Leandro Castro is on a roll. 5 multi-hit games in his last 10.
Mario Hollands and Austin Wright with nice outings, Ervis Manzanillo and Jonathan Musser, not so much. Though Manzanillo left kind of early for his line…hope there’s not an injury there.
LV REA CLR LKW WIL GCL ppd DSL VSL
Phuture Phillies 
Anybody watch Austin Wright in person?? Strike Out guy or crafty lefty?
Besides Asche being a hitting machine, I think the biggest story in the system from a position standpoint, is Collier. 15 RBI in 22 games and still batting +.300.
Dont know the specifics of the PED deal, but it seems like hes took a big step forward this year.
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Collier was taking Adderall for ADHD. It is banned by MLB: http://articles.philly.com/2012-06-18/sports/32283027_1_adderall-clearwater-wrist-surgery
Wright is legit, a lefty whose FB is in the low 90s and has a good curve (at least that’s what was said when he was drafted).
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He says he had ADHD in Middle and HS and took a prescription drug for it, not sure if it was Ridelan or not, but then tried the drug for it again in 2010/2011. Little did he know what drugs are legal for our children in the school system are banned for professional athletic adults. Thats our world today!
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It is legal to take in the MLB, but he took it without a prescription. That is illegal in the world of sports and in the real world. Big difference.
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I thought the article said he had to get permission from the team to take it
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I think the problem was he did not request permission to take the drug (which is required), not that it wasn’t legally prescribed for him to take it. For example, Adam LaRoche and Derek Lowe were required to obtain permission from MLB in order to take the drug and avoid disciplinary actions.
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Taking a prescription drug without a script is now illegal?!?
Shocking.
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Ritalin is actually a stimulant that has a paradoxical effect on children under 12. It seems his timing was wrong.
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Actually the drug was Adderall, not Ritalin. See philly.com article in above BostonPhan post.
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Whoops! That is what I get for reading from the bottom — wrong medicine.
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Wright has been pretty decent striking guys out this year (8.23 K/9) but what stood out in last nights game was 14 ground outs to 2 fly outs.
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I think any time you have a lefty who can maintain that production in AA, he’s legit. Even guys without velocity will garner attention as specialists.
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Jonathan Musser with another ugly line. Frankly, I’m surprised he was promoted after how he pitched in GCL last year. I guess JD Thierren and Shull didn’t beat him out in Extended Spring.
Mario Hollands is the biggest surprise mover so far this season. All of the way to Reading by midseason, after not making the Lakewood rotation to start the season. Moving so fast, he is suddenly age appropriate for the league.
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Yeah, seen Musser at State College the other day. Seems kind of nondescript to me. Same with his successors in that game : Luis Gonzalez and Steven Inch. They seemed kind of nondescript as well. Right around 88 and slightly under. Remember right if Musser, Kevin Walter , and Pointer were late HS signees and split up a Million dollars , 333,000 or so apiece. So, you got an iffy pitcher, an injured pitcher, and an OF if continuing to progress can move into a reserve OF role, it seems to me. And there goes a Million. Looks like the old Draft system wasted money too much. The new system reasonable money, and an earlier start to moving up, looks like it is working great.
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Wow marfis I cant believe they have not made you Scouting director if you can determine after 1 game what players will be in the future you need be hired.
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Weren’t you the guy that said he wasn’t going to post anymore the other day? Or was that another guy with “old” in the screen name, like “Old Grandad” or “Old Crow”. Looks like another step down the trail of broken promises.
By the way, I did say Musser (and by extension- Gonzalez and Inch) was a failure, I said he was nondescript and iffy. There’s a difference. Sometimes those guys can learn some things and eek there way up to a higher level.
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marfis…I think Oldtimer missed your point…the new system doles out the huge monies in the top ten rounds were the probability of success to a MLB career is higher, then the lower 30 rounds or so.
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No I just said I wouldn’t post news anymore I will still point out when you make statements that are less then smart.
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It’s ‘than’.
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But then you said, “So, you got an iffy pitcher, an injured pitcher, and an OF if continuing to progress can move into a reserve OF role”. Seriously, relax on the extreme hyperbole. You’re not running for office.
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Hollands and Shreve have followed similar paths this year. Started in LWD and they both did rather poorly. Promoted to CLW and they both perked up. It was like the light bulb came on for both. Now they are both at Reading and doing fine. Shreve had a rough first outing in AA and then has given up only 1 run in his last 10 1/3 IP. Hollands was relieving in LWD and then they put him into the starting rotation and he’s been there all the way through AA.
