General Discussion – Week of 7-16-2012

Weekly Discussion

Here’s your non-prospect related spot for the week.  I bet you can’t come up with a whole mess of really implausible trade scenarios.  Prove me wrong 😉

142 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 7-16-2012”

  1. I wonder if they are trying so hard to sign Hammels right now, because they plan on trading more of the vets then anyone thinks, such that if Hammels knew what they wanted to do, he would not resign

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    2. Honestly… I will never understand how people misspell “Hamels.” It’s on the back of his jersey.

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    1. My first preference is to sign Hamels however if they make a legit offer (better than Lee’s Deal) and he doesn’t sign I would target the Tigers for Castellanos and Jacob Turner. Or the Rangers for Profar and Olt and call it a day.

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        1. I think you under estimate what a GM chasing a WS ring will do case in point Giants giving up Wheeler for Beltran…

          GM’s make insane deals all the time. The HOF Gillick gave up Gio for Freddy Garcia for crying out loud.

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          1. DMAR – I agree with your argument that a desperate GM will give up more than what might be responsible, but the two scenarios above will not happen. I do believe however that when I hear these teams say they won’t give up Olt or they won’t give up Castellanos, they are just taking a strong negotiating position to start. Trading Hamels and getting one of those guys is very doable if RAJ negotiates well. Trading Hamels and not getting a blue chip A+ prospect means the negotiation was a failure.

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      2. Castellanos and Turner would be a reach. Profar and Olt is just Fantasy Island stuff. Olt and Martin is more plausible.

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        1. Take it with a grain salt, but Olney says We could toss Victorino with Hamels to Texas for Olt, Martin, Murphy, and Perez and Texas would keep Hamilton in Left and put Shane in CF

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          2. I’d have to do that deal if it were truly offered….Perez’s star has dimmed but Olt and Martin are ready….and Murphy he’s a grinder!

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      3. Rangers I have been hearing want that WS ring in the worst way….a desperate club may do desperate things…maybe BOTH Profar and Olt…and we may have to throw in a prospect with Cole.

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        1. Profar is NOT going anywhere…. I dont even think Hamels for him straight up would get the deal done!

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          1. Seriously, Profar is about as unmovable as it gets. HE’S THE #1 PROSPECT IN BASEBALL! Come on…

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            2. At very best, a team that trades for Hamels gets literally 15 starts plus playoffs out of him. And that’s without any compensation for him leaving via free agency. Is 15 starts + playoffs worth the very BEST prospect in baseball for 6 COST CONTROLLED YEARS? Absolutely not.

              Look at it a different way. For A FULL YEAR (33 starts + playoffs) of Roy Halladay AND $6 million, the Phillies gave up a b+/a- guy (Drabek) and 2 b- guys (Gose and D’Arnaud). 1 year of Halladay and the money carries significantly more value than 1/2 year of Hamels (especially since Halladay is a flat out better pitcher than Hamels is), and the package the Phillies gave up carried roughly the same value as Profar. Hamels isn’t chopped liver, but he is certainly not worth the #1 prospect in baseball.

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            6. dom brown was top 5 2 years ago, prospects are just that…hamels is a world series mvp and texas has lost 2 straight

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          2. The logical side of my brain agrees 100%. Profar is the #1 Prospect in baseball. He’s 19 in AA with a .294 avg and a .856 OPS. I’m dreaming is all.

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            1. There is one other factor that might need consideration. How much cash is Texas willing to throw at Cole? It is possible they think with a big chunk of cash, they get Cole now and go deep in the playoffs they can get him to fall in love with Texas while also getting a 4-5 month head start on negotiations. If that is their plan, maybe they are willing to part with big time prospects.

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            2. Its possible, but it won’t affect negotiations regarding how much the Phillies get back in a trade. Its simple, the Phillies can only offer 1/2 year of Cole, thus the Rangers are only going to pay for 1/2 year of Cole. To pay for anything more would be illogical. Weather or not the Rangers think they can sign Cole long term is completely irrelevant.

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            3. I’ve gotta think that if a team is going to trade for Hamels, they think they can and will sign him. And if I’m the Rangers, or most any team with a major league payroll, I’d want Hamels long term over Profar. The best thing the Phils could do is sign him. A trade would be a disappointment almost regardless of the return.

