The topic of much of the season to this point is where does this team go from here. Most of it centers around the lack of stars in the minor league system. Not all players can be stars because it takes a level of natural ability already present to be able to reach such lofty status. Rather than just list off guys I thought I would do this in the style of creating a team of the player with the most star potential at each position on the field. This is a team to dream on, not a team to count on, but it is an intriguing exercise nonetheless.
Catcher – Gabriel Lino
Big raw power and big arm, but the hit tool and defensive fundamentals are flawed. Additionally there are makeup questions with Lino and he is very far away from his ceiling with plenty to go wrong.
First Base – Dylan Cozens
A bit of a cheat here as he is still in RF, but I think his long term home is first base (he could still make it to the majors in the OF). Cozens is a gigantic human being with power to match, he has some clue of what he is doing at the plate and plenty of athleticism right now. He is only 18 years old and a bit stiff so there are question about how he will hold up long term. His position won’t matter if he hits though.
Second Base – Andrew Pullin
Pullin doesn’t have star level tools and is a stretch to make this list. He does a lot of things right and was a good makeup guy coming into the draft. If Pullin can translate the power and hit ability of his funky swing to pros and learn the position defensively he certainly is on the right path.
Shortstop – Roman Quinn
Everyone knows who Quinn is at this point. Has surprising pop but can the hit tool let it and the speed play. Plus all of the defensive questions.
Third Base – Maikel Franco
Franco is a beast, but will need to cut down on his free swinging enough to bump up the walk rate, there might also be more than plus power there.
Outfield –
Aaron Altherr – Tools everywhere, and showing enough hit tool to give them in game utility. If he can play an above average CF and show the plus power then he is a GUY regardless of the hit tool. If the defense is lacking or he has to go to a corner the hit tool needs to really step up and the strikeout rate has to drop.
Carlos Tocci – Great instincts at the plate and in the field, plus to plus plus speed, plus arm, and great CF defense without the body to do anything at the plate. Dream about him putting on muscle.
Jose Pujols – Stanton raw power comps at age 17 and not much else is the definition of a dream.
Pitchers –
Jesse Biddle – Not a star right now but if he finds a touch more velocity and the changeup become a true plus pitch, it might happen.
Shane Watson – Take everything said about Biddle and switch to the right side. Curveball is the key pitch, everything else needs to step it up.
Mitch Gueller – Potential 70 fastball, 60 breaking ball, 60 changeup and a projectable workhorse frame. The problem is he is really raw and it is going to take some time to get everything working right.
Franklyn Vargas – Big lefty with a plus to plus plus fastball from the left handed side and a slider with good promise. The changeup is almost non-existent and the ability to find the plate is only slightly better than that. He is only 18 years old so there is plenty of time.
Austin Wright – I have stated multiple times that I think Wright is a reliever long term and I still stand by that. Regardless of his injury, lack of changeup, and inconsistent command there are not many pitchers with his fastball on that kind of frame from the left handed side. Velocity is not the end all of pitching but it makes things a lot easier.
There is not much to take away from this except that every time you panic about the system remember that there are guys to dream on still there and while they may be eons away and probably will all fail to hit their ceilings, at this moment in time they have the chance to be stars.
Phuture Phillies 
Austin Wright over Adam Morgan?
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All on fastball, Morgan is far and away the better prospect and pitcher. Morgan would need more velocity or impeccable command to even have star upside. The body is already kind of maxed out for Morgan as well (he is not a large guy when it comes to Phillies pitchers). Essentially Morgan would have to become Cliff Lee and Lee is one of the most unique pitchers in the major leagues right now.
I had Morgan #2 and Wright #18 on my Top 30 if that gives better context to what I think of them as prospects.
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Giles is the pitcher I would have added instead of Wright if we are emphasizing raw stuff. I also get the impression that Wright is more about velocity than variety of stuff. His secondary pitches are only OK.
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It is really hard to be a star level reliever (though I considered him and if I had done a dedicated relief spot it would have been him). Wright’s curveball actually profiles as plus down the road.
