You’ll want to preheat the oven to 425 degrees. Then, in a small bowl, mix together 3 tb olive oil and 3tb chopped garlic, plus some salt and freshly ground pepper. Take a pastry brush and spread the mixture all over the pork. Place the meat on an oven proof wire rack inside a roasting pan and roast for 20 minutes, then drop the heat to 325, then cook about 4 hours, or until you get an internal temp of 185.
Remove the pork from the oven and let stand until cool enough to handle, about 30 minutes.
http://www.foodnetwork.com/recipes/aaron-mccargo-jr/simple-roasted-pork-shoulder-recipe/index.html
Phuture Phillies 
Sad to see the end to a great pitcher.
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Let’s hope it’s not the end. Maybe he just needs some time off or a little clean-out surgery or something. The die has been cast, but it’s still tumbling towards Dr. Lewis Yocum. Let’s give him the chance to stomp on our souls.
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Well played Brad!!!
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Trade deadIine and 2014: I am torn on Utley, but if Cesar Hernandez keeps hitting this way AAA I say swift clean cut @ trade deadline. We need people who can play baseball and 15(million) Utley, 20 Halladay, 6 million M. Young gives you some money to sign a big name bat. I’d bring up Ache 3B Cesar 2B and give chooch a 2 year deal. None of the Catcher prospects are setting the world on fire, yet. Pettibone isn’t Halladay, but he can stays up as a 4-5, Kendrick scares me in a contract year. As long as he knows he’s a back of the rotation guy, he can stay if his contact is reasonable as a #3-4. I am done with Revere as an everyday regular. Is it too soon on Biddle, my gut says yes? Always been a Manuel supporter, but it is time for Ryan to take the reins and let the “Rebuilding” begin. If RAJ got Shin Shoo Choo or J.Upton the Phillies would be miles better than they are now.
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To be clear meant trade Utley at the deadline… Also, I would listen to Boston about Lee.
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I would resign: Utley to three year deal. He gives hint of credibility to that team. I also would resign Kendrick. He is ultimate unsung player who produces.
I would trade: Lee, Rollins, Howard (impossible contract but still try)
Would not resign: Carlos Ruiz, Michael Young, Nix, Lannan, Bastardo, Durbin, Demon Young or Roy Halladay
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Bastardo stands out on that list, he is arb eligible for two more years, was masterful in 2011, was very good but unlucky in 2012 (14 K/9 is elite), and has been very good in 2013. Also no to not trade Ruiz if you aren’t going to resign him (same with Young)
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I like Charlie but I hope that bullpen gets better with Ryan
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Sorry to be a dope. Ryan who?
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I believe he means Ryne.
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Utley is 35 years old. I love Utley, but giving him a 3 year deal is why the Phillies are where they are right now. Exactly the kind of contract that would kill them. Utley in year 2 of that deal would be no better than Cesar IMO, but would be money better spent elsewhere
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I fail to see how ~$13-15MM/yr to Utley is going to kill the Phillies payroll. There are so many worse expenditures on the roster, and frankly I have trouble seeing a better way to spend that money via free agency.
You cannot possibly attempt to compare Cesar Hernandez to Chase Utley right now. Hernandez looks nice, but he was penciled in as a utility infielder as recently as the beginning of April. I suspect it’s likely that BOTH Utley and Hernandez will see substantial time at 2B over the next 3 years, and the club will be better for it.
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Can almost guarantee Rollins and Howard won’t be traded, Howard contract and Rollins goes thru slumps but right now he has no replacement knocking and as far as SS’s hitting league wide he is fine.
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Kendrick has a year of arbitration left.
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Good to know thanks
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There are, essentially, no big time bats on the FA market next year. (You can quibble some – I’m assuming Cano is re-signed by the Yankees, and/or is out of the Phillies’ price range. Utley, if he doesn’t re-sign with the team, is the 5th best position player FA out there, even counting Cano as a FA. I guess they could overpay for Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, or (cough) Pence), but the quality drops off quickly after that.)
That’s a big part of the reason why the “tear it down” argument is wrong. Yours is a more judicious version of that, I grant you, but that’s the biggest problem with your argument.
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Completely agree, but we’ve essentially backed ourselves into this corner from trades, OR not overpaying (via money Choo, via trades Upton) this past offseason when OF’ers were plentiful. Now we need a quality bat again and I prefer not to trade for it. Looking at 2014 FA market is just awful from all aspects SP’ing and Hitting. Now 2014 starts and they can’t run out that same OF, it’s just unacceptable. Brown stays and I guess Rivere because he’s young and RAJ just traded for him, but sorry Ruf the Phillies need a start OF’er who can hit for the second offseason in a row.
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Lolololol some people on hear may not find the humor in that
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I’m not suggesting we cook Roy’s shoulder, for the record 🙂
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That’s some overcooked pork…
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On the topic of trading Utley:
I suspect management will approach him in a few months to gauge his interest in joining a pennant race. There’s nothing stopping the Phillies from trying to re-sign him once he reaches free agency.
However, it takes a lot of balls to cut bait with Utley outright.
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God, remember how ticked off some people were at them trading Victorino? Utley’s immeasurably more popular than Victorino…can’t imagine the “casual fan” backlash after that one. Probably makes sense to try to resign him to a Rollins-like deal, adjusting the $ amounts for Utley based on his 2013 performance/injury situation. If he hits FA, he’s going to get some serious offers, possibly for way too much money/too many years from teams with money to spend and no one better to spend it on.
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Two years max for a 35 year old with bad knees off two prior bad years. What do you do with Cesar then? Signing Utley is just a bad idea
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Cesar takes a roster spot from Kevin Frandsen, fills in at 2b when Utley needs a day off, pinch hits, maybe plays some OF if he can, or you trade him. I like Cesar, I think he has some value, but if Utley is healthy all year, that and his numbers may justify a 3yr contract with a club/vesting option.
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One cannot general manage a major league team based on only doing moves that the fans like, especially when they don’t make sense economically.
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However, what the fans like has a substantial influence on the economics of a move. There is only one Phillie who I have never heard one fan call a bum, and that’s Utley. I don’t think it’s outlandish to anticipate losing him to cost $15 mil or more in gate receipts/concessions if a larger splash isn’t made to offset the move.
So if you subscribe only to the WAR/win curve model of revenue, I can see your point. I also know a lot of partial season ticket holders who will call losing Utley the last straw and never go back until the next great roster comes together.
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That is not to say that they should not resign Utley, only that the reaction of the fans should not be the determining factor.
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I agree with you. Definitely two separate thoughts there. Fans will freak out if he goes, but that’s in no way a good reason to keep him.
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It enters into the equation, though, doesn’t it? At the end of the day, what brings fans to the ball park is winning (but then I think Utley helps there also), but, given Utley’s popularity, I would think that he’s one of the rare players whose absence really would affect attendance. And keeping attendance up is important, so that the team has the revenue to remain among the top teams in payroll.
I wouldn’t make this the determining factor, and I want him back regardless, but IMO the fan factor helps justify a little bit of an overpay if that’s what it takes.
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True on that point. I’ve said before you can’t take a team down without a plan to win in the shortrun, or you will lose significant attendance. If the TV money is going to make up for that, fine, but I can’t see where any internal plan for the Phils’ future essentially says, “It’s ok to stink for four years”. There’s too much revenue at stake to risk completely turning off the casual fans.
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I am not for blowing the team up but there is the question of whether anything can be done to prevent the team from being also rans for the next few years. I think I’d rather have a few 60-70 win seasons followed by respectability rather than a long stretch of 70-75 win seasons. I lived through ’84-’92 and then ’94-’06. I’d rather a quicker Red Sox style turn around if that is possible.
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I always wanted the Phillies to have their core retire with them, and I wasn’t saying just cut him, but he could be used as a trade chip. Sad the way this whole thing is ending.
