General Discussion – Week of 5-13-2013 – Jet Lag Edition

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I don’t know about you, but I am bushed from a week of late night games. The weekend did nothing to rejuvenate me. And unlike those spoiled ballplayers, I had to work today. I will be expecting an apology from someone on that team later this week.

150 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 5-13-2013 – Jet Lag Edition”

  1. Phillies have signed 17 year old German outfieler Julsan Kamara to a 7 year MILB deal. Very athletic( runs a 6.64 60) and has good power potential. Interesting pick up for the Phils but sounds like a good move!

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    1. Definitely interesting, because of school he won’t be stateside until spring 2014 (likely late spring) which would essentially make him the equivalent age of a high schooler in the 2014 draft who gets to go to extended spring training early. Phillies definitely look into Europe having grabbed Minarik a couple of years ago.

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  2. Interesting to see in this story today on Baseball America, the Phils are rumored to be the front-runner for one of the top 10 Dominican prospects available this summer, Luis Encarnacion. This kid is an absolute butcher at 3rd base (as seen in the video). I asked Ben Badler about that, and he said his bat is so good that teams are looking past his fielding, and that he will be moved to either LF or 1B.
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/ten-international-prospects-to-watch-for-july-2/

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      1. With an international draft on the horizon, might as well spend now before win/loss records determine who goes where. Thought they would’ve done that before bonus pools went into effect though.

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        1. So once there is a international draft. The limits on spending will only be something,that they would like you to do. is that correct?

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          1. No roccom….the latest CBA restricts each club for spending on international signees starting last year (2012).. This is MLB’s method to create fairness and equity until a draft is formulated The trouble is there are too many differing views on how a draft shouyld be run. Whether or not to be separate and apart from the NA June draft or whether or not to be incorporated. Then there is the age issue with the players selected, be it still 15-year olds or HS grads.

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            3. You can go over the limit, but you will be penalized. If you go over your signing pool allotment by up to 5% it’s basically like the ‘luxury tax’ where you pay a penalty fee to MLB of 75%. Say you go over by $100,000. That’s a $75,000 fee.

              However once you get beyond 5% you enter into more substantial penalties. 5-10% would mean you lose the right to offer any player $500,000 or higher as a bonus next year (or if there is as draft you lose your 1st round pick)

              10-15% is 100% tax on every dollar over and the same $500,000 limit. But if there’s a draft you lose your 1st & 2nd round picks.

              15% or more is 100% tax a $225,000 max signing limit or if there is a draft you lose 1st round picks for the next TWO drafts.

              There are similar penalties for controlling spending in the MLB amateur draft. I believe some teams crept into the 0-5% overspending range last year, but I do not believe any team went beyond that (which would have resulted in loss of draft pick)

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            4. Tampa flew past the limit. Signed an awesome Venezuelan LHP – Jose Castillo – who at 16 has a fastball better than Hamels. Spent around $4 million on major signs. There’s a YouTube video of Castillo pitching. STUD.

              The Phillies will never do that. David Montgomery campaigned hard for these limits. That’s why you’re seeing the Phillies making major signings now. The Texas Rangers can’t drop a $3 million bonus on Luis Encarnacion.

              The Phillies should also sign Rafael Devers who is a third baseman, but the Red Sox want him, and the Phillies aren’t going to do what Tampa did last year, and push Boston out of the way. That’s the opposite of who David Montgomery is and that’s why the Phillies can’t hit their way out of a paper sack.

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    1. If the Phillies sign Encarcion that would be a great start to the International signings. I hope he hits as well as Stanton minus the injuries.

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    2. For one…Cesar Hernandez will be an everyday major league player…has improved in EVERY category over the years.

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  8. not much meat but here is quick summary:

    * Didn’t know name of German guy signed today. But heard int’l scout talk about him few weeks ago. Said he won’t forget that name again.
    * Biddle – fighting upper respiratory virus for last 10 days.
    * Asche – mentally strong.
    * Ruf – LF not a concern. Bat will play at major league level.
    * Cloyd: picked over Morgan because they just trusted him more and came off best start of season.
    * Gillies – changed his set-up. Might be over-thinking at plate.
    * Hernandez – has gotten better across the board including being more vocal. Will be everyday player at ML level.

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    1. Thanks! I wish Biddle a speedy revcovery. I know how annoying an upper respiratory virus can be.

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    2. Wait, our Director of Player Development didn’t know Kamara’s name? Was his signing very minor? Just seems weird he wouldn’t know we signed him.

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  9. Caught 2 Blueclaws games and 2 Ironpigs games last week. Not much to report back on from the Lakewood side except for seeing Chace Numata hit one of the farthest home runs that I have ever seen at the ballpark in Greensboro for a grand slam. Larry Greene was nothing special, he was everything that I expected which wasn’t very average. Tocci is just skin and bones but he has so much talent and he impressed me with the way he closes in on balls to the outfield. Quinn is extremely raw, maybe if he turns it around could he see Clearwater. Then it was off to Durham to see the ‘Pigs. The elite match was Adam Morgan vs. Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi was coming off a no-hitter and he shut down the Ironpigs. Ruf has taken a step back offensively compared to what I saw mechanically last year. Morgan allowed 5-6 runs in only a couple innings of work. Offensively it was exciting to see last years 1 and 2 in MILB HR’s go against each other Ruf, and Wil Myers. Morgan in the 1st inning of his outing put a 92 MPH fastball right in Myers wheelhouse in which he deposited well over the 30 foot wall in left. It was ugly but, the ‘Pigs managed to split. I saw Rosenberg pitch on Sunday and he pitched really well giving up 4 hits over 7 innings striking out only 3. Jimenez about blew a 6-0 lead by allowing 4 in the 8th but Diekman shut it down in the ninth. He pitched well, I think the problem he has with command is due to the way he grips the ball. I sat next to the LHV bullpen and watched him warm up. He fingers are so long that he wraps them around the ball, which for most of us is like gripping the ball too hard which causes a lack of command. It is tough to figure out because IMO if he was to rest the ball in his fingers it may be too light of a grip… whatever, he pitched well hitting 96 on the gun.

