Box Score Recap 6-10-2012

Box Score Recap

Kratz rhymes with Bats.  It all makes sense now…  Also, a big wow for Tim Kennelly.  On the prospect front, Brown, Asche and Franco all had 2 hits, and one of Franco’s was his sixth HR of the year.  JRod had a pretty nice line, Biddle not so much.

LV  REA  CLR  LKW  DSL & VSL Off

57 thoughts on “Box Score Recap 6-10-2012”

  1. Was able to catch most of the Clearwater game yesterday…they actually have a gun in Dunedin but I forgot to check it until Biddle’s last inning. Fastball was topping out at 89 in that frame, but I think he may have been throwing it a tick or two harder earlier in the start.

    I do have this to say: the heat in FL is just brutal…I don’t know how those GCL guys play noon games all summer, but bless their hearts, because even with a 5pm game in Dunedin last night, all the players’ unis were soaked by the second inning.

    Other tidbits from the game…Asche and Alonso hit the ball hard every time…Asche could have had a third hit when he laced one into RF but their guy made a nice shoestring catch at the last second. Alvarez made a very impressive throw home to nail a guy at the plate…unfortunately he is very overmatched with the bat.

    Kissock and Kinder are both side-armers – didn’t know this until I saw them live. Kinder certainly held his own for a guy skipping two levels (for the time being). His fastball was in the 86-88 range but his funky delivery helps add some deception there I think.

    The official scorer was giving hits to anything controversial…I think the Blue Jays had 3 which could have been various errors on Clearwater, and the Threshers had two gift hits which could have gone the other way.

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    1. Thanks for the firsthand report, Jslasher. Always appreciated. I remember Schwimer saying how tough it was to pitch in the FSL because of the heat.

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    2. Asche shook a nasty foul tip off his foot prior to lining out to RF. He seemed to barrel up the ball every at bat. Defensiviely, he bobbled a tough grounder and missed throwing the runner out by a step. Hewitt showed more plate discipline than I was expecting. Actually took a walk and had at least one other 3 ball count.

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    3. I always remember reading Jesse Biddle was throwing 92-93 coming out of H.S. with room for more. anybody know what going on there?

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      1. Word is Biddle was struggling with heat exhaustion from the beginning of the game on. Could barely see Rupp’s signals the whole game. He was 91-93 to start and 86-88 to finish.

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  2. Any chance Justin Friend could be helping the big club out right now? He’s been dominant the last 2 years. Would at least like to see him moved to AAA.

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  3. I think two of the biggest disappointments this season for me are Kyrell Hudson and Gauntlett Eldemire. They are mired in serious hitting slumps. It is ashame because from all accounts they have above average MLB ability as defenders. Especially Hudson.

    I was really rooting for Hudson to build on some positive steps he took last season as a hitter, and was hoping Eldemire would show something after spending most of his first 2 years with the Phillies being injured and approaching 24 at Lakewood. Hudson has regressed and Eldemire has never gotten started.

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    1. Neither Hudson not Eldemire have much of a track record of hitting with consistency, and Eldemire doesn’t have much of a track record period, so I have a hard time considering them disappointments. Disappointment, for me, is Brody Colvin pitching in the Clearwater bullpen instead of the Reading rotation.

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  4. At what point does Lakewood turn into a professional baseball team? They have zero hitting and on most days no pitching. It’s very sad to check their box scores daily to see them get beaten 13-1

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  5. It is partly a reflection of the 2009 and 2010 drafts. They seemed like weak drafts and weak spending efforts by the Phillies at the time, and so far the results on the ground hasn’t changed that much. The best player from those 2 drafts was traded away (Jon Singleton) and the best remaining is Biddle. But Biddle was the 1st round pick so that should be expected.

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  6. Made it out to the Clw game too. Biddle was hitting 93 in the first. In the first when he gave up 3 runs he didn’t look too bad, nothing was hit hard. In the 2nd and 3rd he seemed frustrated and started getting hit much harder. Rupp went to the mound a couple times and at the end of the 3rd- which was Biddle’s only scoreless inning- offered Biddle a fist bump. Biddle kept his head down and did not engage with Rupp at all.

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    2. I was wondering if Biddle was a bit BABIP unlucky, considering the fact that he had 6 Ks and only two walks. I might be frustrated too in that situation.

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  7. I’m trying to find the silver lining in Franco’s cloud. I guess we can say he is still just 19 or that he is second on the team with 6 HR’s and only 1 Behind Pointer who has 7. Lot’s of season left but this is the second time he has really struggled at this level.

    If we hadn’t ranked him so high in the top 30 I wouldn’t really care but I’m starting to see some things that really give me pause about his projectability.

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      1. Do you like that stat? I’m not a fan of it. For me its a geek stat that just creates illusions but hey I know Brian Kinney likes and the die hard SABR guys like it. My eye goes right to OPS then OBP then Avg. From there I’ll dig into walk and k Rate.

        And the end of the day if you are hitting the ball hard and taking your walks its going to show in your OBP and OPS.

