Lots of injury news the last week. Mike Adams just placed on the DL, Quintero up but Chooch stays on the active roster, as does Howard, after both had MRIs on Sunday. Halladay had surgery last week and could optimistically begin throwing before the end of June, (6-8 weeks was the timetable). Also my arm hurts. I blame holding an iPhone for too many hours a day, and I blame Ruben Amaro.
143 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 5-20-2013 – Old Bodies Collapsing Edition”
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Phuture Phillies 
Freddy Galvis has been awesome.
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Before Jimmy signed his 3 yr contract I wanted Galvis to be the everyday shortstop. SSS but this year it looks like we would have been well off. Galvis is awesome
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Awfully suspicious bump in power though.. Must be 5/8 on the scouting grading scale.
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The swing generates power, but likely at the expense overall hitting ability (the walk rate will likely always be low). He is only 23 and was likely not ready in 2012 and might be ready right now for a full time job. The power is likely in the 4-5 range but way above what was expected
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Absolutely. Im really happy to see that he may be more than just a super utility guy.
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He’s hitting so well in his few chances this season that he can afford to lose some of that power and still be a good player.
With his defense, he really doesn’t have to hit all that well to be a good starter.
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“With his defense, he really doesn’t have to hit all that well to be a good starter”
This is just so wrong that all I can say to you is please go find another team to root for and destroy.
It’s all about the bat. Miguel Cabrera stinks defensively anywhere he plays.
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But Cabrera has the bat to make up for it (Cabrera is in the conversation with Pujols for best hitter of this generation). If Cabrera was just average defensively at third base the WAR discussion of him vs Trout would have been irrelevant. You cannot punt offense at every position on the field in favor of great defenders but when talking about an individual the value of defense can outweigh offense.
A run is a run, and if you can prevent a run with your glove then it is one less run your offense has to score. Someone like Galvis is elite enough with the glove to save enough runs to make him an average player at many positions on the diamond.
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It’s thinking like this that has given the Phillies Ben Revere in CF.
That guy is not a starting MLB player. His defense is not even average from what I’ve seen, but the thinking that defense is important is what made him thinkable. His bat was a non-starter. That should have eliminated him from the discussion.
Of course, when choosing between two guys with near identical bats you look for qualities like speed, heads-up base running and glove work. However, the first and only important consideration with a position player is the bat. That tool supersedes all the others combined. You just get into absurdities if you argue against that.
If Mike Trout had a .763 OPS last year he wouldn’t be in any discussion except the Gold Glove (which, incredibly he did not win) and people would be talking about his future bat potential. It’s Mike Trout’s bat that makes him who he is. Same with Bryce Harper.
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Not really. The dude was 2 years younger than he should have been at almost every stop.
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I never understood why Galvis didn’t get more love. He was a 20-21 year old SS of GG caliber at AAA holding his own offensively.
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Because, at one time, he was so small and weak that it looked like he could never man a position as a starter. In terms of power, he has progressed beyond anyone’s wildest expectations.
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If the big club collapse, do you trade either galvis or hernandez? I don’t think there is room for them both in the big league.
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Cesar Hernandez probably would be the one to be traded as Freddie Galvis is more versatile. Galvis plays every position besides pitcher and catcher and has more power. Though if they traded some core players I could envision Cesar Hernandez coming up.
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Matt compd Cesar to Jose Altuve last week…why not keep them both.
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I think there would be room because I could see Jimmy and Utley being traded. But if I were GM, id keep Galvis.
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Brad, is there a DL for phone elbow?
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I’m using my left hand right now. Day to day while we see if that helps.
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Thanks Ricky Ricardo. Yesterday morning Ricky, of Cuban descent, living near Union City, NJ…..bought Aroldis Chapman a whole box of his local favorite Cuban pastry made in a specialty Cuban pastry shop in NJ…Aoldis sat in a car and ate the box of Cuban ‘donuts’ yesterday morning. His fastball to Eric Kratz and Freddy was a ‘mere’ 96MPH vs his standard 99/100MPH. Apparently he was weighed down.
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cream cheese filled donuts and he ate like 17 of them. according to wip
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na man that was a carb load. good to go
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Actually, the FB Kratz hit clocked in at 98, but it was down, which, in my opinion, makes it easier to hit. The one Freddy hammered was “only” 95. In general, however, Chapman was definitely not throwing as hard as usual.
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At Reading game now. Seth Rosin likely with his best outing of the season. Rupp and Duran with 2 run hrs. Collier with great catch at the wall in center. Realized Hewitt has 0 hrs for the year. There were thoughts he might hit 20 ln Reading.
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how did Rosin velocity look? he had great line 2 hits, 8 SO.
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What players do you think it will cost the Phillies to acquire Ryan Doumit from the Twins?
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but why?
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Because if we want a truly historically awful defense we need to stock every position with a DH. Along these lines I say we also trade for Pedro Alvarez and Clint Barmes of the Pirates (move M. Young over to 2B) and D. Fowler of the Rockies to play CF.
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Ben Revere is a defensive horror show in CF.
.
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Nice to see the Phils carry over the momentum from yesterday. 1-9 in Hamels’ starts. I am sure they could have gotten that production from a minimum wage earner from Burger King let alone a MLB minimum wage earner. They sure don’t need to to pay $25 mil to get win every 10 starts. I know these losses are often resulting from lack of offense but it is ironic that they are getting such low return on the Hamels dollars. On the bright side Din Brown leads team in HRs with 8.
