Lots of trade deadline discussion coming this week, I imagine. Have at it.
329 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 7-23-2012”
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Phuture Phillies 
Some notes on watching the big league club (was at Friday’s game)
– When he got into trouble Worley’s approach changed dramatically, he stopped throwing strikes and was consistently behind hitters. Before his bad inning he was consistently in ahead of hitters and was working quickly. He seems to lack a put away swing and miss pitch as like usual most of his strike outs were looking.
– I was surprised at how bad Pierre’s range is, he consistently did not break on batted balls and I counted at least two ball hit his direction that he was content to play on a hop that he could have easily made a play on. Additionally I rate his arm a 30 at best, he is really butcher out there in the field.
– Howards home run sounded like it was gone off the bat, but otherwise he was flailing at off speed.
– Schwimmer looked good was sitting 94-95 on the stadium gun and seemed to go after hitters.
– Horst looked ok, seems like a decent cheap guy who could get a lefty out and could be a solid middle reliever, he was sitting 89-90 and seemed to have a decent slider.
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I heard an announcer (for the Giants) say something about Worley being a different pitcher when he has to work from the stretch. This bears watching.
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Free Dom brown
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It should not be long before Dom is brought up
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Right now, he can’t stay on the field in AAA so he doesn’t seem like much of a call-up option.
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^are you serious. Do you live under a rock or are you referring to Tyson Gillies?
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You do realize that Brown has missed that last couple of games after tweaking his previously injured knee. That would be the knee that caused him to miss almost a month between mid June and mid July. And that comes on the heal of playing just 14 games in May.
You may want to check under your rock…
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Read that Texas is scouting Cliff Lee. My preference would be to keep both Hamels and Lee but it would be interesting to see what we could get for Lee.
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Why would you want to do that? Isn’t it pretty clear this “3 ace and no hitting” profile isn’t going to work?
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It worked pretty good last year.
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1) 2011.
2) Right about average in batting in 2012.
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Yeah because 102 wins didn’t work last year at all.
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A first round loss sure didn’t work either. The bottom line is Lee isn’t a playoff pitcher.
But that’s fine – you morons will probably get your way and we’ll end up resigning Cole, along with not being able to trade Lee/Halladay. We’ll still have holes at 3B, CF, LF, SS, 2B, the bullpen. But hey, we’ll have our 3 aces for 60 some odd million.
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They lost in the first round because the play offs are a crap shoot and the other teams pitcher carried them through, the hitting wasn’t great but in the playoffs elimination can hinge on one pitcher just getting in a groove.
Also how is Lee not a playoff pitcher, in 2009 he carried the team to a World Series.
Postseason statistics for Lee (Small Sample Sizes apply): 11GP, 82IP, 7-3, 2.52 ERA, .927 WHIP, 10BB, 89K
Last time I checked that was pretty good, if you want to show me a “true” post season pitcher feel free, Lee is a good pitcher regardless of the time of year and he had a bad game last year.
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Feel free to look up his career playoff stats, then in the future try to do this type of thing before you post wrong and incredibly uninformed comments.
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Statistics be dammed – true shutdown pitchers don’t let what happened last year happen. I think we all know the scenario I’m referencing. It changed the series.
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Troll alert.
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Yah, totally. Schilling (WS gm 1 vs Jays), Randy Johnson (several examples) or CC Sabathia (Victorino says hi) never had a poor playoff game.
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Very true. I’ve never seen an elite pitcher have a bad game against a playoff team before that.
It was, I believe, the first time in MLB history that it had happened.
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Went to Baseball Reference and looked up some postseason statistics of some of the best modern pitchers by WAR (As well as the Phillies pitchers). Here are some starts, I stayed away from end of career.
Randy Johnson – 1999 NLDS – 8.1 IP 7ER 2BB 11K
Roger Clemens – 2000 ALDS – 5 IP 6ER 4BB 5K
Gregg Maddux – 2000 NLDS – 4IP 5ER 3BB 2K
Steve Carlton – 1977 NLCS – 5IP 4ER 5BB 3K
Pedro Martinez – 2004 ALCS – 6IP 4ER 5BB 6K (there were worse in the 2009 WS)
Cole Hamels – 2009 WS – 4.1 IP 5ER 2BB 3K
Cliff Lee – 2011 NLDS – 6IP 5ER 2BB 9K
The only pitcher that fits your description is … Sandy Koufax and last time I checked he wasn’t available. Postseason statistics are the ultimate small sample size, and outfielder turning an easy out into a double or the SS just not getting to the ball can change them dramatically.
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“My job is to get the team to the postseason. After that, it’s all f****** luck.”
-Billy Beane
Playoffs are a crapshoot. You give your team the best possible chances to win during the regular season. Obviously stocking up with pitching works. Anything can happen in the postseason.
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Of course it will work, this year is just an off year.
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CAN NOT be worse than last time. Seriously other than gigantic name where have the Amaro Phils ever picked the right player prospect or bench . I don’t think it could be overstated how much Qualls hurt this team.
I guess people thought I was crazy when I stated what a bad fielder Pierre would be
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welcome back wheels…..no one thinks you are crazy, most all agreed on Juan Pierre’s defensive liabilities.
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Well not crazy about that, anyway. 🙂
No, I kid. I’ve said before Wheels wins most improved commenter on this site, even if I still often disagree with him.
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Also been busy having grandchildren, a bumper 18 months.The latest a 8lb boy Nathan born monday.
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I’m very torn on what I’m really hoping happens over the next week. My first choice, independent of everything, is I hope the Phils sweep the Brewers and Braves, and we end up trying to add a solid setup reliever before the deadline. Assuming that doesn’t happen, on one hand I want to see the team resign Cole now and on the other hand 6 years and that much money seems very risky and maybe not the best use of that much money vs the alternatives.
Assuming the team is in “sell mode”, I would really like to see a big prospect haul in return for someone, preferably fewer high end prospects over volume of mid range prospects. Seems to me the best path is to..
1 Sign Cole if you can and if you do, shop Pence for upper level prospects.
2 If they can’t sign Cole, trade him for upper level prospects. Not sure then a Pence trade makes sense but would depend upon value in return.
3 Ensure that a roster spot is clear for D Brown to play everyday in the big leagues the rest of this season. That could be Pence, Victorino, or Pierre.
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In the middle of another successful period in Phillies history(1974-1983) they had a set back in 1979. While this current group is older, the 1979 Phillies bullpen was a disaster. The disappointment led them to getting younger off of the bench(Smith and Moreland) as well as getting younger in the bullpen, and Tug McGraw and Warren Brusstar coming in healthy.
Are DeFratus and Aumont possiblilities for next season? Can Brown and Ruf be added into the mix. They still need to get younger in the field, but if they sign Hamels and focus on a pitcher for the bullpen to complement Papelbon and a few rookies, and get a 3rd baseman, maybe they can turn this around quickly.
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Wait, why trade Pence if you sign Cole? And why keep Pence if you don’t?
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Handzus, all of my comments are pure conjecture obviously not knowing the names that would be included in a deal for either Pence or Hamels. My thought is that if you could keep one and trade one, it would be desirable from a salary standpoint, it could help you get younger if it brings back a 3B or OF prospect that’s ready to step in to that job in the big leagues in 2013 possibly, or it could get you the prospects that would help you make an off season deal for a player that is available via trade.
As I mentioned, I’m very torn on Hamels at that contract length and dollars. It is a very tough decision for RAJ on this one because you have so many factors: the fan base, the fact that Cole is a WS MVP, the fact that he’s 28 on an aging team in their early to mid 30’s, the fact that they possibly could get pieces for the future if they move him is very attractive, the question of whether he could be resigned during Free Agency even if he is traded, etc.
On the other hand, I am not a big fan of Hunter Pence as an over $10M per year salary kind of guy. I think if he is Jayson Werth on the 2008 Phillies, i.e., batting 6th and making under $10M per year and putting up the numbers he is, he is a very nice complimentary piece on a team and you can look past some of his defensive flaws and his poor plate discipline. But to pay that type of player upwards of $15M I believe is not a wise move for the reasons above, and additionally, I do not believe he is the type of hitter that will get smarter with age and modify his approach. He is a free swinger, see ball hit ball kind of guy who doesn’t make adjustments and he achieves what he does based on his talent, not on a well thought out, cerebral approach to the game that we see from a Chase Utley or Roy Halladay as examples. That is why I would strongly prefer to trade him now while his value is it’s highest to the Phils but as many wise commenters on this site have stated in past weeks, the risk is that you need to replace him with someone of equal or better performance to contend in 2013 and that could be risky to assume you can get that player in FA or via trade.
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I always liked Jeff Francouer for RF/LF, ADHD aside, RAJ had his chance for a whole lot less then Hunter, but decided against it..
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You think Pence is bad, but would prefer Fancouer? Words cannot even begin to explain how bad of a “trade” that would be.
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+1
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Actually not, you see Francouer was a free agent in fall/winter 2010 I believe….cost about $5/6M annum. I think it would be a better return on investment, but then again, giving up Singleton. Santana and Cosart was no big thing to you, to get Pence, I am sure. You and Ruben think a like it appears…you should be so proud!
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Just some thoughts on the dealine:
1. Trading Pence is a move that large market teams do not make, for better or worse this team is still hitched to the Howard, Utley, Halladay, Papelbon (I assume everyone else could be moved for a price) and to trade away Pence is to punt the next 3-4 years. He may be overpaid a bit but there are not a whole lot of guys like him and come next year you will be trading prospects looking for the next Pence.
2. I would trade Polanco, Pierre, Blanton, Victorino, Wigginton, or any of the other bench guys. This season is lost, you need to retool for a run next year and you need to know what you have in Brown and maybe see if some of the AAA retreads can be MLB caliber bench pieces.
3. Keep Hamels, Lee, Haladay at whatever cost I think Hamels will age well with his change up and isn’t a injury risk beyond the old pitchers get hurt. These three may not be as good as they were a year or two ago, but good pitching can carry you throw rough patches, they have been victimized by a bad bullpen which has caused Charlie to overwork them and try and get that extra inning out of them because he doesn’t trust the bullpen.
4. I want the front office to keep their eyes open for an under performing (or change of scenery) player under control for multiple years that can be had for cheap on the prospect side (think Rios, Peavy, Melky Cabrera, even Burnett this year) I would buy as an asset for next year. There is always one of those guys available now that maybe you give the rest of the season to work out their issues. (Guys I could think of are Snider and Lind of the Blue Jays and Stubs of the Reds)
The conclusion is that unless you are going to blow up the whole thing the eye should be on retooling for the 1-2 years not the next 5-6 years this team’s window is still open
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This is all predicated on the assumption that signing Hamels is something that the Phillies can do. He may be determined to test the free market and signing him may be out of the control of the Phillies. I have a feeling that Hamels is not that eager to sign with the Phillies.
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I have to agree if you can keep Hamels you do it. If not I would like to end up with Olt and Leonys Martin. Both are ready and both will be cheap young options for years to come.
If Hamels does sign RAJ must step up his game to find a fill in at 3B and cross his fingers that Brown can finally make his presence felt in the line-up. You don’t get rid of Pence unless its a really sweet package. And as you say you have to get really lucky buying low on a guy that bounces back and over performs.
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you guys wanna hear something funny? the other day i read an article by david murphy on philly .com he suggested that the phils should trade pence for a high ceiling prospect to more or less offset the bad trade with the astros getting three guys from us! i couldn’t let that go. i replied that if they did that then the trade would mean we gave up 3 high prospects AND pence for a high ceiling player! and he complains of bad trades? i told him i was glad he’s not running the team.
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I hated the Pence trade at the time and I still hate it, but you are forgetting the value that Pence brought last year, which is now gone. If the Phillies had won the World Series last year, perhaps that would be more clear to you. But reality is that at best Pence is now worth one prospect, and is probably better to take the prospect in exchange for the right to pay him $13 million next year. I don’t know if you can even get a legit prospect, you’ll have to have a contender desperate for a right-handed hitting corner outfielder.