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Don’t forget to save the drippings you can make a real nice gravy out of them (personally I would add some rosemary to the mixture). This makes me really hungry right now.
On a baseball note, the more I think about the more I believe that Kendrick is the Phillies most tradeable asset. He is arb eligible for the last time this offseason so he is not a pure rental and his growth seems to be legitimate. The Cubs got a Top 100 prospect in Arodys Vizcaino for Paul Maholm last summer and there is a legitimate argument that Kendrick is as good or better as a pitcher. It leaves a hole in the rotation but there are arms that can fill it (not a stretch to say that Morgan, Pettibone, and Biddle will all be major league ready by the beginning of 2014).
I realize that Utley is the better player and that Hernandez has done well so far but the gap from Utley to Hernandez is likely bigger than the gap from Hernandez to Michael Martinez (not a slight at Hernandez but at his peak is likely a solid regular ~2 wins and a healthy Utley is a 4-5 win player). Therefore if Utley looks to be healthy you are better off signing him to an extension because he is the better player and with the impending TV contract he, Hamels, and Lee (I wouldn’t trade him unless someone blew you away) are your marketable faces of the franchise.
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I don’t think the Phillies will get that much for KK. The much better thing to do is to sign him to an extension. He is not a big name and should not demand a lot of money, he’s been durable, isn’t old and can still be good when the next good Phillies nucleus comes together. Plus with the TV money all the good players get extensions now, Free Agency will not offer much and the Phillies need to spend their money somewhere. I actually think an extension is coming in the next few months.
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I guess the entire quetsion is whether Asche and Cesar are viewed as dependable regulars at replacement level. I wouldn’t be completely opposed to giving Utley a 1 year deal with an optional year. Can see if Hernandez does this for a full season again at AAA.
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Cesar is out of options after 2013. He can’t go to AAA next year without clearing waivers, which he probably wouldn’t if he plays well in 2013.
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Bradindc,
You are wrong on Cesar Hernandez’s option status. He is not out of options after the 2013 season.
He is eligible for a 4th option season. He is one of the rare players that the Phillies can exercise that 4th option in 2015 if they do not use it up in 2014.
At year end, Cesar will have only 3 years in which he spent more than 90 days on the active roster of a professional baseball league. He spent more than 90 days on the roster in the following seasons 2011, 2012, and 2013. Every other season from when he signed, he has spent it in short season ball (less than 90 day seasons).
Cesar signed on July 2, 2006. He did not play on any professional team in 2006. In 2007, he played in the short season VSL. In 2008, he played in the short season VSL. In 2009, he played in the short season GCL. In 2010, he played in the short season NYPL.
So since 3 years is less than 5 years of full-time service, he is eligible for a 4th option year.
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Wait, 4th year? I missed that one. Is that new this CBA or has it always been there and just not something we’ve seen recently?
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It is a rare occurrence that can happen when a player has spent most of their pre-option years in short season ball (or was signed to a major league deal and then traded). He will likely be awarded it, but it is not guaranteed and so not necessarily a fall back option
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I think you guys are making that up.
OK, not really.
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bradindc….if you didn’t cut that class, you would have remembered that information.
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I will never regret cutting a class.
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It is guaranteed if the Phillies submit the required request for the 4th option. This request is very straight forward. If you look at the list of players approved for the 4th option by major league baseball this year, you should see some of the shennanigans other teams have done to qualify player for the 4th option this year.
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I agree. Once he gets into his groove he is incredibly consistent. He means more to phillies that what they would get in trade (which wouldn’t be much). My sense is that he is still pitching in 8-10 years and people still giving him little credit.
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KK made himself a bunch of money. His arbitration year is going to hit at least $8M. And if you want to extend him, he’ll easily fetch $12M per year on the open market.
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Supposing Kendrick is able to retain his current peripherals, he’s fairly comparable to a younger Hiroki Kuroda.
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Phillies fans have a blind spot about KK. They remember the Kendrick from 4 years ago and hated. The dude has improved in almost every way and has some tangible value at this point. Not loads. But some.
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Utley remains a strong chance to break down at any time. You could sign him for two years and end up getting about two dozen games out of him. Utley can turn into a Halladay problem as fast as you can click your fingers. He would be a foolish investment for a team which is going nowhere next season. The Phillies will be faced with a serious choice. Do they keep some familiar names, try to patch and fill and remain at around a .500 team for the forseeable future or do they risk the loss of familiar names, a bad season, but for a chance to be truly good again?
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I think the basic problem with your argument pending FA markets, there is zero downside to re-signing Utley. The only situation I would consider letting him go is if they can get a top 50 prospect in return. That won’t happen. And that aside, so what if he turns into a Halladay problem? It’s not our money, and the team won’t be anywhere near the luxury tax threshold for years to come.
On a larger note, I think there is zero upside, and considerable downside, to turning the team into the 2013 Marlins.
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Dumping 15 million into a player who is an injury risk is a major downside when the MLB team needs so to get better almost everywhere. Sign/overpay for high OBP guys like Choo and David Murphy.
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How are they better options to stay healthy (Murphy really only hits RHP as well), the OBP is down a bit for Utley right now but this is a guy with .374 career OBP (even with decline a .365 OBP in 2012). Larry’s point is, where is the upside you bring in with spending the money elsewhere, there isn’t a sure thing in Free Agency.
Just so that it is clear (and I will likely write a piece on it this week) the drop off from Chase Utley to Cesar Hernandez’s ceiling is anywhere from 3-4 wins a year if Utley is healthy and even if he is not the combination last year of Utley and Galvis was ~2 wins great than Hernandez’s ceiling. This isn’t meant to crap on Hernandez, I am saying that even if he is a solid major league regular (way beyond expectations going into this year) he will be that much worst.
Now if someone is willing to give you a minor leaguer with Utley’s ceiling you might consider it, but no one is going to move a Top 30 or so prospect for an Utley rental.
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Thanks for the response, but I am working off the premise that OF is the worst spot on this team, the offense is where they need help, and that the Phillies are working within a budget.
Utley is no sure thing either. So I am thinking you get better production and value by trading Utley (all reasons listed above) and addressing the OF in FA. I think increase in wins by replacing anyone over Nix/Mayberry and hopefully Revere will be greater than the drop off of Utley to Cesar. I can’t give out a 3 year contract to a 35 year old with degenerative knees. That is a awful decision.
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The problem is any OF to fix your hole is going to come with these conditions:
1. He is old
2. You will have to overpay
3. It will cost you a draft pick
The OFs available are Ellsubury, Granderson, Chris Young, Nelson Cruz, Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, Corey Hart, Carlos Beltran, Mike Morse
The youngest player on that list is 30 years old (Ellsbury) and he come with an injury history
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1. Morse, Choo, or Murphy are all around 30 31 which is younger than 35(Utley)
2. But probably not 15 million a year.
3. Very true. Can’t argue that and had not thought of it till this point.
I don’t think any of the 3 I mentioned have significant injury history or a documented degenerative knee disorder. I guess maybe I am thinking outside the box. They will have ~48 -50 million to sign 2B, SP’er, C, 3B, and 1 OF if they continue to be married to Revere, which I might be ok with but they’d have to hit a HR with their 1 OF’er FA.
Thanks for the polite banter. It’s why I have enjoyed this site since ~2004
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Murphy and Morse might cost less but Morse is a defensive liability and Murphy is the left handed Cody Ross. Choo is going to get paid big time. I think a large part of this argument is irrelevant because of overreaction to Hernandez who is a nice prospect but not anywhere close to a guy you make room for. The likely outcome is that they treat this like the Red Sox and Ortiz last year, they go to FA and offer him the tag and he accepts while they work out a deal (could see a similar deal 2yrs 26 million possibly with a vesting option tacked on)
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First of all, the team has plenty of money to spend. They could re-sign Utley and Ruiz, and sign Choo and Murphy, and have plenty of money left to fill out the roster without going over the luxury tax threshold. This isn’t really an either/or.