In the VSL, Freddy Zorrilla intrigues me. He’s a big 17 year old (6’4″ 195). He hitting .391 in 6 games with 4 Ks and 4 BBs. His OBP is over .500. It’s the VSL so who knows if he’s beating up on grade school pitchers but I like his size, age and the fact that he’s hitting the ball.
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Jiwan James just increased his walk total on the season by 25% in one game (12 to 15)!
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I think he had the stat line of the night of any position prospects. I do not include Jason Pridie as he’s not considered a prospect. That’s a big step for James as he needs to find ways to get on base.
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Knigge interests me right now. I really like what Austin Wright has done thus far and Walding might just possess the hit tool we’ve been looking for.
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Walding is scalding the Spalding (do they use Spaldings?). I couldn’t resist that. I’m wondering if he would have started in LWD had it not been for the logjam of 3B. Asche, H. Martinez, Franco all had to play. I’ll be checking Walding after 20 more games to see if he’s a man among boys.
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…and now Carmona. I guess he will go to GCL, unless they start promoting everyone.
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There is not even room for him at GCL, Zach Green is there
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When they drafted Carmona they announced him as a 1B. That’s likely what they see him as. Seen in CWS, looks like a “get hit by ball-pick it up-throw to first :” type at 3B.
But, see Serritella and Perkins as manning 1B/DH at WPT, and forget 3B, so I figure they move Carmona to LF, Larry Greene to RF, Pointer to CF, and work Olmo and D. Gonzalez more as bench players. He’s enough of a hitter to go to WPT, I say.
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Utley- somebody on here the other day (or was it philly.com- harder to tell them apart) said Utley was hitting like .129 in HI-A so would be of little use. Now he moved up to AAA and is hitting .400. Now, he’s great. They should call him up.
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Williamsport is by far the most interesting follow right now. The Greenes, Pointer, Walding and of course Quinn. Walding is spanking the ball while Larry Greene is showing elite discipline. We’ll see how things shake out.
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Ruf with 2 more walks. That’s 14 in his current 9-game streak. Only 5 hits in that span. Slashing .231 / .524 / .346 in his last 10 games.
Looks like AA pitchers have decided not to pitch to him. I guess the Phillies want to see how he handles the Barry Bonds treatment before they move him up?
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you need a position for him as well. Since he’s only 1b DH you don’t really have a spot for him. Overbeck is 1b and the DH role is split between which ever infielder or outfielder isn’t playing the field that night.
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Well yes, position is a consideration. But when someone is so good for their level that they’re not getting pitched to (which may not be what’s happening, but it sure looks that way), I think you have to find a place for them at the next level. Especially since Ruf looks like a legitimate prospect at a position of need.
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Its far from certain that Ruf is a “legitimate prospect”. As well as he’s hit, you have to hit A LOT better for a MLB team to make room at 1b for you.
1b is also not a position of need for the Phils due to presence of Howard, even with the injury.
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Ruf has had a comparable or better numbers to Howard’s equivalent year at every level in the minor leagues so far.
i.e. He had better numbers in low A than Howard in the year they were drafted. Better numbers in A in their second year. Better numbers in A+ in their 3rd year. And about equivalent numbers in AA in their fourth year (this year).
If the extrapolation continues, Ruf will win ROY in 2013 and MVP in 2014. I’m ready to move Ruf up to AAA to see if he can replicate the next step in Howard’s trajectory.
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Well, not quite equivalent this year. Here’s how they faired at equivalent year/level:
year 1 (A-): Howard (.384 / .456) Ruf (.377 / .496)
year 2 (A): Howard (.367 / .460) Ruf (.443 / .548) (yes, I know he then struggled after being promoted to A+)
year 3 (A+): Howard (.374 / .514) Ruf (.388 / .506)
year 4 (AA): Howard (.386 / .647) Ruf: (.414 / .531)
Okay, so Howard was better in his 4th year in AA with his crazy power explosion, but Ruf has better on-base skills and decent power himself. It is an interesting comparison. I don’t think he’s as good a prospect as Howard was at this point, but I think he’s definitely a prospect.
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One line each:
year 1 (A-): Howard (.384/.456) Ruf (.377/.496)
year 2 (A) : Howard (.367/.460) Ruf (.443/.548)
year 3 (A+): Howard (.374/.514) Ruf (.388/.506)
year 4 (AA): Howard (.386/.647) Ruf: (.414/.531)
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If Ruf was putting up a .647 SLG you’d have a lot of people looking more favorably at his prospect status.
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Fair enough. A 115 points of SLG is a big difference, but Ruf has a 30-point OBP advantage, which is equivalent to about 50 SLG points. A difference yes, but not a huge difference.
The point is that their numbers have tracked pretty closely at equivalent levels overall.
