General Discussion – Week of 7-9-2012

Weekly Discussion

I do believe I have a touch of the All-Star Fever.  No wait, I’m fine.  Discuss.

79 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 7-9-2012”

  1. Now that we need to start our 2013 planning, what prospects should be called up before September and what should their roles be on the big club? What guys should be moved to keep from blocking those players? My thoughts in no particular order….

    1 – I’d like to see Tyler Cloyd get a chance to start the remainder of the season. Believe the Phils will have to move Blanton to do that, and I don’t see a reason why we wouldn’t trade him to the highest bidder by 7/31 and call up Cloyd at that point? What compensation do we get for Joe if he leaves via free agency? My guess is none as I don’t think we could afford to offer him arbitration as he might accept.

    2 – Domonic Brown needs to get back playing at AAA and then spend two months, IMO, as an everyday, and I mean EVERY DAY, outfielder in the majors. They need to pick a position and let him go out there and just play and see what he can do. At this point, they are not going to bench Pierre, Victorino, or Pence so one of those needs to be traded, with likelihood probably in that order. At this point, as with Blanton, I don’t see any reason not to trade Victorino and Pierre.

    3 – Other guys I could see traded would include Wigginton, Polanco, and Fontenot. I don’t think we have other position players in the minors that have the potential to be everyday major league players that are currently in AAA, or are ready for their opportuinity now in AA. However, I wouldn’t mind seeing more of the Pridie’s, Overbeck’s, and Frandsen’s of the world get an opportunity as bench players / part time players the remainder of this season.

    4 – Bullpen – Would really like to see Bastardo optioned at this point to work on his mechanics and then come back quickly after that. I think its vital that Bastardo, Diekman, Schwimer, and DeFratus get regular, consistent innings the remainder of the year in the big leagues. I think when the time is right, giving Aumont, Rosenberg, Ramirez, and/or Bonilla some opportunities wouldn’t hurt either, when deemed ready.

    Like

    1. 1) I’m not sure anyone would bite on Blanton at this point. Hamels might bet the one traded to give room for Cloyd. Which is fine, so long as we get a good return and we RESIGN HIM IN THE OFFSEASON (you reading this, RAJ?).

      2) Pierre definitely needs to get traded. We’d be selling super high on him. I don’t see any way he reproduces this season ever again, looking at his trends the past few seasons. Shane is expendable at this point, too. Pence is the only one I am thinking should stay, because he’s still in his prime.

      3) Wigginton might draw a little interest. Fontenot would be a useful bench piece for a contender. Polanco is obviously still great on defense. The problem is I can’t see us getting anything of worth for any of them, and as you said we don’t have any prospects that would benefit from them being moved. So why bother? Hernandez is the only notable IF prospect with a marginal chance of being ready for some time in the Bigs, but Utley is blocking him, not those three.

      4) I think Diekman, Rosenberg, and Bonilla are ready to play in the Bigs for the rest of the year. Bastardo certainly needs to fix something, not sure what it is. Aumont and Ramirez can spend the rest of the year in the minor. JDF is still recovering, but after he rehabs, put him in the Bigs immediately.

      Like

  2. Since “we” are starting “our” 2013 planning, I already know that I’m going to be training for an Ironman. But, I think what you really meant was what the Phillies should be doing for their 2013 planning. So, in response:
    1 – I’d like to see Cloyd get a start or two in the majors this year as well to get his feet wet. However, one thing that is clearly not understood well on this board is the need for depth. If the Phillies go into next year with him penciled in as their fifth starter, they are in trouble. They will need to have a lot more guys available that can start in case of injury. Having him as the 7th starter is a much better option.
    2 – Brown will likely be playing every day in AAA again when healthy. He isn’t now, so any comment on him not playing needs to be focused on that. I would love to see Victorino moved as it seems as though he has worn out his welcome and both sides are ready to move on (not basing on his play, basing on what I’ve read in the media). If the Dodgers were ready to move Zach Lee in the deal for Carlos Lee, hopefully they’d be willing to make that move for Victorino as well. Trade Vic, use Pridie as a short-term option, insert Dom when he is healthy.
    3 – Not sure why you would want any of those guys traded. I guess Fontenot would be worth a trade, but he was also on waivers earlier this year when the Phillies acquired him. If you trade Polanco, Wigginton becomes your every day third baseman. If you trade Wigginton, you replace him with…Overbeck? That is not an upgrade, and you won’t get anything for Wigginton (ie see what the Phillies traded last year to get him). More than likely Polanco is your third baseman in 2013 anyway.
    4 – How exactly is Bastardo going to get regular innings out of the major league bullpen if he is optioned to AAA? You say he should be recalled quickly, but what if he continues to struggle in AAA? Then what? Makes no sense. Would like to see DeFratus throw an inning of professional ball this year before giving him regular major league innings. The bullpen at this point is a lost cause for the year and the team just needs to figure out who it can rely on in 2013. Relief pitchers are the most volatile commodities from season to season and unfortunately all of the relievers this year are having off seasons…not unlike 2008 when everybody had a career year and the team won the World Series.
    In short…what would I do? Trade Victorino. Trade Pierre if he has any value. Sign Polanco to play third again in 2013 (he’s relatively cheap and the 3B market is thin). Throw a competitive offer at Cole and hope for the best. Then sign another impact bat regardless.

