2013 MLB Mock Draft – Phillies on the clock (1:16)

2013 Draft

There is no good way to do a Mock Draft for the baseball draft because teams don’t draft for need and one pick can destroy an entire mock.  The purpose of this activity is step through as many picks as we can before the draft on June 6.  I will update the poll for the next team every so often, when I have time for the next pick in the draft.  The goal is to put yourself in the mindset of the team making the pick and choose the player you would take in their place. Lets see who could be available at #16.


  1. Houston Astros – Jonathan Grey
  2. Chicago Cubs – Mark Appel
  3. Colorado Rockies – Kris Bryant
  4. Minnesota Twins – Kohl Stewart
  5. Cleveland Indians – Colin Moran
  6. Miami Marlins – Clint Frazier
  7. Boston Red Sox – Austin Meadows
  8. Kansas City Royals – Trey Ball
  9. Pittsburg Pirates – Reese McGuire
  10. Blue Jays – Brayden
  11. New York Mets – Hunter Renfroe
  12. Seattle Mariners – DJ Peterson
  13. San Diego Padres – Ryne Stanek
  14. Pirates – JP Crawford
  15. Arizona Diamondbacks – Phil Bickford
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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

246 thoughts on “2013 MLB Mock Draft – Phillies on the clock (1:16)”

  3. I don’t think there is any way Houston takes Appel, because of Scott Boras. So I’m going with Gray although Bryant wouldn’t surprise me if he’s willing to sign for less than Gray is.

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    1. I’m very surprised that so many people believe the Astros will pick Appell. I’d be more surprised if they picked Appell, than if they picked Bryant. I could easily see the Astros try to save a million or 2, with Bryant, because some believe he is the top player.
      The problem with picking Appell, without having a deal in place, is that he is a senior, and the signing date rules do not apply to him. He could theoretically hold up all subsequent picks, because the Astros don’t know how much of their pool he will want, or if he will sign.

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    2. I think it is Gray. Top pitchers are valuable commodities and looking at the Houston system they need pitching badly and Grey may have the best raw talent in the draft. Bryant or Appel would not surprise me.

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      1. I think Houston would be stupid to draft a college pitcher. They haven’t built a lineup yet. Even if one of these college clowns like Appel comes out breathing fire the chances are excellent that they are already on the other side by the time the Astros get a good lineup together.

        Pitching is the last thing you go for.

        Also, what does it tell you about Appel and Gray that you have read so much about them and all you’ve read is discussion about their draft position and bonus demands?

        When Mark Prior was coming out much was written about him, but most of it was about his dominating performances and his stuff. I’ve read more about the stuff thrown by Trey Ball and Kohl Stewart individually than I have about Appel and Gray combined. These two college clowns remind me of all those “safe”, “advanced” college pitchers the Pirates and Royals burned up their future on the past ten years.

        How’s Kyle Zimmer doing? I read a post from someone who doesn’t depend on the Royals organization for information who said Zimmer’s fastball never topped 92 in an outing he watched a few weeks ago.

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        1. If you look at the Astros system they are actually doing well with position players.
          Castro (in majors), Singleton (2013 ETA), Altuve (in majors), Villar (2013 ETA), Correa (2015 ETA), Ruiz (2016 ETA), Santana (2013 ETA), and Springer (2013 ETA) aren’t slouches at the plate going forward. That being said, I think Bryant is a stud and worthy of being in the #1 pick discussion

          As for their stuff:
          Appel – Fastball 93-95 touching 97, plus breaking ball, plus changeup, plus command. Could be ready in the majors by August, #2 starter profile.
          Gray – Fastball 95-97 touching 100, plus to plus plus slider, average changeup with plus potential, average present command, may need a little more time

          Jason Cole scouting report on Zimmer with video http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20590
          The fastball is 94-97 touching 99 (could have been down one day but I doubt it was just touching 92), plus to plus plus curveball, the changeup is fringy wth average potential

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      1. I voted and I didn’t read it right, I automatically voted who I wanted the Phillies to take, then after I wrote in Renfroe, I realized I messed up the questions. My bad. Basically, I want a college guy middle of the lineup guy. Who in the whole minor league system profiles as a middle of the lineup guy? Franco…..and that is it. I guess you can say Tocci and Cozens but they are so far away. The whole minor league system is littered with 2, 6 and 7 hole hitters. So that is why I automatically voted Renfroe. I am not saying he is the answer or if that is even a good idea but I am over these toolsy high school guys. Give me a big power hitter out of the SEC like Frank Thomas. Anyway, sorry for messing up the question.

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        2. this is exactly what ive been thinking. Even in the organization in general we have no real 3 hole hitter other than utley who could be gone next year

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  5. I’m glad to see Stanek dominated LSU over the weekend. Maybe that solidifies him as a top 10 player, and pushes one of the position players (Crawford, Smith) to the Phillies.

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      1. I’m not a fan of Stanek’s delivery. He uses so much effort, it looks like an injury risk to my eyes. I have also seen scouting reports that think his future is relieving. The one scouting report I’ve seen that does mention relief pitching, was from Keith Law, preseason. He thinks he has #3 pitcher ‘stuff’, not an ‘Ace’. Seems like a lot of risk associated with him, without the upside.
        I’d prefer Chris Anderson, who seems less risky, but still has #2 upside.

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      2. Can Stanek hit and play the outfield, 3B, SS, 2B, 1B or catcher?

        If not then what are you going on about him for? Jesse Biddle, Adam Morgan and Ethan Martin as a package won’t get you any bat that’s significantly better than Delmond Young. The Royals are the first and last team to trade a big bat talent for a pitcher.

        Do you ever watch the Phillies play? Do you think Domonic Brown is going to become a 90 HR a year hitter? How do you plan to solve the Phillies egregious, crippling problem which afflicts their lineup?