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I believe your comments under #4 are absolutely key. Finding guys that have the upsides of some of the names you mentioned and the downside of being an ok bench player will be key for this team, as it has been in the past.
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It’s really hard to identify and acquire those types of players. Phillies got lucky with Vic and Werth, but IMO relying on picking star or near star players off the scrap heap is not a winning strategy. Like playing the lottery as your retirement plan.
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I didn’t say you rely on this strategy. It is a worthwhile effort once or twice per year and every few years you may find something.
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They did try that this year. Juan Pierre is on the team. Dontrelle Willis isn’t. Every team tries it every year.
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Greg, reread 4 above, Pierre and Willis don’t meet the criteria. Target is young, under achieving types who maybe haven’t gotten a chance to play, or have had injuries, etc.
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Drew Stubbs was mentioned last week, concering a Vic transaction to the Reds, and it was down-played by some of the posters.
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The Braves have acquired Dempster. Early speculation is that Delgado will go to the Cubs. Let’s see if there’s more to the package but Delgado alone isn’t a bad return. In a perfect scenario, Hamels gets traded for an ideal package (think Angels or Rangers), Pence and Victorino are moved for more prospects, the Phils land the 8th pick (or better) in next year’s draft, and the money freed up by moving Pence allows them to sign Hamels as a FA. I’m dreaming perhaps, but that’s not too far fetched of an outcome.
IMO, Phans should recognize the opportunity to retool the Pharm and create a good deal of financial flexibility in the process.
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Steve, the Florida sun has got to you, but really do like your hopes and desires…lets keep our fingers crossed.
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In my opinion, if you don’t sign Cole by Friday, he’s on the trade block, I can’t even believe I’m saying that. Put Pence and Victorino on the block and you’ll have to go with a replacement level outfield. Next year you’ll have a protected pick in the draft, and can sign a FA hitter for the OF, and have some decent pieces to rebuild. Pence IMHO is just not a fit for this team, who already had enough free swingers. His approach at the plate or lack of approach would compliment a team who has some quality OBP options for Pence to compliment…just my thoughts.
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His BB% rate is a touch above average, and his K rate is just about average, and slightly above average for guys with his power.
People have a selective memory, reinforced because he can sometimes look ugly swinging.
IMHO- Trade Vic if you can get better value than you can get from the extra draft pick. Keep Pence unless somoene really wants to overpay for him.
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People should keep in mind that under the new rules teams will not be compensated for losing players to free agency unless the player was offered and rejected an offer of what is currently estimated as 12.5 million. With the exception of Hamels, I don’t think any of the Phillies free agents (including Victorino) would qualify.
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Victorino would absolutely be offered, and will almost absolutely reject it.
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But if you offer Victorino a 1 year deal for $12.5, he will decline, knowing he’s going to get multiple years in the open market.
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Have you watched any games this year? You are both wildly overestimating the value of an aging player whose value is based on his (declining) speed, who isn’t even hitting replacement level from the left side of the plate, where he is going to get the majority of his at-bats. What plus tool does he have at this point? His value is that of a platoon corner outfielder.
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He is having his career worst year, and is still on pace for a 2.0 WAR. His ‘declining’ speed is still on pace for 30-35 SB, right at his average. He still rarely gets caught stealing. He still can play CF, and there is a lot of value there. I doubt he gets 12.5 per, but 3/30 is certainly realistic.
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His unorthodox swing doesn’t bother me in the least, it’s his lack of discipline that I find frustrating, overswinging, GIDP’s, swinging at pitches above his eyes, pithces per plate appearance.
. If you can get close to what you traded for Pence, then it may be too good to turn down.
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LarryM said it best last year, in a round about way, about Hunter Pence after the trade…..we will come to rue the day he is on our team. The initial success of 2011 has worn thin. Anyway, lets all go eat.
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Rue the day he is on our team? He might not be a superstar the way some people hoped, but Pence is hitting 271 with 17 homers. Not really hating him on the Phillies . . . I dislike when Mini Mart is on the team, not Pence
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+1 … they overpaid for him, but there are worse things in the world than having Hunter Pence on your team
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10 million dollar salary, a top 25 prospect for a .6 WAR right fielder. Seems like good business.
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You’re going to ignore five years of data (3.9fWAR in ’08, 3.5 in ’09, 4.0 in ’10 and 4.7 in ’11) and base your conclusions about Pence’s value entirely on how he performed from April to July of this year?
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What I said, not using quite those words, is that we would rue the day that we made the trade. And we will (and I think I’ve been fairly good about not pointing out that I was correct, though I am gratified that some give me credit for being right, espeically given the extent to which I was criticized at the time). Not that we would rue having Pence on our team.
That said, and while Pence got too much credit last year – for intangibles, for defense (ha), and for is unsustainable hitting performance, the reverse is somewhat true this year. He is a useful complementary piece, worth his salary (but no bargain) this year and next. Not worth a prospect like Singleton even up, not even close. And almost certain to get paid more than he is worth as a FA.
Given that I think almost everything has to break right for them to contend next year even with Pence, and because he won’t be worth a contract extension past next year, I’d consider trading him. Doubt it will happen, for quite understandable reasons. Don’t think I would do it unless they could get an A prospect, not sure that they can.
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Pence for Singleton straight up would be an absolute steal, and this is from someone that absolutely loves Singleton. He is still, more likely than not, unlikely to have as good a career as Pence.
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Nonsense. Perhaps you’re right about the overall career comparision, in terms of probabilities (though Singleton likely has a higher upside), but the Phillies only got 2 1/2 years of Pence’s career. I fell comfortable predicting that Singleton’s controlled years will likely be signficantly more value that 2 1/2 years of Pence. On top of that, those 2 1/2 years Pence is/was being paid about what he was worth. Don’t get me wrong, there is value in that (most FAs cost more than they are “worth” compared to the population of all players), but the Phillies will lose out on the true “value” years of a young player, the pre-arb years.
Now, all that said, one could argue that the increased chance to win it all while the current core was not ready for a retirement home was worth losing out a bit on the value exchange. That is, if in fact it had been a straight up one for one deal, which it wasn’t. (And I’m not even considering the fact that they didn’t even get to the WS last year, or playofs this year.)
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But remember, this deal is actually to the Phillies advantage because the Houston Astros have poor player development, so we essentially gave them 3 prospects that they do not know how to handle, I’m figuring Singleton can be an average DH when they move to the AL and Cosart can be a 2,3,4 guy in the Rotation. Santana is so young most of his development isn’t coming from the Phillies there for he is Houston’s to screw up. But those three will be nothing more. I would love to see Pence kept because there isn’t a Right Fielder that is better than him that we could bring in for a cheaper or less prospect induced price.
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Singleton is still just a prospect, and while his future appears bright, Pence has already done what people merely hope Singleton will be able to do.
When you have a team that has the ability to send $175M, and are competing for a WS, ‘value’ isn’t as necessary as pure production (despite that Pence is outperforming his salary).
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LarryM (fire Amaro now). says:
July 30, 2011 at 2:28 AM
Still hate the trade. Agree on your evaluation of the prospects, but Pence is not much of an upgrade on Brown even this year. Pence just isn’t that good. All he has going for him, aside from slightly above average defense, is mid range power. Doesn’t take a walk, strikes out a lot for the type of player he is. What seems odd to me is not the pieces of your analysis but your conclusion. Despite correctly being very enthusiastic about Singleton, and almost as unenthusiastic about Pence as I am, you still come out in favor of the trade. I don’t really see the logic there. Let’s say he increases the team’s chance to win this year by 1% – very generous IMO. Is that worth losing a player who is highly likely to be at least a solid regular for years, and could be a perennial all star, and a pitcher who carries a ton of risk but could be a top of the rotations starter? Not in my book. Just a horrible, hideous trade. Amaro must go.
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And think I have been completely vindicated. My balanced evaluation of Pence has not changed. But my lukewarm evaluation of him (keep in mind I like Brown quite a lot, so the comparison was not as much a knock on Pence as it would have been for most) was not nearly as harsh as the (IMO unfair) pillorying that he is now getting.
Remember, as this quote should make clear, where I differed with most people wasn’t so much in my evaluation of Pence, but in my evaluation of the prospects. Of course some people went overboard, thinking that last year’s bump in offense was permanent. I disagreed with that – and was right. (And so far am also looking prescient regarding the prospects, though of course it is too soon to be sure).
IMO, some of the recent disenchantment with Pence is just that – people realizing last year was a career year for him, he isn’t a star after all. Me, with a more balanced appreciation, am less disappointed this year.
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And I think that it is to my credit that, regarding Amaro, I can at the same time criticize him when he really screws up, and defend him when he is subject to unjust criticism.
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Pence leads the Phillies in pitches per plate appearance. HTH.
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Well I’ll be..if that isn’t the end all to be all! Pence leads the Phillies in pitches per plate appearance. This Hunter Pence is truly an enigma.
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Seems like more of an indictment on the rest of the team than praise for Pence’s patience.
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He’s like 14th overall for all NL players. But again, these stats don’t take into account that he looks funny so I think thats gotta be at least minus-2 WAR right there.
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This stat is driven by the fact that he swings and misses alot, and when he gets down 0-2, the pitchers throw the next 2-3 pitches (or as long as it takes them to get him to chase something) in the dirt or over his head. He may see a similar number of pitches to Pat Burrell or Jayson Werth, but the AB’s look much different.
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“Looks” don’t score runs. Players that put up stats like Pence does scores runs. Your little theory is also discounted by the fact that his strikeout rate is right at the ML average, and is actually better than average for power hitters…
But don’t let that stop you or others from changing the argument to something else your wrong about.
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I don’t think he’s a bad player, my point is that he is not a $15M per year player, or a guy that should be signed to a 5 yr, $80M+ contract after next year.
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He does have an above average number of swinging strikes, albeit something like 3 pitches in a hundred. Some of the players with a worse swinging strike percentages:
Josh Hamilton
Giancarlo Stanton
Bryce Harper
I mean, it’s sad that, of all people, I end up defending Hunter Pence. He’s not a star, but he’s the team’s second best hitter this year, and he’s not the reason the Phillies are losing, or even a substantial contributor to that.
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He’s 25th. Which is still good. He’s walks per plate appearance are well above his career average too. He’s had a good season at the plate. I don’t know why anyone would try to dispute that. Yeah we gave up a whole lot for him and he probably wasn’t worth it, but we should at least be able to appreciate what he can do for us.
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So I guess, based on his outstanding plate skills, all in favor of the Pence. then feel he is well worth the $14/15M he will command after next year!
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That’s exactly what I said.
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I wonder were Hunter falls as for RISP in baseball……which in the advanced metric world is really an insignificant stat, since why worry about runners on 2nd or 3rd to drive in, Just get the hits/BBs and keep up the metrics in the ‘relaxed’ mode ABs.
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dont mock advanced metrics because you dont understand it.
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I see it has worked rather well for Billy Beane…so I guess it is the right way to go to build a winner!
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Really? What you know about advanced metrics is that Billy Beane uses them? Did you learn everything you know about baseball at the movies?
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It did for the Red Sox.
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Sure did…Schilling and Beckett aside for 10 wins combined
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One other comment around the trade deadline and it relates to the luxury tax. I will not get all the numbers exactly correct but the philosophy and principles are accurate. Going into this season, the Phils were planning to come in just under the luxury tax threshold, but due to all the injuries, it has likely put them over the threshold if they don’t trade anyone away. This is due to the fact that they pay players on the DL and the more players on the DL, the more players on the major league payroll.
