Adam Morgan goes the distance today, giving up 3 singles and walking none, while striking out 9 in 8 innings. His two runs allowed “earned” him a loss.
Morgan making good progress; could move up a level before season’s end. ETA: ’13 sometime? Meanwhile he could have risen to within our top 10.
Also: welcome back DeFratus. May see him up after trading deadline moves are made.
Caution: Asche has been looking better at the place; defense: not so much–made his 8th error since arriving at Reading. BUT…fielding can be learned; hitting less so.
Brown 2 hits today. May come up by mid-August, allowing him to become fully comfortable with his new stroke before the move up.
It would seem to be a regular thing with the Phils minor leaguers at this point – especially after Jiwan James “slight of hand” catch a few weeks back – I still can’t figure that one out
Oh, you think Philly is going to trade away some relief pitchers and other teams will snap them up. DeFratus- I say he should just re-establish after the injury, finish up the season and maybe some Arizona Fall League.
2 LVIP games yesterday, looks like only one seen.
I expect the big club will option someone to get DeFratus up as soon as he looks ready. Big league innings with no pressure for a young guy with promise is a good thing.
I’ve been really excited about him as a prospect since he signed, and bless him he hasn’t let me down. He and Biddle are my two favorite pitching prospects to follow (I get especially excited about lefties with strikeout stuff, you see).
His overall K:BB ratio is flat out the most impressive aspect of his season, IMHO. As a pitcher, there are only a few things you can control — and what Morgan can control, he does well.
Hadn’t seen this before. Pretty impressive for those guys to get national pub like that . . . it means the scouting is lining up with the results, which is a nice thing to see. And this was a month *before* Morgan’s hot streak.
Still probably not a top 5 guy for me (this is only one season of results in a pitcher-friendly league), but definitely in the picture for top 10, which I wouldn’t have predicted going into the season. Nice find by the front office (who are terrible at drafting, or so we so often hear).
Honestly.. i get Austin Wright and Adam Morgan confused on the reg. 2 SEC lefthanders. Is 1 considered better than the other or do they both have similar stuff?
And Morgan was picked a few rounds ahead of Wright in the 2011 draft, if that’s any indication of the scouting from college. Wright moved up in the system last year with a really good season in WIL, but Morgan wasn’t far behind and double jumped this spring to catch up to Wright. Gord Helemueler (I spelled that wrong, I think), mentioned both in the same breath a few months back when talking with I think Jay Floyd from PhoulBallz. Anyone have the old link to that one?
At this point I think you’ve gotta say Morgan is the better prospect based on performance. I read awhile back that Wright throws harder but Morgan’s secondary stuff is further along. In terms of ceiling I don’t really know who comes out ahead but it’s probably close.
It is good that May is seeing a psychologist. Both Halladay and Carlton improved their command greatly after doing this. To be able to have great command consistently has to be the most difficult skill to master. Psychological insights can help greatly. More players should take advantage of this.
Just saw a tweet from the Blueclaws saying Chris Nichols and Willie Carmona just got called up to Lakewood. Which would mean either 2 players moving elsewhere you’d think. Maybe a move for Morgan is possible.
Carmona we’ve all seen was going to be moved up but now they’re sending up 2 guys to Lakewood. Anyone know if they’re under the roster limit or if they have to send someone elsewhere?
Maybe they can trade Blanton to the Cardinals and get the other Tyler Greene.
Yeah, this one’s got a high strikeout rate. I looked at the Anthony Hewitt strikeout rates and it always seemed to stabilize at around the 33% rate, and sometimes at the 36% rate. Don’t think ever this high. Domingo Santana, maybe.
He’s still just 18… (can’t believe i’m defending him as I have never been a fan)… though I agree that K rate is probably the worst sign a batter can have. I’ll take no power, low average and no walks any day over that level of k rate.
I wonder if there’s a bit of mental fatigue at this point. He struggled most of the time in Lakewood and now Williamsport as well. Not that I’m trying to diagnose him with anything, but pressing the reset button next year might do him some good. The k-rate is concerning but he’s too young to write off yet.
Also we don’t necessarily know he’s not made an adjustment to his swing that just didn’t work for him, or not properly made an adjustment they want him to. Writing him off at this point is a bit of an overreaction, IMO.
Wow, Adam Morgan pitched 7 and 1/3 perfect innings last night. The perfect game was broken up by three consecutive singles and a winning run scoring force out that could have been an inning ending DP.
I was at the R-Phils game last night. I’m a bit busy on vacation, so I only have a moment to write, but here are my quick impressions.
Hollands – a herky-jerky, big lefty, but without dominating stuff. Throws 88-92 (I am assuming the Reading gun is about 1 MPH slow, which I think is accurate), but sits around 90. Can break off a nice curveball at times, but appears to be nothing special. His upside is probably as a middle reliever. Borderline big leaguer at best.
Hernandez – I saw him in early May and came away with the same impressions this time. This kid can really field his position. He is quick and turns the double play well. At bat, he he constantly makes good contact and, despite the lack of walks, seems good at picking out his pitches. He is small (both in height and overall stature), but he can smack the ball. If he develop a little power (8-10 homers, 35 doubles) and a little more patience, he could turn into a very good player. But what I love about this kid is what I like about Galvis – he is a very well rounded baseball player.
Ruf – All Darin Ruf does is smack line drives all over the place. He can also draw a walk. This guy has the bat to be a big league player, but his ability to hit for power and field a position well, will determine how far he can go. I love watching him play.
Knigge – has very good velocity – sits around 92-95 MPH (again, assuming Reading gun is 1 MPH slow). Velocity tails off after an inning – he is a true reliever, not a starter in waiting. He struggles with command and obviously lacks a good breaking pitch. His change-up is okay, but seems to bounce the harder breaking ball in the dirt (not sure if it is a curve, slider or splitter). Needs work on off speed stuff and command. Intriguing upside.
