Wrapping up our series with high school hitters in the 1st and 2nd round that the Phillies could target with their picks.
Off the Board:
Clint Frazier – OF- Georgia
I don’t know where Frazier will go but he is incredible bat speed that gives him plus plus power. Frazier could be a true five tool all-star down the line.
Reese McGuire – C – Washington
Reese is a natural catcher who should be a plus defender behind the plate. His ultimate ceiling will be determined by the bat, which will flash plus plus hit ability and average power.
1st Round:
Austin Meadows – OF – Georgia
It is highly unlikely that Meadows drops but he could slip through the cracks. Meadows has a ton of potential highlighted by an advanced bat which makes solid contact with no visible holes. The power is behind Frazier but Meadows might be able to stick in center field.
Dominic Smith – 1B – California
Smith might have the most advanced high school bat in the class. Scouts project to have a plus bat and plus power. He is a plus defender at first and scouts love his work ethic.
JP Crawford – SS -California
Crawford biggest tool is his ability to stick at SS long term. It is less loud tools but average to above tools across the board with the power maybe lagging a bit. At shortstop that is a borderline all-star.
Nick Ciuffo – C -South Carolina
Much like Crawford, Ciuffo doesn’t have big loud tools but he is solid across the board and should be a good catcher behind the plate. He may not be a super star but the profile is not that unsimilar to top catching prospects like D’Arnaud and Zunino.
Jonathan Denney – C- Oklahoma
Denney’s calling card is a big time bat. He should be able to stick behind the plate but he isn’t the defender of the other two 1st round catchers. His bat has looked shaky at times this spring causing him to drop but the raw ability is there.
2nd Round:
Oscar Mercado – SS – Florida
Mercado is a solid to plus defensive shortstop. The bat is lacking a bit and he had a down 2013 at the plate. He probably won’t ever have good power but the swing looks like it should give him good contact ability.
Cord Sandberg – OF – Florida
Sandberg might have better projection than any high schooler in the draft. He has plenty of raw tools but as a two sport athlete he is a lot more raw than the other top high school bats. He could be a tough sing with a football commitment.
Riley Unroe – SS – Arizona
Not all scouts are convinced Unroe will stick at short but there is a chance and the fall back options are second or center. He is a switch hitter with great bat speed and possibly average power.
Josh Hart – OF – Georgia
Hart is more polished than some other bats on this list. He lacks the power projection scouts are looking for but he makes good contact and could be a plus defender in center.
Ryan Boldt – OF – Minnesota
Boldt should be in the first round discussion on ability, but a knee injury prematurely ended his season. He is a plus plus runner with good bat speed and center field profile. He is going to be a very difficult signing with a Nebraska college commitment.
Travis Demerritte – 3B – Georgia
While he is currently a shortstop scouts see Demerritte’s long term position at third base. He has good bat speed which generates plus power. The defense will be ok but the bat could carry him.
Rowdy Tellez – 1B – California
Tellez has hug raw power and a decent feel for hitting. He is going to need to keep his body in shape but it could be a big time bat.
Dustin Peterson – 3B – Arizona
DJ Peterson’s little brother. Peterson has great bat speed which gives him good contact and plus power potential. The question is the defense as he is too slow for short but the arm might be lacking at third.
Tyler O’Neill – C – British Columbia
O’Neill is new to catching but he may not stay there long term but there are plenty of fall back options. He should hit for average and power.
Chris Okey – C – Florida
Solid bat and good athleticism behind the plate make for a good catcher profile. Scouts are concerned about the lack of power though.
Cavan Biggio – IF/OF – Texas
The son of Craig Biggio, Biggio is a great contact hitter and could develop average power. He has play 2B and 3B but could end up in the corner outfield in the end.
Jordan Paroubeck – OF – California
A switch hitter who could be an average hitter with above average power. He is a plus runner but profiles best in right field. A hard worker Paroubeck could be solid across the board.
Dom Nunez – C – California
Nunez is new to catching but has a good feel for the game behind the plate. All the tools are close to average and he will need to add to his frame to reach his potential.
Justin Williams – OF – Tennessee
Young for the class Williams has some of the best raw power in the class. He is not a good hitter right now and is a shaky defender who will likely end up in LF or 1B.
Billy McKinney – OF – Texas
McKinney is rising fast and might be a first round pick on draft day. McKinney is a plus hitter who should generate solid power. The defensive tools are fringy but more than enough for an outfield corner.
Summary:
If any of Meadows, Smith, or Crawford fall to the Phillies they should be ecstatic. Otherwise the catchers seem like a reach at #16. There is plenty of talent in the second and third rounds among high school hitters. The Phillies really love Sandberg in the second where he could be a tremendous value if the tools mature, it is the perfect spot to take that kind of risk in a system desperate for talent.
Phuture Phillies 
I know it belongs in the general discussion but CHAD DURBIN IS GONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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One down a few more to go
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Thank God!!!!!!