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    1. Forgot to add… Asche was very impressive defensively, very formidable at third. Hernandez also impressed, he is for sure the most consistant player on the team. You can expect him to put the ball in play everytime he is up.

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      1. Asche and Ruf are both hard workers and its showing in their defense improvement. These guys are going to make it.

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  10. Mike Schmidt retired in 1989 when his OBP was just .297. Schmidt was in tears because his OBP was this low and he couldn’t do any better.

    Domonic Brown .301
    Jimmy Rollins .296
    STINKBERRY .295
    Ryan Howard .286
    Ben Revere .286

    .

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    1. And that’s one of the many problems with the phillies. They don’t value walks nearly enough.

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      1. Yeah, walks are meaningless, it’s productivity that counts. Get it?

        By the way, can you possibly imagine being this clueless in your own job? It’s utterly incomprehensible. I think (Amaro) he can’t possibly be this stupid (it’s less stupidity than willful ignorance), but then he keeps working hard to provide me wrong.

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        1. prove me wrong, sorry. I get pissed off and don’t type well when I think about some of the things Amaro does.

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          1. I disagree Catch. They brought in Wally Joyner who held a career 10% walk rate and .362 OBP so clearly he knows the value of getting on base. And if you paid attention to the broadcast the other night you heard Wheels talk about the hitters only meetings and the evaluations they are doing on each AB that results in a K. You can lead a horse to water…

            I think some read too much into public statements made out of frustration. Hendu also while not as accomplished as Joyner still managed a 8% BB rate in his career.

            First and foremost do they want their hitters to do damage with a hit (wRC sure values that over a BB) I think yes but I also see evidence they are preaching to these guys to take what the pitcher is going to give.

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            1. Since you are going back to coachs history…better look at Rubens’ MiLB and MLB walk rates…..and then he purports a completely different philosphy…go figure.

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            2. I am not sure that the lack of respect for walks is totally due to Amaro. I think it is Charlie who is always talking about being an aggressive hitter and I think that he encourages the players to swing rather than to take pitches. in any event, the Phillies don’t have anyone in the top 20 of the NL in pitches per plate appearance. Ryan Howard is leading them now with 4.01 pitches per plate appearance (tied for 22nd in the league) and it could be argued that, in his case, the stats are inflated by his inability to make contact. Next comes Brown who is 38th in the NL at 3.87. Overall, not a very patient team at the plate.

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            3. Charlie giving almost every player a green light on every 3-0 count doesn’t help, and it doesn’t send a message of valuing a BB.

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          2. DMAR,

            Obviously to a certain extent ALL of us are speculating. Here’s my take, unsurprisingly closer to Catch’s than yours:

            Let’s start with the obvious observation that all of this is relative, in the sense that no one thinks that Amaro thinks that walks are bad. The problem is that he undervalues them relative to other elements of offense. I think the “first and foremost do they want their hitters to do damage with a hit” is true and very illuminating. Yes, a hit is better than a walk, but putting the ball in play results much more often than an out. A walk is better than putting the ball in play (the rare exceptions end up as IBB). In a sense, you might even say that the problem isn’t so much undervaluing BBs, but under estimating the cost of an out.

            This manifests itself in approach. Obviously (some minor exceptions aside) no one wants to see players swing at balls out of the zone or not swing at strikes. But players can’t tell with anywhere near 100% accuracy what’s going to be a strike and what’s going to be a ball. So it MATTERS which “mistake” – swinging at a pitch outside the strike zone, or not swinging at a pitch inside the strike zone – is considered “worse.” I think there is abundant evidence that the organizational philosophy is to err on the side of aggressiveness – rather swing at some pitches outside the zone than not swing at pitches in the zone.

            And while obviously there is a happy median in terms of aggressiveness, I think it’s pretty clear that the Phillies’ hitters are WAY too aggressive. And I think there is abundant evidence – both in terms of how players have developed (look at D. Brown) and in terms of player selection – that this over aggressive style is driven by the organization.

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            1. Great post Larry… the three exceptions to your point on aggressive swinging are Utley, Ruiz and Werth. While I can point to player acquisition, via the draft and FA as a sign of their lack of BB value, I have a harder time drawing the same conclusion when evaluating their overly aggressive swinging. I agree with your premise (that they don’t value a walk enough), but I think they are overly aggressive because they’ve signed overly aggressive players not via encouragement.

              So we come to the same conclusion, we just get there a different way. That said, Dominic Brown’s reduced BB% this year might be evidence of your point carrying the day. 🙂

              That said, this point

              “Yes, a hit is better than a walk, but putting the ball in play results much more often than an out. A walk is better than putting the ball in play (the rare exceptions end up as IBB). In a sense, you might even say that the problem isn’t so much undervaluing BBs, but under estimating the cost of an out.”

              Is 1000% right.

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            3. You can view this through the perspective of Money Ball. Walks and OBP had been undervalued, so the wise investment was to get players who were undervalued because OBP was a key part of their game and their more traditional measures, like BA and SB, which most GMs over-valued, were not as good as their OBP. It allowed a team with less budget or a lower draft position to get better players than they otherwise would.