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I’m on the Cesar bandwagon (I think) but then every time I jump on a bw the wheels come off. Maikel no doubt, Biddle no doubt. Those would be my only three at the moment. I can see potential for others but until they reach AA on or ahead of schedule and produce at a high level there I would hold off on the star level conversation.
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If the reports from last year about Morgan’s fastball touching 95 are accurate, and if he’s still doing it, that would be enough velocity to get on this list, imo. I also would have thought about putting Martin on it. And Grullon over Lino at C. Otherwise, no argument.
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Thought about both Martin and Grullon for a while. Martin and Wright were the last two spots and I went with the LHP (it may be writing about the Phillies that did this to me, but I tend to give ties to the LHP). Grullon I need to see something from the hit tool and I would like to see how the arm really is vs professional baserunners, he is probably “safer” than Lino at this point though do to the defensive profile
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Lino over Joesph?
Joseph a long shot for stardom also, but it seems to me they actually have similar tools and weaknesses, with Joseph (a) having better make-up, (b) several levels more advanced and only 2 years older. I realize that neither a and b necessarily go to ceiling, but I guess I don’t quite qet why you think Lino’s ceiling is higher in the first place.
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How about Keive Rojas and Zack Green if they put it all together.
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Honestly if you’re going to be cute and ‘reach’ for a pick at catcher go for Deivy Grullon the 16 year old signing last summer. Gabriel Lino was touted for his defense and stil was top 3 in the entire SALLY league in both passed balls and errors at catcher. Offensively he’s living off 80 AB’s in rookie ball. Is there some power there? Sure. But there is with Valle and Joseph as well.
Heck he couldn’t even make Lakewood’s roster this year and is in XST and likely pegged for Williamsport.
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All low-A stats:
Sebastian Valle (age 19) – .253/.296/.427 5.6% BB rate, 20.8% K rate
Tommy Joseph (age 18) – .236/.290/.401 5.5% BB rate, 24.5% K rate
Gabriel Lino (age 18) – .222/.293/.352 8% BB rate, 25.7% K rate
He showed less power and more walk ability, but showed plenty of power in the GCL. I get the argument for Grullon, but Lino has the better raw tools (and that is what they are, completely raw and not really useful right now)
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And all 3 of these guys have taken a big step backwards this season, so your point is?
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Your reading comprehension isn’t very good now is it?
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There are some guys here who could be quite good, as in significantly above average major league regulars if their development breaks right and we don’t need to wear solid rose glasses to see that (Biddle, Watson, Franco, Altherr, Tocci, Pujols) and that is a lot of favorable projection to get even those guys to be occassional all stars. The other guys on the list? That seems a desperation, how can we cheer ourselves with this well-below average farm, the glass is 1/8 full — hooray! meh exercise.
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I meant to include Quinn and Morgan as guys who can be stretch projected high enough to be on this list.
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Thank you for this. There’s a lot of negative around our future and it is most likely very warranted, but we’re fans and need something to hold out hope for.
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Fun exercise:
What do you think the probability of reaching their potential is – for each prospect?
Odds that one, two, or even three of the listed prospects reach their potential?
My guess is that one of the pitchers and one of the hitters reach their full potential (as outlined above by Matt).
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I’d love to see a lineup with these guys in it down the line. And possibely nab Bobby Wahl, Branden Shipley, or Hunter Havery to go along with Biddle at the top of our rotation.
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Shipley will most likely go before us and Wahl is proably a reliever, but i do like Harvey and Trey Ball also has a ton of upside
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Everything I’ve read on Wahl says reliever is worst case scenario. He was orginally predicted to be a top ten pick and I think that if he can add one more pitch he’ll be good.
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I don’t mean to be over literal here – that is, I appreciate and essentially share the underlying sentiment – but in reality a line up of these guys would, because of the low chance that many of these guys will hit their peak, likely be pretty bad.
That said, you combine some of these guys with some prospects with a lower ceiling but higher likelihood of reaching it – Watson, maybe Joseph, maybe even Cesar Hernandez (despite still being somewhat of a skeptic, his ceiling isn’t that much lower than Pullin’s, and his chance of reaching it MUCH higher), maybe Brown if he gets his $hit together, Maybe Galvis at short, pushing Quinn to the outfield – along with a couple of free agents, and, hopefully, some still undrafted prospects – and maybe the future won’t be so bleak.