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            4. In a vacuum, sure, Hamels > Profar. But you’re completely neglecting the contract the two would be playing on . Hamels is going to cost somewhere around 6 years $144 million (24 mil a year), whereas Profar will be making 3 years of LEAGUE MINIMUM, and 3 arbitration years. If your considering marginal costs, Profar is the vastly more valuable asset over the next 6 years than Hamels is. I could go into a long, drawn out process using WAR surplus value to back up that statement, but I think you get the point.

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            5. Thanks for not going into the long-drawn out WAR surplus value process proving how valuable Profar is over Hamels over the next 6 years. Then again, OTOH, Jon Daniels may not be a disciple of the Billy Beane business model.

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            6. Even a GM with the most traditional approach possible would realize the value of a cost controlled prospect vs a guy on a market rate contract. Jon Daniels WILL NOT trade Profar for a rental. I can guarantee you that with 100% certainty.

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            7. Actually I tried to express that by qualifying my statement with the “any team with a major league payroll” part. Meaning a team that is able to spend money on star players and is trying to win in the near future. I get that Profar will be making a lot less, but Profar is also a teenager in AA and not an established major leaguer. If he’s the next Mike Trout/Bryce Harper then sure. But he might not reach that level either.

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            8. It doesn’t matter what their payroll is, Hamels, just like every other player signed to an open market contract, is fungible. You can take the money you would have allocated towards him (say 24 million a year) and put that same $24 mil towards any other player(s) on the open market, and theoretically get similar returns on the money. Plus, you would still have the best prospect in baseball(!!!). Being able to sign Hamels means little if its a market rate contract, which Cole will absolutely be looking for.

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          1. Not sure Rangers will want to move their outstanding young starting ss in the middle of the race. Profar is 2, maybe 3 years away, if he makes it at all. AND heck, what do they tell their fans, Elvis has left the stadium!

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          2. I don’t think we’d get much more than Olt + a package similar to the Cliff Lee deal.

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        1. The people who are expecting to get Profar AND Olt in a trade from the Rangers are the same people who think Amaro is an idiot for trading away 4 prospects for 2 1/2 years of Hunter Pence. Logic clearly does not apply to those folks.

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          1. I think Rube was an idiot for trading for Pence in general. We didn’t need him, it was simple as that.

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      1. what would the rangers do with Profar and Olt anyways they have no room for them to play and Beltre is looked up till 2016 with them an andrus is only 23 they have no room for them so a deal like that is plausible but under what circumstances.

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        1. This doesn’t diminish the players’ value. In addition, Texas is looking for Olt to possibly play some first base. As for Profar, he’s no more than 18 months away, probably less. Perhaps they dangle Andrus next year

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  3. Why won’t you Pin this year’s Phillies Draft to the Top, and will PP every have the time to talk about the prospects? Thanks

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    1. This year’s draft is at the top. Has been for over a week now. Click on ‘The Draft’ and then ‘2012 Draft Picks’

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  4. I’m hearing the Phils intent is to package Blanton and a position player – Pierre, Polanco, or Victorino, to a team that would send prospects to SD and Headley would come to the Phils. The Phils would also have to throw in a mid range prospect to SD to get the deal done possibly, ie, not a Top 20 guy.

    On a separate note, spoke to a scout this weekend who said he’s covered all 4 Phils minor leage full season squads and the player whose stock has risen the most this season in his eyes is Cameron Rupp.

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      1. I was told the Phils push is to not give up any prospects, their limit is they won’t give up anyone they think can help them in the next 2-3 years (Aumont, Brown, May, Pettibone, Castro, Cesar, Bonilla) or has a big upside (Franco, Tocci, Collier), so sounded more like guys like Altherr or Giles or someone like that?

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    2. I am going to change my name to anonymous and start making up insane rumors….

      Blanton is worth NOTHING, Pierre is worth something similar to what Thome brought, Polanco has some value for his D plus he has an option and Vic well I dont know what hes worth because its unkown if Philly will offer him Arbitration or not.

      I just dont see a package involving Blanton and Pierre being strong enough to get Headley. Try again!

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      1. Victorino is no longer arbitration eligible. They could however offer him a qualifying offer.

