Around the System–Starting Pitchers, Bottom Half

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A look at the starting rotation in the lower half of the organization.  Limited stats for WIlliamsport and GCL, so limited analysis as it isnt fair to draw any conclusion based on the small sample size. Next up, the bullpen, sometime next week.

Lakewood

Ethan Stewart, 21, Phils 47th round pick in 2010;  16 games; 4-6 with a 3.21 ERA; 81.1IP 57H 43BB 54K; 0.95 GO/AO; .197 opp. avg., 3 HR allowed; 1.22 WHIP; 4.7BB/5.9K per nine; .220 vs LH, .188 vs. RH, .192 with RISP. 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA in June.  Stewart has been excellent as of late, although needs to get done the walk rate for continued success.

Ramon Oviedo, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 1-6 with a 8.72 ERA; 7 starts; 32IP 39H 16BB 25K; 1.00 GO/AO; .312 opp. avg., 1.72 WHIP; 4.5BB/7.0K; .340 vs. LH, .292 vs. RH, .378 with RISP.  Ugly thus far.

Lino Martinez, 19, Signed as a free agent in 2009; 13 starts; 3-4 with a 6.50 ERA; 62.1IP 67H 36BB 31K; 0.67 GO/AO; .271 opp. avg., 8 HR allowed; 1.65 WHIP; 5.2BB/4.5K per nine; .229 vs. LH, .293 vs. RH, .284 with RISP; 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA in 3 June starts.  Has been pretty consistently bad since the beginning of the year. Lots of HR allowed, lackluster control and hittable. Bright side: Only 19.

Ervis Manzanillo, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2009; 13 starts; 1-5 with a 5.37 ERA; 57IP 72H 29BB 43K; 1.14 GO/AO; .306 opp. avg., 1.77 WHIP; 4.7BB/6.7K per nine; .288 vs. LH, .314 vs. RH, .318 with RISP.  Manzanillo was just placed on the DL for the second time this year, possibly explaining his numbers.  Hoby Milner was called up to take his place in the rotation.

Colin Klevan, 21, Phils 33rd round pick in 2009; 15 starts; 4-6 with 4.69 ERA; 78.2IP 85H 27BB 64K; 11 HR allowed; 0.92 GO/AO; .270 opp. avg., 1.42 WHIP; 3.1BB/7.2K per nine; .307 vs. LH, .236 vs. RH, .302 with RISP.  The HR ball has killed Klevan.  He has been generally mediocre otherwise.

Williamsport

Josh Warner, 19; Signed as a free agent in 2010; 5 starts between Lakewood and Williamsport; 26.2IP 24H 10BB 18K; 1 HR allowed; 1.18 GO/AO; .235 opp. avg.  Warner has a couple of starts for Lakewood prior to the WIlliamsport season starting and struggled but has looked real good early in the WIlliamsport rotation.

Ulises Joaquin, 20, 3 starts; 0-3 with a 3.95 ERA; 13.2IP 13H 7BB 12K; 1.07 GO/AO; .241 opp. avg.

Jon Musser, 20, Phils 21st round pick in 2010; 2 starts; 0-2 with a 21.60 ERA; 3.1IP 5H 8ER 8BB 2K.

Delvin Perez, 21; 2 starts; 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA; 8IP 6H 7BB 2K.

Jordan Guth, 21, Phils 9th round pick in 2012; 3 games (2 starts); 0-0 with a 3.27 ERA; 11IP 8H 0BB 6K.

GCL

Manaure Martinez, 20, 3 games; 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA; 15IP 11H 5BB 15K;

Yacksel Rios, 19, 2 starts; 0-1 with a 3.72 ERA; 9.2IP 14H 3BB 4K.

Luis Morales, 19, 2 starts; 0-1 with a 7.88 ERA; 8IP 15H 5BB 7K.

Franklin Vargas, 17, 2 starts; 1-0 with a 6.43 ERA; 7IP 5H 8BB 7K.

