The Crystal Ball

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Wanted to get some conversation going so….just sitting here considering whether the Phils should make these moves:

1 Trade Shane Victorino, which will lead to….bringing up Domonic Brown, opening a spot for Leandro Castro in Lehigh Valley. This, of course, assumes Brown is healthy. (He was 2-3 with 2 runs scored and a SB with GCL Phils rehabbing today.)

2.  Bring up Tyler Cloyd to the Phillies.  Put him in the rotation and see what they have.  What is the down side to replacing Kendrick with Cloyd at this stage, moving Kendrick to long relief and sending Sanches back down?

3.  Promote Cesar Hernandez to Lehigh Valley.  Release Andreas Blanco to make room and play Michael Martinez/Frandsen at SS. Frandsen should stay in the lineup as much as possible as he is the most consistent hitter on the team, but I would like to see Hernandez in Allentown before the end of the year.

4.  Tyler Knigge needs to move to Reading.  Nothing more to prove in Clearwater and Reading’s bullpen has been decimated by injuries and call ups.  I can think of at least 3 moves to make room….

5.  I am on the verge of saying Adam Morgan is ready for Reading but not quite there yet.  I need another solid start or two.  Colvin maybe two starts behind Morgan.  The most obvious move to make room would be Mario Hollands back to Clearwater where he belongs.

6.  Luis Paulino should be a promotion candidate for the Clearwater bullpen….

7.  Chris Serritella moved up to Lakewood with another solid 2 weeks to finish the year with the BlueClaws with a corresponding move sending Chris Duffy to Clearwater.

Ok, feel free to agree or rip me now….

117 thoughts on “The Crystal Ball”

  2. Looks like a lot of good ideas – maybe a bit aggressive — but still works

    What about Ruf?

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    1. I wouldn’t mind seeing Ruf in LV. But what is his ceiling? Bench bat? Starter on a bad MLB team? Maybe could gauge his trade interest if he keeps up his mashing ways in AAA?

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  3. Kinda have to take things more aggressively when the Big club will be selling off members of the team. Its not a luxury to baby kids when holes are opened up. So I agree if the kids are close to ready MOVE them!

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  4. Trading Victorino isn’t a bad idea, but only if you are getting quality prospects in return. Correct me if I’m wrong, but won’t he be worth two picks if he declines arbitration in the offseason? I guess I’m saying don’t just trade Vic to trade him. Make sure the team is getting something that could help them down the road.

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    1. In order for Victorino to be worth Picks in the the next draft you have to offer him a 1 year Arb deal at or about the average of the top 125 players…

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      1. That actually wouldn’t be a bad deal for the Phillies. Having him back on a one year deal or getting picks. That’s pretty much a win-win.

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          1. That’s how much they would have to pay an Upton or Bourn on a multi-year deal. Victorino can easily be a 4 WAR player next year. Yeah I’d offer ARB to him.

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          2. On a one year deal? That’s not bad at all. If he does well and you can trade him for top prospects, you do it. If he struggles, you have no future obligation to him.

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            1. Trolling or a general lack of baseball knowledge? Victorino was flat out fantastic last year, and was a top 20 non-pitcher for the entire league in 2011.

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            3. Victorino only makes 9.5 million now. With the downturn in production this year, why should he receive a raise. Or doesn’t the FanGraphs big book of Top 20 lists you paid 500 bucks for consider it a down year. What, he coaxed a couple of extra walks this year. And if they tender him it will likely require a $12.5 million qualifying offer. Not worth it.

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    2. I think there’s no way Victorino accepts a one-year deal. Given his age, he’s gonna want that one big pay day like Aaron Rowand did. I can’t blame him either.

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    3. Don’t forget, they would also save $4 million or so on this year’s salary. Sometimes they believe this to be worth a prospect or two. That is almost their whole signing bonus pool from this year’s first 10 picks.

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  5. I wouldn’t trade Victorino unless it was for serious prospects (including at least one of some teams’ top #3-5 prospects). The Phillies will get picks for Victorino, and he is worth offering arbitration. I would prefer the Phillies trade Pence, right now, before they get caught having to negotiate an extension with him. Bring up Domonic Brown to replace Pence in RF.
    Eat all of Blanton and the rest of Polanco’s salary for this year for whatever level prospect you can get. Sell high on Juan Pierre, since their seems to be multiple teams interested.
    Cloyd replacing Kendrick is a no impact, nothing move. Ditto Knigge to Reading.
    Agree Serritella to Lakewood. Carmona to Williamsport to replace him. Duffy to Clearwater.
    Agree Morgan to Reading in a couple starts, and Hollands back to Clearwater. Let Biddle get 1 or 2 starts at Reading at the end of the year, just to get a head start on next year.

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    1. “Cloyd replacing Kendrick is a no impact, nothing move. Ditto Knigge to Reading.” What impact are you trying to make? It’s not to help the club compete this year (which is almost impossible at this stage), but to move players in the system along to see if they continue to perform. If they do, we have something. If they don’t, what exactly have we lost?

