Box Score Recap – 5/5/2013

Box Score Recap

Brian Pointer swiped four bags today, bringing his season total to 12 in 12 tries. If he could steal 30-40 bases a year at a very high rate, that would really change his profile. He’s got some idea at the plate, though he does strike out too much. With double digit walk rates and a bit of power, all he may need to do is play a passable CF to project as a big league reserve OF.  Add some additional power, and cut down the Ks, and he’s an everyday corner OF. Now all we need to do is let him know so he can work on it…anyone know his email?

Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.

http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130505

5-5-2013

90 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 5/5/2013”

  1. Prior to tonight’s game, Cesar had a wRC+ (which is league adjusted) of 154 in AAA and plays good defense at an up the middle position. He’ll be 23 in 2 weeks, so he’s pretty young for the league. SSS (and a really high BABIP) to be sure, but its surprising that virtually no one outside Phillies circles is talking about the guy.

    Once the fire sale happens (and with Halladay going down that’s pretty much a lock), I think we have our Chase replacement.

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    1. Even though the correct move would be to trade Utley, I do not believe the Phillies will. The fan backlash would be too great for the front office and there is a TV contract coming up. I see Hernandez being traded before Utley.

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    2. Big club needs to be able to reel off 5 or 6 wins in a row and it’s difficult to see that being a possibility right now. Say what you want about the pitching, but that offense is embarrassingly difficult to watch right now. Still, I think Utley may be one of the few they’ll try to keep around unless another team wows them with an offer.

      Cesar was pretty highly regarded following his SS in 2010 but I think most view him as a capable utility type rather than a full-timer. I’m not sure how he’ll fill out the stat sheet at the next level – a lot of singles and not too much more I suspect. If he could become a 25-30 SB threat that would help – and someone correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t his defense rather average? Playable, but average?

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      1. I’ll admit this offseason I was in the “Hernandez looks like a utility guy” camp. However if he can keep up a .300/.350./.450 line (not unreasonable given his age and past performance) with 25-30 steals at a 66% success rate he is an above average second baseman if not an occasional All-Star. I think we have been a little spoiled by the memory of Utley in his prime.

        As I said, the batting line seems reasonable. It was the unimpressive 21 for 36 steals from last year that had me down on him, but as a 22 year old in AA it shouldn’t be surprising that his game still had areas that needed some work and that he continues to improve.

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        1. For non-HR hitter you have his SLG at least 50 points high and and the OBP seems a touch high. You are looking at a top end of .300/.340/.400 and that is a major league regular if you can play above average defense and steal at a good rate

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            1. Profrock was on last wednesday taking calls from fans and mentioned his defense and focus were two things he needed to work on before getting the call.

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          2. Matt, I don’t agree with you that he’s “destined” for a .100 ISO. I’m not saying he’s going to be a .250 ISO beast, but he’s 22 in AAA, and thus far has a .156 ISO (.132 last year as a 21 year old in AA), it’s not outside of the range of rational possibilities that he could maintain that as he continues to develop physically.

            The above said, you’re more likely to be right about him then I am, but it’s not something I’m ready to pigeon hole him to just yet.

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    4. Okay, first of all, it should be a felony punishable by many years in jail to publish minor league batting averages. I’m not sure there is a statistic in the history of the world that has caused so much confusion and error.

      That aside, the chance of a fire sale is less than zero percent (though there will be some trades, M. Young, Halladay if he gets healthy enough to trade, maybe Ruiz but I’m guessing not with Joseph not ready and Valle approaching non-prospect status.. Lee or Papelbon VERY doubtful, but IF they can find a team desperate enough to trade a top 50 prospect (doubtful), then maybe. Utley is going to be resigned & the second baseman next year, Howard is untradeable, Rollins has on a team friendly contract, wouldn’t fetch a top prospect, and there is no reason to just give him away).

      Hernandez has done some things that now make him an interesting prospect – better SB success, more BBs, his recent semi-power surge – but his superficially improved BA isn’t one of them. He’ll probably regress to the .300 range by the end of the season, and even if he doesn’t, he’s not a guy who is going to be a .300 hitter in the major leagues. Still, with the work he has done on some of the other aspects of his game, a .290 average (possible but not certain) could play. But a lot of things need to break right for him become a solid major league regular.

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      1. There is one team in the AL West that could pay and utilize a Howard down the stretch, the Rangers. And their ownership want the golden ring this year after missing out the last few years. You may get two top 15 Ranger prospects in return.

