General Discussion – Week of 6-11-2012

Weekly Discussion

Your non-prospect related spot for the week. Enjoy!

124 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 6-11-2012”

    1. To start, perhaps a Dom Brown can catch more fire and rekindle the Phillies. Shane Vic, packaged with Joe B., could be dealt for another young piece. Any AL contenders have a need for a Gold Glove CF and another 4th/5th rotation guy?

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    2. If I’m the GM I’m putting the for sale sign up now. No sense in waiting for other teams to come to that same conclusion. Be the first one in the market and maximize their trade values.

      – Cole should be dangled for one of Olt, Castellenos, Profar, Middleton. Perhaps pie in the sky but having Cole for June and July could make losing a top prospect more palatable for suitors. And teams like the Red Sox and Tigers have some games to make up.

      – Be ultra aggressive with the Solar bidding.

      – Vic is not playing like a guy who will get much in trade value. Probably better off making him a qualifying offer and collecting the 2 picks next year.

      If we walk away from this season with a blue chip IF prospect, Solar, and two extra picks in the 2013 draft I’ll feel a lot better about our future prospects.

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  2. I don’t think that’s a good idea, although changes need to be made. The one thing this team has going for it is you and me – the fans. The fan base is huge and provides extraordinary revenues to permit the team to make extraordinary acquisitions. Rebuilding would cut significantly into that fan base, thereby tying the team’s hands even more tightly. I think, for now, they need to hold tight a little and see where they are in about a month. In any event, due to the fan base, they are now a little like the Yankees or the Red Sox – they may trade an established player or two this year, but it will and should be for the purpose of retooling the team for 2013. But, boy, the lack of hitting prospects is really killing them right now (the bullpen appears a mess, but the young guys there have a lot of talent and should improve as the year goes on – you can’t say the same for Messrs Wigginton and company – it’s just a bunch of old guys hanging on, which is fine, but they are not starters).

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    1. Interesting report over the weekend that the Phillies were more interested in Middlebrooks than Youkilis, can’t imagine what they would have to give up for him, aside for Middlebrooks being part of a larger package for Hamels

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      1. We kind of surmised that Middlebrooks would generate Phillies interest last month. And that was mentioned here. But the price-tag would start with Hamels, nothing less would the Sox think about.

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        1. You’re right, they aren’t going to trade him unless the package is extraordinary. Do you think the Phils are kicking themselves now for taking the easier sign Mattair over the two sport star in Middlebrooks during the ’07 draft. Both were shortstops who were going to be moved to thirdbase as pros. Save a few bu

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          1. Easier to sign is a road the Phillies have travelled for years. It will be interesting to look back someday and see how that impacted the quality of their system and MLB team. In 2010 the Phillies went with the easier to sign Jessie Biddle over Nick Castellanos, even though the system desperately needed a quality 3B prospect. Who will be the better prospect? Time will tell.

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            1. Maybe it’s a hangover from the JD Drew fiasco, but sign-ability is a big factor in the draft, particularly under the pre-2012 rules. Overpaying is another legit concern. However, neither of these concerns is an excuse for being cheap. And based on draft spending compared to most other MLB clubs over the past several, the Phils have too often been on the cheap end of the spectrum. It’s really hard to understand, given how the Phils have used the farm system as trade bait to supplement the big club over the last 4+ years.

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  3. Any team trading for Hamels right now would only get him for a few months. Are the Red Sox really going to give up Middlebrooks for that? If so, I say go for it!

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    1. Look at the returns Aces with half a season left on their contract have gotten in previous years:
      -CC Sabathia netted top prospect Matt LaPorta (who has since busted hard, but at the time was considered one of the best prospects in the game)
      -Cliff Lee got Justin Smoak (again a top hitting prospect, and Jesus Montero was reportedly offered by the Yankees)
      I think Middlebrooks is a very comparable prospect to how LaPorta, Smoak, and Montero were viewed at the time of the trade

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      1. Great comparisons. I was thinking, “Why not Hamels for a package of Middlebrooks et al”.