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    1. Meadows would be an absolute best case scenario for the Phillies, but I can’t see it happening. It’s hard to imagine that Meadows would slip lower than #12.

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        1. In his chat today Jim Callis said Meadows was about to agree to a deal with a team picking very high.

          Good to see someone thinking about a talented high school bat though. I was beginning to think everyone here was wearing panties.

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  8. When I look at these draft lists, I feel much like the posters who occasionally ask questions like why isn’t Jim Murphy a really good prospect. I have no idea – and I mean pretty close to zero – how to assess high school and college prospects. I sort of know what type of player I’d like the team to draft, but how to project that player – not a clue. So I’ll refrain from voting and read with interest as to how you folks assess these draft prospects – it’s a complete mystery to me.

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    1. Phillies should trade down out of the first round and get extra picks….oops , wrong sport.

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  9. What about Sean Manaea? 6’5″ lefty who tore up the Cape league last year. Is he hurt? Wondering why he isn’t in the top 10 box.

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    1. He has been hurt all season, the fastball is down from mid-90s to the hi-80s. The command has faltered and the secondary pitches have regressed. He has been falling and the more he drops the signability question looms

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    2. Had hip pain early in the season that caused him to tweak his delivery. He sat out a start last week with “Shoulder soreness” in his pitching arm. As Matt notes, he’d be a signability risk, but shoulder scares the hell out of me to the point that I wouldn’t draft him, even if it is likely just from short term altering of mechanics.

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  10. Variety of opinions on who the Phillies should draft:
    Keith Law(ESPN)-JP Crawford or Devin Williams…..John Sickels-JP Crawford……Mike Rosenbaum-JP Crawford…..Adam Wells-Tim Anderson……Dave Perkin (SI)-Trey Ball….Chris Crawford(MLB)-Dominic Smith

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  11. there’s no way ball lasts to 16 is there? Not sure why SI would say we should draft him.
    I thought he was a consensus top 10 or even better

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    1. SI had Harold Martinez on the cover when Martinez was in high school. SI said he was the next A-Rod and the first pick of the draft.

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  12. From ScoutingBaseball.com

    The Phillies have been tied heavily to righty Alex Balog, who was very average early in the year but the 6’6 hurler with serious helium started flashing plus stuff across the board late in the season. The Phillies have been in for most of his starts down the stretch and Balog fits their type as a big pitchers with huge upside.

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    3. If the Phillies take a college guy with the first pick they are all wearing Frederick’s of Hollywood lace.

      This is a high school draft. That’s where all the talent is.

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  13. Only 8 more days til we know the pick……..I think Domonic “don’t call me Brown” Smith

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    1. He’s a good bat, but he’s tied to 1B and the Phillies don’t think a 1B bat is worth a first round pick. They wouldn’t take Smith before the second round. I’m not agreeing with that, but that’s how they are. They would take another Hewitt or Golson on a pre-draft agreement before they would take Smith’s bat.

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      1. They took Larry Greene, Jr. first last year. Their protestations to the contrary, if he ever hits enough to make it to the majors, it will not be as an OF. It was clear to just about the entire world on draft day that he was destined to 1B by his size and that size has only increased. Four years from now, he will be bigger and slower.

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    2. I believe you mean Dominic “don’t call me Domonic” Smith. Brown has an unusual spelling and I remember when he announced that everyone was spelling it wrong.

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  14. Anonymous. why isn’t a first basemen worth a first round pick? really don’t understand that thinking

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  15. Watched some north Carolina baseball. love Moran, but cant believe the Astros would consider him at one, Just think Appel and Grey are top guys. Hate that baseball has these teams who just cant or wont spend to be good. plus it waters down the major league talent.

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    2. Read up on how the draft pool works and then look how Houston drafted last year. It has nothing to do with being cheap, everything to do with how you spend your money.

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    3. Astros are going to spend the money that Major League Baseball allots them. They are just going about filling their system differently. Truth is Gray and Appel are not David Price or Stephen Strasburg and Bryant isnt Longoria.

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      1. I am not a scout. but everything that I have read. points to Appel as a top of rotation guy, Its not about Houston being cheap, its them going after Moran over gray and Appel, imo a mistake. And my point ,is I love this game, and teams like Kansas city, Astros. Marlins, Minnesota. Kansas city, just are watering down the talent. teams don’t draw and need money from the league as small markets.. rather have less teams and better baseball. you think a Cloyd would ever have played when there were only 24 teams. what reason can anyone give me that the marlins should be a franchise?? there owner is a disgrace.

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        1. Well, it isn’t cheapness for Houston, they’ll spend the pool, but they spent it differently last year by drafting a Top 5 kid with lower signing demands allowing them to go over slot later and give a First Round talent who slipped due to bonus demands what he was looking for. They basically got 2 First Rounders by spending their SBP smartly.

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        2. Does Appel have any eligibility left? I know he is a Boras guy and will demand top dollar but he doesn’t have a lot of other options this year.

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  16. In Mayo and Law’s latest mocks, they have Dominic Smith and Trey Ball being selected by the Phils.

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    2. That would be a dream scenario to get either of them. I think there is a good chance Smith can play RF, but regardless the bat is special. I think Ball is a Top 10 talent in this draft.

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    3. Law also says the Phillies are linked to LHP Ian Clakin, SS JP Crawford and SS Anderson. Not hearing them linked to any college players

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      2. Clarkin appears to be maxed out physically at 6’2”. Could be a difference maker in his ability to add a few mph to his fastball. Still has a great curve.
        Crawford is a great athlete but still question his baseball ability. Footwork looks very raw. Still head and shoulders best SS in the draft.
        Anderson has speed and athleticism but almost no power, more or a slap hitter.