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    2. I doubt that Vic would bring any “serious” prospects in a trade. Maybe a couple mid-level prospects, but probably not any upper-tier guys. Therefore, I tend to agree that keeping Vic and offering arbitration is worth considering.

      Pierre is the guy most likely to be traded IMO. Hopefully he can bring at least a real solid prospect in return; that would be a good deal for the Phils.

      What to do with Hamels remains the biggest question.

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      1. So are you saying that Pierre would bring back a better prospect than Victorino? Because I find that hard to believe. Victorino plays a harder position, can play RF in a pinch, is a switch-hitter and although he is having a down year he is a pretty darn good ballplayer. Pierre was signed on a minor league deal and his ceiling is 4th/5th OF on a contending team.

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        1. That’s not what he said. Of course Pierre wouldn’t bring back a better prospect than Victorino. But Victorino may not bring back a prospect better than the 1st round picks that they will receive as compensation. Pierre might bring back one player along the lines of Lino or Simon.

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          1. Unless he comes with the same condition’s Raul Ibanez did….a gentleman’s hand-shake agreement.

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    3. Vic will get you one teir one prospect, and one lesser (A-)…he is a rental for the obtaining team.

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  6. Offering Vic arbitration at the 12 mil level would be malpractice and it’s the kind of move that even Rube wouldn’t be dumb enough to make. I hope. Vic has been a fine player, but he’s not worth that much money. And frankly, either is Pence. Were I Rube, I’d see what I could get for both of them. I’d be much more willing to mix and match in the outfield than in the pen, which has cost the team dearly this season. Vic and Pence have been well below their career numbers and if the pen hadn’t been just awful, the Phils would probably still be withing shouting distance of a wild card race.

    Vic will be lucky to get 12 million on a two year contract in free agency. Were Rube to offer arb at 12 mil, he’d sign it before the offer could be finished. That’s the kind of panic move that gave Polly a third year and Ibanez a third year and brought in Papelbon at the cost of too much money, too many years and the first round draft pick. Not smart.

    I largely agree with Gregg’s list.

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    1. Completely disagree. I think if he doesn’t get traded, Vic gets offered arbitration and turns it down for a deal elsewhere.

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    2. That’s not true. Polanco and Ibanez had 3 year deals whereas this would be a one year deal with no future obligations. What you are comparing it to is something completely different. The situations you described above are giving out guaranteed years in addition to an existing deal. This would be a one year deal for a player who is still in his prime. If the one year deal doesn’t work out, he can be dealt or let go.

      I think you are off too with Pence being well below his career numbers. His season slash line is .285/.352/.482 whereas his career slash line is .292/.344/.829. I would say that he is playing exactly the way he has always played.

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      2. If you read what he said, he didn’t compare Vic’s hypothetical one year deal to Polanco or Ibanez…what he said was that RAJ is prone to making panic moves and overpay and keep guys around too long, he used those as examples. Giving Victorino 12 mil would be another example of this. Frankly, the fact that Victorino is in a contract year and has a .680 OPS should be a warning sign, I think he is definitely on the decline, and if you haven’t noticed there is a lot of that occurring on the roster. Yes, I think a one year deal would be low risk, but I also think we could find a cheaper alternative that would be more than adequate. Ruben always has a set budget and not spending 12 mil on Victorino would give us more flexibility to sign some bullpen pieces or a bench bat.

        Also, last year Beltran netted Wheeler, who is a top 10 prospect. I don’t think Victorino is on the same level but I think he could get us a solid prospect, maybe two if we find the right suitor…teams always overpay at the deadline. I also think this would be better than getting picks. We would get prospects much closer to the bigs, and we still have a lot of talent under contract that aren’t getting younger.

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        1. You still need to get prospects better than what you would get when he declines arbitration (which he would do).

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          1. I’m not sure of that. There is a very, very good chance he will do better in arbitration next year than he would do on the free market ($10-12 million in arbitration – $6-9 million on open market). My guess is that if he is offered arbitration, he would accept and would attempt to restore his value. If the Phillies don’t want him around anymore and they have given up on this year, they should trade him for whatever they can get and move on.

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            1. If he accepts arbitration (unlikely), you still have the option to trade him next season as well.

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            2. To grant Victorino arbitration will require a qualifying offer equivalent to the average salaries of the top 125 players in the MLB. Estimated at about $12.5 million. Same goes for Hamels, Juan Pierre, or anybody else. I believe Victorino would jump on that 12.5 million for one year.

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            3. Victorino at 12.5mm for one year wouldn’t be that bad of situation. Still would be a position of need next year and could easily bounce back to his career norms.

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        2. I’m failing to see how offering a player a one year deal is a panic move. In fact, offering him arbitration would be a savvy business move. Think of it like the Werth situation. The team received compensation for him leaving for Washington. I don’t see how that is a panic move along the same lines as giving a third year to Polanco and Ibanez. The situations are entirely different and can’t be compared.

