General Discussion – Week of March 25. “Ok it’s barely the week of March 25 anymore, but the weekend counts, right?” Edition

Other Stuff, Weekly Discussion

Super late on this week’s general discussion. Two games this weekend against the Jays at CBP, then Monday night’s opener. I know none of you are excited for this at all. Sorry to remind you of the nothingness that is opening day.

But hey! Box score recaps begin Thursday night, (or Friday morning). I know you’re all looking forward to my “pithy” remarks and acceptable screencapping skills. So at least you have something to get you through the next six days.

54 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of March 25. “Ok it’s barely the week of March 25 anymore, but the weekend counts, right?” Edition”

  2. Actually Brad, Box Score Recap should be starting Tuesday night, Tuesday 6:35 PM the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs take on the Reading Fightin Phils. For all of those with MILB.TV it will broadcast live. I will be watching and so expect some small sample size reactions to the start of minor league action.

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  4. Giants locked up Buster Posey for 9 years 167 million. I mean he’s a good player but isn’t that a pretty risky deal. I mean it’s not like catchers age that gracefully. This also doesn’t seem like much of a discount and didn’t seem all that necessary to get done at this point in time.

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    1. You get cost certainty which is a big deal. Even if he can’t catch for the life of the contract he can certainly provide value at first or you can try him elsewhere on the diamond. It is just under 20 million a year (2013 is 8million) which isn’t terrible considering what top players are going for and he was set to make a ton in arbitration next year. It is actually the Ryan Howard contract (well the two he signed) for $10 million less and buys out 5 years of free agency.

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      1. At least he’s younger in this one but imagine what happens if he has a serious injury or something. I think all the same caveats that applied to Howard’s deal should apply here with the exception that Posey is younger.

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          1. Right. Posey’s skill set is more likely to age gracefully and like I said he’s younger and in his prime as you point out. But his value as a catcher is much higher than as he would be at 1st base and you never know how the legs will age. Joe Mauer got a similar deal at a similar age and the results have been sort of mixed so far. He’s had to mix in 1B and DH already and he’s only 29. While his numbers are still pretty good they don’t nearly look as good when you factor that in.

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            1. Posey’s also mixed in some 1B- about 30 games there in each of his two full seasons, and 3 games at DH last year.

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          2. No. The next three years (ages 26 – 28) were arbitration years, and the Giants already had Posey for those years. What they “locked up” were years 29 – 34, which for the most part is the decline, not the prime.

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    2. Giants’ strategy appears to be to lock up the stars (Posey, Cain, Lincecum and Bumgardner) and build a team around them. Can’t argue with two titles in three years.

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    3. Wonder if the Twins would redo the Mauer deal? Its a risky deal for the Giants due to the position he plays. He’s playing this season at the age of 26 so he’s has 4 prime seasons before hitting 30. The last 3 seasons might prove to be expensive..

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  5. Why did posey sign so cheap?? 18 million for a great catcher is cheap in todays market.and chris if he gets hurt they have insurance to cover that. so its a great deal for giants, thats why they win championship, they go out and get top draft talent and put in some cheaper fill in players with great pitching and win,great organization, one of the best, ruben could learn a lot from them.

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    1. 3 of those years were arbitration years. So the first 3 would have been much cheaper regardless. You can’t say its $18/per. Its more like 23-24/free agent season if you remove the arbitration years.

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  7. http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20130328_Recent_Phillies_drafts_havent_produced_position_players.html

    I’m not typically one to come roaring to the defense of a franchise that drafted Anthony Hewitt in the first round, but I found this article strangely unfair. The writer focused on the 2004-07 drafts and basically ignores everything after, where the Phils drafting was actually very strong. Jonathan Singleton, Anthony Gose, Travis D’Arnaud, Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Villar and other highly thought of prospects traded away by the organization aren’t even mentioned, and only two of the five prospects identified as the team’s future at the end of the article were actually drafted by the team (Franco and Tocci international signings, Joseph via trade). Am I being crazy?

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    1. the problem with assessing everything after is that a lot of those players have yet to hit the majors, so the grades are still very much incomplete. I also don’t think the tone of the article was to suggest that everything post 2003 draft was terrible but that the fallow returns of 2004-2007 are a reason that the big leagues haven’t gotten much reinforcements. the reinforcements we expect to get from the post 2007 years should start arriving shortly

