Quarter Point Mailbag – Request for Questions

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I have been wanting to put together a mailbag for a while to address questions that often don’t deserve a whole post as well as just casual questions.  Feel free to submit questions regarding prospects, the majors, the draft, baseball in general, or just about any other topic.  I will answer the whole batch early this weekend.

To submit questions you can post them here, email me at mattwinkelman136(at)gmail(dot)com, or on twitter at @Matt_Winkelman.

If you would like to direct questions at Brad, Joe, or Gregg if you are really nice here or on Twitter they may answer.

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

42 thoughts on “Quarter Point Mailbag – Request for Questions”

  1. Matt…..do you think Biddle will get an AFL selection this fall? Or will the Phillies let his arm rest?

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    1. I’m not trying to answer for Matt, but . . . . I don’t see the Phillies sending Biddle or any top starting pitcher to the AFL this year. They historically don’t use the AFL for starting pitchers. The AFL is used for burgeoning position players, players for whom a 40 man roster decision is imminent (in other words, guys on the bubble), and relief pitchers who need to develop their games or prove themslves. The team likes to keep tight wraps and control over its starters and usually they don’t want those guys throwing any more innings once the minor league season ends. Now, I could see them sending a borderline starter to the AFL or a guy they are sure about – like, for example, Brody Colvin. But Biddle? I don’t see that happening. Do others agree?

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      1. I doubt the brass will be looking to the AFL to extend Biddle’s innings count for the season. I understand the thought but unless he gets hurt and misses 10 starts during the mid-year, I highly doubt Biddle is even in the AFL discussion

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        1. Perhaps Perci Garner, besides Colvin, could be a nominee. Like to see him facing more advanced bats.

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        2. No team sends their top starting Pitchers to the AFL. The Phillies will send the Reading bullpen, like always. The only question the Phillies have: Is which Clearwater hitter is sent? I’d guess Dugan, if he is not promoted to Reading by the end of the year. The Phillies will have a tough decision on whether to protect him at the end of the year.

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            1. Depends. Not many teams select High A corner OFs in the rule 5.
              It also depends on how many spots are left on the 40 man.
              They have to add Seth Rosin, Perci Garner, Rupp, Altherr and Colvin, because each one of them will almost assuredly get selected in the rule 5, if not protected. That is not including whatever Latin Pitchers (Miguel Nunez?) signed in 2009, who also need to be protected. That is a lot of bodies to protect. I don’t think it is a foregone conclusion that Dugan is protected.

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            3. I’d be surprised if any of those guys would be taken if we left them unprotected except maybe Rosin and Altherr if he keeps hitting.

              Why do you think Rupp, Garner, or Colvin would be taken? Honest question.

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            4. Colvin and Garner would be selected because they could be easily stashed in any teams bullpen, as the 7th reliever. They both can touch mid 90’s with their fastball, so I think many teams would take a chance on them as relievers. I believe Rupp could be stashed as a backup Catcher, without stressing a major league active roster.

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            5. Jinx. Also, it took me at least 7 minutes to write what I wrote. That’s a lot of time for basiaclly two thoughts.

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            6. It just seems like every organization has guys like these though. Rupp, Garner, and Colvin weren’t top 30 prospects in a bottom 10 minor league system coming into the year and they haven’t been very impressive this season. Backup catchers and relievers are so fungible I don’t see teams wasting a roster spot when they probably have similar in-house options.

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            7. The Phils have seen Carlos Monasterios and Lendy Castillo taken in the Rule 5 draft before. I don’t think either one of those guys was thought of as a prospect on Colvin or Garner’s level. Any pitcher with a live arm and some semblance of ML potential probably has a chance to be taken.

              As for Rupp, I’m not so sure that many teams have major league ready catchers with power potential who are solid behind the plate. He may not have the on-base skills to start, but there’s something there. I don’t think most teams have the catching depth to not be interested in that.

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            8. Relivers are fungible, but Pitchers with special skills are always in demand. The relievers who get taken in the rule 5 usually either have big fastballs or have great control (Herndon).

