Taking Stock a Month In – Making Sense of Hot Starts

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It is hard to not get excited about hot starts for prospects because they bring so much promise and optimism.  The key as always, is to know why they are starting out how they are.  Sometimes regression is right around the corner and other times there is something there that has changed our view on them.

This isn’t a Hot Start This Is Who He Is:

Maikel Franco – Franco is by no means a finished product or a perfect prospect.  He has some limitations that will likely keep him from being a superstar.  At the plate he is a free swinger (not a hacker) and is going to have reasonable strikeout rates and walk rates but he is not going to be a high OBP guy.  His swing can get long and he can sell out for power exposing him to premium stuff, especially when pitchers can get inside on him.  But what he has, is special, Franco has a very quick bat that makes solid contact and projects to have a plus hit and plus power tool.  He should be able to be average to above defensively at third, and all round you have an occasional All-Star and well above average third baseman.

Get Excited:

Jesse Biddle – Biddle has shown us some new things this year, a curveball that has taken a step forward and the command to locate it for strikes, a fastball that is sitting plus for a lefty, and a changeup with plus potential and a solid slider.  Biddle is not an ace but he has moved from a #3 starter with some #2 upside to what looks like a #2 starter with a #3/4 floor.  There is plenty to work on to get to that ceiling, but even if he isn’t a true ace a #2 starter in the frame to give you 200+IP a year is a special pitcher.

Cesar Hernandez – I have been down on Hernandez because he is stuck at second and the tools are just not exciting.  But he is doing the little things better this year, the power still isn’t there but he is driving the ball better, the walk rate has ticked up a bit, and he is stealing bases at more successful clip.  I am not going to say he is solid regular at second base yet, but he certainly is making a strong case that he has a major league future beyond a utility role (I still believe he can play SS in a limited role if necessary).  The numbers will normalize with the BABIP but expect a solid year ahead.

Aaron Altherr – I have always been a huge tools guy and Altherr supporter.  If he can play center he has a chance to be very good, in a corner he may be average.  The power (HRs and 2Bs) is for real, as is the speed.  Still huge concern about how his long swing will translate at higher levels, but despite a high strikeout rate he has a good walk rate and is driving the ball well.  You don’t always get a superstar with the high tools pick, but sometimes you get a major league regular and Altherr is on track to get there.

Wait for it:

Seth Rosin – On the surface the 3.00 ERA doesn’t scream hot start, but Rosin has been good in a starting role.  He hasn’t been overpowering with only 20 Ks in 27 IP, but he has only walked 3.  The fact that he is 24 is less concerning as a pitcher, he hasn’t started much and he has a legitimate arsenal.  He may never be even a mid-rotation starter but if he can be a #4 starter that is better than a middle reliever.  That being said I am holding off saying he is there until he consistently go 6 IP every start for at least half a season.

Cameron Perkins – Perkins had the free swinger label in college and he is repeating that skill set in the pros.  He is essentially repeating Asche’s line in Clearwater with more power.  With the lack of corner guys in Reading he should be there by the summer.  Asche got to Reading and hit for power and raising his walk rate (at the price of a high K rate) and that really cemented his prospect status.  Perkins is going to need to prove that his approach won’t get exposed against better pitching at the higher levels before his start is really taken seriously.

Perci Garner – Garner is having a similar season to Rosin with more strikeout and less walks.  He has the stuff to start and age is less of a factor as a pitcher.  He has cooled off a bit of late and his future his probably in the bullpen long term, but a much needed bounce back to keep an eye on.

There Is a Lot There Still to Prove:

Nick Hernandez – One of the best stories of the year.  He has had one really rough outing and 4 solid to good ones.  The stuff was never elite but he had a starters profile when drafted, but he has a good frame and solid set of offerings from the left handed side.  The problem is proving he is healthy over at least a couple of months.  You can’t really evaluate the prospect potential until he shows that part of his game, until then enjoy a great comeback story.

Art Charles – Probably the closest to non-prospect on this list so far and currently on the DL.  Charles is old for the level but it is his first shot at full season ball.  His walk rate is good but more importantly his strikeout rate has dropped 6.2% so far this season.  The power is slightly down, but that could be a product of the Lakewood ballpark.  It is a long shot but if he can mash his way to Clearwater there might be something there.  As Darin Ruf proved last year, there is always room for someone who can hit for big power.