        I’m just hoping Smith manages to slip to us.

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        1. Everything ive heard about Clarkin this spring has been negative. Not much on Perfect Games end though. I know his velo was down early in the Spring. Maybe it jumped back up? In the end you just have to trust the scouting because theyve seen him more than any of these websites.

          Every year though theres a high school hitter with a really advanced hit tool but isnt a tool shed. They dropped for some reason. Castellanos, Yelich, Almora (didnt drop too far) all had arguably best hit tools on the 18u USA teams. I think this year its Domonic Smith. Now the only problem i have is the alleged non patient approach. That might just be him not getting many pitches to hit in HS ball.

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          1. “Domonic Smith. Now the only problem i have is the alleged non patient approach. That might just be him not getting many pitches to hit in HS ball.”

            That’s the Phillies guy then isn’t it?

            Drew Ward is the exact opposite. Walks and HR which equal a .900 OPS.

            Why would the Phillies want someone like that?

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  18. Si has us taking Anderson. Seems like Hewitt 2.0
    I’ve heard that smith could handle the outfield. I shall pray very hard that he falls to us.

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    2. Isn’t he a division 1 college QB? That doesn’t seem like a Phillies type 2nd round pick. They’d have to be sure he is willing to sign for 900K, and give up his scholarship to play football.

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        1. No he did not.

          The Des Moine Register interviewed the family. The Phillies were informed before the draft that Rash would sign for $800,000. The Phillies refused to go over even one dollar above slot.

          The Phillies could have paid Rash over $900,000 without giving up a draft pick. They left several hundred thousand dollars of their pool money unused.

          Google it.

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          1. You forgot the part where Alec Rash’s fastball mph dropped alot after he was drafted and he got hurt in college this year.

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            2. The Des Moine Register had video of Rash pitching in a game and discussed how he was hitting Ninety-Six MPH repeatedly. Rash was wild in the game, but he never lost any velocity.

              Baseball America despite being informed by me of the Des Moine Register coverage continued to repeat the Phillies propaganda. Apparently that is the price Baseball America is willing to pay so the Phillies scouts will continue to give them information.

              It’s Mitch Gueller who lost his stuff -and never found it again – but Mitch signed for slot so he’s a good guy.

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  20. Mlbdraftinsider has one of the more plausible, recent mock drafts posted. None of the names that seem to be on everyone’s wish list make it to the Phillies. It has Grey, Appel, Bryant, Stewart, Moran, DJ Peterson, Shipley, Ball, McGuire, Frazier Renfroe, Meadows, Crawford, Smith and Stanek going before the Phillies pick. It has the Phillies taking Hunter Harvey.
    I wouldn’t be opposed to Harvey, but I would consider Jon Denney, Phillip Ervin, Phil Bickford or Chris Anderson before Harvey if the the draft played out that way. As long as the Phillies don’t pick Austin Wilson, Aaron Judge or any of those college pitchers that profile as relievers, I probably won’t be too disappointed.

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  21. A big thank you to you guys in the know. It makes for interesting reading for those of us without that knowledge base.

    One of the most intriguing parts to me is sign-ability and the choice an 18 y.o. (or his parents) makes between colleges or signing. The Alec Rash case last year was particularly interesting; choosing Missouri over an offer in the 600k’s when they reportedly wanted in the 800’s. To walk away from an offer like that, they (the father) must expect him to develop into a 1st round talent in 3 years. Seems like a big risk to me. Sounds like Rash had a good start for Mizzou before being shut downe with an elbow: http://www.mutigers.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/alec_rash_831365.html

    Also of interest is who the Phils will take with the #96 compensation pick this year.

    Then there’s someone like Tony Blanford, Phils’ 18th rounder last year. I’m not sure if he was offered more than $100k, but he decided against that and an ASU ride and opted for JuCo. It sounds like he projects a few rounds higher this year and he’ll have another decision to make after a pretty nondescript year with the Vaqueros: http://www.accac.org/sports/bsb/2012-13/players/tonyblanfordn0ji

    A case where you can see the result was that of Brandon Workman – offered $275k in 2007 and wanted $350k. He signed with the Red Sox in 2010 for $800k. That part seems to have worked out for him.

    Of course the Phils 2008 comp pick for him is in the starting rotation, while Workman is still at AA.

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    1. Personally I blame a lot of the HS signability problems on the NCAA. As you mentioned with your examples, there is a lot of money on the line in these deals. However, the rules of the NCAA prevent you from bringing in a professional to help in the negotiations. Yes there are “advisors” and they often act similar to agents but they are barred from negotiating directly with the team (advisors also work free of charge unless the player signs). This means that 18 year old kids and there parents are making decisions regarding anywhere from millions to hundreds of thousands of dollars. There is a lot of missed communication from both sides that I think allowing professionals into the room would help make sure that both sides went where they wanted to go.

      Another non-Phillies example Karston Whitson who turned down $2.1 million from the Padres in 2010. He has struggled with injuries and isn’t even in BA’s Top 500 for the 2013 draft.
      Then there is Scott Frazier who turned down $1 million from the Phillies and likely will got in the 5th-6th round and get maybe a quarter of that original offer.

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      2. I was wondering when someone would mention Scott Frazier, and the 1 million he turned down in 2010. He is ranked around 100, so he may be able to get 400K as a 3rd round pick.

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          1. Wow. Didnt see his BA ranking. I went off his MLB.com ranking. If he is a 6th rounder, that would probably mean 150K bonus. Hopefully for him, his experience at Pepperdine was worth the 850K loss.

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      3. “Scott Frazier who turned down $1 million from the Phillies”

        Where are you getting this fantasy nonsense from?

        Scott Frazier ASKED for one million dollars. The Phillies told him to enjoy college.