Valle – always looks good, rarely fooled at the plate. Did not hit the ball hard, but did a GREAT job hitting the ball where it was pitched, which shows great plate awareness and discipline of some type. There’s a lot to like, but, yeah, he’s got to start drawing some walks because none of his other talents are plus level (some are above average, but nothing extraordinary, at least not yet).
Castro – the reports on him seem right. He can square up and drive a baseball extremely well (including to the opposite field), but, like Valle, he has issues with walks (not the sort of thing you see in person). Is on the smaller side, but appears to be strong.
Asche (yes, it’s pronounced ASH-ee) – seems rough in the field. He let a grounder go under his legs and bobbled another ball momentarily before making a play. He’s never going to be Mike Schmidt or Scott Rolen at third, that’s for sure. At the plate, he looked pretty good. He was fooled by a hard throwing lefty early, but seemed to adjust and hit a nice single to the outfield. He also seemed disciplined and drew a walk later on in the game. But he plays the game the right way, hustles like hell, and shows good speed (Utley-type speed) and base running instincts. Before the game, my son was asking one of the clubhouse about the players the guy raved about how Cody Asche gets to the ballpark earlier than anyone, including the people working the office. He shows up at 8 a.m. or earlier and hits and works the entire day. This is consistent with things we’ve been hearing. In any event, you heard it here first, this guy is going to be up with the club by the end of 2013 and he’s going to be a Phillie for a long time. Get used to hearing about him – he’s a keeper.
Thanks for the report, as far as near MLB talent, I’m excited about Ruf, Asche, Hernandez and Brown, you’ve covered 3 of them. (not to miss out on the morgan bandwagon but he’s still in high A) Thank you sir!
Anyone know anything about the 21 yr old SF catcher rumored to be the player for Hunter Pence ? They better get more than this guy for Pence after giving up Cosart and Singleton .
He’s a solid catching prospect. Similar to Valle, though I’d put him a touch above Valle offensively, a touch below defensively. Projects better plate discipline. Was ranked 2nd through 5th in various preseason publications. Likely top 150 kind of talent. Might be the highest “preseason ranked” guy that could come back, but SF has 1-2 pitchers that might have passed him into the top 100-125 that would be ranked higher at end of season, and could potentially be part of the deal.
2) He only just turned 21 a few days ago, and is in AA. His BB and K rates are decent, power could use an uptick but he is young and has power potential. Oh, and he’s a catcher.
3) I agree that we don’t need another C prospect, but I believe that if this type of trade went through, it would signal that one of these C’s are being moved in another deal.
Since when doesn;t batting average matter ? Isn’t it a sign of what type of offensive potential a player has ? If Chooch batted .240 this year does he make the all atar team soley based on his defense ?
It’s not that batting average doesn’t matter. It’s that it’s only a small part of evaluating a player and you need context to go with it, like any stat. It’s not the most important stat, but last time I checked it was still good to get hits in baseball.
I agree with that statement . Its a part of evaluating a player . Jmb4028 said BA doesn’t matter . Is so , someone should tell MLB to remove it as part of the triple crown .
Oh well because its part of the Triple Crown clearly means its a valid and meaningful stat.
Last time I checked, pitching “Wins” was part of the Pitcher’s Triple Crown and I don’t think anyone would argue that Wins is a metric in which to measure a pitcher’s performance. Of course if you would, then that’s an entirely different story.
Its not that it doesn’t matter – its just a flawed metric that needs to be used with OBP & Slugging % in order to draw a more detailed picture. It’s why the “triple slash stat line” and OPS have become so popular in evaluating players.
Two issues here: first of all, as a performance metric, BA is significant, but less so than casual fans believe. OBP and SLG are both more important.
But, as a predictive stat for minor league players, it is even less important. Much less so. This is true for a variety of reasons, including the fact that it takes so long – about 2 seasons of AB – for BA to have much predictive significance. Ks, BBs, and HR all attain predictive significance much more quickly.
No one said Valle is the second coming either. We have Chooch for at least 2–3 yrs but have no 3b prospect in the system . If they move Pence they need to get either a ML ready middle reliever or a AAA 3B prospect in my opinion .Also didn’t they get a hot shot young C in the Thome deal ?
Pence for a BP arm a year after giving up 4 players to get him? Sorry, at that price you keep him and let him play out his deal and take the draft pick. That’s not a pennies on the dollar return, that’s no return at all.
Why do otherwise sensible people continue to propagate absolutely false statements? An asset has whatever value it has, regardless of what it cost to obtain. It doesn’t matter whether the asset is Hunter Pence, pumpkin futures or a house. Your house is worth what you can get for it this month, not what the government wants its cut of.
What is the 2012 stretch drive and the right pay Hunter Pence 13 million dollars it 2013 worth? That’s it. period. As a red-blooded Phillies fan I wish it were worth Mike Trout, but wishes won’t make it so.
I’m not saying give Hunter Pence away, but to the Phillies, to our good fortune, there is an opportunity cost to paying him however much next year. It’s possible that they can use that money for another player or players that can bring more wins in return. And if we could get one major league ready position player who can produce next year for the ML minimum, that would really help us contend in 2013, and so much the better. Whatever happens, I hope Ruben makes a better decision than he did last year.
But at the same time, remember that if Hunter Pence was parading down Broad Street last fall, Ruben would be hailed as a genius, a reminder to the wise that things are not always as they appear . . .
As noted philosopher Michael Vick stated on Piers Morgan tonight: “life is 90% perception, 10% reality”
There’s quite a lot of distance between a bullpen arm and what the phillies gave up. Certainly wouldn’t expect them to get as much as they gave up, but I would think they’d get as more than they got for 1/3 of a year of Vic – bullpen arm and possible starting pitcher.