              Now most GMs have a healthy respect for OBP. RAJ didn’t have a lot of money this winter. He had a team which vastly disappointed in 2012. Moreover, he had multiple holes to fill. He needed to do something to give fans enough hope to sell tickets. He knew that a lot of the Phillies media and the Phillies casual fanbase who are on the margin about buying tickets, really isn’t into OBP or modern stats. He found the Money Ball sweet spot in terms of budget/PR and signed bad players whom he could acquire cheaply and then hype in terms of the old stats and past performance. Delmon Young was a former supremo draft pick who had a great year once upon a time. Michael Young had past success but coming off a bad year. Revere had a lot of SB. Adams had been good but also had injury woes. With this off-season mix, RAJ would weave his saga of hope and it wouldn’t cost him many $ to pull it off. Did he ever believe these guys were as good as he said and that he was buy ‘production’ rather than foofy modern stats? Probably not. The man has a budget and tickets to sell. There were better guys available over the winter, but RAJ couldn’t afford them.

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            4. I think Larry’s right in that there is encouragement of an aggressive style through the organization. And it’s not just Dom Brown.

              This could all just be coincidence, but I remember early in the year, or maybe spring training, one of the coaches was talking about how they wanted Mayberry to be more aggressive at the plate.

              Also, in an article in the Inquirer about Albert Cartwright, Joe Jordan said “To his credit in spring training our focus was for him to be aggressive, trust his ability and he has responded and has been a presence at the top of the lineup.”

              This past Sunday there was a blurb about Dugan in the Inquirer where Jordan says “I think he has a chance to be an offensive presence in the major leagues… He’s an aggressive hitter…”

              It’s like “aggressive” is the word of the day for the Phils. Or maybe the word of every day.

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            5. I’m not being smart I’m just trying to get clarity because I think D Brown is a great example. It’s your opinion that Amaro told D Brown he needs to change his approach from what we saw from him in the minors to what he is doing now?

              And are you mooting the point that was discussed on air about the work Joyner and Hendu have been doing with the hitting meetings.

              I don’t know. I put it on the players they are the ones swinging at pitches out of the zone and getting themselves out. Again Larry and you know I have a tremendous amount of respect for all the guys here that passionately participate in the discussion but this constant nit picking of that quote is tired…

              And I saw an interview with Buck Showalter two weeks into the season where he essentially said the same thing to Brian Kinney on MLB network when he tried to spout off rhetoric on the same topic so my question is, is Buck Showalter also ignorant?

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            6. It is who is drawing the BB that is of most importance….3-4-5-6 have a need for speed thru the strike zone. Whilst, 1-2-7-8 should not balk but go for the walk.

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            7. DMAR,

              I’m not sure specifically which statements from the organization that you are referring to. My experience is that most statements from the organization on the point are fairly vague and meaningless (not a criticism in itself, that’s what organizations do in their public statements). Something like “preaching to these guys to take what the pitcher is going to give” or “better approach” are without content and will be interpreted to fit the reader’s preconceived opinions.

              But reading the tea leaves as best I can, both in terms of explicit statements, player acquisition, and player development, I think it’s pretty clear the organization as a whole – not just Amaro – favors an (overly) aggressive approach.

              This would be an interesting study, though I suspect I have a pretty good idea of the ratio. In public comments regarding hitters coming from the organization, how often is the term “aggressive” used compared to the term “patient?”

              All that said, it certainly would be possible to overstate the effect of all of this on the team’s hitting. Aging is a factor, though less than people realize, and personnel changes not driven just or even primarily by a philosophy about approach. But I do think that it is part of the problem, and, maybe even more to the point, will make it very tough to fix things going forward. (Allentown’s point about money ball is a good one; also, I do think this is a negative factor in terms of player development).

              As for Brown, is he listening to the organization, or just deciding on his own to be more aggressive? Who knows. Either way, he may be screwing up his last chance to succeed with this organization.

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    2. I saw Schmidt play his last game. He finished with a short fly to right field off a fastball that a year earlier would have ended up in the stands. He had just lost it and knew it. The OBP was one of many things that had lowered for him. He had enough dignity to stop embarrassing himself.

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    1. Most systems usually have a guy that seemingly comes from no where Cam might be that guy. As with Asche let’s see how he handles the adjustment to AA whether it be this season or next.

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    2. He has been a hitting machine since his freshman year at Purdue. And Ruben really must like him…since he historically has drawn percentage-wise few walks.

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    3. Given his age – gotta move him to AA sooner rather than later. Could be like Asche and get all the way to LHV next year.

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  12. A bit early for this:

    With Hernandez looking like a lock to be on the team in the near future, if we traded Utley at the trade deadline, what level prospect could he fetch? (I think they have to deal him.. will be 35 in December)

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    1. I would be surprised if they deal Utley. As to what you could get for him, probably a prospect in the 75-100 range on a good day. It’s those damn knees, if it had been a 1 year injury, and he rebounded immediately it probably would have been a 25-50 prospect. He’s also a rental so that makes it difficult to get much value. Aside from that, he’s our best offensive player by a large margin, until you, or more importantly the Phillies are willing to concede the season, and potentially next year as well, they shouldn’t trade him.

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    2. The won’t, and shouldn’t trade him. He’ll most likely be re-signed; if not, he’ll be tendered and they’ll get a sandwich pick. If they did trade him, they won’t get much. Think a Martin type prospect.

      Hernandez may end up being a solid major league player. He won’t be on the team “in the near future.” He’ll be a September call up. IF they don’t resign Utley, Hernandez MIGHT be the regular second baseman in 2014. More likely it would be Galvis.