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      2. Nah, Middlebrooks wasn’t even a top 50 prospect. Im not giving Hamels for him. Shane? Maybe. His BABIP is close to .400. That’s unattainable for a whole year.

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    2. Hamels will merit the new equivalent of type A compensation (2 top picks) because he will get a qualifying offer of $12.5M+. That plus a few months makes his price a minimum of 3 good prospects. Good as in top 10.

      Vic may be near that $12.5M line so his value based on future compensation may be a little less.

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      1. If I’m RAJ and I am convinced I cannot meet Hamels asking price I am scouting 2 systems right now. The Angels and the Rangers. Logic says both of those teams would be all in to try and steal a WS and neither can be completely comfortable with their rotations.

        The Angels I believe would also think they would have a shot at signing him long term so I think they might be willing to part with the best package. What they have available I don’t know but I do know Trout will be off the table.

        I do think you can do better than Middlebrooks.

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        1. Angels in Southern CA make a lot of sense. They could also give us Peter Bourjos as a CF gap filler for next year. He has been awful this year but could easily rebound to what he did last year given the chance.

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        3. I realize we just signed Rollins for a few more years, but what about starting a Hamels to Texas package with Elvis Andrus? Rollins probably doesn’t want to move to 3rd, but Andrus is 23 and Jurickson Profar is in AA. Unlikely but Beltre is signed for another 5 years and Mike Olt is blowing up the minors. Hamels for Andrus and Olt? I’d do it.

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          1. I’ll leave the who up to those of you that know the other teams systems better than I. I think the point is you might be able to create a bidding war between the Angels and Rangers.

            I won’t pretend to know what is realistic but one thing is for sure. If you make a deal you cannot swing and miss.

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      2. do you have a link for that rule? i thought the player had to be on a roster at a certain time early in the year to merit any compensation for that team? If a team pick a guy up in june, no matter what the offer, i thought the new team gets nothing.

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          1. The new team gets nothing. the Phillies would be the only team that can get compensation by making a qualifying offer at this point so his trade value is somewhat diminished to any team that doesn’t believe it has a serious shot at the WS, or signing him long term.

            I am not advocating that we trade Cole by the way. I would like him signed.

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            1. I don’t think they trade him unless they get blown away. I think they want to sign him to and if you trade him, you essentially throw away any good will he might have towards the organization when it comes to negotiations.

              I still think they get him signed. I don’t think he wants to pitch for the Dodgers… merely use them as leverage to get the deal he wants from the Phillies… because apparently they’ve been lowballing him this entire time. (Jered Weaver money?… get real Ruben).

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            2. Jered Weaver is a very good pitcher who may be better than Hamels. The Angels caught a break when he gave a hometown discount to them.

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            3. He may be better than Hamels but his contract was a HUGE discount.

              Thinking that would be a fair value to Hamels is terrible judgement by the F.O.

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            5. not saying we should trade Cole. But if RAJ knows he can’t resign him and gets a great offer (andrus and Olt like), I’d pull the trigger

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            6. why the hell would texas trade andrus? they are the favorites to win the WS this year without hamels. trading their starting SS (profar isn’t MLB ready yet) makes zero sense.

              I don’t know why I read the comments on this site. 99% of them are asinine

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      3. Yes, I would think the price would be an elite advanced prospect, an elite long-term prospect and a solid middle tier prospect (someone the calibur of a Cesar Hernandez, Domingo Santana or Cody Asche – a really solid prospect).

        The reason that such a trade is not crazy for the Phillies is that unlike virtually every other team that makes trades like this, after the season, the Phillies can still hit the free agent market and get someone very good.

        That being said, I would still prefer to keep Hamels. Trading Hamels could work out, but it’s still very risky. It seems to me that the entire point of operating a baseball team is to acquire players like Hamels, not trade them away. Therefore, I only make that trade as the Phillies if the team is certainly out of contention AND they believe they cannot sign Hamels. Otherwise, I wouldn’t get rid of him.

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      4. andyb…..under the old CBA that is true, and still for the Phillies if he isn’t traded. But once traded as a ‘rental’, it is a big time risk for the receiving team.