        The Phillies NEVER offered any draft pick chosen after the second round one million dollars. You must have the Phillies confused with the Red Sox.

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        1. I don’t see what is so unbelievable. They gave 5th round pick, Mitch Walding, 800K, the very next year. If they would give Walding 800k in 2011, and 900K to 8th round pick, Colvin, in 2009, why not 1 million to Frazier in 2010.

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          1. I thought we got Pointer/Walter/Musser with the money Frazier turned down? If not a million, that’s pretty close.

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            1. “I thought we got Pointer/Walter/Musser with the money Frazier turned down? “

              WTF?

              There was no limit to the spending allowed that year.

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            2. I didn’t suggest there was an outside limit. You seem to be very attuned to the fact that the Phillies set their own draft budget, even if you hate it. I am under the impression that the Phillies reallocated the portion of their draft budget allotted for Scott Frazier to Walter/Musser/Pointer when Frazier turned it down.

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            3. This is absolutely true. The bigger question is why wouldn’t they want to sign Walter, Musser, and Pointer even if Frazier had signed? There was nothing stopping them, other than their own draft philosphy, from doing exactly that. But they wouldn’t have offered them if Frazier had signed. They liked Musser, Pointer, and Walter, but had set a puny budget for the draft and wouldn’t exceed it. That in a nutshell is a large part of the problem with the way the Phillies used to draft under the last CBA. A lot of our competitiors took a different approach and benefited by doing so. Selig did not bring down the heavens upon their heads. They suffered no repercussions whatsoever for spending more on the draft and on international talent than he wanted them to. You can set your strategy to benefit your team or to please Selig and his crusade against amateur bonuses. You can’t do both. We know which choice leads to more wins. It really is that simple.

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            4. Oh, agreed with that. One of the frustrating parts is that you can hardly even go back to their drafts and say “we should’ve busted slot for X” because they avoided *drafting* those guys if they wouldn’t sign.

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            6. The Phillies aren’t always entirely truthful about how much money they offered but were turned down. Remember the bogus claims of how much they said they offered Scott Rolen? Musser, Pointer, and Walter got Fraziers $. I don’t think they got $1 mill total amongst them.

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    2. I must be reading the wrong numbers on rash. he had a era of 4.55 , in 27 innings he gave up 34 hits and 16 walks, is that consider good for college?

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      1. Certainly not for an upperclass college pitcher, but he’s a freshman, so probably not all that bad. I think we’ve drafted college juniors with ERAs like that in the top 10 rounds in recent drafts, but I guess that ERA is worse with the new bats.

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      3. The first round of every draft is littered with college pitchers who had freshman numbers like that.

        Rash’s control wasn’t good in high school, I mentioned that in one of my posts. His velocity was excellent however, exactly the opposite of what the Phillies put out there to justify not signing Rash.

        The fact is Rash has an excellent chance to be the best of the three pitchers the Phillies chose last year among Watson, Gueller and Rash.

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        1. Then it’s Rash’s fault he didn’t sign. He was offered a lot of money to play baseball for the Phillies and decided against it.

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          1. No he was not. Watson and Gueller were offered a lot of money and took it.

            Rash was never given that option. He no doubt would have taken $700,000 in cash but Montgomery forbid the farm people from going over slot, and they did not go over slot by even one dollar with anyone, in fact they finished under their slot allotments.

            The Phillies policy was “Take slot or less than that or you’re going to college.”

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            2. Yes, the Phillies will go over slot for later picks, as they did with Colvin and Shreve and Dom Brown and Cosart. They will not go over slot with one of the early picks or for the draft as a whole. Year after year their draft $ magically came in at the Selig recommendations for the first 10 rounds bonuses. Apparently, they just couldn’t ever find enough players whom they liked enough to spend more than the overall Selig guidelines. Our scouts looked and looked, but year after year found that there just wasn’t anyone else out there.

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            3. Brody Colvin receved over 400% more than his slot value in the 8th round. 900K bonus.

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            6. Brody only got that in literally the last hour when the Phillies couldn’t get a deal done with Jake Stewart. Once Stewart didn’t sign the Phillies upped the offer to Colvin. Even with the Colvin signing the Phillies were still last or next to last in MLB draft spend in 2009.

              Ironically Jake Stewart was the guy it seemed they coveted that year above everyone else. They told Andrew Susac to enjoy Oregon when he asked for over $800K. But from reports they were willing to offer that to Jake Stewart.

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  22. I voted for other (Robert Kamisnky). HS lefty with a lot of upside. I think he should be added to the poll.

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    1. There have not been many 5’11 HS pitchers taken in the top 10 draft picks recently. Even less, described as having a lot of upside.

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      1. And he’s probably only 5’11” when he is wearing his Lebron James sneakers. Scouts who like HS players under 6 foot are notorious for adding a coupe of inches to their profile.

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        1. I like that he is local but, no! Lefty reliever, sure he can get away at HS but I dont think that his motion can hold up with his build. Good stuff though, it just doesn’t project for starter stuff and that’s what it would take to go top 15

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    1. Nearly every college player selected in the 1st round has a chance to go straight to Low A. The advanced guys will be in high A, by the end of the season. Moran and Appel may start in High A.

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    1. The Phillies also have four picks in the top 100 for the second straight year.
      “We’re excited about that,” Wolever said. “We’ve done a lot of homework on a lot of players. We think from those top 100 we’re going to get four good ones.”

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      1. I’m hoping for a combo of either: (a) #16 JP Crawford, #53 Drew Ward, #89 Steven Gonzalves, HS LHP #96 AJ Vanegas RHP. Or (B) #16 Dom Smith, #53 Oscar Mercado, #89 Carlos Salazar, HS RHP and Pitcher (C)#16 Jon Denney, #53 Travis Demerrite, and any combination of the 3 pitchers pitchers.