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I thought Hamels looked good. He was aggressive, good bite on his stuff. He just has poor run support team. Biddle in similar situation at Reading.
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An ace does not allow 7 hits against in 6 innings against the worst lineup in the NL. Granted Hamels has had poor run support but he needs to blame himself as he looks healthy but his location is way off this year.
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Hamels should concentrate on his hitting. Maybe he can drive in some runs to support his pitching. No one else seems to be able to.
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That is a really bad lineup that Hamels has faced three times and failed to dominate, but the three biggest problems with this team are:
1)hitting
2)hitting
3)hitting.
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He’s had three bad outings… Not the only “ace” struggling this year:
see:
David Price and Matt Cain.
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Colebert is going through the Barry Zito phase of his career…..patience.
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I am sitting here thinking if we trade Utley, Does anyone think Galvis, gives us more offense? or if we move michael young is Asche a better option? I just think this team needs a lot more than we believe it does. like some clutch hitters, young in right is really killing us with no offense. Mayberry doesn’t hit in the clutch, I The most important part to me is that the ownership, realize that Amaro isn’t the right man to get us back to be good.
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This offense is putrid but Galvis is certainly part of the solution. Irrespective of how he is used this season or next, I think we view Galvis as the apparent heir at SS. The glove is spectacular and the bat will play and moving Rollins provided he’s receptive would make a lot of sense.
Funny you ask this question as I was also thinking to myself; are we really worse off with Galvis over Rollins at SS, Ruf over Howard at 1B and Asche over Young at 3B?
Utley’s situation for me is predicated on what another team will offer in return. If he stays healthy all year then he’s sure to receive a qualifying offer though I suspect interest may be heavy for Utley come July.
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“Funny you ask this question as I was also thinking to myself; are we really worse off with Galvis over Rollins at SS, Ruf over Howard at 1B and Asche over Young at 3B?”
No.
They have to move on from this ag (ing? ed?) core of hitters. My suggestion would be the following:
* Trade Young and Rollins for whatever middling prospects you can get.
* Offer reasonable (2 year) deals to Utley and Ruiz at season’s end. If Utley doesn’t sign, promote Hernandez. If he does, you’ve got an excellent plan B if the knees go south. If Ruiz doesn’t sign, sign a FA or go with Kratz while waiting for Joseph (or Rupp) to develop.
* Don’t touch the pitching staff. Do not trade Lee, and consider trying to bring Halladay back on a reasonable deal if the shoulder surgery allows him to be a decent No. 3.
* Promote Ruf to play LF and spell Howard at 1B against lefties.
Now, the new lineup (if Utley and Ruiz sign elsewhere) would strike fear only in the hearts of Phillies season ticket owners. But it brings fresh legs to the offense, gives financial flexibility for going after a premier bat or arm, and breathes new life into a team that has become the equivalent of Use Your Illusion-era Guns’N’Roses — bloated, bored and mailing in performances.
CF Revere
2B Hernandez
RF Brown
1B Howard
LF Ruf
3B Asche
SS Galvis
C Kratz
P: Hamels, Lee, Halladay, Kendrick, Pettibone
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Very, very similar thoughts Mike. The only way I would wish to trade Lee is if we were somehow able to package Howard (all but an impossibility now) or get a true impact prospect bat in return, e.g. Taveras, which is unlikely to happen as well. Best to build around Lee and Hamels. That entire offense needs to be turned over though – they’re embarrassing to watch right now
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Tom Verducci said yesterday Cliff Lee is the highest return value on the Phillies right now.
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Rollins already hinted….he could accept a trade to his home area….the Bay. Not sure he will accept any place else. So what can you get from the A’s……Choice in the OF?
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Mike Taylor!
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Now, purely at the level of “what should the team do” I don’t object to much here (I’d give Utley a third vesting year on his contract; if he’s playing, he’ll play well enough to be worth it, and if he doesn’t play, it won’t vest. And I’m still not quite ready to plug Galvis in for Rollins, though I’m there.).
But I think this really points out an aesthetic disagreement among posters here. Unlike some of the “play the kids” crowd, you’re realistic enough to realize that that lineup would be horrible. The only thing that might – might – save the team from 100 losses would be the pitching staff. But some people, despite that, look forward to such a prospect, preferring to see young players lose instead of old players – well, let’s be honest at this point, lose less.
I don’t see it that way. I don’t enjoy watching a collection of mediocrities play baseball, of whatever age. IMO that would be just a horrible team to watch. Lot’s of low scoring losses.
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LarryM…..you say I don’t enjoy watching a collection of mediocrities play baseball, of whatever age. but with the present aged-vets, and I thank them for 2008, they are on the verge of mediocrity now and in two years or less what will they be, except older.
The dozens and dozens of baseball guys I kibitz with now, between ages of 40 and 88 in August, same the same ole thing….they do not like watching these guys play. And just too many call out Rollins and want more Galvis. Go figure.
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You’re setting up a straw man. No one is calling for the current group to be kept together for the next few years. The disagreement if between tearing the team down and a gradual transition.
