Box Score Recap 6-24-2012

Box Score Recap

Lisalverto Bonilla – last 10 appearances.  17.1 IP, 4BB, 9 H, 27K.  Struck out the side tonight.  Killin’ it.

LV  REA  CLR  LKW  WIL  GCL, DSL, VSL All Off

70 thoughts on “Box Score Recap 6-24-2012”

  1. The big news from the system is that the Threshers’ park was flooded due to a Tropical Storm. Haven’t heard if that will effect any home games, they’re on the road until Thursday.

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  2. The closers in Reading and Clearwater continue to surprise me. Friend in Reading and Knigge in FL. Knigge is 23 while Friend is 26. ERAs are so small I need a magnifying glass to see them: Friend @ .36 and Knigge @ .73. Friend is unscored on at home and Knigge is unscored on away. I’m finding it hard to pick a favorite so I looked at both. I’m discounting them based on age but their pitching lines are yelling for me to pay attention. and so I will.

    Altherr has been on a tear. 7 -12 in his last 3 games with a HR and 5 RBis. I’d like to see more consistency. He’s 2nd on thwe team in SBs with 20. Hudson leads the tweam with 22, which is surprising because he can’t get on base. He must be stealing 1st a lot. I noticed Hudson has played in 1 game in 8 days. Is it a nagging injury or just giving him some time off?

    Stewart had a nice game yesterday with no ERs in 6 IP and only 1 BB. In his last 4 games he’s pitched 24 innings and given up 5 runs. That’s a 1.87 ERA. But he has 13Ks and 11 BBs. He’s got to get the BBs down.

    Quinn has been hitting the ball;well and he’s a terror at the top of the lineup but he’s had an error in each of his last 4 games. 3 were fielding and 1 was a throw. I know… Galvis had 21 as an 18 year old. Villar had 56 as a 19 year old and Derek Jeter had 21 in his 1st year. Quinn might be so quick and fast that he’s getting to balls no one else gets to and then fumbling it. I’ve seen official scorers who think that if you can get to the ball then you can call them for an error. We’ll see if that’s the case over time.

    As a final shout out, Lakewood is 8-4 in it’s last 12 games. It used to be that I’d check the box score to see how they lost the latest game. Now some of those games are going their way. Chris Duffy and some better pitching is a major reason for that. Maybe duffy’s hitting is rubbing off on Altherr and pretty soon it gets contagious. I was excited at the beginning of the year. Lakewood had the fastest outfield prbably ever assembled. A lot of tool sheds on the team. Pitching looked like it could be good. Then the season began and it seemed to be a nightmare. Poor starting pitching, poor relief, no hitting and errors popped up at the most inopportune time. Let’s hope this team is ready to show what it can do in the 2nd half of the season.

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    1. Two interesting starts last night – stewie and Garner. Both allowed few baserunners but also struck out few. I liked that they both generated lots of outs on the ground. While each have had their rough outings, there is reason to like both. Keep it up guys!

      As for Lakewood, they seem to be a different team so far post-ASB. Let’s hope they keep it up.

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  3. Hyatt has been a disappointment this year. It’s a shame, but we certainly have enough pitchers coming up to forget about him.

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    1. If he was pitching better he would at least be another option to come out of the Phillies’ pen.

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  4. 3B at least semi-prospects on 6/24
    Cody Asche 0for4 w/ 2K
    Harold Martinez 1for3 w/ 2K
    Maikel Franco 0for4 w/2K
    Mitchell Walding 0for5 w/2K

    Leandro Castro- seems like stealth move up, at least solid for AAA next season, with some possible MLB consideration late or next season.

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    1. Aside from a brief half-season at Williamsport several years ago, Castro has never had a .800 OPS season. He’s had 1800+ minor league at-bats, and I don’t expect much to change for him. He is absolutely nowhere close to a MLB player at this point.

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      1. Looks like the old “won’t take a walk – will never see the MLB” theory dressed up as something else. Seems if you consider players who won’t take a walk to have a less than .300 On Base Percentage, then Philly has a few guys on the roster and even the starting line-up disproving that at this time. Philly should move many older players in the offseason and they have little to replace them with other than outside sources which may require a waste of resources. Castro can hit some, run , and throw and though I might like other players at that age group better, there may be some of those who may not have the requisite experience or accomplishment at the proper level, and/or the Front Office may be unwilling to move to the MLB. I say Castro is a candidate at this point, and some economic and logistical factors may bear on that concept.

