Box Score Recap 6-7-2012

Box Score Recap

Anyone who happens to see Colby Shreve, ask him if he knows what “inauspicious” means.  Also tell him to take a couple weeks before he looks at his ERA in AA.

LH  REA  CLR  LKW  DSL Postponed  VSL

51 thoughts on “Box Score Recap 6-7-2012”

  1. Collier with a 2 -4 and hit his 1st HR. Keep it up and he’ll allow us all to forget about Hewitt.
    Hollands is doing well since his move to A+. 6 IP, 3H, 1 ER and 2 Ks. He did surrender a HR but no one’s perfect.
    Morillo has not had a BB in his last 3 IP. I know… big whoop, right? But he has 26 BBs in 14 IP. So a couple of innings without a BB is huge. He might be finally getting his arm back after surgery.

    Shreve… what can I say? Welcome to AA. Nerves can get the better of you. Also Whatcott and Castro didn’t help his cause at all. Jordon gave up a bases loaded single with 2 outs and Castro threw the ball around to allow a 3rd run to score. But Colby put the guys there so he’ll have to take the responsibility.

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  2. How about a credit to Severino Gonzalez. 9 innings and 0 walks. How many on the organizational roster could do that. Looked up – for season- 35 IP, 1 BB, 38 K.
    Looked him up- From Panama – they got him at 6’1 153. Born in ’92, so maybe he might be somebody they can look to in future.

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    1. Marfis – I made a similar observation yesterday. Severino is putting up some incredible numbers in the VSL. Better than a K per inning and incredibly, only one BB in 35 Innings as you pointed out. His ERA is inflated (at 2.31) as his WHIP is in the .60 range (21 H and 1 BB in 35 Innings). Better yet, he’ll be 19 yrs old for another 3 months.

      I wonder what kind of velocity he has. I also wonder if there’s any chance we see him in the GCL this season

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      1. Yeah, just went back and looked at the 6/6 stuff from yesterday. I suppose they could bring him up. Looked at what I projected out from the XST guys (which might be way off) I figure 9 pitchers at GCL , so far. I figure if the weren’t going to keep the Latin American guys in the States they would have sent them back already. For Williamsport, I have 12 guys, including Jake Smith and Justin Long who I am not sure on. So maybe that’s only 10 guys there, giving the benefit of the doubt to pitchers with previous experience and guys from last season’s draft, plus the newly signed LHP , Blake Mascarello (!) So maybe 10 guys at WPT, and 9 in GCL. The teams should each carry at least 15 pitchers. So, looking at current draftees, going boilerplate , if they sign around 5 College age pitchers and around 6 HS draftees or less, maybe they could work in a pitcher from DSL or VSL. Or they could bounce some of the guys through XST and work somebody else in, who ,knows.

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      2. I would not get to excited as 4 of his 5 starts have come against the worst team in “professional baseball” which includes the minor leagues in Japan, Korea, and Europe. The Rays VSL team has a .225 winning percentage. His other start was against maybe the second worst team in “professional baseball”. Scouts have considered VSL play in the past to be equal to High School baseball in the United States but this year the league level of play is considered much worst.

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        1. I don’t think all that means too much. It is a 4 team league, so there is only 3 possible opponents. Tampa Rays poor won-loss record might be more on account of poor pitching, not that the won-loss record of a team they are facing indicates a Pitchers performance. Gonzalez performs against Tampa Rays offense, and though the team BA is worst in the league, they hit the most HR’s, and considering it is Tampa Bay, I would believe they have pretty good talent based on that alone. If you look at the VSL league stats, The VSL Rays pitchers have allowed by far the most HR’s ER’s BB’s and about everything else plus the percentages are mostly the least desirable also. So, I would say that is the big factor in the VSL Rays poor won-loss percentage. Not that that should be the judge of a pitchers performance. And Gonzalez’s lack of walks was what was noteworthy who says the batters were the cause of that.
          VSL has never been the level of USHS. These are professionals under contract and brought in by organizations that know what they are doing in that regard. I would say it is a half step below the Rookie Complex Leagues.

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        2. Not sure I would be that harsh on the VSL. The quality of play is probably a little lower than in the past, but the 4 organizations with teams there have generally put together competitive teams in the past. Maybe the Rays are down this year.

