Box Score Recap 6-5-2012

Box Score Recap

Pretty good night for starting pitchers overall.  Also, Dom Brown with 4 hits, including two HR, plus an outfield assist.  And someone on Twitter said he made a real nice catch in LF, which I cannot confirm.

LV  REA  CLR  LKW  DSL Postponed or Not Reported  VSL 1  VSL 2

86 thoughts on “Box Score Recap 6-5-2012”

  1. Wow, is it nice to see that stat line next to Brown’s name or what? I think it’s becoming increasingly possible that he gets called up soon.

    Like

  3. The Phillies need a spark so bad right now. If Brown continues his upward trend, he should be call up soon.

    Like

  4. I would think it would be best to bring Brown up when they bring up Utley or Howard (Utley will be ready first). Make one shift to the line up and make the attention on the returning guy and not on Brown

    Like

    1. I agree. Plus, Brown has been injured and scuffling for much of the season. Let’s see if he can get on a real roll for a month or so and maybe build some confidence before thinking about calling him up.

      Like

  6. While I would love to see Brown called up, the problem is they are getting decent enough production from Pierre in left that I don’t see Charlie replacing the veteran with the new guy. Unfortunately Manuel has developed a trend with these sorts of things.

    Like

    1. They have enough pee-shooters in the lineup with Rollins Polanco and Galvis. While Pierre has played well they need someone that can get some extra base hits to drive in some guys.

      Like

  7. I wonder when Susdorf gets his chance, even if it’s just as a platoon guy or a LH off the bench. All he’s done is hit. He hit in college, and he’s hit at every level. I remember being excited when they drafted him, and though they’ve moved him slowly, I still consider him a prospect.

    Like

    1. I recall an interview last year where someone in the organization praised him. Pretty sure it was Chuck Lamar, and he’s gone. Doesn’t mean he won’t get a shot or Jordan or Amaro or others don’t like him. Just one less fan in the FO.

      Like

    2. Susdorf is batting .384 at AAA. He’s hit in 8 of 9 and the most interesting stat is he has 10 BBs and only 2 Ks. But he only has 15 games or so. Let’s let the AAA pitchers adjust to him and then we’ll know if his hit tool is as good as most of us think it is. I wish he could field and run like Tyrell Hudson. That would be a player!!! Victorino would be playing somewhere else right now.

      Like

    3. The only problem with Susdorf is that a lot of his success has been BABIP-driven. Not that that can’t continue at the ML-level, but it does put a damper on things.

      His BB% has never really gone above 10% and his ISO has rarely gotten much above .130. His career AA line is .307 / .376 / .451…good, but doesn’t exactly scream major-leaguer.

      Like

      2. Two of Friend’s outs were made on the basepaths. One caught stealing and one out at home after a single to the outfield.

        The run scored in the 2nd inning.

        Like

        1. JRod gave up a HR in the 2nd inning. Friend’s line was unbelievably weird: S, K, CS, S, BB, S (OF assit by Tripp at home).

          Speaking of weird: Valle is hitting .324 in his last 10 games with 1 2b, 1 3b, 3 HRs and 9 RBIs. That’;s not weird. His OBP is less than his BA (.316) over that stretch. He has no BBs or HBPs but he’s had some Sac Flys. I believe Cesar Hernandez has something similar.

          Someone cooled off Collier yesterday but Castro continues to hit (.394/.417/.667 in his last 10 games).

          I see Ramirez has moved up and pitched fine in his 1st outing.

          Like

          1. Valle’s OBP cannot be lower than his batting average, that’s impossible. On-base percentage will always be equal to or greater than your batting average. If you go 1 for 10, you’re OBP is .10. it can only go up if you get on base other ways (walk). how can it go down below batting average?

            Like

            1. I think Bellman’s aware of that – he’s pointing out a statistical mistake. On 5/30, Valle went had a single in 3 ABs with a SF. His stats are reading .333 avg and .250 obp for the day.

