Box Score Recap 7-18-2012

Box Score Recap

Larry Greene Jr. drew 3 walks yesterday.  And they were all off Trevor May. 

Ok, that was a cheap shot.  I all fairness, I will state that Trevor May did not have it yesterday.  Hard to deny that.

LV  REA  CLR suspended mid-6 LKW Off  WIL  GCL1  GCL2  DSL  VSL

116 thoughts on “Box Score Recap 7-18-2012”

  1. Reading has been in a tailspin for about 2 weeks or so.. Wonder what the issues that are causing so much sub par SP, fielding errors, and generally less than stellar play? Thoughts?

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  2. Is Carmona a prospect worth watching or just overmatching the younger players in the league ? He is hitting .382 now.

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    1. He’s a college kid that was one of the top hitters from a team that went to the college world series. So yah, he’s a bit more experienced that these mostly HS kids.

      Problem is that there isn’t really anywhere else to put him and get regular ABs until Seritella gets moved up.

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      1. So Jim Murphy is creating a logjam. The last thing I want to do is create another Chris Duffy conversation, but when do we think some promotions will be in order? I would say if there is some trades at the MLB level, the team is probably waiting on what it will acquire to see where to place guys for the last month of the season.

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        1. Jim Murphy is actually doing well at CLW — he’s 12th in the league in OPS. You have to adjust for league/park factors. The FSL is just a whole different animal down there.

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        2. I don’t think Murphy is the problem. They shouldn’t mind returning him to LKW if they are really ready to promote Duffy. I just don’t think they see Duffy as a prospect worth worrying about.

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    1. I think its BABIP regression. 0-7, but no Ks and a couple Line Drives. He’s fine. With a guy that big the biggest worry is the K rate. We know the power is ther and patience looks good in a SSS. If he has the contact skills as well, he’s a potential star.

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      1. +1 … all i’m worried about is K rate as well. Very high right now, but all the skills appear to be there

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  5. Wonder if Trevor is working on something. Hard to believe they would let him stay out there to get to 8 walks otherwise.

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    1. Isn’t the minors all about working on stuff? Part of learning how to be a consistently good player is figuring out how to contribute even when you are having an off day. The best way to learn that is to try to sort it out on the field.

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        1. could also be a byproduct of team’s hitting not being there to support a pitcher. Look at Cliff Lee.

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          1. 8 walks sounds like an inconsistent release to me. But I agree that the Reading offense didn’t help him out much yesterday.

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        2. So that means…he was not working on something and is just bad?

          I disagree with that. He may have had an off night, he could have been trying something new or they could have left him in to see if he could make adjustments in game…lots of good reasons they left him in there despite the walks. Heck, he could have been getting squeezed by the ump.

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          1. Sure, it’s possible that he didn’t have a feel for one of his pitches so they asked him to throw it 50 times. But bad performances are still bad news. Given the year May’s having, this game was pretty disappointing. If he doesn’t turn things around soon, he will probably have to repeat AA.

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      2. I think Nik was referring to a discussion that was in yesterday’s boxscore thread (I think?). Someone talked to a scout about minor league pitchers and he said you can’t just look at stats for a pitcher. Many times they are having trouble with a certain pitch and the coaches and development guys will tell him to throw 50% or more of that pitch. So if he was working on breaking pitches and he couldn’t get them to stay in the zone, then you can walk 8 or more. He just wanted to know if that was the case. Did anyone see him throw yesterday? What was he throwing?

        It could also be that he’s a messed up right now. He should read that Colvin article someone posted yesterday. Stop thinking and just throw.

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  6. LGJ is a walks machine, I can’t ever remember a player with a power tool like his at age 19 with so many walks, at any level. Can anyone name one?!

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      1. His K rate was 10.9 percent in rookie ball, 16.5 percent in Lakewood. LGJ is around 25 percent right now.

        Singleton projects to be the better overall hitter, although I think LGJ has more “slugger” potential.

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        2. Jeez, I wish Singleton were still on the team. He is having a heckuva year, but still I think that LGjr has more power potential. Singleton, to me, projects more as a high obp guy with decent power – maybe like a poor man’s Frank Thomas

          – Jeff

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          1. If we’re talking ceilings, I’d compare Singleton to Joey Votto and LGJ to Fielder (I do not believe LGJ will come anywhere close to Fielder, but again, just making the point of how their differences could profile on the ML level).