          Quality is probably in between GCL and High School. Think of a good U.S. summer league. Maybe not quite the Cape Cod league but just one notch below that. It is better than High School baseball. While it may not quite be on a par with the DSL, it is still close.

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      3. The caution on getting excited about him is that he is a little guy and also a little old for the league. Not too old, but on the older side of being a prospect in that league. He will be 20 in September. Last year he was also held back in relief where the Phillies push the better prospects into the rotation if they have good (which he did last year).

        His stats make me think he is most likely a guy who almost perfect control that gets lower level hitters out with that location. His strikeout rate is good, though he has given up 3 HR. To me he seems like he is more in the Elizardo Ramirez mold of polished guy taking advantage of inexperienced hitters. If he had great stuff he would probably be in GCL.

        None means he is not a prospect. We have no first hand observations of him. It just means that there are signs that he may not be a great prospect. Often the 6’6″ guy with lousy stats and a high walk rate is the better prospect in these leagues.

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        1. Andy – possibility of him playing in the GCL this year was one of my initial questions. He should get another two starts before the GCL starts play on June 18th. It will be interesting to see if he makes an appearance state-side if he continues his dominance.

          Regarding arguments towards his level of competition; I’d say that Severino is then doing exactly what he should, he’s dominating inferior competition which might prompt a closer look. Still premature perhaps, but I’ll be watching his next few starts more closely

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          1. It is very rare for a VSL to GCL promotion to happen. In most cases it is with a top prospect that they want to get 3 or 4 starts in before the GCL season starts. That is not the case with Gonzalez however. He is likely a minor prospect and there is no reason to rush him, especially when we should have a bunch of HS pitchers that will need innings too at GCL. Extreme control pitchers like Gonzalez can do well at lower levels and then generally have trouble moving up. His stats remind a little of Gabriel Arias – someone that will make a nice bullpen prospect but not someone you want to promote aggressively.

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  3. A nice, clean, 9 pitch save for Aumont. Even mixed in a strikeout. That’s the kind of outing I love to see for him.

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    1. Watched the game and Aumont looked sharp, his breaking ball was working for him.

      Susdorf with a big hit, was getting praise from phils scout Dave Hollins per the broadcast as he was at the game last night.

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    2. I follow almost all of Aumont’s outings on video. This was a very good one. It seems to me that somebody has impressed upon him the importance of not trying to throw too hard and trying to get ahead in the count by locating his fastball well and then try to put away hitters with breaking stuff that is so good the opposing batter must swing whether he thinks it is a strike or not. That’s pretty much what Aumont did last night. Even when he does not overthrow his FB is in the mid to upper 90s (Lehigh Valley gun is 2-3 MPH slow – Aumont was throwing between 95-99 last night – and he was not overexerting himself).

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  4. @Nick in my opinion Aumont just needs time. I know everyone wants him up especially with the current slop in the bullpen..(I am looking right at you Chad Qualls). But his stuff is nasty and just needs innings. He’ll be a September call up and have a chance for a roster spot in ST next year.

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    1. They need to give serious thought at this point about someone right handed, and I think that should be BJ.

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      1. Rosenberg is either ready or will be soon. Another hard thrower with upside. He will need to command his fastball but, aside from that, there’s a lot to recommend him.

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    1. These are the ones i’ve seen that are signed so far,

      3rd round- Zachary Green
      4th- Christopher Serritella
      5th- Andrew Pullin
      22nd- Jeb Stefan

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  8. Looks like Hanzawa is getting eaten by the BABIP monster. Oh well.

    Meanwhile his double-play partner is still holding on to his high BABIP (.365). However, his LD% is 19% this year compared to 13-14% in the past (caveat that LD% in the minors is not all that reliable). LD% is supposed to stabilize around now, so it is possible he could sustain a higher than usual BABIP (though probably not this high). He just turned 22 and plays up-the-middle…sounds like a top 10 prospect in the system to me…

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      1. I think his upside is as a starting 2B. Especially if he learns to put his speed to use.

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        1. His upside, sure. But a significant portion of people on this site are ready to anoint him the team’s next second baseman – and that is premature.

          He’s a guy who could grow into a starting major league role – if he continues to develop. Which is not just a matter of putting his speed to use, but either getting his BB rate back where it was in the lower minors, or turning some of those doubles into home runs, or some combination thereof.