Tommy Joseph report by Jon Mayo:
Joseph was drafted out of high school largely for his bat, and his power potential started to show up consistently in games in 2011, when he finished second in the system in RBIs (95) and tied for third in homers (22). If he can improve his plate discipline, he has the ability to be an even better all-around hitter. Many felt Joseph was destined to move to first base, but he played well behind the plate last year and now looks like he could stick there. Next up: the challenge of the upper levels of the system. He missed almost two weeks with concussion symptoms after being hit by a batter’s backswing, but returned to Double-A Richmond in late May.
Well then a comp with Valle would give us a clear pix of the guy…..’he is in AA right now, so we don’t really have to project anything. Just look at them. Leagues are fairly similar’
I went to the Lakewood game yesterday. This was my second game in the past 3 weeks. My thoughts:
– Arias surprised me. I didn’t think he was much of a prospect before the game. But he throws very hard. He sat 93-95 all game. Hit 95 many times. And got a fair amount of swings and misses with his breaking pitch. A few swinging Ks were on pitches that broke into the dirt. So must have been good movement. I couldn’t see from the 3b line whether it was a curve or slider. He also handled a bad break early in the game when Dugan dropped a routine fly ball bc he lost it in the sun. Kept his composure
– Duffy looked very patient at the plate. I was very impressed with his walk in the first inning.
– Dugan on the other hand did not look patient. He swings out of his shoes every pitch.
– I sure hope that Lino learns to hit because he looks great behind the plate. I know he has a bunch of past balls, but that is not telling. He had a great plate block for an out (did that in the other game I saw too). He has a very strong arm. Also a very accurate arm. He is a very big guy too. Looks like a presence behind the plate. Not sure he will ever be able to hit enough, but I hope that he does, because his defense is steller.
– Carver needs to hit the gym. Looks like the pitch can hit the bat out of his hands.
– Franco did not look good in the field or the plate. They dropped two bunts his way and he didn’t make either play. Looked very stiff charging the ball and throwing. He still looks lost to me at the plate too.
Thanks for the report. Interesting about Arias- he’s old for Lakewood, was a reliever most of the time, and gives up a lot of hits. But his strikeout totals are solid. Probably not much of a prospect but guys who throw hard are always worth having around.
OK thia is WAY late but just wanted to respond to the comment someone made earlier saying the Phils “didn’t know how to draft”. I really don’t want to be an apologist but in this same thread you have someone’s top 120 and the Phils are responsible for 6 of them. Pure basic math (number of teams, 120 slots) means the Phillies are definitely above average. Add to that the fact that we’ve been good for quite some time, which means drafting at the tail end of all the rounds, and I have to say I can’t think you can knock the Phils for this. I think we forget what we gave away sometimes (though reminded when they make their major league debut – like Gose has done:) ) but I think some folks need to take a breath and look at that.
Adding to that I think we’re all fairly excited about this year and last year’s draft crop – so far. I for one am looking forward to when BA starts putting out league to 20’s to see if the “outside world” thinks like we do.
Agree with you. Take the Nationals….they have drafted at the top or near the top the last 6/7 years running, They better be this good. Same with Pirates, and it was that way for the Rays from 2000 through 2008. And I might add, the Phillies rarely gave out the $M bonus money to Latin players like the Yankees, Braves , Rangers et al do. Have to give the Philadelphia organization and their scouts credit.
And the Nats, very similar to the Pittsburgh Penguins, were not just bad but bad in the right years. Strasburg and Harper? Total no-brainers. You’d be lucky to be in a position to draft a player like that once in franchise history. Of course, they’ve done well with their other recent 1st rounders too.
Brown and Hernandez in Kevin Goldsteins 10 Pack. Goldstein continued his stance that Brown is ready and the Phil’s are holding him back. He mentions that Hernandez is real prospect who is a definite big leaguer who should be ready about the time utley’s contract ends. Goldstein does have a noted like of small 2B who can hit.
In the comments I brought up Morgan, Goldstein says he will have more information but that the results don’t quite match the stuff but there is good stuff there. A definite prospect but not a top prospect which I read as #3 upside not a 1 or 2, which still seems good.
I’ve seen Goldstein tweet at least once that Morgan’s upside is a “back-end starter.” He certainly looks to me like he could be a 3 or 4, but what do I know?
I’ve asked this question to Ben Badler on at least 6 occasions in the past month. He instead decides to respond to tweets about middling low-A shortstops like he has a fetish for them. My next tweet might be something along the lines of “If Adam Morgan actually throws 8 perfect innings next game, will he get a mention?”
im assuming Badler is just answering questions he has answers for. Unlike Goldstein who has never seen any of the players hes talking about and going off of scouting reports that are 2 years old.
And he relies on two year old scouting reports? I couldn’t care less how many players the guy personally sees. He talks to scouts CONSTANTLY. They tell him what to think. I’ll rely on him and his living room scouting over anyone on this site and THEIR living room scouting.
I’m not going to write a lot about Schoop because I think its highly highly unlikely that we get him for Blanton. Suffice to say, I’d be fine with giving up Blanton and Vic for him. Be happy if we get him, and if it happens I’ll (and I’m sure others) will be able to write more.
Meh, I guess maybe. I frankly would be surprised and happy if we end up with a single top 100 prospect for either, so getting one for both is fine with me.
It completely depends on how much salary we’d be eating. If its a pure salary dump for both, we’d be lucky to get a bag of balls and some mud to rub them down. If we’re paying the bulk of it, we should get a couple decent pieces or one good piece back.
Yeah, that combined with the stenographers (err, reporters) talking about five or six teams in on Blanton is cracking me up. Credit to RAJ for having the balls to pretend anybody would give a prospect like Schoop up for Heavy B. Phils will be lucky to get a middle relief prospect.