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            3. Their minor league numbers aren’t much different. Votto may be Singleton’s ceiling, but it’s not implausible that he reaches it.

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          1. I believe v1again is incorrect. LG has 21 BB in 129 plate appearances, which is 16.3%. Fangraphs hasn’t updated from last nights’ game.

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  7. Roman Quinn is starting to enter into “we might have a really exciting prospect” territory for me. 6 Triples this year! Yeah, there’s some concerns: too many Ks, too many errors but those are things that will be worked on (especially the errors. Worst case, he moves to 2b or CF). I love that he’s got a respectable BB%, and did I mention the 6 triples. I wonder how his speed compares to Billy Hamilton

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    1. Quinn was rate at a 80 speed in scouting reports, the max they give. That doesn’t mean that Hamilton isn’t a touch or two faster, but merely that he’s likely one of the fastest 10-20 guys in the minors.

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    2. The strikeouts are going down and walks are going up as the season progresses. I’m very excited by Quinn, particularly if he can stick at SS. That’s triples in three straight games!

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      1. I am also excited about Quinn as I am about “The Greenes”, Walding and Pointer. I may be making a few trips to Lakewood next summer.

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        1. +1 on that. If these guys all move up together and all continue to progress (some will flame out, some will hopefully step it up further), the this farm system will be really exciting over the next few years. It’s actually interesting to think that it might not be a bad idea for the big club to go into rebuilding mode, suck for a few years and then go with a youth movement

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    3. I have been checking the boxscores to see how Quinn is doing against RH pitching. He is learning to hit from the left side, for the 1st time. Pulled line drive hits off RH pitchers each of the last two nights. He is dominating LH pitching so far.

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    4. Might have been a Keith Law chat quote, where he compared the two and said no one is as fast as Hamilton, but did say basically Quinn’s speed is still “game-changing” or something of the like. Can’t remember if it was Law, though, so take that for what it’s worth.

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      1. Isn’t Law the guy that hates the Phillies – it sounds like something he would say, not giving our guy any respect by saying he isn’t the fastest guy in the league and pointing out that someone who is older and two three levels above him is better.

        ;^)

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        1. Jeff, I hope you’re joking w/ the Keith Law hate thing. He had the Phils system rated 5th overall and Dom Brown was the top prospect in baseball midway through the 10′ season. That’s a silly notion to think that he has some type of malice toward any farm system. He calls it like he sees it.

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          1. Yes, hence the emoticon. It’s a long standing joke here that Law/Goldstein/Callis etc all hate the Phillies, even though they all seem very objective and have been known to post of this site

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            1. I can kinda see the Goldstein point though. If you follow him on twitter there certain teams that he usually answers questions about over and over again. Cubs especially…

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            2. That might be a product of how different fan bases react to prospects, Goldstein is in the Chicago area and that coupled with the Cubs fans hanging all of their hope on prospects these days. From his writings and podcast Goldstein has praised the players the Phillies choose to draft (toolsy athletes), he falls for potential a bit too much, and is a velocity whore, but otherwise the “experts” don’t talk up the Phillies recently because the farm system is bad right now, it has a ton of star potential if players step up, but for every Brown there are 5 Hewitts who can’t make it to AA.

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    5. Hamilton is a bad comparison for speed because he may be the fastest player in 20+ years. The best comparison is to when people try comping command and control guys to Maddox it just isn’t fair. That being said I think that the player I hope his speed would match up with is Michael Bourn and maybe even Jose Reyes.

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    6. I think one of the BA guys was asked this and he basically said no one is Hamilton fast, but Quinn is just about as fast as they come.

      He is looking pretty good for someone who just turned 19, and from what Mitch Rupert has said, it sounds like he sure is exciting to watch.

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      2. Yeah, I think Hamilton is “Holy Shit” fast, and the numbers he is putting up are mind-boggling. I just checked his stats and saw that his AA number are 6sb in 7 games, and I thought “wow, he’s not running as much” before I realized those numbers are still pretty ridiculous. It’s pretty amusing that James’ old rule of “never compare a Minor Leaguer to a Hall of Famer” sort of applies when talking about Hamilton – and he’s only in AA. The idea that Quinn could maybe have 80 steals or so in the minors has me looking forward to watching him for the next few years.