That said, of the two guys you mention, Choo is a guy they may want to target. Realize that he is a guy that a LOT of teams are going to target, and is going to cost more on an AAV basis than Ultely, and be signed for more years. Given the lack of other FA options, he’s going to get at least 5/100, maybe more. He’s also going to be 31, AND possibly coming off a career year or near career year, which will bump the price up even further. Ellsbury is another guy they could take a flier on, but he’s also going to go for much more than Utley and carries risks of his own.
After that, you’re dealing with a bunch of players not as good as Utley, many of whom will be more expensive, and many with as much or more risk. David Murphy, eh. He had a career year in 2012, likely not to be repeated. He’ll be 32. He just isn’t that good. He’ll be cheap, so if they can’t sign Shoo he’s one of a long list of guys that they may want to look at to fill a corner OF slot for a year or two, but that has nothing to do with whether they bring back Ultley.
And, again, it’s not either/or.
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Here’s the thing. I’m totally for a rebuild. This team is very unlikely to turn it around, at least not enough to overtake the Braves / Nationals, who are both very good and relatively young teams.
The problem is, our upper level prospects just aren’t very good. There might eventually be a couple league average regulars, but if the thinking is we get rid of the vets wholesale and go with the kids next year, we’d be at a level with the Marlins / Astros, and frankly, I don’t see much upside from the kids to make that kind of debacle worth living through.
Flipside is, we continue to try to be patch work, which is a dodgy proposition at best both because (i) it’s a hard way to get by when, generally speaking, you overpay for free agent performance; and (ii) RAJ has shown little propensity for efficient veteran talent evaluation and acquisition.
I dunno. it’s bleak right now, with very little reason for optimism. Guess here is we go through a 3-4 year period where it’s a little bit of both to no great effect, win 70-80 games for a few years, and hope some of the lower-level talent turn into difference makers. If that doesn’t work out, than this could be a long haul.
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It is very bleak right now. Other than Franco, I really don’t see any above replacement level position players in the system- some “possibles” maybe, but with tools that must be developed. With so few quality prospects, trading for a star level OF is basically impossible. As others have pointed out, with little to hope for in the FA OF market, I’m not really sure where this team improves in the next couple of years. .
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that is core problem is that team has void of quality prospects at upper levels. It might be very difficult situation for next 2-3 years. Minor league system will become more interesting with some trades coming down and most likely higher draft slot over next few years.
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In the meantime, a patchwork roster is only a couple of lucky breaks from a 2nd wild card berth, even if the Braves and Nationals are dominating. This Phillies roster still has all the components of a cindarella team – strong aces, solid pitching prospects, a boatload of relief options, some potent (if aging) regulars, and a couple other guys with tools beyond their results.
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This year maybe(and that is a big maybe)….but what about after that?
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Look, I don’t have the math in front of me. But I would say that the odds are stacked highly against a 3rd place team getting the second wild card birth. By definition, that means you are playing half your division games against two of the top 4 (and in this case, IMO, the two best) teams in the league. That means you have to be all that better against everyone else. Not impossible, but not likely.
Also, we have 32 games of history that says this team is not going to win 90 games. It’s strange, cause I kinda get this feeling the fanbase is like, “ok, we’re only 4 games under .500, it could’ve been worse” as if that’s a good thing. It is not a good thing.
And finally, they’ve been bad in a lot of predictable ways (defense, RHalladay, middle relief, etc) and good in ways that were not predictable, nor likely sustainable (I’m looking at you Kyle Kendrick). That doesn’t bode well.
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The Original Will says ‘I dunno. it’s bleak right now’…they draft Phillip Ervin next month the system starts to look at lot better.
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I wouldn’t mind Phillip Ervin at all. He would probably be a nice, safe, ‘Cardinals type’ pick. And being a college position player, he probably is an easy sign in the mid-1st round.
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Agreed….drafted first week of June…plays at Williamsport third week of June…..promoted to Lakewood first of August….promoted Clearwater third week of August….AFL in November…winter ball December. Maybe thats a bit aggresive!
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Yeah I want Ervin, shot, good athlete, with explosive bat speed. Has 20/20 potential.
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Short and stocky*
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This team is not going anywhere. if they rebuild or not. doesn’t matter.if amaro is the gm I personally have no faith in the organization. two years he hasn’t been able to build a bullpen., was he serious going into a season with brown, mayberry, and revere?? and hurt young as your outfield. Why would you sign durbin.
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Durbin: And if you did sign him and you knew he was always a slow starter, why would you continuously trot him out there? I hope Ryan Sandberg is better at managing a bullpen.
The management/ownership of this organization needs to get it’s act together and use St. Louis as a model for how organizations should be run. Good MLB team, excellent prospects right now, and some sort of magic juice they give to FA signed pitchers so their ERA’s drop a point.
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jwdv22…..the ballparks could be a reason for the better ERAs in St Louis vs Philly. Isn’t there a wbesite that breaks down ballparks?.
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Yes there is fangraphs I think…But what I was alluding to was the Cardinals FO targeting quality pitchers who for whatever reason had a down year or two or 10 and then what I can only assume is there pitching coaches ability to remake their delivery into career numbers like Jake Westbrook. Kyle Lohse.
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That was mostly due to Dave Duncan who was the pitching coach until 2011.
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Thanks forgot his name.
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Here it is
http://www.parkfactors.com/STL
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Thanks
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So lets talk about more pleasant things.. The Clearwater hitting prospects. Altherr, Dugan, Franco and Perkins. Which of these guys is getting promoted first? I will go with Perkins. Anyone got any reports on his defense in RF?
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I would guess Aaron Altherr would get promoted 1st, due to his being a potential rule 5 player at the end of the year. They should try to see what they have in him at the AA level, before they place him on the 40 man this year. That being said, I can see both players being promoted in mid June, if they somehow continue this pace. Both players are putting up numbers better than Cody Asche did last year in Clearwater. More power from both, less LD%.
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I’ll second Altherr, and then Perkins. Dugan just got back, so we should wait until we have a larger sample. Franco is the only one who’s young for Clearwater, and there’s really no reason to rush him.
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It looks like there is an open spot on the 40 man roster, so the Phillies could bring up Adam Morgan to start in place of Halladay (see Inquirer article by David Murphy: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20130506_Phillies_Notebook__Thoughts_on_who_will_take_Halladay_s_spot.html). Or, they could bring up Cloyd, if he skips his next AAA start. Robles, who is on the 40 man, is a long shot, as he is not stretched out, but his numbers in relief are fairly impressive (25 Ks in 18 IP). I am predicting Cloyd, but we will see in a few days.
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Well, for the moment it is Savery, but that is probably temporary until Halladay’s next turn.
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It is Cloyd, as predicted. Hope he can hold down the fort.
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I hope not Cloyd. I don’t expect any upside from him.
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We’re not looking for upside now. We’re looking for being good enough to reliably muddle through just for the next couple months. A lot of the decision comes down to the development staff’s view of a) whether Morgan/Martin are ready and b) how their psyche/development might be affected by being pummelled in the bigs. If they continue to progress, the time for Martin/Morgan in the bigs will come, possibly as early as AS break this year.
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The Phils have a lot to do and it’s not going to be easy. Everyone knew that this day would come. When we started the process of acquiring Lee, Halladay, Oswalt, Pence, etc. the Phils were getting older, sacrificing draft picks and prospects, and depending on your point of view, either not developing prospects that can contribute or even hurting the development of certain prospects.