The luxury tax threshold this year and next year is the same amount, I believe $174M. The penalty for going over escalate drastically each time a team exceeds it but resets if they go one year under it. After next year, the cap is raised to approx $189M. It sounds like the Phils don’t mind paying it at a lower rate but can’t afford to be 2 or 3 time offenders, or at least don’t want to be. Getting under the $189M number in 2014 will be very doable and if they can trade away a few veterans this year to keep them from going over, they will philosophically be open to going over next year, as they would be a first time offender, and with the higher cap limit in 2014 they could get back to being under and wipe the slate clean at that point.
So in addition to getting prospects in return, unloading a salary like Blanton’s or Victorino’s now, could give the team more financial flexibility to spend in the off-season.
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i like to have the 8th pick next year.
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I would trade anyone from this current roster who doesn’t figure into next year’s plans.
That would include Victorino ,( I’m convinced M.Bourn will sign here as a FA) Polanco (veteran IF that might find his stroke again for one last chance at a championship) Blanton, (he’s pitching well at a perfect time) and Hunter Pence who will likely get you the best prospect closest to the bigs.
I think Hamels will re-sign with a limited no-trade clause and become the wild card (to be traded)for the next couple years if they aren’t contending.
The Big Three pitchers and the big three infielders are still good box office and should be retained as long as their productivity doesn’t decline too much farther.
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Signing Bourn would be compounding mistakes, especially if the team traded Pence at the same time.
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Well it’s not either/or, but I would favor Bourn over Pence because:
(1) Right now, Bourn is the better player overall, and it isn’t particularly close, but, despite that,
(2) Because of his skills set, Bourn is likely to be less well paid as a FA.
Now, on the other hand, Pence does have one more year of team control and is a few months younger, But that doesn’t outweigh 1 and 2 IMO. IMO, unless I’m wrong about #2 (possible), the only serious argument to the contrary is worry about Bourn maybe having a worse aging curve (he’s the kind of player that loses value quickly once his speed declines. See, e.g., June Pierre). That concern is enough to give me some pause, but then again they may get quite a good prospect for Pence, while not having to give up anything for Bourn, even a pick, if they stay in the bottom 10.
As I said elsewhere, i am, despite my distain for the trade, not as down on Pence as some. But right now Bourn is a heck of a player, even discounting this season to some extent.
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Wow, Bourn has a career year (career OPS = .707) and he is suddenly a better player than Pence? I’d take Pence any day of the week, even at a slightly higher salary.
I like Bourn, but I’m not buying as a FA after a career year.
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Even before this year, base running plus defense plus positional advantage more than made up for Pence being a better hitter.
That said, a FA after a career year is always a risk. Obviously if he get overpaid based upon that the Phillies should pass.
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Bourn is not that much of an upgrade over Vic. More steals, but less power. 2 years younger. May actually cost more.
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2 years younger is big. He will cost more, though. Also a better defender, but over the past few years overall they are pretty much the same value. Especially given the team aging profile, I’d spend a bit more for the younger player. OTOH, as I said above, I do have concerns about Bourn’s possible aging profile. But there are no risk free FA signings; Bourn may be the best combination of age, value, and need on the FA market for the Phillies.
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in regards to Matt Winks:
2. I would trade Polanco, Pierre, Blanton, Victorino, Wigginton, or any of the other bench guys. This season is lost, you need to retool for a run next year and you need to know what you have in Brown and maybe see if some of the AAA retreads can be MLB caliber bench pieces.
Agree on all fronts, but add a few:
a. If Hamels is not signed by Friday, trade him. If he signs, trade Lee. No longer agree that we can lock up 50% of the payroll on starting pitching and contend.
b. Shop Pence for prospects and turn around and send them to the Padres for Headley. It would be a good start to get a guy with a high OPS to add to a lineup devoid of such.
c. Shop JRoll!! You can stomach his loss by adding power and speed to the outfield and 3b. You could add Olt and Martin from Tex for Lee or Hamels and plug them both into the outfield if you got Headley. If no Headley, put Olt at 3b.
d. Free Dom Brown!
e. Pick up any and all possible additions to the pen.
We can still contend with a rotation of Halladay, Lee/Hamels, and Worley. Add a cheaper option at the end of the year like Dempster and fortify the bullpen. Offesively, you come back with a whole new outfield, hopefully a healthy Howard and Utley, a new 3b and ss, Chooch at c.
This offense has been stagnant for two + years —-or since we got caught stealing signs, very eerily a coincidence?? Not that I condemn it, but the team has never hit the same since that date. Tired of the JROLL lack of effort and Victorino’s dumb plays and lack of patience at the plate. The team has had no hunger since 2009 and it is time to roll over on some of these guys. We can still contend if Amaro plays his hand here.
He backed of his end of the year edict last year about having to change their approach and how has that worked for the team? Get a set of balls and make the tough moves. The fans will not be upset if they get young, exciting MLB ready talent to fill in.
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Who to move, IMO, in order…Joe Blanton, Vic, Hunter and then, if need be, Lee or Cole.
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Where would some of the potential prospects rank in our system: Olt, Martin, Sterling Marte, Perez, Zach Lee and other hot names
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IMHO, based on how you wrote them — 1, 2, 2, 2, 2. Essentially Biddle is similar, but a touch ahead, of all the non-Olt’s. I’d specifically go: Olt, Biddle, Perez, Martin, Marte, Lee.
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All would be number 1.
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All would be in our lineup by 2014!!! RAJ, time to step up from the kiddie table and make the Gillick Like moves-not geared by the big spending. Find the prospects and diamonds that Gillick made a living finding and turn this thing around!!!!
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Lee and pence are here to stay. Ruiz only rh power in line up. Come on guys be real here. You can take Cole money and sign a CF and SP. And all others you can fill. Hope Cole gets you a third base chip and Vic a bullpen pc. Move forward from there. Hope Dom can get it health wise and be somebody. Only a bump in road this year. Maybe small blessing. This will allow our other prospects to move up. Valle, Cesar, ruf, and the many pitchers. Hope farm gets restocked and we move on. Tv deal coming soon can go backwards. A starting three of doc cliff and clean Vance isn’t too bad. And who ever we might pick up in FA.
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Not sure Vance is a three in the rotation. Or if, the FO would be comfortable with that.He seems more of a 4 or 5.
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I wonder what its going to take for people to understand that the GM is pretty close to incompetent.
Highest payroll in the NL and last place in the East. If you want to lay it off on injuries, play it that way. All teams have injuries, but we’ve known about the injuries to Utley – for a couple of years now, and to Howard for a whole year.
What moves were made to compensate? Signing Papelbon? How does that make any sense?
The Giants signed Cabrera and the Cards got Beltran. We could have signed either one with the money we gave to Paps. And both if we don’t sign Wigginton and Nix.You can chalk up the years Beltran and Cabrerea are having to dumb luck…in which case the GM is not just bad, but unlucky to boot…
The FO is penny wise and pound foolish to the extreme. Letting go of Jimy Williams and Davey Lopes were big mistakes. Cholly needs an experienced old hand; his judgement is often faulty, as we’ve seen the past couple of years. These guys could have been had for peanuts compared to what the GM has shelled out for Lee or Papelbon.
Its looking to me like Hamels moves on, but any way you cut it the GM bobbled this one, too. Six years for ~130 mil is nuts on this team. And trading Cole is almost as bad, especially when its our GM doing the horsetrading. At this point I’d be content…no, make that ecstatic, to get Singleton and Santana back for Hamels…
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See the thing is you’re citing offensive people we’ve missed out on but our offense has been more than adequate this year and no worse if not better than last year. The problem has been pitching. The bullpen has been atrocious and we’ve got down years from Halladay and Lee. How many leads have we seen blown?
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Sigh. I’m as critical of Amaro as the next guy, but … once the decision was made to keep trying to win with the current core, there is little Amaro could have done in the short term to make the situation better. Sure there are some moves that look bad in hindsight, and some moves that looked bad at the time. but mostly either small potatoes or moves that won’t really negatively impact the team for a couple more years (e.g., the Pence move). Or moves that really you can’t fault the FO for, like failing to predict that some older free agents would discover the fountain of youth.
It’s silly to say “every team has to deal with injuries.” We have had way more than our share, and really it is a rare – and lucky – team that can withstand that many serious injuries to key personnel and still compete. Of course the point about Utley misses the fact that the options at second were limited, and even for a high payroll team like the Phillies, there are limits – and Utley’s injury doesn’t prevent them from having to pay his salary. Ditto Howard, but even moreso. Ironically, given how bad the team has been, signing someone to replace Howard would not have made the team truely competitive, yet would have cost the team prospects, salary flexibility, or both.
Say what you want regarding Papelbon, but given how bad the pen has been, the alternative of a “bullpen by committee” likey would have cost the team 3 to 4 games. Of course there were alternatives, but they generally weren’t THAT much cheaper (albeit, shorter contracts, but Papelbon’s contract, only about 6% of the payroll, is hardly a serious constrain on the payroll.
Manuel is not perfect, but his biggest “fault” in the minds of many is in fact a point in his favor – his refusal to waste outs in “small ball” strategies. Yes, his bullpen management could be better, but that is hardly the reason for the pen’s problems this year.
Beyond thos specifics, obviously in hindsight the decision to try to wring a couple more years out of the current core is questionable. But coming off a 100 win season, it can hardly be called an irrational decision.
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I agree with this completely, we are judging the moves in hindsight. If everyone knew that Beltran or Cabrera would have these years their value to sign/trade for would not have made them bargains. There are very legitimate arguments to be made that he overpaid for Pence and Howard is an albatross of a contract and that those should have been known at the time. But you cannot judge someone on information that was not available to them at the time. If you told RAJ at the start of the season that J-Roll would be the only IF to stay healthy and he would lose his best back up option as well and that he would lose 8-9 weeks of Lee and Haladay combined he would have done things differently. But as Larry said once that Howard contract was inked and they traded for Haladay and signed Lee this is the core they are stuck with and you cannot really blow it up.
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I also agree with larrym on this. Everyone that said the Papelbon signing was bad said they should have done one of 3 other things – 1) Sign Madson, 2) Sign Heath Bell, or 3) Go with a bullpen by committee that would have had Bastardo and Stutes or Contreras closing games. I’m not saying I love Papelbon or the years or dollars he got, but it was absolutely the best decision of these 4 options for 2012.
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To say nothing of the point that the facts of the rant are just wrong. The Giants did not sign Cabrera, they traded for him. They traded a (at the time) quality, young, major league pitcher for him. Think trading Vance Worley would’ve made you happier? Also, Amaro didn’t sign Wigginton as a free agent, he traded for him…and Colorado is paying a majority of his salary as a condition of the trade. Nix is making, what, a million dollars? Yeah…they certainly could’ve offered his contract to Beltran. I’m sure he would’ve signed that.
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Sulla, I guess all the injuries to the pitching staff and others the Phillies have suffered does not play any part of this disappointing season. Troll alert!
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Man oh man, the quality of some of these posts is horrific… I really enjoy thinking of possible rumors with the big club as much as the next guy but the logic here is killing me.
1. Pence is a good complementry player, and even at 12 million a year, that’s perfectly fine for a team pushing the luxuary tax.
2. People’s anger is misplaced. Jroll is a fine SS on a contender.
3. Vic is really having a bad year, but he’s not nearly as bad as this year suggests. The sample size of his sucess is to large.
4. The best option is to resign hamels.
5. As to locking up 60-70 million per year in 3 players, yes, it’s a lot but only a problem is the phillies can’t continue to spend on offensive position players. Honestly, the phillies are spending 35 million at 2B and 1B and neither player has contributed much this year what so-ever. Now, if you were to spred that 35 million and generate a typical return from it, what would happen to the phillies offensive production?
Here’s the deal, phillies have 3 choices:
1. Keep the roster intact with no change in team payroll and hope for our two biggest offensive pieces to be what they were 2/3 years ago.
2. Spend your way out of the hole you’re in.
3. Blow it up.
I’m not ownership, so i don’t know how this is going to roll but I think the least rational response is #3.