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          1. Offering arbitration to Werth is completely different than offering it to Victorino. Werth got more on the open market, WAY more. Victorino, will get less on the open market. Everyone knew Werth would decline. Victorino, coming off his worst year might very well accept arbitration, get over-paid in 2013 and hope he can cash in at the end of next year. Can the Phils really afford to overpay another aging veteran next year? Do the Phils really want him back? There seems to be a rift there already. I could see him being on the FA market and having to accept a 1 year $6-8 million deal ala a certain closer we had on the Phils last year (hint: his last name starts with M). Who will dump large dollars and years into Vic after this year? To quote Ricky Watters, “For Who, For What?”

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  7. Maybe i am missing something here. Pierre brings us back nothing? but we trade a guy who gets on base and produces runs. makes no sense to me. I would keep pierre next year too, dom brown is a mystery still. mayberry isnt a starter. who is your left fielder???? thought pierre was the best of the non pitchers signed and still do. he just gets on base and scores runs.until we get a good leftfielder then keep him.

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    1. Pierre isn’t a bad guy to have around this year, but this is the best year he’s had in a while and it’s still below average for a corner OF.

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      1. This. Pierre is a one-dimensional player, and his one dimension is speed which, unfortunately for him and whatever team signs him next, declines with age. He has a decent OBP… but not because he takes any walks. He puts the ball in play, which is always good, but you gotta figure that he’ll stop getting so many infield hits and bunt hits. His bunt hits % is the highest of his career. If you remember how much of a terror he was when he was with the Marlins, you gotta realize something’s fishy about that. He was faster then, but got fewer bunt and infield hits? Seems fluky. In addition, I think we can all agree that his defense is bad at best. His arm is absolutely HORRIBLE, and for a guy who’s pretty fast, he doesn’t get to balls as well as you’d like.

        This is not to say that he hasn’t been a pleasant surprise, especially for the money given to him, but he is having an average year at best (look past the batting average). And, as jmb said, this is his best year in quite some time. It would be unreasonable to expect him to replicate this next year, and even if he does, getting a prospect or two for an average player that we frankly do not need would be a coup.

        By the way, Dom didn’t have the nice average, but in his time with the big league he put up similar, probably better, offensive numbers to Pierre. Was his defense any worse? I doubt it. Plus he would actually cost less and has upside. I’ll take Brown, thanks.

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        1. Very well stated Dan. The thinking of the Phillies brain trust (RAJ, Manuel, etc) of making Pierre a focal point on this year’s team is the kind of thinking that causes good teams to go bad. Instead of trying to promote young talent from within (as they did in the early half of the 00s) they signed Pierre off the scrap pile and gave him significant playing time. If you want to talk about one of the most frustrating aspects of this year’s team, this is it. Of course they did the opposite with Freddy Galvis where they should’ve brought in a utility guy and not thrown him to the wolves so soon. Although Galvis has the defense of a seasoned major leaguer, his bat is nowhere even close to being seasoned yet. Experience is nice, but a .617 OPS is not.

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          1. Short-term memory? Pierre wasn’t by any stretch the focal point of the brain trust. Do we forget that this guy BARELY beat out Posednick for the final roster spot? He wasn’t supposed to play much but then Nix got hurt and Mayberry’s clock struck midnight.

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            1. Nix only played 6 games in LF. The point I’m making is that as soon as Pierre showed that he was a decent option out in left, he has been the starter for most of the season. I don’t see what is so controversial about that. It’s the truth. They have stuck with Pierre regardless of injuries, and I would’ve put money on it that it would’ve played out exactly the same way had Nix not gotten hurt.

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            2. Okay, fine, but what was their alternative once Nix got hurt, Brown obviously needed more time in the minors (truly, his fielding was atrocious and his confidence was shot – they weren’t burying him, they were developing him), and Mayberry laid an egg? Gillies wasn’t ready for the big leagues and he got hurt oo. Pierre was the best of the lot in a limited role, but I don’t think they want him to be there long or medium term.

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            3. I agree, the real talent evaluation mistake was thinking Mayberry could match the productive stretch he had last year. Pierre has been better then they could of hoped for really, we’d probably be throwing some praise upon Amaro for picking the right cheap option to step in and salvage left field for a year if so many of his other moves didn’t blow up in his face(Thome, the bullpen, believing Utley and Howard would miss much less time).

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  8. They can trade both Victorino and Pierre. They gotta get some prospects, especially at thirdbase. They won’t be able to fill that hole in free agency so they are going to have to either get someone or get assets to trade for one. I would also bring Dom up once he is healthy. They need to find out what they have.

    Of course, what they should do now is trade prospects for Headley. He can hit in the middle of the lineup next year. They won’t find a 3B like that in free agency or get that out of a rookie. It sounds silly to be buyers and sellers but the Headley move would be for the future.