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    2. The Phillies did have a couple of quite strong drafts under the old rules after the time period covered in the article. However, the author focused on a period in which the Phillies drafts and international signings stank and the money spent was paltry. Since that time, the money spent and results have been better. Also, the author focused on problems with the early round picks, those picks that would be expected to produce stars — either the picks were lost because of FA signings or the choices were poor. Even in the very strong draft of 2008, the strong talent acquisition occured after the first two picks It was a very deep draft for us and Gillick spent more than Wade had spent in recent memory. The first pick, Hewitt, was a disaster. The second pick, Collier, is perhaps still a work in progress, with this season telling the tale, but had strongly disappointed prior to the second half of last season. There have also been cheap, clunker amateur talent acquisition years since Gillick left under the RAJ budgetting. 2009 was again a bad and cheap draft year, with no real talent acquired until round 5. It is interesting that many of our drafts have yielded more talent in the cheaper later rounds than among the primo picks. That may say something about Wolever, since he will have the most input on the early picks and the scouting department more later. But in 2009 we started the draft Dugan, Buschini, Way. Later rounds added Colvin, Singleton, Altherr, and Ruf who are at least a match for the first four guys picked. Unless you’re dealing with a significantly overslot guy (which Colvin was) the odds of success should go down almost exponentially as you move from round to round. There was something very strange about the structure of our 2008-9 drafts. In this period after 2007, really 2012 was our first season with significant international bonus spending. That represents a huge missed opportunity and a failure to invest some of the big revenue stream that the new stadium and winning produced back into the growth of the organization. I think the author is correct in blaming the teams recent problems on the poor yield of amateur talent. Low budgets are a prime cause of the problem. The saddest thing is the necessary extram $2 mill a year which was needed combined in draft/international bonuses was a pittance for a team with the Phillies revenue.

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      1. They spent more in 2008 because they had 2 1st, 2 2nd and 2 3rd round picks.
        Outside of Castellanos for 3 million (over Biddle for 1 mllion), I don’t know who the Phillies missed out on due to budgetary constraints, the last few years. And if you can name 1 or 2 more they could have had by going over budget, I can name 5-10 more, that everybody thought they should have picked, for a ridiculous price, that is a bust. Stetson Allie and Michael Inoa are perfect examples of why they can justify their position on not being frivolous with bonuses amateurs.
        Unless they are totally convinced the guy is going to make the Majors, they should have a value attached to the player, that they won’t go over.

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        1. But clearly this hasn’t been a matter of having a value attached to a specific player. Since the sum of their bonuses has equalled the commissioner’s slot recommendation and their primo round bonuses have been at or below the commissioners recommendation, it is perfectly clear that this has nothing to do with assigning value to each player and everything to do with Selig assigning value to each slot.

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          1. I think where I disagree, is the feeling that the team is just blindly paying bonuses to their picks due to deference to Bud Selig. Personally, I don’t think they are doing it for that reason. I think the organization has a philosophy that feels that ameteurs are overpaid and they use the commissioners slotting system as an excuse to not give out money, they don’t want to spend anyway.
            All I’m saying is that there point of view is not without merit. Detroit overpays all of the time, and their system isn’t great. Boston overpays and their system is good, but their top prospect is a “below slot” player, while most of their “over slots” are no good. Seattle has four (4) future Allstars at the top of their list, and they are all “slot” signings. The preoccupation with going “over slot” has little merit, because there are too many examples that show it doesn’t necessarily work any better than going slot.

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  8. honcho your argument to me is incomplete because only gose has played half a year. none of the others have done anything, so far its only a opinion that singleton can play, or villar. or any of the others,just like tocci you mention he is a skinny young kid, how can you put him up there as a top prospect , i just dont understand that, maybe i am missing something.

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  9. A few things that I noticed at the last ST games, Valle played LF for the second time that I’ve seen and Villalobos who I thought would be starting at 2nd for Clearwater was hobbling around with a wellwrapped right knee with a large brace on it. Looks like he won’t be playing for a while. As for Valle it really doesn’t make sense because his defense was probably the best part of his game, but I guess they want his and Rupp’s bat in the line-up and he was better suited for the OF. The group 5 squad played a intrasquad game also and I have video of one of Larry Greene’s better AB’s this spring, along with Pullin and Z. Green. http://www.youtube.com/user/TheGkita?feature=mhee

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    1. Watch Valle’s value drop like a rock as he moves away from C and down a level. Still a young guy but it appears the Phillies really should have traded him this offseason.

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      1. The failed Lopez trade not withstanding, I don’t think Valle has as much value as some people believe. To retard the development of Joseph or Rupp (both of whom I believe have greater chance to make more significant contributions at the major league level) on the hopes that Valle will suddenly discover plate discipline after 6 years would be ill advised.

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    2. Valle is now second to Joseph. I guess they like his power potential for LF, since Joseph and possibly Rupp/Lino/Ludy/Logan/the new Latin signee, et al, will be in the catching mix in the next 2/3 years.

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      1. I don’t think they are moving Valle to LF because they think his power will play at that position. It is just a way to keep getting him reps for offensive development.
        Spending part, or all of this season in LF isnt going to hurt his developement as a player, or hurts his stock. Valle has been a professional catcher for 5-6 years and has caught every winter in the Mexican league. I think it may help Valle, in the long run, by saving his legs a little, while having him concentrate fully on his offensive game.
        Other potential trade partners aren’t going to forget Valle is a catcher, just because he plays some LF this year.

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        1. I agree with VOR. The only thing hurting Valle’s stock is walking 5 times a season. If he develops proper patience, other GM’s will know he can be a catcher

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        2. Obviously, playing LF increases his value and depth of positional experience. Felt no need to bloviate that point. However, his power does make him an enticing asset at that position, plus his strong arm is also a defensive asset. And we all realize, plus every team in MLB, after catching for over his entire career he is more then competent there. And I would not be surprised if Joe Jordan has him play some at first base to further enhance his resume

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          1. Playing LF and 1B doesn’t enhance Valle’s resume. Playing LF allows Valle to get another season’s worth of ABs at AA (while he is still young), while also allowing Rupp to continue to develope. Valle doesn’t hit well enough to play catcher, let alone LF, so the fact that he can play LF would not be a reason to trade for Valle.

