Due to the developmental differences between hitters and pitchers many more pitchers blossom in college baseball. This means that there is a depth of pitching available in the draft that is not greatly inferior talent wise to the high school pitching available. In the later rounds the quantity of good college pitching decreases but in the first two rounds there are plenty of college arms that have legitimate major league starting pitches.
Off the Board:
Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray, Braden Shipley – Grey and Appel are the consensus #1 and #2 picks in the draft, both offering arsenals of at least #2 starters and both should get there within a year. Shipley is the 3rd best college pitcher in the draft and should be off the board not long after the Top 5 picks.
Should be off the Board or will be a hard sign:
Sean Manaea (Indiana State) – Manaea a left hander came into the year in the conversation for the first overall pick, but has struggled over the year. The fastball is down to the hi-80s after touching 96 last summer, but he also has a breaking ball and changeup that profile as average to plus. Manaea is a Boras client who could go back to school if he doesn’t like where he is picked.
Ryne Stanek (Arkansas) – Stanek has a plus to plus plus fastball as well as a pair of breaking balls that are at least average going forward. The changeup is far behind and concerns that he might be a reliever long term might drop him. Stanek will likely need to be compensated like a Top 15 pick but he won’t be unsignable if he falls.
1st Round
Alex Gonzalez (Oral Roberts) – RHP – Gonzalez has a 4 pitch mix with a plus cutter has Gonzalez moving up boards. He profiles as more of a #3 on the major league level.
Chris Anderson (Jacksonville) – RHP – A plus fastball touching 96 and a plus slider to go with an average changeup. Anderson has been falling due to struggles on the mound, possibly due to overwork, but it could be a dominating package if put together.
Marco Gonzalez (Gonzaga) – LHP – Lacks the upside of the other pitchers, his fastball is average sitting mostly 89-91 to go with an average curveball and a true plus changeup. He could be in the majors by the end of the 2013 but he might only top out as a #4 starter.
Ryan Eades (LSU) – RHP – Eades as dropped some due to some struggles but it is an average to plus fastball with an average changeup and breaking ball that could be plus with work. There is still some projection left but Eades has been very inconsistent at times.
Aaron Blair (Marshall) – RHP – A power arm that can touch 96 with a breaking ball and changeup that can profile as above average with some overall projection left. He could use consistency and work.
Andrew Thurman (UC Irvine) – RHP – A four pitch mix with average to slightly above on all of the pitches. He profiles as a #3 starter with some room for more projection.
Trevor Williams (Arizona State) – RHP – The fastball sits more average but can touch plus, but he adds a plus changeup and a slider that shows average potential. His stats have been down this year and he is a #4 starter unless the breaking ball really progresses.
2nd Round
Bobby Wahl (Ole Miss) – RHP – Plus fastball and flashes a plus breaking ball and some feel for a changeup. Wahl has had big command problems that has some scouts thinking his future is in the bullpen.
Tom Windle (Minnesota) – LHP – Windle has an average fastball and a promising changeup but the breaking ball is fringy. There isn’t a lot of projection left but he has good command and feel for pitching.
Kevin Ziomek (Vanderbilt) – LHP – Ziomek has put up good stats in college but it is an average fastball and breaking ball, with no changeup. His delivery gives scouts pause and his likely headed to the bullpen long term.
Andrew Mitchell (TCU) – Mitchell has a plus fastball and plus changeup but lacks a good breaking ball. Could be dominant out of the bullpen if the third pitch doesn’t develop.
Jason Hursh (Oklahoma St.) – RHP – Hursh has a true plus fastball but the secondary stuff are lacking consistency right now. If the secondary stuff can get to average he could move quickly as a #3/#4 starter.
Alex Balog (San Francisco) – RHP – Balog has an average to above three pitch mix from a good frame. It isn’t overpowering right now but there is some projection left.
Jonathan Crawford (Florida) – RHP – Crawford as a plus plus fastball but the secondary pitches just show promise at this point. He could go late first round to a team that like arm strength.
Corey Knebel (Texas) – RHP – Knebel has the stuff to be a very good starter with plus fastball and curve to go with a developing changeup. The problem is that he is currently the closer for Texas and a team will have to trust that he will keep the stuff in longer outings.
Summary:
The college pitching crop isn’t terrible in the first round, but it does not fall well for the Phillies if they want to go that route. There is a decent gap from Stanek and Manaea to the next tier of pitchers so if they are both off the board it would be reach for the Phillies to take on of the next guys. The second round has some interesting arms and the Phillies should have plenty to choose from if they want to go that route. Though given the pitching depth in the organization they might be better off taking a higher upside high school arm instead. Former Phillies pick Scott Frazier seems destined for the late 3rd-4th round where he will likely get less than he was offered by the Phillies 3 years ago.