        Given the performance of the kids at WPT and GCL, it’s going to make for a really interesting winter when we rank the top 30.

        – Jeff

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    7. Quinn has been a major upside surprise for me too. Usually players with his tools struggle a little more at the bat, especially if they are learning to switch hit. It also looks like he knows how to use his speed as a hitter – it sometimes takes years for HS hitters to realize they should not always try to hit HRs.

      The defense is a work in progress but I love that they are pushing him to stay at SS even over Tyler Greene. It is a little bit of a risk. I am assuming Quinn might make 60 errors next year at Lakewood with the rough edges we are seeing. But that still will not mean it is a mistake to keep him out there if he has the tools to improve. Even if he has to slide over to 2B I think there is more value keeping him in the infield.

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      1. For those of us who haven’t seen him play, are some of the errors attributable to his speed in that he gets to balls others would not and tries to make tough plays? Or does he struggle with routine plays as well?

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        1. Mitch Rupert has said a couple times that some of his errors would be saved by a better 1B, and by more generous scoring. Not sure what % he has seen or what % of those he would call less than Quinn’s fault.

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          1. While Mitch’s reports are probably true, I think it is pretty fair to say from the errors that Quinn is raw there. I think the scouting reports had him as a little mechanical and they were unsure of his hands pre-draft. From reports this year it does look like he has good range and a good arm. I think it is still a worthy experiment if he has a chance to stick there. He is still learning the position and it is hard to do that in the pros. There are lots of examples (Jeter) of players that make huge numbers of errors in the low minors and then improve with repetitions.

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    8. Callis, BA rated the top speedsters….Hamilton, Trout, Brown,Quinn and someone else..in the top five.

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    9. I asked Kevin Goldstein if he had Bourn or Hamilton speed. He replied no one has Hamilton speed, ever. But Quinn is really really fast.

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  8. Trevor May… future closer of the Philadelphia Phillies!!!!!!!
    Is that too much Phillies talk?

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  9. Morgan with another solid start. Maybe another start or 2 before going up to help Reading. JDTs been pitching well also. The college hitters from the 2012 draft have really been hitting well so far.

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    1. There is only one college hitter that can be described as hitting well, so far, and that’s Serritella. Perkins and Taylor have been mediocre to terrible, and Carmona is in the GCL, where his nubers are near meaningless.

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      1. “Meaningless” or not Carmona is still hitting well. You also seem to be forgetting Josh Ludy.

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  10. I know he’s old for the league and it is the VSL, but Severino Gonzalez continues to put up gaudy numbers. 75/5 SO/BB ratio, 1.87 ERA. He’s only walked eight batters total in 123 VSL innings over 1 1/2 seasons. (How many did May walk last night?)

    Not saying he’s a legit prospect, but he clearly could be moved up and challenged, no?

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    1. There is no place to move him to unfortunately. It is a shame the competition appears to be so bad in Venezuela as it may not help much in developing any prospects. Gonzalez and Parada do need a better challenge, though I still have a nagging suspicion they are just experienced pitchers with good command dominating younger players who are not that good.

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  11. Is it my imagination or are the Phils trying to build an entire Green/Greene by position team ?

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    1. They could be angling for a few different things:

      When all of the Green(e)’s make the Big Leagues, they can say, “we have a young team. We’re very Green right now”

      Earth Day Promotions – “The Phillies are going green”

      They’ll obviously be called the Green Team.

      And when Larry, Zach and Tyler all make the All-Stars, of course everyone will be Green with envy.

      Thank you. Tip your waitresses

      – Jeff

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      1. Other people around the league will say that the Grass is always greener in Philly or at least on the other side.

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          1. Hopefully big D will still be around to manage these guys……but not sure Domonic Brown will fit in…..

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  12. Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus wrote some notes on some LKW prospects. The article itself is pay only so I am just going to give a quick summation.

    Altherr – Slow, loopy swing hinders his hit tool, defense profiles better in right, still extremely raw.

    Franco – Below average hit, plus power, if he sticks at 3B good be average to slightly above major league 3B, interesting prospect in hsi words.

    Lino – Ton of tools outside of hit (good approach though), still all projection. Both Jason and Kevin Goldstein were high on Lino as an intriguing prospect on their podcast, calling him Alfaro-light.

