So You Want a College Hitter

2013 Draft

Now that we are into May it is time to look at specific players and groups of players.  We are going to kick off this series with the thinnest position which is college hitters.  For the most part this is going to stick to players available for the 1st and 2nd round pick.  I don’t have the information base nor time to do a full breakdown of later picks so those will be limited to mostly rumors of the Phillies being connected to a certain player.  Additionally the MLB draft can be extremely unpredictable since teams don’t have “needs” to fill and it is much better to do predictions in the moment.

1st Round:

DJ Peterson (1B/3B) – New Meixco – Peterson is one of the best pure college bats in the draft showing good power and contact abilities.  The problem is that he is likely heading to first base long term where the bat is very good but not as impactful.

Hunter Renfroe (RF) – Mississippi St. – Renfroe has raw tools seldom seen in a college player.  It is plus tools across the board and a likely RF profile.  The downside is he hadn’t done much before midway through this college season.

Austin Wilson (RF) – Stanford – Another big tools college RF bat with a good hit tool and power potential.  The biggest knock against Wilson is the stereotypical “Standford” swing which limits the raw power of batters as well as an injury that held him out of games this spring.  The overall profile has a ceiling of above average regular.

Phillip Ervin (RF/CF) – Samford – Ervin has become to really drop down draft boards lately.  He is much smaller than the other OFs on this list though as well as their power.  Despite very good speed there is a concern that he is destined for RF in pro-ball.  The team that takes him early will believe he is a CF otherwise he may fall to the 2nd round.

Aaron Judge (RF) – Fresno State – A giant of a man who would tie the record for the largest OF in history if he makes the majors.  There is tons of raw power though in games it is more just hard contact.  He is a surprisingly good athlete but the huge strike zone could leave him vulnerable to good pitching on the next level.

2nd Round

Tim Anderson (SS/CF) – East Central CC – Anderson might be the rare college SS who can stick at the position.  There are interesting tools and great athleticism but big questions about the track record and hit tool.

Eric Jagielo (3B) – Notre Dame – A good college bat with some good power that should be able to stick at third.  The power is likely the only plus tool but polished college bats don’t drop far.

Michael Lorenzen (CF) – Cal State Fullerton – A toolsy CF who has not put up the numbers in college.  It is average to plus tools across the board.  He has touched 100mph in relief so a team may take him as a pitcher.

Brian Ragira (1B/LF) – Stanford – A better hitter then Wilson but he is likely limited to first or left field.  There is huge raw power but the Stanford swing doesn’t let it play in games.  To take him this high you have to believe that you can tap into the raw ability.

Chad Pinder (3B) – Virginia Tech – Should stick at the position with a good hit tool.  The power is all project right now and needs to get there to make him a regular at the hot corner.

Andrew Knapp (C) – Cal – Average tools across the board which is good enough if you can stick behind the plate.

Hunter Dozier (SS) – Stephen F. Austin – A college shortstop Dozier has been crushing the ball all season and could end up in the first round if a team thinks he can stay up the middle.

Off the Board:

Kris Bryant and Colin Moran – Both are close to locks for Top 10 picks.  If either falls it will likely be Moran if teams feel he cannot handle third base in pro-ball and is destined for a corner OF spot or 1B.  At first, Moran is not necessarily best player available, if you think he can play third or RF then he is definitely well worth taking as the most advanced college hitter in the draft.

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

60 thoughts on “So You Want a College Hitter”

  1. I keep seeing Moran’s name as a lock top 10 pick, but he hasn’t put up greay numbers and he is suspect as a 3rd baseman. I’m not sure I would be comfortable with him at even #16.
    I’d take Phillip Ervin and maybe Hunter Renfroe, but otherwise I’m not high on the College hitters.

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    1. ive seen enough of Ervin to not touch him with a 10 foot ball in the first 3 rounds.

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          3. An estimated 55 ceiling is not a reason to stay away from Ervin. Biddle, Morgan and Franco all have 55 ceilings placed on their upside.

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  2. big upside for A.Wilson when he gets in pro ball everyday RF’er for next 10 years

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  4. Don’t know about the guys mentioned. Seems like none have great assurance of a good return on investment.