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      1. Prefer Galvis and Hernandez as ss and 2nd combo respectively…friend no less from the Ven.

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        1. Prefer for what reason? Better in the short term? No, surely not. Utley is still a lot better than Hernandez; Galvis/Rollins is closer, but it’s by no means clear that Galvis would be an improvement. Cheaper? Yes, but so what, with a payroll well under the luxury tax threshold and a crap FA market. Better in the long term? Maybe (at some point surely), but not a reason to make a move now. Trade value of Rollins/Utely? Not much there.

          What’s left? Aesthetics. Some people apparently would prefer losing more games with young guys rather than winning more games with established stars. I’m not one of those people.

          Both Hernandez and Galvis have propelled themselves from AAAA/major league bench guys to decent prospects. Good for them, But neither is going to be a star. Why people are in such a rush to replace the best SS and best second baseman in Phillies history (both by a comfortable margin) is beyond me. Especially because Utley and Rollins are NOT THE PROBLEM. Utley is the team’s best player. Rollins, despite mediocre hitting, is the team’s third best regular. The team has gotten essentially nothing from the OF, first base or catcher, Halladay had four horrible starts before hitting the DL, and Hamels has not been himself. The fact that the team is only 3 games under .500 despite those facts is fairly remarkable.

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          1. ‘Why people are in such a rush to replace the best SS and best second baseman in Phillies history (both by a comfortable margin) is beyond me’….are they still the best , Utley maybe, but will they be the best in the next 24 months?

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        2. Win shares is imperfect, but here’s an interesting comparison:

          2013 WS SS, 2B, 3B: 3.2
          2013 WS OF, 1B, C: -0.7

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        3. I would add this …

          Regarding Rollins, there’s a little bit of a catch 22. If he continues slumping, while he still has some trade value (still above average defense and base running, and his hitting for a short stop isn’t horrible), he’s not likely to get much back in a trade. OTOH, if he rebounds, his trade value might be higher, but there will be less reason to trade him. Obviously Galvis is a variable here also. I’ll concede that a case can be made for at least seeing what the market is for Rollins, but not yet, let’s see at least another 100 PA for Galvis.

          With Utley/Hernandez the calculation is different. Maybe Utley wants to test the market; maybe his demands are too steep. So I could see a situation where he ends up signing elsewhere (and the Phillies get a sandwich pick). But make no mistake, that would make the team worse in the short run.

          Could both things happen, giving us a 2014 keystone of Hernandez and Galvis? Yes, though IMO not likely. But 2014 at the earliest, and at a cost in short term wins. Unless the team makes upgrades elsewhere (not easy), the hitting would be the worst in the league. Yes, worse than the Marlins. it’s not something to look forward to.

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      2. People really undervalue Utley. It’s quite disturbing.

        Not you Larry, but posters who constantly talk about Hernandez like he’s the second coming of Utley.

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        1. Utley gives you pop at 2B, a rare commodity in baseball. Even now, he leads the Phillies in HRs. If Hernandez were to replace Utley for any reason, they would have to increase the pop somewhere else, such as 3B or right field. This team is not very good at getting baserunners home, so they really need the HR ball.

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          1. Yes, but he is also an extreme injury risk and is aging. With his contract expiring at the end of the year and the Phillies unlikely to be a serious contender in 2014, resigning Utley is likely not a good option, unless the price is severely discounted from his current contract and the contract length is short. Having Hernandez ready to go just further tips the scales to moving Utley, at least from a baseball standpoint. The arguments for keeping Utley seem to begin and end with sentiment and ticket sales. Really, this could be Daulton/Dykstra all over again, although the warning signs with Utley have been much greater and the passage of time since the WS much longer.

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        2. Hernandez can be better then Utley in every department except power (HR) production. And like BA and RBIs to the true sabrmetric, this is an over-valued measurements.

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          1. I wouldn’t argue that Hernandez is likely to be as good as Utley in either 2013 or 2014, simply that the Phillies will not be winners with or without Utley and that by 2015, Hernandez isn’t a bad bet to be as good as and certainly much cheaper than the Utley of 2015.

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          2. That’s hilarious. But I think your parody is a little too over the top; no one will believe that anyone could possibly be that stupid.

            It’s interesting, actually – it’s a sign of just how good Utley is, that, even in his mid 30s and two bad knees, he is probably better than Hernandez (a legitimate prospect) in every aspect of the game. Except speed, and even there Utley is an historically efficient base stealer, whereas Hernandez, before this year, wasn’t even stealing bases at a break even percentage.

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            1. I was referring to anon, not to allentown. I think allentown is wrong for a whole host of reasons, which i won’t repeat yet again, but he’s not stupid.

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            2. So in 2015……Uts will be ‘better’ then CesarH….and will also give Phillies ‘better’ opp for WS success? Interesting. Your reasoning probably parallels Rubens. Great minds must think alike. I recall you mentioned Ruben as one of the village people awhile back. Again, interesting.

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            3. Who’s talking about 2015? I strongly suspect that Utley will be better even then, and their chances of WS success nil either way.

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            4. Well, it depends upon whether one believes the problem with Utley’s knees have been solved or are a time bomb waiting to explode. This is the first recent season without a prolonged injury absense for Utley. I think it not at all unreasonable to suspect that two years from now Utley will be less physically able to make it through a season and to perform at a high level. I think it also reasonable to expect some increase in power from Hernandez as he adds two years. He still won’t come close to matching the power that Utley has today.

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          3. It is the power numbers across the board. I don’t think Hernandez will even approach Utley’s 2Bs totals. Then you have the OBP, Hernandez is going to have to maintain a high BABIP and contact rate to get close to Utley. Hernandez is a nice little player but he is nothing to make room for or to count on.