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        1. Forgot about that one year thing. Then it makes more sense to not trade Hamels unless we are blown away. Victorino would make more sense then.

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  4. In my opinion the Phils made a huge Bad Karma move when they sent down Valdes and brought up Rosenberg. What kind of message does it send when you demote the pitcher with the best ERA on your team? The message that performance is not valued. If anything, Savery should have been sent down. It could be argued that the two walk-off loses to Baltimore that followed were directly linked to this move as the losing pitchers were Rosenberg and Savery.

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    2. Agreed. While Savery lost it, Valdes had 5Ks in two scoreless innings yesterday. Only silver lining was Schwimer’s stellar outing.

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        1. I was impressed by him… that’s what I’ve wanted to see out of him. A guy pounding the zone and using his off speed to set up his breaking stuff.

          He looked confident and in charge.

          Before, IMO, he looked afraid to pitch in the major leagues and afraid to challenge hitters with his fastball.

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  5. This all hinges on where the Phils are at at the trading deadline – anything under .500 and they are sellers – in which case only Galvis and Ruiz are untouchable; at .500 or more and/or within 10 games of a division lead they are buyers, especially as they will have Utley and maybe Howard back to make a run at the playoffs. Bottom line is they must at least partially rebuild and get younger!

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  6. I actually looked at my calendar to see how long until Eagles Training Camp……..the Phils are beyond tough to watch, but they have given us 5 straight division titles(longest ever run) 2 NL championships and 1 World Series title…………I really think I am an optimist since I still think that if they dont fall off the cliff they can still make a run at that 2nd WC………….I keep thinking things are going to turn around, but the fact is that right now Charlie has a below average 25 man roster, with about 7-8 guys who should be in AAA……….for whatever reason Rueben is not getting a ton of heat from the media or the fanbase(besides a few on here who never have liked him).

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    1. Probably because they are missing their Number 3 and 4 hitter, their ace for 2 months, Worley and Lee missed significant time and have had injuries to many bullpen pieces. There is no team in baseball that can be competitive at a high level with these types of injuries. Historically, the Phils are a great second half team, so I am not writing them off…………….but they are extremely difficult to watch/follow.

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    2. Look to the ‘NY Yankees’ of the NL…the St Louis Cardinals…between championships they struggle, heck in championship years they struggle in the regular seasons.

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  7. Phillies need some type of infusion as the whole team is flat. They really need considering bringing up Domonic Brown and Tyler Cloyd to introduce some new blood. It is really getting hard to watch them trot out Juan Pierre and Ty Wigginton every day. Their home sellout streak is going to end soon if things don’t change quickly.

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    1. Don’t get the constant complaints about Pierre. He’s been their 2nd best offensive player behind Ruiz for the entire season. Yes, he has zero power but he get’s on base and still has enough speed to pose a threat. He’s been a perfect fit in the #2 spot in that line-up.

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      1. While true on a team in desperate need of some OPS and LF being in general a position where you expect to have some pop he’s often singled out. I’ll be honest I preferred someone other than Pierre out of ST but you are right at least he gets on base and gives you a professional at bat.

        Problem as I see it is that guys that should only be role players are being asked to be everyday players and that rarely works.

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        1. And one guy getting on base means less if the guys before and after don’t go the same.
          Two walks(etc) sort of morphs the first walk to the same level as a double. Pseudo power but effective.

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      2. First of all, he is, among players with more than 100 AB, not the second best hitter on the team, but tied for third, roughly, well behind Pence as well as Ruiz. And even that is a product of the team’s lousy offense more than exceptional play on his part.

        More to the point, he’s over his career norms (especially relative to league), and, as a 34 year old player whose game relies on speed, he is very unlikely to maintain that level of play. Add in poor defense, and the complaints are quite legitimate.

        Now that said, I’d probably give Brown a few more weeks in AAA before bringing him up. Of course even then the team has a dilemma with Brown – given his confidence/performance in center, bringing him in to play LF could be counterproductive. Maybe wait until Victorino gets traded, then bring Brown up to play center? Given that it’s a lost season for the team anyway, no real imperative to replace Pierre, unless he is holding back Brown, which he really isn’t at this point.