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      2. I think you may be overstating your point. If the Phillies are willing to pay ALL of Blanton’s salary to a playoff contender, I think the Phillies could definely get a prospect(prospects) for him and Pierre that could get Headley in a 3 team trade. A veteran pitcher and a veteran hitter that is basically a guaranteed 345 OBP wherever he has been (with expiring contracts) is appealing to any playoff team. The Phillies would get a nice return for them if they pay the salaies.

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        1. Overstating? I dont think so, what playoff team would even want to trade for a SP who has a 4.98 ERA? Who has given up 40ER in his last 61 2/3 innings with 18HR allowed in last 10 games?

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  5. Everyone is stuck on the “We wont get a good package debate” OK I GET IT, the team whom trades for a 2 month rental does NOT get compensated if they leave VIA FA…. But first off, they are getting the player that they think will help them win the WS, and second are paying to possibly have first negotiation right to them!

    The last point and only point to REALLY matter is this. By offering Arbitration to Hamels we will get a 1st round pick (excluding the 1st 10) and a Supp 1st rounder. With the way the new CBA is laid out and how $$$ is capped having 2 additional picks worth at least $1.5 mil in addition pool spending.

    So not only are we getting 2 additional top 60 picks we are gaining pool $$$ Why on earth would Mil or Phi trade away Hamels or Greinke without being supplemented properly? SOMEONE WILL PAY UP if they want these guys because that is the ONLY way they are traded!

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    1. Its not hard to top the value of 2 draft picks. Any top 100 prospect would certainly be worth more than that.

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      2. My point is Philly is only going to trade Hamels for a package that they feel is worth what they are losing. If they feel they can do better in the draft and with the addition pool $$ they wont just ship him out for a bunch of mid level prospects!!!

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        1. I agree that there is no point to trade him unless we get a guy that will make an impact in the next 1-2 years at the major league level. If not, we might as well take the draft picks. But, based off the Beltran trade last year I think we will be able to get a top 100 prospect in return. The teams will get desperate…if the Rangers get the hint that the Angels are after Hamels, they will come around on Olt.

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    2. bergeraj says:
      July 16, 2012 at 2:25 PM
      Profar is NOT going anywhere…. I dont even think Hamels for him straight up would get the deal done!
      ….dude make up your mind!

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      1. Where in my statement did I say Profar would be part of a trade? Pay up doesnt mean the #1 prospect in all of baseball and who plays a premier position….. But a top prospect WILL have to be in a deal, Texas has a slew of them!

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    3. To add to this, despite mr berger’s disagreement with the rumor I was given by a scout this weekend in Denver (which you may want to reread as I said “what the Phillies intent is” not what everyone in baseball has already agreed to).

      For teams such as the Angels and Rangers, as an example, this isn’t just about getting Cole Hamels, it’s about keeping him away from someone else. If the season ended today and the Rangers would be playing the Tigers in the first round of the playoffs, do you think Texas wants to face Verlander in Games 1 and 4, and Hamels in Games 2 and 5? After all those teams have invested to get a ring, they do not want to face Detroit in that series. You can use a similar argument by adding Hamels to any AL starting rotation – do you want to face Sabathia and Hamels 4 out of 5 games? do you want to face Weaver and Hamels? Darvish and Hamels? etc…..

      There is no comparable pitcher on the market this month that even comes close to him – he is young, he has multiple post-season MVP’s, he’s having a very good season, he appears to be completely healthy, he appears to be as mature as he’s ever been, and he is a true #1 ace.

      I get that he is a rental and there are no draft picks as compensation, but the delta between him and Shields / Greinke / Garza / Dempster, etc is huge. And in a short 5 or 7 game playoff series, he is in essence replacing the current #4 starter on each team.

      Bottom line, if RAJ plays this properly, we would get a significant return for Cole Hamels that is more desirable than those compensatory picks.

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      1. Just make a name up to call yourself instead of Anon why dont you? Anyone can make up rumors and say they heard from a SOURCE!

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        1. Okay berger, hang on, let me change my name to Burger and then everyone will believe everything I say and magically agree with it.

          And you’re right anyone can, next time I won’t add it to the site, I’ll keep it to myself if that’s everyone’s preference.

