Two Weeks In…

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So, a full two weeks of Spring Training games have been played and to start the chatter, here is where I believe things would stand if the season started tomorrow:

Catchers(2): Kratz, Quintero. Ruiz serving his suspension

Infield(6): Howard, Utley, Rollins, Young, Frandsen, Galvis

Outfield: Brown, Revere, Mayberry, Nix, Young.  If Young is not ready for the start of the season, I see Pete Orr making the team, as he can play both the INF and OF and can run.  Ruf simply is too much of a defensive liability at this stage to make the team. He needs to play 50-60 consecutive games in LF in Lehigh Valley.

Starters: Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan

Relievers: Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Aumont, Diekman, Cook.

Stutes and DeFratus still have a legitimate shot to make up some ground  and knock out Cook, while Horst and Valdes could still easily overtake Diekman.  Joe Savery has yet to give up a run, but I saw just about enough of him at the major league level last year. 

Thoughts??

49 thoughts on “Two Weeks In…”

  1. I like the Pete Orr prediction. That would be a good choice. I haven’t seen anyone else suggest that. The Phillies’ bench is too Right Handed. They need at least 1 more LH pinch hitter, and depending on Ender Inciarte to be that 2nd LH pinch hitter would be a mistake. Pete Orr would help.

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  2. I think you Ruf comment is off-base. He hasn’t been that bad out there in left. If Pat Burrell can play out there, so can Ruf. It would be a shock if Ruf didn’t make the opening day lineup.
    Also, it’s obvious that you dislike Savery. I like to look at what a player has done for me lately, rather than ignore a good sping so far, just because you were frustrated with the way Savery pitched last year. After all, that is usually what Spring Training is all about. With limited big-league time, I don’t think you can just say Savery stinks, and he shouldn’t make the team.

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    1. I disagree. Just because Burrell played left does NOT mean Ruf can play left. Also, i disagree with the what has Savery done lately. The spring so far is a SSS and his overall body of work is not very impressive. I would easily take Horst or Deikman over Savery no matter what. I would personally give Horst the first shot since he pitched well all of last year and make Deikman really earn that spot by showing consistent control in AAA.

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    2. Have you actually seen Ruf play LF? If you did you would not have the opinion you have. He is going to need 50-60 games to build up his instincts and his reads.

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      1. I’ve been watching Ruf and he hasn’t looked good to my eyes. He hasn’t done much at the plate to offset that either. I’m not saying he won’t ever be able to play the position, but I think it’s best for him and the team that he learn it at Leigh Valley. With Brown doing everything necessary to lock up a starting spot, there isn’t as much up for grabs in the outfield as there would have been had he struggled.

        I don’t think it’s a disaster for Ruf if he doesn’t make the team out of spring training. If he hits like we know he can and shows that he can play left field adequately, he’ll be back.

        On D Young, I haven’t heard anything suggesting he’ll be ready to start the season. I will be really disappointed if he is starting in right field on opening day. Brown looks to have improved in the field and we know he has a cannon. There’s no reason not to try him in right again. If you have to play Delmon Young, at least stick him in left. He’ll suck at either corner so why waste Dom’s arm in left.

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    3. My Savery comments are based on watching him probably no less than than two dozen times live over the long term in AAA as well. I simply do not think he has major league stuff.

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      1. Phillies have a good deal of left-side pen arms. Bastardo, Horst, Valdes, Diekman. Savery needs to worry about fending off Jay Johnson as the org’s 5th lefty. Joe seems like a good guy but was one of those early round picks that seemed like a stretch from the get go. He’s probably better off in another organization right now where he might break camp on a less talented roster, particularly one with a lesser number of talented lefty-pen arms

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  3. Inciarte will be taken back by the d backs if not on the roster. Pete Orr can easily be replaced. If Ruf not ready keep inciarte up. Or if Ruf is playing he will need a late inning def replacement

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  4. Nice read Gregg. Peter Orr? Interesting thought

    I agree with most of your predictions including Ruf starting off at LV. Still, unless Ruf fails to hit at LV I still think he gets 100-150ABs with the big club during the year.

    The pen is probably where I’d differ the most. With some decisions to be based on future performance, predicting the final pen pieces is something of a futile exercise, a fun one nonetheless. I think most are probably in agreement that there are no less than three openings after Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, and Bastardo. I’m going to say that Horst is probably next safest. If he puts together a few good appearances in the final weeks, he should be in. I think Diekman and Valdes in a legitimate battle for a third lefty and De Fratus, Aumont and Stutes for the last arm in the pen. I can’t see a scenario here where Cook makes the team and I think he’ll probably have better value by keeping stretched out as a 7th starter down at LV.

    I’m still rooting for De Fratus to claim a job and wouldn’t mind seeing both he and Aumont beat out the third lefty

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  5. Ender Inciarte will make it over Orr. They have two bench guys that can play the infiield, they don’t need another. (actually, don’t be surprised if they scower the waiver wire for an OF bat that can play defense…it’s funny, Nate Sheirholtz (spelling?) would look pretty good on that bench right now.) I’m not a Nx fan. I’d like to see them find a similar player to Nix, then when Young gets activated decide between the new guy and Nix.