(Now watch as he trades Blanton for Travis D’Arnaud.)
I wouldn’t have thought we’d get two decent prospects for Thome. A lot of the returns for so-so veterans this year has surprised me. It just seems like a good year to be a seller.
I expect they’ll give us nearly nothing in exchange for paying his $3 million in remaining salary. That might be enough to keep us under the Luxury Tax in 2012…which is a fair trade.
It is. But can’t knock Amaro for trying to play the press for more. Just can’t imagine anybody’s gonna fall for that. (Ed Wade’s not a GM anymore, Rube!)
Ben Badler @BenBadler
Writing him up for BA this week. Very advanced bat and glove for his age RT @owaistabish What do you think of Carlos Tocci’s numbers so far?
Tocci: at age 16 it is startling that he can–admittedly in just a few games and ABs–take the field in pro games and NOT be at a loss at bat, etc. That he is playing CF, one of the 4 essentials, is a bonus. Should he fulfill the FO high expectations (and generous signing bonu$), he could turn out to be an exceptional player…
…but that is at least 4-5 seasons away. Very much worth following as most here will do.
Yeah, it’s sobering to think that at his age I was reading “The Scarlet Letter” and wondering if I should quit marching band. (I did, and it was a good decision.)
Why are we on this site giving away, victorino, blanton, for nothing. to shed money? they can afford to pay these guys, the way they draw,and a new tv deal is on its way. that shedding salary is for teams like pirates, marlins, kc. this team doesnt get a good prospect for victorino then you keep him and offer him arb. he is too valuable to give away, blanton is coming off three good starts, and i would never just give him away to shed salary, crazy. the california angels got geineke and did you see the stands on his first start sunday, half empty. the idea we have to shed salary is not the way the phillies should be thinking, if it means giving away players, rather wait until august waiver deal time and try then.This right now is a waiting game to see who will step up and give us something for some nice players, I cant believe pierre cant help a team. or blanton, or victorino, pence, so hopefully ruben has some patience and holds out.If blanton goes for another org filler it is the dumbest thing we can do,even pierre should bring us a decent a ball prospect.or they stay.
Morgan making good progress; could move up a level before season’s end. ETA: ’13 sometime? Meanwhile he could have risen to within our top 10.
Also: welcome back DeFratus. May see him up after trading deadline moves are made.
Caution: Asche has been looking better at the place; defense: not so much–made his 8th error since arriving at Reading. BUT…fielding can be learned; hitting less so.
Brown 2 hits today. May come up by mid-August, allowing him to become fully comfortable with his new stroke before the move up.
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Actually 3 hits for Brown, in 2 games. Including a run and an RBI, plus time at all three outfield positions.
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Add a Sportscenter Top 10 diving catch in left.
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How often do you see a minor league catch on sportscenter.
One way or another Ruben must of called in a favor. lol
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It would seem to be a regular thing with the Phils minor leaguers at this point – especially after Jiwan James “slight of hand” catch a few weeks back – I still can’t figure that one out
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Agreed Art. De Fratus is such a welcome sight. Expect to see him with the big club though he’ll probably continue with a light workload thru EOS.
As for Brown, how bout Wednesday? As in Aug 1st?
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Oh, you think Philly is going to trade away some relief pitchers and other teams will snap them up. DeFratus- I say he should just re-establish after the injury, finish up the season and maybe some Arizona Fall League.
2 LVIP games yesterday, looks like only one seen.
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I expect the big club will option someone to get DeFratus up as soon as he looks ready. Big league innings with no pressure for a young guy with promise is a good thing.
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Defensive reports weren’t that great about Asche coming out of college. If he has to move off 3rd eventually that’s a bummer. Hopefully he avoids it.
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I think Adam Morgan might be pushing top 5 in our system. He has done nothing but impress since signing.
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I’ve been really excited about him as a prospect since he signed, and bless him he hasn’t let me down. He and Biddle are my two favorite pitching prospects to follow (I get especially excited about lefties with strikeout stuff, you see).
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The next Cliff Lee.
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I agree…he is top 5 now.
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i am not sure which was his most impressive stat:
– His 11-1 groundball to flyball ratio, or
– His 9-0 K/walk ratio
both extremely impressive
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His overall K:BB ratio is flat out the most impressive aspect of his season, IMHO. As a pitcher, there are only a few things you can control — and what Morgan can control, he does well.
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I see Morgan as top 5. So many of the other pitchers seem to have regressed, especially lately.
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There really is no question he is top 5 at this moment. Sickels had him 3rd, before he went on this tear in July.
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Source?
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Probably http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/7/2/3130761/top-120-prospect-list-for-2012-midseason-revision-update, which he listed his midseason top 120 plus those “under consideration”. Biddle and May made the list, with Asche and Morgan is his ‘consideration’ list.
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Hadn’t seen this before. Pretty impressive for those guys to get national pub like that . . . it means the scouting is lining up with the results, which is a nice thing to see. And this was a month *before* Morgan’s hot streak.
Still probably not a top 5 guy for me (this is only one season of results in a pitcher-friendly league), but definitely in the picture for top 10, which I wouldn’t have predicted going into the season. Nice find by the front office (who are terrible at drafting, or so we so often hear).
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Who do you have higher?
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Trevor Mays skills continue to impress and improve……..
….as a DJ…
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I got a hearty laugh out of that, thnks. Good screenname as well
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If Morgan doesn’t get a promotion within the next week the organization just isn’t being fair. There is nothing left for him to do in Clearwater.
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Honestly.. i get Austin Wright and Adam Morgan confused on the reg. 2 SEC lefthanders. Is 1 considered better than the other or do they both have similar stuff?
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Morgan is considered the better prospect.
