General Discussion – Week of 6-18-2012

Weekly Discussion

Your non-prospect related spot for the week, or “A Farewell To Jim Thome, Big League Regular”.

61 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 6-18-2012”

  2. While the product on the field has been little cause for optimism let’s not forget we now have the ability to spend money. I remember when we used to hear the constant complaints about ownership being cheap.

    Spending and investing are two entirely different things. This season may not go down the way we had hoped but I still see opportunity to get back to 07-08-09 caliber of play. Those steering the ship will need to be savvy investors. We’ll need to get lucky on a few finds a la Victorino when we picked him up rule V and Werth when we bought low on him.

    We’ll have to move a few veterans to change the energy like we did with the Abreu trade. I think it will be fun to watch. I’m interested to see if RAJ has the vision to reshape this team and invest wisely in the future.

    Who will it be?

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    1. I can only assume that Pat Gillick will still be a helpful adviser to RAJ. Apparently most scribes already have Vic, Joe Blanton and a few other non-starters exiting prior to next season. Hamel’s situation seems to be the question mark.

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    2. I don’t think I trust Rube for this assignment. We have a lot of moveable pieces right now, and I know they all won’t yield big rewards, but this certainly is an opportunity to do some damage to other teams’ farm systems. Fingers crossed here.

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      1. What are your suggestions? Outside of Hamels (who still doesn’t have big time trade value due to his expiring contract), who do you think would bring in a huge grab prospect wise?

        I can’t think of anyone – mainly due to some terrible contracts on this team.

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        1. I still say that Pence’s may be the most attractive, though a bidding war could certainly result in a nice return for Hamels. Victorino could net something as well. At this stage, I don’t see any reasonable option other than to trade Hamels if the Phils don’t gain some ground in the next few weeks. The Dodgers are going to go hard after him in the offseason, not to mention other teams. He’d be foolish to sign this close to free-agency, so why not get something in return?

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      2. I really hope he learned his lesson from the Cliff Lee deal ((sounds like he did… he’s admitted to rushing the trade).

        I think he’s smart enough to know that if he trades an asset such as Cole Hamels… he better get a team’s #1 prospect back.

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        1. Guessing at who the suitors would be for Hamels this is who I would demand at minimum:

          Rangers: Profar / Olt + Alfaro (or another 5-10 prospect)
          Red Sox: Middlebrooks
          Yankees: Sanchez
          White Sox: (there is no one worth Hamels)
          Reds: Hamilton +
          Dodgers: Zach Lee +
          Tigers: Castellanos

          I think you can get at least one of those packages because whoever trades for him among these teams likely becomes the favorite to sign him long term and I can see the same if not more interest than Lee a couple of years ago.

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          1. Middlebrooks was not even a great prospect, just because hes showing some ability in the Majors does not make him something I would want. All his stats point to a Reynolds type of player is that what we really want?

            Some of the other players that you mentioned will not be traded because there is no compensation if he departs for FA only the Phillies after offering top $$$ on a 1 year contract will get a 1st rnd and supp pick.

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            2. They will NOT give up Profar, maybe Olt because hes blocked but there is ZERO chance you get Olt or Alfaro and another top 10 prospect from the Highest ranked system in MLB…. If they have a guy to dangle for a trade chip like Olt I dont see them going after a Hamels type but more like Lee… Someone with more than a few months before FA!

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            3. Id settle for Profar and be happy with it. Might even have to include Victorino in the deal to pry Profar away. He’s already the top position prospect in baseball and hasn’t even dug into the surface of his potential.

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            4. If the Rangers feel Victorino is a better hitter than Murphy and better defender n CF than Hamilton that could happen and we might be able to steal some players from them but unless they are 100% behind Endrus, Profar is not going anywhere!

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            5. Beltran last year with his contract could not be offered arbitration and still the Mets where able to get Wheeler who is a top 50 prospect in baseball. There is an easy argument to be made that if you want to win a World Series you would rather have Hamels than Beltran.

              Middlebrooks was a guy who was borderline top 50 in baseball and is major league ready. His upside is borderline All-star with a great glove.

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            6. Didnt say it wouldnt happen just that its unlikely. Middlebrooks to me is a .260-.70 hitter with a 20%+ K rate yes he can stick at 3B and has HUGE power, I just dont see him as being the piece we want with the same type of hitter at 1B…

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          2. Yankees: Mason Williams. Both him and Sanchez have a long way to go but I’d feel safer with Williams. Much better chance to stay at his position.

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  3. The big question to me is whether or not the front office truly views as a general decline, or will they try and hang it on “Look, we got decimated by injuries – we think we can come back with the team, as is, and compete for a World Series in 2013”

    I think that’s the approach they’re taking with the media, but I wonder what they think internally? I’m really hoping they aren’t that naive, but who knows.