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            1. Interestingly, back in the spring 2011, Hernandez was ranked as the 5th best 2nd base prospect by MLB.com and BP, if I remember correctly.

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    3. Because Utley is just a rental, if he stays healthy until we get close to the trade deadline and keeps hitting well I don’t think his knee issues matter for a team that’s just looking to stock up for a playoff run. They won’t have to worry about his knees going forward. And because of that I think he would bring a better return than Victorino, since Utley is better and plays a position that’s more valuable. I don’t know about a star-level prospect, but still a pretty good package.

      That said, unless a team really blows us away with an offer, or if Utley requests one more chance to win somewhere else, I’d rather keep him.

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  13. There hasn’t been an official thread on this, so I figured I would post this here. What is everyone’s feelings on the Juslan Kamara signing? A good use of resources or trying to find a diamond in the rough?

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    1. What kind of competition do they have in germany? I think its so hard to evalute kids in weak competition. The little that I have read suggest to me. he is athlethic and toolsy.so not bad signing if its not costing you anything but some money.

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    2. Read Max Kepler’s wiki.

      He’s a bogus German. If you asked him at the batting cage who he was and he used his father’s surname and told you he was from La Jolla or Santa Barbara you wouldn’t suspect anything.

      Don’t get too excited.

      The Phillies need to sign Rafael Devers. Don’t you know, he’s the next Robbie Cano.

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        1. You responded to anon….and anon has all the insinuations of our guy…FR.AEC. Just a hunch.

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    3. Read Max Kepler’s wiki.

      Kepler is a bogus German. If you asked him at the batting cage who he was and he used his father’s surname and told you he was from La Jolla or Santa Barbara you wouldn’t suspect anything.

      Don’t get too excited.

      The Phillies need to sign Rafael Devers. Don’t you know, he’s the next Robbie Cano.

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  14. Caesar Hernandez is a toothpick bat.

    Hernandez’s future – like that of Ben Revere – is elsewhere.

    There is no place in the Phillies lineup for a toothpick bat. Everyone must hit and hit with power for the Phillies to be a serious team.

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  15. The 2012 San Francisco Giants were not a pitching team, they were a hitting team. Bogus Phillies fans and Philly media members with a football between their ears are completely unaware that Citizen’s Bank Park is a hitters park, which makes the Phillies lineup look better than it is (hard to believe I know, but it’s worse than you think) and makes their pitching look worse than it is.

    Conversely, the Giants play in one of the worst hitters parks in the game. Their pitching is not as good as you may think and their hitting is much better. Buster Posey would have won the Triple Crown in the NL if he started for the Phillies.

    Using OPS+ and ERA+ which adjust for park factors, the Phillies were not the 19th best run scoring team in MLB, they were tied for 23rd. The Giants were not the 11th best run scoring team, they were FOURTH.

    The 2012 Phillies were the twelfth best pitching team, the Giants were NINETEENTH.

    Phillies 12th best pitching, 23rd in hitting.

    Giants 4th best hitting, 19th in pitching.

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  16. Caesar Hernandez is a toothpick bat.

    His future – like that of Ben Revere – is elsewhere.

    There is no place in the Phillies lineup for a toothpick bat. Everyone must hit and hit with power for the Phillies to be a serious team.
    .

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    1. Really, everyone must hit for power? You mean like Phil Rizzuto for the old Yankees, or Mark Belanger for the Orioles, or Omar Vizquel for the Indians, or Ozzie Smith for the Cardinals? Where do you get this stuff and, by the way, what makes you think that Cesar can’t hit more than enough to at least be a competent regular? Hitting for power would be great, but he should have a high Avg, his walk ratio is improving as is his SB/CS ratio. He’s also said to be a fine fielder. So yeah, would it be great if he hit like Utley? Sure it would. But can he help the team hitting with less power . . . hell yeah.

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  17. Was I ever wrong!. Back in 2010, of the ‘Baby Aces’…Cosart, May, Rodriguez, Colvin and Pettibone…Pettibone was near the last that I thought would be in the MLB and making an impact so early.

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      1. What Kevin Frandsen had to say about Pettibone:
        That mentality is what impressed Frandsen about Pettibone from the time Pettibone was a 19-year-old in Single A. “I saw him — I guess it was an unfortunate situation where I was suspended and went down to Clearwater and I was rehabbing there two years ago — and the first thing I said when I came back to Lehigh was, ‘That kid is the best of the three,’” Frandsen recalled, referring back to Pettibone, Jarred Cosart and Trevor May….’

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  18. Consider Halladay had given up 33 runs all earned in 34.1 IP. Pettibone 11 all earned in 29 IP. I’m always suspect with young pitchers until they cycle through the league 2-3 times but if you’re the Phillies you definitely take advantage of what Pettibone gives you right now.

    Not unlike Kendrick a few years back and Worley most recently. Every team has a guy that doesn’t have amazing stuff but can get outs and keep you in games!

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    1. I really believe that the reason Pettibone is pitching so well.is that he is not leaving his fastball, or change over the plate. You can see that his breaking ball is the one that is not really good. That is the reason. that the Phillies wanted him to stay at triple a and get a better breaking ball.but injuries rush him.I mean he does throw 90-93 so that’s good. and he does have some idea of how to work the hitters. so far so good.

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      1. Pettibone was a complete mess in spring training and obviously in his first two starts in triple-A. I see improvement in his stuff from his first start up here until last night as well. He’s got some arm side run movement on his fastball now where before it was laser beam straight. The ball breaks away sharply from a LH batter as it gets to the zone. That just did not exist for Pettibone two months ago.

