So You Want a High School Pitcher

2013 Draft, Other Stuff

After taking a week and a half off from looking at the draft it is time to look at what high school pitchers might be available in the 1st and 2nd round this year.

Off the Board:

Kohl Stewart – RHP – Texas

Stewart might have the best raw stuff of any pitcher in the draft and has been climbing quickly up draft boards.  Stewart won’t fall out of the Top 10 but what the Astros do at #1 could affect where he will end up.  At that high a pick all of his signability concerns are irrelevent

Trey Ball – LHP – Indiana

A month ago there was a realistic chance that Ball could fall to 16 but he has shown a fastball that is 91-94 even in the cold wet whether and is now firmly in the Top 10 discussion.  He has some promise in the field do but at 6′ 6″ with great athleticism his future is on the mound.

1st Round:

Ian Clarkin – LHP – California

Clarkin has a plus fastball that sits 90-92 but can touch 94, he matches that with a curveball that already flashes plus.  The changeup shows at least average potential, but lacks consistency.  Clarkin is a bit small at 6′ 2″ which gives some scouts pause.

Rob Kaminsky – LHP – New Jersey

Kaminisky’s fastball sits 89-92 touching 94+ and he is the makings of an average changeup.  His curveball is a plus pitch now and could be the best in the draft.  The problem is Kaminisky is a filled out 5′ 11″, leaving little room for potential, scouts are also worried that he won’t be able to keep the ball down.

Hunter Harvey – RHP – North Carolina

Hunter’s fastball sits mostly in the low 90s but he has reportedly gotten it up to 97 this spring.  The changeup and curveball have potential but they are mainly flashes.  At 6′ 3″ 175lbs there is some room for projection that he could hold plus plus velocity as starter.

Phil Bickford – RHP – California

At this point Bickford is all fastball, but it might be a 70 grade pitch that consistently is up to 95-96, with room for enough projection that it could be an elite pitch.  The secondary pitches are lacking but the clean arm action and fastball give him plenty of potential.

Hunter Green – LHP – Kentucky

Green has been inconsistent this spring but when he is on he shows you a fastball that can touch 95 to go with a changeup and curveball that show plus potential.  There are some mechanical things to work on, but at 6′ 4″ 180lbs there is big potential here.

Matt Krook – LHP – California

Krook has been rising quickly up draft boards this spring.  He can bring a fastball that sits 90-92 touching 95 with good downward movement.  The curveball has at least plus potential and the changeup shows promise.  Krook is 6′ 4″ so there is plenty of potential there as well.

Connor Jones – RHP – Virginia

Given where he will go in the draft and his strong commitment to UVA, Jones may be the toughest sign of the first round.  His fastball has plus velocity but also really heavy downward movment.  The changeup and slider have potential but are works in progress.

Devin Williams – RHP – Missouri

Williams velocity jump this spring has some scouts higher on him then others.  The fastball can touch 95 and the changeup has good movement.  The breaking ball is inconsistent, as are his mechanics.  The big draw is that there is lot of filling out he can do which gives scouts plenty to dream on.

2nd Round

Kyle Serrano – RHP – Tennessee

Serrano offers less projection then other HS pitchers in the draft as the velocity is average sitting more 90-92 touching 94.  The changeup and curveball will flash plus, he will move quick because of his good feel for pitching.  He is committed to Tennessee where is father is the head coach, so it could be a tough sign.

Dustin Driver – RHP – Washington

An athletic pitcher out of the Pacific Northwest, Driver will bring a fastball that touches 93-94 and a solid power breaking ball.  The changeup is well behind the other pitches.  He has already maxed out is projection and will be 19 at the time of the draft.  Some scouts think he will be better off in a bullpen role long term.

Blake Tayler – LHP – California

Taylor has a low-90s fastball and will flash a plus curveball.  The changeup has good life but is very inconsistent.  He is big, projectable, and left handed which should make him go at least in the 2nd.

Robert Tyler – RHP – Georgia

Tyler offers a fastball topping out at 94 but there is room for more velocity.  He shows good potential for a changeup and curveball but they will need work.