    Like

      1. Come on, no need for the language just because you didnt like his opinion on your opinions

        Like

    2. 1 – I said he should get a chance to pitch to see what we had, I did not say he would be a part of our plans for next year. I would like to find out, wait since we are being WIP-like today, let me rephrase for you Ironman, I would like the Phils to find out if he has 5th starter potential so that he would be one of the candidates in the mix for that role, or is he really not a big league pitcher. Might as well collect the data this year.

      2 – Agreed.

      3 – I highly doubt Polanco is this team’s third baseman next year, maybe a platoon with Galvis and insurance in the infield, but this team will not go into next season with Polanco as it’s everyday third baseman.

      As for Wigginton, he is a good bat against LHP and a lot of teams would like to have him as a bench guy or platoon guy come playoff time. The Phils could easily get a prospect for him, albeit not a highly ranked one.

      As for who plays 3b this year, I could care less to be honest. They could play Frandsen, Fontenot, Mini Mart, etc. All of those guys are a step down from Wigginton offensively, but a step up defensively. Either way, the Phils dont need to win games now, they need to make smart trades that will help next year and beyond.

      4 – As for the bullpen, you obviously don’t get it. When Justin DeFratus comes back, he’ll have thrown several minor league rehabs and at this point, he will clearly be not only of our relievers with the most future potential, but he will also have the capability to help this year as much as anyone. I want JDF getting regular bullpen innings much more than I do Brian Sanches or Horst, they are not part of our future, JDF is.

      As for Bastardo, you option him to AAA now and let him go work on his mechanics for 2-4 weeks and get straightened out without any pressure. Once he regains his form, you recall him and give him regular innings. You ask what happens if he doesn’t? Um, then you let him continue to work on things and call him up when he gets better, or on September 1st.

      And last thing Ironman, you don’t have to sign Polanco for ’13, he has an option year the Phils can exercise if they want to keep him.

      Like

    3. They were never going to move Zach Lee for Carlos Lee… I think it was Gould.

      Like

    4. 1. Mostly agree, the premise is sound, it is likely next year that Cloyd is 5/6 and you are hopefully looking at J-Rod and Pettibone being that depth behind, but you can only make Cloyd that if the guys behind can step up and give you some starts if needed.
      2. Given current timetables I would expect to see Brown about the first week of August in either center or left depending on Vic and Pierre trades. Hopefully they just tell him the job is his to end the year and just let him struggle and hopefully adjust.
      3. None of those guys are really hot commodities, if they really wanted to move Wigginton he would be intriguing for a fringe contender but you are looking at the Thome trade as the ceiling on compensation. Polanco’s future is entirely dependent on if they manage to get a 3B in a trade for anyone. But if there is no young replacement give hima reasonable 1 yr deal.
      4. Unless they think they can still make a run for some stupid reason, they let the young guys pitch and just let them make adjustments and maybe a couple turn into keepers as solid bullpen pieces going forward.

      Like

    5. There is honestly no more tiresome sports website move than correcting someone for using “we” and “our” in connection with a given team. Grow up and drop the cheap shots.

      Like

  3. someone tweeted last night during the futures games that 16 of the 17 players the phils gave up in the lee, halladay, oswalt and pence deals either have or will play in the majors. wow …

    Like

    1. That’s probably not accurate. We know Knapp isnt going to make it. And the probability that Santana, Villar and Zeid all make it is very unlikely.

      Like

      1. And Cosart has expressed some displeasure with the ‘Stros org, base on ‘philosphical (sp) differences’…so he may be moving on.

