Roster Projections

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Time to take another shot at roster projections with two weeks to go until the close of Spring Training.  I made two changes at the major league level and have now included some early thoughts on the Lehigh Valley roster.

Phils

Pitchers: (12); Hamels, Lee, Halladay, Kendrick, Lannan, Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Aumont, Cook, Valdes.  Cook’s roster spot may be solidifying as starters struggle during the Spring. The Phils need someone who can throw 3-4 innings if necessary.  Valdes, Horst and Diekman are in the race for the last bullpen spot.  Valdes has been very impressive as of late, walking one and striking out 16 this Spring.

Catchers: Kratz, Quintero.  Ruiz suspended for 25 games.

Infield: Howard, Utley, Rollins, Young, Galvis, Frandsen

Outfield: Brown, Revere, Mayberry, Nix, Inciarte.   Delmon Young will be starting on the DL. I moved Inciarte ahead of Pete Orr.  My thoughts are with Young on the DL in the early season, it gives the Phils more time to evaluate Inciarte who has impressed in the Spring.  Pete Orr will always be available for the call up.

Lehigh Valley:

Starters: Pettibone, Martin, CLoyd, Lopez, Cochran    DL: Brian Bass (recurring case of turf toe/shin contusion)

Relievers: Rosenberg, STutes, DeFratus, Diekman, Horst, Jiminez, Savery.  Those on the fringe here are Zach Miner and Justin Friend.  I would like to see Friend get an extended look at the back end of the ‘pen.

Catchers: Joseph and Lerud.  Lerud and Suomi are pretty much interchangeable, although Lerud is a much better defensive catcher.

Infield: Overbeck, Hernandez, Betancourt, Orr, Fields, Martinez.  I am praying for Asche, but I think Martinez or Fields makes it to start the season.

Outfield: Derrick Mitchell, Ruf, Susdorf, Gillies, Jermaine Mitchell.

I may take a shot at Reading and Clearwater tomorrow but at this stage, there are a ton of moving parts as we drop down a level or two.

54 thoughts on “Roster Projections”

  1. where do you see Valle (C)? Also.. .I think Betancourt has an opt-out of 3/24. Think he stays? Also… (SS) Blanco?

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    1. Valle will start every day in Reading I believe. Blanco was released some time ago. As far as Betancourt goes, it depends what other teams may need help up the middle.

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          1. off the BA website Philadelphia Phillies
            Signed: RHP Troy Marks, C Matt Hitt (Arizona (Freedom)), 2B Shawn Williams (Long Island (Atlantic)), SS Miguel Abreu (re-signed), SS Andres Blanco (re-signed)

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            1. Blanco…you can only hope to contain him…

              re: workout groups, I believe he was re-signed after March 13, but I’ve still yet to hear how healthy he is. Word was his shoulder was a problem….hence my prediction below of possible extended spring or DL for him to start. I guess you’ve got to figure he’s at least healthy enough to be re-signed…

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          2. As of March 14th, Andres Blanco was re-signed by the Phillies, per Matt Eddy of Baseball America.

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  2. Morillo was already released from minor league camp. No way they are cutting Friend…he will be the closer at AAA if Aumont makes the big club. I think Savery is more on the chopping block than Friend.

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    1. I would guess DeFratus closes at AAA ahead of Friend. Friend may wind up in the AAA pen, but not in high leverage roles until they run out of guys in position for big league roles or until he proves himself a little while.

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  3. I think Blanco may be on the Lehigh Valley team and Betencourt will opt out for a better opportunity.
    I agree if they promote Joseph to AAA, they should send Valle to AA. It gives him more opportunity to get at-bats. There is less DH opportunities in the International League.
    I like having Pete Orr or Jermaine Mitchell on the MLB club as the 25th man (2nd LH pinch hitter), more than Inciarte. They should work out compensation, and assign Inciarte to AA, to continue his development.
    I think Horst has a spot in the pen. The last spot is a battle between Cook and Valdes.

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    1. Agree with your last two sentences and I think Valdes has a better shot than Cook. Valdes can play the long man role and probably do it way better than Cook and his 2 K/9.