    Rollins (I hate him in the leadoff spot but it is what it is)
    Utley
    Pence
    Howard
    Headley
    Ruiz
    an outfielder
    Brown

    *and if Utley can’t play, bat Galvis 8th and move everyone up. (or Brown to the two hole)

    But they have to see if he can play or not.

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        1. Depends who you’d have to give up to get him. For example, if you could make the centerpieces of the trade Pettibone and Asche, you’d be silly to not explore it.

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  9. I doubt Victorino goes anywhere as I can’t see an interested team willing to return more than the value of two picks in next year’s draft. The Phils should make him a qualifying offer which he will likely decline.

    My guess at who the Phils might trade, in order of probability;

    1. Pierre – he might be gone even if the Phils win 8 out of 10 to start the 2nd half. I’d say 90% prob on Pierre being traded

    2. Hamels – if we can’t get him signed ahead of the deadline, then he needs to be traded. We have just a good of chance as signing him in the off-season and we might even be able to pull a cheap third baseman out of a deal. Texas is a near perfect match in a number of ways. I’d say 50-50

    3. Pence – I like Pence, but have difficulties with his glove considering this team is built around pitching. He’s controlled for 2013 and should get us a quality return. With both Pence AND Hamels, I think the quality we return will be influenced heavily by the number of teams looking to acquire their services. 40-60

    Wiggington, Blanton and Polanco are possible candidates as well. Wigginton the most likely since the Phils will not be seeking much in terms of value in return

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  10. After this year some of you would take Victorino back if he accepts arb?? In my opinion you had a chance to change up the position players with Rollins last year and you didnt. I think they should learn from this and take an upper level arm in return from a team in the hunt. To be honest, I have no idea how other teams view Victorino?? I know Carlos Lee was having a better year but he got the Astros 2 Top 10 prospects from Florida. I would expect 1 Top Ten guy in return for a Vet outfielder. Especially if the Phils eat all of his $$.
    I love the mention of Chase Headley above and I think Angel Pagan would be a great Free Agent to look at to play CF. SF will spend all of their money on Melky, and have already been rumored to covet Bourn.
    Also.. people need to relax with the “rebuild” “sky is falling” attitude. Everything that possible could have gone wrong has. I concede this is no longer a 102 win team, but it is also not a 70 win team either. If Hamels stays and they have better health a core of Hamels, Doc, Lee, Pap, Howard, Pence, Rollins, & Cooch is just as good as anybody in the NL.

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  11. here is my take for what it is worth. The entire outfield needs to be blown up. We need to move on at 3b and I will piggy back the ss to any destination possible. Sign Hamels, wave bye to Blanton, Kendrick, etc. It is time to bring in a new manager and staff and reinvigorate the clubhouse.

    we need to add some youth, some power and speed to the outfield. This team is unwatchable due to the lack of fire! Dom Brown would be playing here by August 1st. I am close to believing he can be the same guy as Pence, just 10 million cheaper. Centerfield, I would try to get a prospect like Yelich somehow, someway. Leftfield, we need a power bat like Quentin for next year. I have been on his trail for years and think he would be a nice addition.
    3b would be a big spot. If Utley and Howard are in decline, we could get by with added power at 3rd and in left. right now, we have zero at both spots. Could we trade Hamels for Olt and re-sign him in December??? That would be a win, win.
    the rotation is fine for next year assuming he is back. we obviously need pieces in the pen. We need Gillick – like moves in that we need to find guys who don’t cost much but will blossom in a role. guys like Werth, Dobbs, Durbin, Ruiz, Feliz-all lower level moves that paid big dividends.

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  12. Pagan would be a nice piece who can bat 2nd, 6th or 7th. Affordable too. If they add Headley, Pagan and Brown to the lineup that should improve it and save money. Then they an go out a buy a veteran bullpen. Man, how friggin valuable was Madson as a set up man all those years.

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  13. I think a lot of people are, at the same time, overestimating the value that Victorino gets us in a trade and underestimating his value in terms of salary. In a down year (i.e., this year) he is worth 12 million. In a more typical year, he’s worth well more than 12 million. That’s not even accounting for the fact that free agents end up being overpaid and that replacing him with a player of equal value in the FA market will require a multi-year deal. I don’t want them to sign Vic to a multi year deal, but getting him on a one year arb deal would be a good value.

    Also keep in mind he wants a multi-year deal, so even if I’m wrong about his perceived value on a one year deal, he’ll probably reject arbitration. So the Phillies should and probably will offer him arb if he isn’t traded.

    Viewed that way, the issue is simple: trade him if the value offered exceeds the value of the picks they would get.

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    1. I don’t agree that he is worth $12M this year (but was worth more than 12 last year). I do agree 100% with this: “Viewed that way, the issue is simple: trade him if the value offered exceeds the value of the picks they would get.”

      He’s not accepting arbitration.