    This confirmed that the LKW is not loaded with talent but it has some intriguing talents.

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    1. I’d call Franco’s performance this year a disappointment, though he’s still a decent prospect. Not sure what exactly is lacking in his hit tool, but his low BABIP suggests he’s not driving the ball. Hopefully he can turn it around the rest of the way.

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      1. At least July is looking to be his best month of the year by far. He can raise his profile again with a strong finish to the season.

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      2. Franco just kills the ball during the day and struggles during night games…I wonder if his vision needs to be checked

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      3. Well his line drive rate is down a bit, yes. But that’s one of the misconceptions of the BABIP debate – line drive rates can take awhile to normalize as well, and for prospects adjusting to a new level especially I wouldn’t get too worried.

        At the same time, I do think it’s fair to see this season for him as … not a set back, so much, as sort of marking time. He was a guy that people, myself included, were high enough on that some of us hoped for a real strep forward this year, and we haven’t seen it.

        Still, average to above average third basemen don’t grow on trees. Asche probably has about the same ceiling, but, despite being at a higher level in the system and with a flashy SSS BA in A+, IMO hasn’t overall shown as much as Franco yet. Some of the guys in short season ball have a higher ceiling, but who even knows who will end up at third base long term, even setting aside the enormous beta of those guys.

        Which is a way of saying that, among the players currently in the system, if I had to bet on one guy to be the Phillies’ third baseman for the second half of the decade, it would still be Franco.

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        1. I would like to see the Phils leave Franco at Lakewood for another season, if you ignore all of the other prospects around him, I think that would be best for him, due to his age. However, with Walding likely to start 2013 at Lakewood, that would mean either a rotation between 3B and DH (or another position) for the two of them, or some other move. At this point, Asche, H Martinez, and Franco aren’t screaming out that they need to start 2013 at AAA, AA, and A+ respectively, but there is time left and things can change over the winter. I personally believe that of the 4 names here, Franco has the highest upside, followed closely by Walding, then Asche, and Martinez.

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        2. To be clear, in studies of major league players, line drive percentage does stabilize reasonably quickly (though not as quickly as K%). My point, I suppose, and this is more anecdotal than anything else, but still something that I think is correct to a high degree of confidence, is that there tends to be large swings in line drive percentages among minor league players, probably a factor of taking time to acclimate to a new league.

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    1. I think Brown is completely ready. Another week or so of adjustments and they can bring him up. People are going to be pleasantly surprised with what they see. He’s bigger and stronger, he’s more comfortable in the outfield and his stroke is short and direct (no extraneous movement or pre-swing loop – he goes right to the ball now). It’s going to take a little while for him to turn up the power stroke with the modified swing, but it’s still there.

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      1. How do we know it’s still there?

        Not to jump on you, but we haven’t seen much power out of him with his new swing. Stands to reason that shortening your swing could decrease your power.

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        1. He was on a major power surge in AAA before he hurt his knee. Also all he’s been doing since he’s been back is hitting Doubles all over the joint.

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          1. Agreed and I saw a couple of those home runs. A few were moon shots, but it was a legitimate question.

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        2. He is making good contact and he is still extremely strong. Shortening one’s swing does decrease power a little bit but all you need to do is look at vintage Utley’s swing to see what a short compact swing can do. It allows you to drive more ball because you can make adjustments, it means less moon shots but more doubles and line drive HRs

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      2. We can wait on the power…we just need some guys that can get some hits in the big league lineup. So many situations where a simple single would score a run but they can’t even get that. Id be very pleased if Dom could duplicate his LHV stats in Philly…i think it would make all the difference in that lineup.

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    2. DeFratus pitched well last night, but I wouldn’t classify him as hot given the fact yesterday was only his second pro appearance this year, first since April with Clearwater

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    3. How long do we leave JDF in the minors? He’s pitched really well so far (at least the results look good), so I’m wondering if he is just in the building arm strength phase, or if not, maybe the Phils plan to call him up tomorrow, or soon thereafter?

      The bullpen is gradually starting to look better and an addition of a healthy JDF would be a big move.

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  15. What do we know about Angelo Mora?

    He’s leading off a lot for the GCL team, is stealing bases and showing a bit of pop. K/BB ratio needs work though.