If you blow it up, and some how don’t return to “greatness” in the next year or two, you’re going to see a team in 5 years with a salary cap near league average instead of where it’s at now.
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+1
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Agree. Especially since the worst contract is untradeable.
The Rollins suggestions remain particularly mind boggling. Just so completely irrational. He is, this year, by any rational evaluation method, traditional, statistical, whatever, one of the top SSs in the league, going by this year’s performance. No adequate replacement in sight, no likelihood of even an “A” prospect in return, and, fan perceptions to the contrary, the contract is not bad. Just giving away wins by trading him. At least some of the other possible moves of veterans have upside, even if ultimately unwise.
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“Especially since the worst contract is untradeable”…let me guess…the first baseman?
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Can anyone doubt it now? The injury mostly wiped out year one of the deal, and, given aging curves, that should have been the most valuable year of the deal. He is 32 year’s old, and honestly can anyone deny an old 32 year old? Years rfemoved from being an elite first baseman (2009). And that’s without any of the statistical analysis that shows him to be, while valuable, significantly overrated.
There’s still room for an argument that, given the information available a the time, it was not a bad deal (I don’t buy it but an argument could be made), but now? The Phillies will be quite lucky if they end up getting 1/3 of the value of the contract from Howard.
Here’s a prediction for you: over the length of his contract, Rollins will give the team more value than Howard. At about half the AAV. (And fewer years, very much an advantage for Rollins given the players’ ages). And people are horrified at Rollins’ contract.
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Reasonable suggestions. Some of the comments here are just silly. The Phils want to win next year and they’ll do what they need to do to achieve that. RAJ’s moves were actually mostly very good this offseason. Wig, Nix, Pierre, resigning Rollins – all good moves. Who knew so many arms would go down? Who knew Lee would have one wins trade and give up lead after lead? And Doc would go down? And Utley and Howard would not be back until mid July? In planning for next year, there’s no reason to trade Pence unless you’re getting Upton back so he won’t be traded. Hamels will either sign or be traded shortly. Hamels wants to be a FA and who can blame him. Maybe he’ll come back anyway but it’s not likely. Why trade Wig or Nix? They’re good bench pieces. Polanco, Victorino, Pierre, and Blanton might all go and if the Phil’s pay some money towards salaries, they should get some B prospects back. They will NOT blow the team up, they’ll simply reload. Please find a spot for Dom….
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RAJ’s moves were ok this year but it is his choices the past couple years that are crippling us. They will reload only because that Comcast Contract is coming up. Pay the luxery tax now and get many more millions later in that deal
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The Phillies got themselves into this situation. There is an albatross at first base, 50 million invested in a pitcher who will only throw 70 innings, an outfielder due for a raise he doesnt deserve and your most valuable asset is due to hit free agency. If the Phillies want to survive they should just blow by the luxury tax for a year or two.
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Phillies really need to make a decision on the direction of this team. The Yankees traded for Ichiro so there is one less trading partner for Victorino now. I am afraid that there are going to wait too long and the value of our trade assets will be diminshed greatly.
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On the good side with regards to the big league club, it has been really nice these last few weeks, to have some guys who have the ability to hit it out of the park, in the middle of the lineup.
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Anyone know why Victorino was pulled after 1 AB tonight ?
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I don’t know if it’s why he was pulled, but he got hit by a pitch in that at-bat (the first base umpire wrongly said he swung, which is why it’s a K).
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Precautionary reasons after getting HBP in the 1st.
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I still think there is a way to sell and buy at the same time. Don’t start to scroll down now. Hear me out. St. Louis in 2011 and Colorado in 2007 both made to WS by crazy comebacks, who says we can’t. We have enough assets to keep in moderate contention. NOTE: these returns would be high end, but realistic.
Trade Joe Blanton to Cleveland for
OF Jordan Smith- 6’4 205 L/R- Low-A kid can rake, similar bat to Dugan
LHP Mike Rayl- 6’5 180 Lefty in High-A, high reward pitcher poor man’s Biddle
Trade Shane Victorino to Dodgers for
RHP Allen Webster- Sinker Ball Starter- ETA 2013
UTIL Alex Castellanos- Right Handed Bench Utility Player- ETA 2012
Trade Laynce Nix to Boston for
RHP Noe Ramirez or Justin Erasmus- Low-A pitchers with big potential. Erasmus, pitched for South Africa in 2009 WBC.
Trade Ty Wigginton to San Francisco for
CF Juan Perez- 5’11 speedster in AA who is being squeezed out of the Giants org.
Then….
-Tyler Cloyd will be called up from AAA, Kyle Kendrick optioned to AAA. Kendrick would work in the back end of the Lehigh bullpen, Something tells me he could be a great late inning sinker baller.
-Either trade minor leaguers for a Big League average Reliever, or claim a player off of waivers who was DFA’d by a team making an acquistion.
-Bring up Dom Brown for obvious reasons
-Trade for left handed bat or keep Laynce Nix. Bring up Luna for Wigginton or keep Castellanos in MLB.
Its enough to clear salary but not too much to get out of contention. Then trade Pence in offseason for a Third Baseman, he will have a better market then. Resign Hamels, and bring in Bourn.
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RAJ is nervous now
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No reason to trade Nix. I also think that trade for Vic is pretty bad, and I’d much rather have the supplemental pick.
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Ortiz is injured and Boston could use a Bench Bat preferably Left Handed, and it never hurts to get young arms
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but you have Nix under control for next year, fairly cheap
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I think they could get a much better package for Victorino. If they can’t, I wouldn’t even trade him.
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Now that Turner went to Miami for Infante and Sanchez, along with a good catching prospect, I agree. Ruben could force the Dodgers hand
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Anyone know why Quinn was removed after one at bat?
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Heard they were calling him up all the way from Low-A to replace Rollins who was just traded. I’m Kidding, probably injured and taken out for precautionary reasons
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Franco another homer not bad for 19
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They should trade Victorino to the Rangers for Mike Olt and Cody Buckel.
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lol
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I know, I can play this too: Blanton for Trout.
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Blanton for Middlebrooks and Brown for Jason Donald
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Thanks John. 🙂
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Whoa! Blanton is too much for Trout, maybe if Trumbo was thrown in they would talk. Haha
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I wasn’t kidding around. I honestly think the Phillies can get a package similar to this for him. What if they some how traded for Hanley Ramirez and traded Polanco? The Orioles have interest in Polanco.
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There’s no way the Phillies get a package like that for Victorino. No. Way.
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You are overvaluing Victorino by a wide margin, especially since he’s going to be a FA. This isn’t fantasy baseball.
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I’d like to trade Victorino to Pittsburgh for Grossman and maybe a Jeff Locke type who could pitch at the back end of our rotation next year for the league minimum. Then shift Kendrick into a set up type role.
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Thank you so much for having the same belief that Kendrick could be a back end pitcher, He needs to be sent down while he has options so he can get some work in to possibly be the go to guy for ground balls.
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I like Grossman as I think he is undervalued since he does not have great ‘tools’. From what I read he has okay speed but is predicted to be an average RF. Why not a CF? In CF his limited power but high OBP and slight speed would play much better.
I’d like to get one of the Pirates young pitchers also but I think Heredia is now too valuable. Locke would be a good choice as a 5th starter candidate. I’d like to retry Allie as a pitcher if he was a throw-in.
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I would worry about moving Allie, back. To say to a kid with an electric arm, lets move you to third, only to tell him months later he has been traded, then to have the new team move him back to the mound would be a little tough for him to handle. Not everybody is a Joe Savery, with the arm of Juan Morillo
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honestly if they want to fix this while staying in contention they may just have to blow by the luxury tax for 2 or 3 years.
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I realize the arguments to the contrary, but I’m not interested in that discussion. I’d much prefer to blow it up. Just the possibility that we may do so keeps my attention…otherwise, nothing to see here folks, moving on to my endless grad school homework.
We have plenty of value locked up in aging, expensive talent, who seem as bored as the audience. This is value we will lose in a futile attempt to compete with the much more interesting, rising clubs in our division. If we blow it up, we can accelerate the turnover and come back with a vengeance. If we continue to fool ourselves with RAJ and co, we’ll have a barely competitive club for a couple seasons, before sucking for the rest of the decade.
I’m just sick of these guys. I don’t like watching them. I accidentally caught a Nats/Braves game last week, trying to watch the Phils on MLBTV…and it was the most fun I had watching baseball all year. Watching those clubs made me jealous. I want to be entertained by exciting, energetic youthful talent wearing our uniform.
That being said, I’d trade everyone worth at least a B- prospect. I’d even consider trading Worley, if he’d bring a talented package. I don’t want to choose between Lee and Hamels; I’d rather trade both and have the 5-6 prospects who’d surely break our top 10. I don’t want to choose between Pence and Vic; again, I’d trade both and replace them with Brown and a young CF. If someone wants Rollins, they can have him. I’d even trade Utley, as hard as those words are to type…major league GMs know better, but comment sections are full of other teams speculating about Utley…I mean, if you could really get something for him: why not?..but thats completely unrealistic.
These types of deals might work:
Hamels to STL for 2B Kolten Wong, SP Carlos Martinez, 3B Zach Cox, SS/IF Ryan Jackson
or
OF Oscar Taveras, SP Trevor Rosenthal, 3B Zach Cox, RHP Joe Kelly, OF Charlie Tilson
or
SP Lance Lynn, 3B Matt Carpenter, 2B Kolten Wong, SS Ryan Jackson
something like that…would even throw something else in to get the package I want.
I really like the Cards system: electric arms and infielders who can hit. They probably have 10 prospects I really like. We won’t get 4 or 5 prospects, but I’d gladly take a package of Martinez/Lynn/Miller, Wong and Cox. Taveras is amazing…I’d take a chance on Tyrell Jenkins too. MLB ready infielders like Jackson and Carpenter are just useful, especially if we trade the ones we have.
Pence to Pittsburgh for CF Sterling Marte, RHP Luis Herida, OF Robbie Grossman, SS/2B Alen Hanson
of course I’d start by asking for Taillon or Cole. It would kill me to do this deal but Marte alone makes it worth it. I’d check about Josh Bell but his K/BB was scary before he got hurt. The Pirates might consider adding James Taillon or Gerritt Cole to rent Cole Hamels for the rest of this year.
Pence is worth shopping around the league, but this package could take the string off of last year’s franchise-killing deal. Marte would take over in CF and Grossman might end up joining him in LF, they lack the power you want in the outfield. Herida is a raw 6’6″ teenager who cost the Pirates a fortune to sign out of Mexico. Hanson has been hitting as well as any middle-infielder in the minors, to crack BA’s top 50 mid-season list.
Polanco to Os for 2B Jonathan Schoop (if we’re lucky)
or one of 3B Delmonico or Esposito, plus whatever arm seems useful
Cliff Lee to the Angels for
SS/2B Segura, 1B CJ Cron, 3B Kaleb Cowart, SP Garrett Richards.
other Angels prospects I like: RHP Hellweg, RHP Cam Bedrosian, LHP Nick Maronde and 2B Taylor Lindsey…there could definitely be a decent package coming our way
or to the Rangers for
3B Mike Olt, CF Leonys Martin, LHP Martin Perez
if they won’t give up Olt, they can throw in RHP Tanner Scheppers and RHP Cody Buckel
Shane Victorino to the Giants for 3B Chris Dominguez and SS/2B Joe Panik
Rollins to LA Dodgers for LHP Chris Reed, OF Joc Peterson, RHP Angel Sanchez
Of course whichever trades we make first would alter our future demands, but one or two of these deals could completely restock our farm system and make our future significantly brighter. At least it would give us something to watch.
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And in what sport would these trades be made???? Sure not Baseball. You might as well throw McCutchen and Walker into that Pence deal.
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Whoa….even Obama didn’t promise that much change in 2008.