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And Morgan was picked a few rounds ahead of Wright in the 2011 draft, if that’s any indication of the scouting from college. Wright moved up in the system last year with a really good season in WIL, but Morgan wasn’t far behind and double jumped this spring to catch up to Wright. Gord Helemueler (I spelled that wrong, I think), mentioned both in the same breath a few months back when talking with I think Jay Floyd from PhoulBallz. Anyone have the old link to that one?
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At this point I think you’ve gotta say Morgan is the better prospect based on performance. I read awhile back that Wright throws harder but Morgan’s secondary stuff is further along. In terms of ceiling I don’t really know who comes out ahead but it’s probably close.
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It is good that May is seeing a psychologist. Both Halladay and Carlton improved their command greatly after doing this. To be able to have great command consistently has to be the most difficult skill to master. Psychological insights can help greatly. More players should take advantage of this.
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Hypnotists can also help. Psychologist + hypnotist + 95 mph velo = Cy Young.
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Just saw a tweet from the Blueclaws saying Chris Nichols and Willie Carmona just got called up to Lakewood. Which would mean either 2 players moving elsewhere you’d think. Maybe a move for Morgan is possible.
Carmona we’ve all seen was going to be moved up but now they’re sending up 2 guys to Lakewood. Anyone know if they’re under the roster limit or if they have to send someone elsewhere?
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There were many moves made yesterday that ended up in the 7/29 thread.
Carmona to LWD
Nichols to LWD
Giles to CLW
Simon to REA
Duffy to CLW
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Phillies roster has Carmona listed at 185 lbs., looks a little bigger. Stonybrooke has him listed at 220lbs. ?
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Valle slowly continues to bring the average up. .261 with 13 homers (I think) is pretty decent. Even took a pinch hit BB the other day
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Dude gotta get on base more. Can’t be a major league player with that OBP.
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Catchers can
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Catchers can, but the OBP still really limits his value.
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I’m not about that.
.281 obp in AA isn’t going to translate very well to the Major Leagues… or triple A.
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Sometimes, as when Burrell signed his big deal, the only cure for a season gone awfully bad is winter.
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Three more strike-outs for Tyler Greene (in 3 AB). His K rate for 2012 is now a smooth 42%. Yikes,
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It is become a humbling season for Tyler Greene.
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I think its safe to write him off. Nobody who flails like that has much of a shot.
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Maybe they can trade Blanton to the Cardinals and get the other Tyler Greene.
Yeah, this one’s got a high strikeout rate. I looked at the Anthony Hewitt strikeout rates and it always seemed to stabilize at around the 33% rate, and sometimes at the 36% rate. Don’t think ever this high. Domingo Santana, maybe.
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He’s still just 18… (can’t believe i’m defending him as I have never been a fan)… though I agree that K rate is probably the worst sign a batter can have. I’ll take no power, low average and no walks any day over that level of k rate.
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Tyler Greene is not 18. Born 12/1/1992. You may be thinking of Zach Green who is 18 years old.
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Saw all 3 K’s yesterday, half hearted swing on one, swing and miss by a mile on another
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He did have a large extraordinary fan favorite following on this website last summer.
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I’m guilty as charged, i was wrong…at least so far.
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I wonder if there’s a bit of mental fatigue at this point. He struggled most of the time in Lakewood and now Williamsport as well. Not that I’m trying to diagnose him with anything, but pressing the reset button next year might do him some good. The k-rate is concerning but he’s too young to write off yet.
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Also we don’t necessarily know he’s not made an adjustment to his swing that just didn’t work for him, or not properly made an adjustment they want him to. Writing him off at this point is a bit of an overreaction, IMO.
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Hey aren’t you suppose to be on vacation, we are not paying you any overtime! Enjoy tomorrow night Nats game.
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Wow, Adam Morgan pitched 7 and 1/3 perfect innings last night. The perfect game was broken up by three consecutive singles and a winning run scoring force out that could have been an inning ending DP.
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Yawn … Darin Ruf another double, homerun, 2 RBI, run scored , walk.
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Sorry. My mistake. The double and HR were on Saturday. Yesterday he only had two doubles.
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I was at the R-Phils game last night. I’m a bit busy on vacation, so I only have a moment to write, but here are my quick impressions.
Hollands – a herky-jerky, big lefty, but without dominating stuff. Throws 88-92 (I am assuming the Reading gun is about 1 MPH slow, which I think is accurate), but sits around 90. Can break off a nice curveball at times, but appears to be nothing special. His upside is probably as a middle reliever. Borderline big leaguer at best.
Hernandez – I saw him in early May and came away with the same impressions this time. This kid can really field his position. He is quick and turns the double play well. At bat, he he constantly makes good contact and, despite the lack of walks, seems good at picking out his pitches. He is small (both in height and overall stature), but he can smack the ball. If he develop a little power (8-10 homers, 35 doubles) and a little more patience, he could turn into a very good player. But what I love about this kid is what I like about Galvis – he is a very well rounded baseball player.
Ruf – All Darin Ruf does is smack line drives all over the place. He can also draw a walk. This guy has the bat to be a big league player, but his ability to hit for power and field a position well, will determine how far he can go. I love watching him play.
Knigge – has very good velocity – sits around 92-95 MPH (again, assuming Reading gun is 1 MPH slow). Velocity tails off after an inning – he is a true reliever, not a starter in waiting. He struggles with command and obviously lacks a good breaking pitch. His change-up is okay, but seems to bounce the harder breaking ball in the dirt (not sure if it is a curve, slider or splitter). Needs work on off speed stuff and command. Intriguing upside.
Valle – always looks good, rarely fooled at the plate. Did not hit the ball hard, but did a GREAT job hitting the ball where it was pitched, which shows great plate awareness and discipline of some type. There’s a lot to like, but, yeah, he’s got to start drawing some walks because none of his other talents are plus level (some are above average, but nothing extraordinary, at least not yet).