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  6. It think the Phils should:
    1. Resign Cole Hamels (without going to an insane measure)
    2. Offer arb to Victorino (unless we get a pretty good package)
    3. Trade Pence
    4. Bring up Dom Brown
    5. Keep Juan Pierre and let him mentor Brown for the final 2 months
    6. Rework Halladay’s contract. Maybe lower next year’s $20M to $15M and tack on two more years
    7. Look to extend Chooch (give him a raise over next year’s option of $5M, something like 3/$21M)
    8. See if there are any takers for Lee/Papelbon… those contracts are gonna bite us in the ass

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    1. I could go along with most of that except ‘keep Pierre to mentor Dom’. Pierre has trade value that is worth more than his mentoring abilities. Also, Nix is coming back soon. There is no need for 3 Left Handed corner outfielders on one team.
      The other: ‘…see if there are any takers for Papelbon/Lee’. Those two players should be seperate. There will never be any takers for Papelbon, because nobody will ever take on that contract. Lee, on the other hand, may be a tradeable commodity, if they just want to salary dump for nonprospects.

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      1. I hear ya about Pierre. I feel like we got a pretty good package for Jim Thome. Do we get something half-way decent for Pierre? I really don’t think we much for him, and at that point, we might as well keep him around. I think if they trade Victorino, keeping Pierre is an easier choice.
        I agree Lee would have more value than Papelbon, but if we sent a little money along with Papelbon ($2M per year), he would be more attractive, because he is one of the few elite closers. This was just hoping somebody’s closer gets injured and somebody gets desperate.

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    2. I don’t see the point in trading Pence if you can keep him by trading Victorino and trading/getting rid of Pierre, Blanton and Polanco. Pence is a highly productive player who can help the Phillies contend for at least the next 4-5 years. Not to mention, they just traded 4 prospects for Pence, Santana and Singleton being pretty big prospects.

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  7. Desperate times calls for desperate trade rumors. Wow. Listen fact of matter we don’t know what will happen. An injury here a team gets hot etc.. I would package that Vic and Cole deal in a second. Sign me up. Let’s just hope we move Cole, Shane, and Juan and Blanton. Get some prospects and a bullpen pc. Promote Dom, tyler c, and aumont. Time to see what we have for future.

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    1. I will never understand people’s obsession with getting a bullpen piece, especially when it means giving up starters. And I will never HOPE that we move Cole. I will only hope that if we are forced to, we re-sign him in the offseason and get a good return for the trade.

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    1. There is probably a vesting 6th year. Depending on the buyout amount, its probably more than $120 guaranteed. Also at some point the money is probably better allocated in other ways.

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    2. Texas is saying all the right things regarding their unwillingness to trade Olt, but I speculate in the end that Texas is where Hamels lands and Olt is what we get in return. Purely speculation at this point but that’s my guess

      I keep hearing Victorino’s name mentioned as a sure fire trade candidate. I don’t see it. What team would give the Phils more than the value of the two picks we stand to gain in next years draft once Vic rejects our qualifying offer. It just doesn’t add up.

      Pierre, Pence and Hamels in order of probability IMO, with the latter two doing wonders to restock the Pharm

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      1. best case trade wise we get the Angels and Rangers in a bidding war. I think Olt or a Bourjos and Segara deal is whats going to be asked. Phillies have a hole at CF if Victorino is gone and well we all know 3b is wide open.

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        1. I like Bourjos, but he alone for Hamels? There would have to be a middling prospect thrown in there but I’ll dream for Bourjos and G Richards. And you hit the nail on the head as far as I’m concerned Bob. We need a bidding war or we’re going to end up with two comp picks for Hamels.

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          1. I think Bourjos would be the main piece. Mainly cause he could slide in immediately. Gold glove and I think he could hit 18 hrs moving to CBP. Segura is their top prospect and should end up at 3rd. Hes not showing a lot of pop though right now.

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            1. I’d turn down Bourjos and Segura pretty quickly. Both are merely complementary pieces, in my opinion.

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        2. If I were Ruben…I hold out for Mike Trout when it comes to Hamels to the Angels! (tic)

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    3. If Cole rejects this deal(if true) then I don’t blame the Phillies for trading him as 24 million can fix alot of problems the team has now. This shows that he wanted to test Free Agency all along and no matter what the Phillies offer he won’t sign.