        Pettibone does still need a good breaking ball though if he’s going to survive against a good/hot hitting lineup.

        As for Cosart, he’s doing well. His fastball is special too.

        Oh, and Domingo Santana is rocking a .906 OPS in double-A.

        It’s conceivable that if Jonathan Singleton smoked his way out of baseball the Astros still would have done very well in that deal. Could be far worse than the Sandberg trade with the Cubs.

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        1. Gonna be pretty hard to be “far worse” than that trade. I could see several scenarios where it’s “as bad”, and maybe with some real good luck in Houston and bad luck in Philly, “worse”, but “far worse” would take a fairly absolute Tommy Joseph flameout and what? Two hall of fame careers out of those three Houston guys? I’m agreeing with you, though. Could be real bad.

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        2. Singleton and Cosart will hurt … badly. Santana’s K-rate is nearly 33 percent, though. He’s got power to spare, but striking out that much at AA typically does not translate to major league success.

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          1. If Santana were 22 or 23 I’d agree with you, but he’s 20 years old. He’s 6 months older than Roman Quinn. I know there are scouts who are doubtful he’ll be able to fix the holes in his swing, but he’s got the time to work on it.

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  19. With approximately one fourth of the season over, let’s look at full season projections.
    players AB R HIT 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO
    Rollins 612 68 152 44 04 08 48 44 112
    CUtley 568 84 164 28 08 28 96 52 104
    Howard 556 70 140 36 00 24 88 36 176
    DBrown 544 60 140 16 00 28 76 36 112
    MYoung 528 60 160 24 04 04 36 72 96
    BRevere 472 52 112 04 04 00 20 32 68
    Nix/Mayb 604 76 144 40 04 16 60 60 156
    Kr/Ru/Q 560 56 116 20 00 08 40 36 144

    Observations; basically no production from center field and catchers. Nix and Mayberry aren’t terrible. It can only get better, right?

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    2. “Nix and Mayberry aren’t terrible.”

      Yes, they are terrible. In fact they are horrible. It’s just stunning that their wretchedness is not obvious to you.

      Michael Young has a .387 OBP (On Base Percentage). That’s very good. If any other three Phillies players were punched out of the lineup and replaced by Michael Young clones with .387 OBP the Phillies lineup would be decent.

      It’s stunning that you made no mention of this. In real life are you Phillies’ TV broadcaster T-Tard?

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      2. Of course, I forgot to mention STINKBERRY’s intangibles. When those are considered his wretchedness is truly appalling.

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    3. RAJ has lost his mind. If the Phils go into another swoon heading into July, they should really let RAJ go before any deadline deals are struck.

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      1. Cameron Perkins, Aaron Altherr and as the PTBNL Carlos Tocci to Seattle for Michael Morse.

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      2. I don’t see why you would say that. This was a totally harmless deal. Also, I thought RAJ did quite well with last season’s deals. Really, getting anything at all for Thome was a plus and the return on both Victorino and Pence were as good as one could reasonably expect. I don’t see how one can seriously criticize him for the deadline deals.

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        1. Yes, the only deals that bother me are the ones he made with his friend Ed Wade. Roy O. and Hunter P. could have been obtained with one less, lesser player in each deal if he would have played hardball with Ed. In any event, spilled milk.

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      3. I disagree. The Phillies will have him on the shortest of short leashes and, unlike their other middle/long relievers, Zambrano still has some talent (quite a bit actually – last year he was regularly throwing in the mid-90s. I’d rather see Zambrano enter a game than Horst, Durbin or Valdes and, therefore, the move is fine. And he offers the prospect of a very intriguing righty spot starter. IMHO there are a lot of moves and things to complain about – this is not one of them.

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    5. I’m okay with this. I don’t know what his stuff has come to be like, but at least they didn’t trade away a good prospect for a mediocre pitcher when they could have signed one instead.

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    6. Milton Bradley might be a gamer, but he always walked far too much for Ruben Amaro to become interested.

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    1. Something has to give. Why the heck is Charlie even calling his name when Aumont is out there.

      But Hamels has to be a bigger concern at this point. Today he needed to be lights out and he wasn’t!

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      1. it’s been a nightmarish year for him so far. if he’s 5-2 instead of 1-6, the team’s in the playoff hunt.

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          1. Stop it, that’s ridiculous. Hamels is having mechanical and psychological issues right now – it happens to pitchers from time to time, especially those who can’t overpower hitters. There is nothing to suggest he is turning into Barry Zito. Barry Zito lost 5-7 MPH off his fastball – he went from being a pitcher like Hamels to being a pretty bad AAA pitcher in a year or two, but it was all because he couldn’t throw hard any longer and it’s been a near miracle that he’s revived his career. Hamels’ velocity is as good as ever – there’s nothing wrong with him so please stop the Zito comparisons – it’s apples and organges.

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            1. Additionally, Zito was basically a curve-ball guy with a 12-6 pitch that was unhittable. He did have some heat at the beginning of his career. Hamels, with still good velocity, is not throwing his curve for some reason. One of the analysts thinks the snap maybe uncomfortable for him right now.

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            2. Funny you say that, I was at the Wednesday game and all I could think was “man, the pitch selection is horrible.” Very odd and uncharacteristic.

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    2. Yeah, Durbin should be cut. And if he’s still in the bullpen he should be the last guy to have his name called. Aumont is in now, but he could’ve gone with De Fratus or even Valdes instead. ABD- Anybody but Durbin.