Phuture Phillies 
The 2nd round of potential HS arms available looks much better than this with possible Brentz, Danish, Salazar, etc.
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Since it has become a foregone conclusion that Shipley will be picked before #16, the only other college pitcher I like that early is Chris Anderson. I don’t want any part of Ryne Stanek after watching him. He looks like future arm problems written all over him, with the ‘inverted w’ style of throwing, plus they are projecting him as a reliever because he doesn’t have the pitches to be a starter.
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I dont think its a conclusion Shipley goes before 16… I mean its probable but I wouldnt write it off. Id assume Stanek would be gone on stuff alone, even if its not what it was in 2012
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I’ve seen Bobby Wahl going within the top 10 earlier in the season. Why the drop off?
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If I were picking at #4 for the Twins I would take Trey Ball, unless he was gone. Then I would take Kohl Stewart. I wouldn’t take Braden Shipley before the 3rd round and only if my farm was barren of pitching at the high levels. Shipley has no ceiling.
The Phillies need dangerous bats. The Phillies need a farm director who isn’t scared to use the first four picks on 17 year old position players. The Phillies once had a farm director like that. He drafted 17 year old Jimmy Rollins..
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If I am the Twins I take Stewart or Ball. I just don’t see Shipley getting passed Colorado who needs pitching and Shipley offers upside and proximity that is not available elsewhere.
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Shipley’s ceiling is Mike Leake. How would Leake do at Coor’s Field?
I’d take Phil Bickford before Shipley, but at #3 I’m taking a bat. The Rockies have always needed more bats. Even in the pre-humidor days. Look at those lineups and the appalling holes they had. They paid for those holes big-time when they went on the road and probably lost a couple at home as well.
Until you have eight studs in your lineup you need more bats.
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I think the Phillies would be fools to waste their first round draft pick on anything up a starting pitcher. We select someone like Chris Anderson, Hunter Harvey, or god willing Branden Shipley, they will hopefully be ready to make an impact as Cliff Lee’s contract is coming to an end. World Series is won on pitching. And outside of Biddle, we kind of lack the projected star power. So that leaves us sigining overrated picthers to ballooning contracts. Then we get into the same mess we always do.
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The 1985 Kansas City Royals were the last team that won a World Series with pitching.
When’s the last time you washed that ugly green and silver jersey you’re wearing?
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Wait didnt the giants win 2 of the last 3 World Series with pitching?
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I thought I saw Pablo Sandoval have a three HR game against Verlander and the Tigers.
Was that Tim Lincecum who hit the three bombs?
Maybe the Iggles were playing that day and you missed the game?
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wow, that’s some of the dumbest stuff I’ve ever read. The Tigers scored 6 total runs in the entire series. The Giants won two games 2-0. game four was 4-3. If you win three world series games and score on 7 runs, that’s winning with pitching. and in 2010, Texas was shutout twice and in one game scored 1 run. winning with pitching.
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2012 NLDS
Game 1
Reds 5 Giants 2
Game 2
Reds 9 Giants 0
Game 3
Giants 2 Reds 1
Game 4
Giants 8 Reds 3
Game 5
Giants 6 Reds 4
Looks like one pitching game out of five to me, but I guess that’s just my perception.
Every pitch that leaves the park is a “mistake” right? If pitchers don’t make a mistake it’s a perfect game?
De Fratus struck out Paul Goldschmidt with a 92 MPH fastball right over the plate yesterday. So De Frautus has an unhittable fastball?
Let me know when you figure it out.
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People always say pitching and defense wins world series. Once you get to the playoffs I think it’s luck and bullpens that win world series.
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It is luck, and a good bullpen but a lot is won on the backs of the starting picthers. They’re the ones who need to shut down an offense for 6+ innings. That being said I think we really need to look for someone with frontline potential. Anderson looks good but his coach has been riding his but too hard. I think he threw 144 pitches in a complete game not too long ago.
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I am always afraid of college pitchers. Too many of them have crazy workloads especially when you factor in league championships and then NCAA tournament and pitching on short rest with high pitch counts.
Unless a team has a chance to take one of the top 2 or 3 college SP’s (who usually go within the first 8 or 9 picks) you’re better off taking a chance on a HS pitcher if you’re going pitching.
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