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    2. Exactly right. We should also remember the number thrown around in the off-season for resigning Vic. If he accepts, which he won’t, we get a productive center fielder on a 1-yr 12mm deal and we can repeat the exercise the following year. The latter is moot however, since Vic is unlikely to accept a qualifying 1-yr offer

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      1. 12mm is the estimated ‘Qualifying offer’ amount for players eligible for free-agency following the 2012 season. The amount is based on average player salaries and will vary from year to year. That’s the basics, though someone else can probably give a more comprehensive answer

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  14. We keep using the term arbitration but I don’t think that is the correct term to describe the new FA process. Teams can make a ‘Qualifying Offer’, and players can accept of reject a ‘Qualifying Offer. Offers of arbitration as it applies to Free-agents is no longer part of the Free-agent process.

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      1. I believe a qualifying offer is greater or equal than the average of the 125 richest contracts in baseball. It’s not a static number and will continue to fluctuate from year to year as the list of top 125 contracts is refreshed

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  15. you missed the most important one. charlie has to go.we don’t have the talent to make up for a manager that always losses the chess match

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  16. There’s a lot of silliness in this thread (not the post itself, some of which I agree with, some of which I don’t, but all of which is at least reasonable). I want to focus on one particular aspect of the silliness – the constant bashing of Rollins, Pence, and Victorino. Two of those three are indeed having seasons a bit below their career norms, but those three players, taken together, are not the problem. Not even a significant part of the problem. If the rest of the team was relatively healthy the team would be fine.

    Even aside from health issues, which are far and away the biggest problem, if you want to cast blame there are better targets that Rollins/Pence/Victorino. Pierre has given the Phillies much better production than anyone could reasonably have expected, but even an up year from Pierre is not as good as a down year from Rollins & Vic, or a normal year from Pence. Polanco has been done as a hitter for a while, but seems to have lost a step defensively. Lee has been the victim of some bad luck, but in terms of bottom line results is obviously a big disappointment. Let’s not even talk about the bullpen. And of course poor play from the players filling in for injured players has been problematic (though Kendrick actually hasn’t been that bad for a 6th starter, but obviously the fall off from Halladay to Kendrick is pretty dramatic).

    None of those guys are the long term answer (and Vic will be gone next year regardless, as he won’t accept the qualifying offer and the Phillies rightly won’t give him a multi year deal). But these calls to blow the team up are crazy. If we had a decent farm system at the upper levels, or players who could be traded for major league ready prospects, then that might make some sense. Blowing this team up under the current circumstances might result in a 100 loss season. What would that do to attendance?

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    1. You don’t seem to be accounting for the fact that Pence just looks silly when he strikes out!

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    2. I agree with all of this. Pierre is having a really good Juan Pierre season, but with the rest of the line up if that is your starting LF that is huge problems. To help make this point I went to fangraphs and pulled up the WAR for our position players who have played a significant amount time.
      Wigginton -0.1 (I am going to go out on a limb and blame defense)
      Mayberry 0.0
      Polanco 0.3 (same as Fontenot)
      Galvis 0.5
      Pierre 0.8 (15th best among NL LF)
      Victorino 1.3
      Pence 1.7
      Rollins 2.1
      Ruiz 4.3
      What you see here is exactly what we should expect if we step back for a minute. Ruiz is carrying this team, Rollins and Pence are a little down but not killing us, Victorino is way down, Polanco is done, and the bench players are bench players, slightly above replacement level.

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    3. + 1

      Rollins has been streaky this year but still has the ability to drive the ball and play a well-above average shortstop — a very valuable combination. Pence is a classic complementary bat, a guy with good power whose warts only become obvious in the 3-hole. If the Phils get a return to normalcy from Howard next year — and if Brown hits like I think he will once healthy — Pence will be an important piece to this lineup in the years to come.

      As far as the calls for trades go, I’m in the offer arbitration and wait for picks boat. They will get nothing close to two picks’ value for Victorino, and unless Hamels returns Olt or Castellanos, I say hold on tight and whisper sweet nothings into his year until he signs. It’s been said a thousand times, but trading a 28-year-old former World Series MVP lefty just entering his prime is not the best “getting younger” move.

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  17. If we are assuming this year is lost….trade hamels (hopefully with a handshake deal in place) for m.olt +, trade victorino, blanton, pierre for whatever you can get…think abreu trade…then promote fransden to play 3b if olt isnt ready, brown to play cf, cloyd to replace blanton, nix/ mayberry to play lf…let bullpen stay the same and see who looks good for next year

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    1. I know what you are saying Sam, but that would be such an awful team.

      I don’t think that this front office has either the will to blow up the team and put such a poor product on the field, nor does it have the leeway from ownership/management to destroy fan goodwill by doing so.

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      1. Thats to finish out the year…yeah the team is awful now…fransden should be adequate replacement for polanco, brown could be better than victorino this year, cloyd is only replacing blanton…the major hole is hamels but if you are trading him you are going for next year anyway

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  18. If you seriously want to restock the farm system and stay competitive next year…

    1.) You trade Pence and keep Victorino. Pence has higher trade value since he’s under contract next year, so the prospects you receive in return should be better than what you get for Victorino.