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  9. Any team going for a championship and can get a cy young type pitcher like hamels. and wont give up there number one prospect to do it , that team is crazy, boston gave up ramirez for a top pitcher, so if texas wont, go to the other teams , and offer him for there top prospect,let it get close
    and see if texas changes its mind. but i want to build around hamels. and worley, not trade him. I totally agree if you can move anyone else and get a good return do it now. papelbon, pence. no untouchables on this team except hamels. imo

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    1. And suppose Hamels rejects the latest Phillies’ offer this week, and prefer to test the market, RAJ may move on.

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    2. I’ll entertain this thought in spite of the fact that there is a new CBA in play which makes prior trades a poor comparison. In any event, exactly what Cy Young-type pitcher did Manny get traded for? By my account, there were only minor league pitchers exchanged in that 3-team deal, and it sent Jason Bay to the BoSox.

      Google is a great resource for fact-checking and you could have reviewed the exact trade details in less time that it took you to type your post

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      2. I’m pretty sure roccom is talking about the Hanley Ramirez deal for Josh Beckett. Not a Cy Young winner- neither is Cole- but a young World Series MVP pre-trade who certainly helped Boston to the 2007 title.

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        1. Ahh. My mistake. I really did take the time to consider another Ramirez and Manny wouldn’t apply anyway since Roccum was referring to prospects.

          Roccum, my apologies

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  10. ty andrew i thought everyone who knew baseball, knew what i was saying, hanley ramirez was a five tool player, as repsected as profar imo, and beckett was a top starter ? am i wrong?

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      1. There were also other players involved in that deal that the Red Sox received, like a starting MLB third baseman.

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  12. There is a blurb out there about the Dodgers needing SS help and they tie that back to Jimmy Rollins. Assuming for a second that the Phils would consider dealing Rollins, what would your reaction be to the following scenarios…..

    1. Trade Rollins and his full contract for nothing in return other than to get his salary off the books

    2. Trade Rollins and his full contract for prospects (nobody in the Top 100)

    3. Trade Rollins, and cover a part of his contract, in order to get back a much better crop of prospects in the deal

    Personally, I don’t believe any team out there would do #2 right now, or #3 unless it was a sizable dollar amount to the point I don’t think the Phils would do it, and I don’t believe the Phils would consider #1.

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      1. Not only would the Dodgers likely pay all of his contract, they would give a LOT in return in the way of prospects. I don’t really understand this hatred toward Rollins at all. The dude has the third best WAR among shortstops in the majors right now (behind Ian Desmond and his fluky power season and Elvis Andrus). The Dodgers certainly have a need at short since Gordon is 30th among 30 qualifying shortstops in WAR, but the Phillies would be insane to trade Rollins. Just because he isn’t as good as he was 2/3 years ago doesn’t mean he isn’t still one of the top shortstops in the game.

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        1. Exactly. a .262 BA w/ 9 HRs and 34 RBIs is pretty good for a shortstop, especially since Rollins plays good defense and is a team leader.

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    2. If you did 1 or 2, you’d be left with a gaping hole at shortstop on the big league club. Who would you play there next year, Freddi Galvis with his .600 OPS?

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  13. FORREST he was arb eligible and then free agency, so they would have had to pay him top dollar for one year then free agency, I did go over this beckett trade and its kind of what i am trying to say two teams were going after beckett texas and boston and they keep offering more to make the deal, texas was offering two top propects danks and blalock, I really am trying to make the point, that a good gm will pit team against team, to get the most, texas doesn’t want to see hamels go to any american league team,it could cost them the pennant, he is that good and a proven world series mvp, so if he is traded you better get at least two top prospects plus something in a ball that could be good ,or you take the two first round choices, and the prospect should be major league ready.

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  15. I have no interest in trading Rollins. I really hope they sign Cole but it’s 50/50 at best. If he doesn’t sign, they have to trade him but it won’t be for a CF, there’s too many of them entering free agency and they would have money. If they can get Headley for Blanton plus Pierre/Victorino and a good prospect, I think you do it. Then you get an outfielder and a pitcher for Cole. Certainly lots of moving pieces. There are many teams that want Blanton and Polanco if the Phils pay their salaries which they would do. Look around, Blanton would be an upgrade for many teams.