All is not lost though. They may be relatively ok on pitching with Biddle, Morgan, Watson, Martin, Pettibone, Brady, etc. to potentially go with Hamels (at least 2 of them will work out and there are others not named) and they have a bunch of decent RP prospects (DeFratus, Aumont, Giles, Rosin, Simon, etc.). Not saying that these guys would fulfill the dream staff of Halladay, Lee, Hamels, and Oswalt, but it should be enough to be competitive. The offense now and for the foreseeable future is like the Sahara, without the illusion of the occasional oasis.
I think they should go to Chase as the deadline approaches and find out what he wants, maybe the same for Chooch as well, depending on whether he is in their plans next year and what his value is around the league (I think he is probably worth more to the Phils than anywhere else). They would have to move M. Young as he won’t be resigned, whether by the Phils’ or his choice. The other guys they would have to consider moving include Lee (sadly), Papelbon, maybe even Bastardo, Kendrick, M. Adams, and to a lesser degree (if they can get something that is useful) Mayberry, D. Young, and Nix (not getting much for any of them though).
Howard is untradeable. Not virtually untradeable. Actually and completely untradeable as no one is taking on that contract outside of the Phils paying at least 75-80% of it and the Phils have to be comfortable with eating that money to get no better than the same production out of any internal short-term 1-2 year fixes (Mayberry, Ruf, Nix. Utley?) or eating that money and paying for a better replacement (so at least $70mil+ and possibly a lost draft pick or prospects). Rollins is not likely to be traded, but I can see a team like the Dodgers being interested if Dee Gordon can’t hit and/or Hanley can’t stay healthy. His contract isn’t terrible in amount or years and he still can help on offense and defense, even if declining.
They need to stop the quick-fix FA/drunken sailor spending spree approach, though that has not been RAJ’s strength to date (to put it mildly). Ideally, they instead would use some of that money on younger international signings instead. They really need to start getting it right in the draft, rather than play the lottery as frequently, and start developing skills not hoping that athleticism will eventually translate.
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Cant spend more money internationally with the new CBA. That ship has sailed.
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I thought there was a cap?
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There is, but its a very hard cap and no team can outspend the others.
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I meant offset money maybe typically budgeted for MLB free agents and re-route it toward international signings (though recognizing there is a cap). Thank you for clarifying it for me.
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Actually, it’s not a very hard cap. That’s how some teams have gone way over cap to get top guys. The penalty is that you are limited on what you can spend in the following international season. So… if a truly primo guy is going to cost $4 mill to sign, it may be worth doing it.
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Essentially that is it, you lose the ability to really sign anyone the following year for anything greater than $250,000. However there is a huge push for an international draft (which is really dumb) and the penalties may start to resemble the US amateur draft with lost draft picks in following years.
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I think its way to early to hit any panic buttons. With all do respect to Roy his starts were bringing the team down. If you get some stability out of that rotation spot for the rest of the season you can climb back into the race. Braves were 3-7 in their L10. I don’t see them or the Nats running away this thing and in a tight race I like a veteran presence that isn’t supposed to contend.
If not you don’t if you’re the Phillies go out and try to create the market. I think you sit tight and let the market come to you.
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Yes, Halladay hasn’t helped, but then the team is 4 games below .500. We needed to be very healthy to reach post-season. Losing Halladay and Lannan doesn’t meet that criterion. The offense also hasn’t been good. Three hits over the past two games. The panic button is appropriate, although there really isn’t anything to be done until at least a couple weeks prior to the trade deadline.
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I think one of Utley or Rollins will be gone at the end of the year. They want to find a spot for Galvis to play everyday. I don’t think Cesar is the replacement if Utley goes. I I think they explore the trade market for Utley and Rollins at the deadline (if they are out of it) or explore the market for Rollins in the off-season (if they are in the playoff hunt – if they trade him, they re-sign Utley) and only one of them is back. I would not be surprised if Paplebon is traded if they are out of it – if someone will take that contract and give us a prospect. I don’t see Lee or Hamels going anywhere. I think they add some youth and some free agents and try to “rebuild” on the fly like Boston did.
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I don’t agree about one of Utley/Rollins having to go, though it could happen and it’s certainly a reasonable argument (still not completely sold on Galvis, but if he can continue playing at the same level for the rest of the season, your argument gets stronger. Though Rollins IMO would be more likely to go). And some of your other points I either agree with or your points are at least reasonable.
But the “Boston style rebuild” bugs me. It’s not in the cards IMO. First of all, if you look on the talent they had left on the major league roster AFTER the trades, it’s better than what the Phillies would likely be left with. Secondly, they have/had a much better minor league system (granted, that has little do do with their past start this year). Thirdly, duplicating their FA success is unlikely (next FA class is much worse; Boston got somewhat lucky (and that luck will normalize anyway) and they are better judges of talent than the Phillies’ FO). Finally, no one will do the equivalent of the LA deal with the Phillies.
The best scenario going forward is a gradual rebuild, hoping to stay around .500 for a couple of years, then hope to get lucky with some of their prospects/draft choices and maybe return to contention around 2016 or so.
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The Phillies have been impatient at the plate this season. None of their regulars are in the top 30 in the National League in pitches seen per at bat. The players seeing the most pitches per plate appearance has been Rollins and Howard at 3.92, tied for 33rd in the league. Young, at 3.91 is tied for 36th in the league. Brown is at 3.85, tied for 44th in the league. For comparison the league leaders are at 4.5 pitches per plate appearance. None of this should come as a big surprise. What did surprise me is that Chase Utley has been more impatient than usual, 66th in the league at 3.66 pitches per plate appearance.
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Reality strikes. Facing the “fact” that this team is in deep water that is rising over their head is necessary. Denial is not only that river in Egypt.
Take a look at the A’s who constructed this winning team out of prospects obtained in trades of their own acquired players that drew those prospects to their team. Aside from Hernandez, Morgan, Biddle, Asche, and Franco no Phils prospects are promising any returns soon.
The present 25 is completely unacceptable for a attempted playoff berth. I IS time for a house cleaning.
Utley’s future with the team SHOULD be short…though I don’t know whether he could get any worthy prospect in return. BUT, he should end this season with no Philly ciontract given. As GREAT as he has been, they have no reason to keep him short term while he’d block Cesar from youngishly manning the position for the next 5 years.
Cesar needs and should get that chance. His SB gains along with a good BA together with some extra base hits and maybe 5 HRs/season. He belongs at the top of the ,lineup which has been longing for a better leadoff guy for years. No guarantee.
To go for prospects: Lee & Paps. Only good prospects about ready to break into the bigs. Don’t bother with trying to get ANY MLB player in return. Only good prospects.
Outfielders especially and a couple pitchers.
Ruiz needs to stay for 2 more seasons…mainly to work with the new pitchers to come up. M Young can play out his contract and Asche, due to get hot, for 3rd base IF he shows “ready.”
Kendrick needs to stay…several years. He, together with Hamels are the only two who could anchor a staff of young ‘uns.
Denial will bring more of the same. Look to the trade deadlin in July!
Meanwhile, hope they draft a “prize” at #16.
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At the end of the season, the Phillies could attempt to buy out some of his FA years. 2 years, $20M would be nice. But I think 3 years, $33M should get it done (hopefully).
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Ugh!!!!!
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Next Year:
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Trade for mlb ready 2B prospect. Pay some of Lees salary and receive Gyorko(2b)+Erlin(rhp)
3B: Asche
SS: Rollins
OF: Brown
OF: Revere
OF: Trade for mlb ready OF prospect. Trade Halladay+ to Yankees for Almonte
C: TJ or resign Ruiz
SP: Hamels
SP: Josh Johnson
SP: Kendrick
SP: Morgan
SP: Pettibone
Wouldn’t happen in a million years but it would make the Phillies younger.