That aside, obviously part of this is subjective – a preference about what kind of team we would like to watch. But I DO suspect that some of your buddies feel that way in part because they have unrealistic expectations of the what the young kids will do, and would change their tune once the team started losing even more games with the kids. (And, with Utley in particular, a lack of understanding of just how good he still is.) The fact is that the “young” guys on the whole just aren’t that good. Kratz we can probably agree is not particularly good OR young. You can make an argument for each of the other four guys, and I LIKE of all them to some extent. but IMO, with the possible exception of Galvis, each of them most likely are second division regulars.
The Rollins/Galvis thing is illustrative in two respects. On the one hand, it is a switch which is increasingly something that one can reasonably argue for. On the other hand, Galvis is not going to match his current production, and probably not even come close to it. In the short run, if I had to project the two players, I think Rollins probably still comes out ahead. As a hitter, despite this season’s SSS, it’s hard to see an area where Galvis comes is better. Rollins has more plate discipline for sure, and is a better contact hitter. The big advantage Galvis has at this point in the season is power, However, while I think Galvis clearly has more pop that we expected, I would still expect Rollins to have at least as high an ISO as Galvis over the course of 162 games. If I had to guess, I see Galvis regressing to around .260/.310/.380. Rollins of course has a speed edge; Galvis is at this point a better fielder.
All that said, they are close enough that you can certainly make the case for going with the young guy. Not so much with Utley/Hernandez (with, as always, the caveat that, if Utley’s demands are high enough, he could end up elsewhere).
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It seems like the most moderate solution to getting Galvis in the lineup in the near future is just sliding him over to 3B to replace Young when he’s traded midseason or leaves at the end of the year. They can then move Galvis to SS in 2015 when Rollins’ contract is up. The added benefit to this arrangement is it allows them to bring up Cesar Hernandez (assuming he continues to develop) in a utility role next year because they won’t need him to play SS (they’ll have 2 on the roster with Galvis and Rollins). It also creates an opening at 3B for the 2015 season, when you would hope Franco is just about ready.
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The problem is that a.) that leaves no job for Asche, who is arguably the best 3B prospect not named Maikel Franco the team has had since Scott Rolen, and b.) there’s no telling that Hernandez could handle a utility role. He’s played one game at a position other than SS since he was a 17-year-old in Venezuela.
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I like this, except that I’m still holding out some hope for Asche in 2014. I don’t think he is the long term solution there, but if he can come in and have a decent rookie season, he could have some trade value, with Franco hopefully sliding in in 2015.
If they do keep Rollins, though, it does set up an interesting dilemma. Galvis likely does have more long term value than Asche, but for an offense starved team, putting him at third base, even for one season, seems problematic. Of course if he does keep hitting (not at the same level, that isn’t happening, but at a level higher than my current expectations) then i certainly could change my mind on that.
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That was me above. Don’t know why it was under “anonymous”…Mike, you bring up a good point about Hernandez. I was thinking he could be used to pitch hit, spot Utley at 2B, and occasionally play some OF. I’m not sure if that’s enough versatility from a utility guy. Regarding Asche, I’m guess I’m not quite as high on him as you or even Larry are. Pretty average walk rate and power and a highish K rate. I don’t see him as someone you need to make room for. Not sure what his platoon splits were before this year, but at least this season he is hitting right handed pitching well. Maybe he’s a platoon option.
My thought process with Galvis is similar to Larry’s. He’s now shown enough power when we should be open minded about him becoming a league average hitter, which would make him a border line all star. I can’t believe it might happen based on where he was at the beginning of last year, but he’s been impressive.
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My thoughts are in a similar vein, but not entirely. I’d re-sign Utley for sure and would also sign Ruiz. Ruiz has screwed up his market value (as a result of his injuries, age, drug suspension and not so good year) so I expect that,next year, the Phillies would be able to sign him on a two-year contract at a bargain price ($5-7.5 million per year – a price he will almost certainly be worth). The only reason not to sign Ruiz is if they can acquire/sign a better catcher.
I now agree that it is probably a good idea to trade Rollins. He should actually have a lot of market value (good player, good contract, post season experience) and Galvis should not be too much worse (his defense make him a 2+ WAR player to start and the offense should be at least a 1 WAR because of the power).
But the Phillies should not go cheap on the entire team – that’s a big mistake. They are losing fans – money spent competing (if they do in fact compete) will be made up through improved box office receipts and other revenue. This trade deadline, I would be very open to picking up a contract of a good player that another team simply wants to dump.
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100% agree. Re-sign Utley and Ruiz for 2-3 year contracts, trade Rollins at the deadline if we are out of it. We should be able to get a good prospect in return that is close to being able to compete for a job.
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I’m with Catch and Dave.
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you assume Chase Utley would want to re-sign. Its starting to look like an obvious rebuild and Chase Utley only has a few more years left in him.
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I’ve heard this point made before and it mystifies me. I’m sure Utley cares a lot about winning, but (even assuming that there is a contender out there who would sign him), would it override other considerations? He seems quite happy in Philadelphia.
Of course none of this changes the team’s short term strategy. The sandwich pick is almost certainly more valuable that an return they could get in a trade.