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    1. Thanks for the reasonable post.
      Starting Pitching is the most valuable asset at the trade deadline. Blanton will have value. Opposing teams should try to negotiate down his value, but given a choice of a veteran, playoff tested MLB starter or wishcasting on a pitcher like Cloyd, playoff teams should want Blanton. The key for Amaro is to determine what prospect has just overstayed their welcome and needs new scenery.

      However, I have no idea how valuable Headley is. 3B in 2012 FA is horrible. Headley is an excellent target for the Phillies since he will be getting expensive. I have no idea if he is a good fielder. But I do not see him as a potential star. I’m sure everyone likes that he draws walks but he K’s alot. He has about average power and slightly better speed than most 3B.

      If Phillies could get him for Blanton, Pierre/Polanco, and J.Rodriquez I would jump on that deal.
      Since I like Vic, I’d try for Victorino and an Altherr type for Headley.

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      1. I think Headley’s power would tick up if he played in CBP 81 times a year vs Petco.

        2012 Road: .279 .378/.497
        Career Road: .299/.366/.449

        2012 Home: .259/.358/.358
        Career Home: .234/.325/.339

        Are those realistic trade suggestions? They make no sense.

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        1. Realistic trade for Headley:

          May, Biddle, Franco, and one of DeFratus/Aumont/Diekman/etc

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            1. I do think it’s amusing that we have, on the one hand, people who seem to think that Headley could be had for 2-3 C or D level prospects, and, on the other, people who think he would cost 4 of our top 10 propects. The reality of course is in the middle.

              I like Headley, but think he is more valuable to a team contending now, so unlikely to end up with the Phillies.

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            2. I’m not really that high on a lot of our prospects.

              I’m with you I think there’s no chance we trade for him. I think a deal for him would at least be the equivalent to the package we gave the Astros for Pence, which was 3 top 10 prospects an a reliever.

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          2. That is about what it would take. In all honesty, I think he is a better target than Upton for a lot of teams.

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  16. I think trading Rollins would be dumb. He is still an above average SS in all areas. He is not that expensive for what he gives the Phillies AND he is the heart of the team. I’d love to see he continue to break some all-time Phillies records. I’m happy for Galvis but he was about as bad as expected. He cannot hit. He’s young and might improve and since Rollins is bound to get hurt, he will get another chance but I do not think Galvis should every be a starter.
    Sure if you get a Top10 prospect for Rollins you have to take the deal but I assume offers are going to be for ‘upside’ prospects — no thanks.

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      2. According to yahoo stats, Rollins ranks 10th in OPS for SS. Their list includes non-SS like Infante and H. Ramirez.
        I would say that is above average. He is in the range of Furcal, Reyes, Castro, Peralta.

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  17. Since I heard Baltimore was looking at Polanco and the starting pitching is decimated, I was wondering if Phillies could get Jonathon Schoop. He is playing 2B but could play SS. Then I saw he was a Top100 prospect. I was hoping Cloyd and Polanco could get it done. HaHaHa. Maybe Delmonico who I wanted the Phillies to draft as a C.

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  18. Above is a post that talks of a non-Phils scout declaring Rupp (C) to be the most impressive guy he’s noticed this season (among Phils prospects?) insofar as his progress is concerned. We should be glad to hear that and I am super pleased.

    Remember, last season he pulled a decent season at the plate out of the mire of his first half of the season at Lakewood. Several here took note of that. Again, repetitively he was stuck in the mud (especially offensively) during the first couple of months this season at Clwtr and now is coming on again…up to .265 from .225…and he has hit over .400 in his last 10 games, along with two (2) HRs. A total of 9 now.

    Further, the Phils own prospect assessor declared Rupp to be our best catcher prospect declaiming plaudits for his defense and, I suppose, taking into consideration his improved offense.

    Without denigrating Valle’s potential (he is still young) I believe that Rupp is destined to join Ruiz by the end of ’13 because I believe the FO will move him up to Reading before the pre4sent season’s end. And that despite the fact that Valle is already there. Valle IMO will require at least 2 more seasons to get his game to MLB possibilities.

    The concern I’d had about the cupboard being almost clear of catcher prospects has now been eased considerably.

    Check it out.

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    1. Agree with you Art…..Rupp could be up behind Ruiz….I think his age/experience and defensive abilities will play a part in that decision, while Valle further develops all his skills for another year or two at AA/AAA levels.