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        1. I’ve just finished reading all 500 of the BA 500 (wife hates me) and watching a ton of video over the past month. I really want a SS with one of these top 100 picks and would be happy with Unroe, Neuhaus, Arroyo or Morrison assuming JP is gone at 16. A high upside OF like Boldt, Paroubeck, Sandberg, Woodman, or Ivan Wilson would be great too with Boldt for some reason being my favorite.

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  27. I think our poll may bea little off. I don’t thnk it is common that 5 of the 1st 9 players selected would be HS players. I think Shipley and or Stanek goes in the top 8.

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  28. International Draft Scrubbed in 2014 because: Ben Badler reports,
    ‘ According to a petition collected by four prominent representatives of Latin American amateur players, the majority of Latin American big leaguers do no support an international draft.
    During spring training last year, Amauris Nina, Nelson Montes de Oca and Astin Jacobo from the International Prospect League in the Dominican Republic and Jose Montero of Venezuela traveled around Florida and Arizona to meet with Latin American players on 40-man rosters and asked them to sign a petition stating their opposition to an international draft. The petition was sent to the MLBPA, a copy of which was obtained by Baseball America. The group collected more than 150 signatures and features some of the game’s biggest stars, including Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Felix Hernandez, Elvis Andrus, Mariano Rivera, Carlos Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion, Pablo Sandoval, Carlos Santana and Hanley Ramirez. Prominent Cuban players like Yoenis Cespedes, Kendrys Morales and Leonys Martin all signed the petition. So did several players from Puerto Rico, including Carlos Beltran and Yadier Molina, even though Puerto Rico is already subject to the June draft. For MLB to begin an international draft in 2014, it must submit its plans in writing to the MLBPA by Saturday, after which the union has until June 15 to either accept or veto the plan. The two sides have already been meeting to discuss plans through the International Talent Committee, which includes representatives of the commissioner’s office and the union, although none of them work in international scouting or represent international amateur players.’

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      1. Political correctness. Latins make up almost 30% of MLB. Quite frankly, it probably is a slap in the face of the American fan who pays money to see his or her team win. However, the monetary ceiling/cap now in place with the new CBA is what the union, the Latin players and the Latin agents feel should suffice ilo of a draft.

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        1. Yeah, but the other 70% of the guys in baseball are guys who are drafted, so this isn’t exactly discriminatory against the Latin American talent. If Americans can be drafted into slavery, so can Latin Americans.

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  29. Callisto has us taking Dominic Smith. I think between him and Crawford would be the best case scenario. I feel like this draft is so important for the phillies, not just because of the high draft pick. With the team getting old, the need for a good farm system is essential. This draft is huge.

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  30. At Ole Miss regional game right now. Watching Bobby Wahl. Saw him last summer with team USA and he was a lock for #1, he had ace material. Now he can only maintain his stuff for about 30-50 pitches… Closer material, it isn’t likely that he would fall to the second round, but he would certainly be an arm to watch out for. Deadly breaking ball and 95+ Fastball

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  31. Question: Is there a HS player, that could be this year’s Addison Russell? A player that may be ranked as barely a 1st round pick, but has a chance to be the best of all HS draftees with some small improvements?

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    1. Russell went #11 overall so not sure he’s a good example of an overlooked prospect but from what I read I see Unroe, Peterson, Michalczewski, and Arroyo as MIF’s that could surprise but not be taken in 1st, then Boldt, Paroubeck, and Sandberg in the OF. Blake Taylor, Devin Williams, Jacob Brentz, and Hollon are Supplemental to 2nd rd pitchers that could be special with some adjustments.

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      1. Addison Russell went #11, but I believe he was rated in the 30’s by both MLB and BA. There were ooh’s and aah’s when the A’s drafted him, because it looked like a reach. It was thought that he was waay too big to play any SS, so he improved his conditioning a little bit, and he is probably a top 30 prospect now.

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          1. the only reason he was so low was his preseason ranking. Russell came into his senior season in a different body, played sparkling defense and straight hit. He has serious helium in May of 2012. Baseball America and some of the other content out there isnt getting the latest details all the time on just how good some prep players are playing in the spring. Shortstops are hard to find which makes them so valuable…. this is why I think Tim Anderson doesnt even make it to us at 16.

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            1. Well that’s what I’m asking. Is there a HS player that is consistently being projected as a late 1st, early 2nd, that BA hasn’t caught on to yet? Someone that has a chance to be better than Frazier, Meadows and Ball?

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            2. well Kohl Stewart is a step above Ball. If Ball goes to short season and dominates he would be ahead of Stewart in rankings…. I think actually Tim Anderson if hes legit his ceiling is incredibly high. Imagine if he comes out gang busters in pro ball this summer. You could see him in top 25 rankings.

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            3. Here’s one for you. From PG

              “If that scenario is going to repeat itself this spring, the player who is the potential Mike Trout, the player scouts and fans look back and say, “What were we/they thinking when we didn’t pick this guy when we had a chance?,” that player might be Connecticut high school outfielder Thomas Milone. “

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            5. Here’s something on Milone from Mike Rosebaum at Prospect Pipeline. He is in the 7 most OVER-rated prospects.

              5. Thomas Milone, OF, Masuk HS (Conn.)

              Primarily a football player during his amateur career, Milone is an outstanding athlete at 6’0″, 185 pounds, with baseball skills that lag well behind his raw tools. On the field, the outfielder’s lack of experience is apparent in all facets of his game.

              Milone’s swing is weak and inefficient, as he’s been forced to figure things out on the fly since taking to the diamond. Currently, the one outstanding aspect of his game is his speed, which may allow him to remain in center field at the next level.

