age
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Thanks for clearing that up.
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I believe you are wrong if you suggest that Detroit wouldn’t consider dealing Castellanos for Papelbon, of course they would. The reason that some of you think this is so insane of Detroit’s part is because of the site you are presently writing on…a site that almost guarantees a general solid knowledge and respect for prospects. So I get that you would think anyone suggesting the Tigers might do it are nuts. But they aren’t.
Look at the standings. Currently the Tigers are tied with the Indians and will need to win the division even make the playoffs, the wildcards are coming from the East and West. As mentioned the owner wants a championship, is in his mid 80’s and sees a roster that somewhat resembles the Phillies of 2009-10…very strong but with a window that could close quickly.
They are not going to let the opportunity to win a championship or two with this group go by just so they can protect a prospect. Remember, even some of the best prospects have failed miserably, Papelbon is solid gold when it come to playoff closing experience.
I believe there is a golden opportunity for the Phillies to make this deal if they strike now…before the Tigers get hot, before they look elsewhere, or before Papelbon gets hurt. It can happen. I doubt it will only because I am unconvinced that RA values prospects as much as he values proven performance.
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First of all “[t]he reason that some of you think this is so insane of Detroit’s part is because of the site you are presently writing on” isn’t true. Major league organizations increasingly understand the importance of young controllable talent. It is arrogant in the extreme to think that the people on this site are more aware of this than a typical major league front office.
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Look, there is a chance the Tigers are that stupid, I’ll grant you that. Stranger things have happened. But it would be an insanely unequal deal nonetheless. I’m not even sure that it increases the Tiger’s chances for one championship, at all, let alone two. I think there is a pretty good argument that Castellanos, at the major league level, would help the Tigers more than Papelbon EVEN IN THE SHORT RUN. At best, Papelbon would give them a tiny, tiny additional chance at a championship this year and maybe next. But that’s FAR outweighed by the long run additional value of Castellanos, even if he “only” becomes an average position regular.
And to respond to a point that Steve made, the fact that the Giants made a stupid deal several years ago (and some of that stupidity is hindsight; the washout rate on starting pitchers (even highly regarded ones) in A ball is well over 50 %) isn’t any evidence of anything. Low probability events occur all of the time, but assuming that s low probability event will occur in a specific instance is foolish.
It is, I will grant you, more realistic than the fantasy Utley deals you see people proposing.
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Larry …..please, what is the wash-out rate for pitchers….drafted in the first ten picks of a draft….in Low A?
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Off hand I don’t know the precise number. I’m assuming that you think it is low. I am pretty sure you are wrong. It would be an interesting study to do. You have to limit such a study to high school pitchers for obvious reasons. Maybe if I have time later I’ll look at it.
But the key factor is injuries. I’m sure that the failure rate for such pitchers who avoid injury is reasonably low. But the injury rate for minor league pitchers is pretty darn high.
I was being conservative by saying “at least 50%.” I bet it’s closer to 80%.
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Bad trades happen all the time , Its not foolish to speculate a team really wanting to win a world series ring and a parade , might slightly over pay (hunter pence comes to mind) for the last piece they need to get that hardware. It is foolish to predict a low occurrence event like when an earth quake is gonna happen. it is not foolish to speculate a slightly unfavorable trade.
And do you think Castellanos will be as good as Micheal Bourn ? Im not so sure. And we all know who he was traded for.
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Okay .. your “it’s not foolish to speculate” argument is fair to a point (though I think we’re well past that point in some cases. Though certainly of all the wild speculation, the Castellanos rumor has more connection with the real world than most.
Though I don’t really see the proposed Papelbon trade as a “slight” overpay, I see it as a massive overpay. As for the Bourne comp, that’s really kind of misses the point. Bourne was not seen at the time as a top 25 prospect, not even close. And he certainly COULD be better than Bourne.