              Like

            2. It is not impossible – sacrifice flies are excluded from the denominator in calculating AVG but are included in OBP. As a simple example, if you have a game where you get 2 hits, 1 K, 0 BB or HBP, and 1 SF, your average will be .667 (2/3) and your OBP will be .500 (2 + 0 + 0)/(3 + 0 + 0 + 1)

              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On-base_percentage

              Like

            3. Thanks – I didn’t know that. Denominator is plate appearances, not ABs. I guess that makes sense to be able to count walks and hbps in the numerator.

              Like

            4. what about sac fly or sac bunt. Your average would stay the same..but your obp would go down because it still counts as a plate appearance

              Like

  10. I don’t think you can bring Domonic up. Too much pressure on him to get off to a hot start once he’s called up.

    Just let him play the season out and he’ll be ready next year. Juan’s been great at the top of the line up. Nix, Utley, and Howard will be back by the deadline.

    Like

    1. Disagree, we can’t afford to have him mashing in the minors. In case you didn’t notice, our offense needs a lift.

      Like

    2. So you don’t think there will be pressure on him next year?

      Stop burying the kid and play, the team needs youth and needs some guys who can hit for power & take pitches.

      Like

    3. I wouldn’t call an empty average and negative value in the OF “great” but he’s been better than others in the lineup at least. His OBP is appreciated no matter how BABIP-influenced it is.

      Like

    4. I don’t think it’s about pressure, it’s about being ready. Dom has only just started hitting well again in AAA. Let’s give him a little more time to show he can keep it up.

      I think the all-star break would be a good target.

      Like

    5. This. Literally 1 week ago, the guy was an after thought. Never overreact when dealing with prospects. 4 HRs in a week is great, but you have to be patient. the Phillies have said they want Browns next callup to be his last. If he gets called up and struggles for a month, he’s going to be right back on the yo-yo. The earliest I would call him up is the all-star break, even if he continues his torrid stretch.

      Like

  11. Brown is hitting but isn’t he still a butcher in left field? I don’t see them calling him up while he’s still learning the position.

    Like

    1. Another good point, his bat wasn’t the reason he got sent down. He needs to continue to improve his defense.

      Like

  12. Brown will be Brown. Let the guy play without all the hype and failure discussion. Could he help the Phils? Absolutely. He’d be a stiff bat in a noodle lineup. But the team is one more injury from buying a hospital. Until someone gets hot in the NL East and starts running away, Brown will be in LHV getting ready for next year.

    Like

  13. Does anyone see a midseason trade happening with Victorino being the headline player? He is the most movable asset, with Brown, Mayberry and to a degree Pierre able to fill in at CF until years end. With Abreu in town it makes me think that a shake up is needed because the Phils don’t seem to be able to play there way out of mediocrity. Unless of course having Utley and Howard (and possibly Brown) back in July would provide that spark.

    Like

    1. Phillies are still only 3.5 games out of the Wild Card. Can we stop with the deadline selling talk?

      Like

      2. I don’t think trading Victorino is raising white flag. I think it’s a shrewd business decision. 3.5 out and awaiting the return of howard, halladay, and utley. that’s almost like being a buyer at the deadline. and if they let victorino walk after season, why not get something for him now? with those guys back, what he brings to the offense is replaceable

        Like

      3. I agree that they are only 3.5 out of the Wild Card. I don’t think trading Victorino in July is giving up/being a seller. In the same way that offloading a good player like Abreu did for the psyche of the team, I think a jolt like that is needed. With Vic, you have a movable asset and a contingency plan already in place for the short term (Pierre/Mayberry with Uts possibly going out to left) and the long term (Brown?). Althought we can debate whether or not Hamels or Pence is a more attractive option for other teams, their performance would not be easily replicated by someone already on the team or in the high minors.