    Either way, here’s what I’m hoping what will happen over the next two months (assuming they don’t make up any ground) –

    1) Trade Victorino for a mid-level prospect. Sorry, but that’s all we’re getting for him at this stage.

    2) Trade Hamels. It’s painfully clear that we’re not going to be able to re-sign him in the offseason. Quite frankly, I don’t think he’s worth the 150M/6 years (minimum) that he’s going to command.

    3) Is there anyway we can con someone into thinking “Jimmy Rollins is a winner” type move and basically dump his salary to a contender? I’d not sure who has a need at SS, but it would be something obviously worth exploring.

    It’s obvious that Chase and Ryan have next to no value with their injury status. We need to rebuild, and we need to do it the right way. Assuming Washington gets the fan support to carry a team that’s going to command that type of payroll obligation in the future, they certainly aren’t going anywhere.

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    1. I also forgot to mention that I think this FO is scared to death of the possibility of losing major fan support through a rebuilding effort. I think this is misguided though – this isn’t 2001, it’s a totally different fan base. Would they sell out every night? I doubt it, but I think they can reasonably get 38-40K average even with a much younger, different, team.

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      1. I disagree – the front office is rightfully concerned. First of all, the truly great franchises rarely, if ever, rebuild. They have slight off years but are almost always in contention for some type of playoff spot (think Red Sox, Yankees and Cardinals – can you imagine the Yankees telling their fans they had to re-build? It would never happen.). I don’t see, with their fan support, why the Phillies should be any different. Second, contrary to what folks are suggesting, the Phillies are not yet a branded franchise like the Cubs or Yankees. They are moving in that direction, but are not there yet. If they stink, people will leave and they will do so quickly. They can probably afford a slightly down year or so, but any more than that and fans will leave in droves. They are already bottoming out on game day sales and, if you want to see how eager the fans are to go, just check out Stubhub, where the price of a Phillies ticket has generally dropped to a fraction of the face value for many seats.

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        1. There are just so many holes in this team, that I don’t see how you don’t do a mid-level (at least) rebuilding effort. But you’re right, the Phils ownership really is scared of what you mentioned above that they probably don’t have the guts to do it.

          I’m sorry, but I don’t want to be the Flyers (I know, bad analogy – they try, but just always get it wrong), and make the playoffs but lose in the first/second round every year. I want another WS, and unless they make some major changes, they aren’t getting there. You win with 5-6 key, impact, homegrown players. There’s no other way.

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    2. I think the front office IS naive. They continue to almost completely ignore advanced metrics as a form of analyzing a player (Howard being a key example of this).

      ___

      Just curious though, why don’t you think Hamels isn’t worth that kind of money. Years maybe but $22-$23 million a year is right on point with what his peers make.

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      1. Edit: In addition, they took no precautions KNOWING that Chase Utley’s degenerative knee condition is just that and ignoring the possibility that it could flare up at any time. Also, pretending that Ryan Howard could come back by May 1st.

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      2. I’m probably in the minority, but I think he’s still a bit fragile mentally and can be streaky at times. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a #1 on 2/3rd’s of the teams out there, but I’m not sure if he’s a top #3 in all of major league baseball type guy. I offer $20 a year, and nothing more.

        Keep in mind, if they’re going through a rebuilding effort, the money might be better spent elsewhere.

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    3. Any GM worth his salt realizes that even with those guys back and healthy they still weren’t good enough to advance past the Cardinals last year and they will be another year older next year.

      He also realizes Washington has definitely leaped frogged us and they are built to contend for quite a few years (much like we were in 07-08) the window to win Championships closes quickly IMO without younger players getting their first shot to fill in around veterans.

      I don’t know what the facts are who knows what RAJ’s plan is. I lean toward he believes Howard and Utley will contribute something this season. So while he might sell some of his pieces Hamels won’t be one of them. I really think he would rather take the compensation if he loses a bidding war for him rather than be that guy that traded his home grown 08 WS MVP.

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  5. When I hear people say hamels has little value, because of his expireing contract, that is nonsense.if a team is going for it all, they will pay for him. second he could also sign a new deal with the team or is that impossible,? lee has value, victorino has more value than a mid level prospect, pence has value, they have some players with value, but to me the most value is in trading papelbon if he would accept a trade, but we all forget one thing, i believe this team will spend in free agency, now can someone answer me a question, if we land in the top ten for next season draft, will that tie our hands in going after free agents? wont we lose that pick?

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    1. I totally agree, but the trade market for expiring contracts has been hit hard by the CBA. It is a weighing of options for a team like the Phillies. Take a teams top prospect and little more or what for Hamels to depart in FA get a 1st and supp pick and boost the total amount they have for 2013 Draft. IMO its better used for next draft unless we get a stud blue chipper in return!