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        1. This (low OBP) is one of the reasons why the Phillies are struggling this year, though the drop in pitching is more the issue. Regarding OBP, in 2011, they had dropped to .323 OBP, after .332 in 2010, .334 in 2009, and .332 in 2008. This year they are down to .319. It’s not a good trend, and their slugging is actually up this year compared to 2011 (.404 vs. .395). It’s only part of the story of their struggles this year, but plate discipline should not be underrated. The top six scoring teams are ranked 1, 5, 2, 6, 20 (Toronto), and 3, respectively. The Phils are 12th in runs and 15th in OBP, and in their park, they need to do better, unless they can pitch every year like its 2011.

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          1. We never replaced Burrell and Werth in terms of the way they worked counts. I know intangibles and non Sabr stuff is mostly forbidden on this site, but a hitters ability to work the count, work a pitchers pitch count, forcing a guy to show and use more of his repitoire, etc has significant impact on the rest of the lineup. We really have one guy that does that which is Utley and to a lesser extent Ruiz. Back in ’08, we had Utley, Burrell, Werth, and Ruiz, now we have Ruiz and half a season of Utley every year. Any benefit of this is basically outweighed by the fact that we have a lineup full of 5’8″ hitters who think they are Mark McGwire.

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            1. I’m not sure that working the count is an intangible. It’s not like “heart” or “hustle” or something. You can track how many pitches a batter sees per at bat, how he performs in different counts and, yes, in a crude way you can measure it via OBP and walks. High OBP is going to correlate with selectivity at the plate. And, of course, you can also track how selective teams as a whole are by looking at how many pitches they see per game. The Red Sox and Yankees of a few years ago were famous for being maddeningly selective, which allowed them to get into the opposition’s bullpen early in the game.

              Anyway, point is, I totally agree with you, and I think the stats back you up.

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            2. And I in turn agree with you 100%, my point wasn’t that working pitchers is an intangible, but that certain commenters on here believe it is…..

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            3. I think you have a mistaken impression of commenters here. The same people who respect stats would agree with you with regards to “working pitchers,” if not usually expressed that way. The same people who don’t respect stats (except perhaps for small sample, traditional stats devoid of context), don’t respect “working pitchers.” One thing to keep in mind is that, for all practical purposes, “working pitchers” amounts to “plate discipline,” and results in a lot of walks. Yes, yes, not quite the same thing but the correlation is close to 100%. There is no such thing as a player who “works the pitcher” but doesn’t have plate discipline and doesn’t walk.

              Now, my guess is that you have a different impression because sometimes the more ignorant posters, who don’t REALLY care about “working the pitcher,” or at least don’t know what it really means, use it as a club to beat up on players they don’t like. Chiefly Rollins, who, if the ignorance on this board is any guide, is the most under appreciated player in Phillies history. Those of us who disagree with that ignorant criticism do so, not because we don’t believe in the importance of “working the pitcher,” but for the following reasons:

              (1) In fact Rollins is about average in pitches per plate appearance. A tad under, but not significantly so. (One irony about the Galvis comparison is that he is substantially worse in this regard.)
              (2) Any negative that exists here (a tiny one at best since Rollins is about average) is massively outweighed by his positives as a player.
              (3) The “working the pitcher” canard is mixed in usually with other statements, which are either likewise factually incorrect, or, in some cases, represent “intangibles” that really do mean little or nothing. And
              (4) The alleged lack of an ability to work the pitcher (again, in Rollins’ case a canard) is often presented as some sort of character flaw, as something that could be easily fixed if the player would only make “adjustments.” This is, of course, not close to the truth.

              Finally, it is true that the Philles are worse at “working the pitcher” than they were (and, relatedly of course, and of even more significance, worse at getting BB). But who do you think is more concerned about this? The stat guys constantly going on about BB rates for prospects? Or the non-stat guys, thrilled at the notion of promoting to the majors – as regulars!! – players who don’t walk enough to have an OBP above .300?