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            9. Rupp and Colvin were BA top 30 over winter. Colvin would not be top 30 as of today, but Garner would be. I think Colvin needs a heck of a good second half to be protected by the Phillies or to appeal much to another team. Colvin has now put up pretty much 2-1/2 years of continuous dreck plus an injury.

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            10. rupp is 25 years old I believe and is hitting less than 250. sure most teams have catchers that can hit 250 in the minors

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            11. Not to offer an opinion for VOR, but you could stash Colvin or Garner in the bullpen and send them back to AAA the following year if they need it, I suppose. On Rupp – any team with a veteran starting catcher locked up and no real backup and no depth in their high minors might grab him and make him their 2014 big league backup catcher. How many teams there are like that in the 2013-2014 off-season might make that decision easier for the Phils.

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  2. I have a question to throw out, based on a look at the Top 5 in Baseball America’s system rankings:

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2013-organizational-talent-rankings-list/

    It’s fairly clear how Miami and Seattle ended up on this list: by being consistently bad on the major league level. The Rays obviously have a working strategy: they draft well, never give up picks, and trade guys like James Shields before they reach their top-earning years. My question, though, is about the other two teams on the list: the Cardinals and Rangers. Since 2008, the Cardinals have averaged 88 victories a season while the Rangers have averaged 89 victories a season. By comparison, the Phillies have averaged 93 victories a season. Given their relatively similar draft position, all three teams should be looking at a pretty similar pool of players. Yet the Cardinals’ and Rangers’ systems have thrived, while the Phillies’ has not.

    Is this a function of the Phillies having traded so much talent in their deadline deals? Do these other teams employ a different strategy in terms of evaluating the draft (going for finished talent, for instance, rather than the raw athletes the Phillies favor)? Do they spend a lot more on the international market? I’m genuinely unsure, but it seems like a useful question to ask.

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    2. Do they spend a lot more on the international market?….Bingo. And saying, ‘a lot more’ is relative, but the Phillies on the other hand, historically spent bottom 1/3 of total MLB teams. But thats history now….under year one or two, of the new CBA, its a New Beginnings.

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    3. According to MLB.com…Ranger’s six of top eight prospects are LA signings and the Cardinals top two can’t miss guys are LA signings. So they spent and scouted.

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      1. Doesn’t the new CBA rein in international signing bonuses? I wonder if their advantage will diminish now.

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      2. According to BA, the top 3 StL guys are a Dominican OF signed for $145K, a first round draftee signed for $2.875 mill, and a Dominican pitcher signed for $1.5 mill. Over the past 5 drafts StL has spent $5.5,$5.5, $6.7, $4.6, and $9.9 mill. Last year’s $9.9 mill spend was fueled by 3 extra 1st round picks plus an extra 2nd rounder. By comparison, Phillies draft spend over those 5 years was $6.7, 3.2, 3.9, 4.7, and $4.8 mill. Those two sub-$4 mill budgets being pretty inexcusable, but in all you can see how badly we were outspent. We lost top picks due to FA signs and didn’t get the Cards extrra picks. The Cards also busted slot. That pitcher signed in 2009 for $2.875 mill was about double slot. The Phillies didn’t have a first rounder that year

        Texas top 5 from BA: Profar signed for $1.55 mill internationally, Olt who likely wouldn’t rank that high today, Perez signed $580K internationally, Leonys Martin signed $15.6 mill out of Cuba, and Grimm. Their draft spending over past 5 years: $7.4, $4.7, $8.5, $4.2, $7.4 mill. Last year’s $7.4 mill spend fueld by 2 extra first rounders and an extra second rounder.

        So, these guys outspend us both on draft and international and also do a far better job holding onto their own top draft picks and gaining extra picks.

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          1. Get over it ACA, revisionist history is mostly always depressing. Think towards the future.

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            1. That seems very forgiving to the Phillies front office. Has Dave $$$ Montgomery kidnapped your dog or something?

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  3. Question: Do minor league players automatically get a pay raise when added to the 40 man major league roster. If so, how much?