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That is the way I approach it. There are some notable names missing from this list like Morgan, Pettibone, Joseph, Asche, Martin, and Ruf that will have major league futures of some type, some of them will be starters and others will be traded away. But the point is, there is talent in the system, there is a ton of risk with it, and it holds back the system as a whole but there are guys you can dream on being that star. If one of them makes it you are in a much better place and if multiple make it you have a strong core again. The good news is especially on the pitching side the Phillies have the guys to fill in and in reality should not be paying for a FA starting pitcher for the next 2-4 years (unless they trade Lee, but that is a different discussion)
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Pushing Quinn to the OF actually limits him to CF, based on his offensive projection. Staying in the infield he could be tutored for 2nd if Freddy is the long-term answer at ss.
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Have there been any reports of Pujols from XST?
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I’d take Hernandez and Joseph over Pullin and Lino any day of the week. Hernandez has gotten much stronger and, just become better at everything. He has an outside shot at being a star and a really good chance at becoming a starter. Joseph is being hampered by his early promotion – he’s super young for his placement. He has a ways to go, but, Joseph has that “it” factor – you know “it” when you see “it” – it’s a weird combination of ability, size, drive, intelligence, and confidence. This kid has it and, in the long run, it’s going to take him pretty far, although it might be a few years.
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I’d also go with Giles in the pen. He profiles as a power reliever with clear closer upside. That’s a valuable piece, even if it does not carry the same value as a starting pitcher.
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I think we undervalue the cost effectiveness of developing a young closer in house. Paying a cost controlled guy $25 million over 5 years (figuring he spends one year as a set up man) frees up a lot of money over paying a veteran $60 million over those 5 years.
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Matt compd Hernandez to Astros’ Jose Altuve, I tend to agree. Could be ‘star’ potential.
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It’s an interesting comp, with some caveats. Rather than get into those caveats, let’s not forget that Alturve is not a star & unlikely to become one (no he’s not going to continue to hit .336). If his defense is as bad as his defensive metrics last year, then he isn’t even an average regular.
Why can’t people be satisfied with the gratifying reality that C. Hernandez now profiles as a possible solid to plus regular, IF he continues to develop?
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Just so you know… Joesph has never put up all-star numbers, not once in his entire career. Matter fact, he’s not even been all that close. His best year by far was in A+ when he put up a .784 OPS with BAD defense. I get that he’s young, but being completely realistic, STAR players almost always look like stars their entire career in the minors and certainly by the time they hit AA.
And it’s not that I’m complementing the other players your list, in reality, as well all know, we really only have 2 players that have any reasonable projection to become stars. He wisely ONLY chose those players from anyone at AA or above. The rest of the potential “stars” are players that will require godly intervention.
Just for a comparison on Joesph btw… why don’t we look a trio of “STAR” catchers…
Buster Posey
Brian Mccann
Joe Mauer
Mauer never hit for under .302 in the minors in any given year. As a 20 year old in his first year in AA, he hit .341 .400 .453 … that is a star.
Buster Posey meanwhile had his worst year in the minors as a 22 year old in AAA…
He hit .321 .391 .511 . and given how crappy of a line that really was for him, he remedied it the following year as a 23 year old in AAA by hitting .349 .442 .552
Brian Mccann who prior to the outbreak of these freak catchers, was probably the historical norm for a “STAR” catcher… did the following in the minors:
Worst year: .265 .359 .476 as a 21 year old in AA. Skipped AAA, and as a rookie put up the following line: .278 .345 .400 in the majors as a 22 year old.
Lino is much less likely to be a major league player, but his odds of being a star are probably double Joesph. Joesph will never be a star, you can write that one down.
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It cracks me up when I see someone say “I get that he is young, but…”, then proceed to tear the player up, for not dominating older competition. Truth is, you don’t “get that he is young”. In context to age to level, his numbers have been very good.