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        1. Where Pierre ranks in order of hitters on the team is dependant on what numbers are used to make that determination, but it’s also meaningless to the greater point.

          Pierre is not a long-term (or even short-term) solution in LF but his current play is not contributing to the team’s poor performance. DMAR makes the proper point earlier that the primary problem is that guys who aren’t everyday players like Wigginton, Luna, Mayberry, etc. are being exposed by being forced to play everyday while Rollins, Victorino, and to a lesser extent, Pence haven’t been able to pick up the extra load.

          And this continue talk about bringing up Brown to give the team some kind of lift is laughable. The guy’s hitting around.270 in AAA with little power. Fact is that his current AAA OPS is .006 higher than is Juan Pierre’s . I’m more optimistic about Brown’s long-term prospects with the team than many commentators on this site but he’s not going to help in 2012.

          Now, if the Phillies are out of contention come July, then by all means, move Victorino and let Brown play CF for the rest of the season to see how he handles it.

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  8. Lets not forget that Utley and Howard were tremendous low ball hitters. No one fits that bill now except maybe Thome.
    Agreed Pierre batting second is a success this year but unlike other years he isn’t hitting LHP . Or is he not getting a chance? Cholly loves the rule not matter what.
    I caught flak for what I thought of the bench, What think you now?
    Nice job by Schim maybe he fits in better in long stints.

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    1. Actually, the bench has been relatively good. Phillies problem is that those bench players have been forced into becoming everyday players. If they were good enough to be everyday players, they wouldn’t be making bench $$$.

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    2. Best I’ve ever seen Schwim pitch-his fastball was topping out at 96! But all long stints include short stints, so if he can pitch long stints, he should also be able to pitch short ones. If he had stopped after 1 or 2 innings yesterday it would still have been a great job.

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  9. There are two main problems that I see with the Phillies. The first is that their bullpen, outside of Papelbon, is comprised of guys who are either inconsistent (Bastardo), terrible (Qualls) or inexperienced (Schwimmer, Savery, Diekman, etc). I don’t know why they sent down Valdes, but they need to get some experienced, healthy guys in the bullpen.

    The second main problem is that they’ve got guys like Pierre, Wigginton, Fontenot and Luna playing almost everyday due to injuries. These guys are solid bench and utility players, but their not everyday starters.

    What’s so sad about this entire season is that when healthy, this team should be almost running away with the division. They’ve been essentially gutted without Polanco, Howard, Utley and Halladay.

    If they can, they should trade Victorino for prospects or a solid bat, bring up Brown and possibly try to trade Blanton for something. Blanton started out really good at the beginning of the season, so if they eat some of his contract, maybe they can get something and then bring up Cloyd.

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    2. you forgot the biggest problem, which is ruben minaya jr. he has wreaked havoc on the roster he inherited from wade/gillick.

      the guy is lost. he needs to go. he should have been fired the day howard signed his ridiculous contract

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  10. yeah get rid of fat joe for another fat joe cloud, makes no sense to me. he will get eaten up cloud, in the majors, stick to these guys for now have a bad season, at trade deadline see what is out there for vic, polanco, lee, anyone but hamels sign hamels and build around him, and yes i would love to see dom brown up here, he would not make a difference over what we have,at least pierre has experience and can manufactor runs,

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      1. You gotta love posts from anonymous lol. C’mon man if you are going to post put a handle behind it so we can decide if we should take you seriously or not.

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            2. Not really that bad.

              Most things I’ve read project that Soler will take a least a couple of minor league seasons before he’s ready for the majors. Add in 3 seasons where he can be re-upped for ML minimum plus 3 arbitration seasons and he’s probably giving up 1 – FA season. Figure for the 1st 5 seasons (Minors and re-up seasons) he would make around $2m. That means he will be averaging $7m per season for the arbitration years and 1st FA season.

              If he becomes an immediate star, then he probably gives up a little back-end money. If he takes longer to develop, then he’s an expensive minor league player. both sides are taking a bit of a gamble.