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I disagree with your assessment of the sandwich pick. If they can get a high-minors guy, even if he’s someone in the 150-200 range, (like an Ethan Martin range guy – seems very possible for a 2 month rental of a healthy Chase Utley), that’s more valuable to me than a sandwich pick. Until or unless that pick turns himself into a real player, (and we know the flame-out rate on such things is very high), wouldn’t most sandwich picks land lower than the 150-200 range, with a much higher chance to flame out?
And now I’m hungry for a flame-cooked sandwich. A Ruben, maybe? Its like a Reuben, except cooked over an open flame, and in place of the sauerkraut you get a big heaping pile of “production”.
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Take a ‘walk’ and go get your Ruben!
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Mike your logic on this one is really. imo crazy. revere leading off, brown as your three hitter. Kratz has already been exposed. and now he is a below the Mendoza line hitter. Before I would subject this city to that bunch of hitters. rather blow up the whole team and wait to rebuild through draft. you don’t mention the bullpen, should we keep Aumont. horst . and the rest of that junk too? sorry. I wont resign halladay, but keep the rest of the starters. but you need to upgrade the outfield, and ruf brown and revere is a formula for a bad team .
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roccom…..’.ruf brown and revere is a formula for a bad team ‘….it may be, but replace Ruf with and younger better and true OF prospect and that equation changes for me. Revere at 24 still is younger then Dom Brown and still progressing, though slowly. But he does have some experience. and I give him the benefit of the doubt.
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this would work if the Phillies were content with a pay roll half the size it is now. Theyre going to spend. They just need someone to do it correctly.
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I’m not advocating cutting the annual payroll. My argument is that the current lineup is no longer effective, and there’s no point in continuing to pour money into it when you have younger players who could do the job nearly as well (if not as well or more, depending on their development). This provides the flexibility to go out and get someone, which they can do when the opportunity — and the right player — presents itself.
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I think a main issue is what will the future free agent market look like? Will it allow the Phillies a chance for a gradual retool? The way teams are locking up good young players i personally believe, even with a huge payroll, good free agents won’t happen and we don’t have enough good prospects to trade for elite MLB players who still have age on their side. Sadly, i think we need to get to the top of the draft and hope we get a few Nationals drafts in a row and let player development and scouting get us back on top then supplement the new core with free agents. I just don’t think this team can be salvaged with band aids. Do we really want a decade of 81-81 or half a decade of 62-100? Which would be better long term?
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Personally? A decade of 81-81. But I don’t think those are the only two options. Yes, the free agent market is likely to be more limited in future years, but there will be good players to be had if you’re willing to pay the money/prospects. (Justin Upton being the latest example of this). The Phils have been able to stock the system with trade-chip prospects despite having only one (maybe two) losing season in the new millenium. So I don’t worry so much about the availability of good players.
What does concern me right now is that the very expensive players we have right now are headed in the wrong direction, and are potentially blocking guys that, while not stars in the making, have some more development in them and could bring some financial flexibility to the team. Adding them to the mix and sticking with the team’s “pitching wins” philosophy should allow the team to remain somewhat competitive while waiting for the other shoe to drop (i.e. impact players via development, free agency, trade, etc.). For every Nationals team that sucks its way into Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg, there are multitudes of Kansas City Royals stories. No thank you.
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Well Mike i do believe you have made some valid points. I have two places where i would like to be devils advocate. First, as we have all discussed in the off season many people wanted to trade for Mike Stanton. We had no where near the prospects to attain such a high profile player. That being said, i disagree that we have such great trade pieces. We would have to gut our system for 1 or 2 guys and that is just not enough. Secondly, when discussing the Royals i disagree as KC did develop some good talent but their problem was shelling out bucks to keep them when they did develop. The Phillies can keep stud players AND afford to supplement stars with enough role players to win again. Putting these two issues together, we only have the type prospects to trade for some solid guys or the type you need to supplement stars. We need to keep current chips AND get a new core of very talented ballplayers. The only way to do that is to get to the top of the draft. (In My Opinion)
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Is anyone familiar with what an insurance policy on a contract like Howard’s is, e.g., would he have to go on the 60-day or be permanently disabled? If his body is shot and some of his contract can be recouped, it might not be a bad thing for the team if there’s less of an impact on the bottom line – realizing that his contract would still hit the luxury tax limits. But there is relief in that area coming.
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I think teams seldom if ever buy insurance on contracts anymore. I think the risk of breakdown is so high that a player like Howard (or any player on a $100 m contract) is effectively uninsurable. So no, no relief ciming.
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I’d hunt a guy like Avisail Garcia from the Tigers for Papelbon….
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Agree Garcia would be nice….maybe Tigers would get really desperate for Paps and willing to let go of Nick Castellanos.
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Good one I didn’t even think of Nick. What fascinates me about Garcia is they plucked him right from AA and put him in the playoffs.
Either profiles as an impact RH bat and either could play LF allowing Brown to move back to RF.
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More and more, I see a culture of Phillies hitters hacking instead of being patient. This strategy may be reasonable against pitchers with great control that like to get ahead of the hitters, but it is a problem against mediocre pitchers with questionable control. They are really helping out these pitchers by swinging at almost everything and the end result is that they make pitchers that have ERAs of 5, 6 and even 7 look like Cy Young. I think that this culture is due to Charlie’s philosophy, which is be aggressive at the plate. The longer he has managed, the more this seems to have become a problem. The disease has even spread to Chase Utley who is now tied for 51st in the league in pitches per plate appearance at 3.7. One wonders if a new manager such as Sandberg would be able to change this pattern.