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        1. If you throw in 70 million dollars, you MIGHT be able to get the Rangers to take Howard for a bag of baseballs. I doubt it.

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        3. No way, not unless you paid the whole contract. Jon Daniels is very smart and ownership wouldn’t risk losing him over an aging first baseman. Howard has walked 6 times to 30 strikeouts this year. The power numbers are keeping his value positive, but there are too many ways to get him out at the plate right now

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        4. It’s not out of the question only because GMs have made worse moves. Howard is guaranteed $85mm for 2014-2017 (’17 includes buyout), add another $10mm for the balance of this year’s salary as of July and you have about $95mm committed for 3.5 years of playing time. $40-45mm probably gets another team interested assuming the Phils wouldn’t expect much in return and Howard looks like something of a run producer the next few months.

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          1. My suggestion a while back was $100M and a shag bag with a broken zipper. I like your idea better but can I still get that bag with the broken zipper?

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      2. Larry, a question for you about Jimmy Rollins. If Jimmy continues to hit around .240 and his defense slips do you trade him and let Freddie Galvis start? Rollins could net us some good prospects and is one of our better trade chips.

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        1. No. Mainly because, if he “continues to hit around .240 and his defense slips,” he is not going to get them “some good prospects and [be] one of our better trade chips.” If I’m wrong about that, then I might be persuaded to change my mind.

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      3. Larry, you’ve become more and more negative over the last year on this site! Come on man. You’re not wrong in that he’s likely to be a .290 hitter, but come on. Be happy for Hernandez, he’s having a good start to the year and the uptick in power and efficiency in SB’s is great to see! We’ve got so very LITTLE to be happy about with the entire Phillies organization (or Philadelphia sports in general), that to pick on one of the few above average performers seems just plain mean…

        Let me guess, your next post is “Franco is traded to Mets for the rights to Johan Santana” or “Biddle is having career ending elbow surgery”?

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        1. Oh come on. I’ve actually been one of relatively few people who HASN’Tused “the sky is falling” rhetoric lately.

          As for Hernandez, I’ve said many positive things about him, and am happy for him. What I find to be mistaken, and, honestly, annoying, are the “OMG, he’s hitting .358, let’s dump our best position regular and replace him with Hernandez” comments. I’m trying, I think successfully, to be nicer about it, but I feel pretty strongly that pushing back against the absurd weight that some people place on minor league batting averages – especially, but not only, SSS batting averages – is a task well worth doing.

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          2. Obviously, all else equal, you don’t trade Utley to get to Hernandez. That’s clearly not the idea.

            Fact is, Chase is a FA after the season, and this team won’t be any better next year (or the foreseeable future) than they are now. Does that sound like an attractive place for a 34 year old to resign? I don’t see any reason NOT to trade him at this point, other than the sentimental ones, when there’s a decent chance he walks next year anyway.

            Additionally, Hernadez’ success at the plate is much more than BA. I find it funny that you skim right over the rest of the argument and start hammering away at the BA angle, WHEN I DIDN’T EVEN MENTION IT! Stawman much?

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            1. First of all, the only hitting stat you mentioned was wRC+, which is that high almost entirely because of his high BA. As I have acknowledged myself, he is doing some other things well, but once the BA normalizes, we’re talking about a wRC+ more in the 110 range. So no, it’s not a straw man.

              Beyond that, the idea that we should trade Utley because he will choose to sign elsewhere is certainly a novel argument. I think it’s mistaken – in fact, I think he would only leave if he received a substantially better offer from another team – but of course neither of us can read his mind. But it is a moot point, since worst case scenario they get a sandwich round pick, which is surely going to be much more valuable than the meager return they would get in a trade.

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          3. Have to agree with Larry here. Also, Cesar’s BABIP is .416. Best of his career was .358 when he hit .304 at Reading last year. That’s ridiculously high.

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      4. I still trade Utley and get prospects, infuse the 2014 MLB team with youth, get Cesar experience, save 15 million from being on the DL during the 3 year contract he’d probably get knowing RAJ and use that else where even in a weak FA market (which is even weaker given RAJ’s history here as well).

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        2. This.

          Utley is to the Phillies what Igoudala was to the Sixers. Good player, but when this team is ready to really compete again, he’ll be long gone. Might was well trade him for something that you can (potentially) use in the future.