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            3. theres an opt out that allows him to undergo the arbitration process according to KLaw. So basically its a lose lose situation for the cubs. Which is why im sure Soler signed this deal.

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            4. Absolutely. I’m surprised that’s all it took.

              Personally, I was expecting 4 years $20-$25 million.

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          2. If I were Rube, I easily would have matched that. Its chump change and worth the roll of the dice. For all we know, Rube did match it or come close and it was simply turned down.

            Oh well, he really would have helped out our system.

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            1. My understanding is that Solar’s agent asked teams to submit sealed bids and then they chose from the one they wanted. don’t think anyone got the chance to “match” what was offered.

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  12. Please never take me serious. my point is cloud isnt anything better than fat joe,at least blanton is a veteran pitcher who, if he has couple good starts ,can bring us something at the trade deadline,

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    1. I appreciate humor and satire as much as anybody here I just didn’t know it was your post Roccom and it took a bit for me to understand you were poking fun at Cloyd by calling him Cloud.

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    2. I will agree that someone out there might want Blanton if he seems like he’s figured it out in mid-late July. Right now, he’s looking real shaky.

      Do you think Blanton assumes everyone calls him “Fat Joe”. I’m sure he’s heard it yelled at him from the stands. I also imagine he’s heard a lot worse yelled from the stands. So mayeb “Fat Joe” is preferrable.

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    3. Even if Cloud evens out at a decent Blanton, there would be money saved. Isn’t time to find out instead of guessing.bad and boring

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      1. Not saving money on Blanton in 2012. Any trade that returns any type of decent prospect will require the Phillies to eat a good chunk of his remaining money.

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  13. Instead of people harping on Pierre (who is hitting over .300, not bad for a guy who barely made the team outta ST) and start complaining about how J-Roll is playing. I mean, he is barely hitting above what Galvis did, and had less RBIs at the time of his injury. Of course RAJ is gonna coddle him and keep on saying he’s “off to a slow start”, but maybe if he stopped trying to hit a homer every time, maybe he’d actually hit a little better.

    They probably sent Valdez down because they were carrying 4 lefties, which in this day of age is pretty rare. While Valdez has pitched really really well, I guess the Phlis wasnt to give the young guys a chance to prove themselves. Savery has pitched well, a lot better than I expected and Diekman has been decent as well.

    Just sucks seeing us in the cellar, I mean, hell, the Pirates are over 500 I think still and were in 2nd last I checked a few days ago.

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  15. 30 million for a unproven kid, seems like a lot to me, is he better than any of the first round draft choices?? lot of money for a prospect, yes the years are good if he makes it otherwise they mean nothing. you could get 24 international prospects for that kind off money most likely a million or so a piece, and the odds are you will hit on at least a couple over all that money for one kid,who is unproven/.

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  16. The one who could bring back full value in a trade is Lee. Supposedly, his contract requires that he name 6 (?) teams he would accept a trade to. Even if the Angels and Rangers are not on that list of 6, he would/could be tempted to go with either one of them because of the strong likelihood they go all the way to the World Series.

    He does have several years left on his (expensive) contract, so he would not be traded with the expectation of just a few months. Either one would likely pay dearly for him…resulting in good player(s) value in return including high prospects as well as 1-2 MLB players.

    His trade and salary going with him would free up the ability to re-sign Hamels, too.

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  18. Heard today an idea where if the Phils drop out of this, they could try to trade Pence and Lee – under control longer and potentially get a better haul since they aren’t rentals. Money freed up would go to Hamels and possibly a big bat in the OF. if Vic or Hamels go, you also get the draft picks, and go spend the money in free agency. Interesting concept

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  19. There are one hundred games left!!!! Ease up on fire sale talk!!! Have a little faith. However they need something…Utley is heading to clearwater. When he comes up he brings brown and cloyd with him. Do it all together to take some spotlight off young guys. Blanton goes to the farthest end of bullpen bench unless you can find a taker. Possibly trade victorino for a bullpen piece and a prospect. If not, either send mayberry down or trade pierre as his avg may entice a cintender

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    1. Also i know its far fetched even though i wish teams did it more but i would come to a handshake deal with hamels on his seven year deal then trade him to a contender (if we become sellers) for a package of prospects. Then sign the deal first day of free agency.