Joseph has been 2 years young for every level he has played, and he probably should not have been pushed to AAA, but that is the Phillies’ fault for rushing him up, to make way for mediocre prospects like Rupp and Valle.
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He’s right though. If Joseph can’t handle AAA at 21/22, he probably won’t become one of the better catchers in baseball. There are six catchers who produced 10 or more WAR from 2010-2012. Supra mentioned three. The other three Yadier Molina, Chooch, and Wieters. Ruiz is the outlier of the group, but the other five were all about the same age as Joseph at each level and all had better minor league careers.
Most above average major league position players were young for their league in the minors. It’s completely wrong to say Joseph is 2 years young for his level if you’re judging him against the typical major leaguer’s ascent through the minors.
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VOR… I do get it, because if it wasn’t for his age, he’d be a non-prospect. What you don’t seem to get is that star players look like stars, regardless of age or level. Since he started with the phillies, outside of his age, tell me one thing he’s done to prove he’s a star?
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Excellent point. By and large depending on what level of stardom we project. Mauer and Posey are MVPS and batting champions that’s a slightly higher bar. Those types it’s true they generally have no trouble at any level of the minors.
Then there is sometimes that second tier of star-guys like Utley and Chooch. They never appeared to dominate any level of minors but maybe had a greater determination than the average player to get all they could get from their ability.
I think Joseph could still be that.
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Utley, as a player was second tier to none. His five year performance from 2005-09 made him one of the top two or three most valuable players in baseball at that time and, guess what, he’s probably going to put up something like a 5 WAR this year. Mauer’s a great player, but he’s not better than Utley. We’re fortunate that Utley is playing in a big SABR era, because he’s goint to at least get some of the credit he deserves. Just to fill this out, Utley has played to about 56 bWAR and a 52.5 fWAR. He’s three very solid seasons away from strong HOF consideration.
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Haha we love us some 26 round here and my comment was not meant to slight Chase in anyway. He is my favorite player. Right or wrong he is not recognized around the league the same way those other players are. Mauer is a career .323/.405/.872 1 MVP and 3 batting titles + gold gloves so I think you’re slighting Joe just a bit.
Sorry I’m not a WAR believer but that doesn’t mean I would take Mauer over Utley. I certainly wouldn’t.
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One the whole, however, Franco and Biddle clearly stand out to me as the players most likely to become stars. Not coincidentally, I think pretty much everyone on this site would have them as the team’s top 2 prospects right now. Behind them is another group led by, I believe, Adam Morgan. Morgan is really good. They are just trying to get him to be more consistent and they don’t want to jerk him around. When they promote him, it will be with the intention of having him stay. The development of Kendrick as a really good 3 or, dare we say it, solid 2, has meant an awful lot to the rotation. If Pettibone can remain solid, Morgan’s promotion when he is ready could provide the team with a big boost. Currently, I am hearing rumors that the team is looking for another starter. Unless they trade a bunch of really good prospects (bad idea) or pick up a big contract for the rest of the year (less of a bad idea), with Lannan coming back in the relatively near future, it seems to me that the team might do better to stand pat on the starting pitching.
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Maybe Chris Young comes in during Halladay’s absence.
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Catch, you’re the most logical optimistic poster on this site and I appreciate it, so don’t take my murder of joesph in that above post too personally 🙂
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I am hoping for an eventually re-birth of a Ruiz in Joseph. Mauer, Posey and McCann are truly stars from their minor leaguie days upward. Find me the catchers who had ‘average’ minor league slash lines and eventually developed in to starters at the MLB level. The Molina Bros come to mind.
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I agree that there are exceptions, but I guess the question really is “what defines a star”. As far as position players:
A star is transcendent of their position. As in, you could put them at any position and they’d still be a star offensively. Mccann actually doesn’t fit this mold most of his years thus far. Posey certainly does. Ruiz meanwhile was definitely a star last year, but the vast majority of his career he was only an “above average player” and this year is still TBD.
Alternatively, being in pre-season contention for an MVP or Cy-Young award probably means you’re a star. You could say, a player who makes the cover of EA Sports MLB 2012 … if you want a non-statistical measurement. Popularity at that level, is usually a strong sign of a transcendent player.