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          2. or maybe his BABIP is low because he isnt hitting the ball hard!!!

            i havent seen one AB of Francos this year, and I dont know what his LD% is (which is key, and alot of people ignore it) but i know that a low BABIP (especially for someone in the low minors without a track record like a major leaguer has) does not necessarily mean he is unlucky. yes, if Ichiro has a .236 BABIP i would say he is unlucky. but how do i know a guy like maikel franco isnt just not hitting the ball hard?

            i think saying he is unlucky is just too simplistic (AND OPTIMISTIC)

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            2. We do have one measure, his isolated slugging. Franco’s ISO is a robust .144. Slightly above average for the Sally League.

              To me, to say a player is lucky/unlucky over-simplifies things. More accurately, I think batting average is just subject to wide variations from year to year. That we can be sure of. So in 215 at bats, there’s a wide variation we could see in his true batting average, maybe 40-50 points either way. Maybe more.

              The problem with evaluating someone like Franco is at 19 years old, he’s so far away that his skills can’t be measured with tremendous accuracy in the statistics at all, with the exception of a few indicators. Isolated Power, BB/SO ratio is about all I trust.

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            3. Your last sentence says it all and says it correctly. Really that’s how the issue should be framed – in theory, no need to get too deeply into the BABIP debate (though it does become more relevant for established major leaguers and prospects closer to the big leagues).

              But the tendency for people to weigh batting average too heavily, especially in prospect related discussions, is strong.

              As for Franco specifically, using those metrics presents a brighter picture, especially considering age level.* But his BB/K ratio is worse than last year – though not horrible by any means – so I think it is legitimate to slightly (only slightly) reduce our expectations. However, he is still one of the top 5 position prospects in the system, and he still has a very high ceiling.

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        2. I like the stat as a big picture stat, in this case a silver lining stat. It’s hard to argue that a guy isn’t dragged down by a lot of balls hit at someone when the stat is that low. His OBP and OPS are both dinged when someone isn’t getting balls finding holes. His BABIP last year in the NYPL was .329, kind of a high number but not wildly off the charts, and with a LD rate just over 20%. If he even splits the middle around .275-.280 BABIP, his stats would be much more reasonable, especially for a guy nearly two full years under the league average age. I agree with Jon below that his LD rate is not good, and so if you’re looking for more detail, that’s an added problem he’s having. Clearly he’s not squaring up the ball as often as he’d like.

          Maybe Jon or someone can quantify more what a LD rate like Franco’s generally means for BABIP. Is it enough to make someone be as far below “normal” as Franco is right now?

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          1. Rule of thumb is BABIP is about 12% + LD rate, so a 13% LD rate should mean about about a .250 BABIP. 18% LD rate is average.

            I think the LD number suggests he’s a little overmatched right now, but he’s still showing a lot of promise. His other peripherals are quite good.

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    2. Hitting is contageous. Everybody seems to participate. Not hitting is like quicksand. Everybody gets sucked under. A little while back, someone mentioned that Lakewood needs one of those lifer minor leaguers to come down and show these guys how to get it going. They could teach them how to fight your way out of a slump, how to do other things that can help the ball club (like fielding, joking and keeping things loose, working a count, stealing a base, if you’re lucky enough to reach base). They can help these guys remember that it’s a game… have fun. Good things happen when you’re having fun.

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    3. I mentioned this two weeks ago. I don’t see real reasons to project him so high. Some of this might be attributed to just being on a poor hitting team. But I need to see little more to start projecting him top 30 like many are doing.

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  8. Does anyone know a website with a list and decent information about our 2012 draft picks? I used to come here to get that stuff.

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  9. No more extra days off for Biddle. If it’s raining, their playing. I don’t care if it’s a freaking hurricane.

    I remember an article that said Kissock was working on a sidearm delivery. We’ll see if he can match Diekman.

    I’m keeping my eye on Stewart. He’s showing some stuff but I’d like to see less BBs. He’s won his last two starts (remember he plays in Lakewood) and his numbers were nearly identical in both starts.

    Kennelly’s numbers for the last two games are insane. 7 for 8 with 2 HRs and 4 runs scored. It coincides with a move to the leadoff spot. When I saw Tim leading off, I said, “WHAT?!?!?”. But it worked.

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  10. I didn’t know where else to put this, but here’s what I have heard so far on draftee signings. Perhaps we can have a new post to track draft news?

    Signed:
    Mitch Gueller (1S) – signed for slot of $940,200
    Zach Green (3) – signed “above slot”
    Christopher Serritella (4) – signed
    Andrew Pullin (5) – signed
    Hoby Milner (7) – signed for slot of $140,700
    Kevin Brady (10) – signed for slot of $125,000
    Jeb Stefan (22) – signed

    Shane Watson (1S) – sounds like he’s going to sign (would prefer $1.2m to studying)
    Dylan Cozens (2) – sounds like he is going to sign based on a couple of quotes in local papers
    Cameron Perkins (6) – sounded like he will sign based on an article in a local paper
    Zach Cooper (15) –
    sounded like he will sign based on an article in a local paper.
    Chris Nichols (31) -sounded like he will sign based on an article in a local paper.