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Hahaha what did you do? Go through each teams top 5 prospects and use that as your trade scenario’s? Thanks for the laugh.
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Top 15 prospects, yeah. I’m glad you guys got a kick out of reading it cause i got a kick out of writing it. I don’t even watch baseball anymore; I quit when we traded for Pence. Just subtract one or two names from every trade proposal. Sorry for acting as if every other GM is Rube.
Pence for Marte + two players still seems doable to me…but I’d rather get him for Vic+Aumont. Who else would want Pence? Probably a lot of teams.
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Guys, he’s in grad school so he knows what he’s talking about.
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Well, I’m in grad school too, so maybe my opinion can cancel out the above: the idea the Cardinals would trade Oscar Taveras for a rental, even a rent-a-Hamels, is the craziest thing I’ve seen on this site in weeks. And I read all of marfis’s posts.
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Or Lance Lynn plus others for two months of hamels………..
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RAJ,
How about doing something? Don’t give me the BS we are still in this thing-we are not! The market is moving and Victorino has one less suitor now. I believe they are working on Hamels and when he signs, other pieces will fall to help with payroll. They cannot send that message before signing him.
Texas has to overpay for Lee or Hamels. They are the top guys out there and Texas is not winning the World Series with Darvish and Harrison. I would think they’d give you more for Lee as he is signed for more years. I would take Olt, Martin, and an arm and run for Lee.
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Then what is our starting rotation next year?
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Victorino’s most likely suitor is Pittsburgh and continues to be. They’re really high on him.
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They have to be asking for Marte so he can take over in CF. We will have to send something with Victorino for that to happen. Maybe Victorino and Aumont for Marte.
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The Phils really shouldn’t pull the trigger on selling anyone until the Atlanta series plays out. The team usually plays very well in Atlanta and they sit 9.5 back in the WC race (10 behind the Dodgers). A sweep in Atlanta could put the team in the 6.5 games back range, maybe 7-8 back of the Dodgers. I’m not sure it’s prudent to sell if this team plays well the next week and narrows the gap under 8 games.
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Charlie, everyone forgets we are not Kansas City and are leading the league in attendance. The Phillies will not have a fire sale but they can be buyers and sellers at the same time and keep the three million ticket buyers happy.. If Pierre or Victorino brings you a good bullpen arm or a valuable piece then pull the trigger.
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In response to Supra98x,
Pence is a good complimentary piece at 12 million?? Spare me, I’d prefer to find another option for less $$. JRoll a good piece on a contender, which we are not and Vic is not having a terrible year. You are missing the fact that Pence, Rollins and Victorino swing at every pitch they see and are all in the same lineup!!! Ain’t working.
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Please suggest a less expensive option.
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It’s not just that, we see the same demonstrably wrong characterizations of Rollins, Pence and Vic that we’ve been seeing all year*. On a team where the pitching has collapsed and Howard and Utley have missed most of the year,we’re supposed to focus on the faults of 3 of our 4 best regulars? We’ve scored more runs than the first place Nationals, despite the loss of Utley and Howard.
*Not going to waste time with a detailed response to the specific charge, but Rollins and Vic are both among the league leaders in lowest swinging strike percentage. Both are indeed somewhat free swingers, though neither at all to an extreme, and both with roughly average BB%, but they make contact rather than swinging and missing.
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Part of what’s going on is that the Phillies this year, with Pierre forced into a full time role, plus Rollins, Vic, Ruiz to an extent and Polanco, is that the Phillies have become a team of contact hitters. At least their better hitters. Contact hitter tend to be somewhat freer swingers, but, as much as I am the apostle of BBs, it’s not as much a problem for contact hitters as for non-contact hitters.
The Phillies are among the best in baseball at lowest swinging strike percentage and lowest K%. They also – and yes, this is a real problem – among the lowest in BB%. But the fault there isn’t so much with their contact hitters, who tend mostly to be at least decent in that respect. Mayberry, 241 PA, 6 times as many Ks as BBs, and Galvis, 200 PA, more than 4 times as many Ks as BB, are the worst offenders, along with the absence of Utley especially, and even Howard, who can draw a walk. And among the contact guys, the players with the lowest BB% are the ones mostly escaping criticism (to be fair, in Polanco’s case because no one expects him to be much good any more).
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Just a rough back of the envelope calculation, but a healthy Utley and Howard alone likely would have meant a league average BB% or close to it. Even higher with a left fielder who could draw a walk.
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Good thing we happen to have one of those in AAA, assuming he can stay healthy for more than a few minutes.
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Cody Ross
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and honestly as bad as Pence has been in RF this season -1.2 WAR almost identical to Dom Brown in 2011, players like Andruw Jones ect ect are exact equal value as Hunter Pence. Meanwhile Pence is getting paid 5x as much.
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If you want to bank on finding 35 year old past all-star/gold glovers, and hope to sign them to minor contracts and for them to be able to play a full season at a near all-star level, best of luck.
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Pence is a much better player than Pence.
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Can’t edit… Pence is a much better player than *Ross*
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no he really isnt.
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He really is, despite Ross having a career year.
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put it this way in a vacuum where salary doesnt matter, I would take Hunter Pence over Cody Ross or a player like him. However Hunter Pence will end up getting paid 4x as much in 2013. Thats 10 million dollars that could be spent else where on the field or paid to Cole Hamels. Or you could build an ENTIRE bullpen behind Papelbon with that money. . This is why people on this blog are being so critical of Pence. Hes getting paid to produce to at a level hes not even sniffing and hes only going to get paid more.
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Well, Ross is outperforming his salary, this year. The reason he only got $3M is because he was below average the two years prior. I would absolutely agree that we should sign every guy we can at $3M if we can be assured they will put up a career year. Unfortunately, I don’t think any club has a crystal ball. As for Hunter, $10M is pretty much the going rate for guys that are just below all-star level.
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I agree. Hunter Pence is not worth what he’s getting paid, but that’s the market rate and people have to get with the program.
And Michael Bourn will be getting something similar once he hits FA, and for at least 4 years.
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Pence is a nice right hand bat, but what scares me and i said it before is his defense. and guys like rollins and victorino, make contact, but what good is it. if they dont use there speed if they keep popping up or hitting weak fly balls. maybe i only watch games where they do it,but victorino drives me nuts, with those weak pop ups or fly balls,keep the ball on the ground and take advantage of your speed, All these trade rumors with pence going. how do you replace his right hand bat, not ross please. bourn will want a ton and is a perfect leadoff hitter for this team, but i still am on the fence about giving him 5 yrs or better at big money, would have been nice if one of the toolsy outfielders was ready to help. and a outfield of bourn and brown, just makes us so lefthanded,
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Signing Bourn would be a huge mistake.
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..but he is good friends with JRoll and RyHo according to Wheels.
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I am stupid and I know it, so could someone tell me why you put mayberry in against geinke tonight, Mayberry cant hit a offspeed pitch or curve and you use him against his stud. makes no sense, but charlies moves never do.
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Mayberry has so much better defense in the outfield than Pierre, for what Charlie was probably guessing would be a pitchers duel.
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Kid makes one diving catch and he is our new left fielder. Juan Pierre is an asset to any team.
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RAJ’s decision is getting tougher and tougher. 3 great wins, bench is alive, see what the 2011 Cardinals did, yet the Phils remain 9.5 gb, ugh
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Crazy trade ideas and I mean probably a little (or a lot) beyond possibilities.
Trade Pence + 10Million to PIT for Tallion or Marte
Trade Hamels to TEX for Olt and Perez/Martin
Keep Victorino offer him $12.5 if he stays we have him 1 year and only 1 (2 if you upgrade from Brown or Myaberry in LF) OF if he leaves we get a compensated something better than we would in a trade.
Trade Pierre and any other Bench player for whatever you can get!
Why I feel this is VERY unlikely but has a small chance of happening. Although Turner lost value and is now a possible #3 SP him and Brantley were a decent price to pay for a good SP with a near 4 era and IF having a great year!
If we are going to dream DREAM BIG.
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Hate to burst your bubble, but this isn’t happening
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Thanks Evan way to read things properly. I said words like C razy and beyond possible and this was pipe dream at no time did i think this could happen its like best dream case scenario. But thanks for saying your wonderfully insightful input on what i already said.
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I’m sorry for not fully reading, total mistake. I have just been used to bogus deals that people suggest over the last week that I just saw the name instead of fully reading. Sorry
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Hamels resigned, sweet!
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^beat me to it!
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@bergeraj, Here is my dream. Lee/Victorino/Blanton/Savery to Texas for Olt/Martin/Scheppers/Grimm.
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To be honest if we traded those 4 for Olt, Martin, and just 1 of Scheppers/Grimm I would take it in a heart beat
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Rumor has it Phillies asking for Brad Lincoln and Minor Leaguer for Victorino. Pirates countered with Jared Hughes and Minor Leaguer. Phillies said no.
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Interesting. That means they understand K/BB is more important than ERA.
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Dodgers got Hanley Ramirez for a bag of chips. Wow. I mean Hanley has a problem attitude but he did have skills.
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Ramirez also still has a lot of $$$ on his contract. Didn’t see if the Marlins are eating any of it but probably not much based on what they got back.
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Well, you guys all got your way and it appears that Hamels will be re-signed.
Here’s the hoping that they play the Brewers (namely the bullpen) every night.
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Everyone got their way.
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I guess only time will tell – hopefully it works out better than Howard & Lee’s abysmal deals.
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How is Lee’s deal abysmal? He’s only in the second year of it.
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Or Howard’s, for that matter. Look at how the lineup has performed since he’s returned, gimpy leg and all. And look at the contracts handed to Pujols and Fielder after Howard’s. I think his deal will be looked upon favorably when all is said and done.
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I think that Hewitt becoming an all star major league outfielder is more likely than Howard’s contract being a decent value. And if you have been following my posts, you know what I think of Hewitt. The fact that two much better (at this stage of their careers) first basemen were also given bad (though not as bad) contracts from a team perspective does not justify the horrendous Howard deal.
To get an idea of how bad the deal is, if Howard somehow turned back the clock to his level of play in 2009 (he has not been close to that since), and somehow miraculously maintained that level throughout the contract, he would “only” be overpaid by about 25 million dollars throughout the life of the contract. And, for the record, given the FA market, if that miracle somehow occurred, I’d be okay with overpaying a little, and even concede in retrospect that the deal made sense. But that’s about as likely to happen as .. well, you know. Even in the extremely unlikely event that he can maintain his current 2012 SSS level of hitting, his already poor defense and base running have further declined to the point that they seriously detract from his overall value. And those areas of his game are hardly likely to improve as he gets into his mid 30s.
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seriously WTF is up with you guys… Charlie F my Life Hustle trying to give the entire team away, Bob the Giants fan who’s got a hard-on for cody MFing ross… and now someone bitching about signing an ace in his prime who is home grown, what the hell is the world coming to?
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I should have clarified – If someone can take Lee’s contract off our hands (and get a stud prospect in return), I’m fine with the signing.
This isn’t as much as a criticism of Cole as it is the Phillies current situation. These last two miracle wins (well, not really the Phillies doing, more of the Brewers bullpen absolutely imploding) have too many people thinking – Yes! We still can do it this year!
Sell while you can. Don’t get caught up in this fools-gold “We still have a chance” mentality that people are starting to get caught up in. They’re absolutely finished this year, and if they don’t make changes, they’ll be finished next year too.
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They’ll make changes the way big market teams make changes — through free agency. Dealing big pieces in their primes is what Kansas City does.
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Okay … first of all, putting Lee’s contract in the same category as Howard’s is a big mistake. The short attention span (combined with over reliance on flawed metrics) of Philies’ fans vis a vis Lee is typical but depressing.