              Unlike Lewis Brinson and D.J. Davis—the premier raw but toolsy prep players selected in the 2012 draft—Milone is already significantly behind the developmental curve. And while his athleticism suggests that he may be able to tap into some of that potential down the road, Milone is not a Day 1-caliber player.

              My concern is the Anthony Hewitt went to HS in CT and was so over-rated too. Milone would be a significant project and is he worth a 2nd round selection or 3rd?

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        2. Scott Rolen was a 2nd round pick, so was Jimmy Rollins and Greg Maddux. All from high school.

          David Wright was taken in the sandwich round.

          The biggest variables are in high school players.

          Delmon Young was the first pick of the draft out of high school.

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  32. I’ve mentioned for years that I don’t think you can burn the candle at both ends,” said Marti Wolever, the Phillies’ assistant general manager in charge of scouting. “Look at the dollars spent by teams like Washington and Kansas City over the last five years and some other folks internationally and that’s going to equate to great players. When you don’t have the picks and you pick lower and you play by the rules, you’re going to get in the back of the line.”
    ========’and you play by the rules’——-Phillies are an honorable team.

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    1. Except there weren’t rules, there were Selig’s preferences and polite suggestions. No harm could befall a team for ignorning these suggestions in the interest of winning.

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      1. “I think we’ve gone back to more pure scouting versus walking in and buying what you want,” Wolever said. “This is more about your scouting ability now and I think that’s the way it is supposed to be.”
        The draft rules changed last season. Severe penalties have been installed for teams that exceed their allotment of draft cash. The Phillies have a pool of just over $6 million this season, which ranks 22d among 30 teams. The Braves rank 26th at $4.5 million and the Nationals are last at $2.7 million.

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        1. It’s tiered. Up to 5% over and it’s a 75% fine on the overage. Up to 10% over and it’s a 100% fine on the overage and lost of the next First Round pick. Up to 15% over and it’s 100% tax and loss of the next two First Round picks (I’m doing this off the top of my head, so % of overage may be off a few points).
          Any unsigned picks in the First 10 rounds, their money is removed from the pool (so you can’t have a $6mm dollar pool and just draft two guys and pay them $3mm a piece and be done.
          Also the pool only applies to the first 10 rounds. Different set of rules for 11-40.

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    2. Roccum, you love to spend other peoples money forgetting baseball is a business. All busineses need to make a profit.

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    1. If that is the case, then tne monetary aspect of the international signing becomes the enforcement tool for equity. There is more then one way to skin a cat, and I look for Selig to modify it in a few years, since a majority of the owners want more monetary restrictions and a more level playing field so to speak, with penalties possibly being steeper. The Union’s stubborness to compromise, will only hurt the Latin youngster in the long-run since there may be fewer dollars for them.

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    1. I’ve been thinking he would go top 12, all along. I really can’t see what Stewart and Ball have over him, as far as stuff. But I guess it must be future projection.

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      1. Ive seen Stewart in person 3 times. Never seen his fastball over 94, but his new slider is devastating and he also throws a curve and change up. He shows them all and throws them all for strikes. Ball and Stewart were known commodities coming into their senior season so I expect thats why these publications are only on them. I say known commodities as they had been scouted heavily.

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      2. All three of these guys have great stuff, but Stewart’s secondary pitches (especially his slider) are reportedly much more developed than Bickford’s. Ball has less risk than Bickford, as Ball is also a legit high-end OF prospect if the pitching doesn’t work out.

        Bickford may have as much upside as the other two, but he would probably take longer to develop and he also has more bust potential.

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          2. Well, that just pushes somebody else down to the Phillies. Hopefully it is one of the two HS bats, Crawford or Smith.
            I’ve been reading that Renfroe’s stop has dropped recently.

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      2. Ok so he looks really good in a CIF SS Div. 4 game, but he will probably open next year in Low A and do you really think those 22 year old hitters are going to be swinging at all those fastballs out of the zone. Eehhh nope.
        Also he attends Oaks Christian which if you didn’t know is the single most expensive school in SoCal and I’m talking like 40k a year. Students that have gone there in the recent past have parents with names such as Will Smith, Wayne Gretsky, Joe Montana.
        I can give a pass on the Div. 4 competition but having a silver spoon in your mouth and attending such a soft and cuddly school, to me doesn’t equate to a guy being able to pitch at Citizens in front of 50k jacked up Philly fans.
        I’ll pass and go get a kid that comes from a little tougher area, thank you very much.

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        1. Germantown Friends is $30K a year; more than my tuition at Temple. I doubt you’d say that about Biddle. Wealth envy is a sad, sad thing.

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        1. Not so sure Watson repeats. The development staff is actually happy with his development. Touching 96 often and gaining good command of 4 seam fb, his 2 seam has been taken away, working on his change up a lot and having him try to go one time through the order without the CB.

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            1. Yeah I grew with him, as well as with Crawford and Smith so I get a little inside info about these guys, just makes me wonder how many other players are having to work on some stuff and their numbers aren’t spectacular. If we only knew, it would probably calm some people down on here.
              Side note: I’m praying we get Crawford.

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            3. Yeah so, it has stupid/sick movement and with the smaller strike zone and more patient batters (more patient than HS guys) he’s having a little trouble getting called strikes. Also it’s like high 80’s low 90’s, while the 4 seam is low to mid 90’s and hopefully will go higher, plus his got better command of it than the 2 seam.
              So taking it away is forcing him to throw harder, with more command and compliments his change up more.

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            4. Thanks for the info it’s great. I know most pitching prospects are usually working on a certain pitch or command of one so when I look at their stats I take them with a grain of salt. Anyway I can get an unbiased scouting report on both Crawford and Smith from you?