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    2. I agree, J Mitchell is winning the last OF spot and I think Cook, Valdes and Horst are winning three spots. Aumont will close at LHV but Friend will be here too. I think Jimenez will go to AA, JC will get released, and Savery is fighting with Cisco for a spot. No way Betancourt sticks around but I think Hanzawa will make the team. I think MM will be released. It looks like Asche will start at AA and I think Valle will be on the them too.

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      1. I don’t believe both Valdes and Cook will make the opening day bullpen. I think Aumont gets a spot, although Stutes still has a chance. Horst gets the 2nd LH spot. Valdes and Cook battle it out for the final long man spot, Valdes having the advantage.

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  4. Indeed, Betancourt has an opt-out next week for that very reason: To have time to find an easy path back to the majors. Unless he feels like a member of the projected Phils infield above is about to be injured, he’s gone. No real chance of him ending up in Allentown.

    The points about Cook are well-taken. However, my opinion remains that he’ll be with the IronPigs so that he’s stretched out to make a start if need be. And if he’s not fresh, it’ll be Lopez (early season anyway). They’ll piece-meal the long innings and run the 476 shuttle for fresh arms as needed.

    I’ve got Valdes over Horst and Diek right now. If Blanco’s still “recovering,” he could remain in Clearwater initially. Asche’s got a shot. Valle either to Reading or DL– or there could still be a trade in the works. Lerud>Suomi for MLB purposes, so he gets the AAA job initially. Interesting to see what happens then when Chooch comes back. LHV pen is still in flux; I agree with Bill about Friend. An “injury” real or imagined could happen here in the ‘pen, too.

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  5. I’ll project Horst and DeFratus over Cook and Aumont. DeFratus’ command will beat out Aumont. And Horst earned his pen job in their eyes last year. Cook starts st AAA for a while.

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      1. Like everyone, I love Aumont’s stuff. But I’m pretty sure he had one of his innings at the WBC – a walk or two, maybe a HBP, and then he gives up hits. I think he needs to improve command and how he responds when he’s off. I could see Dubee preferring a more consistent guy for the 6/7 inning role while Aumont works in AAA. Also, based on a DeFratus interview I heard, he is mature, confident, and humble – he’ll finish ST very strong and take a spot.

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        1. Ha. And I’m wrong again… DeFratus and Diekman just optioned to AAA, as per Salisbury. It felt so reasonable. DeFratus will be back.

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  6. Thanks for posting this projection for discussion. Did you forget about Leandro Castro?

    I tend to agree that Inciarte to the majors makes sense to start. See how he does and continue their evaluation. However, I think he is nothing more than a 4th OF and not sure where he goes in the Phillies organization anyway with Gillies at AAA, Collier at AA, and James at one or the other as another good defensive CF.

    I’d put James in AAA to see how he does and D. Mitchell in AA as a backup CF. J. Mitchell is interesting since I’d like to see him at AAA but not sure how much he’d play with Gillies, Ruf, and Castro as the main starters and with Valle/Joseph at the DH.

    I agree with Majors projection though I see one of the relievers in for Cook. Why pay Cook 1.1M (is that guaranteed if he is on opening day?) to barely play. Stutes would be my general prediction but Diekman would be a good choice as a LOOGY (if used that way) with Durbin and Valdes as the ‘long men’ options.

    For LHV, not sure who the SS is since Orr is a poor choice due to his poor fielding. I’d actually prefer Orr to Galvis in the majors so Galvis would get daily at-bats, but it is obvious that Galvis will be the defensive replacement for the infield for M.Young or Utley.
    I think Rupp will be the AA catcher so Valle and Joseph will need to share C/DH. Since Joseph has played 1B maybe he gets reps there and Overbeck is either cut or sits with Fields at 1B/3B.
    Please just cut Martinez. I’d rather any other crappy SS, like Blanco or even Hanzawa.

    Asche to AA since there is no reason to rush him. Since how Fields does and decide between him and Overbeck as righty power guy when/if Asche forces a promotion.

