Brody Colvin comes back into the pen in Reading with mixed results, giving up a HR and a walk (and a tie game) in two innings, before Anthony Hewitt gets his first AA HR in 3-run-walk-off fashion. Cameron Rupp also had a 3-run HR in that contest – his ISO sits at .228 right now, inflated by two 2B and two HR in three days, but impressive, nonetheless.
Two hits, two steals, and another throwing error for Roman Quinn.
And Perci Garner with another pretty good start. He’s still walking a few too many men, but not by much, (3.64/9, and just over 10%, which is manageable), and his K rate remains high for the year. Still not sure what more A+ innings are doing for him that AA innings wouldn’t at this point. IMO, even if Colvin is eventually going back into the rotation, there’s a spot available. Hector Neris should be back in the pen, and David Buchanan is not a starting pitching prospect at this point, and not worthy of taking up someone else’s innings.
Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.
http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130522
Phuture Phillies 
Aumont back to LV, guess Stutes will get the call up.
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I’m really liking Quinn’s progress this month. I take zero stock in the fielding at this point. If he gets comfortable switch hitting, that is a huge development for this season.
Also on another note – am I the only one who is happy for Anthony Hewitt? I know he is the butt of many jokes, which I understand, but it would be nice to see the guy develop at least into a 4/5th OF regardless of where he was drafted.
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Hewitt wins my contest. He beat Larry Greene to 1st HR club. They were the only 2 in the contest. Congrats Anthony and it was a big one, a walk-off game winner (is that redundant?). Use it as the start of something wonderful.
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Yep. If quinn can continue to get on base and slow the K rate as he has been doing the last 2 weeks or so it would be hard not to get excited about him. As long as he can at least slow the error rate a bit by the end of the season I’ll take it.
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Hopefully we’ll get some scouting opinions on Quinn’s defense at some point this year. Would be nice to have professional eyes see whether he’s doing something correctable with his throwing. Haven’t really heard anything like that from anyone lately.
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Nor have I, and I agree it would be nice have. Often trouble throwing is a footwork problem, which would make sense in this case considering he is new to the positon and the infield in general. If that’s the case we should start seeing some improvements during the second half of the season.
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I’d much rather have him make throwing errors than fielding errors at this point. He’s new to the position so the fact that he’s not making as many fielding errors means he’s getting comfortable there. Throwing errors are almost always because of footwork and those fundamentals can be fixed as time moves on.
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Agreed. Considering, he’s probably spending a lot of time working on batting LH (it would be interesting to know if the Phils are having him focus on that over fielding at this point), I would expect he’s be able to devote more time to IF work once he gets more comfrotable at the plate. We might be seeing signs of that now…
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At what point do we stop using the excuse “he’s new to the position”? I’m not trying to be sarcastic but looking for a serious response. What is the time-frame for someone learning a new position to start showing improvement? Would it be next year that we really start getting worried if the error rate stays the same?
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2015
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I would hope to see some improvement late this season or early next year He’s started less than 100 games at the position- I would at least like to give him a minimum of full season. Would probably even give him 2 full seasons (at least) to show marked improvement considering 1) his age, 2) the fact that he is simultaneously learning to switch hit, and 3) his value at SS so far exceeds what his value would be if he was moved to CF.
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At the very least you give him until the end of this season to assess if there he has made any progress. He is still three years away so you could really wait until the end of next year if need be. I think Derek Jeter is an excellent example of why you don’t need to rush a move away from short. Jeter had 56 errors in low A. While Jeter didn’t go on to be a Gold Glove caliber SS (ironically he has won the award multiple times) he has been more than serviceable.
Also by the end of another year and a half the Phillies would have a better handle on Galvis, Hernandez, Utley, and the multitude of suspect CF (Gillies, Collier, Altherr, Tocci) to assess where Quinn might best fit into future plans. There really is no other quality SS prospect in the organization right now.
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June 15, 2015 @ Reading.
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Since Quinn has only played 106 professional games at SS, a while. After playing 57 games in 1992, Derek Jeter made 56 errors in 1993 at shortstop, a position he grew up playing. Not comparing Jeter and Quinn at all. I’m just saying, be patient.
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It is also very possible that, at this level, the first basemen are not adept at picking up errant throws, so that is another factor that could improve as he moves up in level.
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For all we know he’s getting to balls he has no business getting to and is making off balance throws. At least that’s what I hope it is.
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Why is Colvin in the bullpen? Did I miss something? His numbers this year have been pretty solid.