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Basically, Utley has to go. Its a miracle he isnt on the DL yet. Maybe even trade him while his value is high. Maybe we can get a top 10 prospect for him. I expect a fire sale with Lee, Halladay, Utley, and MYoung leaving
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Josh Johnson’s arm is a health risk.
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What other free agents are worth picking up this offseason? If we get him at a good price its a risk im willing to take
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Jays will probably offer a one year $13.3M qualifier in order to recoup a draft pick. So what is a good price becomes relative….and the length, no doubt 3/4 years.
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If you’re saying that this wouldn’t happen in a million years, why waste your time typing this out?
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Because I had already typed it out when I realized I had wasted my time lol.
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Been there.
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Sorry but Too early to hit panic button makes me nerves. This team has no outfield, no bullpen, no clutch hitting, and its not panic, its fact. they are not a good team. Ben revere was a mistake, durbin is a joke, aumont doesn’t trust his stuff. bastardo is okay. You have imo only one player on this current team. that is untouchable. hamels. We need to get lucky and unload, the veterans like lee. and hope to get a Harvey type and a top power hitting outfielder. starts to me with lee to texas for profar and a pitching prospect.
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The Rangers said no to Profar for Upton and Stanton so far, why would they trade him and someone else for Lee and his contract?
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roccom…..you complain about the Phillies being on the cheap on international signees….well, of the top 15 prospects in the Texas Rangers system, 10 were signed as international players.
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Didn’t know that matt. but if they are really short on pitching. thinks could change, plus he is not hitting right now. remember when the Phillies wouldn’t part with d’nauld and singleton both were dealt for needed pitching. all depends on the situation.and how much pressure the team is under to win a pennant and world series. shame about Floyd out for 19 months. that’s a long time.
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It’s odd that the fan reaction to the Phillies’ (totally foreseeable, and to some extent inevitable) age-related decline is to unload the one player who is both 1)universally popular with fans for “playing the right way” and 2)highly appreciated by advanced statistical metrics. At a time when his trade value is pretty negligible, due to the fact that he is approaching free agency. My position is that whatever else happens, Utley should play out this contract, and then he should be given a reasonable contract offer and the opportunity to decide if he wants to retire as a member of the Phillies. If not, godspeed to him. But trading him now makes almost no sense, except to the extent that it plays to this masochistic instinct to “blow up the team,” just to teach ’em a lesson.
Obviously, if this gets worse, the Phillies should be sellers at the deadline. But they shouldn’t be making trades just for the sake of pleasing the angry mob.
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Approaching FA doesn’t really make a player worth less in a trade deadline deal. The goal often is to get as much help as possible for the remainder of the current season, while taking on as little additional salary commitment as possible. I think this is especially true of a large salary guy like Utley who has a substantial injury history over the past several seasons. RAJ certainly seems to like deadline deals where he controls the acquired player for another full season, but that is not a universal preference of GMs and it has burned RAJ as much as benefitted him.
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You keep saying this, but looking at the last couple of years especially, players traded at or near the deadline aren’t, for the most part, getting big returns. That’s true of rentals especially (and of course the changes in the compensation rules are part of that).
You have pointed to last year’s deadline deals by the Phillies, but if that’s the kind of return we can expect from, say, Rollins/Utley/Ruiz/Halladay/M. Young – and I think it is (with the caveat that Pence may well have had more trade value than any of them, thus making receiving even a prospect as good as Joseph unlikely), then I’ll pass. Howard is of course untradeable.
Papelbon and Lee COULD surprise us, though Art’s notion that they will, between them, get 4 major league ready prospects is … well, let’s be nice and say it’s optimistic. I think each of them could probably get us one prospect in the 51 to 100 range. Top 50 unlikely but possible. With maybe a couple marginal prospects thrown is as well.
I’m also inclined to agree with Matt that Kendrick is possibly at this point our most marketable trade candidate – who would have thought THAT even one year ago?
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It’s beyond baffling. I don’t think I’ve ever been more shocked by a thread on this site than this one. And MOST of the comments don’t even bother to make an argument. For goodness sake, Utley is their best player. Best position player by a considerable margin.
So what’s going on? I guess a combination of four things:
(1) As Brad says, part of it is exaggerated expectations for Cesar Rodriquez;
(2) Lack of understanding of just how good Utley still is;
(3) Exaggerated expectations as to the trade return (They sandwich pick is almost certainly going to be FAR more valuable than any trade return, so even if you don’t want to give him a multi-year contract, the right move to is to let him play out the year, tender him a one year contract, and take the pick if he doesn’t take it); and
(4) Lack of appreciation of the team’s salary situation going forward, combined with ignorance about the coming FA market.
But I think it’s crazy. Of the 8 thirty plus players with a significant role on the team, Utley is the LAST guy I would trade or otherwise let go. The health concern isn’t even as big a deal as it would be for most players, since his level of play hasn’t declined that much since his injury problems started (he’s just missed a lot of games). He’s still elite when he plays; if he can’t play, all you’re out is the money. This isn’t Ryan Howard, still playing despite being a shell of his former self, with a contract about three times what Utley is going to get.
Now, IF they get offered a top 50 prospect,for him, then take it. I think the chances of that happening are essentially zero.
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I agree that a fire sale is a remote possibility, the phils will not become the marlins. I think II agree that I doubt you see a fire sale, the Phils are not the Marlins. At best you see one maybe two veterans traded if things continue to go south. The two most likely is rollins and young. With the way Rollins is playing I don’t know how much you lose with Galvis. I don’t see us trading Lee or papblebon even if they have a great deal of value. I think that the biggest mistakes this offseason have to be bullpen and centerfield. Brown has been pretty good and even though he is unpopular the Delmon deal was a low risk high reward deal. I agree Utley is staying, but I disagree that you couldn’t get a top 50 prospect for him. I think the mets trade of Carlos Beltran is a very good comparison trade and he got the Mets Wheeler, who at the time was a top 30 prospect, plus the fact that you have pointed out a week FA market I think enhances the value of traded player if you think it gives you an upper hand in resigning him. Now all that being said I don’t think they trade Utley. Next years team is going to look very similar to this years team.
I do think that something might need to be done in the front office or on the managerial side. The day after RAJ gave Paplebon his contract he should have been fired, not because of the size or lengh of the contract, but that fact that all he had to do was wait 1 more week and he wouldn’t have had to give up a draft pick to sign him. That is just pure incompetence. It not like he was trying to get in early to low ball him. Think about how the farm would look with a true first rounder in it. That is really the one move out of all his maneuvering that pisses me off the most.
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I know everyone notes Beltran-for-Wheeler as an example of a deadline deal that netted a top prospect, but that trade was really the exception to the rule. Brian Sabean has made some kind of pact with the devil where none of his stupid acquisitions (Zito, Rowand, Beltran-for-Wheeler, a $20 million contract for Aubrey f@$*^ Huff, 4/$45 million for Angel Pagan) seem to come back to haunt him, and they just keep winning World Series with baffling regularity,
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ACA, ‘keep winning World Series with baffling regularity,’—–helps to have Cain, Lincecum, Posey and Bumgarner.
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Yes, I know the reason why, I just think it demonstrates that the universe is an unfair place that does not always reward rational decision-making. As if we didn’t already know that.
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Oh, then its the Philadelpia mystery and long tradition of always the bridesmaid never the bride. Well we do have great cheese steaks!
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actually, even the best GMs make their share of bad moves (gillick trading gio gonzales and gavin floyd for freddy garcia). but they make way more good ones. 🙂
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I don’t think trading Utley, even for a Top 50 prospect, would be worth the public relations hit. It would be interpreted (correctly) by much of the media as the front office’s signal that they expect to inhabit the second division for the next few years, and the effect on season ticket sales–and perhaps even the upcoming TV contract negotiations–would be immediate. Ask the Mets how many fans stick around once you declare you’re rebuilding. I just bought a ticket to an upcoming game at their beautiful new ballpark for a fraction of its face value on stubhub. Regardless of the reality, the Phillies front office will need to maintain the fiction that they’re going to field a competitive team in 2014. Otherwise, your point about not needing to worry about the luxury tax is going to be moot, because they’re going to be dealing with genuine financial constraints.