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            5. Unbiased from me? Prolly not. I’m a Crawford fan all the way. Shane, JP and myself played baseball together since like 6 years old. We didn’t start playing ball with Dom till teenage years.
              That being said, they’re both obviously excellent players. I think you get more versatility with JP, if SS doesn’t work you can move him to the outfield, I would say CF. He’s much faster than Dom but not blazing speed, just a really good all around athlete.
              Dom has more power but not real fast and left-handed, so you get firstbase or a corner outfield maybe. If those don’t work you might give him a shot at pitching, low 90’s from the left side.
              I just don’t pick a projected firstbaseman that high. Therefore I go with JP. Although I don’t think he gets to 16, Dom maybe.

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  37. My hope for our first 4 picks
    16. Phil Bickford (unless Smith falls)
    53. Cord Sandberg
    89. Casey Shane (really hoping he falls here, he’d be a steal)
    96. Cody Reed

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    1. Bickford had 18Ks and a one hitter (infield hit) yesterday, in his state championship game.

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      1. Well that makes me even more excited about him and at this point he might not even make it to 16

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      2. That’s superb, but CA doesn’t have a state championship in baseball due to the size of the state and the amout of teams. It has 10 sections and each section has about 10 divisions.
        So his performance albeit superb was in the Southern Section (arguably the best in the state) Division 4 (arguably not very strong) championship game.

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          1. True but for CA it’s a very low division. For example Smith plays in division 3 and Crawford plays in division 1 with a school enrollment of about 4000 students.

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  38. Law has his new mock out and has Kohl Stewart fallling to the Phillies. Hopefully he would be signable at that point. Also says the Phillies are on Clarkin, Bickford, Devin Williams and Austis Wilson(please no)

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    2. Don’t want Austin Williams, Judge or Tim Anderson, (he said they were on him last week).

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        1. I like what I have read about him, but I haven’t read anything by Callis or Law, linking the Phillies to him.

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    3. Keith Law now has both Kohl Stewart and JP Crawford available when the Phillies pick. I don’t think that will happen, but I likes.

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      1. The only way Stewart falls that far is if teams have major sign-ability concerns about him, which is possible as he is reportedly a solid commit to play football at Texas A&M. And if there are sign-ability concerns, the Phillies won’t draft him at #16.

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        2. The thinking is that there are only 2 obvious spots for him to fall. That would be #4 or #7. If Moran goes #1, that throws off #4, because Gray or Appel may be available.at 4. So if Boston prefers Meadows and Frazier to Stewart, there is no obvious spot for him to get selected. Now that Bickford, along with Ball are rated as highly, teams (Royals) may select either one of them over Stewart, to avoid the uncertainty of the negotiations.

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  39. Clarkin i have read a lot about him. and was really thinking he was the pick, but went to his video. not a pitching coach, but he seems to be really wild, and all over the place. scary to me at 16 to take him,

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  40. semi-breaking news

    OU’s Jonathan Gray tested positive for Adderall (he doesn’t have a ‘scrip)….That will have an effect on his draft position and contract demands. I don’t see him fallin’ to #16….but it still seemed notable.

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  41. Ben Nicholson-Smith:
    Why can’t teams trade draft picks? ‘Well technically teams can trade picks — at least in some instances. Picks obtained in baseball’s new competitive balance lottery can be traded.
    The Marlins acquired a competitive balance selection from the Pirates (35th overall) and the Tigers and Marlins swapped competitive balance picks. In general, however, picks cannot be traded. Many general managers have expressed support for the possibility, noting that it would provide savvy teams with another way of obtaining an advantage over their competitors.’

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  42. I don’t believe for one second, that the draft will match the 1st 13 picks of this mock draft, but if it played out this way, I would be very happy. That would leave the Phillies with a chance to get one of the players on my board (wish list).
    JP Crawford
    Phil Bickford
    Dom Smith
    Jon Denney
    Chris Anderson
    Phil Ervin

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    1. The last three guys on your list will very likely be available at #16. Smith and Bickford are iffy IMO. Crawford will probably be gone.

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    2. I don’t want any of those back guys. But with Bickford climbing it means that one of Bickford, Crawford, Smith, or Ball will drop to the Phillies (hard to see it being Stanek or Peterson dropping out of the top 15)

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      1. I would also be fine with Nick Ciuffo, Matt Krook or Hunter Harvey, but I wouldn’t go so far, as to wish for them.

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      2. I’d love for the Phils to pick Ball but can’t see him falling to #16. Same goes for Peterson. There may be a shot for Crawford but he’ll probably be gone as well. Of the players you list, Bickford, Smith, and Stanek are the guys most likely to be available IMO.

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        1. I am sure all these guys have risks and issues.
          Stiff delievery for Stanek. Huge helium effect from Bickford. Smith limited to 1B. Crawford’s bat and speed are questionable.

          Pitchers are the most risky. At least power arms have a chance as relievers as a fallback.
          Hitting is still critical in my opinion though advanced metrics seems to show that defense is important.

          Agree that if Ball falls he’d be a good match for Phillies (lefty pitcher, super athletic, two way player option). Though Smith might be limited to 1B I’d like to get a good plate discipline great hitter and worry about position later. With a great arm he might be okay in RF. My issue with Crawford is that he could very easily profile as an average SS. Without plus speed he really will not have any carrying skill in the majors.

          I could see Peterson fall if teams think he is limited to 1B only.
          What is the opinion on Manaea at this point? Probably not a good option for Phillies due to signability issues but if he recovers could be the best pitcher from the draft.

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          1. Agree about Dom Smith – get the advanced hit tool and worry about position later.

            Manaea obviously has an injury risk for a high pick, especially a hard-throwing pitcher. No idea what his long term prognosis is, or whether the Phillies would feel comfortable with that risk.

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            1. I worry about how much Manaea will sign for. A couple of months ago he was poised as a possible 1:1. He will probably go down the Appel road.