But my problem isn’t so much with the “wouldn’t it be great if we could get Castellanos for Papelbon” posts, but more with (a) the posts which ASSUME we can do that deal, and assume that the only barrier to getting it done is Amaro, and (b) the posts that assume we can get MULTIPLE top prospects for Papelbon. Of course that’s in a context where the trade value of multiple veterans are being over estimated, sometimes wildly. There seems a sizable chunk of people around here who seem to think – no, rather, who state explicitly – that the Phillies can get a bunch of top prospects by trading away their veterans, and rebuild on the fly “just like Boston.” (Of course even if that was realistic on its own terms, that wouldn’t be following Boston’s example anyway.) It’s just what I said, magical thinking.
The reality is that we MAY be able to accelerate the process a little by judicious trades – but only a little, if we’re lucky. But the main answer is good old fashion drafting and player development, along with some judicious use of financial resources. There really aren’t going to be any shortcuts for this team’s return to contention.
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Bourn had already made major league and flashed some serious base stealing skills along with an above average CF defense , along with controllable youth 3 valuable commodities , castellanos , has not done outside of the minors maybe he bombs , I doubt but hey what do I know , And I completely agree about the Amaro thing he would make that trade in a heart beat , if it were offered. And I think if the phillies paid these guys salaries they should be able to get a few good prospects back, paps , lee , utley , and rollins surely would bring some talent back , maybe we could even trade howard if we pay his salary , but im not sure that has any return. And most midseason win now trades are massive overpays , thats kinda what they are about , you just have to realize the nature of the beast
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Gillies going back to AAA. Lets see if he has more success this time around. Would love it if he can do something as I had pretty much given up on him.
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I suppose that means Dugan is on his way to reading?
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Nope.
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During the LV game on Saturday they said that James might be going to Reading soon, so not sure what that will mean for Dugan.
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So far in AA for Franco, he’s hitting .468 with a .429 BABIP and a wRC+ of 259. Yes very very SSS but still, wow.
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Just an FYI, there is a good interview with Tocci on PhilliesNation.com. The kid sounds like a humble, hard working player. Very encouraging.
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Detroit getting clobbered again today. They will now be in second place and have a bullpen in shambles. They are not going to let Castellanos get in the way of improving their team, they just aren’t. Look, they may consider him an untouchable, but I doubt it. His value to them is much less as an outfielder than it is as a 3rd baseman.
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Do you target a 3rd baseman for Paps though? Do we have more pressing positional needs? I think we do. Outfield and starting pitching strike me as two areas you should address before 3rd.
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Castellanos is a LF/1B prospect in the NL. Probably same in AL with DH also being a possibility. He was moved off 3B over a year ago I believe.
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He was moved off of 3rd partially because he wasn’t great at it, but also because they have that whole Prince, Miggy, Avila, VMart logjam there. If he gets traded, there’s a chance the team that picks him up moves him back to 3rd.
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However Castellanos is a good young power hitting outfielder and would look great in the Phillies lineup.
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Well, there we go haha.
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Goodness man…..the Tiggers should give up both Castellanos and Garcia for Paps at this current rate of their decline in the standings!
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Wake me up on August 1 so I can just read one MLB Trade Rumors roundup post and dispense with all this silly talk. And, no, I’m not pissing on the idea that the Phillies might get some ridiculous haul for Papelbom or Utley. Strange and irrational trades happen every year, and it seems like the Phillies are often in the middle of them. (I’m still gobsmacked by what Cleveland took in the first Cliff Lee trade.) It’s just that you’ll drive yourself crazy trying to figure out which strange and irrational trade is going to happen ahead of time.
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Replace “Castellanos” with “Olt” and its July 2012 all over again on PP. At least Darin Ruf isn’t hitting home runs right now …
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This is the time of year though that makes baseball so great. We all play arm-chair GM, and plot out what we would do. You don’t see this in other sports – at least not to this degree.
It will be interesting to see what rumors pop up over the next month. To your point – most will be simply that – rumors. But – it is fun.
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I guess it’s fun. It was much more fun when we were on the buying side. But yes, marginally less depressing than actually watching this team play regularly, which I have given up on doing for the most part.
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i have a question have we given up on César Hernández because is seems like we are forgetting about him. or does he have no upside
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To me it seems that the Phillies are committed to Hernandez, especially after he showed he can hit at the major league level. He wasn’t going to get the at-bats (same as Fredy) so he is getting them (4 hits tonight) at AAA. He should be fine. He may be your second baseman next year or the year after.
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