    Challenge appears to be between (for need) a good outfielder with right-handed power OR a high school pitcher. To me, none of those mentioned seems to come with a high enough rating to have the great likelihood to become a “quick” success that a college pick in the first round should be.

    All this from a poster who wished to find a quality right-handed college slugging OFer at our #16 pick in the first round. Who believes that one of the aforementioned meets the criteria outlined,..?

    Unless such a college outfielder enhances his standing during the next few weeks close to draft day, maybe they should stick with a HS pitcher.

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    1. yes Art…..I do prefer a righ-handed power hitting OF. But since our farm system is bubbly over with such right-handed hitting power OFers, maybe my wish is a bit over-zealous!

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    2. “Seems like none have great assurance of a good return on investment.”

      True, but that’s generally true of any mid first round pick. Which is why the extent to which people value the pick somewhat baffles me. Now, I can understand the argument that, with the current state of the team, keeping the pick was a better move than signing a top FA, but .255/.364/.431 (even including a poor start to the season) would look pretty good in the team’s outfield right now, wouldn’t it?

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      1. Larry, keep up the good work promoting me! Maybe a trade can be worked out to move me back to the East Coast some time.

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      2. While no draft pick is a guaranteed success, even the top pick in the draft, it is certainly true that the earlier your first draft pick is, the higher the chance of getting an impact major leaguer. With the new draft system, this is especially true and your flexibility in drafting is also increased, because having a mid-first round pick vs not having a first round pick gives you a lot more $ to spend in the draft. The last time we had a first round pick was 2010 and we netted Biddle. Quite good. The last time we had a pick as good as this one, we netted Utley at #15. Our scouts will identify al of the college and HS kids whom they think can be impact players. A lot more of them will still be available at 16 than at 40. If the Phillies had surrendered their first rounder to sign a FA, we still wouldn’t be a strong team for this season.

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        2. As I said, there are arguments both ways. The counter arguments is that, over the transition period, Swisher could really have helped ease the way. There’s a real difference (in terms of attendance, and to a lesser extent, building winning habits, which DOES matter for younger players) between a team winning (say) 84 games a year and a team winning (say) 80 games a year.

          On top of that, consider that there are no internal options for the second corner OF slot for years to come (unless Ruf comes through; I still don’t buy the defense, despite some positive reports). One could, I suppose, argue that the team should just live with that. But it won’t. Which means a possible worse solution than 3 or 4 years of Swisher (and the loss of a draft pick). Amaro could easily spend more (in terms of prospects) for less (see, e.g., Pence). Or get a lesser FA, also at the cost of a (possibly higher) pick.

          And it isn’t as if this pick is a once in decade event. They’ll likely be picking around there for another 3 years.

          Finally, not that I need to tell you this, but “Biddle and Utley” for a mid first round pick represent (in the first case) about a one in ten chance, and (in the second case) about a one in one hundred chance. It’s not that such picks don’t have value, they just don’t have the value that most people around here place on them. Most likely the pick will never be a position regular or starting pitcher.

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          1. Swisher’s the one that stings. I’m with you on that one. He bridges the gap to the Greene/Cozens “era”, if one of those two ever materializes as a corner OF.

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            1. Neither of these guys have yet provided a shred of support for the notion of a Greene/Cozens era. It may happen, but I wouldn’t go out of my way to plan for it yet. It is not a favorable thing that Cozens is still in XST and Greene is striking out a ton and not hitting HR. Greene is not going to have the normal growth curve for his power as he ages, because he is already so big and fully filled out. There won’t be more muscle as there is with just about every other one of our young OF.

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            2. Clearly we’re prepping for an Altherr/Dugan era anyway.

              But seriously, to pick out just one part of your post, I don’t think it’s an “unfavorable” thing that Cozens is in XST either. There wasn’t really anything to suggest he was particularly advanced for a HS bat. I never really got all the conjecture about him starting in Lakewood. As I type this, he’s still only 18.