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    2. Last week I suggested this very outcome and I think it’s likely to happen. In 2013, Valle goes to AAA for at least one, but more likely two or even three, years of finishing school. Rupp goes to Reading to confirm he can hit at higher levels and, if he hits (and it now looks like he will) is called up sometime near the end of 2013 to serve as Ruiz’s back-up and perhaps an alternative starter in 2014 if Ruiz leaves in free agency (I cannot possibly see that happening, however – I suspect the Phils will extend Ruiz for another 2-3 years after 2013 at around $10-12 million a year). But Rupp’s development as a hitter is very surprising and incredibly encouraging. Often catchers, especially the big strong squat guys like Rupp, develop their offense on the later side (why this happens, is an interesting question, I think it’s a combination of factors such as: (a) catchers are more focused on catching than hitting, so their hitting development is delayed while their defense develops; (b) sitting behind the plate and calling games, catchers get very good at reading pitchers and situations and are just better at knowing how to pick up on pitches than most hitters; and (c) it just takes a little while to learn how to translate that inherent strength into power).

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  20. I can’t see Rupp up before late 2014 at the earliest unless the recent hot streak becomes his new normal. His offense has not been good enough to justify a double bump and catcher is not the kind of position you move a guy up that quickly.

    I am at a bit of a loss of what to do with Valle at this point, I know he is still young but he has no plate discipline and that seems to be more of an innate skill rather than one you acquire. I don’t see his offense translating well to higher levels. He looks to project as a backup at best, but I don’t know how the Phillies plan on moving Rupp by him in the system. I think having both of them at the same level does them both a disservice.

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  21. mlb traderumors has a story today about the Marlins possibly becoming sellers, and that list of players they’d discuss would include Giancarlo Stanton. My first reaction is why in the world would they even consider trading him. My second reaction is what would they want in return to get him and would the Phils have the means to do it. Financially it is not an issue, but would the Marlins want prospects or would they want major league talent? Very strange to me that they would be thinking of moving him regardless of what they could get in return or where they are in the standings.

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    1. Stanton is injured and likely out beyond the trade deadline. He won’t be traded this year.

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  22. Just read this article about the new draft pick compensation system. It could affect the Phillies offseason plans.

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/the-new-draft-pick-compensation-system.html

    I was under the impression that if another team signed Hamels the Phillies would get a compensation round pick and a 2nd round pick(Isn’t that what they got for losing Madson?). But the article says they’d receive only a compensation round pick.

    More interesting is that teams that are not in the bottom ten will lose their first round pick when signing a top tier free agent(it is removed entirely now instead of going to player’s old team). With the Phillies possibly finishing in the bottom 10, and most(all?) of the teams Cole would agree to sign with being top 20 teams there are a lot of interesting dynamics in play.

    The Phillies or the team that trades for him are the only ones that can sign him and not lose their 1st pick.

    The Phills might be able to pursue a top free agent and still keep their top pick.

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    1. I think the phillies have a structural salary problem. They have got to reduce the number of players they have whose salaries are north of 15 mil. To me, its not the total, its the distribution of the money.

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      1. I disagree. You have 8 regular position players, 5 starting pitchers, and 1 closer (set aside arguments about whether closers belong in that group for a moment – they are paid like they do pretty universally). Those 14 players are going to suck up most of your payroll. Obviously it’s nice to have as many pre-FA players among those 14 as possible, but there is a serious limit as to how much control you have over that. Setting aside those pre-FA players, the question is how to divide your payroll between those players. I think there is a pretty good argument that the bulk of it should go towards a few “star” level players rather than be spread more or less evenly.

        The Phillies’ problem is threefold: (1) Too many older, declining players, some of whom are overpaid. (2) too much of the money going specifically to particularly fragile eggs: starting pitchers. (3) not enough quality “bargain” pre FA players.

        For this year, the Phillies have 5 players over 15 million. For a team with their payroll, that’s just fine. But looking specifically at those 5 players, 2 have been injured most of the year, another has been injured much of the year and is otherwise having a down year by his standards, the 4th has been mostly healthy but also having a somewhat down year. Only Hamels has been earning his money. But that’s a problem specific to those players, not a problem inherent in paying a player 15 million plus.