17 thoughts on “Around the System–Starting Pitchers, Bottom Half”

  1. Vargas is a guy that is someone to watch, as they must think fairly highly of him as a 17 year old.

    The entire Lakewood rotation has been average/disappointing, with the exception of the hit/9 rate that Stewart is putting up. Based on his K/9 and BB/9, I think this is more lucky than good at this time.

    They have always liked Warner a lot, and at this point I think he is the best prospect of this bunch (with Vargas the next best).

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    1. Stewart has been the most consistent over his 14 start with one poor outing, is that lucky I think not.

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  2. Anyone know when Shane Watson and Mitch Gueller will make their debuts? They were added to the GCL roster awhile ago and haven’t pitched yet

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    2. Sorry boys. Even stretching you didn’t get that one. Look up how to spell his name. Good luck.

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  4. The only pitcher in the bunch that could be considered for a top 30 spot in the organization is Ethan Stewart. I hope Musser saved most of his bonus money.

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    2. Stewart’s peripherals are pretty stinky. He’s got work to do before being considered for the top 30 imo. Warner on the other hand is having some success and is presumably rawer than most his age because he’s an Aussie. I’d have to agree that he’s the top prospect from this group right now.

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      1. You guys are probably right. There must be something about Warner. He is relatively new, but he is at Williamsport and the other guys of his experience are either in Extended spring or in the GCL bullpen.

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    3. I’d agree on Warner. He had a rough start last year, but is improving. Last year when he was good he was very, very good. He has been uneven, which is to be expected. Stewart has been a pleasant surprise. If he improves this year as much as he did last year, he should be someone to look for in the future.

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  5. It seems like only yesterday that the lower levels were stocked with pitchers but light on position players. How the tides have turned …

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    1. Last year’s draft was very light on HS pitchers and several of the college starters the Phillies draft they moved aggressively through the system (Both Adam Morgan and Austin Wright are in the Clearwater rotation and pitching well).

      There was a lack of position prospects so the bulk of the bonus money the Phillies paid out last year went to position players. Larry Greene, Roman Quinn, Mitch Walding, Tyler Green, etc… The Phillies went much heavier on HS pitching in this draft, but the top two haven’t debuted yet and Rash hasn’t even signed yet.

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  6. Another thing to keep in mind when looking at the relative strength/weakness of the pitching at these levels:

    1. Morgan and Wright bypassed these levels already. These 2011 lefties are both starting at CLW, and having a fair amount of success there. Despite the W-L records, I like Morgan (22) a fair amount more and could see him cracking the top 20 of our system. His K and BB rates are very strong, and his adjusted ERA (3.03) suggests he has been a bit unlucky as well. He’s only allowed one unearned run. Wright (22, almost 23) has pitched well, but a notch below Morgan. His peripherals, particlularly the K rate, has tailed off the last 10 games or so. Both of these guys should be starting in Reading in 2013, and that is pretty solid for two left handed starters to go from drafted to AA in two years.

    2. A few guys that have been impressive in relief, Ryan Duke and Kenneth Giles. Duke (23) who filled in yesterday for the LHV doubleheader, actually started the year at LWD, and was quite impressive in CLW. He didn’t get the fanfare that Knigge gets on this board, but he was every bit as good and we can now see how he transitions to Reading. Giles (21) is primarily been doing 2 innings of relief per outing, with a few spot starts earlier in the year. Still needing to get more consistent with his location, his fastball appears to be as advertised (95+), and this is reflected in his K rates. A bit surprised they haven’t tried him as a starter, but I guess they feel his best chances are just focusing on two pitches at this time.

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  7. Unfortunately it seems like the $300,000+ of the “Scott Frazier Bonus” the Phils used to sign Musser in the 21st Round of 2010 Draft is lost. I liked what Ruben did here, using just over $1 million to sign late round picks (Pointer, Musser and Walter). But with Walter’s injuries and Musser’s inability to get anyone out, looks like only Pointer has the chance to return any real value.

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    1. It didn’t work out, but still a sound alternative in my mind. Not every prospect is going to work out, but why not sign three instead of one and increase your chances?

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