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            4. Wow, we mostly agree on this which is cool. Now about Rollins, I tend to agree and disagree with you in much of what you said. I also agree that there are many things he does for this team that are generally underappreciated – his physical talents as a defensive SS, his instincts defensively as a SS, his baserunning (not just SB’s, but his general baserunning skills), and his offensive talents for the position he plays. His detractors will say he doesn’t play hard, doesn’t run balls out. While this is true, I can hardly think of a time when he didn’t hustle on a play he needed to hustle on. When I see him jogging slowly down the line on a routine ground ball it doesn’t make me happy, but in most or all cases it doesn’t change the game. Yes if I was his manager I would bench him for it and maybe that’s why I wouldn’t be a good manager in the 2012 timeframe when it comes to that topic.

              Now let’s talk about his plate discipline and his approach. What bothers me about Rollins, and actually even moreso about Pence and Victorino, is the approach, not necessarily a lack of walks or number of pitches seen per plate appearance, but the approach. Let me use an example. A guy comes up with 2 outs and nobody on in a one run game in the 8th inning. In his head, he is thinking “If I get a fastball on the inside half I’m gonna take a rip and try to tie this game”. If a guy get his pitch and swings at it, regardless of the result to me that is a good approach, meaning he had a plan, it made good sense for that moment in the game, and maybe he hit it out or maybe he popped it up, which is a matter of execution of the swing, not a bad approach. What I don’t see Rollins, and even moreso the others named above, do is to try and hit balls the other way when they are down in the count. I see guys that are trying to hit a pitcher’s pitch on 2-0 and 3-1 counts rather than taking the walk and trusting the next guy, or taking the pitch in hopes of getting a better one on the next offering. That is where to me Rollins is lacking. Does it mean he’s a bad player? No, not at all. Does it mean he could be much better offensively than he is right now? Absolutely. The fact of the matter is this approach won him an MVP award, and the Phillies a division title in 2007, so it can work, but I don’t believe it is sustainable over a long period of time which is why we see him go in such streaks as a hitter. During the times he is not locked in, it sure would be nice to see a low batting average offset by a higher OBP.

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            5. I ran the top 10 players this year in BB%. Nine of 10 are above average in pitches per PA, most WAY above average. Only David Wright is (a little) below average. Should be obvious, but just to counter the uninformed claims that we are talking about two entirely or largely distinct skills.

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            6. Intangibles are things that cannot be measured. Pitches per at bat is a completely measurable quality.

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        2. You apparently want to field a team that wins 60 games next year. That’s if Halladay is healthy and Hamels re-signs.

          If you can’t keep your OBP above 300 in the minors, lord have mercy on what ML pitchers will do to you. What you seem to fail to grasp is that the ability to take a walk is not just the value of the walk itself (not to discount said value), but also the ability to swing at pitches you can square up and pass at pitches that you can’t. Pitchers with stuff and command, i.e. Major League pitchers, will eat Leandro Castro (and Valle, and J. James, etc.) alive.

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          1. In addition, the idea is that it is bad for hitters to make outs. The higher your OBP, the fewer outs you make. Hence a high OBP is good. One way to have a high OBP is to have a lot of walks.

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          2. Agreed. And here is the thing, this team has 3 primary options to fill bench / platoon roles – 1) Veteran FA’s, i.e., Thome, Gload, Fontenot, etc., 2) Minor Leaguers, i.e, Castro, Mitchell, Frandsen, Gillies, etc., or 3) Younger FA’s in the 28-32 age range. Option 3 is how we got Jayson Werth as an example, how Toronto got Jose Bautista, how SF got Aubrey Huff, etc. Now I understand that for every Werth, Bautista, and Huff, there are 100 examples of players that don’t work out, but my point is that it is better to mix in a younger bench guy with upside each year once or twice – they are hungry, they want to play well so they can play more, etc. I’m not saying veteran bench players aren’t hungry and I’m not saying teams shouldn’t have them becuase they should, but going the route of all veterans is not necessarily the best approach. In the Phillies defense, maybe they would say that’s what they did with Michael Martinez, Laynce Nix, John Mayberry (albeit not through FA), and Ben Francisco and they just picked the wrong guys. Point is, this team, with this payroll, and these expectations, will not go into ST next year with James, Gillies, Castro, and Mitchell battling for the 4th and 5th OF spots, nor should they.