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Understand Red Sox at 7 would like Frazier.
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I think that is the lowest he falls (unless for some strange reason Stewart falls as well). He could go as early as #3 though.
I think Frazier is going to be very good, bat speed is a huge asset and he has tons
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I remember reading that Tyler Greene had tremendous bat speed, out of High School. Bat speed is a ‘must have’ trait, but that doesn’t mean you are a good hitter.
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All I know is that I don’t want the typical Phillie pick of plus raw power with a questionable hit tool (ala Hewitt and Greene). A Highschooler is still young enough to develop power but if the hit tool isn’t there it is tougher to develop and the in-game power will never be realized. I know BA isn’t the best judge of a hitter, but I don’t believe the Phillies have ever drafted and developed anyone who ever went on to be a career .300 hitter.
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Got you Aron….Richie Ashburn.
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No draft then.
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But developed in the system.
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Ashburn was a free agent signing as the amateur draft was not instituted until 1965.
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No kidding…..but it is all about development I think from what I gathered and read in your post…being it free agent signee, draftee or even hatched from an egg.
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Producing .300 hitters doesn’t mean anything. You could be a career 300 hitter, and he still not be much of an offensive force.
The fact that the Phillies haven’t developed 300 hitters doesnt mean anything.
In my lifetime the Phillies have drafted/signed and developed the following:
Mike Schmidt: 147 OPS+
Ryan Howard : 134 OPS+
Greg Luzinski: 130 OPS+
Chase Utley: 126 OPS+
Scott Rolen: 120 OPS+
Pat Burrell: 116 OPS+
Ryan Sandberg:114 OPS+
Julio Franco: 111 OPS+
There are Hall of fame bats among those players, and you’re talking about hitting 300?
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Rollins might also be close to HOF. Franco wasn’t drafted, he was an international signee. I guess Richie Allen is pre-draft, or he would be an add to that list.
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Yeah, I know Franco was a Latin American Signee, but he was developed by the Phillies. I was surprised his career OPS wasn’t higher. I remember him being a beast for the Indians. I guess his age 40 to 49 seasons dragged him down a bit.
I was also surpised Juan Samuel only had a 101 career OPS. His years after the Phillies, pulled him down.
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I think you missed the point of my original post. Not one of those guys was drafted as having a questionable hit tool (and the last two names on that list hurt for other reasons).
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You are wrong. Howard was drafted in the 5th round, specifically because he had a questionable hit tool. Now he is the 2nd most productive Phillies hitter of the last 40 years.
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Oops. Never mind what I said about Howard being the 2nd most productive hitter. I don’t feel like hearing it, from the Chase Utley fanboys today.
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5th Round being the key word. I guess I wasn’t precise enough. In the 1st (and supplemental) round the team shouldn’t be reaching for plus power paired with a questionable hit tool.
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I guess I understand that line of reasoning. But I don’t think you appreciate how hard it is to find power. The Phillies aren’t the only team that reaches for power.
Look at this years draft. Frazier has passed Meadows as prospect because they don’t know if Meadows will hit for power. Same for Bryant over Moran. There are a lot of guys who can hit. Not a lot who can hit for power.
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Vor, I remember you mentioned a few weeks ago that Aaron Judge, though a power bat, were leery of him since there are not many players his size, 6’7″, 245 lbs, with comp success. To me he is in the Dave Kingman/Frank Howard physical mode of a power bat. And as opposed to those past players, he can field his position. Now granted he doers not profile in lighting up the board with an outstanding OBP he does bring you power. His Cape Cod experience with wooden bats was also above average.
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You see Frank Howard, I see John Mayberry jr.
IMO, if you’re going to take a raw college bat, you might as well go all in, and select a HS bat. I’d take Jon Denney, Nick Ciuffo or even Travis Demeritte before I take Judge or Austin Wilson.
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I am curious as to what the success rate is for first round picked college hitters vs first round picked HS hitters?
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“Travis Demeritte “
Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
NO.
THIRD ROUND.
I’ve watched the video. Don’t like the hit tool at all.
NO.
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Splain ‘productive’? HRs and RBIs? or K% or RISP? or OPS?
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He was going by OPS+ and by the end of Howard’s contract unless he suffers a career ending injury the Big Piece will be behind the Bull and probably behind Utley.
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Good story in SI this week on Frazier and Meadows
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Cavan Biggio… watch out for him. He has sneaky power for a scrawny kid. Would love to see the Phils pick him up!
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Reported to be unsignable.
Going to college and money means nothing to him. Can live in a mansion the rest of his life without ever holding a job.
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Thanks for the continuing write-ups on the draft with the Phils picking at #16.
A high school hitter for that pick? given that the franchise has had horrendous failures in drafting HS hitters as their first pick (no names necessary), it seems that that conforms to the definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over, and expecting a different result.
Hasn’t the team learned anything from this experience? Guys like Harper, etc. (HS) don’t come easily or readily and are the exception to the rule.