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  2. Help me out, what does “SSS” mean, I see it mentioned frequently, but can’t figure out what it means. Thanks. As far as a comment, the Phillies minor league system may be almost as bad as the parent club, which is pitiful. Is RAJ held accountable by anyone? What about “I can’t complete a full sentence” Charlie? I have had about enough of him also. If it weren’t for a select few, Franco, Perkins, Asche, Hernandez, C., Biddle, maybe Ruf still, the cupboards are bare all around the Phillies system. L Greene, Quinn? C’mon man! P Garner showing a pulse though.

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  3. Gabrial Arias was thrust into a starting role 3 outings ago. His last 2 starts have been pretty good. He’s given up 1 run in his last 12 IP. His splits look more like a righty specialist. He’s 24 and only in A+. He spent 4 years in the DSL which screams organizational guy. He can start, relieve and has even closed. His ERA in the minors has been respectible everywhere he’s been. Has anyone seen him in person who can tell me (us) anything about him? He’ll be on Gregg’s hot list for sure but it’s possible he’s a very flexible middle-of-the-minors org guy. I’d just like to hear if he has any plus pitch(es)?

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    1. It’s interesting- he started some games at the tail end of last year too, and it looks like his Ks spiked up. His performance overall was better in the starts than coming out of the pen. I can only guess why that is though. Maybe he has a couple secondary pitches that are advanced for A-ball, but not a particularly good fastball?

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      1. Gabriel Arias is one of the hardest throwers in the entire Phillies system. I saw him pitch twice in relief for two innings each outing. All his fastballs were 94, 95, 96, or 97 mph. He also throws what the radio announcer called a slider at 81 and 82 mph and his change-up is at 85 and 86 mph.

        Aries was the alternate closer for a time at Lakewood with Giles. The radio announcer referred to Giles as 1-A and Arias as 1-B. Normally they did not both pitch in the same game but in one of the games I saw both Arias and Giles pitched. Arias pitched the 6th and the 7th and Giles pitched the 8th and the 9th. Arias’ fastball were 94, 95, 96, and 97 while Giles’ fastballs were 95, 96, 97, and 98.

        To contrast their two styles, Arias motion seemed free and easy. It looked so smooth while throwing that it seemed effortless. Giles motion was a very, very, violent full max effort on every fastball.

        The radio announcer said that all of the scouts were raving about Giles pitching the previous week in West Virginia were he was consistently hitting 101 and 102 mph on his fastball. One other note on Arias is the radio announcer indicated that earlier in the season Arias was not throwing quite as hard.

        If I had to rate the hardest throwers in the Phillies system it would probably be:
        1. Giles
        2. Aumont
        3. Arias
        4. Diekman
        5. Rosenburg

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        1. I should note that the times I saw Arias and Giles pitch was in 2012 at Lakewood. And the game I referred to at West Virginia was also 2012.

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  5. Again I watched the pigs game on TV . If Ruf is having trouble in the field it must be during the week..

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    1. The reports on his defensive skills have been good lately, if his offense comes around over the next month and the phillies continue to suck ass then he’ll be playing full time left field with dominic brown in right.

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      1. Excuse me for not being excited by a defensively challenged, 26 year old in AAA, with a .777 OPS. I wonder what that translates to in the majors. Delmon Young should breath easy.

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        1. Fair enough. But why ignore the 1.028 OPS he put up last year in a full season, or the 1.079 he put up in 12 games with the Phils last year? or the +.900 he’s put up over the past few weeks?

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          1. Matt Rizzotti put up a 1.087 OPS in AA, at age 24. That didn’t take him to the Majors.

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            1. Well, in half of a season he did….

              I am not sure what your point is though. Another (lazy) Rizotti vs. Ruf comparision?

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            2. No. Another example of an older 1B dominating at AA, not being a sure thing Major League player.

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            3. Who said he was a sure thing major leaguer? I was merely commenting that if someone is going to cite 5 weeks of AAA OPS as a reason to be skeptical of a player’s upside they should not also ignore 3 weeks of OPS at the major leaue level, a season’s worth in AA, and the fact that he is a notoriuously slow starter that has been relatively hot the past 2 weeks. .

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            4. FWIW, Ruf does have a recent Major League comparable. Tyler Moore of the Washington Nationals. Moore hit 31 HRs and led the Eastern League in 2011 as a 24 year old 1B.