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        3. Show me a successful major league outfielder that has a comparable walk and power numbers. If Castro is on our major league roster next year, will be a very very unsuccesful team.

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        4. Castro is a player to me with obvious strengths and weaknesses. I don’t see him as an all-star. I think at best he’s a player that you could live with but you’d probably want someone better if you were competing for a championship. As a starter. But I could absolutely see him being a successful 4th outfielder.

          As far as next year though, there’s plenty of guys floating around AAA as corner outfieldes who should be as good or better.

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      2. I like the way you gouge the stats! Take one –his first full at LKW—season out of the mix…2010…granted his 555plus PAs were the most for him in a season, .but what do you have then as for OPS?

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        1. Taking his 2009 LKW season out of the mix and you are still left with a guy that projects to be a 5th OF.

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    2. My understanding Mitch Walding’s defensive prowess is outstanding and will not be moved off 3rd…any others see him to attest to that?

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      1. Saw Williamsport play last Thursday and (at least during this game) he didn’t appear comfortable with anything hit hard. A few balls seemed to eat him up. He did make a couple nice plays on balls hit softly where he was able to charge the ball.

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        1. I saw him play last night and he made 3 quick reaction plays plus a few others. I thought he did very well. He is probably getting more comfortable with his new position with each game.

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          1. I hear he is adjusting faster than they had expected at third.Other than last night Walding has benn hitting the ball well. Had two 4 for 5 nights with 10 RBI’S.

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          2. About 75 percent of his defensive game looks good. He’s very good at charging and throwing on the run. Very accurate with his throws when on the run. The only problem I’m seeing right now is when he goes to his backhand. He struggles to pick it up clean, and sometimes will then sail the throw to first when he throws it off his back foot. He’s going to be a work in progress defensively, but he’s close. He’s got a plus arm and has a chance to be a plus defender, he’s just maybe not quite as polished as some of the other guys who have been here in recent years. But he’s also nowhere close to being Anthony Hewitt either.

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    3. Allow me to open my head and spill it out…we’ll know what the Phils think of him this off season when the decide to protect him on the 40-man or not. And if they don’t, we’ll know what everyone else thinks of him on the day of the Rule 5 draft. It’s probably Collier, Castro and James vying for one spot, (based on no real analysis), and I will guess that the Phils protect James if he shows even a modicum of improvement in the second half, and Castro gets drafted and returned, and no one gives Collier a chance. Now, if the team manages to move Pence before the trade deadline or before the roster decision day and does not keep Victorino, then who knows. They may protect both Castro and James and give them and Gillies a shot at one big-league roster spot in the spring, (with Brown, Mayberry, Pierre/other FA and Nix as your first 4 OFs). Highly unlikely they go into 2013 with three double A guys as their only fifth outfield options, though. Even in that scenario, someone will be there from the minor league free-agent market to also compete for that spot, a la Podsednik iin 2012.

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      2. Collier is easily the best and most high profile prospect in this group and he is only twenty-one. Would be surprised if they exposed him to Rule 5.

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        1. Agree. Collier has the highest ceiling too. A player like Castro is nice to have around and could eventually be a nice 4th OF. But Castro is also replaced pretty easily (think Mitchell for one). James is a trickier protect decision IMO. Will he ever develop real power to go with his defense? Gose made that leap to some degree but James has not yet. I think Collier will also, though he is younger and has a little more time to do so.

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      3. Speaking of the Rule 5 Draft, the following Phillies system players become Rule 5 eligible if not protected on the 40-man by November 20:
        Name Pos Age
        Trevor May RHP 22.8
        Jonathan Pettibone RHP 22.0
        Nathaniel James OF 23.2
        Julio Rodriguez RHP 21.8
        Tyler Cloyd RHP 25.1
        Zachary Collier OF 21.8
        Michael Cisco RHP 25.1
        Leandro Castro OF 23.0
        Austin Hyatt RHP 26.1
        Darin Ruf 1B 25.9
        Harold Garcia 2B 25.7
        Derrick Mitchell * OF 25.5
        Justin Friend RHP 26.0
        Tim Kennelly * UTL 25.6
        Stephen Susdorf OF 26.3
        Drew Naylor * P 26.1
        Anthony Hewitt OF 23.2
        Juan Sosa P 22.7
        Colby Shreve RHP 24.5
        Jeremy Barnes 3B 25.2
        Cody Overbeck 1B 26.1
        Troy Hanzawa SS 26.8
        James Murphy 1B 26.8
        Tyson Brummett RHP 27.9
        Chance Chapman RHP 28.3
        Christopher Kissock RHP 27.2
        Kyle Lafrenz C 25.4
        Nicholas Hernandez LHP 23.9
        Miguel Alvarez OF 22.8
        Gabriel Arias P 22.6
        Albert Cartwright 2B 24.7
        Edgar Duran SS 21.4
        Jordan Ellis P 26.8
        Frank Gailey P 26.6
        Carlos Perdomo 2B 22.2