That said, while there is every reason to expect Lee to rebound (and he hasn’t been nearly as bad as his W/L record, and not even as bad as his ERA), his performance, and Halladay’s, do point out why big, long term contracts to starting pitchers are more risky than such contracts to position players, all else being equal (the problem with the Howard contract is that, even forgetting about risk, it is just horrible on a dollars for expected value basis – not true of Lee, Hamels, Halladay). They are more injury prone and a little less consistent year to year.
But that said, in Hamels you have a guy only 28, probably a top 10 starting pitcher in baseball, far and away the player on the current roster with the most expected value over the next few years. Risky, but a good risk (a better risk than the Lee deal, even though I defend that deal). Again, not to knock the Lee deal, but for perspective, at the END of Hamels contract he will be the same age Lee is now. (Well, a few months older.)
The fact is, there are plenty of reasons why a tear it down strategy makes no sense. And really the only reason not to sign Hamels (and note that it was probably a slightly below market deal), given the Phillies’ financial resources, would be to pursue such a strategy.
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I do think that there is an argument for trading Lee, depending upon the return. OTOH, trading a star when his value is down is usually a mistake, and trading him would pretty much mean giving up on next year. Which I can see why people around here would be okay with that – kind of a compromise between a win now strategy and a tear it down strategy. But I can’t see the team doing it.
If they do, it better be for Olt plus 2-3 lesser prospects, at least. And I can see why Texas would be reluctant to do that.
I do think it is hilarious that some people seem to think that trading Lee and others would HELP their chances next year. Apart Vic, who is gone after this year, any other potential trade, while perhaps helping in the long term, will hurt next year.
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What was your way Matt?
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Trade for Olt (or some other combination of top flight prospects).
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I think we can still do that and must do that but I think we kept the right pitcher.
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Six years, $137.5 million, per Rosenthal. Hamels gets paid and the Phillies keep their homegrown ace lefty, giving them a top of the rotation guy through 2018. All this, and I won’t have to read the phrase “trade for Olt” for the rest of the season!
The Ramirez trade is shocking … a 28-year-old slugging shortstop with multiple All-Star appearances for a bucket of balls and a rosin bag. The wheels have fallen off that wagon in a way I haven’t seen since Andruw Jones. Something is clearly up with that guy …
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Thought it was $144M, but whats 5/6 million at those strato numbers!
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THe $6 mill is buyout if neither player nor team option is picked up for 7th year. The guarantee is $144M.
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It’s really time to write a piece or to see if you can find an article for your Media Reports section on Mike Cisco. He seemed to be struggling through 2010 like he might have peaked at AA or High A, but the last two seasons he has been fantastic. He went 8-0 for Reading (AA) last year and has continued his success this year at Lehigh Valley (AAA). Both of these past years he has posted a miniscule earned run average of around 1.60. With the Phillies bullpen blowing a lot of games this year, I don’t see why Cisco hasn’t gotten “The Call” to Philadelphia yet.
It’s time for an article on him, if only ro find out what he has done differently these past two years to produce his current success tha he hadn’t done in the past.
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This is easy, there’s no spot for him right now. Papelbon, Kendrick, Diekman, Bastardo are not going anywhere. Horst has pitched well, Schwimer has picked it up lately. That leaves Savery, and he’s the long man. If Cisco comes up for Savery, he won’t be pitching much. Leave him at Lehigh and let him get his work, he’ll be up by September. And then he can battle it out for a bullpen job in 2013.
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Cisco is a good story, but I have a hard time putting him above any of these guys for 2013 — Pap, Bastardo, Diekman, Schwimmer, Defratus, Bonilla, Stutes, Rosenberg, Aumont.
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I saw Cisco last week he was very similar to Brummett, this is what I came away with:
– Michael Cisco/Tyson Brummett- Very similar pitchers who have come up through the system together much like Stutes/Worley. Both may top out at the Triple-A level, don’t expect any of them to reach the majors pre-September 2013. If I was to pick one it would be Cisco, he is more versatile, has more upside, and has better stuff than Brummett.
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Kendrick is the long man
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Rangers are interested in Josh Johnson, Ruben needs to move fast and get Lee in their headlights for their stretch run in the AL West. Take the contract off the Phillies hands, and then Lee for Olt.
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I’d rather have Lee.
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I’m not sure trading for more hitting is the right move here. The phillies biggest problem right now is their pitching. Matter fact, with Howard and Utley having OPS’s in the 900+ (howard) and 800+ (utley) range, I’m MORE then content with our offensive production.
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Our third base production is among the worst in the league.
I’m not sure Texas would be willing to give up Olt if they’re going to pay Cliff Lee’s salary.
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I would be very worried about Halladay. They keep saying that he is fine and just needs to locate better and indeed his pitch location has been atrocious of late, but he is also throwing his fastball at 89-90 instead of 93-94. This has been noted before, but it could have been attributed to his muscle strain. His continued lack of velocity after he is supposedly recovered from the strain is ominous.
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I concur…..we’ve seen it so many times before when guys lose that much velocity!
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Agreed. We probably won’t know what we have in Halladay until later this year or even next year. And don’t look now, but Worley’s velocity is down too. With a younger pitcher, however, those velocity dips are not always permanent (a few years ago Aumont was in the high 80s too).
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With Worley, I have heard him say that he purposely doesn’t throw too hard in order to have better control. However, he does seem to be throwing slower this year and his record is nowhere near as good as last year.
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Remember Worley is pitching through minor elbow discomfort from his earlier injury, and will probably have surgery on it after the season, so I’m not surprised or worried about his drop in velocity long term, but it might be hurting him some this year.
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And he is only 35-years old.
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Anybody want to take a flier on Scott Mathieson next year? 2 -0, 1.85 ERA, 46 Ks and 10 BBs in 39 IP. He also has 9 saves. It’s in Japan but those are pretty good numbers and we signed Vogelsong out of Japan and he’s revived his career nicely in SF.
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I wish Scott the very best, but I’d pass on that. He’s never really had a problem against players that aren’t able to hit a very fast yet straight, poorly located fastball.
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So … next year’s payroll situation after the Hamels signing … it’s tight. Assume Hamels’ contract is a little back loaded, so “only” 20 million for next year (obviously it could be a little lower, but likely not much).
(1) 3 starting pitchers, 4 regular position players, 1 closer, one swing man, one bench player signed for roughly 132 million.
(2) Worley as a relatively low cost 4th starter, a number of low cost relievers/bench players. Say seven million for Worley, 5 relievers, 4 bench players.
(3) Pence … could still be traded, if not about 14 million arb for your right fielder.
Leaving, assuming a static luxury tax threshold, some room for mid season moves, and the team stays under the tax … wow, only about 12 to 17 million for a fifth starter, 2 regulars in the outfield, and a third baseman (obviously one hopes Brown is one of the outfielders. Going to be tight.
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Actually, it is a little worse than that. That doesn’t include the full cost of picking up Ruiz’s option, only the amount they would have to pay if they declined it, which of course they won’t.
I do think that, if they are not over the luxury tax this year, they would go over next year. But when the dust settles it looks like they may be over the tax this year, and I think they will avoid the penalty of going over 2 years in a row.
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So the question is: does dumping Blanton, Victorino and Polanco in a waiver clearance deal in August get us under the luxury tax threshhold for this year so we can bring our financial firepower to bear next year.
I am also really shocked about how highly Victorino is valued throughout this thread, in my opinion overvalued. At the plate, it could very well be that his performance at the plate is the result of a down year, but his speed and range in CF (no longer gold glove quality) are only going to get worse. His arm has never recovered from that injury a few years back so it is not as though he will bring value at a corner outfield spot in future years when his range in centerfield is no longer acceptable. Other teams have scouts, I cannot see him getting a substantial multiyear deal. He has cost himself tens of millions this year.
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To be clear I was talking about dumping Blanton and Victorino at the deadline, then putting Polanco on waivers in August once he comes back from the DL.
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From other reports I’ve read since I posted, it does seem like the team doesn’t think they will be over the limit this year, and they are willing to go over next year.
OTOH, some of the other assumptions I made were probably too optimistic.
That said, to the extent that they have any money to spend in the FA market, I see then spending it on a center fielder. That or resign Pierre, much as I would hate that move in some respects. Mayberry in CF is not a serious option IMO. And of course they need to slot Brown in left – really, at this poin tthere is no option, he has the job next year assuming he is healthy.
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If they could find a way to fit Galvis into the infield along with Utley and Rollins (assuming Utley’s availability at the beginning of next year), it would be a great help. Galvis at SS and Rollins at 3B (or vice versa) wouldn’t be an offensive upgrade over this year, but it would be cheaper without hurting the defense or the offense. Brown in LF is another cheap option that I believe will improve the lineup. That leaves CF, which they could in a worst case scenario fill with Mayberry or fill through free agency. I could see it being Bourn, although I question whether he’d be worth the type of contract he will command.
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Look, given the team’s contraints, your suggestions actually could make sense. But that’s more an indication of how serious the payroll constraints are than of the virtue of the suggestions. Galvis is not an upgrade over Polanco, maybe a downgrade (certainly worse offensively than even Polanco, an improvement defensively only if you buy that Polanco is in steep decline defensively). Mayberry is probably 4 wins a season worse than Victorino in center field, much worse in every aspect of the game. Brown in left I do like.
I mean, I know you aren’t really disagreeing, but 2 of those three players are not really good options for a team who expects to contend (though Galvis might be some day, I doubt it will be next year).
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The last thing I’d advocate for is Mayberry as your everyday CF. I just don’t see a lot of options worth committing to for the long-term on the free agent market. Bourn, BJ Upton, Cabrera, Pagan … these don’t scream multi-year deal to me. This is where Tyson Gillies was supposed to step in on the cocktail napkin lineup RAJ drew up in late 2009, but I digress …
I agree Galvis is a modest offensive downgrade from Polanco, at least at this stage of his career (I do believe he has room for improvement). I think his defense, particularly at SS (pushing Jimmy, who has the arm, to 3B) would mean an overall upgrade for the infield. And, again, there’s really nobody out there to sign that’s a huge improvement.
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Good ideas that you presented Mike.
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Rosenthal reporting that the Phils continue to talk with the Dodgers about either Vic or Pence. Can’t imagine the Dodgers have the prospects to pry Pence away, particularly with the shambles it would leave the outfield in next season.
http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/phillies-talk/MLB-Rumor-Rundown-Vic-or-Pence-to-LA?blockID=746069&feedID=693
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Dodger’s OF prospect Joc Pederson to start, then not sure after that.
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I wouldn’t trade him for Pederson, even the if “after that” is Zach Lee, their top prospect.
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Then you will be one mighty diappointed man if Pence does go West to the Dodgers, since Lee and Pederson are arguably two of their top 5 prospects.
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Oh, I absolutely agree. I don’t think LA has the system to have an offer I’d accept for Pence.
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I highly doubt the Marlins move Giancarlo Stanton, but if they even think about it, every team has to give some thought to inquiring, including the Phils, although the only thing dumber than the Marlins trading him, would be to do it within their division. Assuming we would be trading prospects or young major leaguers for him, what does everyone think it would take to get a deal done for him?
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Threatening to detonate a nuclear device under their new stadium. But if they traded him, they might as well blow it up. Are you insane?
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Nope super, not insane, just asking a hypothetical, what if question.
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The entire Phillies farm system would not be enough to get Stanton.
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Hamels and Domo Brown may get it done. But can they afford Dom Brown!
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Seriously? Hamels is much more of a premium… i’m not sure that’s even wise strait up, let alone with d. brown…
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But it gets it done, as the question the poster BuddyB asked.
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no it doesn’t, if you can’t understand why, there’s really nothing that can be done for you
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Brown, Biddle, and LG would not get it done, but would absolutely get their attention.
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Phils sweep a series! Say what you will about Howard and how he isn’t worth the money they are paying him, but the whole is more than just the sum of its parts. Having Howard in the lineup gives the whole team confidence and they just seem to win more often. Small sample size, but in games in which Howard has played this season, they are 8-6. Without Howard in the lineup, they are 11 games under .500.