        Like

    2. And just because Donald and Marson made it to the bigs, I wouldn’t say we lost a whole lot there in that trade. At this point, same for Cardenas and Taylor.

      Like

    3. Have any of them really made an impact in the pro’s yet? D’Arnaud looks great, but hasn’t debuted yet, same with Gose, Villar, adn Singleton. The lee deal: Marson marginal backup, Donald is a bench guy, Knapp has serious injury concerns, and Carassco is hurt, and wasn’t lighting it up before that. Nobody from those trades has yet to establish themselves as MLB regulars yet

      Like

    4. All four of the players the Phillies received in the Schilling trade played in the majors.

      Like

  4. Lisaverto Bonilla was on pace for a September call up. No idea how extensive his hand injury is but would like to see him pitch a few innings in the majors.

    Like

  5. How far off is DeFratus? Really needs to get some innings in so we know whether we can count on him next season.

    Like

  6. PYW but to what degree will they contribute, look at lee trade, is marson or donald, anything to brag about, and what ever happen to the pitcher, who name escapes me. just because they are called up,doesnt mean they are top players, taylor made the majors for what a month,did nothing, look at us, calling up some of the guys we have, in the bullpen,they stink ,but we are desperate, horst, sanchez, my question is how many will be allstars or near allstar players, or good regular players,

    Like

    1. Singleton D’arnaud and Gose all look like good regulars, possible All-stars. Santana and Villar could become every day players too. Cosart probably a decent bullpen guy.

      Like

    2. Marson doesn’t have many ABs this year but his OPS is over .800. He seems to have become a decent backup catcher. With Santana on the same team he’ll never be a starter, but in the right situation he might still become one. The jury is still out on Carrasco- he hasn’t pitched this year after TJ surgery.

      Like

  7. Let Joe Blanton go…and sign Cole with the extra $10.5M of Joe’s 2012 salary. And suppose, Polly, Vic and Wiggy are gone, that gives you an added $20M collectively. Sign Josh Hamilton.

    Like

  8. Bring up Cloyd. Trade Blanton for a “decent” prospect. Aumont to stay at LV until he gets some command. Give Frandsen a shot at untility infielder. Give the other relievers auditions, especially DeFratus IF he is healthy. Include Dom in a trade for worthy, “ready”prospects and play them for the rest of ’12.

    As for reviewing our trades of our own prospects, what’s done is done. Living in a world of regret does nothing to fix the situation at hand. Move forward. We know there’s a lot to be done. Go!

    Like

    1. Honestly? What are you expecing to get for Domonic Brown? We’re better off giving him an actual shot at being an everyday player.

      Like

    2. Trade Brown, but bring up Frandsen. Solid argument…sigh. (no offense meant, just think this is rather short-sighted)

      Like

      1. IMO Brown’s days in the Phils’ org are numbered. He has become their own problem child with revealed defensive shortcomings, inconsistent hitting and curbed power. And an oft-injured player season by season up through the minors and now again. I believe the FO office would like to cut and run from him and would be more than willing to get some team who’d chance his potential as alive, not mordant. As a “significant throw-in” he could help bring back a better prospect.

        Frandsen has nothing to do with regular playing time for ’13, but rather to see if he could qualify as a decent utility infielder.

        OUT-OF-BOX thinking.

        Certainly deserves a response, YES?

        Like

        1. The response is that this is short-sighted. Out of the box thinking doesn’t necessarily mean good. Trading Brown now would be selling low. They would get nowhere near his actual value in return.

          Like

  9. Cole told Leslie Gudel that if traded for prospects that would help the club, its business, and he may be willing to re-sign in Philly after the 2012 season.

    Like

    1. Cole always says what he’s thinking, but maybe he should have kept that to himself . . .

      Like

      1. I don’t think it is a terrible thing to say. He has made it pretty clear he wants to see what his market is. He realizes that the Phillies are losing now and don’t want to lose him for nothing and may try to get something for him. He is really saying there will be no hard feelings if he is traded, not a guarantee he will come back but that he won’t hold a smart baseball decision against the team.

        Like

        1. It’s not the worst thing he could say, but I just wonder if you say that publicly. Does it take away from what you could get for him. If I’m Texas, for example, I’m not sure I’m entirely sure I’m going to give up as much for a guy who might just re-sign for that team anyway. Not a big deal at all, it just feels . . . sticky . . . to say that out loud

          Like

          1. I don’t think Cole thinks about the return the Phillies will get when he speaks publicly about these issues.

            Like

  10. Trade Cole if he cant be resigned bys deadline, Trade Vic, Wiggs, Pierre, and Blanton for whatever type of value you can get. In the case of Blanton I dont think anyone will want him…. I would even explore trading Pence as the OF is the easiest to replace and its not like he is a Key player….