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        2. I mean how could you expect a top flight pitcher that gets traded away to come back here? That is so absurd why would you even bring it up in discussion. You must really be an idiot for even entertaining the……..Whats this that exact scenario happened with Lee……Nevermind!

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    2. Marlon Byrd was released, he hit 270 with the Red Sox in about 100 ABs, would replacing Mayberry with him make some sense

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      1. maybe but replacing Ty would . Lousy defense and a big game here and there doesn’t cut it. Trade him to whoever.

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        1. But there isn’t a positional match. I’m not the biggest Wiggington fan myself, but as a back up corner infielder he is tolerable. The problem is he is being forced to play full time, more or less. But Byrd won’t solve that problem.

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        2. Not only that, with the extended stint on the Disabled List by Laynce Nix , Wigginton has also been pressed into full-time duty as your designated whipping boy for the season.

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  20. Time to get realistic about this team. We have gotten used to superior baseball over the last several years with this team. But people should begin to see that RAJ was bolstering the team for the now, hoping to win the big prize and enhance the team’s attendance by mortgaging the future by trading best prospects away.

    Sooner than later the time passes and the decline begins with the aging that brings greater expectations of serious injuries along with a decline of physical tools needed to remain sharp in this uber MLB competition.

    All of their recent stars are quick-aged or disabled and it is unlikely any of them will regain their former effectiveness. The core has been on decline for the last several years whereas they were once the scourge of the league now they are close to the league’s joke. 2011’s 102 win season was meant to be the all-out to grab the big prize. In fact it is this current team’s last Hurrah!

    There seem no immediate solutions to their fix except by drafting well in the long term and trading in the short term. Lee can be traded to gain him another shot at the World series and would give a team more than one year of play under his current contract…..Texas and Angels could be suitors…and IMO he’d waive his no-trade clause to get that shot. Maybe they’d also take our $33 million re-signed J-Roll…Ha!

    RAJ gave it his and mngmt’s big shot and won it all in 2008. They could still be a legend for the 102 season.

    Now, it’s time to prepare for the future.

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  22. Yes with a younger team, I believe charlie is the wrong man for the job,might be tempted to give the job to sandberg,

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  23. An interesting tidbit from Callis’ last Ask BA column. A reader asked which recent draftees had a chance at immediately becoming their team’s best prospect. This came at the end of his response:

    There are five other 2012 draftees who could be in the discussion of their club’s top prospect: California high school lefthander Max Fried (Padres), Giolito (Nationals), North Carolina prep third baseman Corey Seager (Dodgers), Mississippi State righthander Chris Stratton (Giants) and California high school righty Shane Watson (Phillies).

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2012/2613550.html

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  24. I must say, despite some criticisms I have made of the organization, looking at some of the suggestions made here for “improving” the team makes me better appreciate the relative wisdom of management.

    OTOH, maybe we should floow the advice from the fans here – the team would lose 110 games and get a high draft pick!

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  25. Drabek felt “popping sensation” in his elbow. Tests tmrw. Farrell says he’s in no pain at the moment. THis was tweeted by Berthiaume!

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    1. Drabek “We did all the tests for it and I was strong, so that was some good news. I’m not too concerned.”