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Avoiding the controversy of line up protection, the addition of Howard and Utley really stretches the line up. The line up now goes 6.5 deep (I don’t want to credit the LF platoon too much) and goes another deep with Ty in the lineup (but the defense is horrendous). There is no longer a void after 4 or 5 and you can sustain offense and rallies. It may not be the best line up in the majors but now you are no longer concerned that they can’t score more than 2-3 runs because there is no power. The end thing with Howard is he is wildly overpaid by any metric but he is not a terrible player he just is paid like a superstar.
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On this team, not only is Howard a superstar but he is The Superstar. Unfortunately, there is no metric to evaluate what he means to this team, but if you’ve been watching this season, you have seen his value in the way they played before he got back and since his return.
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Well, I won’t be able to convince SIFPA of this, but for impressible fans following this:
What one would like to see in these arguments is some actual evidence. Does not have to be numerical; I get that the whole point is that there are things which can’t be measured. That’s even true in some cases. But some kind of evidence – just what, exactly, does Howard do that doesn’t show up in the metrics? Saying that these subtle intangibles are only evident if you watch the team doesn’t cut it – what specifically are you seeing that makes you conclude that Howard is doing things that don’t show up in the metrics?
Now, SIFPA does present a sort of evidence – the team’s record. Okay, let’s look at that. Ignore for the moment the facts that wins and losses are a team endeavor, and attributing a better record to one player over a 14 game span is silly. Let’s ignore the fact that even those of us who know for a fact that Howard is overpaid and over rated would happily concede that he is an upgrade over the team’s replacement first basemen. Ignore the fact that the recent “surge” has also coincided with the return of Utley, who is, I think even those sceptical of metrics would agree, a bigger upgrade over our replacement second basemen. Let’s ignore the fact that the team had several 14 game sequences without Howard where they did as well or better (e.g., 10-4 from 5/13 to 5/26).
Even ignoring all of that, we are talking about the difference between 8-6 and 6-8 (the team’s prior w/L% times 14 games). Two more wins. Six of those eight wins have been by one run. So basically, in order to credit Howard, and not Utley and the rest of the team, with those two wins, you need to essentially say that Howard is the reason the team has been winning the close ones recently. And that seems untenable to say the least.
And what about the “metrics?” AgaIn, the burden of proof is on the people saying that Howard has some magical superstar power not reflected in the numbers. But let’s look at the metrics. They show that Howard has, indeed, been hittting very, very well since his return. So well that, if he keeps it up, the claims of his defenders will be … well, more tenanble. Now, given his performance over the past few years, it doesn’t seem likely that he will keep that level of hitting up. But if he does, the metrics will show it.
Of course the metrics also show he’s much worse than average as a fielder or base runner. And indeed, those metrics are less reliable than hitting metrics. But can anyone who has SEEN HIM PLAY doubt that he is a well below average fielder and base runner, especially at this stage of his career?
And as for “The Superstar,” over Howard’s career he has not had nearly the vlaue that Utley has. Not even close. One doesn’t need advance metrics to see that (though the metrics do show that). You have a much better than average fielding, good base running second baseman hitting almost as well (as well, I would argue, but again let’s ignore the advanced metrics for a minute) as a poor fielding, poor base running first baseman. Given how much better the average first baseman hits than the average second baseman, how could you not rank the second baseman higher. You can argue that the massive advantage that Utley has using modern metrics is exagerated, but you can’t argue that Howard has been better. Well, you can argue it, just not credibly.
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I love both of them. Why argue when you can see what a difference both have made to the line-up. Thanks for your metric analysis though. It is always helpful to read such sobering material even when we are so joyous at what they have done over the past four games. Go Chase. Go Ryan..
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I know most of the newer baseball logic doesn’t put much importance into numbers with RISP and runners on base, but I wonder if the metrics take that into account at all. Over his career, Howard is a much better hitter with runners on base than with the bases empty- his OPS is over .100 points higher. And obviously, getting hits with men on helps the team more than getting hits with no one on.
For most guys, RISP numbers are affected by sss, but most guys don’t see the shift that Howard does. When guys are on-base for him, the shift is less pronounced, which could make it easier for him to get hits.
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Handzus, I respect that you are making an actual argument with actual evidence. But you are wrong. Howard has a higher OPS (career wise) entirely because of intentional BB. Remove those and he is hitting just what you would expect with RISP (a tad – only a tad – above his overall numbers, but that is typical, mainly (entirely?) because pitchers pitching from the stretch are less effective). He has not, on a career basis, hit particularly well (or poorly) with RISP. His RBI totals are a result of two factors: the fact that over his career he has had more opportunities with RISP than any other major league player, plus his undoubted power hitting skills.
He did, fwiw, hit very well with RISP last year. SSS. Most metrics do not incorporate success with RISP for that reason – variations from the norm are almost always a result of SSS luck. They don’t hold up from year to year. There’s an argument to be had that RISP should be incorporated into advanced metrics (some metrics do include that) anyway, but it would not, on a career basis, add value to Howard.
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Somewhat poorly worded – obviously, Howard is an above average hitter – well above average – in any situation. The point is, his hitting with RISP, relative to his hitting overall, is no better than average.
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Howard always hits well with RISP. That is why he has so many RBI even though his HR rate is down. The man is an RBI machine.
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The only ptoblem with that is that it isn’t, you know, true.
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Depends on how you look at it. He is an RBI machine, but that is because he has a ton of guys on base in front of him (more opportunities) not because he hits particularly well with RISP (is ‘clutch’).
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I didn’t want to look too far into it, and I don’t know where to find stats that compare league average performance with RISP or men on base compared to bases empty. I looked at some other power hitters- Ortiz, Giambi, Dunn. Only Giambi had an OPS with men on significantly better than with the bases empty. He has even more of a difference than there is with Howard actually. How common is it to have an OPS with men on base about .100 points higher than with no one on? (or in Howard’s case, .123 points)
Yes, part of that is because of the IBB. But his BABIP is also unsurprisingly higher, supporting the “no shift” theory. His ISO is also higher. Maybe that could be attributed to pitchers being worse out of the stretch.
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What the BABIP stat shows is that hypothesis’ that conclude Howard loses upwards of .100 a year in BA by refusing to hit the ball the other way are true.
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I knew that someone would bring up Utley and he certainly is a very good player with a lot of skills. However, when Utley was out at the beginning of last season, the team was 28-10. What was their record this year with Utley and without Howard? 1-7? Sure it is a small sample size, but the addition of Utley alone did not improve their play enough to result in victories. Howard is the one who makes it go for this team. The front office apparently sees this as well, otherwise, why pay Howard more than Utley?
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I respect many of LarryM’s comments and arguments, but this constant need to downgrade Howard as a player, in order to prop up Utley is old.
No matter what statistical analysis you use to prove Howard isn’t any good, you always see the impact on the whole of the lineup, more when Howard is gone, than when Utley is gone.
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I believe the Howard contract , be it an ‘albatross’ of sorts, weighs deeply in the recesses of the consciousness of those who doubt his total worth.
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Sorry, that anonymous was I, on a different computer. Also, the record without Utley was 28-18, not 28-10. Sorry for these errors, however, the argument remains the same.
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Forget about RISP. Just look at the state of first basemen in the National League. There’s Votto, large gap, then Howard. Even if Howard goes back to a 125 OPS+, not many first basemen are even doing that. Of course the Phillies are playing better simply because there’s a huge difference between Howard and Ty Wigginton.
We’re getting to a point where Howard is becoming underrated by the sabermetric types. The competition in the National League isn’t that good, and a player of Howard’s caliber is better than we realize.
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Why do you limit your persuasive arguement to just the NL…why not all MLB? There is inter-league play now.
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From MLBTradeRumors.com:
Phillies Discussing Victorino Trades
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [July 25 at 4:00pm CST]
The Phillies are trying to trade Shane Victorino for bullpen help, Jim Bowden of ESPN.com and MLB Network Radio reports (Twitter links). They realize they’ll have to pay part of his $9.5MM salary to facilitate a trade.
The Dodgers and Reds continue to talk to the Phillies, according to Bowden. The Phillies are interested in a Victorino for Logan Ondrusek swap or a Victorino for Josh Lindblom deal, Bowden reports. The Pirates and Yankees have also been linked to Victorino. The Orioles like Victorino as well, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports (on Twitter).
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I know nothing but internet searches of scouts websites…but
I wanted Grossman from Pittsburgh (figured he’d have slightly lower value with below avg power and defense, and average speed) because he has huge OBP and the power might develop. His ceiling is way below their Top6 of Cole, Tallion, Marte, Heredia, Hanson, and Bell. I’d would not mind getting a cost controlled backup C like Sanchez but I would not pay much for him.
Brad Lincoln seems to have turned a corner this year. It could be fools gold though.
From Dodgers I really only like Allen Webster.
From Reds I’d like to get Henry Rodriquez. Projects to be backup INF type and has played mostly 2B and some 3B. Profile reminds me some of Jason Donald though likely a worse fielder.
From Orioles I’d want Schoop (too valuable to get for Victorino) or Delmonico, who I wanted Phillies to draft as a Catcher anyway.
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I’m not liking the whole Vic and Cash for Middle Reliever, but if RAJ could get Allen Webster, it would be great! I know you have just read reports, but I’ve seen Henry Rodriguez play last year in AA. Poor glove worse bat, only speed. He would have to be paired with LeCure or Ondrusek to get Vic and win the deal
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Corey Seidman of CSN Philly is reporting that Cincinnati turned down the straight up offer of Victorino for Logan Ondrusek. Is Victorino’s stock really that low or is Ondrusek that good, because last I saw we had a 6’7 reliever who throws in the low to mid 90’s in Schwimer. Ruben may have to settle for a really small deal if he doesn’t want Victorino in town.
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Uh, I find that hard to believe. But if the Phils can’t get a 27 yo reliever with a 25-19 K-BB ratio and an almost 1.40 WHIP for Victorino they might as well just keep him.
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I’m not a sabermetician but this doesn’t sound good
From Corey Seidman:
If you take a look at the advanced pitching categories, you find that Ondrusek since 2010 has actually been one of the worst 15 relievers in baseball in terms of predictive stats. He has a 4.45 xFIP, an ERA estimator that shows what a pitcher’s ERA should be based on strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed, adjusted for ballpark factors. When there’s that large of a gap between a pitcher’s ERA and xFIP, he is often a clear candidate for regression. Ondrusek’s xFIP falls right in line with Chad Gaudin and Brandon Lyon. Not the ideal return for Victorino, but then again the Phillies need all the bullpen help they can get if they want to make a wild card run.
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Kevin Frandsen notin lineup today for LHV… Is he replacing PP who went on DL??
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Yes, i think its a good idea to get a look at him, perhaps he can fill a utility role going forward
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Would Hunter Pence fetch enough prospects, for the Phillies to add Trevor May to that package, and ‘flip’ for Chase Headley?
If that’s possible the Phillies could cover RF and 3B next year for about 7-8 million, without any drop-off in production. Offering Pence arbitration and picking up Polanco’s option would be 20 million.
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I think that might be a bit of overkill for Headley, so I certainly think its possible. It all depends on how much other teams are willing to offer Chase.
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Outside of Jesse Biddle, I don’t think anybody in the Phillies pre-season top 10 (BA or PP) would be overkill, if they were added to a trade package for Headley.
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Add Tampa Bay to the list of Shane Victorino rejectees. Wade Davis for Shane and Cash denied.
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And Vinnie Pestano in Cleveland
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No wonder they turned it down. Victorino for a half year for Wade Davis and money? I’d never do that deal if I were TB.
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Catch, I suspect that the money was going the other way i.e. from the Phillies to TB. Victorino makes a few million more than Davis and even over two months, it would amount to around $2 million extra for Tampa Bay to pay, if the Phillies don’t supply any cash.