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  43. ive been following this stuff for the past 5 months and have no idea who I really want them to pick. But I think theres value in all 3 top 100 picks. Id like Tim Anderson, Ball or Bickford. I wouldnt be disappointed with Devin Williams or Serrano.

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    1. I have been following it for a week and I have no idea either.
      However, it does seem that there is a sort of consensus on the Top15 or so prospects so hopefully one of the higher ranked guys sneaks through.
      I like Chris Anderson since I prefer pitchers who seem to have good control with above average fastballs rather than plus fastballs.

      Though I’d be willing to bet that the Cardinals picks at #19 and #29 will be better than Phillies pick at #16. Cardinals drafts have been sensational.

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  44. I was wondering if there were any guys that weren’t a reach that you would really hate the Phillies to draft at 16. Please don’t justify with “He’s just like Hewitt cuz he’s toolzy!”

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    2. Thing is Hewitt was very much a reach when the Phillies drafted him since he was general rated as a third round pick.

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  45. How about Austin Wilson? Last week’s comments about “a top position player from last year who might be available” sounds like him. He sure seems like a Phillies pick. I like some of the prep bats better but give him the edge over Ervin and many of the pitchers. .Would Wilson cost less to sign than a highly rated prep prospect like Ball or Smith?

    I’m sure most posters have seen the results of the minorleagueball community mock by now:
    16) J.P. Crawford, SS, California HS
    53) Justin Williams, OF, Louisiana HS
    89) Dom Nunez, C, California HS
    96) Mike Shawaryn, RHP, New Jersey HS
    121) Adam Plutko, RHP, UCLA
    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/6/2/4389166/2013-minor-league-ball-community-mock-draft-results-nl-east

    I gotta admit, I don’t love Crawford at 16, but I’d be tripping over my feet to draft a prep shortstop with any pick after the 1st round. That being said, I’d be very happy if the draft went like that. I’m sure finances will factor into the decisions, as always, so I doubt the top 5 picks will really look like the list above. I would absolutely love Justin Williams at 53 though. Cord Sandberg is another option I’m sure we’ll consider there.

    I just love the prep bats in this draft and would take as many as possible: Dustin Peterson, Drew Ward
    ,Trey Williams, John Denney, Zach Collins, Rowdy Tellez, in addition to Sandberg, Justin Williams and Dom Smith. I wouldn’t mind if we ignored all other tools and concentrated on hit and power in this draft, because its such an organizational need.

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  47. Kind of have a feeling the Phils get Dominic Smith here and I dont believe that the quote from Marti Woelever had anything to do with the voting…sarcasm alert!

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  48. If that’s the players on the board at the pick, I’d like to see them take Judge. But they won’t and probably will take Smith if he’s there.

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    1. Judge strikes me as the Phillies type pick (power with questionable hit tool), but I’d much rather have Smith.

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    2. Not Judge at #16, please. In the 2nd round, okay, though that isn’t realistic, Don’t need another guy with great power but questionable contact skills. Much, much, much prefer Dom Smith.

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    3. Judge would be a superb 2nd round pick for them, but he will be long gone. Not sure I would take a chance on him at the 16th spot. However, with 80 games at CBP he probably would pop 20 HRs alone, and also have 80/85 Ks.

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    4. The guy who could make a difference faster then Judge would in the outfield , IMO, would be Samford’s Phil Ervin. I think he will make an impact in the MLB with whoever drafts him.

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  50. BA’s final mock draft.
    16. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES: Philadelphia’s priority appears to be a bat, which could mean Crawford, Smith or East Central (Miss.) CC shortstop Tim Anderson. The Phillies also might not be afraid to invest in Bickford or Manaea.

    PROJECTED PICK: Dominic Smith.
    (Mock draft 1.0: J.P. Crawford/2.0: Ian Clarkin/3.0: Dominic Smith)

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  51. I want no part of Manaea, Anderson, Denney, or Judge at #16. It is too high of a pick to risk on injury or questionable hit tool.

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    1. They risked it with Hamels at #17 and that turned out well. That said, I’m sure there will be a fine player available with less of a risk worth taking with a bright future.

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      1. Hamels was extremely healthy and lights out. It was the fear of his injury HISTORY that allowed him to drop. Manaea has a bad shoulder, which is the worst thing you can have at 21 years old.

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        1. In retrospect, I really don’t get why people were so afraid of Hamels’s injury before he was drafted. He broke his arm sophomore year? That sounds more like a fluke than anything you’d expect to recur (like, as you said, a bad shoulder). Maybe I’m missing something.

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    1. From what I’ve read there is a more of a question on Anderson’s hit tool. Hit tool is the most important thing to me.

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  53. QUESTION? If Appel get drafted and doesn’t sign does he become a Free Agent after the deadline to sign picks or does the team who drafted him have until next season’s draft?

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    2. Appel can sign at any point up to 7 days before the 2014 draft (that is what we call leverage) because he is out of college eligibility. As long as he is selected and doesn’t sign he will never be a free agent. He would have to go unselected to be a free agent.

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  54. From Mlbrumors:

    Other teams believe that the Royals have reached a deal to take right-handed high schooler Phil Bickford with the eighth overall pick, Peter Gammons reports (Twitter link). Bickford, who is committed to Cal State Fullerton, hasn’t been evaluated as No. 8 pick material — Baseball America ranks Bickford as the 20th best prospect in the draft, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo has him at No. 26 and ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider subscription required) has him all the way down at No. 55.

    The Twins will take right-handed high schooler Kohl Stewart with the fourth overall pick, a source “with a stake in the Twins’ draft” tells Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN.com

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  55. I say the Phillies choose Josh Hart.

    You know in your heart he’s the perfect Phillies over draft.

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