        Of course one can say that you need to spread the risk around more, but sub 15 million salaries don’t buy you stars, at least not in the FA market. And you need stars to win.

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      1. Dunno … the way the Dodgers threw money at Puig last month, you’ve got to expect they’re preparing to throw out a higher bid in the offseason.

        I think if Cole wants to stay, he counters and they end up in the 6 year, $144M range. Hopefully they get something done.

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      2. AT LEAST 6 years $138 million IMO. He can get CC money if he hits the open market.

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  25. I think it is time to end the John Mayberry Jr. experiment for good especially after yesterdays game. First, the guy misplays a catchable home run ball and then does not fully extend or stretch to catch Rollin’s great throw when we can win the game. If he makes any of these plays the Phillies win the game yesterday.

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    1. ‘not fully extend or stretch to catch Rollin’s great throw’….looked like he did to me.

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      1. I have seen other 1B stretch to to the point where only the toes were on the base and he was not that streched out.

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  28. Jayson Stark reporting this morning if Phils go into sell mode, they would move Rollins in a heartbeat, but a major league exec said basically they’d have to eat a ton of that contract to trade him. Brings a couple thoughts to mind….

    1 The guy isn’t that far off this year from what his career norms are and what would be expected after the past few seasons. So how did we sign him to a contract less than a season later that we couldn’t even move if we tried? I’m not a big anti RAJ person, but his negotiating skills really have to be called into question when you think about how much we gave up for Pence, how little we got back for Lee, how much we seemed to overpay for Ibanez and now Rollins.

    2 The Phils really think Freddy G is going to be a big time SS.

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    1. Okay ….does Stark has the correct scoop? He’s a reliable guy with good connections, but even the best sportswriters get it wrong sometimes. But assuming that this is the straight scoop:

      First of all, there’s a significant difference between the contract from a pre-2012 and post 2012 perspective. Given natural aging curves, the best year for a contract from a “value” perspective for a player in his mid 30s is the first year of the contract. So it’s perfectly fine to argue that the contract was a good one when signed, but not very tradeable after the first year.

      Secondly, if we are assuming that Rollins took the best offer, as with any FA contract where the player takes the best offer, the team making that offer by definition is placing a higher value on that player than any other team. In a sense, EVERY player signed to a FA contract who merely meets expectations (as opposed to exceeding them) is going to be tough to trade for decent value. And, in fact, that is the case. Much more often than not, players signed to FA contracts, when they are traded, end up having a portion of their salary paid by the original team. And they don’t get traded that often in the first place, except in the final years of their contracts.

      Thirdly, regarding Galvis versus Rollins, one of two things is true: (1) the Phillies don’t really expect to contend in 2013, despite pronouncements to the contrary, and they are looking towards 2014 or maybe even 2015, when Galvis may well be a better option that Rollins, or (b) their major league talent evaluation is as flawed as some of us fear. Rollins will likely be worth about 1 or 2 wins more than Galvis in 2013. If you expect to contend, that’s a significant difference. (And this assumes full recovery from the injury, and that his power boost was unrelated to PEDs.)

      Now all of that said, I do think Amaro is not the best negotiator of contracts, But in this particular case, the AAV was fine and the options at SS were thin. The only real criticism of the contract that makes much sense to me is the vesting 4th year – and that may indeed be one of the things scaring teams away. I do also think that teams are increasingly shy of even moderately large contracts for guys in their mid 30s who are no longer stars. It may well be that Rollins type players end up becoming relative bargains in the FA marketplace.

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    2. Look at NL shortstops in 2012. I would argue that Rollins is the 2nd or 3rd best in terms of this season’s performance. As a hitter, he is roughly tied for third best behind Desmond and Lowrie. Fielding and base running break the tie with the guys hitting about the same, and at least bring him closer to Lowrie. Desmond is the only guy having a clearly better year.

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    3. Finally, reading the Stark piece, all we have a quote from an unnamed executive from another organization. Color me unimpressed.

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  29. Has anyone heard anything about the status of Freddy Galvis’ injury? Will he be back on the field after the suspension is up?

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  30. Sobering thought: The Phillies are actually closer to the worst record in MLB and first pick in next year’s draft (8 GB) than the playoffs (10 1/2 GB).

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