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He got hurt I believe. Probably just trying to ease him back in.
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Is Rupp now top catching prospect on team? Valle has disappeared and Joseph might not have enough defense to play at ML level. As mentioned above Rupp ISO of .228 is great (.250 is considered excellent). Hi defense was already tops in organization. Could he be Ruiz part 2?
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I think he’s quickly getting there. It also helps that he’s established himself as Biddle’s very own battery mate. Biddle’s best games have come with Rupp behind the plate. It only helps cement his status imo
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Joseph’s still a ways ahead of Rupp simply because of the age difference.
21 year old in AAA > 24 year old in AA.
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but my concern with Joseph is that he has regressed offensively and defensively since coming to club. He definitely has time to turn things around but some of his offensive regression is sustained from ’12 to ’13.
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Except there isn’t much to say he’s actually regressed. His OBP and Slug% both went up after the trade to Reading last year, even though his average dipped slightly. Then he moved up a level this year and has only had 67 at-bats.
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You’re being too harsh on Joseph, but, that aside, if Rupp is their best catcher prospect, they are in a world of hurt. Anything is possible, but Rupp’s chance of being a decent major league regular is less than 1%. He may have a career as a back up in the majors, but,it’s very unlikely he will be more than that.
Of course everyone says, but, but but, Carlos Ruiz. Not realizing that his development was a one in a thousand event. Counting on Rupp as the team’s future catcher is kind of like a lottery winner advising young people to base their financial future on playing the lottery.
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Rupp has intangibles that predict major league.
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I’m not sure where the less than 1% probability derives from, or if it was just rhetorical. But I’m not sure it’s so rare for good defensive catchers to develop into solid major league hitters. To take but one example off the top of my head: in the minors, Yadier Molina had an OPS of .703. Through his first four seasons in the majors, he posted OPS marks of .684, .654, .595 and .708. In other words, he was a below average hitter, even for a catcher. (The average major league catcher last year had an OPS of .717.)
Then, around 2008, Molina really began to blossom as a hitter and last year, his ninth in the league, he posted a .824 OPS and finished 4th in MVP balloting.
My point here isn’t that Rupp is likely to turn into the best catcher in the majors. I’m just saying it’s not THAT unusual for a catcher to develop as a hitter late in his career. Darren Daulton is an example of another guy who really scuffled for a long time before becoming a regular starter, and then an offensive star. (Let’s leave PED questions out of the discussion for now.) I’m just theorizing here, but I wonder if catchers might be more prone than other players to blossom late, just because they’re likely to be given more chances to hang around and figure out hitting if they can play premium level defense.
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I agree that catchers are probably more likely to develop later than other hitters. But I’ll say something about Daulton, mostly because I just like this stat: he walked 106 times (and K’d 87) as a 21 year old when he was in Reading, and had a .911 OPS.
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And in 1986 he had a .391 OBP/.819 OPS–and still was only a part-time player until 1989. I guess people paid more attention to those atrociously low batting averages.
Looking at his numbers, I couldn’t figure out why it took Daulton so long to become a starter. Then I remembered: Lance Parrish.
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I mean, Daulton’s numbers weren’t fantastic in those 1987-1989 years. I was just trying to figure out why a young catcher who OPS’d .819 remained a backup for several years afterward. Ugh. What a terrible free agent signing.
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What do you see that has Rupp pegged as back-up only? Power numbers & defense look ok. He probably would never hit for average. Is it his Base-on-balls?
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I like Rupp more than most, I think, and even I admit that his big and aging body is likely to betray him fairly quickly, especially since he’s not progressed as fast as you’d like a big-time college guy to. I don’t agree with Larry’s “Less than 1%” statement, but for Rupp to be a big league regular on a front-line team for anything more than a couple seasons would surprise me greatly, a big league regular on a second division team for 3-5 years is kind of where I put his reasonable ceiling, with a 5-6 year career as a backup/possible DH/1B option thereafter, if the power is consistent, and I’d say he’s at least as likely to be a career big league backup for maybe 6 years and then a Spring Invite fight-for-a-job type as he is to start for more than 3 years on any team. But his bat progressed last year and his defense is reported to be quite good, and so I’d say he’s much less likely to be a AAAA kind of guy for his whole career than to be a big leaguer. I personally find a good deal of value in that certainty at this point, and the upside is all gravy. He’s not close to the prospect Tommy Joseph is, IMO, and nowhere near the team’s top 10, but he’s not a scrub/org filler with no future either.