        * Also Minor League FA

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        1. The first four pitchers and Friend are the only ones I’d be worried about leaving unprotected. Possibly Collier if he has a very strong year (350/475/825)

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        2. May, Pettibone, JRod, and Cloyd are no-brainers at this point. James, Collier, Castro, Friend, and Mitchell could become decisions but likely no on 3 or 4 out of these 5. Mitchell is probably the biggest risk to be taken, but has the least upside of the 4 OF’s listed in this group. I can’t imagine protecting Friend based on his age, BB rate, and the fact that he was left unprotected in the MiLB Rule 5 a few years ago.

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        3. Did the bulk of the work, but I figure :
          the following players would qualify also:
          Luis Paulino, RHP
          Carlos Valenzuela, INF
          D’Arby Myers, OF
          Kyle Hudson, OF
          Carlos Best, RHP

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            1. Yeah, that’s what anonymous had in the original post. Nathaniel James, that’s the name.

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  5. Hyatt has to be hurt. He dominated at Reading last year, now he can’t get people out. Can’t be the same guy.

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    1. Lots of Phillies flavor too. Jarred Cosart made the hot sheet, while Pettibone and Anthony Gose are ‘in the team photo’. Unfortunately, Brody Colvin is on the not hot sheet.

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  7. Phillies Brass need to start promoting and challenging some of their relief pitchers especially Friend who is 26 to LV ( release Sanches or Purcey ) and Knigge who is 23 to Reading ( release or demote Galley 4.96 era or Morillo 8.49 era ) These 2 guys are not 19 yr olds that need nurturing and with the bullpen mess of the big club they need to know if these 2 are keepers.

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  8. The way things are going, Bonilla may have an outside shot at a major league debut this year. Hopefully for the Phillies, if it happens.

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        1. He didn’t come up through the Phillies minor league system, so he hasn’t been over-valued yet.

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      2. Valdes has been really good and Savery has been decent. Neither deserve to go down. I’d take both over Rosenberg and Valdes over Schwimer. Qualls is the one who needs to go.

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  9. I agree Friend needs to move up…not sure what they are waiting on. Asche just needs that first hit.

    Also was listening to radio yesterday – Domingo Santana (throw in for pence trade that many of us felt might be best player in that trade is absolutely tearing it up in houston minor league. Also, most of those prospects from Cliff Trade (1st one) have done next to nothing.

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    1. I think we were all surprised when Santana ended up being the “throw-in” in that trade. A throw-in isn’t supposed to be the guy with maybe the most upside in the deal. I know he’s in a true hitters league but that still kinda hurts. And he’s not even 20 years old yet.

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    2. Not sure I would classify him as “tearing it up” in the California league. He’s 25th in the league in OPS and still striking out at good rate. But he is the youngest qualifying player in the league so overall he’s doing well.

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      1. He’s also playing for Lancaster in the California League. The only place where hitters could thrive more is the Moon.

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    3. FWIW – Josh Zeid was the throw-in in that trade. Santana was a PTBNL, and rumor at the time, which might have been reported as fact somewhere, was something along the lines of the Astros could take any position player in A-ball except Valle and just wanted time to scout more before they decided.

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      1. I remember that we were concerned that it might be Bonilla who would be the PTBNL. I didn’t want it to be either player but I thought Bonilla had the better chance of playing in the Bigs. Santana had huge potential but I thought his chances of making a big league roster someday were low. Santana’s chances are far better with the Astros than the Phillies. Bonilla could be a servicable reliever with closer potential but I haven’t closed the door on starting either.