The future of this team will rely on pitching, pitching, and pitching. The nearly ready prospects includes Franco, Asche, Joseph (?), Altherr, Dugan, Hernandez, and one or two prospect OFers in a Lee, or other, trade.
Going for a promising HS pitcher is my wish for this pick. And, in rounds 2 & 3, too.
P.S. With all due respect, I disagree that teams do NOT consider franchise needs in making choices of draftees. A recent draft issue of BA goes through their own predictions as to who will be drafted by whom. In discussions of those “likeliest” of team choices, that team’s needs are influenced by that team’s needs.
That is, when the choice is between several who are about equally valued, the choice is most likely going to be the one that best fills that team’s believed needs.
Let’s start building an excellent pitching staff. Get a good one at #16.
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I think the team needs thing gets overblown and confused. Most people take it to mean major league need, when often especially in mock drafts it is organizational need. Frankly I think the Phillies need is talent so it should be BPA. But barring that, there is never too many pitchers and up the middle players in an organization (C,SS,CF) especially if they can stick there with a good bat.
The other thing which you touched on first was, prospect values can fluctuate based on what the organization has success developing. The Phillies are fairly good with pitching in general and that should push pitchers up the board to some extent because they become “safer”
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“A high school hitter for that pick? given that the franchise has had horrendous failures in drafting HS hitters as their first pick”
You mean like Greg Golson and Anthony Hewitt who were both drafted by DAVID MONTGOMERY because they agreed to pre-draft on-the-nose slot money?
Anthony Hewitt may have still been available in the sixth round, or the 25th round if the Phillies did not make the deal with him. He was 19 years old, probably the oldest “high school'” pick in the first ten rounds and even at that advanced age was extremely raw by normal high school standards.
What you meant to write is: “I hope David Montgomery will take his hands off the throats of the Phillies farm crew and ignore slot values as much as they can figure out how to get away with like those other teams did last year.”
There, I fixed your post for you.
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Free…always with a David Montgomery posting. Though this time you forgot his middle initials-$$$.
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BA’s mock #3 has Dominic Smith still with us. I would be estactic if we grabbed him. For once he’s a high school bat that has an advanced hit tool with the power to go along.
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Would love it, if it happens.
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Where the f**k is that Oklahoma monster DREW WARD on this list?
Oh yeah, he’s a “very patient hitter, almost too patient”.
The Phillies don’t want someone like that. They want some kid like Domonic Smith who jumps out of his shoes swinging at the first pitch.
DREW WARD profiles like a .900 OPS bat and as you can see from a quick glance at the Phillies lineup they don’t like hitters who can generate a .900 OPS.
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You’re allowed to be a fan of a player, and you’re certainly entitled to an opinion, but don’t be a dick.
If you can’t make your point without backing it up AT ALL, you don’t have a very good point to be made.
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I dont agree with your profiling but ya Ward is definitely round 2 consideration.
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Drew Ward will be gone before the Phillies pick in round 2.
Doesn’t matter though, the Phillies will take Travis Demeritte instead. If you have not watched the video of Travis Demeritte being interviewed you should and it will be obvious to you that the Phillies covet him. Not for his bat, he can’t hit. That’s not what’s important about Travis Demeritte.
Doug Glanville stunk with the exception of his career year, but the Phillies loved him.
John Mayberry is awful as a baseball player, but he’s the Phillies kind of guy.
The Phillies didn’t scout Ben Revere for his baseball ability, they scouted him for his social skills. As T-Mac says on the air “Ben can really light up a room with his personality.”
T-Mac has said repeatedly on the air about Domonic Brown: “His parents sure raised a good one.”
I’m sure the Phillies have done a lot of scouting on Domonic Smith and they’ll take him because they determined that one day -whether he can hit well or not – T-Mac will be able to say on the air “Domonic Smith’s parents sure raised a good one.”
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David $$$ Montgomery sees a good return on investment in Dom Smith.
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Being a well spoken minority is now a bad trait?
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You just struck out on three Rick Ankiel pitches to the back stop.
It’s hard to miss the point as much as you did, congratulations.
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Interesting write up on Perkins
View results
“He’s one of those guys who is a baseball player,” Wolever said. “He’s kind of like Cody Asche. A little like Chase Utley when he was in college. You don’t know if there are highs or lows because they’re the same guy whenever they come out to play.”
It’s not just the Phillies who like Perkins either.
“Love him,” a National League scout said. “He’s a baseball player. He has some pretty good instincts. He runs well and plays a good outfield
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20130602_Phils_like_Clearwater_outfield_prospect.html#zuv7k7J3GFeHVDEg.99
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roccomr says:
February 15, 2013 at 5:24 PM
mratfink. here is how sure i am. i PROMISE if he hits 260, with say 15 homeruns , YOU wont have to ever see me post again. i am so sure, he is a flop. if i am wrong, i will apologize and nver post again. and were did you see him turn on any good fastballs??????? i nevr saw him hit one yet”
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