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It’s OK to me that Utley play out his contract. After this season, he’s gone. Say goodbye and thank you for your terrific years. Ain’t nobody gonna equal your offense & good fielding. Good luck to you.
Cesar can use the rest of the AAA season to get it all together for his 2nd base job in ’14.
The trades should bring back 2 OFers and 2 pitchers…at least…who are ready for their shot at the bigs. Lee & Paps should get that.
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I think you trade guys who aren’t going to be here to contribute after 2013. Those are the no-brainer trades. The Phillies aren’t really short on $, especially losing Halladay’s and Utley’s salaries after 2013. I’d keep Lee and Papelbon, unless we get a really good offer, since I don’t see any way the team converts the extra $ savings to improving the team going forward. I think guys with big future salary commitments, like Lee and Paps, really aren’t all that appealing to most GMs. The first guys I trade are Utley and Ruiz and Halladay if he is able to come back halfway decent before trade deadline and Adams if he’s pitching ok.
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I wouldn’t turn down a Paps trade if somebody was willing to give us a top prospect for him. Unless RAJ gets blown away, I’d really rather keep Lee.
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Would be interesting to know if the Dodgers would have taken Lee and Howard together last year, the way they took Crawford and Beckett with Gonzalez. I guess the Phils could try that this year except the Dodgers are probably the only team that could do that and not anymore after the deal they made last year.
Dreaming for a moment, if Howard was gone, I think re-signing Utley to a 3 year, Rollins-like contract to play 2B or even 1B if need be, would make total sense. If Cesar and/or Galvis develop, you slide Utley over to 1B and one of those guys into 2B. It would have been a tough pill to swallow last year to move Lee and Howard and close the book on this core, but looking back at it now it sure looks like if that was ever an option, it should have been one worth considering.
I don’t envy the Phils GM over the next year or so. There are no easy answers. Going for broke seems like a lost cause and a total re-build seems unrealistic and not the right approach without a better farm system. Seems like the hope is that some of the prospects turn into more than they currently seem, and spend the money in free agency wisely, and you can catch lightning in a bottle in any given year, but a sustained long term run of dominance like the one we just saw is not in the cards. I think the GM has to decide whether he wants to go full out rebuild in an effort to take some lumps to build another perennial champion, or do enough to be competitive each year hoping the team gets good breaks and makes the playoffs from time to time. The latter is a better argument if you’re in the NL Central or AL Central, but it might be the only option. I just wish we had a different GM making the decisions.
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This team has no identity any more. They are not the team with the great rotation.They are neither a small ball /running/defense team or a team of sluggers.They still have some players that are capable of good games but age has robbed them of consistency. It will take time to correct regardless of how you do it.
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I look at the the Los Angels Angels of Anaheim as a team that would be a candidate for a Boston Red Sox/Miami Marlins type of payroll dump.
Maybe something like:
PHI gives:
Cliff Lee
Ryan Howard
Mike Adams
Cash
I don’t know what the Phillies could reasonably ask for.
to make room for Howard, the Angels would need to trade a piece of the major league outfield, which would probably be Bourjos as Trumbo’s been their best hitter and Trout’s clearly not going anywhere. Maybe the Angels use one of those pieces to acquire another starting pitcher besides Lee and this would turn into an elaborate three team deal.
It’s a stretch but if this is the place I’d look to dump Howard.
If that doesn’t work (and it obviously is a stretch)
I’d turn to the Dodgers (again). They seem willing to throw away money and they wanted Cliff Lee last year and their rotation’s gotten ravaged by injuries.
PHI Gives Up:
Cliff Lee
Jonathan Papelbon
Michael Young
Cash
I’d want Zach Lee and at least one of Corey Seager or Joc Peterson as the headliners of a package as unlike the Dodgers/Red Sox deal, the Dodgers would be getting three players who are still at the top of their game and present three clear upgrades over #3 starter, Closer, and Third Baseman and not as much salary as they absorbed from Boston.
Just throwing things out there obviously but I think there’s a potential to shed some salary and create flexibility.
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Angels has a worse farm system than the Phillies. Unless they were giving up Trout (ahaha), there’s not really a match there.
I know folks are eager to see Howard gone for the sake of Howard being gone, but the team’s committed payroll next year is only around 100 million, and that’s with valuable commodities like Lee and Paplebon floating around. There’s no reason to trade Howard for peanuts; this team can’t be rebuilt through free agency, anyway.
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My own feelings on this are complex. I agree that the payroll issue is less significant than it was, and in any event no one is going to take him off our hands so it’s kind of a moot point. (And in general the desire to replicate the Boston/LA trade is unrealistic.)
But in a perfect world, it WOULD be interesting to see what Ruf could do at first base. Mind you, a platoon of the two might be even better, but the Phillies don’t really seem to understand the concept.
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What an impressive home run by Domonic Brown.
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Yes. I was at AT&T park to see that one. High and long over that brick fence and into the bay. Guy has plenty of power…and he hit it off a lefty. Lee was strong.
M Young really tagged the ball a few times. Howard looked atrocious.
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As much as I love Jimmy Rollins, i think he needs to go and Freddy needs to play everyday at shortstop. Galvis has shown glimpses of being a good everyday player and they need to see if he’s a true everyday shortstop. I know its going to be hard to get rid of Jimmy but until they do unfortunately i dont think the dynamic of this lineup will change. Too much free swinging not working counts.
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Jimmy is currently on board with leading the league again this year in infield pop-ups. That is truly a remarkable accomplishment for an aged veteran!
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Utley will be hard to let go.Always though of him as a lifetime Phillies player. listen to a lot of people on how bad fa is this year. and that a fire sale approach will keep us bad for years. You really don’t know what is out there until you put guys on the trade market. Look at how desperate la was and took a bad contract to get a player they wanted. maybe everyone on here is really the 32 gm in baseball. we gave up a lot for pence, who imo was the worst fielding outfield I have seen in years.but maybe only the Phillies want to win, and will give up good outfield prospects for a cy young pitcher like lee,or a world series and all star like rollins or young or Utley.or a veteran proven closer like pap.
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You are a treat roccom.
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roccom you are a man that speaks many truths reading between the lines and the punctuations you hit the nail on the head. there are gms out there who may have a need for what the phillies can offer if they see it as a way to bring them the ws championship. some teams may be desperate enough and would be willing to give up a top tier prospect for an aging vet. sf did it a few years ago with the mets.
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I’m really hesitant to say this, given my record of jinxing players lately, but Galvis, after getting off to a hot start and then hitting a slump just after I praised him, is again hitting well.
Aside from continuing to show some pop (.205 ISO), what’s most interesting right now is the BB rate – now a respectable 8.2%. As for the pop, he’s currently third on the team in ISO, just behind Howard and Utley. If he gets an extra base hit on his next AB – even a double – he would vault into the team lead in ISO.
I expect both numbers to regress some. But with ISO and BB%, we are looking at numbers that are less subject to SSS fluctuations than BA. And of course the ISO is part of a trend going back a couple of years.
That said, s much as I’ve defended and continue to defend Rollins, the best shortstop in team history by a large margin, a near HOF player, as much as I’d like to see him retire as a Phillie, and as much as I think he shouldn’t be judged by his current slump – a week or so ago he looked just fine – if Galvis keeps hitting this way, I could revise my feelings on a Rollins trade. The dilemma is that, if Rollins continues slumping, his trade value will likely be low, whereas if he heats up, there’s less reason to trade him.