As to your Ruiz comp, Ruiz has elite plate discipline. Probably one of the hardest things to learn on the job. He’s currently got a BB% of over 10% for his career. And more impressively, a K rate of only 11%. That is astounding.
Joseph does however have a good trend for walk rate… recently (last couple of years) about 7.8%, but his K rate was shit last year (28%), while the year before it was about 21%.
Realistically, I think Joesph’s ceiling is a poor man’s Ruiz in OBP and Average, with a bit more power and significantly less defense. Not a star by any definition.
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Supra, that is the nicest compliment I’ve ever receceived from anyone on the site. I love baseball and the Phillies minor leaguers and follow them ever so closely, so I really, truly appreciate it and I hope can add to the dialogue. I will have to yield to a few others on the site as being more knowledgeable, at least when it comes to statistics (I was pretty up on the stats in the Bill James days, and I try to keep up to a degree, but many others are way ahead of me). The anti-Larry crowd can scream all they want – and while I don’t always
That being said, I have a good eye for pitching in paritcular and a pretty good eye for position players. Although I sometimes miss on pitchers, it’s usually not because my assessment of what I saw was wrong, but rather, because the pitcher cannot consistently command his pitches – the Ethan Martin problem. With position players, I’m no baseball Nostradamus, but there are times when I really see something special in a player – Joseph is one of those players as is Freddy Galvis (a fielding savant, if you will). Chooch and Utely were the same – as soon as I saw them play, I thought to myself – wow, that guy is really going to be good. With Utley it happened relatively quickly, less so with Ruiz (but it did happen).
I hear what you are saying about Joseph, but I’d urge patience. He has been young for his league every year. They are pushing him to his limit. Right now, if he were in Clearwater or even Reading, he’d probably be killing the ball, he’d be age appropriate, and we’d be raving about him. Joseph really does have a ton of potential – it hasn’t fully materialized in his statistics but he’s got time on his side and he has the proverbial “intangibles” in spades. Let’s look back in mid-July and see how he’s doing. I think, at some point, he’s going to take off with the bat and, hopefully, he can work on improving his game behind the plate to limit the passed balls.
Finally, I know it’s early, but I’m pretty encouraged about what I’m seeing from Ruf. This guy can and will hit – I’m convinced of it. I’d be interested to hear the reports on his fielding. If he’s even below average, his well above average hitting should allow him to assume a spot in the majors. And, yes, I’d like to see him playing for us and not hitting 30 homers a year for the Pirates, thank you.
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didn’t finish my comment on Larry. Suffice it to say that while I don’t always agree with him, he flat out knows his stuff and his arguments are very thorough and interesting. When I read what he writes, I learn something. And, if anyone thinks it’s because Larry is a lawyer and I’m a lawyer, well, it’s entirely irrelevant. I just enjoy reading what he writes. But others contribute greatly as well – Matt’s observations, among others, are very interesting.
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I sometimes wonder if the Phillies (and San Francisco) were too aggressive in promoting Joseph. I, generally, like being aggressive with top prospects (e.g. promoting Santana and Tocci to Lakewood and then demoting them if need be). However, catcher has a notoriously high learning curve. I think there is alot to be learned by facing adversity but I also don’t think it would hurt Joseph to put up an amazing triple slash line at a lower level as he works on is defense is a bad thing. I don’t think it would slow his rise to the majors as opposed to let him scuffle at AAA for a year before he can (hopefully) handle it next year.
Of course, we do have the problem of having a very full catching crew at AA without anyone standing out to move up, but I think an organization should do whats in the best interest of their best prospect even if it sometimes retards the development of lesser prospects.
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I feel like you me and larry have a had a number of relatively civil debates on this site over the years. I however am not a lawyer! (I work for a large private equity fund though and work with lawyers all the time!)