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  6. It’s time to move Asche, Collier, and Alonso UP to Reading. The sooner they get their game together at this higher level, the sooner we’ll have them ready for the big club.

    VERY good note: Pettibone’s numbers in Reading’s early game today: 7IP, 4H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2BB, 8 Ks.

    Until now he has never been noted as a strikeout pitcher…depending on location and movement of his pitches but not dependent on Ks. Thus, he has been “relegated” to a poor contact pitcher which does not qualify him for any #1, 2, or even 3 on a MLB rotation.
    Whatever means he used to put up those K numbers is VERY encouraging…and may move him up to #3 of our prospect pitchers…maybe immediately in front of J-Rod and behind Biddle and May.

    There may be a chance that HE can the first of them to be moved up to LV this season.

    Yes…it is only one game but it seems to be a giant and unexpected progression toward our “new” rotation which would be influenced by expected trades of some current residents on the MLB roster.

    Enthusiastic stuff.

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    1. And…also move Cesar up to play 2nd base at LV. We could well use a 2nd baseman for the big team. And would make room for Alonso at Reading.

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    2. Because, yeah, players learn everything they need to at High A after 14 games. #what

      Agree on Asche and Alonso, and one of the beat writers suggested at least the former would be moved up by the end of the month. Maybe we’ll see some roster moves when Utley is activated?

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  7. Ex-Phils farmhand Quintin Berry had 5 hits for the Tigers last night and is hitting over .300 for them since his callup last month (plus 9 steals without a CS). Still K’ing a ton like he used to, but good to see a guy we gave up on succeed somewhere else.

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  9. We have another 3 weeks to figure out how the rest of the year plays out. Trying to see the glass half full, this team has played horrible –

    Cliff Lee spent 3 weeks on the DL and has ZERO wins
    Vance Worley spent 3 weeks on the DL
    Cole Hamels has been great and has been average, altogether nothing special
    Roy Halladay has missed 3 weeks and was not Roy Halladay before that in most starts
    The bullpen has been atrocious (mostly due to injuries) minus Papelbon and Bastardo
    Utley and Howard have not played a single game
    Nix has missed most of the first half after getting off to a good start
    Mayberry has proven to be a really good 4th / 5th OF and a bad everyday player
    Victorino’s season has been uninspiring to say the least
    The defense (mostly Pence, Fontenot, and Wigginton) has been terrible

    AND DESPITE ALL OF THE ABOVE – WE ARE 5 GAMES OUT OF A WILDCARD PLAYOFF SPOT

    Look at the last two years, I don’t know where SF and STL were on June 18th, but it certainly wasn’t in great position to make the playoffs, let alone win the world series. If this team manages through the next 3 weeks and stays within 5 games of a playoff spot and Utley, Halladay, Nix, and DeFratus are all coming back, and then Howard later on, how could we be sellers at that point? Halladay, Lee, and Hamels could go on one of those runs where they are virtually unbeatable, and Utley comes back and sparks the lineup, and guys like Rollins and Victorino turn it around, and Fontenot and Wigginton arent’ starting games anymore.

    This team COULD win the World Series!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    1. Cole Hamels has been great and has been average, altogether nothing special

      … um what? He was a Cy Young candidate before he went into his slump.

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      1. I think you just violently agreed with me, he was great and he’s in a slump, and when you look at his numbers for the year, they aren’t all that special.

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        1. He’s had two bad starts all year.

          Clayton Kershaw’s ERA this time last year was 3.28…

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      2. Typically, guys that end up winning the CY dont have major slumps like that in a season. That’s why they win.

        Is Colbert a #1 pitcher that an beat anyone when he’s on his game? Definitely.

        Is he in that inner circle of eliteness that simply dominates every time out? No, no he is not.

        Considering maybe 3-5 pitchers a year are in that group, its not an insult to say he isn’t.

        Its the reason he’ll end up with an ERA+ in the 135-145 range instead of 160-170 range.

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        1. Roy Halladay went into one in 2010 at the end of August. Either way, guys who win the Cy Young have bad starts… it just so happens that Cole’s had 3 in a row… and one of them was the result of bad defense.

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  10. thats a shame for that kid he will be out over a year most likely.and will take two to get back his strenght if he ever gets it, pitchers are so delicate.

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  13. Sigh. The big league team has problems, and (almost) everyone either (a) engages in absurd optimism about the immediate future if only the team “stays the course,” or (b) makes a series of panic inspired, blow the team up, type suggestions which will only make the team (much) worse.