    Like

    1. Trading Pence is basically deciding that we aren’t going to be a playoff team in 2013. I doubt (and would be against) the front office making this move.

      Like

      1. Possible outcomes if Pence is traded. OF FA as of RIGHT now that could fit. Hamilton (doubt he leaves Tex) Cabrera, Upton, Quintin.

        Then we have in house possibilities in Utley (Galvis at 2B), Brown, and Mayberry.

        This is just the thought if they are swept away for a trade of Pence. Remember hes going to cost over $15 next year and if traded the team getting him can get picks if offered Arb.

        Like

        1. Quentin is going to cost as much or more than Pence, and isn’t a significant (if any) upgrade. Cabrera has been a significantly worse player than Pence over his career, and I’d wait to see how he finishes the year. We aren’t getting Hamilton, and Upton will likely be traded and is a pretty big enigma.

          We have no way of knowing if Utley can play LF — and even if he can, he would be a average, at best, offensive corner outfielder and put our worst offensive bat at 2b. That is a offensive downgrade. Mayberry shouldn’t be in the conversation for possible starting lineup spots, obviously.

          Like

  11. Saw on MLBtradrumors.com that there might be interest in Polanco but it was unclear if the Phillies were willing to move him. If the Phillies decide this year is a wash, why wouldn’t you ship out a bunch of the older guys who are on 1 year deals? Polanco, Fontenot, Pierre, Blanton if you can get anything half way decent for them since they probably won’t be back next year anyway. Keep Wigginton if you think you can compete next year, since as a backup, he’s a good player

    Like

    1. Polanco can be brought back at $5.5M next year, which isn’t a ton of money for a everyday starter. I would prefer that we move on without him, but I would imagine the primary concern is that the 3B Free Agent market is VERY thin this year, and you might not actually be able to find someone better.

      I expect Pierre to be most likely to be moved, and possibly Victorino (if someone offers more than what we’d get in draft compensation). I think they’d move Blanton and Wiggington (doubt he comes back) if a decent offer is available.

      Like

      1. Victorino is playing so poorly that you might not want to offer him arbitration out of fear that he would accept and obtain a raise he does not deserve and, in effect, give him a “pillow” contract that he could use to get a better contract the following year. Arbitration is a two-edged sword on occasion.

        Like

      2. I would hope the Phils do not have to pay Polanco $5.5 million next year. I hear what you are saying about the FA options being sparse. I still do not think there would another team trying to pay him $5.5 million. Therefore, if he is actually the best option (God bless the Phils if that is true) I suggest working something out to pay him $2 million for a year. Throw the extra cash in the kitty for one of the other of deficiencies.

        Like

        1. Best Case scenario is trade hamels for Olt but is he ready next year? I doubt it, plus Polanco’s bat may be a little empty but his D is still superb. Have you seen Fonts and WIggs play 3rd? It has cost us so many runs but not having a reliable glove over there! $5.5 mil for awesome D if no other options is GREAT. We pay $10 for JRoll for the same darn reason.

          Like

          1. If we got Olt, he will absolutely be starting opening day 2013, at the latest. He is also very well regarded for his defense.

            Like

      3. Ask yourself: Is Placido Polanco going to earn $5.5 million on the open market? He hasn’t been very good this year.

        Like

        1. Yes, he will. His defense alone is worth $5.5 million. It isn’t a bargain, but it is the going rate.

          Like

          1. Alberto Callaspo (similar type player) makes like two million for the Angels. Polanco would be lucky to get $2-$3 million on the open market.

            Like

          2. I think what you’re missing is that his defense is going south. At his age, you can’t expect a rebound.

            That said,I don’t think it’s crazy to pay him 5.5 million, he might even be worth it, but if I had to guess I’d say he will get less than that. OTOH, if they don’t pick up a third baseman in a trade, picking up the option might make sense to avoid the possibility that he signs elsewhere, given the lack of other 3B options. If Polanco signs for 3 million elsewhere and Wigginton is the regular at 3B for the Phillies next year by default, I hardly think the Phillies brass would be patting themselves on the back for their astute move in not picking up the option.