        Like

    2. I thought they shouldn’t traded Victorino last year. It’s not that I don’t like the guy, but he’s the most trade-able asset and I don’t think they should re-sign him next year. I think someone else (maybe Brown) could handle CF. I think they should do this regardless of where they stand in the division/wild card. Vic is hitting .248. If they win a world series, it’ll be on the strength of their pitching. I don’t think the phillies can afford to be so tunnel visioned as to just look at this year. Right now it’s about keeping the window open. If this was the last year of their core, then you go all out. But it’s not. Trade Vic and use the money this offseason for hamels. Get something for Vic instead of just letting him walk. Go younger in the outfield and as the team ages slowly replace a part here and there. Plus, .248 with a low OBP and limited power is replaceable.

      Like

    3. Actually Hunter Pence would be the most movable asset. With a year left on his contract teams would be more willing to part with top prospects for a guy that they still control for another year.

      NOT saying we should trade either I was just stating Pence is probably more movable.

      Like

      1. Well, Hamels would be, even though he’d be a free agent after this season, but I guess I meant that we can trade Victorino without crippling the rest of our team

        Like

      2. We are a LONG way from being sellers. With a possible return of our injured players, all we need to do is make it to the dance, see Cardinals. On the flip side, sometimes a team has to know how to lose. Trading a Victorino or Pence, and maybe Hamels, and playing Brown and using some of our young relievers in key roles, maybe try Utley in LF a little, could be a great investment for 2013.

        Like

  14. We need to think long-term here guys. Let Brown succeed big time (and it’s only been about a week or two where he’s been playing well) this year at AAA, let him play in September, and then plan for next year.

    Like

    1. I see Brown as an August call-up if he continues to play well. They will want to give him every chance to succeed and, if they do well enough, play on a postseason roster. But gosh, he’s only been hot for 10 games, let’s see him do well for a month or two before we start making decisions about when he should be called up.

      Like

      1. By the way, I’ve gone back and seen the game tape and both of Brown’s home runs were absolute bombs. The last one was especially long and, in response to the “Brown is mentally weak” crowd, was hit after the Braves pitcher called out the prior batter and both teams were steaming mad. Oh yeah, Brown also threw out a runner at second on a very nice throw. Welcome back, Dominator.

        Like

        1. Rosenberg also looked great again – he is definitely a major league pitcher at this point. I like Stutes, but Rosenberg has better stuff.

          Like

          1. Well but while not meant this way, the comment can be taken as a parody of all of the absurd comments arguing that he isn’t mentally tough, or doesn’t work hard enough, or whatever other crap is made up by loony Brown haters. That stuff is even less evidence based than catch’s comment.

            I don’t advocate him being called up now, but another strong few weeks and I think you bring him up and plug him in LF every day for the rest of the season. And most likely for the next 5 to 10 years.

            Like

          2. The point is that the whole argument that he was not mentally tough is ridiculous. There was no basis for saying that based on everything we know about Dom Brown.

            Like

  15. when people mention mayberry as a starter, my blood press goes through the roof, he is at best a fifth outfielder on a bad team.

    Like

      1. At points in the season some might say he had the least impressive offensive stats of any Phillie with significant playing time. Even now he is right around that. Move that bat to the bench, and he can be a dangerous bat off the bench. But, if he is that , then he can also be an above average OF’er and OK at 1B, and that is more

        Like

          1. Would be a top notch 4th or 5th OF. He runs the bases well, plays great DF, can play 4 different positions, can hit a bomb or two off the bench against a LHP. If used properly, he could be a great bench guy.

            Like

  16. You are an idiot if you want to bring up Dom right now.. He shouldnt be touched until July. More so because if hes called up he’ll only play a few times a week with the idiot manager the Phils have.

    Like

  17. VSL- Gustavo Martinez – after going 2 for 4 in first game they have the average at .317. Then in the second game he goes 1 for 2 and the average drops to .298. It might shake the faith that all the information put out on box scores are absolutely accurate.