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    1. I agree about Valle/Joseph in AAA. I don’t see the value in starting Valle in AA after his promotion last season. Plus, slotting him at DH would allow him to focus less on his defense (which few question) and more on his approach at the plate, which is what is really hurting him right now.

      Plus, I think Rupp is a potential asset who deserves to show what he can do with a AA promotion.

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    2. I got news for you D. Mitchell is a better outfielder than all those guys your mentioning and so far in spring he’s 8-16 batting 500 so you big time per diction people sure need to learn something about this game……

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  7. Others have already jumped in on Jermaine Mitchell who could land in a left field platoon with Mayberry with NIx being traded or released. If Ruf is at Lehigh Valley to start the season as everyone seems to presume, then an opening season outfield could be: Mitchell-Mayberry/Revere/Brown with Inciarte backing up. Assuming no injuries by the time D. Young is ready, then the Phils swing a deal with the D’backs that keep Inciarte in the organization and he goes to Reading to play every day. Mayberry becomes the 5th outfielder and Young/Mitchell platoon or Young becomes an every day left fielder. The best scenario would have been Ruf having a breakout camp camp offensively and defensively but realistically, this is not such a bad set of developments.

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    1. There is zero reason to cut or trade Lance Nix. And no team in their right mind would start a season with both Jermain Mitchell and Ender Inciarte as their two backup Outfielders.

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    2. I don’t see how Inciarte is more valuable than Nyx (under contract) at this point- besides if Mitchell makes the team, then the speedy 5th guy role is filled.

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    4. Mitchell is 28 years old, and had a middling season repeating the PCL last year. I think he’s just depth in case there are injuries and the Phils need an extra OF at some point. Nix is better.

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  8. Where’s all this love for Jermaine Mitchell coming from? He’s barely played on the A roster which seems to tell me the organization isn’t spending too much thought on him.

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    3. If you assume Ruf continues to look…rough, then it’s between Inciarte and Mitchell for the 5th spot as I recall. So who would you trust to be more productive- him or Mitchell? It would be one thing if Inciarte projected better, but at best he could be Gerado Parra in a couple of years. Not really the kind of guy you go out of your way to try to develope.

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    4. He also had pedestrian numbers in the PCL last season. People are getting excited over spring sample sizes; hope the Phillies don’t make the same mistake. I’ll take the potential from Inciarte any day.

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      1. So the small spring sample from the High A player, is better than the small spring sample from the AAA player. Interesting.

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          1. I’m an upside guy too. But I reserve that for valuing prospect status. Inciarte doesn’t have more ‘potential’ value for the 2013 major league team than Jermaine Mitchell or Pete Orr. To believe High A player can help the 2013 club as the 25th man, more than a Triple A player, is unrealistic at best.

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            1. That’s fair. But I’d still rather have Inciarte on the roster + whichever prospect we would hypothetically trade for him in the system than have Mitchell or Orr on the roster and lose the prospect. I just don’t think those guys would offer that much more than Inciarte in a 5th OF role.

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            3. Now your line of reasoning, I can understand. I still don’t agree though.
              There is such a thing as negative WAR. Logically, Inciarte is a lesser current player than Jermaine Mitchell. Assumming Mitchell is a zero WAR player and Inciarte is a negative WAR player, I would rather give up a prospect to get Inciarte, than lose a Major league game in the standings, due to playing a single A player in a key spot.
              As long as the player used as compensation, is a lesser prospect than Inciarte, the transaction is a win. Personally, I would give up any player above A+, not in the top 30, for Inciarte, without blinking.

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            4. I think when D Young comes back, which looks like it will be before too long, this discussion will become moot anyway. Young’s not much, but he is imo a significant enough upgrade over Inciarte (if the team uses him the right way) that I would be okay with losing the type of prospect you describe.

              Michael Martinez, for as terrible as he was last year, was still only worth -0.5 fWAR and -0.2 rWar. So I don’t think Inciarte would hurt the team that much in a 5th OF role.