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            3. A lot of HS hitters aren’t in full-season A ball to start their first full year in professional ball, but most of the guys you build a team around are. Lieberthal was. Rolen was. Rollins was. Of guys we traded recently, Singleton and D’Arnaud were. Domonic Brown did not advance that fast.

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            4. Yeah, I wasn’t suggesting the Greene/Cozens “era” was anything but a notion – it would time out to about 4 years from now. They were two high draft picks that the team would like to see make it, though we know neither of those guys are sure things. If one of them becomes a big league average regular at a corner OF spot, that would be very nice. I do agree with Handzus that Cozens in XST and going to Williamsport is not a big deal. As for the list of guys you mention – except maybe Singleton, those guys were much less of a defensive question mark than Cozens, which probably helped them move a little quicker as well.

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  5. I’d be pretty happy with either Renfroe or Wilson in the 1st round. both have higher ceilings than usual for college players and their demerits (short track record and injury history respectively) could signal they are undervalued. Of course those demerits also leave them at a greater bust chance but i’d take the chance and go after players who can be impact players

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  6. My preference is Phil Ervin, though he is 5’10”, 210 lbs….he is strong with speed and has pitched a few innings this year, so he has an arm. Physically, he probably images at as a Marlon Bryd/Vernon Wells/Kirby Puckett type. Still can see him in CF.
    From the Samford website: ‘Returns as the starter in center field (in 2013) . . . was named the MVP of the prestigious Cape Cod League over the summer . . . was named preseason All-American and preseason SoCon Player of the Year. 2012 (Sophomore): Started all 64 games in center field . . . named first team All-SoCon by the league’s coaches and second team by the media . . . finished third on the team with a .327 batting average . . . led the team in doubled with 18, and finished third in both home runs with 10 and RBI with 52 ‘

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    1. In video, Phillip Ervin looks like Yoenis Cespedes or the young Marlon Byrd. If the guy led the cape cod league in HRs, he has wood bat power, so it doesn’t matter how tall he is.

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      1. Agree……hope Art D reads your summation. Evidently my wish for a right-hand hitting power guy irks him.

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    2. From yesterdays Callis BA Chat:
      Steve (Atlanta): What is the ceiling of Phil Ervin? Jim Callis: Was very impressed by his performance on the Cape last summer. He’s athletic, a good bet to hit, ceiling is all-star outfielder. Could see him going a few picks higher than I had him on the initial first-round projection.

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  7. well unless the Phillies fire amaro and the scouting staff, our first round pick will be,

    Michael Lorenzen (CF) – Cal State Fullerton – A toolsy CF who has not put up the numbers in college. It is average to plus tools across the board. He has touched 100mph in relief so a team may take him as a pitcher.

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    2. I would take a flyer on the arm with one of the third round picks. It isn’t an Amaro or Phillies 1st round pick. There is always a list of high school OFs with the same tools but 3 years younger

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      1. Matt, what is meant by the “Stanford Swing”? I saw Austin Wilson last week on cable and had a good night batting against Williams of Arizona State.

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        1. The Standford swing has almost no upward plane to it. It is a pure line drive swing that they teach to all of their hitters regardless of the type of player. So a guy like Wilson has lots of raw power but the path of his swing prevents that from turning into homeruns. Some guys like Mayberry and Taylor get over it, others never are able to use the power inherent in their swing. (it is very similar to why Ben Revere hits ground balls despite having a lot of strength, and it is similar to what Gillies uses in games vs the power stroke he has in BP)

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          4. I know he’s on the older side, but I’d still love for the Phillies to re-acquire Michael Taylor. Even though he’s been stuck at AAA for a long time now, he’s continued to improve, as odd as that seems. Over the long haul, I’d still rather have him than Mayberry, because I think there’s still a chance that Taylor could develop into an acceptable role player or even a starter. The A’s probably don’t need him, so it’s not impossible that this could happen, assuming the Phillies remain interested

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            1. catch…draft Austin Wilson, trade for Michael Taylor, and keep John Mayberry Jr….and we can have a full Cardinal outfield. Ruben would like that.

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    3. Would not bet on it as a first round pick and they will go with a more polished College talent.

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  8. BA just came out with their first mock draft and has the Phils taking JP Crawford who is a HS SS.