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I may be in the minority, but my sense is that guys either walk or they don’t and the patterns they establish are usually pretty well on their way while the player is in the minors and finally determined by the time they have been in the majors for a few years. I think coaching only plays a very small part in walk percentages – if that were not the case, you would see OBP of certain players spike (or plummet) when they were under the influence of a particular coach. But have you ever seen that happen? I haven’t. Jonathan Singleton and Domingo Santana (remember them?) walk and probably always will. Sebastian Valle doesn’t walk and probably never will. The best way to improve the team’s walks and OBP is to acquire and draft players with good plate discipline.
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I concur and accept that a line-up generally functions well because the lead off hitter gets on and the 3/4 hitters do what 3/4 hitters do.
The 5 hitter is better because of the 4 hitter so and so forth. All you have to do is watch the way they challenge Howard anymore. The league doesn’t fear him and he obviously hasn’t been making anyone pay for not pitching to him.
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You wonder. I noticed that Michael Young has a career high OBP with the Phillies.
Maybe that’s because I’m not a Charlie hater?
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Young had been doing well, but has fallen off lately. Let’s see if he is still above his career numbers on OBP in July. I am not a Charlie hater either, but you have to hate the way this offense has been producing.
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So you think Delmon Young is a Cooperstown hitting talent? Ben Revere? Stinkberry?
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Obviously not, but all the more reason not to swing at bad pitches if you can’t hit. Revere is the most egregious, as he is good at making contact and should take more pitches. Also since he has so little power, a walk is almost as good as a hit in his case. Mayberry also does not walk much and should be more selective. Young has been walking more than in the past, but the sample size is too small to be significant.
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It’s not Charlie’s fault these guys don’t hit, it’s the General Manager’s.
The biggest needs of this team have been middle relief and diciplined hitters for the last two-three years and he hasn’t fixed those problems at all and only made them worse.
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It was a conscious effort by him to walk more. Young hasn’t had a bad approach he just could make really good contact consistently. He made the adjustment that his bat his slower and he needs to find production from other skills.
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who ever it is needs to get away from Domonic Brown. Kid hasnt walked in about 2 weeks.
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that’s intentional. brown is being more aggressive in hitter’s counts, which is why his extra-base numbers are up this month.
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Ruben must have told him…take the bat off your shoulders. Walks are not productive.
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What does everyone think about Cory Seager as a prospect? Looks like a stud to me. Normally acquiring someone like him would be basically a waste of time to contemplate, but he belongs to the Dodgers who are not like any other organization in this regard. If the Dodgers get back in the mix they could be interested in Chase Utley, who is from Los Angeles county.
Do you think David Montgomery is up to blowing lines up his nose until dawn with Jay Z and signing Robbie Cano in November? Don’t You Know at 2B, the Choo-Choo Train in CF. Galvis at SS. It’s too early to know what corner outfield might be as Darin Ruf is still a question mark with a history of slow starts. Certainly another move is available there.
Howard’s contract must be eaten by John S. Middleton. There is no argument. That’s Middleton’s job. If he doesn’t want to do his job then he needs to sell the team. The Phillies have Dodgers dollars and we need to see those dollars.
This lineup is unwatchable and totally unacceptable.
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I shouldn’t feed the troll, but:
(1) No, they don’t have Dodger dollars.
(2) And the Dodgers are now … 2 games worse than the Phillies. Not a cheap shot; you can’t just say “spend more intelligently.” The current structure of the game (many factors why, including the tendency for the best players to get locked up long term before they hit FA) makes it impossible to spend Dodger level money intelligently. I was more bullish than many people on the last FA market, and still think that I was right, but there were some real misses (no, I do not regret not paying 123 million for .216/.271/.351) and even the hits are not guys that would have propelled this team to playoffs. Going forward, it gets worse. Utley is probably one of the top 5 free agents available next year.
(3) I love Cano, but he is going to be 31 next year and will get a 10/200 contract. He’ll be a liability for more than half of that contract. Pass.
(4) Choo is actually a decent FA target, though he won’t come cheap. But as a right fielder, not a center fielder.
(5) I don’t disagree about Howard long term, but I’m not seeing how that helps much until they either get a good first base prospect, or one becomes available on the FA market.
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We need to see Revere and Brown play a full season before we can really say how to address the OF situation. They might be 4th or 5th OFs on a good team or they might be solid (and cheap) starters. We could conceivably have all three OF spots in need of an upgrade this offseason.
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I don’t need to see Ben Revere play one more game. If you do then you are not competent to judge baseball talent.
Revere is at best a pinch runner and emergency defensive replacement in the outfield. He’s not even good defensively. The Phillies MLB scouting is horrible. They seem to trade for position players with no recognition of who they are. Either that or they make moves only for public relations, not to improve the team.
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If you can judge baseball talent, why are you posting as Anonymous on a blog instead of using that skill?