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Semi-agree. Basically, Ruf is doing about the same as Howard did until Howard went from being a fringe-mediocre prospect, to putting it together and becoming a top 30 overall minor league prospect. Ruf is just missing the “putting it together” part.
As for your post below regarding Utley — its a huge difference in being a 2b vs 1b. The major leagues is filled with failed 1b/dh types that CRUSHED the minors. If Ruf was even a mediocre fielding player at any other position he would be looked at much higher.
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That should have read “fringe-marginal” not mediocre. He was someone that was interesting, until his big season wasn’t sniffing the top100 lists.
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Ruf has a 165 wRC+ this year. Kemp and Fielder were 4th and 5th in mlb last year with 171 and 162 wRC+ respectively. That gives you an idea of what Ruf’s doing to AA right now.
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In year 3, Howard was 23 and Ruf was 24 and he turned 25 in July. That is actually a big difference in prospect status. In Howard’s age 25 season he won RoY. Ruf is in AA. I don’t think they’re comparable.
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This is a good point, but professional experience does matter too.
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Okay, one last post on Ruf. People often talk about how he had to “repeat a year”. Here’s how his first 2 years matched up with another college prospect’s equivalent years:
year 1 (A) : Utley (.383/.444) Ruf (.377/.496)
year 2 (A+): Utley (.324/.422) Ruf (.335/.421)
So he hit just as well as Utley did in A+. They then double jumped Utley again to AAA, where he hit (.352/.461) in year 3 and (.390/.517) in year 4. Ruf is hitting (.414/.531) in AA in year 4, so it looks like he’s tracking pretty well with Utley’s development too.
I’d say that a first baseman who hits like Utley is a prospect. Utley’s career 130 wRC+ would have been the 8th best among ML first basemen last year. Throw in an average glove and that’s a 3-WAR player.
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In year 2, Utley was 22 and Ruf was 23 and turned 24 in July. That is a big difference, forgetting Utley plays up the middle.
Look, I like Ruf too. Looks like he can hit. But he does not compare to Howard or Utley, even if you compare him to the years when those guys hadn’t put it all together yet.
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A better comp is Matt Rizzotti. When he was 25 he spent all year in AA and had a .392 OBP and .511 SLG. Ruf is at .411/.534 and turns 26 in a month.
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That’s a 147 wRC+ compared to 165 for Ruf, and in his 5th year and second time through AA, so I would say that comparison favors Ruf.
Now what’s interesting is the year before Rizzotti was even better than Ruf: he hit (.448/.628) in AA before going up to AAA and hitting poorly, and has never been quite the same since. But then, his .400 BABIP in A+ and AA that year suggests he was on the mother of all hot streaks.
But overall I think that Rizzotti is a fair comparison. My point is not that Ruf will turn into Howard (unlikely) or even Utley-at-first (though I’d consider that a plausible ceiling). My point is that he should be in AAA and should be considered a legit prospect (I’d rank him around 7-10 right now).
I’d say that Rizzotti’s 2010 alone would have made him a legit prospect, but his failure to replicate that performance before and since and his bad fielding (I believe he’s well below average at first) sunk his chances.
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Put Overbeck on the bench if need be. It might seem harsh but Overbeck has been very “meh” at AAA and Ruf is even far outproducing his AA numbers at this point. No way Overbeck should be blocking Ruf, nor should one of the other org filler guys on the Pigs be blocking him.
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GCL tries to get a game in today with a few of the new signee’s…
Pullin batting 2nd and playing LF (not 2b, at least not yet)
Zach Green is batting 7th and playing 3b
Cozen continues to man Rf, and is batting 6th
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Pullin throws a guy out at home and Green draws a walk in his first plate appearance. Good start. I swear I become more encouraged when I see these kids take a walk than I do when they hit a single. A bit of an exaggeration perhaps, but not much of one
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I think the Pullin to 2B conversion will occur in Fall Instructs, I don’t see how they move him to a new position without some reps ahead of time. I think right now they just want him to hit and they will worry about where to put him later. The amount of walks by these guys has been awesome.
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I agree that it doesn’t make sense to move him to 2b now, although this makes a large logjam at OF for GCL worse. Hard to find playing time for Pullin, Cozens, Golden, Knight, Rodriquez, and Tromp. Although Tromp and Herlis are starting to make that decision easier (yah…its early).
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Nice game for these three half way through the contest:
Cozens 2-2 3b bb 2rbi
Pullin 1-2 hbp 2r sb 1assist
Green 1-2 2b bb
On a rough note, young aruba prospect Jiandino Tromp continues to be ter-ri-ble in the early goings. Phils clearly had high expectations, having him bat 3rd in the season opener. He’s started the year 1-18 with 11ks.