Jacob Brentz – LHP – California

Brentz has the best left handed fastball in the class with reports of him touching 100 this spring.  The delivery has some problems but he does have an average changeup to go with the fastball.  The curveball is a work in progress.  He might go as early as the late first round if a team thinks they can fix the mechanics while keeping the electric fastball.

Summary:

With Ball and Stewart off the board there is not a whole lot of difference in the next tier of pitchers.  If the Phillies go that route, Krook and Green may be slight reaches but they offer a package that has worked for the Phillies before.  Overall when it comes the HS pitchers in this class they all have their problems and the board can be very fluid depending on a scouts opinion of how secondary arsenals and mechanics look.

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

42 thoughts on “So You Want a High School Pitcher”

    1. It is a good fastball due to sinking tailing movement (tops out at 94 or so). He has a decent changeup but the breaking ball is a work in progress. I don’t see him going before the 3rd round but it just takes one team to fall in love and not think we will last to their next pick.

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  2. Thanks for the writeup. I am hoping if they go this route in the 1st, then a HS Shortstop in the 2nd (Peterson, Unroe, Neuhus), or if JP Crawford falls to 16 then do the opposite and grab a HS Pitcher in the 2nd. Can’t wait until June 6th.

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  3. “An athletic pitcher out of the Pacific Northwest”

    When I saw that phrase I thought, “welcome to Clearwater, Dustin Driver.”

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    2. “He has already maxed out is projection and will be 19 at the time of the draft.”

      That’s their boy. No one loves 19 year old “high school” guys more than the Phillies. It’s hard to find a 19 year old draftee that ever became anything in MLB. Shane Watson and what’s his name (I actually forget, hey he’s not pitching anywhere) were their first two picks last year and both were just a few months from their 19th birthdays.

      There’s a reason they are bigger and stronger than the other high school kids, it’s because they are college freshman guys playing against high school kids. They look like men among boys because they are men among boys.

      The early part of the last decade the Phillies drafted a 19 year “high school” pitcher in the second round. His first name was Zach and I referred to him as “Short Bus Zach”. I think the Phillies front office might have some short bus grads.

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  5. Any thoughts on the chance the Phillies are anyone else draft Andrew Strenge out of the U of Cincinnati? He is a local guy from Holy Ghost prep and had a pretty good college career.

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  6. I wonder when I see things like Kaminsky listed at 5’11”. As I recall Jimmy Rollins was listed at something like 6′.

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    1. As you go from high school, through college to professional athletics, your height shrinks exponentially. It is a great American mystery.

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  7. At #16, I think I’d prefer a postion player, and I think the value is there. If I were to go HS pitcher, the three pitchers I would consider would be Phil Bickford, Matt Krook and Ian Clarkin. Phil Bickford throws 95, and his delivery looks effortless. I could see him growing into a 100 mph arm. Matt Krook throws with a lot of leverage and gets his legs into it. I think he is a sleeper, and has a chance to be very good. Ian Clarkin has multiple plus pitches already, so I could see the rational in taking him at 16.

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    1. LHP Hunter Green is the best pitcher after Ball and Stewart.

      Green’s pitches are described as having extreme movement. Every pitch including his fastball and he has the making of a good changeup as well as having a solid foundation for his curve and slider. Best of all he doesn’t turn 18 until July 12th (don’t tell the Phillies front office about his birthday).

      A sleeper after the first round is Zach Rice from Suffolk Virginia. He’s a 6′ 3″ LHP who’s been getting stronger (better fastball velocity) steadily as he has gotten older and he won’t have his 18th birthday until October (don’t tell Phillies front office about his birthday).

      That said, I want high school BATS and lots of them in the high rounds. The Phillies can’t hit because they won’t pay for MLB bats and they won’t use high picks on bats. They have an obsessive focus on pitching and you see the result. They can’t hit their way out of a paper sack.

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  8. At first, I said we should concentrate on getting a RF righty college OFer w power. But since then there has been some good movement of our present prospect OFers: Altherr in particular AND w Franco (another HR tonight…#9) likely bringing righty power to the lineup, I now would like to see us choosing pitchers in the first 3 rounds…mostly HS guys.

    The pitcher prospects in our system could use a shot in the arm (sorry) to use Lee to get a damn good “ready” OF PROSPECT along w a couple of superior pitchers close to the bigs.