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          1. Obviously he has to continue to develop, with only a half season in AA under his belt. But if he’s a legit .300 hitter, his walk rate is fine. It could be better but it won’t hold him back. If he becomes a threat with his speed, I’ll take the doubles and triples and not worry about the lack of home runs.

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            1. Okay … assume a .300 hitter (not his current .319, unlikely sustainable), some doubles/triples power but no HR power to speak of, his current BB rate, decent but not spectacular defense, no real base running value despite his speed. Basically what he is now statistically, but in the majors and a little air taken out of the BA, based as it is on likely unsustainable BABIP.

              Now, first of all, you and I (though apparently not a lot of other people here) know that he is a long way even from that. AA is not the majors. But would that make him a major league regular? Probably, but not a terribly exciting one. And I’m not convinced he will be even a .300 hitter.

              Now, all that said, and not to beat a dead horse, he’s young, he’s playing well, he has positives including a very good contact rate – he could develop. But look down thread, people around here are projecting him as the major league starting second base slot in 2013. Come on.

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            2. You said a lot worse about “that bum Galvis that would never be anything better than a Wilson Valdez type player” Lawrence. Your black and white world where nobody can ever improve is bordering on the ridiculous.

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            3. Never said anything like that about Galvis. I’ve always been one of the most positive people about him around here among the reality based community. It’s true I didn’t anticipate his leap forward in 2011, but who did? But even before that I acknowledged thaT he had a shot.

              And it’s pretty pathetic when your comment ignores everything in mine. I said explicitly that he could improve. What’s a joke around here are the brain dead losers like yourself who just assume dramatic improvement from the prospects they like & start penciling in guYs like Hernandez as Major league starters in 2013.

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            4. The joke is that you never take into account a guy’s age for the level he’s at, you purely look at statistics and assume past performance guarantees future performance, with limited to no possibility of developing.

              And to defend me and my friends the other brain dead losers like myself, these guys are in the MINOR LEAGUES, and they are trying to DEVELOP their game, and they are YOUNG. Sometimes they do have dramatic development, sometimes they never develop, but that’s why they are there. If you don’t want to listen to anyone’s opinion but your own, get off an opinion based site and go be Bill Conlin’s successor as a sportswriter.

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          2. He could grow into a starting MLB player in Philadelphia….but I think at this point all Charlie wants in Philly are some batters with ‘plate discipline’, whatever that means. I believe Hunter ‘Half of Six’ Pence is plucking Charlie’s last nerve.

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  9. Time to give Susdorf a shot in the majors. The guy can clearly hit as he’s done it at every level, and I love the fact that he puts the ball in play, which is something that the major eagle team needs. I realize it’s only 50 ABs at AAA, but he’s got to be better than Thome at this point. (And believe me, it pains me to even think that, let alone write it.)

    Or what about poor Mike Spidale? All this guy’s done is hit, year after year, and it seems like I’ve been watching him hit .300 forever. But I guess professional baseball people know a little more about this stuff that some guy perusing through the box scores.

    Anyway, you also really have to like what Cesar Hernandez is doing at Reading. He seems to have cut down on the strikeouts and he’s getting better as the year goes along, although at a glance, his BABIP looks like it’s probably high.

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  11. Watching Cesar Hernandez. They should soon move him up to LV to make him ready to compete for the 2nd base spot in ’13. It would be even better if he could walk more to raise his OBA but his contact rate is very good. I note that he is being more opportunities to to steal a base, a skill that needs further work because he does have speed ready to be used.

    Should Gillies return to play and pick up where he left off due to the concussion there is the possibility that he also could move up to LV. With Victorino’s free agency impending at this season’s end, CF may be be open for competition in ’13 and Gillies could get a shot there. I believe the Phils will not re-sign Vic leaving the position open.

    Time to look to the future since 3b, 2b, SS, LF, CF will need to be resolved for ’13.

    Further, with the team on a serious unrestrained dive, I’d suggest trading Lee who could gain a MLB position player and a few top prospects, at least. Time to move on.