But I do think it makes more sense to talk about trading Rollins than it does to talk about trading Utley. However, let’s wait to see how Galvis performs in another 100 PA before we seriously advocate for such a move.
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Good post. Galvis could be developing into something I never thought he would ever accomplish: a MLB regular.
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There’s still plenty of time to think about this. Rollins is on a pretty team-friendly contract and reaching his 2015 vesting option is by no means a foregone conclusion. Galvis has proven that he can handle both 3rd and 2nd defensively, and there may be vacancies at both positions after the season. (Perhaps sooner in the case of third, as Young would be an attractive trade target for a team looking for a veteran bat for the stretch run.) So there may be no need to move Rollins in order to get Galvis regular at-bats, soon. True, it might make sense to move Rollins if he would fetch a wonderful return, but he has full 10 and 5 rights, and he strikes me as the sort of guy who would use that leverage to force the team acquiring him to pick up his 2015 option. (I say that as a compliment.) So, in a pure hypothetical case where you’re getting a good prospect, say Tommy Joseph-level, I can see it. But that seems unlikely.
I went back and looked at last year’s trade deadline deals, and there’s not one quite comparable against which to judge Rollins’ value. Marco Scutaro went to the Giants for a Charlie Culberson, a AAAA type player with a career OBP of .311 in the minors. Ryan Roberts went to the Rays for a similar caliber player. Both of those guys are journeymen, of course, hardly of Rollins’ pedigree, but they’re middle infielders. In 2011, the Dodgers traded Rafael Furcal to the Cards and got Alex Castellanos, who is now ranked as their #10 prospect according to Baseball America. That seems like a best case scenario. One less heartening comparable might be Kevin Youkilis: another veteran fan favorite who was deemed expendable when the Red Sox decided to clean house last year. He netted the proverbial bucket of balls.
So anyway, my (longwinded) point is: The potential return for Rollins probably doesn’t justify trading him. If you’re going to unload someone to open up a spot in the lineup for Galvis this season, trade Young, then assess infield needs after the season when Utley’s contract is up.
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I may be one of the biggest Freddy fans here, so let me comment. First, I doubt it is time to replace Rollins, he is famously streaky and did well late last year. I also love his presence as a post-season player.
On Galvis – he looks more and more like a unique player. An astonishing, acrobatic middle infielder whp can play anywhere in the field. He is truly a gifted fielder – a Vizquel quality defender. Then it gets odd. His plate discipline is fair and his hit tool is at best average with, at most a slightly above average hit tool ceiling (40/55). But then comes the power. It ‘s bizarre; a complete gift from the Gods. One of most unexpected developments in any prospect we have followed (right up there with Kendrick becoming a true 3). Would anyone ever have believed this in 2008 or even 2010?. And it is real. I was at a game last week and i must tell you that the ball comes off his bat with the sound of a rifle shot. It is nearly incomprehensible. Freddy Galvis???!!!!!!
Right now Galvis is probably a 3 WAR middle infielder right now and his ceiling is as an All- star. He needs to play a lot to continue developing as a hitter. 250 at bats is not enough but he is too valuable to send down. If the team really tanks, i would probably keep and trade Rollins. But other than that, it woukd be hard to trade him.
Finally, on Dom Brown, to the legion of doubters . . . We told ya.
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Catch, it’s way too early to gloat about Dom Brown. He’s a league average hitter right now playing a poor LF. Right now he’s literally a replacement level player according to Fangraphs and projects to a below average regular per B-ref (1.5 WAR). I’m all for him getting 600 ABs this year and he’s showing signs of life, but he’s still a giant question mark.
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Galvis over the past couple of years has accomplished what we hope to see from all prospects: continued and consistent improvement. As ACA says, with or without a Rollins trade (and I agree that is more likely to come next year, or this offseason, rather than this year, if at all) he could very well end up in a platoon with Asche next year or sooner if Young is traded at the deadline.
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Also, our entire infield is on the wrong side of 30. The odds say Galvis is going to get plenty of playing time as the season wears on.
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All good points. There are a lot of variables here; I just see him as more likely to go that some of the other older players.
Two additional things to keep in mind:
(1) Have his 5/10 rights vested yet? If not, there’s an argument that, if you are going to put him on the block, you should do so before they do.
(2) The Cardinals are the one contender with a serious hole at short. I could see them showing some interest.
We’ll see. Certainly not convinced he should be traded, just throwing it out there as a possibility.
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Considering Rollins has been a regular for 12+ seasons I have to imagine that his 10/5 rights have vested or else they don’t mean what I think they mean.
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One would think so (and you’re probably right). But I know I’ve read recently that his 5/10 rights will “soon” vest. Probably wrong.
But I read it on the internet; it MUST be true.
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Utley’s vests in August, Rollins’ vested in 2011 the summer before resigning
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I am a dom brown doubter. and its too early to declare him a stud. still think he is 250 hitter.with maybe 15 homeruns a year. let him go around the league and face the adjustments. then you can talk.
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He has a .259 BABIP on the year while hitting 23% LDs 43.7% GB 33.3% FB (and a not good 10.3% infield flyball rate)
Compare that to Rollins .283 BABIP 19% LD 38% GB 43% FB (with a 14% infield fly ball rate)
It makes logical sense that line drives are more likely than ground balls to be hits and groundballs more likely than flyballs (with infield fly balls around 0 chance). The inverse is of course true for likelihood of homeruns and extrabase hits. Much like flipping a coin the results of Brown’s BABIP going forward are unaffected by his current BABIP but you expect him to have more hits for balls in play going forward. Overall his walk rate is down slightly and the strikeout rate is up slightly but those should return to around normal over a longer time period (the walk rate changes across the minors but he has had a very consistent strikeout rate over the years 16-19%, currently 18.5%). Frankly the numbers are trending upwards and the power is legitimate and coming from towering bombs (like last night), to balls pulled right down the line, to extremely hard hit line drives.
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I’ll tell you what concerns me. Not his hitting; I agree with everything you say about that. At the risk of jinxing him again, I do think he’s going to be at least an average hitter for a corner outfielder, quite possibly more.
His fielding … I don’t really trust my own subjective observations on this. Certainly he LOOKS better than 2011, when he had a very high error rate. But the defensive metrics – yes, still a SSS for this season – show him still pretty bad. (I think that SSS DOES explain part of that, as it shows him with a below average arm so far this year, and that IMO doesn’t reflect reality. But he still has well below average range.)
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The thing i’ve noticed about Brown in the field is that he just doesn’t have good first reactions. Sometimes he takes the wrong first step, sometimes he just doesn’t recognize where it is going right away, but rarely do you see him get a good jump on a fly ball. Once he gets going though he has good closing speed.
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If Dom Brown was our #17 ranked prospect and came up this year and played the way he has, everybody would be very content with his performance to date and hope for continued improvement. Because he was a #1 prospect, alot of people expect him to hit 300 with 30 HR’s in his first full season. I think he is doing fine.
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One can make a case that Brown has already been around the league as he now has over 600 career plate appearances. 15 HRs would be a disappointment at this stage as he is hitting a HR every 18 AB this season; I would hope for at least 25.
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I agree. The numbers reasonably suggest a 20+ HR player. If he improves his BB rate and defense he could very well be an above average major league corner OF. And as we’ve learned we learned thsi offseason, those are tough to find for less than $15M per year
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270/350/440 with 25 homers is my prediction
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Haters gonna hate.
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I remember hearing Jayson Stark say last year that the Phillies front office was serious about trading Jimmy Rollins, to the point they were having discussions with the Dodgers about a Dee Gordon/Jimmy Rollins swap. I would expect him to go if they sell at the deadline.
As hard as it would be to watch some of these guys leave, I’d much rather them play for a legitimate contender and get their final shots at a World Series ring. That said, I hope this ship gets turned around and those shots come here.