    Like

    2. And come to think of it, I did. I called the one on top #1, and the one on bottom #2, but that’s chronologically incorrect. The one on the bottom of MILB.com is the one that finished first. My bad.

      Like

  18. Just some random thoughts:

    Asche is probably past the “small sample size” area and now into “let’s promote him and see if he’s for year” territory. He’s the clear winner of th Michael Taylor Award for 2012. I just wish he were slugging the ball a bit better. Does anyone at least know what his LD% is?

    Justin Friend’s line reminds me of the old riddle, “How can a team record six singles in their half of an inning yet not score a run?”

    Dugan has certainly played himself back onto the prospect radar. I wonder if they let him go the full season at Lakewood, or if they challenge him in a month or so and send him to Clearwater. Sadly, he’s one of the few offensive bright spots on that team

    – Jeff

    Like

    1. Even if Asche is for real I wouldn’t be in a rush to promote him. He already was double jumped coming into this year.

      Like

      1. Good point Alan, and since he struggled at Williamsport last year, it might be more beneficial to give him a full year to get his swing back

        Like

      2. I agree with you here, he’s been double jumped, I have no problem starting him 10-12 games (a taste) in reading at the end of the year, but that’s about it.

        Like

    2. He is actually experiencing a significant improvement in contact compared to last year… Take a look below:

      Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff PA LD% GB% OFB% IFB% GB/FB Bunt% U%
      2011 21.00 Williamsport NYP A- PHI 268 16.8% 34.6% 29.3% 15.7% 0.77 0.5% 3.1%
      2012 22.00 Clearwater FSL A+ PHI 215 21.7% 37.2% 34.4% 6.1% 0.92 0.0% 0.6%

      He’s hitting 30% more line drives this year compared to last year. What’s also really huge is his lack of infield fly balls, he’s hitting 61% less of them this year. Those two stats justify much of the change from last year. The bottom line is he’s hitting the ball with more authority.

      Like

      1. I agree that the improved contact rate is statistically significant and perhaps the most encouraging aspect of his play.

        The BA is still very much subject to sample size concerns, and is certainly going to come somewhat back to earth, even if the increased line drive rate is sustained. Of course if “back to earth” means .315 or thereabouts – certainly plausible given the contact rates and line drive rates – that’s still pretty encouraging. One would hope that his BB rate increases when more of his balls in play end up being outs instead of hits.

        He’s a good prospect, who will benefit from a full year in A+.

        Like

        1. I’m with you on his BA, it’s going to come down. But nothing would make me happier then having him be a .300 hitter with some power. If I’m the phillies, his offseason conditioning program includes lots of power lifting. If he can be a .310/.360/.470 player, that’s got real value at 3B. (btw, his range factor last year at 2B was solid, I’m not sure him at 3B is where he has the most value).

          And i’m quite happy with both the improvement in quality of contact and over all contact rates.

          Like

        2. About a week ago (meaning these numbers are slightly outdated), I regressed Asche’s BABIP to .300, and his BA came out to be about .270. Since he’s only played in about 120 games, its tough to get a good sense of his batted ball profiles, but still, I don’t think a .300 BABIP is that unreasonable of an assumption. A player with a .270 BA and a roughly .300 OBP with an ISO of .113 doesn’t sound like a guy in need of a callup.

          Like

          1. I’m really on two minds on this (the BA projections, not the call up). The question is, how do we make projections with inadequate data? On the one hand, I suppose the conservative approach with a player is to assume that a player is average, as you do (a .300 BABIP is about average). On the other hand, I think we have some reason to believe that his “real” BABIP is going to be above average, given his performance so far when double jumped to a pitcher’s league. Especially given those line drive rates (and more speed that I realized (8 SB with only 2 CS), which also impacts BABIP in terms of IF hits). Also consider that, in a more hitter friendly environment and with more development time his HR rate will go up.