    2.) Brown gets the call up and plays RF and hopefully shows enough that he will hold it down next year.

    3.) In the off season you offer Victorino arbitration. He declines and you receive 2 draft picks in return when he signs elsewhere.

    4.) With the money saved by freeing Pence’s and Victorino’s salaries you sign Bourn.

    Final tally…Prospects from Pence trade, 2 draft picks from Victorino, Dominic Brown in RF, Michael Bourn in CF

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    2. Then we’d need another OF. Maybe we can then trade the prospects we got for Pence, back to the team we gave Pence to, since we would need to fill that big hole in our Lineup. That Pence guy is a pretty good OF and his bat would look good in our lineup…

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      1. Well who is in the market for an outfielder? Dodgers = Zach Lee, Garret Gould. Cleveland = Lonnie Chisenhall, Dillon Howard, Tony Wolters

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    6. I’d love to get Bourn. What are people’s senses of what kind of contract he’ll get? Before this year he was sort of an under the radar player (boggles the mind that he was acquired for substantially less than Pence). This year he is not at all under the radar. Still has a skill set that tends to be under appreciated, but I would not be too shocked at 5/100. I’m not even sure that would be a bad deal, though i can’t really see the Phillies paying that much for him. Certainly they should kick the tires, and if he ends up closer to 3/50 he will be a huge bargain and great pick up for somebody. If I had to predict what he will get it would be between those two numbers, say 4/70, which would still be a good contract.

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      1. I know that 5/100 is going to strike some people as crazy high. Note that, using WAR (fangraphs), yes an imperfect measure but IMO a decent tool for evaluating groups of seasons, Bourn is the 6th best CF in baseball over the past 4 1/2 years, with the top 6 reasonably closely bunched. Oddly enough, #4 is … Victorino. So, my prediction of 4/70 for Bourn, with a possibility of 5/100, and people’s opinion that Vic isn’t worth 1/12, means some combination of the following:

        (1) I’m crazy,
        (2) Vic’s detractors are crazy,
        (3) The fact that Vic is having a down year and Bourn a career year will have a disproportionate effect on their contracts, or
        (4) The fact that Bourn is 2 years younger will make a big difference in their contracts.

        I think it’s a combination of 2, 3 and 4.

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      2. This analogy cuts both ways, and they are very different players, but Werth had similar a 5 year WAR total compared to Bourn pre-FA (albeit he missed one of those years, but then Bourn has another half year to go), and was 2 years older when he got his contract. Certainly, though, Werth was a more conventionally productive player.

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      3. As I continue to have a conversation with myself, I sort of convinced myself that Bourn may go for less than he should. His skill set is just so under appreciated. Certainly he should be a target for the Phillies.

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        1. I started to reply to you earlier, about your 5y/100m estimate. I seriously doubt Bourne gets anywhere near that amount.
          Baseball generally does not pay for singles and steals. Carl Crawford is the exception, but he has some power, and had the benefit of a perceived bidding war between Red Sox and Yankees. Bourne will get a contract closer to the one Juan Pierre signed with the Dodgers, than 5/100. I’d say 5/65 – 5/75 range.

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          1. Well Bourn is a little better than Pierre was, though it’s not clear to me that perception has caught up with reality. I did say 5/100 was probably on the high side. 5/65 would potentially be a bargain. Even assuming typical age related decline, I think he’ll be worth 75 million over a 5 year contract. Which might not sound like that much of a bargain, except that free agent eligible players are so much more expensive than non-free agent eligible players.

            Though Pierre is a bit of a cautionary tale I guess. Bourn isn’t that much better at a similar age, he is a somewhat similar type of player (better defensively, better BB rate, not as good contact skills, otherwise they are basically the same player comparing them at similar ages). And Pierre declined pretty quickly once he signed that FA contract.

            Related question – has anyone tried to calculate the adjusted value of a free agent eligible player? I mean, conventional wisdom is that one WAR is worth 5 million dollars. But of course pre-free agent players are not available on the open market. If you’re on the free agent market, you can only bid on free agents, obviously. A free agent at 5 million per expected WAR is a bargain. Hypothetically, if (say) 1/2 of WAR league wide are produced by pre-FA players, and if their average salary is (say) 2 million per WAR, then the typical FA will cost 8 million per WAR. Those numbers are illustrative only, but I wonder if anyone has tried to calculate what the “real” numbers are?

            (All caveats about the problems with WAR apply, but the argument is conceptually correct even if specific WAR numbers are suspect.)