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  4. FYI – Phils just promoted Stutes (it’s about time) and demoted Aumont (he’s way better than Durbin but, admittedly, he could probably use regular work to perfect his game rather than get inconsistent mop up work in the majors). IMHO, Stutes can really help this team, and, if Adams comes back healthy, the bullpen starts to look pretty decent – not awesome, but relatively competent.

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  5. I am interested in current scouting projection for Larry Greene, Jr. He has yet to hit a HR this year and for such a big guy he has less than 1 XBH/10 AB while striking out more than 40% of his AB. He walks a ton, but when your calling card is power and you are being out-homered by tiny Quinn on your own team, something seems wrong. Why does a scouting projection of outstanding raw power so often not show up as in-game power? What exactly do the scouts look for to tag a guy with outstanding raw power as a tool?

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    2. Things could end up working out with Larry Greene, but, as far as I’m concerned, he is teetering every so close to utter and complete bust status. Allentown’s comments are well taken. Big old Larry has fewer home runs than Roman Quinn does as a little guy who is just learning to switch hit. He does have plate discipline, but, so far, that’s where the pluses end and the questions and negatives begin. I want to believe in Larry, but he’s given us very little cause for optimism.

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      1. Larry Greene’s return value in a packaged deal is currently at its highest. His age is his one plus.

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  6. Would the Phillies be wise to trade M Young for A Ethier? I know Ethier is another LH bat and he has many years and many $$$ remaining, but it seems like he could be a difference maker if he returned to form. The downside is by next season the lineup could have as many as 6 LH hitters in it – Ethier, Revere, Brown, Howard, Utley, and Asche.

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    1. With the exception of a slight blip up last season, Ethiers SLG has been consistently and pretty drastically on a straight line down. This years low SLG does not look at all out of line. His BB have taken a slight blip up this year, which may not sustain. A return to past ‘form’ seems a long shot.

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  7. Please rank the top 10 RH arms and top 5 LH arms in the Phils minor league system. Please also project 2015 line-up incl SPs , bullpen and bench. I don’t post often but love the site ! Thank you

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    1. One can’t project the 2015 roster. A lot of guys who will be on that roster are not currently in the Phillies organization. If one had to do it with guys we’ve got:

      1B — Howard
      2B — Hernandez
      SS — Galvis
      3B — Franco
      C — Joseph
      RF — Altherr
      CF — Revere
      LF — Brown

      Starters:
      Hamels
      Biddle
      Pettibone
      Kendrick
      Morgan

      Relievers:
      DeFratus
      Stutes
      Aumont
      Rosen
      Diekman
      Giles
      Rosenberg

      Bench:
      Rupp
      Asche
      Perkins
      Dugan
      I can’t even come up with a plausible reserve SS, perhaps Carlos Alonso as a spare middle IF

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      1. Well with that kind of bullpen. I believe we are a bad team. Rosenberg and Diekman . Are guys we would have a tough time winning with. Aumont and rosen are big question marks too.

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  8. Andrew ‘Ambi’ Pullin -‘…. A natural righthanded thrower, he began to experiment with his left hand in the fifth grade. By high school, he was a full-fledged switch-pitcher, using an ambidextrous six-fingered glove made by Louisville Slugger that he would alternate, depending on the batter he was facing. As a righthander, his fastball topped out at around 90 mph. But he also was effective as a lefthander, mixing an 80 mph fastball with a curveball’

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  9. Hey Matt, thanks for doing this!
    I’m curious about Cameron Perkins, since I haven’t read many scouting reports of him. He’s the same age as Kelly Dugan, but as a lower pick, there isn’t as much info out there about him. So I’m wondering…
    1. I assume he’s playing LF because Clearwater has Franco at 3B and Dugan in RF, but does he still have the ability to play those spots, or was he also moved because he’s not able to field them well enough?
    2. What’s his major league projection at this point? His statistics suggest a good hit tool and doubles power without walks or speed, which wouldn’t cut it as a starter in a corner unless he really is able to maintain his batting average.

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