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What about the reports that Amaro is looking outside the organization for a “long-term” fix in the rotation? Is it just the GM saying what GMs have to say about always looking for deals, or is there something more to it? And does it worry anybody else?
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It screams of trading for Bud Norris or Lucas Harrel and it makes no sense. It is really easy to see the future rotation already built from within (and that isn’t homerism Hamels-Lee-Biddle-Kendrick-Morgan isn’t exactly a dream right now for 2014+). There is no reason that they should be trading prospects (even borderline ones like Valle, Gillies, and Cloyd) because there isn’t a solution out there that will save this team.
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Sure it worries me. Can’t say that I am surprised, though.
Re Matt’s response, I don’t see Biddle ready in 2014 (at least to start the season), but it isn’t as if the team lacks other decent options. Plug in Pettibone or Lannan in his spot, that’s still not a bad rotation. Probably not good enough to contend (given the team’s mediocre hitting), but I see 2014 more about treading water (which, as stated many times, is still better than emulating the Marlins) rather than contending.
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It’s terrifying and signals that amaro either continues to believe that a) this team is a contender OR b) any pitcher he could obtain (for lord knows what price) iwould do better than what Morgan would do. Morgan and Pettiboine will likey be in the rotation next year, and they should be. Why not let Morgan get his feet wet now? If Doc is out for the year and you are in fact contending at the deadline, you can make a decision then.
But I certainly see a panic move coming.
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It is a little hard to understand since long term Lannan should be back. I can only assume that he might want to get an top shelf pitcher. to replace Halladay. However, I don’t see that Norris or Harrel are likely to be any better than Pettibone and Lannan. To get a top pitcher will cost money or prospects or both. Meanwhile, Oswalt just signed with the Rockies.
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I just was reading something. and have a question no cheating okay? since 1965. twenty one players have went straight from the draft to the majors. one was a philly. do you know who??I HAD no clue this guy went from draft to Phillies.
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Greg Legg.
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Steve Jeltz
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Dick Allen
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Dick Ruthven
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VOR….the winner…you get an all expense paid weekend-getaway vacation to Camden to see live the Riversharks.
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Just what I always wanted. An all expense paid trip to Camden, NJ.
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Isn’t Camden dangerous?
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just saw that cloyd will start friday. was looking forward to morgan. sigh …
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I don’t think they’re going to need a 5th starter very much over the next few weeks, so if it’s really just one start we’re looking at I think Cloyd makes more sense. Maybe Morgan will get his call next month.
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it’s Cloyd…bummer!
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Lmao Camden for a weekend isn’t a prize. its a jail sentence. but never knew that Ruthven didn’t go to minors.
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To me Cloyd makes sense. Cloyd is pretty much a finished product. He is who he is for better or worse. Morgan, although better than Cloyd, is a work in progress, as his last few starts have shown. He still has things he needs to work on, such as lowering his pitch counts. I’d rather have Morgan continue to grow in the minors rather than be put in the pressure cooker of the major leagues. It’s not like promoting Morgan over Cloyd suddenly changes this team into contenders.
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Something that I thought was interesting that the TV crew mentioned last night: When Kendrick was sent to AAA in 2009, Justin Lehr, a Quad-A player if there ever was one who barely pitched in the Phils organization, showed Kendrick the grip that Tim Hudson uses on his changeup. This was the grip that became the basis for the pitch that has rekindled Kyle’s career.
None of us are really excited when we look at the box scores and see a veteran who’s just passing through, but these guys really can be valuable sometimes. So, thank you, Justin Lehr. Your 20 Ks, 16 BBs and 4.75 ERA in 41.2 career innings with the Iron Pigs don’t tell the whole story.
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Doc having surgery for the rotcuff tear and the frayed labrum will face a difficult road to recovery. Three/four months will probaly mean he has a September return time frame.
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I hate to say this – but it sounds like this is exactly the kind of injury that DOES (and presumably did) get worse with continued use. The kind of tough it out mentality that Halladay displayed really can be counterproductive.
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If they go in next week, and see nothing new or worse and do the procedure based on the current view, Doc said it could extend his career two/three years.
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Yes, but my point was (and I’m obviously not a doctor) is that the damage that the bone spur did would have been less if it was caught sooner. So his prognosis might have been even better if it had been caught sooner.
Speculative? Yes. But I don’t think that it is unwarranted to assume that it is a bad thing to allow a bone spur to continue to rub against your rotator cuff, “gradually creat[ing] more and more of a tear,”
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I heard Curt Schilling interviewed on the radio about Doc. Really interesting. He stressed:
1) Pitchers only hear the most positive part of anything a doctor says, ignoring the more likely outcome
2) MRIs never accurately represent what’s going on in a shoulder. It’s almost always much worse once the physical procedure starts
3) He’s almost certain Doc has a severe, perhaps complete, tear of the labrum. He bases that on Doc’s almost complete inability to locate. He said that such a tear interferes with the arm’s spatial communication with the brain, so that a pitcher with such an injury literally does not know where his hand is.
All told, Schill is extremely pessimistic about Doc’s future.
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I think what schilling says makes an awful lot of sense. When I first heard him (Halladay) talking about pitching again this year I was skeptical
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Stark’s article on this is a good read but also depressing.
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I would be astounded if Doc pitched again this season. Who comes back within 4 months from bone spur/labrum/rotator cuff surgery as a mid-thirties athlete? As a starting pitcher? I think the answer is nobody. If he were younger and a 1B, perhaps.
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Aron. cloyd is so bad. but your point on morgan is right on. He needs more time down there. and to rush him now wont accomplish anything. I would love to know who the scouts are that recommend ben revere to amaro. where is that great fielder, and runner, and hitter. he is awful. and I am now turning off the game when mayberry bats. I cant afford a television right now. he is god awful. Just based on the bullpen and outfield amaro put together he should be fired.
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Sign that the apocolypse is upon us: Free_AEC had a tweet read on Postgame Live. I never thought looney tunes would get on t.v.
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AWC has resonable points and is intelligent, but he can be so obssessive and annoying.
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Yes, but any little bit of sense he makes is inconsequential compared to his gross over obsession and angry tones when it comes to posts about players.
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And yes, do not forget his obsess. with Dave $$$$$$ Montgomery
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In their first mock draft, scout.com has the Phils taking Trey Ball, saying they have also been connected to Hunter Harvey, Josh Hart, Aaron Judge, and Cord Sandberg. How do you guys feel about that and the names they’re connected to??
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Of this list, I like Judge as a corner OF, who will eventually give you 25/35 HRs and a pedestrian line like 255/360/575. But I really like to have Phillip Ervin if he is available at 16.
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If Trey Ball fell to them, I would be ecstatic. Would be ok with Harvey or Judge. Sandberg and Hart seem like 2nd round picks to me
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Trey Ball is one of the players I wouldn’t have a problem with, though I would prefer a position player, all things being equal. Don’t want any part of Judge. Too much of a risk type pick, that high. There are enough good players available at number 16, that they shouldn’t have to ‘reach’ for upside.
I read that article the other day too, and the descriptions of Hunter Harvey are much better than his pre season profile. I assumed the Sanberg mention was for the 2nd pick.
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You’re correct, it said Sandberg was more of a second round pick
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That same mock had Jon Denney falling past the #16 pick. I’d love to see the Phillies have the opportunity to get that power bat.
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What do you like about Ball? Is he all projection or does is his current stuff very good?
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Athletic LHP with a low-90s fastball (touching 94 this spring), a good changeup that shows plus potential, and a breaking ball showing good potential as well as a large 6′ 6″ frame. I think the college OFs are just good and I think Ball could be special, I would rather Crawford but I don’t think he will fall.
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Thanks matt
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