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      1. theres this disconnect in Charlie Manuals head that if youre losing no matter by how much you have to use your less talented relievers. Durbin shouldnt be in the game unless youre down by more than 4 or 5 runs. Down 2 and need a shut down inning you goto Durbin? Come on man.

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        1. Charlie started talking publicly about the lack of good hitters during his 2010 post game press conferences. He’s never stopped, and the brainy Philly media folks and those genius Phans have never listened to Charlie. They’re too busy making fun of how Charlie speaks and implying that he’s stupid.

          Charlie is so stupid he can talk to Yu Darvish without an interpreter. At least theoretically. To actually do that David Montgomery would have to have won an open bidding process for Darvish, and “Monty” won’t take part in such an event. “Monty” likes ‘slots” with really low pay outs. That’s why Rafael Devers is going to become a star third baseman for the Red Sox instead of the Phillies.

          Yes, someone in the Phillies organization is a big problem, but it’s not Charlie. The problem guys first name begins with the letter that comes after “C”.

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          2. you really hate Dave “Money” Montgomery. I agree Charlie is not the whole problem. He just manages to screw up situations that are self explanatory. Amaro put this team together and its failing. If Manuals head is chopped, Amaros should be right beside it.

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            1. Montgomery isn’t really one of the money guys in ownership. Like Giles, he is a front man for the truly wealthy nonmanaging partners. I’m not saying he has as little cashflow as Giles does, but he isn’t Mr. Moneybags. Like Giles, I think most of his wealth is tied up in his share of the Phillies.

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            2. I think you are all confused. The real villain isn’t Bill Giles or Davd “$$$$” Montgomery, it’s Kenny Giles. Kenny (or “KG” as I like to call him – you can just refer to him as “$$$” – not to be confused with Dave Montgomery, whose nickname is “$$$$”), has been orchestrating moves behind the scenes for years. When other prospects were watching tape and working out, KG/$$$ was sending excel spreadsheets to the Phillies upper brass and purported “passive” owners (bypassing Davd “$$$$” Montomery), telling them how they could save money at Williamsport and Lakewood by switching to generic products and by substituting store brand hot dogs for all beef, brand name hot dogs. When spotted sending one of his surrpetitious e-mails to cigar billionaire and Phillies silent owner John Middleton, $$$ quipped “Okay, I know my penurious ways are out of control, but I can’t help myself. I don’t give a damned that I throw 100 miles per hour, but I sure as hell care that the staff at Lakewood thinks it’s a great idea to buy office supplies at Staples, when Costco is right across the street and W.B. Mason is a toll free call away.” When pressed, KG/$$$ admitted that he’s been “advising” the Phillies upper management on cost saving measures for years – since he was in middle school actually – noting that it was he, and not Dave “$$$$” Montgomery or Ruben Amaro, who was behind the curtailed spending by the team in the International player marketplace. In this regard, KG/$$$ commented that “you know, we’ve got some pretty darned good ballplayers in the good old USA, don’t you think? And, crap, have you seen the costs of a round trip plane ticket to Curcao?” With that, and a very bizarre comment about how he was about to head into “money analysis mode,” KG send the reporters packing.

              See, there you have it, it’s been Kenny Giles all along.

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          3. I agree that the problems on the farm are largely due to Montgomery, or at least to the owners’ group he fronts for. I still think that GIles has a lot more influence within that owners group than most posters are willing to believe. He is the guy who put the group together. They owe him. THe value of their investment has skyrocketed and he and his minions have deflected the negative PR from them over the years. Giles owes his spot to being a lapdog for the commish. He needs his Phillies revenue to live on. THe other owners will assure both a yearly payout and playing nice with the commish. Ours aren’t the only owners who behave like that. I think Monty does lie more than most about how eager he and the other owners are to bust the salary cap in order to win. This past winter put the lie to that statement.

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            1. I told you on here many times. and was ripped that they are cheap. well they. ignored the international market. play hard ball with the draft.With the excuse that they were staying within the commissioner budject, the yakees brewers redsox, and many others didn’t listen,but it was a way to keep spending down, and imo is solely on the shoulders of giles, he is the one who directed this teams spending. Believe what you want. Not to try to sign a outfielder. over the slop they got , was a disgrace. screw the tax,they have a ton of money,and a new tv deal coming in that will make them. even richer.But today driving down tenth street. I saw how empty that stadium was, I live right down the street and you never seen empty seats, like you do now. and they deserve to be called out for this team. and the gm and coach have to go.

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            2. I have never doubted or criticized you for saying that the Phillies have taken an excessively cheap approach to the draft and to signing international talent. They are slavish adherents to Selig’s spending ‘recommendations’ and since the JD Drew debacle, I don’t think they have ever spent a primo draft pick on a guy they weren’t 100% certain would sign for slot or less. The international budget has been a joke. They blew out like 5 years’ worth of international spending on two Koreans that nobody had heard of and then when the guys landed stateside one of the Phillies brass commented that one of them didn’t even look like the player they thought they had signed. They went from that blowout year to super cheap, and nothing of significance before or since in Asia. The problem with not having replacement players ready to help the big Phillies is totally self-inflicted by top management.

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            3. Really you want to cite the Brewers? How about those Yankees let’s take a look at their 25 man roster and name how many of those are the result of big spending in the International drafts…

              Let’s do the same for the Red Sox? Am I mistaken or didn’t they do a huge salary dump last year (Dodgers maybe we should talk about their spending and how that’s working out) then turn around and sign a bunch of guys on the cheap. You should also do some research on how the Red Sox passed on Cano because he wanted $250,000 and then see what the Yankee’s ended up paying for him…

              Let’s take a look at the Rays ownership and do some digging on how much Steinberg and Silverman (Goldman Sachs ripped off more Americans to the tune of 1.3 Trillion) are worth and relative to that net worth who is the cheaper ownership group…

              It’s also lazy on your part that you don’t mention who the teams are that do spend the most in the draft have either A. Done so because they suck so bad and get money from the other clubs that spend on their MLB product or B) Really suck at building a franchise because they haven’t won a WS in I don’t know how long.