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            5. See, the last part of your reasoning is where I disconnect. Yes, Inciarte can be worse than Martinez.
              People said for 3 seasons, “…Rosenberg and Schwimer can’t be worse than David Herndon…”. Then they finally got their chance and were shown to be worse.
              I would expect a guy like J Mitchell to be as bad as Martinez, but I would expect Inciarte to be worse, at this stage of his development. I wouldn’t risk that trying to hold onto a Julio Rodriguez or BJ Rosenberg type.

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            6. In a significant role Inciarte would not be good and be completely exposed. However he could see good use on a purely defensive and pinch running role. He would not be the back up if Revere was injured, but could be good for a team that might need to get the most out of small ball and defensive value (which is why I think Galvis should make the team)

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            7. Not that I would be up in arms about it, because I doubt we’d miss a guy like that. But for one, I’m not sure the Dbacks would be okay taking a prospect on that level. And I think Inciarte would be about as helpful as Martinez. I think he could put up at least close to a .178/.208/.252 line and be fine in the field and on the bases, like MiniMart did. And if he was worse, how much worse? -0.1 WAR?

              The Herndon situation was a little different, because he really wasn’t even that bad. At least not by ERA. But Martinez really was that bad last year.

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    5. The A’s got ride of him for a reason , he’s not what you guys think he is it’s that simple.

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  9. Here’s something to think about re: long guy spot:
    I know Cook and Lopez are still in camp but I continue to see them as 6/7 starters parked at LHV until the young bucks (Pettibone/Martin/Morgan) could be considered for that role. Valdes has gone three his last two times out and not allowed a run. Pencil him in for that role, with Miner as the dark horse (he of the double digit ERA is still in MLB camp).
    So now we have Stutes, Aumont and Horst for two spots. I know Horst did really well last year, but I’d go Stutes and Aumont if I had to make the decision myself right this minute.

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  10. We know that the Phils lost a substantial number of games when they were leading going into the 7th inning, etc. Building the pen has been a major aim over the winter.

    Taking a look at the number of candidates following Paps, Adams, & Durbin IMO there are plenty of worthy candidates for the big club and several more to be parked at Lehigh Valley.

    To me, Bastardo is still questionable. He seems stuck in old bad habits. I DO like Valdes according to what I’ve seen in ST. I believe they need a 3rd lefty for the pen for more maneuverability. Horst was good last season; why not give him the shot?

    Now….about Halladay…..!!?

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  12. Just got back from a trip to Spring Training. My two cents: Stutes looked like the most impressive reliever down there, by far, just in terms of his results and the way he worked. He really stalks the mound. Yes, yes, that’s a highly subjective observation, but I do think you can pick up something about a young pitcher’s confidence by the way he acts out there. Aumont, by contrast, has put up a lot of zeroes in the box score, but I felt like his command issues are still there. Particularly yesterday, when he put a couple guys on with walks before striking out 2 and getting a popup. You could really see his frustration–he’s not confident in his command from outing to outing, or even batter to batter. I hope he pulls it together these next two weeks, but I think if the season started today it’d be Stutes, Horst and Cook–Cook not so much because he’s outperformed Valdes, but because of the concern over Halladay and the fact that he can walk if he’s not on the major league roster by March 25.

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  13. Ruf with two doubles today and seems to have found some comfort at the plate. In the field, he’s still a work in progress, but appears to be settling in some and apparently had a runner dead to rights at home this afternoon (but Quintero dropped the ball).

    Here’s my question. Is there a chance he makes this team? You’d think if they were truly resigned to starting him in the minors, they’d have sent him down by now instead of continuing to give him reps with the big club. I’m not saying I think it’s going to happen, but is it really a foregone conclusion that it’s not?

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    1. You are likely correct that the team is struggling with the final selections to make the team as 5th OF, IF backup who can handle SS, and the final, non-long-man reliever. I think the odds of Ruf making the team out of the gate are slim.

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    2. Ruf sealed his fate, with that bad Jose Canseco imitation in LF yesterday. He drove in one run, then turned around and gave 2 back, by knocking the ball over the fence, on basically routine play.

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      2. I agree. I don’t know how much he can possibly improve in half a season, but hopefully he makes some strides in AAA and earns a call up.

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