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  19. Next years roster starters rollins, bourn, utley, howard, pence, chooch, brown, olt …Bench mayberry nix wiggy fontenot kratz pitchers halliday lee hamels resigned worley cloyd…pen kendrick, valdes, schwimmer, defratus, stutes, bastardo, papelbon…can tinker with pen

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    1. The only way to make that work is assume they successfully trade Hamels for Olt, AND that he still signs with the Phillies for next year. Both IMO questionable assumptions. Of course also assuming they can sign Bourn. But if all that comes to pass, they probably could manage it financially (barely, and albeit giving up a couple of more long term contracts), and that would indeed vault them back into contention, assuming reasonable health.

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  20. 1- I’m in agreement that Vic most likely wouldn’t accept arb…I mean a qualifying offer. I don’t think he gets traded. His value is just too low to net equal compensation for possible draft picks. Another factor he may not accept arb is if he truly feels their is a rift between him and the organization. His unhappiness about being dropped in the lineup might be a sign of that.

    2- Pierre should be traded. Love what he has given the team this yr but he’s worth more to the Phillies furtue on another team with some kind of return.

    3- Wiggy/Bastardo should also be looked at into moving.

    4- Hamels should only be traded if the compensation is significant. It makes NO sense to trade him for little and risk losing out on him in FA or the potential draft picks.

    5- No one will trade for Blanton so that idea needs to stop. Also if Hamels is traded someone needs to eat up innings, and he’s probably your best guy.

    6- Finally, Trading Pence would be difficult for Amaro, he gave up alot for him and giving up on him now sends a vibe he lost that trade. I feel he wouldn’t do that but he made good on Lee and has in the past cut ties with guys who haven’t worked out via free agency ( ala Qualls). I would look into trading Pence as well I just doubt this would happen.

    – I’m thinking next yr an OF of Ross/Brown/Pence wouldn’t be horrible.

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    1. Ross is a platoon guy and we have no idea if Brown can handle CF. I’m very skeptical that he can.

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    2. Why trade Bastardo? Cheap bullpen arm that had a very good season last year. There’s absolutely no reason to trade him other than you don’t like him.

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  21. Not sure number 2 works. Read something today that said Halladay could be pitching the fifth game after the all star break, assuming his rehab start in Clearwater goes OK. So Kendrick is already out of the rotation. Assume they’d want to keep Blanton in as well, who knows, maybe he has 2-3 good starts and gets a bit of trade value (wishful thinking, I know). Maybe after the trade deadline, they put both Kendrick and Blanton in the pen and give Cloyd a shot … I’m as anxious as anyone to give him a shot, it’s just not going to happen right now.

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    1. Blanton has pitched a lot better this year than his ERA indicates. The HRs are a problem, but he isn’t giving up many baserunners (really good control) and is striking out more than he has in a while. But those HRs…killing him.

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      1. Blanton is absolutely a guy who would help a contender in a close race with problems on the back end of the rotation. The problem is that he won’t fetch much in return.

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      2. Most of the Phillies pitchers give up too many home runs. I wonder if it has something to do with their failure to move hitters off the plate by pitching inside.

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  22. I enjoyed this thread. Assuming the phils don’t go on a tear the next 2 weeks, I would do the following:
    1. Trade Hamels only if you get a near MLB ready elite prospect in a position of need (in order of preference) Olt, Castellanos, Gose, Davidson, and maybe Leonys Martin. He’s basically given you the okay to do this.
    2. Trade Vic for whatever. I’m too afraid he’ll accept arb hoping to reestablish his value.
    3. Trade Pierre and Blanton (even if you have to pick up some of Blanton’s $). Blanton maybe attractive to a team in a pitcher’s park like St. Louis or Cleveland.
    4. Bring up Cloyd. I know scouts are not high on him, but he deserves a chance to see if he can get MLB hitters out the way he’s done in the minors.
    5. Give Brown as much MLB time as possible. Use some combo of Brown, Mayberry, Nix and Pridie to man center and left for the rest of the year.

    Offseason moves depend on who you get back and what guys show you the rest of the year, but 2 points.
    1. There are no must haves, even Hamels. Every big contract is a risk and the bigger the contract, the bigger the risk. Lincecum – I’m sure the Giants are glad they didn’t extend him. And don’t tell me about Hamels fluid delivery, b/c people said same about Madson.
    2. You need to get a little lucky (some examples: Dodgers-Capuano, Nats-Edwin Jackson, Pirates-Burnett). One thought would be if they don’t resign Hamels, look at a guy like Haren who may come cheap after a down season this year and could pay big dividends if he bounces back.

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  23. People should keep in mind that signing a free agent will cost the Phillies their first round pick. Of course if they finish with one of the worst 10 records (a good chance, since they’re sixth right now) then they would lose their second highest pick. This would apply to any free agent given a qualifying offer by their team ( currently estimated at 12.5 million). I think this would apply to Bourn (who I love).

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  24. There is no way ethical way for the Phillies to have a “handshake deal” with Cole Hamels that would allow them to trade him now and then re-sign him during the off season. I have not read the MLB rules or the CBA, but I am sure major league baseball would not allow such a scenario.