Castro – the reports on him seem right. He can square up and drive a baseball extremely well (including to the opposite field), but, like Valle, he has issues with walks (not the sort of thing you see in person). Is on the smaller side, but appears to be strong.
Asche (yes, it’s pronounced ASH-ee) – seems rough in the field. He let a grounder go under his legs and bobbled another ball momentarily before making a play. He’s never going to be Mike Schmidt or Scott Rolen at third, that’s for sure. At the plate, he looked pretty good. He was fooled by a hard throwing lefty early, but seemed to adjust and hit a nice single to the outfield. He also seemed disciplined and drew a walk later on in the game. But he plays the game the right way, hustles like hell, and shows good speed (Utley-type speed) and base running instincts. Before the game, my son was asking one of the clubhouse about the players the guy raved about how Cody Asche gets to the ballpark earlier than anyone, including the people working the office. He shows up at 8 a.m. or earlier and hits and works the entire day. This is consistent with things we’ve been hearing. In any event, you heard it here first, this guy is going to be up with the club by the end of 2013 and he’s going to be a Phillie for a long time. Get used to hearing about him – he’s a keeper.
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Thanks for the report, as far as near MLB talent, I’m excited about Ruf, Asche, Hernandez and Brown, you’ve covered 3 of them. (not to miss out on the morgan bandwagon but he’s still in high A) Thank you sir!
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Just announced in Clearwater…Duffy up, Giles up, Simon & Colvin to Reading, Morgado and LaFrenz activated off the DL, and Barnes released
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Can’t wait to see how Duffy does…
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+1
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Anyone know anything about the 21 yr old SF catcher rumored to be the player for Hunter Pence ? They better get more than this guy for Pence after giving up Cosart and Singleton .
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All i know is he plays in AA and he was in the Futures Game this year
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He’s a solid catching prospect. Similar to Valle, though I’d put him a touch above Valle offensively, a touch below defensively. Projects better plate discipline. Was ranked 2nd through 5th in various preseason publications. Likely top 150 kind of talent. Might be the highest “preseason ranked” guy that could come back, but SF has 1-2 pitchers that might have passed him into the top 100-125 that would be ranked higher at end of season, and could potentially be part of the deal.
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Thanks but if he is only hitting .260 @ AA can’t get too exicited. We need a 3B prospect not a catcher with Valle in the system.
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1) Batting average doesn’t matter.
2) He only just turned 21 a few days ago, and is in AA. His BB and K rates are decent, power could use an uptick but he is young and has power potential. Oh, and he’s a catcher.
3) I agree that we don’t need another C prospect, but I believe that if this type of trade went through, it would signal that one of these C’s are being moved in another deal.
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Since when doesn;t batting average matter ? Isn’t it a sign of what type of offensive potential a player has ? If Chooch batted .240 this year does he make the all atar team soley based on his defense ?
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PP describes it better than I could in this small space: https://phuturephillies.com/prospectprimer/my-prospect-philosophy/
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It’s not that batting average doesn’t matter. It’s that it’s only a small part of evaluating a player and you need context to go with it, like any stat. It’s not the most important stat, but last time I checked it was still good to get hits in baseball.
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I agree with that statement . Its a part of evaluating a player . Jmb4028 said BA doesn’t matter . Is so , someone should tell MLB to remove it as part of the triple crown .
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Oh well because its part of the Triple Crown clearly means its a valid and meaningful stat.
Last time I checked, pitching “Wins” was part of the Pitcher’s Triple Crown and I don’t think anyone would argue that Wins is a metric in which to measure a pitcher’s performance. Of course if you would, then that’s an entirely different story.
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Fine, I’ll ammend that to be “its a very, very small part of evaluating a player”.
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It’s useless.
OBP > BA
Who’s the better player? The guy hitting .280 with a .330 OBP or the guy hitting .280 with a .400 obp?
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Its not that it doesn’t matter – its just a flawed metric that needs to be used with OBP & Slugging % in order to draw a more detailed picture. It’s why the “triple slash stat line” and OPS have become so popular in evaluating players.
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Batting is in the triple slash line out of nostalgia. OBP and SLG strictly dominate it.
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Should be “batting average.”
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Exactly.
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Two issues here: first of all, as a performance metric, BA is significant, but less so than casual fans believe. OBP and SLG are both more important.
But, as a predictive stat for minor league players, it is even less important. Much less so. This is true for a variety of reasons, including the fact that it takes so long – about 2 seasons of AB – for BA to have much predictive significance. Ks, BBs, and HR all attain predictive significance much more quickly.
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‘…..predictive significance much more quickly’, not a good sign, then for Tyler Greene when it comes to K%.
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Well yes. But then the other factor their is age/experience. He could still turn it around.
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No, he makes it because his offensive numbers are: .342/ .407/ .569 with an OPS of .976
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“Thanks but if he is only hitting .260 @ AA can’t get too exicited.” Hey isn’t that Valle’s batting average?
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No one said Valle is the second coming either. We have Chooch for at least 2–3 yrs but have no 3b prospect in the system . If they move Pence they need to get either a ML ready middle reliever or a AAA 3B prospect in my opinion .Also didn’t they get a hot shot young C in the Thome deal ?
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Pence for a BP arm a year after giving up 4 players to get him? Sorry, at that price you keep him and let him play out his deal and take the draft pick. That’s not a pennies on the dollar return, that’s no return at all.
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Why do otherwise sensible people continue to propagate absolutely false statements? An asset has whatever value it has, regardless of what it cost to obtain. It doesn’t matter whether the asset is Hunter Pence, pumpkin futures or a house. Your house is worth what you can get for it this month, not what the government wants its cut of.