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      2. Exactly, I would like to add a warning to those looking for quick solutions. In 2011 the Mariners took Danny Hultzen #2 because he was expected to be there quickly, he is still in AAA and has maybe a #3 starter ceiling going forward. They passed on Bundy, Rendon, Bradley, Lindor, Bauer, and Jose Fernandez (and many others) some of which have already made the majors with much higher upside.

        There are so many variables that you want the best talent at the time they get to the majors (this doesn’t mean highest upside, but best combination of upside and the tools to make it to the majors with that upside realized)

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  9. We really do lack pitching depth in our system. I’d love to see us get Hunter Harvey, a sure fire signee, or Phil Bickford.

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    1. Hamels, Lee, Halladay, Adams, Papelbon.

      Now look at the lineup. Money for pitching keeps going up while money for hitters continues to disappear. You tell me how the horrible, simply unwatchable offense of this team is going to be fixed.

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  10. One HS pitcher not mentioned as a 2nd round possibility is Carlos Salazar. He is a consensus top 100 talent, and he throws 99mph. He doesn’t fit the Phillies usual profile, because he is only 6’0 feet tall, but he should be mentioned because the Phillies do like loud tools.

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  12. The whole idea that we would not sign Bourn or Swisher to keep this pick, I was always in the mindset that at 16 it would give us a chance to get a possible future star. I want a bat here that at least has a chance of becoming a star. I don’t care what position.

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    1. Give me one of the best avaiulable college hitters, just not anymore Chad McConnells.

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    2. Losing this pick isn’t the only reason they wouldn’t sign Bourne or Swisher. Signing them would have put them well over the luxury tax also.

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      1. Aye, Bourn oor Swisher would have lost them a pick and tied them to a another big salary for declining production for a piece that wouldn’t be a difference maker this year or be a significant part of what gets this team to the playoffs in the future

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  13. Baseball America’s most recent mock draft has the Phillies selecting HS pitcher, Ian Clarkin. It seems the whole draft board has been thrown off due to a perceived injury to former consensus top 5 pick, Sean Manaea.

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    1. He had arm stiffness and didn’t throw a pitch, after warming up for his last start on Tuesday. Callis has him falling nearly out of the 1st round, to the Yankees.

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      1. Velocity has been down all year as well, he was mid 90s on the Cape and has been more hi-80s all season.

        Signability is the big cause of the fall. People are assuming he is going to want Top 10 money to not go back for his senior year.

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        1. A few differences. Giolito was a HS senior throwing 100 and Manea was a college guy throwing 94. Also, Giolito had an elbow injury that required Tommy John, while Manea has a shoulder problem. Shoulders are scarier than elbows.

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      3. I don’t want Manea. I’ve never had an interest in him for even a few seconds, but his agent is Scott Boras and the Phillies have boycotted Boras in the draft for fifteen years. It’s shocking that there is no recognition of this fact on this board.

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          1. Who the Phillies had no intention of signing. They knew the price was an $11 million MLB contract before the draft and they took Drew for the sole purpose of preventing another MLB team from paying him. Blew off the second pick of the draft to do that.

            Mike Arbuckle did not want to draft Gavin Floyd, he wanted to take Mark Teixeira. He said so before the draft in an interview with Larry Shenk on the Phillies web site. Arbuckle said he could not draft Teixeira because his agent was Scott Boras. This was never reported in the Philadelphia media.

            You don’t think the Phillies farm staff knew who Matt Harvey was coming out of high school? Everyone did. They also knew his price was a $4 million bonus and Scott Boras was his agent. Harvey’s stuff was ridiculous then, particularly his curveball. I remember seeing him on TV the following year as a college freshman. The ball was above the waist as it got to the batter and the catcher caught it below their ankles.

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    1. Phillies pick #16, #53, #89 and #96. 6 million dollar draft pool. Slots amounts should be roughly 2.3 million, 950K, 550K and 500K.

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  16. Oh no. Now I’m worried that Clarkin is injured and the Phillies crack medical team will be called in to tell them what a steal he is. Another Savery situation? No thanks.

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  17. You know the Phillies are picking a college senior with the Alec Rash pick because they have no leverage with it. It’s just like with J.D. Drew.

    David Montgomery must be proud of himself.

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