              He managed 170 ABs, and put up decent numbers as a reserve. I could see Ruf duplicating his production.

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            5. Not for nothing, however, I never did hear Ruben, Charlie, Scott P and the voices of our beloved Phillies….Sarge, LA, Wheels and Tom Mac talk about Rizz like they have about Ruf going back from last August. His bat has something they like to see.

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    1. Especially since Cloyd hadn’t had a hit all season and Morgan had just driven in two runs. Then again, why do you bunt with Susdorf, especially with two strikes? Asche did pinch hit later in the game.

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  7. Pointer has been impressive at the Blue Claws level–great kid back form last year. Wich him much success.

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    1. Impressive? He is stealing bases…Lets wait until he is hitting above .220 to call him impressive.

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  8. I’m giving my Franco prediction for the year, he’s going to end the year hitting .300/.355/.505 with 42 2B and 19 HR. I think he maintains his walk rate and K rate as they’ve been effectively static the last year plus at 7.4% and 16.1% respectively.

    This probably makes him in a 2 way tie with Biddle presuming he’s not injured and continues to produce at his current pace.

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    1. Who gets the promotion to replace Doc Halladay? Yesterday was very sad to watch as it reminded me of Steve Carlton in 1986 in that a great pitcher’s time has probably ended.

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      2. Carlton came to mind for me too philabaltfan. Sad how quickly the turnaround but at least Carlton was 40 at the time. It could very well be the case that we’ve seen Doc’s last game in a Philly uniform. There’s really not much in terms of good news that we could expect here. Nothing wrong? That’s hardly good news either

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      3. After 3300 plus IP in professional baseball, and turning 36 next week, maybe the arm and shoulder have seen their limit. Roy may not want to go under the knife or the scope at this point and do any such long-term surgically repaired rehab.

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      4. Ethan Martin threw his hat in the ring yesterday. He had a nice 6 IP, 5 H 1 R game with only 1 BB. I still think Cloyd will be up next.

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  9. Tocci has three multi-hit games in his past five. He’s not hitting for power, but it’s impressive to see he has the mental fortitude to work through his struggles and start putting things together. Maybe he sticks at Lakewood after all?

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    1. Tocci being sent back to Williamsport in June would also not be a bad thing. He will more then likely still face advanced pitching in the form of newly-signed draftee collegiates, and just promoted EST players.

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    2. I think it is fairly likely especially if they want to give a look at Knight or Golden in CF for Williamsport. The most likely way reason I see for a Tocci demotion is that they draft a college CF and jump him straight to Lakewood.

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        1. The thing is Tocci is much different than Santana who is the only comparable guy. The physical tools just aren’t there for Tocci but the instincts are way beyond anyone his age. They have no one to fill the CF position in Lakewood and Tocci has done a good job, considering his age up to this point.

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          1. I’m not sure what to do with Tocci his statistics aren’t backing up his placement. My biggest concern is he’ll become disenfranchised after sucking so badly and you never want a player getting use to poor results.

            I’d give him another month and if he’s still floundering, send him to SS.

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            1. He’s been hitting a bit better lately, actually (8-25). Yeah, all singles, and there is likely some BABIP luck involved, but if confidence is what we are worried about, then I’m not sure that matters.

              Not necessarily disagreeing with your conclusion, though.

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            2. Of the hitters on the Lakewood team, Tocci is not the first nor the second prospect who jumps out as seeming to be overmatched.

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  10. It’s the Miguel Sano-Maikel Franco RBI race! Sano with 30 in 29 games and Franco with 27, crazy. Franco Already with 6 bombs and 13 doubles, if he could hit .290 with 30HR 40 doubles (which i think he can), he will be an elite prospect

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    2. You’re aggressive on the HR’s and you could even go a little higher on the doubles. But i’m with Nik, he’s pretty elite as is.

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  11. Altherr and Perkins with a HR and Triple already today. I dont remember a game when one of Franco, Altherr or Perkins didn’t have an extra base hit.

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    1. Add Dugan to that mix as well, I have a feeling he’s gonna continue on last year’s gains. Clearwater lineup 1-6 is the biggest bright spot in the entire Phillies organization this year. Also keep an eye on Nick Hernandez – 1BB, 9K today.

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    2. And Dugan with three hits. Clearwater can hit a little.

      I haven’t followed Perkins, but maybe it’s time to start. He’s only 22 and hitting well after the double-jump.