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I am problely wrong. but the tv deal that the Phillies will get ,next season will put them up with the big market teams, they want a east coast team, that draws , so they will be getting a boat load of money somewhere near what the texas rangers got. is the word I hear. And the dodgers are two games. worst right now, but lets see how it plays out this season and next. this team could eat howards deal with no problem. but I wouldn’t yet, ruf might not be the answer, as bad as howard has been he still drives in 100 runs. Right now, I will stick to my guns, that not spending in the international market. and not signing some of there top ten guys hurt them. workmen is ready to come up. all of the guys we traded haven’t really done anything yet. singleton is one strike away from a year suspension. Santana is a strikeout machine, d’naud is always hurt. cosart looks like a good pitcher who is ready. but so what the two guys we got in trades are higher ceiling then any of the prospects imo.
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You are really off on the traded prospect analysis. Singleton is a stud who should anchor a lineup for dirt cheap over the next 6 years (the suspension record is wiped the minute he hits the majors), Santana is a flyer, Villar is a starting SS in 2014, Cosart is higher upside than anyone in our system, d’arnaud may always be hurt but he still has good upside. Brandon Workman is a worst prospect then Martin and is more a #3/#4 starter who still will end up in the bullpen. Scott Frazier will likely go later and for less money then the Phillies offered 3 years ago. They missed their opportunity internationally but have been spending the last three years.
Howard drives in 100 runs because of who hits in front of him.
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D’Arnaud could turn into Johnny Bench and I won’t complain because of what Halladay brought to this team. The Oswalt and Pence deals, though … ugh.
Your 2014 Phils lineup, sans those two trades and the Howard extension:
CF Gose
SS Villar
2B Utley (resigned for bat/vet leadership)
LF Ruf
RF Brown
1B Singleton
C Ruiz
3B Galvis
P: Hamels, Lee, Kendrick, Pettibone, Cosart
A lot of inexperience and youth, but the upside …
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I won’t argue with the first Lee deal, Halladay, or Oswalt trades. But to trash the prospects traded as failures seems vindictive. (I would swap Villar and Galvis, Freddy is a much better defender). Also you have May and Worley (in the bullpen probably) because you don’t need Revere.
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I’ll pick nits but I’d rather have Worley starting than Pettibone probably
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Have you seen what he’s done with Minnesota?
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Worley pitched plenty well with the Phils and he was even pitching well outside of the benefit of first time around the league. When Pettibone gets into year 2 or 3 in the majors and is having success then we’ll talk about it. Would you have Cloyd over Worley?
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Worley allowed eight runs in his last start and was sent down.
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That’s a 77 win team, if that – not very good. Perhaps a lot better in 2015 and 16, but scary in 2014.
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Scott Boras has stated that the Phillies TV deal should match or exceed the Dodgers.
There is no benefit for Boras to overstate what the Phillies will get by a three fold amount.
The Rangers TV deal is a fraction of what a Phillies TV deal is worth.
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isn’t he saying the phillies will have the money to spend on free agents? This comment benefits him monetarily.
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Saying Howard still drives in 100 runs is really counting those chickens before they hatch. He didn’t last year and he isn’t on pace for it this year.
Yes, he was injured last year. He was injured again this year. Doesn’t matter how good you might be when healthy if you can’t stay healthy.
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John Middletown is a silent partner……wants to spend….but cannot make the decisions.
Claire Betz (of Rohm and Haas fame), Buck Bros…one of the three passed a few years ago, are the owners who decide with Monty and Giles counseling and guiding..
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Middleton has over four billion dollars in cash.
This is the USA. Money speaks loudly.
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I love how people who will never make $75million+ in their life want someone to “eat” that money like it’s nothing.
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The love of money is the root of all evil.
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Actually 2 of the 3 Buck Bros have passed.
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larry, catch, brad, Matt or any of the more knowledgable guys….I know we had no shot at stanton a few months ago but young players who have already performed at mlb level seem to hold a lot of value as there is much less risk involved. If brown goes 270/350/450 with 25 homers, pettibone goes 10-7-3.50, biddle and franco are top 50 prospects, while cesar and E. martin fall just outside of the top 100, would this be attractive to the Marlins? This would hurt a little but I think the phils would do this trade. I would prefer to take on their only high salary guy left in nolasco who is overpaid at 11.5 million and retain franco but I’m not sure which is more intriguing to the marlins.We are really lacking an impact bat and this would move us forward in the right direction in that regard, I think but would leave us searching for affordable replacements for aging players. This would make us need to have most of asche, ruf, galvis, joseph, gillies, morgan, aumont, defratus etc. be productive mlb players.
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The Marlins need big impact guys if they are going to trade Stanton. If they are trading Stanton they would likely flip Brown along in another deal. Pettibone is a nice back end guy but they have pitching on the way. Biddle is a good pitcher as is Martin, and Franco is a stud (but not a Top 50 prospect and neither is Biddle). It might be enough to entice the Marlins but the list of guys left is not impressive. Asche is not long term answer and neither is Ruf, Gillies is nothing until he proves otherwise, Morgan, Galvis, and Joseph are nice but not difference makers, and Aumont and DeFratus or bullpen pieces.
You would essentially mortgage the future for a guy while really good, has been injury prone. You end up then having to overpay FA starters, of which there will not be a huge market for. If the guys are all at the point you describe, you keep them, not trade them for Stanton.
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thanks matt. are they interested in getting rid of nolasco enough to give back one of those better prospects like biddle or franco?