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  10. Seems funny to me how the phillies come up with older catchers, who can hit a little, like now with krafz and his defense is unreal, love kratz arm, on defense alone this kid should have been on this team over the stiff we had before. who hit like 188 for two years.

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    1. Yeah, it’s funny you say that. I remember in 2011 wondering aloud on this site what was wrong with Kratz that he couldn’t get a shot with the major league team as his offense was really good. I asked the folks who follow the IPigs if he was a bad fielder (the answer was no, he’s pretty good), had a bad arm (again, I was told no, he throws well), couldn’t call a game (was told his game calling was fine to good) or was a clubhouse distraction (again, no, he’s a great guy – salt of the earth), so I was left to conclude that he was just one of those players who, due to age and lack of fanfare was overlooked and deserved a shot. I, and many others on this site, were right – Kratz is one hell of a back-up catcher. I don’t feel the slightest hesitation about having him start almost every day for a month.

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  11. According to Jeff Shuler at the Hog Blog, Rosenberg is the 5th starter and Cochran will stay in Fla. at EST where he will be able to remain stretched out if needed to start. So either this is the 1st time that the Phillies have had this kind of talent at the AAA level or its a change in philosophy from the FO or both. Whatever its definitely a positive for the farm system and the organization..

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    1. Ahhhhh, what happened to the LV days of Rodrigo Lopez, Brian Bass, Tom Cochran, Brian Gordon, and friends. Who are these Pettibone Martin Morgan Cloyd and Rosenberg characters?????

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    2. Kevin Correia is the 2nd best pitcher on the staff, and he had a bad spring, so Worely is the only other choice.

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  13. Little off subject . just wondering if its me or the world is getting nuts , andrus the shortstop for texas is a career 274 hitter, with no power, steals about 30 bases . is that worth over 15 million a year,

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    1. Probably not today but a few years from now if he remains the same player it might be decent value. It’s tough to know with new TV revenues leaking into the game what the new normal is going to be.

      What is strange is where that puts Profar and or Kinsler!

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    2. It is just you, I think it is actually a great deal for Texas and surprised he didn’t get more. He would have hit free agency in 2014 at age 26. There is no way the Yankees would not have given him a deal that was over $200 million.

      The reason Andrus is worth it is he just finished up his fourth season at the age of 24. He is still getting better and has shown more power each year but his career line is .275/.342/.353 which includes an impressive walk rate for someone with so little power. He is also one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball. Baseball Reference has him at 12.4 WAR over his first 4 years with a fluky defensive score in 2010 and Fangraphs has him at 13 WAR. So they have him now at 10yrs $131 million. He has to average about 3 wins a year without inflation to return value. He has done that to this point and he is only going to get better going forward.

      This likely moves Profar to second base long term and Kinsler to 1B/LF/DH

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      1. Andrus is currently worth 13m per year, but there is no 10 year contract that is a bargain. I dont think it was a bargain for the Rangers, because singles hitters, don’t get 20mil per contracts, no matter what their WAR. (See Bourne).
        Other than Longoria’s original deal, I don’t think I’ve seen an 8+ year deal, that was clearly a bargain for an Organization.

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        1. I think that people still don’t fully appreciate the extent to which the increasing TV revenue stream, combined with the tendency of teams to lock up young talent, has changed the financial landscape of the game.

          I wouldn’t call the deal a “bargain,” but a team with a 24 year old player of Andrus’ accomplishments with only 2 of team control remaining absolutely SHOULD be looking to lock the player up for the long term. He’ll likely be worth the contract, and even a slight overpay is more than justifiable given the new reality: the best players in the game simply are no longer going to be available on the FA market, and teams will increasingly have the resources to lock up their own players long term.

          And IF his offensive game does continue to develop – not certain, but possible – the contract WILL be a bargain.

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      2. Kinsler may end up as the odd man out. He seems to short to play 1B and his bat wouldn’t seem to play there. I guess LF is an option which would make Murphy expendable.

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  14. I just think 275 hitter with little power, could hurt you in the long run, 8 years imo is a gamble, unless you think a light hitting good fielding shortstop without power is worth that kind of money, these are the types of contracts that get teams in trouble.as I have said its only my opinion,with this kids age and numbers, i would have went no more than 4 years, and then if it cost me more so be it,this isnt a stanton type player,

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    1. No this isn’t a Stanton type player (Harper and Stanton contracts are going to be insane, no way Harper gets less than $300 million). The real key you are missing is the defense and the inflation going on. The TV revenue is going to jump and more players are getting locked up on extensions. The free agent market will be very few players and a lot of money to spend.

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  15. So officially Revere leads off tonight. Seriously I don’t know why Charlie makes such a fuss about it. I am willing to bet its the line-up he runs out there most nights only swap D. Young for Mayberry and Chooch for Kratz when both return.

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