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  16. Nice start for the French Canadian prospect that, for the sake of all of us, I suggest we henceforth refer to only as “JDT”.

    I think Trevor May is turning into one of the season’s biggest disappointments, along with Aumont and Austin Hyatt. (I never thought much of Hyatt, but I knew others did, so I think we can classify him as a disappointment.) Colvin’s last few weeks have taken him off the list. I give Gillies a pass based on the freak (and presumably not nagging) nature of his injury. Any other nominations? I exclude any player who has appeared in the majors from this list (so not Brown or bullpen guys.)

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    1. I won’t give Gillies a pass, because of his continued injuries. It was his problem before this year and they just don’t seem to stop.

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      1. It really is sad and frustrating because he is such a good ballplayer. I heard that his nickname in the minors is “Hamster”, which is a negative reference to his constant hamstring injuries.

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        1. Gillies might not be injured right now. Jim Salisbury tweeted that he was suspended for violating team policy.

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  17. That is so funny. I was going to post something about this yesterday but decided against it. His is one of the more daunting names ever. I took French in high school and college, but when I look at his name I don’t even try to pronounce it. I just think of him as “That French Canadian Guy” (no offense Phillippe Aumont).

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  18. Draft Spending 2012-Philly.Com: Spending by teams in baseball’s amateur draft dropped by 11 percent in the first year of restrictions imposed under the new labor contract. Teams allocated $207.8 million to draft picks, down from $233.6 million last year though still the second-highest annual total, according to figures compiled by Major League Baseball. The decline in the first round was even more pronounced, a 17 percent fall from $89.5 million to $74.3 million this year. Just 10 teams exceeded their signing-bonus pool, incurring a total luxury tax of $1.6 million. But no team reached the second level of the tax, which would cause a club to forfeit its next first-round draft pick. Under the latest labor deal, two aims were to slow spending on prospects through the draft and to get picks to sign sooner. The decline in spending was the first since 2006.

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  19. Mike Newman opens up his prospect chat on FanGraphs today with this “Mike Newman:
    We’ll be starting here in just a few minutes. Thanks to those who checked in early. While you wait, why not watch some video on one of my new favorite prospects. ”

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    2. My question in the chat:

      Comment From Nik
      Were you impressed with any of Walding’s teammates when you went to see the Crosscutters? Larry Greene and Roman Quinn in particular.

      Mike Newman: Roman Quinn yes. Larry Greene no. Tyler Greene was not really impressive either.

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        1. Newman’s takes, which are usually pretty valuable, are based on his personal scouting trips. I took the comment to mean that the Greenes were not impressive when he saw them, not that they aren’t impressive as prospects. (While certainly he could feel that way too, though at least in Larry’s case I think it is far too early to tell.)

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  20. Since it hasn’t been posted yet we figured out what happened to Gillies. Suspended by the Phillies for violating team rules.

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        2. Yep. He’s not hurt and that’s fantastic, considering his injury history. Like I said, it depends on how serious his violation was.

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  22. Thanks for the video. Please check his throwing; it has a hitch in it.

    Watch as he gets the ball and does NOT throw it without first cocking his arm. That adds a little more time to getting the ball to 1st base, etc. It is something to work on. Also watch for 5-6 lbs of muscle added in the off-season.

    On Brown: I want to mention that while Brown was having so much trouble at the plate, I said that the fault lay on the long length of his swing thereby taking longer to reach the hitting zone and suggested that they shorten it. I saw that last season and posted it here; I’m pleased they have shortened it and expect much better contact, and thus more success.

    It shouldn’t be long before they move him up to the big club. I take back my previous suggestion that he be traded as a deal sweetener. With the changes fulfilled ,he NOW deserves a shot! I am optimistic about his contributions to be added along with his youth.

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  23. Can you think about have three guys at the top of the lineup with the kind of speed that Gillies, Quinn, and Hernandez have? Could drive the pitcher and defense crazy. Hernandez needs to learn how to use his speed better. Quinn indicates he learns as quickly as he motors. Gillies hopefully can outrun the hospital orderlies.

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    1. I guess this could be Gillies’ last year with the Phillies organization. Will be interesting to see what the future holds for him.

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      1. What? Not a chance. He’ll be around next year for sure. When healthy, he’s a fine looking player with major league talent. Health is the key.

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