Non-Prospects With Good Numbers:

Tyler Hensen, Jim Murphy, Jose Mojica, Chad Carmer

Not every minor leaguer is a prospect, but they may still be important as role models, mentors, and middle of the lineup run producers for all levels of the minor leagues.  If they are lucky they may catch a break and get a cup of coffee one year, but they just lack the raw tools to be much more than that. But that is fine, because they are almost as important as the coaches in the developmental process (and maybe one day be coaches and managers themselves).

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

18 thoughts on “Taking Stock a Month In – Making Sense of Hot Starts”

    1. Saw a commenter commend Plawecki and refer to our former catching prospect Travis D’Arnaud as ‘ brittle-bones’. Of course in reference to his latest mishap with the broken foot and last year’s hand issue.

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  2. One thing I’ve noticed about Franco this year. He seems to get a lot of his hits (specifically extra base hits) in the late innings, against relievers. I wonder if he is dominating the lesser pitchers. I don’t know if it means anything.

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    1. The OPS is inching toward .800, and he looks to be just getting comfortable. The best is yet to come.

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        1. I wouldn’t go that far. I’d say, as much as they’ve jerked him around (and God knows, they have), at least they’ve hung with him and tried to give him the opportunity and instruction to improve his game. When you watch him play a lot, it is hard to imagine his being any less than a solid player and the upside is still a somewhat regular AS candidate.

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  5. I really like what Altherr is doing this season. It’s still SSS, which is a worry since he’s like 250 OPS points above his minor league career average. He has always been a very intriguing combination of size and speed, but this year the power is showing up big and he’s walking significantly more. This suggests more than just BABIP to the BA improvement. The BA has got to come down as he gets more AB, but the numbers suggest something is coming together for him this season. The FSL isn’t where the power usually bursts free. It will be very interesting to see what he can do at Reading — late this season or next year. He’ll be 22 all season, so if he can make it to Reading sometime this summer and do okay, he’s on schedule age-wise. Really not much at all blocking him at Reading, although with the somewhat slow pace he has moved through the farm, the Phillies staff likely want to see several more months of good work at CLW. As Matt says, if he can stay in CF he is becoming a very serious prospect. Certainly not much ahead of him to block his path in CF.

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    1. ‘Certainly not much ahead of him to block his path in CF.’…what! You forgot Tyson Gillies, Zach Collier and up at the top, Ben ‘Here Come the British’ Revere.

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    2. It concerns me a little that Hudson is manning CF because Altherr numbers look much better in a CF than LF. I know Hudson is supposed to be a great fielder but at this point I don’t know if he is much of a prospect. What are the reports on Altherr’s fielding?

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  7. I know many people rightly said we didn’t have enough to get stanton, but with phillies talks with the marlins supposedly starting up again i couldn’t resist. say:
    brown finishes 280/370/475 with 25 homers and avg defense.
    biddle is highly considered a top 25 prospect
    c. hernandez finishes on pace he’s on now
    pettibone goes 6-2-3.50
    Ashe hits 310/385/450 with 10 homers and lots of doubles at AAA and shows well at mlb level in limited at bats.
    Do we have enough? and should we do it? This is a lot of things going right for a lot of guys but not totally unreasonable expectations at this point.

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    1. I’m not sure it makes all that much sense trading for Stanton for next year. Stanton’s best value is with a team that is a player away from going deep into the playoffs for the next several years and has a deep farm to trade from. The Phillies to meet either of those considerations. Stanton could be very cheap and very good next season and still very good but less cheap the next three years. What do we have left from our core during that timespan? Hamels. And, ? You trade Biddle and Brown and Pettibone as part of the package for Stanton and there goes your youth on the team, apart from Stanton, in terms of MLB ready-to-contribute talent for 2014/15. Now, considering the depth of the farm — I doubt what you propose to offer gets the deal done.

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  8. I think major league ready players and especially ones who had a very good year in the majors in his first full year(brown) are looked at differantly then prospects and are valuable commodities. This trade would not have gotten it done a month ago but 5 months from now they would be looked upon very differantly then they are even now. Teams don’t usually trade away guys who have years like the one i proposed brown put up and top 25 players usually headline a trade for a superstar. Of course most teams don’t trade away a player like stanton but build around him.

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  9. I would reluctantly do this trade but it would hurt. As part of the semi youth movement we could trade rollins and plug in galvis, and put ruf in the young of. or make a major signing in the of. We would still have franco and joseph near mlb ready as well as morgan to go with cole, cliff, kk and someone else. These might be the type of moves a team like the phillies who can’t completely rebuild have to do. If they were serious about competing and not just putting fannies in the seats they would sign a big time FA of and have ruff as the 4th of/ 1b.

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