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    1. I could live with that. From the same town as D’Arnaud and Watson. I’ve got my eye on Jonathan Denney though.

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  9. Matt most every thing that I have read on draft, mention the Phillies like to take toolsy players. like its there trademark.So my comment is that unless we change our player personal people and gm. why would it change???

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    1. They take toolsy high school players, though in general they do look for a carrying tool (a tool that is a plus major league tool that can make a player a regular or above on its own). For the most part their college picks have been guys who have been solid but have under performed their tools set (Morgan, Wright, Martinez, Giles, Serritella, Perkins, Brady, Milner, Garner).

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      1. Matt…you need to evaluate college hitters taken in the first round in the last decade or so and see how they panned out. Not college hitters taken in the other rounds.

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        1. When we are talking about the Phillies draft philosophy these are the guys that matter (Savery is another guy to add to the list)

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          1. Savery was drafted as a pitcher, Utley is the only first round college hitter the Phillies have taken in the last ten years….and how has that worked out?

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            1. What I don’t get is why we stick with the toolshed OF approach?
              a) 2 of our 3 “core” hitters (Rollins, Utley and Howard)” were college draftees. The other was neither a toolshed guy nor an OF right? (Ok maybe he was toolsy but not an OFer).

              None of these toolshed OF guys have made an MLB impact for us (unless you consider their tarde bait value..).

              Now Hamels was a HS pitcher so maybe we should stay with HS arms or M-Inf’ers and college hitters.

              It just seems very illogical no?

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            2. Are you sure Jimmy Rollins was college draftee? I thought he was a High School draftee.

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            3. Jimmy Rollins was a ‘toolsy’, HS, 2nd round pick. But of course that didn’t work out.

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            4. “two of three,” “other guy.”

              Not wholly agreeing with his conclusion, though. You want star upside for a position player and aren’t drafting in the top ten, you don’t draft a college kid normally. There are obvious exceptions. But not so much where the Phillies have been drafting lately (Utley was picked at 15 in the first round, and his rise to stardom in any event atypical. Howard being the even more obvious exception.)

              That said, I would favor a more polished HS kid approach for first and second rounders. Wait till the third round and later for the tool sheds.

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            5. Rollins was a 2nd round pick out of high school and one of the poster boys of the tools draft strategy. Floyd and Drabek were high school guys and while they have failed due to injuries can’t you say that the same thing happened to Savery, but both of them had enough value to trade. not that they were drafted by the Phillies but Werth, Victorino, and Halladay were all high school picks. Lee was a college pitcher, which wouldn’t be a bad thing, but we will get to that later.

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  10. FWIW, last month Jim Callis listed 24 players as ‘true’ 1st round picks. College hitters, Aaron Judge, Austin Wilson and Mike Lorenzen didn’t make the cut of ‘true’ 1st round picks.

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    1. Will get him eventually, most likely limited to first base, possibly LF. Best pure high school hitter. with good contact and power, at first he is a plus defender. The description essentially reads like Jonathan Singleton with more power and more unknowns about the patience and approach (but then again they Singleton had unknown skills there when drafted). Plus plus arm but that may be limited at first.

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      1. Why wouldn’t a plus defender at first with a plus plus arm not be able to play 3B? How much more ground must a 3B legitimately cover more than a 1B?

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        1. At the start of the season, there was talk of Dominic Smith playing some games in RF. If he is a decent athlete, with a plus plus pitchers arm, I don’t see why he can’t be taught RF, at age 18.

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  13. As far as college hitters I’d be OK with Bryant, Moran, Peterson, Renfroe or Judge at 16 (in that order). Not that excited about Ervin, do not want Wilson. I kinda like Daniel Palka (Georgia Tech) in the 2nd round as well but I’d be stunned if we took college hitters 1-2.

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    1. Interesting that you would want Daniel Palka with the 2nd round pick (53rd overall). I haven’t seen him ranked in the top 100 players. The Phillies could probably get him in the 5th round.

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  15. 2010 draft in round 20. he wanted 18 dollars to sign we offered 11.50. so he went to college

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