    It’s going to be be a rough couple of years regardless of what the team does. But the problem with the blow the team up suggestions is that they would result in a prolonged period of truly horrible performance by the big league team. We’re talking potentially a Cubs level of success if some people around here have their way. Let me clue you in guys: the prospects in the upper minors aren’t all that hot. Oh, I think both Galvis and Hernandez are probably going to be major league regulars, but not stars and not the kind of guys you build a team around. Asche could be more than that, but hasn’t shown it yet. He’s more likely to flame out than be a star. The AA pitchers are more promising, but look more like a 3, 3 and a 5. None of them are going to be aces.

    The lower minors – and by lower I mean the short season teams – have a lot more potential. But bridging the gap to those players is more about smart free agent signings and hoping for good health from some of the older players than rushing a bunch of second division type players to the majors.

    Hamels is gone, like it or not. I’m inclined to think that the team is making the right choice, as tough as it is to let the one young star on the team leave. Repeat after me: mainly for health reasons, even the best starting pitchers don’t make it through a 6 year contract without suffering through periods of injury or ineffectiveness. I would never, under any circumstances, give any pitcher a 6 year contract, unless it is an absurd home town bargain on an AAV basis.

    And finally, why the continued irrational hatred for the best SS in Phillies’ history? I like Galvis, but even Rollins in decline is better than Galvis in every aspect of the game.

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    1. The hate for Rollins is hes not the MVP J-Roll everyone wants him to be.

      About Blowing up the team well im not against it as long as its done with some with some outlook to 2013. I dont think we should trade Lee, hes going to be our ACE perhaps as soon as next year, but for sure in 14….

      I agree Hamels is gone, and as I said earlier our best results may be from offering him a 1 year salary arb to gain someones 1st rnd pick (except a lower 10 team) and a supp pick. Remember this will also raise our total $$ Draft cap space and allow more room to sign tough signs….

      IMO Victorino is gone and I do not think hes worth 3-5 years of $12-$15 a year but we really wont know what hes going to get on the open market till he gets there!

      Thome is gone no matter what but he wont bring much in return.

      Do we keep polanco? He has little value but he has an option year at a decent salary next year….

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      1. No for Polanco. The team needs an infusion of youth; he doesn’t qualify, and his physical status is chancy to poor. Trade Lee with some years on his current contract; he’ll waive his limited trade clause to join the Angels or Rangers who seem most likely to compete to the end of the season for #1 in the AL-West and to go to the WS.

        Lots of return there with both of them rich w prospects. Free agency purchases over the winter will be unlikely, IMO.

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      2. “The hate for Rollins is hes not the MVP J-Roll everyone wants him to be. ”

        No. The hate for him is his approach to the game. Some perceive him for having a lack of hustle (which, let’s face it, he’s no Chase Utley).

        And there’s whispers guys like Him, Victorino, Howard, etc, aren’t coachable anymore.

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    1. Clostebol pretty much means he was running some crap over the counter pro hormone. (unless he actually got his hands on the real thing which is rare) Ive been body building for about 10 years now and these things are the rage with the kids. I mean the first thing thats going to get popped in one of these drug tests is these crappy OTC wannabe steroids. Did the HDrol help him? Probably a bit. Is it even close to running actual steroids? No.

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      1. Actually, that makes me wonder. Galvis said the test result found 80 parts per trillion. That seems like an awfully low number for someone that supposedly knowingly took the stuff. Maybe he should talk to the girls he’s been sleeping with lately.

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        2. He should challenge the finding based on chain of custody. Worked for an MVP winner so why not for Freddy?

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  15. I’m excited to see the Phillies’ 2014 major league lineup:

    Gilles OF
    Collier OF
    Hernandez 2B
    Ruff 1B
    Asche 3B
    Mitchell OF
    Valle C
    Galvis SS

    Wow, we’ll be back on top with the best offense in the league. I thought about Brown in the OF but everyone knows he has no heart.

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    2. very good Larry…..a ding at the ‘idiot’ posters you have to continually tolerate….see you haven’t lost your sense of humor.

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  16. i just have to rant. i’m sick and tired of the phillies being horrible with situational hitting. twice they had leadoff doubles and never scored. how do you score one stinkin’ run against jeff francis, whose ERA is beyong embarrassing? and pence has to get wigginton to third in the eighth. absolutely no excuse for that.

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    1. That’s the kind of player Pence is, which is one of the reasons why, at the time, I didn’t think he was the best fit for our offense.

      When he’s going good, he’s fun to watch but when it’s bad… it’s ugly.

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  17. anoni so anyone who doesnt agree with you is a idiot. let me quess college kid who thinks he knows everything. to say that people are idiots, just because they have different opinion is so short sited . what a stupid remark, man the younger generation ,

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    1. It’s not that they have a different opinion, it’s that they overreact to success/failure… and overreact is an understatement.

      … at least that’s how I see it.

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    2. What’s wrong with college? And younger generations? And I agree with you that calling people idiots isn’t cool either. CIVILITY EVERYONE!!!!

      There, I’m sure that’ll work.

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