            Plugging in a .330 BABIP and a slightly higher HR rate gets his BA over .300. Still not 350 or even .315, but not bad. Maybe a .330 BABIP is optimistic, but the HR rate I project may be a little pessimistic in the long run.

            He really does need to show more power (though he has shown some doubles power; a .112 ISO in that league is not bad) and a higher BB rate. But if he can stick at 3B (or even 2B), he could end up being a heck of a player. As with almost any prospect, the beta is high. He could also flame out.

            Like

      2. Thanks Supra. The infield fly stat really jumped out at me – he was popping up quite a bit last year

        Like

    3. Most rosters below AAA remain fairly consistent all year. Hitters and pitchers both will make adjustments and have to counter the adjustments made. This is a great learning process for prospects to go through. A guy like Asche will get pitched differently over time in the same league and he will have to adjust. Let him, and others, experience that, and a call up very late in the season for a small taste at the next level is ideal.

      Like

  19. Obviously I’m rooting for Dugan to succeed. But this season is the first time I have seen anything from him to make me notice him. Even now he numbers aren’t stellar for A ball. At some point I think we need to see either his power numbers go up or his average goes up to enter real prospect territory. Because from all reports I have seen his defense is merely average as an OF.

    Like

  20. I may have missed this, but can anyone give me a status update on Gillies? Is he not playing because of the injury he suffered in the collision he had?

    Like

  23. Our needs at 3b requires that we move this college draftee up as soon as possible. See how the next 20 games go for him at Clwtr and if his stats continue move him up to Reading. Aside from his hitting, he is a 3rd baseman with a good glove, plenty of arm, and has some speed on the bases. His double jump has been very successful and should not block his move upward when his play justifies the move, as here.

    That is a superior package with HR power to come that he can develop over winter with weight training as has been suggested above.

    Biddle also could be moved up in another 2 months so as to finish at Reading.

    Nothing wrong with challenging players who seem to be coming on very well.

    Given his superior play before his concussion it’s a shame that Gillies has had to visit the DL. Hopefully he can come back soon and continue his climb toward Phil’s CF position in time to replace Vic in/about ’13.

    Getting some of these “youngsters” up to the big club ASAP is a priority for keeping the team going forward. Fresh faces with promising results is the key…so long as they appear prepared, as here.

    Like

  24. Victorino has been a serious liability to this team. I don’t know what the stat is, but it seems that he’s almost an automatic out when he steps up with RISP and if they want to keep Hamels, they’ll probably be getting rid of him anyways next year.

    If Brown keeps hitting like he is now, you’ve got to trade Victorino, bring up Brown and sign Hamels long-term.

    I just wonder how much they can get out of Victorino if they trade him. It seems like there are a few outfielders that could be on the market by the deadline i.e. Willingham and Quentin, and that might lower the demand for Victorino.

    Like

    1. Okay … Victorino has, like many Phillies, been a little disappointing with the bat. But he’s been fine defensively & on the bases, and overall the team’s second or third best position player, not that that’s saying much. He has not been a liability.

      As for his performance with RISP, his numbers are actually quite good compared to his overall performance.

      Hamels is gone, like it or not. His demands (mainly in terms of years) are more than the Phillies are willing to pay. As much as it pains me to say this – Hamels is great – they may well be right about this. It would take 6 years to sign him, and I am inclined to say that no pitcher should ever be given a 6 year contract. But even if I’m wrong, it is apparent at this point that thats how the Phillies see it. Victorino has zero to do with that, as I am sure the hold up is the years, not the average annual salary.

      Like

      1. Perhaps his agent put out there the seven years as a basis for a negotiation tool.
        Question is six years would be highly risky for a pitcher, but the best pitchers are getting around that length these days. So you are caught in the middle.

        Like

    2. Chad, I agree with you that Shane Victorino has been a major disappointment this year and he is not worth what he is asking for in negotiations. He either is trying too hard or not payng attention to details. I like Shane but it is time to go as one area of depth for the Phillies is the outfield.

      Like

Comments are closed.