            Like

  12. My hope in trading some of these guys like Thome, Wigginton, Blanton, Pierre, Polanco and Victorino is that we get enough mid range type prospects to be able to make a deal with the Padres for Headley, or with another team for a comparable guy.

    Next year’s team could look like this – Ruiz C, Howard 1B, Galvis 2B, Rollins SS, Headley 3B, Pence RF, Utley LF, and either Brown/Mayberry in CF, or a FA like Bourn / Melky / etc, depending on their demands and performance of Dom Brown the rest of this year. Lineup could be 1 Bourn 2 Headley 3 Utley 4 Howard 5 Ruiz 6 Pence 7 Rollins 8 Galvis or 1 Rollins 2 Headley 3 Utley 4 Howard 5 Ruiz 6 Pence 7 Brown 8 Galvis.

    For the pitching staff, 1 Halladay 2 Lee 3 Hamels 4 Worley 5 Veteran FA / May / Pettibone / Cloyd. Bullpen would be Papelbon, Veteran FA RHP, Bastardo, Diekman, Stutes, DeFratus, and Kendrick, with Aumont, Schwimer, Rosenberg, Bonilla, Ramirez and others waiting in the wings.

    Like

    1. If Utley has the ability to play 2b, he should be playing there. We have no way of knowing if he can handle LF, and he’d likely be average at best defensively, and average at best offensively for a corner OF.

      Like

  14. Btw, Mike Newman is going to have an article on Mitch Walding on fangraphs soon — he’s very impressed.

    here is a youtube video of him he made:

    Like

  15. Fantastic news for a change:

    Justin DeFratus tweets:Scheduled for my first rehab game tomorrow for gulf coast. Prayers for health are appreciated. Hopefully I can get back quickly!!!

    Like

  16. Great news about Defratus playing. Would Arizona consider Pence and May for Upton? How much more? If you got one Upton, might free agent to be BJ come here? An outfield of Brown/Mayberry, Upton, and Upton sounds very good to me. Probably not likely though…

    Like

  17. I find it hard to believe that the same guys who brought in this horrid bench will make correct decisions. Pierre batting second is their only saving grace. You only have to say Lance nix to prove my point.

    Like

    2. I don’t think Nix proves your point at all. Nix is batting .326/.392/.587, in an albeit small sample size. Granted, he’s been hurt, but I don’t think you can fault Amaro for signing Nix. The offense would be MUCH better if he were playing against right-handed pitching over the last few months than they were with Wigginton and/or Mayberry out there. Just look at their numbers against RH pitching and you’ll see what I mean.

      Like

    3. What horrid bench? Our Bench has been performing better than our Starters. Wigginton, Nix and Pierre have been solid to really good and have completely outperformed what I figured they would do. THEY ARE BENCH PLAYERS. If you sign bench players hoping for production equivalent to a healthy Howard, Utley, Rollins, etc you’re going to have a bad time.

      Like

  19. Just thinking out loud, with Blanton, Palonco, Victorino, Contreras coming off the books next year(I know you need to replace them, but cheaper players could certinaly match thier 2012 production), and Hammels already making 15 million this year. They can certinly sign him without increasing the payroll just by backloading his contact a little untill Roy’s contract expires freeing up another 20 million. The smarter move is probably to start rebuilding but I don’t think fear of the luxury tax will the reason they can’t make a deal.

    Like

        1. Right, I’m assuming it’s because they don’t want to be stuck in the same position they are now(lot’s of big contracts to older players). So if that’s their biggest concern then it’s time to bite the bullet, because someone is going to give him the years. Trade Hammels for the best prospects you can get. And do the same thing next year with Doc if the team is not competitive.

          Like

        2. And hopefully by the time Lee’s and Howard’s contracts end some of the talent you picked up is starting to mark their mark with the big club.

          Like

    2. The problem appears to be twofold (obviously some of this is speculation, but informed speculation). The first is contract length, with Hamels looking for at least 5, and more likely 6 or 7 years. It’s not that the Phillies can’t “afford” that, it’s that they (correctly) don’t think it is wise to give that length of contract to a starting pitcher.

      The second is that it looks like Hamels wants to test the market, and won’t forgo that option unless overwhelmed with what would be an over market offer. At this point, I wonder if 150/6 would even get it done.

      Like

      1. And the first people to complain that the Phillies are cheap for not giving Hamels 6 or 7 years NOW are going to be the EXACT SAME PEOPLE that complain 4-5 years from now about his terrible contract and how bad Ruben is.

        Like

Comments are closed.