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    1. I think you keep Lee and Halladay and build from there. Doc is far from finished. Hamels is the guy who teams would drool over at the trade deadline. He could fetch us a great return. Vic and particularly Pence can be moved as well (surprised I don’t hear Pence’s name more often). Of course, I’m pulling for a turn around this season but the prospect of prospects should they fall out of contention is worth dreaming about

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      1. Not sure if Hamels could fetch a great return in numbers, what with the new CBA. Teams trading for rental players and cannot sign them at the close of the season, receive no draft compensation if they walk away. So one Tier 1 prospect is what you can expect and perhaps an addtional Tier 2 prospect.

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        1. Hamels is unsignable for a sane contract. It’s not a question of wanting to trade him, but of needing to if we want to get anything in return.

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          1. What are you expecting to get back for him? You’ll get maybe 1 A prospect. Trying to get younger by trading Hamels defeats the purpose. Trade him and our rotation depth is shot for years to come.

            His contract’s not unreasonable at all when you consider the money coming off the books 2013 and on. (Halladay, Utley… $35 milion combined).

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            1. We’d get good value for Hamels in a trade; there should be little doubt in that. Teams will start dreaming of the playoffs in the next few months. More teams than usual given the added WC spot. This increases the number of teams with playoff aspirations and the number of teams looking to acquire players at the trade deadline, which at the very least should cancel if not supersede the effect of the acquiring team being unable to secure a draft pick. The pick has always been a secondary consideration anyway.

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            2. There are two seperate issues here. One is whether the Phillies will sign him, and the answer there is 95% no, and I’m being optimistic if anything. My guess is that that is mainly a factor of Hamels wanting to test the FA waters; likely nothing short of an insane above market contract will stop him from doing that.

              The second question – should the Phillies sign him, assuming that it would take AT LEAST 6 years at well over 20 million per year. IMO the answer is no, given the inherent fragile nature of starting pitchers. But even if you disagree, it’s kind of irrelevant. He’s not getting signed during the season, and he’s gone if he hits FA. Clearly the Phillies won’t meet his demands. So since this season is going nowhere (I wouldn’t have said that before the Halladay injury, but that’s clearly true now), why not get a good prospect or two for him?

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            3. Couldn’t agree more Larry. The Phillies ability to resign Hamels hinged on the level interest by other teams. And Hamels figures to be one of the most sought after FA pitchers in years. There’s plenty of suitors with resources who will be competing to acquire his services. Unless the Phillies offer a contract approaching closer to 25mil per, then I think it’s a foregone conclusion that he’ll be pitching elsewhere next season.

              As far as his trade value, forget the 3-month rental argument. Hamels is the type of pitcher who can put a team over the top. He has a WS MVP on his resume. If, and that’s a big if right now, the FO is compelled to trade him, I expect the return to be fruitful

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            4. And I’m not denying that losing him makes 2013 even more problematic. But that’s the danger of an old team with a bunch of expensive contracts. I’ve said elsewhere what the team needs to compete in 2013, and frankly it’s a long shot (a healthy Utley would help a LOT, but may be unrealistic). So do you sign Hamels, slightly increase your shot at a title in 2013, at the cost of another long, expensive contract which probably will end up hurting the team at some point (because how many starting pitchers stay healthy and effective over the course of a 6 or 7 year contract?)

              Again, a moot point; if the team was going to meet his demands, he would have been signed by now.

              IMO the best option at this point might be to go into full fledged rebuilding mode, but I understand why the organization is unlikely to go that route.

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  12. Not that it means too much, but Brown (#8) and Cloyd (#12) checked in on Kevin Goldsteins weekly impact fantasy prospects to be on the look out for. Just affirming that Brown is still 20/20 potential and is major league ready and that Cloyd even without the stuff hang in the back of a major league rotation especially if the Phillies continue the way they are going. (Blanton for box of donuts and bring Cloyd up?)

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    1. JoeB would be pretty ticked if you got a box of donuts and he had to leave before they arrived. I think Elarton is probably next in line. He’s been fairly consistent and he’s got experience. Ask me again if it’s mid July and Cloyd’s still cruising and the Phils are 8 back of the wild card and trade off someone from the rotation. And BTW, there’s no way they would or should trade Cliff Lee, IMO. For who and why?

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    2. Kinda shocked they optioned Valdes over Schwimer. Schwimer has given them zero reasons to keep him on the 25 man regardless of having a RHP over a LHP. Valdes has at least been pretty effective as a garbage time pitcher.

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