As to the rest of your post… unlike you, I judge positions players much more confidently then pitchers. Other then that when I see a star pitcher, it is obvious. Everyone else, not so confident in and the only one i’m noticing at the moment is Biddle. He looks like a solid 2, but as Matt pointed out, could become a 1 with further advancement/refinement/velocity. Back when we had the baby aces, I really thought Cosart, Colvin and May were the real deal, and they’ve all pretty much floundered since. (though Cosart is having a decent year this year). It was at that point that I realized my skills in evaluating pitching prospects were lacking.
Galvis to me is interesting because the single most important variable for him right now is his power. It was lacking in his entire time in the minors and it looks like he still has some projection there (hopefully not a steroid thing). Joesph strikes me as a 7.5% BB, 22% K, with 15-25 bombs a year and a .255-.260 career average. But we’ll see. 🙂
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Agree with you and Matt – Biddle clearly has #1 upside – it’s not the most likely outcome but it’s more than possible, but he could easily be a solid #2 which, truth be told, is what Cole Hamels has been, on average, in his career (he is now on the borderline of 1/2 if you ask me – worth the money, but just barely so). Galvis is bizarre and probably does have more projection – I wrote on this yesterday (or the day before, i can’t remember) – when you go to a game, the ball makes a different sound off his bat than it does with most guys, even some of the so-called power hitters. It’s completely unexpected and bizarre, but it shows that he has pretty impressive bat speed. His hit tool is the issue at bat.
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I think you guys are under-appreciating Altherr’s breakout.
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How so? I think in most people’s minds he’s gone from a guy who was left off the reader top 30 & regarded as a long shot to be a major league player, to a top 15 prospect, maybe top 10, with star upside. That’s a pretty big/quick change of status.
And I think appropriately so. As to why people aren’t even more impressed, it might have to do with sample size, a slightly concerning K rate, and an unsustainable BA. But as a center fielder with power and speed, with perhaps still some untapped athletic potential. That’s certainly something to dream on.
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+1
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I SAW this poll and wonder, who do you think has the better prospects.
Which of these organizations has the best set of top prospects? I thought it was Minnesota?
Astros (Singleton, Correa, Springer)
Mariners (Walker, Zunino, Hultzen)
Marlins (Yelich, Marisnick, Ozuna)
Mets (d’Arnaud, Wheeler, Syndergaard)
Red Sox (Bogaerts, Barnes, Bundy)
Twins (Sano, Buxton, Gibson
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It should be Webster instead of Bundy for Boston.
Of those listed I think the Twins are the best of those listed. I am partial to the Pirates (Cole, Tallion, Polanco) because I think Polanco is very good and I like high upside pitching that is essentially major league ready.
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Updated useless top 10 for fun:
1. Biddle: he’s going to log alot of innings in red pinstripes, starting in late 2014/early 2015
2. Franco: impact bat, underrated defender. Easily the 3rd baseman of the future.
3. Morgan: give him some time to adjust to AAA, he’ll be fine.
4. Quinn: he’s 19 and the ceiling hasn’t changed.
5. Joseph: he’s 21 and the catcher of the future. He’ll get time to develop.
6. Hernandez: he does alot of things right. A galvis/hernandez middle infield would be very intriguing to develop & see what happens post fire sale.
7. Rosin: underrated. Limits walks and is a big presence on the mound. Sleeper.
8. Perkins: 2013 Darin Ruf except he can play the outfield. Lets see what happens.
9. Altherr: why not put him here?
10. Martin: he can make an impact if he simply learns how to throw strikes.
I think Asche’s ceiling is alot lower than some fans think.
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Although not exactly what I would have, your top ten can be logically defended, for the most part. A few things that I do not understand:
1. Defensive importance:
If Aaron Altherr is a CF, and Cameron Perkins is a corner OF (with 5 E’s in a month), it is confusing that you would place Perkins ahead of Altherr. Also, Asche already accomplished everything Perkin’s hasoffensively, while playing a more difficult defensive position. Asche has to be placed ahead of Perkins.
2. Age/ceiling:
You rightfully, Resist punishing Quinn for his early season struggles, but you do not list Tocci or Watson, in your top 10. You seem to unfairly punish them for their early season. Those players are younger than Quinn, playing at the same level. I would resist moving a player like Seth Rosin, up above those two. (Though I am high on Rosin myself).
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