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Jiwan James back in the lead off spot for Reading today. I’ve always viewed James as a fringe prospect at best, but his June line is a bit of an eye-popper considering the month is just about finished. Still a small sample, but BB and K rates took a drastic change for the better in June. Something to keep an eye on perhaps
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Doesn’t James always have these little hot streaks now and then?
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He usually has a hot hitting streak in June, but his walk and strikeout rates usually don’t change during the streaks.
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I always get excited about improvements made by James considering how much potential people say he has. However, remember he had 3 BBs last night. So before last night he had a BB% of around 6.6% for June, not the 9.6% shown on firstinning.com. Let’s hope he can start drawing a few more walks, as he has the speed to be a threat on the basepaths.
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Looking at Jiwan James’ year so far, it looks pretty similar to all of his other years in the minors: Batting average in the 260s, ops around 700. OBP is down a bit, but slugging is up a bit as well. The big concern for me it the lack of steals – he’s not even really attempting to run that much. Does anyone know why those numbers are significantly down?
– Jeff
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i didn’t realize ludy was assigned to lakewood, bypassing rookie ball.
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..too old for GCL and maybe the Org didn’t want to impact the Numata/Moore tandem’s development in WPT. Seeing his numbers in college, the hit tool should probably translate to LWD but I admit I know next to nothing about his defense.
Nice problem to have when you have if you ask me…better than Org filler up and down the minors.
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Dom Brown now on DL.
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This is in reply to the discussion about Ruf v. Overbeck. I wrote all this and posted as a reply to Handzus somewhere up there, and it looked like garbage so here it is looking less so.
If Overbeck’s going to hit like he has this season, (.735 OPS), he’d be better off moving back to third to work on his glove. To compare/contrast to a familiar name, (not offering as a comparable player), Ty Wigginton started MiLB 2 yrs younger, but his 24 yr old season he spent at AAA Norfolk. Overbeck spent his 25 yr old season split between AA and AAA. This is how they look:
PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
WIG 435 383 49 115 26 3 6 48 5 3 43 50 .300 .366 .431 .796
OVR 503 459 58 127 17 1 24 72 1 6 31 125 .277 .331 .475 .806
Fielding, I’ll compare the last significant data for Overbeck at third – both guys were 24 yr olds – Wiggy at AAA, Overbeck at AA.
Err FLD RF
WIG 10 .913 2.28
OVR 17 .908 2.20
Obviously Overbeck hit for more power, (just shy of .070 ISO more), but part of that was at AA and he was a year older, albeit with one less professional season under his belt. Wigginton walked more, but OPS is within 10 pts. Pretty close. As for defense, fairly similar RF and Fld%, as much value as you can put in those numbers. It should be noted that Wigginton played a much better 3b a year later in his rookie year in the bigs – 16 errors, .962 FLD and 2.78 RF over a full year at third for the Mets.
Now, recall that Wigginton added value to his stock by playing a good deal of 2b throughout his career. Overbeck hasn’t done so. And could we expect the same defensive production from Overbeck if he switches back to 3B and somehow winds up in the majors in 2013 playing a full year at third as a rookie? Doubtful, IMO. I’m not entirely sure how Wigginton pulled it off to start with.
Now, please, rip apart my logic and statistical findings. Go ahead, if you read all the way through, you deserve it. Just no name calling.
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I think Wigginton’s hit tool and defense were simply better than Overbeck’s. Wigginton to start his career was a fair hitter whose glove made him a starter for a few years. Overbeck doesn’t have those tools. I think they’re similar in style, but Overbeck is a lesser version.
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Even learning LF would help Overbeck out. Although I think they may have already tried that and it didn’t work out. To me it looks like Overbeck will top out as a AAA player with maybe a cup of coffee here and there. I agree with Alan on the Wigginton comp. As for Ruf, the Phils probably have other reasons for not calling him up yet because Overbeck just isn’t much of a prospect at this point.
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I get to see lv on tv and what i have seen of overbeck, can’t see him as a big leaguer, maybe a bench player on a bad team, but thats it, maybe i am missing something, he is slow, glove is below average, limited range, and a 260 hitter.
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That’s a fair assessment. Overbeck has big power. He hit 12 home runs in half a season in Williamsport, twice as many as anyone else on that team. He tied for the organization lead last year. But he simply doesn’t have the contact skill to make the most of that power.
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Yikes Asche looking like a bust so far in AA. When guys get off to starts like this it’s hard to come back. He’ll finish off with a pedestrian .265/.290/.499/.789 and fade into oblivion. I look at him as another Jason Donald/Brad Harmon/Chico Cortez type.
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Can’t tell if trolling or srs.
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Probably small-sample serious. Not accounting for the fact that it is the biggest jumb in the minors, right?
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