What is the 2012 stretch drive and the right pay Hunter Pence 13 million dollars it 2013 worth? That’s it. period. As a red-blooded Phillies fan I wish it were worth Mike Trout, but wishes won’t make it so.
I’m not saying give Hunter Pence away, but to the Phillies, to our good fortune, there is an opportunity cost to paying him however much next year. It’s possible that they can use that money for another player or players that can bring more wins in return. And if we could get one major league ready position player who can produce next year for the ML minimum, that would really help us contend in 2013, and so much the better. Whatever happens, I hope Ruben makes a better decision than he did last year.
But at the same time, remember that if Hunter Pence was parading down Broad Street last fall, Ruben would be hailed as a genius, a reminder to the wise that things are not always as they appear . . .
As noted philosopher Michael Vick stated on Piers Morgan tonight: “life is 90% perception, 10% reality”
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And I apologize for being so far off-topic in the box score thread, but I didn’t start it
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Trade talk with the 4pm deadline on Tuesday more interesting than looking at box scores
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There’s quite a lot of distance between a bullpen arm and what the phillies gave up. Certainly wouldn’t expect them to get as much as they gave up, but I would think they’d get as more than they got for 1/3 of a year of Vic – bullpen arm and possible starting pitcher.
But if not, obviously they should not trade him.
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Tommy Joseph report by Jon Mayo:
Joseph was drafted out of high school largely for his bat, and his power potential started to show up consistently in games in 2011, when he finished second in the system in RBIs (95) and tied for third in homers (22). If he can improve his plate discipline, he has the ability to be an even better all-around hitter. Many felt Joseph was destined to move to first base, but he played well behind the plate last year and now looks like he could stick there. Next up: the challenge of the upper levels of the system. He missed almost two weeks with concussion symptoms after being hit by a batter’s backswing, but returned to Double-A Richmond in late May.
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Note: those HR/RBI are in the California League, which many consider a video game league.
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Project his power/ISO in the EL over 525PAs. Does it come close to the Cal league numbers?
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He is in AA right now, so we don’t really have to project anything. Just look at them. Leagues are fairly similar.
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er, he’s already in EL is what I meant to write
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Well then a comp with Valle would give us a clear pix of the guy…..’he is in AA right now, so we don’t really have to project anything. Just look at them. Leagues are fairly similar’
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Don’t forget the year’s use of Pence, 102 wins and quick playoff exit.
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I went to the Lakewood game yesterday. This was my second game in the past 3 weeks. My thoughts:
– Arias surprised me. I didn’t think he was much of a prospect before the game. But he throws very hard. He sat 93-95 all game. Hit 95 many times. And got a fair amount of swings and misses with his breaking pitch. A few swinging Ks were on pitches that broke into the dirt. So must have been good movement. I couldn’t see from the 3b line whether it was a curve or slider. He also handled a bad break early in the game when Dugan dropped a routine fly ball bc he lost it in the sun. Kept his composure
– Duffy looked very patient at the plate. I was very impressed with his walk in the first inning.
– Dugan on the other hand did not look patient. He swings out of his shoes every pitch.
– I sure hope that Lino learns to hit because he looks great behind the plate. I know he has a bunch of past balls, but that is not telling. He had a great plate block for an out (did that in the other game I saw too). He has a very strong arm. Also a very accurate arm. He is a very big guy too. Looks like a presence behind the plate. Not sure he will ever be able to hit enough, but I hope that he does, because his defense is steller.
– Carver needs to hit the gym. Looks like the pitch can hit the bat out of his hands.
– Franco did not look good in the field or the plate. They dropped two bunts his way and he didn’t make either play. Looked very stiff charging the ball and throwing. He still looks lost to me at the plate too.
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Thanks for the report. Interesting about Arias- he’s old for Lakewood, was a reliever most of the time, and gives up a lot of hits. But his strikeout totals are solid. Probably not much of a prospect but guys who throw hard are always worth having around.
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Sounds like Dugan is Pence-like. His strike out totals are approaching the century mark.
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OK thia is WAY late but just wanted to respond to the comment someone made earlier saying the Phils “didn’t know how to draft”. I really don’t want to be an apologist but in this same thread you have someone’s top 120 and the Phils are responsible for 6 of them. Pure basic math (number of teams, 120 slots) means the Phillies are definitely above average. Add to that the fact that we’ve been good for quite some time, which means drafting at the tail end of all the rounds, and I have to say I can’t think you can knock the Phils for this. I think we forget what we gave away sometimes (though reminded when they make their major league debut – like Gose has done:) ) but I think some folks need to take a breath and look at that.
Adding to that I think we’re all fairly excited about this year and last year’s draft crop – so far. I for one am looking forward to when BA starts putting out league to 20’s to see if the “outside world” thinks like we do.
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Agree with you. Take the Nationals….they have drafted at the top or near the top the last 6/7 years running, They better be this good. Same with Pirates, and it was that way for the Rays from 2000 through 2008. And I might add, the Phillies rarely gave out the $M bonus money to Latin players like the Yankees, Braves , Rangers et al do. Have to give the Philadelphia organization and their scouts credit.
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And the Nats, very similar to the Pittsburgh Penguins, were not just bad but bad in the right years. Strasburg and Harper? Total no-brainers. You’d be lucky to be in a position to draft a player like that once in franchise history. Of course, they’ve done well with their other recent 1st rounders too.
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Brown and Hernandez in Kevin Goldsteins 10 Pack. Goldstein continued his stance that Brown is ready and the Phil’s are holding him back. He mentions that Hernandez is real prospect who is a definite big leaguer who should be ready about the time utley’s contract ends. Goldstein does have a noted like of small 2B who can hit.