    The only top ten guys I haven’t heard anything on are Ludy and Guth, though I saw people post elsewhere on the site that those guys have signed. If you have a link showing that they (or anyone else) have signed, please post it. Also Alec Rash sounds like he is considering it and it could take weeks to decide.

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      1. Thanks VOR, I guess I didn’t look hard enough at the picture. The above post was me, by the way.

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      1. socalscouts.com reported first and WLABA ‏@WLABAcademy

        Shane Watson is officially a Philadelphia Phillie and Ron Miller a Marlin…very proud of the former Yak players on their recent signings!

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    2. Whether or not there is an official press release, every comment he has made since the day he was drafted made it sound like he was going to sign. It’s possible they are still negotiating the final number, but I would be really shocked at this point if the Phils didn’t sign him.

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    1. Local newspapers that interview the draftees. “Nails” has done a great job of finding news articles – look in the thread for the post “Draft Day Three,” he has been putting them there.

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    2. BA has the signees on their draft database, although they are behind. They only show 2 signed. Philliesphans show 9 signed. There are rumors of several others having signed. The signed are Gueller, Serritella, Perkins, Milner, Brady, Cooper, Sisto, Stefan, Carman.

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  13. Phillies.com website still lists all this year’s draft choices as unsigned. This seems unlikely, so I guess that they are just running behind.

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  14. Early Crosscutter Roster:

    CA: Josh Ludy
    1B: Cris Serritella
    2B: Tyler Greene
    3B: Mitch Walding
    SS: Roman Quinn
    LF: Larry Greene
    CF: Jiandido Tromp
    RF: B Stassi
    DH: Cameron Perkins

    Not sure where Carmona fits in. Team seams heavy at DH and 3B, but light in OF. Outside of Hoby Milner, Kevin Brady and Miguel Nunez, hard to find 5 pitchers too.

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    1. Hey, it’s the talent missing from Lakewood! The last two pitchers are hopefully Watson and Gueller . . .

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      1. Gueller already said he was headed to GCL.
        The other two pitchers for Williamsport would have to come from Kevin Walter, Braden Shull (each never pitched professionally) Musser(Stunk it up in GCL) JD Thierren(limited experience) or demotions of Lino an/or Oviedo.

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    2. I think at least one among Tromp, the Greenes, Walding, and Quinn will be in GCL. Tyler Greene seems the only certainty for Williamsport.

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    3. I’m guessing Josh Warner will start out there, possibly Kevin Walter and Jonathan Musser too. Manzanillo got sent down from LKW, right?

      Also I think at least Jeb Stefan is headed there, possibly joined be recent draftees Zach Cooper, Kevin Brady, Jordon Guth, hoby Milner, etc.

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  15. Not picking on the poster, but how horrible is it that Anthony Hewitt drawing a walk and another 3-ball count is something to be happy about. I mean, he was only a FIRST ROUND PICK! Can we go ahead and call him one of the worst busts in Phillies history already? He’s 23, can’t (and won’t) get past A ball, and has a career OPS of .631, batting average of .221 and a strikeout to walk ratio of 490:55! This guy is dead weight taking up a roster space, even at high-A.

    Is the Phillies ridiculously awful ability to produce position players in the last 6-7 years due to terrible scouting or an ineptitude at coaching / developing players…or both? I mean, you almost have to TRY to suck this bad. Who is the last position player to come up through their system and thrive in the bigs? Michael Bourn? Even the prospects they’ve traded away have been pretty average in the minors, outside of D’Arnaud and Singleton.

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    1. The Phillies have drafted ten players higher than Hewitt in the history who didn’t make the majors. About 40% of the players taken 24th (Hewitt’s spot) don’t make the majors. Probably a bust, but not an epic failure.

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    2. Anthony Gose is widely regarded as a top 50 (or better) prospect, and Cosart isn’t far behind him.

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  16. When you are bottom five in spending in draft , and bottom in international players, this is what happens, what is nuts is they rather pay 24 million for blanton, instead of putting it into the draft to find, another hamels or utley or howard, makes no sense to me.

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  17. Phillies.com reports the following signings on their transactions page:

    1s – RHP Shane Watson (nice) (signing date 6/10)
    2 – OF Dylan Cozens (signing date 6/7)
    4 – 1B Chris Serritella (signing date 6/5)
    6 – 3B Cameron Perkins (signing date 6/7)
    7 – LHP Hoby Milner (signing date 6/7)
    9 – RHP Jordan Guth (signing date 6/8)
    10 – RHP Kevin Brady (signing date 6/9)
    13 – OF Steve Golden (signing date 6/7)
    14 – RHP Ricky Bielski (signing date 6/7)
    16 – RHP Nicholas Hanson (signing date 6/10)
    20 – RHP Matt Sisto (signing date 6/7)
    22 – RHP Jeb Stefan (signing date 6/7)
    23 – RHP Geoff Broussard (signing date 6/10)
    24 – C Chad Carman (signing date 6/10)

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