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      1. Wish he’d walk a little more, but excellent strikeout rate and ISO over .200. Looks like he can handle a baseball bat.

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  12. I do love following that CWater lineup, its the only place we have propsects outperforming our expectations unfortunately. I’ll only mention the major leagues as it effects the minor leagues. Halladay’s injury could have major ripples. Someone will go up and no one is really ready. I expect Morgan to get the nod and someone will have to be dropped from the 40 man. Its hard for me to believe that a 2013 major league rotation with Pettibone and Morgan (and KK as the ace??) will stay in the race. Its far too early to expect any trades but we could be headed on a path that leads us to Cesar and Galvis (Venezuela buddies) starting together in Philly. I never thought I’d say this but maybe they should trade Chase while he looks healthy and they can get value for him and Cesar looks like he can step in. Jimmy and Chase would both have value to a playoff fighting team and there will be plenty of them this year but I’m really wondering if we’ve moved onto a different course.

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    1. It’s been said before, but they only have 39 players on the 40-man roster. No need to drop anyone.

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    2. Someone mentioned earlier that Carrera was DFAed and not replaced on the 40-man roster, so there is an opening right now for Morgan if they want to use him.

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    3. My undestanding, and I may be wrong, but Jimmy has a no-trade clause, and my guess the only area he would consider leaving Philly to go to may be the Bay area to be around family. I guess that leaves the Giants or As.

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    4. Chase, Jimmy, Hamels, (Chooch?), and Howard aren’t going anywhere. The brass, and the fan base, see them as Phillies lifers. Everyone else is expendable – or should be. Trading Young, Young, Paps, Lee, etc should bring a return, and won’t impact ticket sales or their ability to pull in the big TV contract. Selling one of the home grown core would have too much of a negative impact.

      Cesar Hernandez- three cheers for this kid! He and Altherr are the are the best surprises of the season. He’s improving his stolen base rate, which is huge, and if he can ISO at least .80 in the bigs to keep pitchers half honest then we have a playplayer. I’m not saying he’ll be a star, but he *could* be a cost controlled regular that you’re not embarrassed to send out there. Given the state of Chase’s knees, we’ll probably see Cesar shuttle between AAA and the bigs for the next couple of years before carving out a full-time gig in 2015/16.

      I can’t stand D. Young, but I’m starting to think there might be a happy ending to his signing. i think he stays healthy and somehow manages to look the part of an outfielder (220 pounds) with some slugging ability. If that’s true we should be able to find some other dolt of a GM to take him off our hands at the trade dead-line for a decent haul. Given the positive reports about Ruf’s defense I don’t see any reason why he couldn’t fill in for a half a lost cause season – and his WAD (wins above delmon) score should be around +2….

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        1. Yes, Lee is good – very good, and should bring in a good haul of prospects. The Phillies aren’t going to contend, they’re more than a few pieces away – time to look to the future.

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          1. Could. The Phillies would have to cover a significant portion of his salary to get a good haul of prospects.

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  13. Is there something in the water at Lakewood? 3 of our top position prospects hitting near or below Mendoza in LGJ, Tocci and Quinn. As much as the Clearwater crew has been a pleasant surprise, the regression of the Lakewood hitters has been a total disappointment. I’m really disappointed with Quinn, the walk rate, strikeout rate and ISO have taken huge steps back from Williamsport. At least he seems to be committing fewer errors.

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    1. Don’t be too disappointed. The reduction in errors is the really good indicator right now. He stays at shortstop and increases his value to the team with better fielding. Let him do one thing at a time. The hitting will come around once he becomes more familiar with the shortstop position, one of the key positions in baseball. Let him concentrate on the important things. Remember the minors are for the players’ development and this is part of Quinn’s development.

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    2. No patience whatsoever. Patience, perspective, whatever. Tocci is 17 years old in Full-season ball and people want him to hit .300. Look at Bubba Starling. He isn’t hitting yet, in full-season. If the phillies had selected him in the top 5 last year, some would be ready to jump off of a bridge because the guy wasn’t forcing his way to High A by June.

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    3. Some orgs do not force train their young drafted smallish speedy-singles hitters to switch-hit …others do. Phillies do, so you have growing pains with it.

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      1. Sorry to see Carman get hurt. He was doing very well. Wishing him a speedy recovery from the surgery on his finger.

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