    I think Rufs bat will be fine, it is so early. In the next 3 weeks, I am sure he will hit. That said, I agree that he’ll go down to get more comfortable in the outfield.

    I agree with Cook as the long man. I think Diekman, De Fratus and Stutes start in AAA, leaving Horst and Valdez fighting for the second lefty spot. (Papplebon, Adams, Bastardo, Durbin, Aumont, Cook, Valdez or Horst….I’ll go Horst at this point. Although he started off poorly, an article mentioned how 26 of the 28 batters he faced were right handed. During the season, he won’t face many righties.

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  6. If they have an open spot on the 25-man roster Inciarte will get the job. They don’t have to offer Orr back and they have no need to play an infielder in the OF when they have plenty of backups in the IF already.

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    1. If they want Ender Inciarte, they don’t have to negatively effect the big club by placing on the roster in a useful spot. They can work out a deal for him.
      The Phillies are over loaded in catchers and AAAA pitching in the upper levels. The Diamondbacks are overloaded at CF in the upper levels, that is why Inciarte was left unprotected. I’d rather the Phillies trade a non-top 20, upper minors, prospect for him, than have Inciarte as the only LH bench bat on the team, on days when Nix starts in LF.

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      1. I would also rather have Inciarte in AA than stuck on the major league bench barely developing, so I’m all for trying to work out a trade with the D-backs. But how much of an upgrade would Pete Orr really be? He’s a pretty abysmal hitter in the majors and Inciarte is probably better in the OF and on the bases. I don’t think we’d be losing that much with Inciarte on the bench instead.

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        1. Pete Orr is nothing special, but he is a credible major league hitter against LH pitchers. In a SSS last year, Pete Orr hit .327 and had a .800 OPS against LH Pitchers.
          The way I see it, they will probably platoon Mayberry and Nix in LF at the beginning of the season. On days when Nix starts: What happens when they need to PH for the pitcher in a close game, and a RH pitcher is on the mound? Orr would be better than sending Mayberry or Galvis up.
          I’m not an Orr fan, but you need Left hand hitters on the bench for pinch hitting.

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          1. True about Orr’s performance last year, but it was such a small sample that I don’t know if we should really put any stock in it. His career numbers stink against righties too.

            Assuming Inciarte would be replacement level, or close to it, would you want to give up a prospect in our top 30 for one season of Pete Orr, just to make up whatever (probably under 1.0 WAR) difference in value between Orr and Inciarte? I’d rather have Inciarte on the bench and keep the extra prospect

            Of course, once Delmon Young comes back then it becomes a different discussion. Maybe, if he’s used right, Young would be enough of an improvement to justify losing the prospect to keep Inciarte, or just offer him back to Arizona, even though Young isn’t the LHB we need.

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            1. Willingness to give up a prospect for Inciarte, is a totally seperate issue. I don’t want Inciarte on the opening day roster at all, because he is a AA player and likely of no use right now. On the other hand, I like what I’ve seen of him, and I have no problem giving up something to get him.
              The presence of Orr, Ruf or whomever would’nt figure in my decision to keep Inciarte. The decision should be based solely on whether Inciarte is more valuable than whatever you have to give up to get him.

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            2. I agree with that. But in the event we can’t work out a trade with Arizona for him, I’d rather keep Inciarte on the roster than have Pete Orr and have to send Inciarte back to AZ.

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            3. Since Arizona exposed him to the Rule 5…why not offer them two of our Rule 5 guys for him? Castro and James!

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            4. I bet Inciarte makes the team and when D. Young is healthy Inciarte gets “hurt” and goes onto the DL.

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            5. You proba bly know this but he would have to stay on the roster next year if that happened. I would just as well trade a Rupp (calm down Brad) or Lino to keep Inciarte. If i could move James it would be nice but i don’t think the Value is there.

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      2. I think too much value is being placed on Pete Orr. He’s the 25th man on any below average major league team. I think the Philklies are stryving for more than that.

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  7. Anyone know anything about this D. Brown kid? Looks like he can really play some baseball.

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    1. He’s done alright in spring so far but he walks too much. Clearly he’s afraid to swing the bat and that’s going to catch up with him soon.

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  8. If Inciatre makes the opening day roster, do the phillies have to give up a draft pick or player in return? Anyway I see no reason he can’t stick around till D Young is ready to play. At that point can’t they send him down and he would be part of the Phillies system

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    1. No. They will have to send him back, when Delmon Young is ready to be placed on the 25 man roster.. They have to keep Inciarte on the 25 man roster all year. Or they work a deal with Arizona, to keep him.

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    2. If Inciarte makes the roster out of spring training and they need to make a move when D Young returns, I’m pretty sure Inciarte will come down with a strained groin muscle and be placed on the 15 day DL.

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  9. Don’t sleep on Yuniesky Betancourt making the opening day roster. There will be those here to tear apart his recent performance but the guy has dropped 15 pounds since last season and is covering ground he couldn’t in recent years. Frandsen has shown he can fill at both 2B and 3B. If the infield remains healthy, I can see Betancourt sitting on a Philly bench with Galvis playing every day in LV.