      Hope the kid is ok, hate to see him need TJS

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  26. TIme for a treatise.
    Juan Pierre- pretty much everything you could for ask for in a plink in a single, work a walk, high On Base Percentage type. Early in the season, and continuing on through various stages, when Juan was the only one hitting and getting on base much, very few Wins ensued.
    Now, if you had Ryan Howard doing as he has done, hitting Home Runs, Hitting for Power, or the Old Saw, Driving in Runs, even as mostly the only offense, the guarantee is many more Wins would have ensued.
    So much for the computation of WAR.
    Sort of de-bunks the theories of the Walk at any Price crowd.
    Also, for a different sort of Player, Galvis , they said was worth half a win a year. Looks like that half a win was burned up with the 1st game he missed. And it’s a gift that keeps on taking away.
    WAR- at least 2 different versions- shows not a science- guess-work.
    I read interview with the inventor thereof , he said to equate the theory to actual Wins and Losses you must add 30 to 40 Wins per team. Any other Field- back to the drawing Board .
    I declare this system to simply be a device to illustrate the stats the inventor believes to be superior to other stats. Which stats are more desirable and which stats are less desirable. Somehow ,it always turns out that the stats the inventor deems less desirable are the ones , he , himself, did not devise.

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    1. It’s interesting – there are real criticisms to WAR. It’s not perfect by any means. I don’t use it much myself because of weaknesses. But you don’t come within a country mile of the valid criticisms.

      I don’t really have the time or inclination to engage you on your three points, such as they are (the first two amount to “I evaluate these players differently than WAR, so WAR must be wrong;” the third fundamentally misunderstands what WAR means (in a nutshell, wins above replacement – and a team composed of replacement level players – basically AAA players – would win (roughly) 30 to 40 games. That’s not a “flaw” in the system, that’s how the system works)).

      But I do want to make a comment about Pierre. As a hitter, he has been decent. And WAR recognizes that. WAR penalizes him – justifiably – for poor defense. It still recognizes him as a decent player (this year). Some of the Pierre skeptics , myself included, don’t believe he can keep up his offensive performance, given his past career standards. Agree or disagree, that has nothing to do with WAR.

      That’s not my main point. My main point is that “pretty much everything you could for ask for in a plink in a single, work a walk, high On Base Percentage type” is demonstrably wrong, and you don’t need fancy stats to prove it. His OBP is a fine .359 – but that’s only 24th in the league among qualifying players. Don’t get me wrong, he’s been decent in that role. Solid, yes. But combine it with his other deficiencies … and he’s been just okay overall. Fine for a guy who wasn’t expected to start, but no more than that. Or to use your Howard comparison – would we be happy if he was a full time healthy player and only 24th in the league in HR? I think not.

      WAR doesn’t prove that; it reflects that.

      As for the “walk at all cost crowd,” it doesn’t exist. But the single biggest contribution the modern statistical revolution has made to baseball knowledge is the recognition that BB matter more than conventional wisdom allowed for. And every baseball franchise now knows that and acts on it. The only holdouts are people outside the game who don’t suffer a financial penalty for being wrong.

      Of it IS true that a guy like Pierre who makes a lot of contact, and is fast enough to get a lot of IF hits, can have a better than average (though not exceptional) OBP without a ton of walks. But that doesn’t contradict anything that sensible stat folks say about the importance of BB.

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      1. You could get raw wins (i.e., wins above zero as opposed to wins above replacement) easily enough. Add (roughly) 1 1/2 to 2 wins per full season to every full time position player. But there would be no point. A guy who is replacement level by definition has no value.* They are the kind of guy you can pick up off the waiver wire, or for a bag of baseballs to be named later.

        *Well, that’s the theory anyway – now we do indeed get into an area where the ideal doesn’t entirely reflect the real, but no time to get into that thicket right now. It’s a good approximation.

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      2. And you could say that that, among players STRICTLY like Pierre (i.e., little or no power) he has one of the higher OBP. But that sort of misses the point. There aren’t many such players, because they don’t have much value. There’s plenty of on base guys who ALSO have at least some power – and they tend to have BETTER OBP than Pierre (generally because, yes, they walk more, and that partly because pitchers have to pitch more carefully to them). They are the guys you want “setting the table.”

        Pierre has carved out a decent – but not exceptional – career as one of the rare players who can be a regular in the OF (or course he had more value when he was a center fielder) despite having almost zero power. He managed that feat by being an extremely good contact hitter and very fast. But teams don’t get to be successful by looking for Juan Pierre types. You don’t need that kind of player, and generally don’t want them.