    It would be unethical for the Phillies to make such an agreement with a player when they are trading that player to another organization. It would be similar to tampering. When they trade a player away, that player’s negotiating rights no longer belong to the Phillies. Any prior agreement they may have made with that player would be null and void.

    In addition, how would either Hamels or the Phillies enforce such an agreement? If Hamels suffers a career-ending injury, would the Phillies honor the agreement? Or, let’s assume that during the free agency signing period Cole gets an offer from another team for much more money than the two parties had agreed upon when they shook hands. Cole could simply sign the larger offer, and the Phillies could do nothing. They can’t complain to the league, because the league would probably impose some severe penalties on the Phils for negotiating such an underhanded agreement in the first place.

    So, if we trade Hamels, maybe he’ll re-sign with the Phillies, but maybe not. The point is, we cannot do anything now to influence Cole’s decision this winter when he is looking to sign a free agent deal.

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  25. Let’s start by dumping Victorino to LA for Garrett Gould
    Hamels to TEX for Olt, and Martin

    OR

    Both to say TEX for Olt, David Murphy, and maybe Justin Grimm/ Martin Perez

    Then Wiggs, Blanton, and Pierre (could get Thome like return)

    Keep Polly and offer a Invite to ST next year, as insurance for whoever will be at third (Olt, Headley, Castellanos whoever…)

    Trade Overbeck and A/AA pitcher (Colvin/Morgan) to SD for Headley

    Resign Colbert… BAM Headley can play left and we have a solid lineup
    Lineup Rotation Bullpen Bench
    Rollins SS Halladay LR: Kendrick/Cloyd Kratz/ FA
    Utley 2B Lee MR: Diekman Galvis
    Ruiz C Hamels Schwimer Luna/FA
    Howard 1B Worley Aumont FA
    Olt 3B Kendrick/Cloyd SU: Bastardo FA
    Pence RF FA/DeFratus
    Brown CF CL: Papelbon
    Headley LF

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    1. eh what? Overbeck and Colvin for Headley? It would probably be enough for Todd Hundley that’s it. Headley is a border-line all-star with team control.

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    2. Overbeck brings zero value in a trade. Colvin brings very little value. Try May and Hernandez and they may not hang up the phone laughing.

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    3. If they keep “Polly” they will pay him the 5.5 million they owe him on the option on his contract , so if they offer him an invitation to Spring Training, I think he will stick around anyways. Unless it is assumed they can buy out the option and he will still be available for signing a minor league contract and will sign on for maybe a chance to be a bench player in Philly, i find this dubious.

      That randomly assigned list of names at the end, think it is supposed to be some kind of a roster, never seen anything like that before.

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  26. Pleased to read here that a sale of a larger kind is to take place soon. The present team is fading away to a place reminiscent of the repetitive losing ways Phils fans are familiar with—pre-2007.

    Having had that run has been thrilling, as we had in town briefly the most feared and winningest team in MLB. RAJ put all of his eggs in the free agent basket to bring another WS triumph in 2011. Fell short. But can’t blame him IMO if that fell short. A wonderful ride!

    Now the consequences are that the team has reached an exhaustion point through aging and the great disappointment of 2011. The essential need is an influx of talented youth who would develop while vets Rollins, Halladay, Ruiz, etc lead the way.

    Trading parts of this moribund team IS the way…and were it up to me I’d trade all these names and get back some serious about ready prospects: Hamels, Lee, Vic, Polanco (if anybody’d have him), Pierre and Blanton (if anybody’d have him).

    Fresh faces with talent would reinvigorate the team and provide energy aimed at more than just one season in the future. With the right ready prospects, and the vets showing the way, it could take only a short time to regain competition for playoffs.

    And, with those big time salaries gone, signing Hamels out of FA would more likely happen.

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  28. 8 – Fire Amaro

    9 – Fire Manuel

    Can’t believe they didn’t budget for Rash. He is one of only 8 guys picked in the first 10 rounds who didn’t sign. Kudos Amaro, you turd.

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    1. Anonymous you should read this post by bps about Alec Rash before you go into a tantrum. “Interesting info on BA regarding Rash. Does not have the same stuff this summer which sheds light on Marti’s comments. In a BA chat yesterday, they say they expect the Phillies to sign a few late round picks but didn’t offer any names.

      Alec Rash, rhp, Adel DeSoto Minburn HS, Adel, Iowa (Phillies, second round): Rash showed a 91-93 mph fastball that touched 95 during the spring, but he has worked in the upper 80s during Iowa’s summer high school season. Philadelphia has pulled its offer to Rash, making it likely that he’ll attend Missouri.”

      It is clear why the Phillies did not sign him as he is either injured or not built to be a starting pitcher. We still have the 95th pick and the allotted bonus money for next year.
      Reply

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    2. 22-year-old 1b in A-ball with a <.750 OPS and 4/1 K/BB ratio…not exactly enticing. We get a pick if Vic turns down a qualifying offer- where would that be?

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