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    1. No way Galvis isn’t on the roster. Charlie loves his defense too much and he’s a real asset if he can play 3B as well. We’re going to want to get Young out of there if we have a slim lead going into the late innings, and Fransden is hardly Brooks Robinson out there. Plus Utley will need days off. I just do not see a Betancourt or Orr making the team ahead of Galvis, regardless of whether or not he needs some more at bats in AAA.

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      1. I agree. If he ends the year short of AB, they’ll send him to winter ball, which he likely intends to play anyway. ST, 250 AB in-season, plus winter ball will be plenty of AB. If somebody breaks down, he gets more than 250 AB.

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        1. My answer to goth of you on Betancourt is that the Phils knew what kind of fielder Galvis was before they signed Betancourt. Frandsen has performed well and in line with what he showed last year. I think Betancourt was signed for the same general reason they signed Delmon Young, each is a low cost/low risk guy who can provide some useful at bats and add some pop in the batting order. They’re veterans and that doesn’t hurt their stock with Charlie. Betancourt and D. Young on the roster means that the Phils are buying time for youngsters to get seasoning in AAA. Betancourt has not disappointed with his play and I think, as an observer and not as any particular fan of his, he has a shot to make the 25 man.

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  10. I just can’t believe that someone with the kind of arm rosenberg has, cant get guys out. quess he is just a thrower,verus being a pitcher, guys with way less,can get guys out, like a kenrick and this kid just keeps getting bombed. amazing to me.

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      1. BJ lacks the command to be in the majors. He needs to take a couple of ticks of his FB and control it in the strike zone much better than he does. He’s shoulder might be a reason for the bad outing today, but it sure doesn’t excuse many of his bad performances last year.

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    2. He is ScotT Mathieson. Nice speed on FB but it is too straight to be effective against big league hitters. Especially when his other offerings are not +, and his makeup and command look to be average.

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  11. There is no way Ruf makes this team out of ST! Why would he? He needs to play everyday and get the ABs, which isnt going to happen on the big club. I like Inciarte also, but I cant seem them having to keep him on the roster all year, so I also see them working out a deal to keep him, unless his old club doesnt want him back. The Xfactor could be Betancourt, because I think Galvis needs to play everyday for awhile in LV.

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  12. A couple notes on above:

    1. I don’t see Cook in Philadelphia either. They’ll piece the “long” responisibilities together, then shuttle whomever is pitching the best–and who’s turn it is–from LHV: could be Lopez or Cook or Cloyd or Pettibone (or even Morgan as the season goes) for “long” responsibilities or spot starts. If they need an arm for a night it could be whomever is the last Pen guy cut/doing best: Stutes or DeFratus or Diek or Horst or Valdes or even Friend.

    2. Ender can’t go on DL. Not right away anyway. I remember reading that he has to be active a certain number of days. If we get into August and need that roster spot, then it’s a possiblility. In other words, I think Arizona gets to take him back injured or not if they want.

    3. The poster above is correct: Yuni is cheap insurance. But mostly I see him as insurance against injury rather than inexperience. If all are healthy, he’ll be given his release on, I think it’s, 3/26. He has an early opt-out. I’d love to have Galvis at LHV so that I can watch him every day, but the fact is he’s playing too well and Charlie will fight to keep him.

    4. Delmon Young date is mid-April I heard. So he starts on the DL and does a rehab at LHV during the Bison series 4/19-4/22. Just a guess.

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    1. You are correct. Inciarte must remain on the active roster for 90 days this season to satisfy the requirements of the rule 5 draft.

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  14. Worst OF in mlb. Cutting Schierholtz was just another amaro screwup. He has ruined this organization from the top (howard/papelbon contracts) down.

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  15. I wouldnt go that far. Revere had one error last year and brown is an average defender, mayberry would do an ok job

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  17. I fought Keith Law and Keith Law won. I wish I weren’t the first one to make that joke. ANYWAYS… I understand that Ruf is having a tough spring training.. That just means that he is DUE. It does the Phillies no good to platoon Nix and Mayberry. We know what they are: bench players. Let Ruf get his chance at the major league level while Delmon Is on the shelf and let his get his chance. Can it hurt?

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    1. Yes. It can hurt. Mayberry and Nix are proven bench players. Ruf hasn’t proved he is as good as either player. Just because a player dominates AA, it doesn’t prove he will be able to handle the major leagues. He has to show something, to get a chance.
      Remember Michael Taylor? He dominated AA, in the same manner as Ruf. He hasn’t been able to do anything in the major leagues, and until last year (3 years later) was just OK in AAA.
      But you are right, Ruf is due (at least at the plate) and he has enough time to make an impression. But after his performance defensively, I’m not sure he can hit enough, to make them give him a shot out of camp.
      The biggest thing going against Ruf (other than his own performance) is Mayberry doesn’t have options left. Ruf has options. There is no need or room, for yet another Right Handed bat, on this bench.

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