              When you make the current state of the Phillies about the ownership group being cheap you have 0 credibility. OTOH if you make it about them not putting the right baseball people in place you’ll have a better argument.

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            4. DMARs…Yankees big Internationsal spending…I will name one….one tops them all…Ribinson Cano. Oh, then there is a few pitchers…one being a guy named Nova and another named Mariano Rivera……no biggies! Then there is Nunez. None of them are impact players! (tic)

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            5. LOL Cano signed for $150K Nova $80K and Rivera signed in 1990 for a whopping $3,000 those are some great examples of breaking the bank. WTG

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            7. Actually a lot of LA scouting is finding the player and building a relationship with them. Not part of these but Profar and the Rangers comes up a lot, the Rangers were talking with him since he was 14 before signing him at 16.

              Not that he has reached the heights of anyone mentioned, but where were all the other teams waiting to sign Maikel Franco for more than the Phillies 100k. In general if the bonus is under 250k it should get scouting and professional development, not the ability to throw money around

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            8. You continue to change the topic of discussion. Nobody has said that the Phillies major league salary budget is cheap. Their spending on the draft and international has inarguably been cheap, as in bottom 5 in all of baseball. That is very, very cheap. Now, you could convincingly argue that this is not penury but rather slavish devotion to Selig’s battle against amateur bonuses, but the result is the same and the Phillies have suffered for it. This is not on the baseball people. It is on ownership. If one wishes to argue that the Phillies should have busted through the luxury cap limit to field a stronger team this year, and I have not, then that too is on ownership. Again, probably more slavish devotion to Selig, but the ownership does want to turn a profit. Monty’s comments to the contrary are commonly referred to as lies.

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            10. The Top 5 from 2007-2011:
              Pirates
              Nationals
              Kansas City
              Boston
              Baltimore

              The only one of those where it is not driven mostly by high picks is Boston. The Phillies are 26th, which is about where there average draft position was when they had first round picks.

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    1. Great news! At #16, I would like the Phillies to take one of them. If not one of the 3 prep catchers, the SS Crawford.

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      1. I would go along with this too. Denney or Crawford.

        I like Drew Ward also. Would be great if he could make it to the 2nd pick, but with Texas having two 1st round picks that’s impossible isn’t it?

        The guys doing the picking for the Rangers aren’t wearing panties.

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  23. Three relief pitchers who take turns ruining games and you sign Zambrano. Cholly loves a serene
    club house . Good luck with that.

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    1. Maybe RAJ feels the majority of the Phillies are too laid back/complacent and adding a fiery personality could help. It is a minor league signing which costs us nothing so this is a possible low risk/high payoff deal. Lastly, if he makes the Phillies they can use him as a RH pinch hitter when he does not pitch.

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  24. SBNation on Return on a Chase Utley Deal:
    ‘And if it is trade, then who makes the most sense, or offers a reward big enough to say goodbye to Chase “WFC” Utley? Yordano Ventura, the low-floor but variable-ceiling RHP? Michael Choice, the expendable but talented outfielder? Grant Green or Jonathan Schoop, ostensible Utley stand-ins, though by no means Utley replacements? Or Eduardo Rodriguez, a projectable lefty, who could likely be had without too much concession from a monetary standpoint?’

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    1. I wouldn’t trade Utley for every name mentioned there in a package.

      There are a lot of empty seats now. The whole top deck will be empty on Fireworks Night if Utley isn’t here next year.

      Better sign Shin-Soo Choo to play CF. The Thirty Years War against Scott Boras has to end.

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      1. I doubt Choo would hold up to a full year of CF this year (Baseball Reference already has him costing the Red .7 wins with his defense, weighing down his offensive performance). If you want him in RF that is a different story and one that certainly has merit though it will cost with draft pick and contract (as would any top free agent).
        Personally I would trade Utley for Choice. Right now Choice is a CF with considerable power (and not unreasonable strikeout rates and a decent walk rate) who probably goes to LF in a few years (arm is below average), but he clearly fills a need for the major league club and is better than any draft compensation. I am not sure that Oakland does that deal though. The rest of those names have very low ceilings or major questions.

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  25. I watched the Stephen King inspired movie “Thinner” last night. A fat lawyer kills an old Gypsy’s daughter and the Gypsy puts a curse on him by touching his face and saying “Thinner” and then the lawyer begins to waste away while eating 15,000 calories a day.

    I think an old Gypsy touched Ruben Amaro’s face and said “Low OBP”. Tune in this weekend and watch the Phillies’ hitters OBP sink lower.

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      1. Just to expand on this:

        2006 First Round.

        #1 Luke Hochevar College guy playing independent ball trying to get more money.
        #2 Greg Reynolds Stanford (Former Phillies pick out of high school who David Montgomery wouldn’t pay).
        #4 Brad Lincoln University of Houston (might as well have drafted Abe)
        #5 Brandon Morrow University of Berkley
        #6 Andrew Miller University North Carolina Chapel Hill
        ==================================
        Number Seven……..CLAYTON KERSHAW out of a Texas high school.

        Kershaw was a known guy clocked at 95 MPH with his fastball. Those college guys were all “more advanced” and “safe”. Everybody wearing panties at the draft table took a college guy.

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