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Agreed
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Based on what Rupp has done. I believe best case is that he is a backup like kratz. good defense and occasional homerun. Don’t think he will ever hit for average.
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That settles that.
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I like Rupp a lot. He’s big and strong, plays good defense, calls a good game, appears to be unlocking his power and really plays the position like a good old Texas tough guy, which is precisely what he is. I was at Biddle’s excellent follow up start after his 16 K performance and there was a great play by Rupp. He tagged a runner out at the plate in a rough play where the guy tried to run Rupp over. Rupp got up, stared the guy down, and spiked the ball hard on the ground (as if to say “take that, dude”). It almost started a fight, but it was awesome. If the Phillies fans had seen the play on TV in a major league game, Rupp would have become an instant fan favorite. I like his ability and intensity. You could do a heck of a lot worse than him as your back up catcher and his ceiling might be quite a bit more than that.
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Cameron Rupp = Jason Varitek
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LOL
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I’ll take it!
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I like to think that would happen, however, Varitek was a switch-hitter. But they do have physically similar builds for what that is worth.
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Well, I don’t think that, but I do think Rupp might develop into a decent back up. I think Larry undervalues Rupp a bit because: (a) he doesn’t have to do a hell of a lot of hitting to make the majors as a back-up; (b) to be a back-up, these days they want that guy to hit for a little power so the player can also pinch hit; and (c) catchers, especially the big strong variety, often develop as hitters much later than other players. I actually give Rupp at least a 50/50 chance to make the majors as a back-up. But he’s not Jason Varitek and he’s not even Tommy Joseph – at least the odds say he won’t be.
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I don’t think catchers actually develop any slower than other position. I just looked up the top 15 catchers in WAR over the last 4 years and literally every one of them except Ruiz was in the majors by the time they were 24 (Rupp’s age). Ruiz is an anomaly. If anything, you’d expect a catcher to peak earlier because the position is so demanding physically.
I think Rupp can be a decent backup because the bar is so low offensively for a backup catcher, but I don’t think we can count on much improvement from his bat.
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Rupp as others have said is nowhere close to Joseph. Rupp is the better reciever right now, but Joseph controls the running game better. In their respective time in AA here are their lines:
Rupp (24) – .237/.320/.465
Joseph (20) – .257/.317/.399
Keep in mind that Rupp played a larger percent of games in Reading which favors RH power. Rupp draws walks better and strikesout less but that is mitigated by the fact that he was 4 years older at the level. It would be reasonable to expect Joseph to improve his line in a repeat of AA. His current AAA stats are extremely small sample size. His walk and strikeout rates were down but he also had a .224 BABIP which demonstrates a lot of bad luck.
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It’s hard to judge Joseph. He’s been very young at every level, but never had a really good offensive season, and stumbled with the bat this year, prior to concussion, which is causing him to miss time. Valle also with a big stumble in 2013. Rupp’s batting numbers really aren’t all that good either, especially considering his age. Rather than saying we have these 3 great catching prospects battling it out to be our catcher of the near future, it is less than clear to me that any of these 3 guys will be even an average major league starting catcher. I wouldn’t have said that prior to the start of this season and we are still in SSS territory, so things could look quite different by September.
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Wonder why they moved Pointer down in the lineup yesterday. He was finally starting to hit in the last week or so. I’m not sure if he’s much of a prospect at this point, but he does seem to have the tools the Phils look for.
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Was a lefty pitching against them?
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Yep. Is that something they’ve been doing when there’s a lefty on the mound? I hadn’t noticed- probably because Pointer wasn’t looking like much as a prospect. But since he struggles so much against lefties, wouldn’t it make sense to let him get more ABs (only 22 so far this year) against them for practice? After all, the minors are about development.
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Sebastian Valle; organizational speed-bump.
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If Utley does have an right-side oblique then July 5th vs Braves will probably be his return date. Wonder who the Phillies will call up form LHV.
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The obvious argument would be Orr vs. Hernandez. Why not Cesar at this point? It seems like the Phillies have nothing to lose by going with youth. Galvis would get most of the starts at 2B but Cesar could slot in a a late-inning replacement with Galvis moving over to 3B for Young, or could get an occasional start. But I suspect that Manuel will want to go with Orr.
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Agree. Ceasr would be a crowd favorite, But Charlie will go with the vet…..maybe even MMart.
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You called it.
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Logan Moore. HOMERUN HE IS ON FIRE
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That 2-5 in clearwater is absolutely filthy to have to deal with at this point.
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kind of wouldn’t mind if they moved that group straight up to phillies. too soon?
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