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        1. Your both a little hard on the Pierre… His OBP to me (not saying it’s the “walks” part of it that’s great) is more then satisfactory for an everyday player. Yes he lacks power, but in light of the phillies MIA lead-off hitter, he fits the bill.

          I think marfis was right in saying that the phillies lack of power (and I’ll add bad luck) has led to a shortage of runs. Even given that, if you told me at the beginning of the year the phillies would have the 3rd best average in all of baseball, and ranked 12th in runs scored (this includes AL teams … as a reminder), especially lacking Utley and Howard. I would have expected a pretty good start to the year.

          The real suprise to me this year has been the poor pitching results (i highlight results). There is a significant disconnect right now between team WHIP and team ERA that is probably attributable to bad defense and bad luck. Polanco now being back and Utley coming back will help the defense atleast be “league average” IMO because it will limit the rest of the reserves from playing in addition to hopefully adding some offense.

          As to WAR, I don’t mind the offensive part of the stat, but the defensive “WAR” I find to be more psudo-science then I prefer. Not something I really use all the time but not complete crap when looking at oWAR only.

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          1. Really the issue with Pierre is simply this – just because his “job” is to get on base, it doesn’t mean you just look at his OBP. His “job” (as a hitter) is to help the team score runs – and the fact that he doesn’t have any power to speak of matters. It means that his overall value as a hitter is only a little above average (even maybe a tad below average for a corner OF) despite an above average OBP. (Nor do I much fault him for the lack of BB – though at the same time, obviously he would be more valuable if he walked more. But, as often correctly pointed out by PP in the past, a low BB rate is less of a concern for a player with a good contact rate such as Pierre.)

            But certainly you are correct that it’s silly to blame Pierre for the team’s problems. And I agree that the hitting has, if anything, been better than expected given the injuries. The pitching poblems are certainly the most disppointing aspect of the season, and, if one takes the absence of Howard and Utley as a given, the main reason for the team’s poor performance.

            As for defensive WAR, it is better than you allow, but I agree less raccurate than offensive WAR, and the main reason that I don’t use WAR that often. But the biggest problem with WAR is people who misuse it as a kind of precise accounting, which it isn’t and wasn’t meant to be.

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            1. Pretty sure we’re on the same page there. Cheers to that! (might this be the first time we’ve been in accord?)

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            2. Not sure our diffferences are as great as you may think – that may be largely my fault for my mode of argument. But I certainly don’t lump you in with the … umm, less knowledgeable commenters on this site, let’s say – or even with Marfis, who is quite knowledgeable in some respects but with large blind spots. Even when we do disagree.

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            3. Glad to have you back, Larry M. Seemed like you were MIA for a bit, but you’re always fun to read when you’re tilting at windmills, or windbags as the case may be.

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            4. Thanks. Part of Being MIA was being busy, part of it is realizing the futility of … well, tilting at windmills.

              Appearances to the contrary, I don’t by any means think I have all of the answers, but I am pretty sure I have at least some of the answers. I should ignore the … least informed posts, it’s not like any of those people are going to change their mind or even understand the issues (a couple of the anons in particular are egregiously ignorant). But I keep hoping that a guy like Marfis, obviously knowledgeable in some respects, would be a little more open minded about some of this stuff.

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  27. It’s crazy to see how injuries can completely change a team. This team has become almost unbearable to watch.

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  28. I was going make a post making the counter intuitive argument that Blanton was still better than people around here realized despite recent performances. I thought better of it, and now regret not posting it.

    Though this will probably jinx him to the point that he allows 6 runs next inning.

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  29. Too lazy to find the post, but I think it was one of the anons who wanted to release Thome a week ago and bring up Susdorf. And then .. hey, I’m sensing a pattern here – recent calls for Blanton to be released & replaced by Gload, and Rollins to be traded & replaced by Galvis. Blanton, it’s true, only has six good innings, but Rollins is .291/.316/.527 for June.

    Maybe what we need are more cries for minor league players to replace slumping vets. There seems to be a reverse jinx effect.

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  32. “Galvis said dad taught him ‘everything”
    Can we hire the guy. No one in this organization seems to know how to each fundamental?

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