In the comments I brought up Morgan, Goldstein says he will have more information but that the results don’t quite match the stuff but there is good stuff there. A definite prospect but not a top prospect which I read as #3 upside not a 1 or 2, which still seems good.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17828
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I’ve seen Goldstein tweet at least once that Morgan’s upside is a “back-end starter.” He certainly looks to me like he could be a 3 or 4, but what do I know?
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I’ve asked this question to Ben Badler on at least 6 occasions in the past month. He instead decides to respond to tweets about middling low-A shortstops like he has a fetish for them. My next tweet might be something along the lines of “If Adam Morgan actually throws 8 perfect innings next game, will he get a mention?”
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im assuming Badler is just answering questions he has answers for. Unlike Goldstein who has never seen any of the players hes talking about and going off of scouting reports that are 2 years old.
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Do you seriously think that is all KG does? He’s a main piece of BP. You don’t trip into a job like that.
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Goldstein leaves his living room 4 times year
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Listening to his podcasts, it sounds like he doesn’t see anybody.
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And he relies on two year old scouting reports? I couldn’t care less how many players the guy personally sees. He talks to scouts CONSTANTLY. They tell him what to think. I’ll rely on him and his living room scouting over anyone on this site and THEIR living room scouting.
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you keep believing that
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he looks cute in a fedora though!
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Who’s jumping on the Andrew Aizenstadt bandwagon with me?!?
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Whats his WHIP?
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What’s his age?
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Second batter Pettibone faces in AAA? Jayson Werth. RBI double. Hardly seems fair. #pettiboner
And for those reading the Dom Brown tea leaves, he’s in left field tonight.
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Werth is a AAAA player. (tic)
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The guy on first wouldn’t have been on base if they had an even average third-baseman.
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Jmb: your wish came true:
Ben Badler @BenBadler
Breakout guy for the Phillies. Definite scout buzz on him RT @jmb4028 Thoughts on Adam Morgan? He’s overpowering the FSL.
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I just came here to post that! I guess all I had to do was complain on PP 🙂
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Anybody know anything about Jon Schoop? Only going off of his numbers and his position, he seems like a slightly more advanced Maikel Franco.
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He’s a legit prospect. he’s struggling a bit in AA but he’s only 20 so its not unexpected.
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I’m not going to write a lot about Schoop because I think its highly highly unlikely that we get him for Blanton. Suffice to say, I’d be fine with giving up Blanton and Vic for him. Be happy if we get him, and if it happens I’ll (and I’m sure others) will be able to write more.
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We should get another piece back if we included Vic…depending on how much salary we eat too.
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Meh, I guess maybe. I frankly would be surprised and happy if we end up with a single top 100 prospect for either, so getting one for both is fine with me.
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It completely depends on how much salary we’d be eating. If its a pure salary dump for both, we’d be lucky to get a bag of balls and some mud to rub them down. If we’re paying the bulk of it, we should get a couple decent pieces or one good piece back.
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Likely saved myself writing:
Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS
#orioles declining to give up top infield prospect jon schoop for blanton. theres some smoke around joe b deal to balt tho
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Yeah, that combined with the stenographers (err, reporters) talking about five or six teams in on Blanton is cracking me up. Credit to RAJ for having the balls to pretend anybody would give a prospect like Schoop up for Heavy B. Phils will be lucky to get a middle relief prospect.
(Now watch as he trades Blanton for Travis D’Arnaud.)
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I wouldn’t have thought we’d get two decent prospects for Thome. A lot of the returns for so-so veterans this year has surprised me. It just seems like a good year to be a seller.
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D’Arnaud is injured? Or is he healthy?
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He’s injured. Tore his PCL. Done for the year, hoping to be ready in time for the Arizona Fall League.
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I expect they’ll give us nearly nothing in exchange for paying his $3 million in remaining salary. That might be enough to keep us under the Luxury Tax in 2012…which is a fair trade.
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It is. But can’t knock Amaro for trying to play the press for more. Just can’t imagine anybody’s gonna fall for that. (Ed Wade’s not a GM anymore, Rube!)
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I agree…it doesnt hurt to ask.
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Ben Badler @BenBadler
Writing him up for BA this week. Very advanced bat and glove for his age RT @owaistabish What do you think of Carlos Tocci’s numbers so far?
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Going to be a star
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Tocci: at age 16 it is startling that he can–admittedly in just a few games and ABs–take the field in pro games and NOT be at a loss at bat, etc. That he is playing CF, one of the 4 essentials, is a bonus. Should he fulfill the FO high expectations (and generous signing bonu$), he could turn out to be an exceptional player…
…but that is at least 4-5 seasons away. Very much worth following as most here will do.
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Yeah, it’s sobering to think that at his age I was reading “The Scarlet Letter” and wondering if I should quit marching band. (I did, and it was a good decision.)
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Does Andrew Pullin have good power and does any one have a scouting report on him or Cozens, Zach green, and Carmona
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Chris Duffy had a heck of a game in Clearwater last night. 3-3 and a walk.
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Why are we on this site giving away, victorino, blanton, for nothing. to shed money? they can afford to pay these guys, the way they draw,and a new tv deal is on its way. that shedding salary is for teams like pirates, marlins, kc. this team doesnt get a good prospect for victorino then you keep him and offer him arb. he is too valuable to give away, blanton is coming off three good starts, and i would never just give him away to shed salary, crazy. the california angels got geineke and did you see the stands on his first start sunday, half empty. the idea we have to shed salary is not the way the phillies should be thinking, if it means giving away players, rather wait until august waiver deal time and try then.This right now is a waiting game to see who will step up and give us something for some nice players, I cant believe pierre cant help a team. or blanton, or victorino, pence, so hopefully ruben has some patience and holds out.If blanton goes for another org filler it is the dumbest thing we can do,even pierre should bring us a decent a ball prospect.or they stay.
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roccom…did you eat breakfast yet? You need to get some carbs and protein …helps rational thinking.
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