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When a player is traded with cash does the cash count towards the luxury tax threshhold?
Why is there no talk of Blanton and cash deals? As much as I rag on Victorino, from the Phillies’ perspective the dropoff from Blanton to Kendrick is not nearly as great as Victorino to whomever. Are there no fringe contenders that need an innings eater? Perhaps they know he’ll clear waivers or if someone claims him so much the better?
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We can’t even turn victorino and cash into a reliever. I doubt many people are even looking at Blanton.
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How bout Blanton and Vic for…. anything.
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Got it.
I see on MLBTR that Milwaukee is considering trading Corey Hart. I believe that would be a good idea for LF. Forget all the trade everybody jive. I believe what may interest them may involve crushing the dreams of a few message board guys, and make the centerpiece of the trade the oft-injured and enigmatic Domonic Brown. Since there seems to be a mostly media-driven concern with payroll, they can slightly more than offset Hart’s 9 million for this year (and as info, he makes 10 million next season) by including Shane Victorino and his 9,5 million salary.
( I say if Philly wins at least 2 out of 3 from the Braves this weekend, they may have to stay the course)
I would also like to add on some of the Milwaukee relievers, as they look to at least be strikeout per inning types, some of them, I say they could include Manuel Parra in exchange for Joe Savery and Jeremy Horst. So then they could have 3 LH relievers, Parra, Diekman, and Bastardo to slot into next season’s bullpen as warranted.
As to the line-up after this, for offense they got Pence, Hart, Ruiz as RH hitting in next season’s line-up, and Howard and Utley when available from the LH side. Then they can arrange some other things for CF and 3B.
So it’s :
Shane Victorino, Domonic Brown, Jeremy Horst , and Joe Savery
to Milwaukee for:
Corey Hart and Manuel Parra
Subject to keeping the core together via winning 2 or 3 vs. the Braves, and cancelling this.
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Are you insane? Corey Hart @ $9 million per or Dom Brown @ $440 grand? The Phils need as many low salary players as they can find @ this point and you want to acquire a $9 million/ year player, 6 years Brown’s senior? That makes sense. Let’s get another 30-year-old player for young talent and leave the minors completely bare.
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I like Hart…but relievers are so iffy from year to year.
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Luxury tax threshold may become an issue with Hart’s salary incorporated with others next year who are due raises. And keep in mind Chooch’s contract ‘coming soon to neighborhood theaters’.
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Exactly. That money will need to be spread among a 3B, a CF and several BP pieces. You’ve already got Brown under control for the league minimum and you want to instead pay someone $9 million?? That makes zero sense from a financial side
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I don’t buy all that luxury tax an issue stuff. it is a Tax on the overage, I believe , and not the total payroll. So , if you go over by a million , and the tax is the higher 30 % rate , then you shell out a whopping $300,000. A pittance in comparison to the entire payroll. I haven’t actually looked at the numbers, but, I don’t believe, given expiring contracts , they couldn’t be well under next season , even with all their current players.
All they need to do to retain Mr. Ruiz is pick up the option of his contract, which, I believe , is around 5 million. Worry about the year after, when it gets here.
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You need to read David Murphy’s article (http://mobile.philly.com/blogs/?wss=/philly/blogs/phillies/&id=163722956&viewAll=y#more) which breaks down 2013’s payroll to the tune of $153 million, plus $10 million in player benefits, for 16 players. This leaves them $14 million under the luxury tax threshold ($178 million). $14 million to fill 9 roster spots, and you think $9 million for Corey Hart is feasible?
Who runs a business by paying something for nothing, which is essentially what shelling out $300,000 (your # not mine) in luxury payments amounts to??
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I read all of David Murphy’s articles, and his two buddies too. Just opinions, nothing more.
I said above Corey Hart makes 10 million next season, not the 9 he made this year.
I’m interested in a RH power hitter, not another iffy LH hitter.
Even using Dave’s numbers , if you conked out the 10 million of Hart’s salary, that leaves
4 million for 8 spots, which paying minimum for each is right at the level.
Pro Sports Franchises regularly pay something for nothing, every one of them , every season. And it is usually more by a wide margin than $300,000.
And I expect , you would have been on here screaming , if Philly had paid the luxury tax to sign that other 2nd round choice?
‘
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Actually Murphy’s article isn’t “opinion”. He is writing about actual monies the Phillies have committed to certain players via contracts and what positions will be open once FA begins. Sorry – but in no way does this qualify as “opinion”.
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You can hero-worship all the philly.com guys you want. Maybe the money is committed at the time of writing, but if they trade one of those guys , then there is no commitment , and the conclusions Murphy posits about what is to be done past a certain point is very much opinion As are the many assumptions about what could be done or should be done.
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Hero worship? Are you friggin deranged? It’s an article about dollars committed in 2013, plain and simple. I’m not agreeing with his opinions on the state of the Phillies, or anything else for that matter. I’m commenting on where our payroll is now, and what we now have guaranteed for next season.
Fact is, we have $14 million to spread over 9 players. Paying $9/ $10 million for Corey Hart makes ZERO sense when there are 8 other spots to fill (with the remaining $4 million).
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marfis…you again amaze me….’I don’t buy all that luxury tax an issue stuff. it is a Tax on the overage, I believe , and not the total payroll’….when the richest sports franchise in America, the NY Yankees and David Cashman, are concerned about the luxury tax, why do you believe it to be of no significance. It has to be a penalty that no one wants to incur.
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Mostly because of a not well-known portion of the latest CBA, which states that if a team does not go over the luxery tax, it is eligible to receive all of its revenue sharing money back. So, for a team like the Yankees who routinely share in the area of $40 million in revenue, they would get that back from the central MLB fund if they can avoid paying any luxery tax. Same applies for the Phillies. It is certainly of significance. Money ALWAYS is.
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If the Phillies can get under the tax this year, I think they’re willing to go over it next year given the contracts coming off the books.
David Montgomery said as much. The Yankees want to get under the luxury tax because they’re going to get a ton of money back if they can do so.
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trade rumors are just that rumors. I cant believe any team wouldnt give up a setup reliever for a starting everyday centerfield, if he could help them win., makes no sense. victorino is fast ,and could be a difference maker everyday, not like a pitcher who cant pitch everyday,sorry these rumors are just plain stupid imo. If you wont give us anything of value for victorino. offering him arb, he wont take it and if he does he is b etter than any one year option we have. and take a draft choice.
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People talk about the financial side, talk about doing something to help the Baseball side, or the competin’ side, and to paraphrase the guy from General Motors “what’s good for the Baseball side is good for the financial side”. Within reason.
Hart’s salary would be more than offset Just by the removal of the Victorino contract, and then you can figure in other expiring contracts at the beginning of next season, and you just re-configure. I believe I posited a D. Brown for Carlos Quentin last season, and I think that one would have worked out. The team says they will be right around the $180 million payroll mark next season, no reason to be trying to lowball every position.
And , if they can’t get a big money CF or 3B, they could re-sign Mayberry for CF, not too expensive I project, and back with Pridie. The rest of the bench could be L. Nix, Frandsen, F. Galvis, and Kratz (C). All right around the minimum. They could try a Rule 5 pick at 3B, or a veteran low-cost type, or one of their guys with minor league experience like Kennelly, all right around the minimum. Add in the pitchers and the 5 main hitters I projected above, I believe they could win a few games , even with this roster.
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The issue I see with this is that Mayberry has shown to be not a major league starting OF, and neither is Pridie. Frandsen and Kennelly (seriously, you wrote Kennelly) are not major league players.
It doesn’t make sense to throw Hart $9M for a year, when you can likely get similar production from Brown, and keep him cost controlled for several years.
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Absolutely! Not only that, but you could potentially get better production from Brown @ about 5% of the cost. Sounds like a decent plan to me.
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I meant to write Kennelly as I say he could be adequate defensively and hit at least .200, and they can work in Galvis and Frandsen at 3B when needed. Frandsen has already played seasons as an MLB bench player, bats R and can play 1B,2B, 3B, some SS. The way the team is currently run, there’s too much on having “acceptable ” bench players , and not doing enough for the starting line-up. I would rather have one upgraded position and 2 mediocre positions than 3 slightly above mediocre types in order for some people to feel it is all totally acceptable to their sensibilities .
I believe this whole “must have D. Brown” stuff is based upon “holding a seat in the lunchroom for your buddy”, nothing more.
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Kennelly can hit at least .200 and this makes him an asset? Gavlis’s bat doesn’t even play @ 2B and you want to move him to 3B?
How bout Brown in LF and the using what’s left of that money to find a CF and 3B? Maybe one who’s going to hit over .200??
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I cannot say enough how thankful I am that Marfis is not under the employ of the Philadelphia Phillies.
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+1
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You wrote Kennelly again.
I don’t need another argument.
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marfis…..and you said awhile back I was ‘Immanual Kant-acious’. Sheesh!
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How funny is this one haha
http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/1275595-pittsburgh-pirates-could-they-end-up-trading-three-prospects-for-hunter-pence
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So its not just Phillies fans posting ridiculous trade proposals?
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The article itself says Pence for Brad Lincoln, that is all. Not enough. That is all. I think many of the Pence must go crowd would think it is about right. So, what’s funny about it.
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Giving up Pence of a middle reliever would be just about the worst trade of any GM over the past several years.
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It’s not just about giving up Pence for a reliever. It would be about not locking the tean into paying Pence 15 million next year.
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But they didn’t sign Cole so they could be awful next year. Pence at 14-15 for one single year is worth a lot more than a middle reliever.
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There is reports that the Giants are very interested in Pence. That trade discussion has to start with Gary Brown, right? They don’t have the depth to make it worth it otherwise, I would target Belt in that trade to play LF opposite Brown in RF. And while a serious downgrade from the current OF it could provide a cost controlled young OF for the future, but if it was up to me I would hang on to Pence unless some one blows you away
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I don’t think the Giants would give Belt for Pence, but I could be wrong. I’m for trading Pence, IF the Phillies have a serious plan for RH bat at 3b next year. I’m hoping they can figure out a way to get Headley, while moving Pence.
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Their farm system is pretty bad, and Gary Brown has been exposed in non-Cal league environment — he’s basically a slightly lesser version of Gillies, without the injuries. Not bad, but not a centerpiece. If Belt could play an adequate OF (he’s played 1B the entire year), him and Brown might still get interest — but the rest of that farm system is a mess and trying to build a trade that didn’t have both Belt and Brown would lose my interest very quickly.
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Brown’s stock has rebounded to .290/,353/.410. They could interest the Phillies in Tommy Joseph and Kyle Crick but it isn’t a good fit need wise more just grabbing value.
I think the price for Headley is ridiculously high and I don’t want the Phillies to be the ones to overpay.
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Buster Olney is mentioning the Phillies and Baltimore, as teams to watch in the bidding for Headley.
I’d guess Cody Asche and pitching, would be in the Phillies bid.
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well if we get Headley we need to trade Pence (probably) and definitely Victorino. I think Headley would be intriguing to get but parting with Asche would make me a little sad. Pitching wise what would we be looking at? Biddle or Pettibone or Morgan? 2 of those 3? Or less?
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I feel like we’re looking at a Pence like trade if we pursue Headley and that would just cripple us.
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If we could get Headley for prospects from Pence, and perhaps one mid-level prospect of our own, like Pettibone, Aumont, or Asche, then I’d jump on that. Bring up Brown for RF, and your lineup would be a lot stronger now, and two years from now.
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Yeah that would be ideal, but you don’t see many three team trades in baseball. I just don’t know how likely that is. It might be more likely that we do something like the Halladay/Lee thing in the offseason of 2010. Trade for one with a set of prospects and then trade the other for a different set of prospects.
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blanton helped improve his stock with tonight’s performance. he’s been the best phillies starter since the AS break.
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