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Probably not, Nolasco has value on the trade market and come July they can get something for him without having to pay any of the contract
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So you don’t think Seattle is interested in Stanton? If you can see the obvious interest then how do you expect the Phillies with their bottom tier system with no impact prospects to compete against Seattle with their loaded system? The Mariners can offer two of their best prospects who are easily better than the best four the Phillies could offer.
Then you have to consider the fact that Loria would take significantly less from Seattle to send Stanton there rather than Philly. Look at his trade history. He tries to send them to the American League and as far away as he can, and Seattle is the farthest place you can send a player.
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if the dbacks were going to move Taijuan Walker for Justin Upton, I think thats the best the Marlins are going to do. Phillies cannot compete with that.
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blah Mariners I mean
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Nick Franklin.
Mike Zunino.
They’re better than Walker. Seattle might move all three for Stanton especially when they have Bradley Miller. No other team is going to top that and Seattle has the big power need more than any team. No position free agent wants to go there for obvious reasons. Upton blocked the trade from Phoenix, Ken Griffey Jr. looked at the fences and demanded a trade to Cincinnati way back there in 2000.
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youre out of your mind if you think those 2 have more value than Taijuan Walker
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Walker isn’t that good. Brett Myers was a better prospect at the same age. Walker is all fastball. His curve isn’t even close to what Myers was at the same age and more importantly Walker’s changeup sucks balls.
Walker will be a starter for a few years but then head to the pen, and that’s if he doesn’t burn out with his fastball trying to succeed as a starter.
Franklin and Zunino are definitely worth more.
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Where do you get your scouting reports? His curveball flashes being a really good pitch, he has a plus cutter already, the changeup is lacking but shows good potential but he is 20 years old. He is striking out way more batters than Myers ever did, his fastball is much better as well.
I might take Zunino in front of him on proximity, but not upside. Franklin is an average 2B at this point. Not being able to stick at SS was the end of his high upside. Miller is much more likely to be their SS of the future.
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“Where do you get your scouting reports?”
I read one – with video – at Baseball Prospectus last week. It was a free look tweeted out by the obscene professor.
“His curveball flashes being a really good pitch”
Myers curveball didn’t “flash” being good, it was a plus MLB quality curve when Myers was 20 years old.
BP rates Walker’s changeup as a 40 on the scouting scale, but if you read what’s written it’s a 30. Myers arrived in MLB with a 50 changeup.
Walker’s fastball is definitely better than Myers, but without a usable quality changeup or a plus breaking ball it’s irrelevant. His fastball could conceivably get better and he could learn to use it so it was more than one pitch, but that’s all conjecture. At this point Walker is not MLB ready (outside of SAFECO) and without some major improvements he will never sniff the ceiling that many are dreaming about.
Nick Franklin is a bat. As someone in the Phillies base I understand that this is a foreign concept, but to those in the know, it’s all about the bat. The fact that he’s a bat at 2B makes him someone special. Remember when Utley was a bat at 2B and playing the whole season?
I wonder if there’s someone who can play 2B and hit like that on the free agent market? Oh…Don’t you know, it’s….
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I do know the chances of all of these things happening ie stats and prospect rankings, It’s just a lot of what if’s
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Off topic, but I was looking at the Phillies drafts since 2004 and it’s pretty astounding how bad they were, especially in the mid-2000s:
2004 – Total WAR: 4.3, best player has been JA Happ (4.8 WAR) who hasn’t had a positive WAR since 2010.
2005 – Total WAR: -2.1, best player was Josh Outman (1.4 WAR) who has a career 4.74 ERA despite pitching in Oakland.
2006 – Total WAR: -1.1, best player has been Jason Donald (1.4 WAR) who’s back in the minors after a .672 OPS over three seasons. Dom Brown was also in this draft but he’s been worth almost 3 wins less than Donald.
2007 – Total WAR: -2, best player has been Justin De Fratus (.1 WAR), who’s been solid in limited relief work.
2008 – Total WAR: 5.7, best player has been Vance Worley (4 WAR) who owns a 6.20 ERA with bad peripherals with the Twins this year.
It’s too early to judge the more recent drafts, but we haven’t drafted a player who’s produced 5 career WAR since Bourn in 2003. That’s a long drought.
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All pitchers, except Jason Donald.
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Looks like we can’t blame Ruben for those drafts!
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Mike Arbuckle was told to clean out his desk and leave when?
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He never was told to leave. He left for a better job after Phillies picked RAJ instead of him to succeed Gillick.
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Yeah, I remember when the Phillies won the Series and on the national TV locker room celebration Gillick, Montgomery, Giles thanked Ed Wade for all the work that Mike Arbuckle actually performed.
Really classy of them eh?
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I was going over drafts too. and how other teams move players. one thing that was good to me is that , even though I agree the drafts weren’t great. 2008 has seven players from the Phillies that have played in the majors. I know that I don’t know as much as others, on here but seven is a lot to make the majors from one draft. Worley ,Pettibone, Stutes. Gose. Swimmer, Rosenberg, Cloyd and Cosart in a matter of days.
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Chase Utley scratched from the lineup again. Seems like, between him and Howard, the “let’s see Freddy play every day” crowd is going to get their wish.
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Was he “scratched” or given a day off? Those are different things.
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Scratched as he felt pain in the rib area when batting. Not sure if it is serious or not.