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  11. I know a few folks mentioned not wanting the VSL and DSL box scores included, but I for one would rather have them up there. There’s a few intriguing names and it’s not like it’s that much work to scroll past them if you happen to be disinterested.

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  12. Sorry to say but i think the Pence deal is going to end up looking like the Cliff Lee, Sizemore, etc trade with Cleveland and Montreal in a few years.

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    2. The Pence deal is nowhere close to that, as it stands unless they all suddenly go insane this is what the Phils gave up in return for what is a legitimate middle of the order right handed bat that while not amazing is still a good player.

      Jon Singleton: Potential 1st division 1B who looks right now to be 25-30HR high OBP player who will probably not be an All-Star but certainly a franchise building block.
      Jarred Cosart: It is becoming more and more likely that he isn’t going to become an ace, if it all works out he is a fringe 2, solid 3, but most likely of all is that he is a fireballing closer.
      Domingo Santana: Prototypical corner OF with incredible power. If he puts it all together he could hit 30HRs a season but also strike out 170+ times a year. More likely in the upper minors and majors his swing is exploited and he becomes a RH bench bat / 4th OF who has huge power but strikes out a ton.
      Josh Zeid: Fringy middle relief prospect who will likely never reach the majors.

      Did the Phillies pay too much? Most Likely but not historic

      Here are probably the two top players that could have been the PTBNL:
      .279/.351/.507 9HR 3SB 74K
      .297/.327/.453 5HR 6SB 40K

      Player 1 is Santana in A ball and a launching pad at that, Player 2 is Leandro Castro at AA. Castro is 3 years older but was signed as an 18 year old to Santana’s 16, if you look at their A ball splits they are similar as well. Just trying to say that comparatively it might not be as bad as you think.

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      1. It’s still pretty bad. It’s unlikely that all four, or even 3 of them reach their potential but even if 2 of them do it’s a steep price for a good but not great OF.

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        1. It’s not just unlikely that 4 or 3 will reach their potential, the odds are infinitesimally small. Even two of them reaching their potential is extremely unlikely. The attrition rate of MLB prospects is ridiculously high. We’re not talking 1/4 make it, we’re talking less than 1/50 make it. It’s easier to tell who will make it as they work their way up, but even then almost all never “reach their potential.” So even if we say that the attrition rate is 1/50, that means they have a 4/50 (8%) chance of having ONE of them making it. That’s ~92% that they got no major league value from their trade of Pence. Who wins the deal then?

          Now none of this really matters, because the relative price of prospects is very high these days, and thus we did pay a very heavy price to acquire Pence. However, I can’t necessarily fault the FO for taking the much better odds in terms of expected performance, even if we didn’t actually need Pence to begin with.

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          1. Not all prospects are created equal though. It’s probably impossible to put a percentage on the likelihood that Singleton in particular, or one of the other guys, makes it. As of right now, Singleton and Cosart look like good bets to at least play in the majors, which is a lot more than you can say for most prospects. Who knows how good they’ll be, but any way you look at it the Phils paid a steep price. Saying you can’t fault them for taking the better odds could be used as an argument for trading any prospect for any major leaguer. But we all know that’s not necessarily smart just because of the odds.

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      2. Agree, the Phillies probably gave up too much for Pence, but they didn’t get totally fleeced, either.

        While I hated for the Phils to give up Singleton, his value to the Phils was reduced because of his position (1B). And I agree that Cosart probably ends up as a closer, though he could be a good one.

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    3. Colon was a 1/2 season rental. The Phillies bought 2 1/2 seasons of Pence for what they gave up. Considering what he did last year (.954 OPS post-trade) and the fact that he’s been the big club’s best hitter that doesn’t wear a chest protector this season — and the fact that he’s penciled in RF next year — I don’t see the trade being lopsided.

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      1. Yeah the book is certainly not closed on that trade. Pence could continue to produce for another 1 1/2 and also yield 2 picks in 2014 that would need to be factored into the trade evaluation.

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  13. Why isn’t Knigge in Reading . He is 23 not 19 and there is a lot of non performers in the AA pen so he won’t be replacing someone with star potential ?

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  14. Hoby Milner makes his first start with the Crosscutters tonight after a great showing in relief his first time out.

    Jesse Biddle, Trevor May also throwing tonight

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