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I wonder if it is a bruised rib from the head-first slide into second the other night and called out, in which he was actually safe as it appears on replay?
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My 2014 lineup;
Choo
Utley
Headley
Howard
Ruf
Brown
Rollins
Ruiz
Hamels
Lee
Kendrick
Morgan/Biddle
Lannon/Cloyd
How I get there:
1. Sign Choo
2. Trade Pettibone(or Kendrick), Galvis and Ashee/Franco for Headley.
Reasoning: I think Headley is a game changer and will be available. Choo will be a great lead off hitter for next 5 years. As a phillies fan I would love to see Rollins and Utley finish their careers here.
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Headley is going to return a Top 20 prospect or multiple Top 100’s in return for Headley. I suspect any interested team can make a better offer than Kendrick, Galvis and Asche. Solid players but not the type of pedigree the Padres would be looking for. Also consider Kendrick’s contract status would be unattractive for the Pods
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Exchange Kendrick with Biddle and Ashee with Franco, is that enough? I would rather have Headley than Stanton because I believe Stanton is going to battle injuries.
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“I would rather have Headley than Stanton”
Why should San Diego get rid of Headley? They have no payroll. If they ever want to straighten out their TV problems they are going to have to become competitive for more than one season.
Your prospect package has no interest for the Padres either. They have a deep farm system that every professional prospect watcher rates as worlds better than the Phillies. The Padres would be the next team after Seattle that I could see making a move for Stanton. They would also be number two with Loria because they are in the NL, but they are on the west coast.
Not a ballpark that free agent bats flock to so trading for Stanton – who is also from southern California – makes good sense for the Padres.
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http://network.yardbarker.com/all_sports/article_external/padres_rumors_chase_headley_likely_to_be_traded_by_july_31/13555199
I was some what suprised to read this even though just a rumor. I am just saying if he is available the Phillies should make a play for him.
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I agree that that package wouldn’t get you Headley, but JMills’ post is a good attempt at the type of thinking that this team needs to be truly comeptivie over the next couple of years.
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Yeah – I like the thoughts. Phils will have some money and Choo makes a lot of sense. I hate to think what he might command on the open market if he finishes with an MVP-type season though. Probably an overpay for someone but this team needs numerous impact bats and is going to need to make a FA splash to address some of the problems. I’m not sure how I feel about going after Headley at this stage. In any season it could all come together but it looks like this team misses the playoffs for at least the next few years and I don’t think Headley changes that. Biddle, Asche and Galvis would peak the Pods interest though
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Been thinking about the likelihood of big club players being traded. Below in order of most likely.
MYoung – all but a certainty IMO
ABastardo – been thinking a lot about Bastardo and think he’s a good candidate to be moved
CLee – I’d prefer to keep Lee unless a MLB Top 10 prospect is offered or we can somehow get a team to take RHoward as well
Utley – looking good for a q.o. RAJ seems to have trouble valuating these situations but if Utley can return a valuable piece then I think we should consider
Rollins – so many playoff caliber teams can use a SS upgrade. Will be interesting to see what is offered for Rollins or if he truly shows willingness to waive his no-trade clause. I suspect he would
Papelbon – could move up the ranks in a hurry. Again, many playoff contenders may be in need of a closer.
Of the regular contributors, I see the above as the most likely to be moved. Howard, Revere, DYoung, Kendrick, MAdams all for one reason or another seem less likely to me. Thoughts?
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Bleacher on Phillies Draft Picks:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1647960-phillies-2013-mock-draft-projecting-their-top-5-first-round-targets?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=philadelphia-phillies#/articles/1647960-phillies-2013-mock-draft-projecting-their-top-5-first-round-targets/page/2
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Phillies have four of the top one hundred picks since they wouldn’t go one dollar over slot for Alec Rash who they knew required $300,000 over where they chose him before the draft. I expect four high school bats with those picks.
BATS.
Not gloves. Not speed. Not “tools”.
HIT TOOL.
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I can’t pay much attention to that article, you can’t eliminate positions in the draft and only say the phillies are going to focus on 1b and of
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Heard Aumont being sent to AAA, is this true?
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Yes the Phillies just tweeted it
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A different take on Cole Hamels’ year to date. Not totally unusual for great lefties.
Lefties who had blips on the way in their careers:
Steve Carlton-1973 (13-20)
Warren Spahn – 1952 (14-19)
Cliff Lee – 2007 (5-8)
Randy Johnson – 1992 (12-14)
Sandy Koufax-1960 (8-13)
Lefty Grove – 1934 (8-8)
Tom Glavine – 1990 (10-12)
Carl Hubbell – 1931 (14-12)
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I thought Hamels “blip” was in 2009.
That Marlins lineup is tough huh? Can’t throw a shutout against them can you?
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There’s something else to consider in regard to the Choo-Choo Train and Robbie Cano. If a team signs free agents of this magnitude one each year they lose two first round picks in successive years. Three years in a row and that’s three first round picks. This is what the Phillies have been doing.
Sign them in the same year, be the big player and you lose a 2nd round pick for the second big free agent and a third round pick for the third big free agent. Striking in one year pays dividends for the farm system.
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I really will have a hard time. as a Phillies fan to have to watch 4 more years of Ryan Howard. ownership must step up and eat a lot of this contract, and let him go for nothing, he is just getting worse.
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