Wilson Garcia and Francisco Herrera continue to hit and with some power. Both are a little old to be great prospects, but not really too old. Velis looks like someone who should move pretty quickly given his polish at a young age. I don’t want to put too much stock in the results though, as any lefty with decent stuff and polish is going to have these results in the VSL.
Garcia excites me because he’s listed as a catcher. He plays other positions too. But if he’s a catcher and can hit and hit for power, I’d like to see his state-side.
Dom Brown walked, didn’t strike out, and (apparently- I didn’t actually see the game) played well in the OF. Doesn’t sound like much, but considering the two things hurting him right now are plate discipline and defense, I’ll take more nights like that.
Nice to see Collier return. Always thought he had potential but injuries really derailed his career early on.
Small sample size and against questionable competition but Sergio Velis is a nice surprise.
Any insight into why Steven Malcolm missed the entire year last year? Is he at risk of being released altogether once draft picks sign? What does Matt Campbell throw? His numbers are good and I like his SEC pedigree.
Malcolm was sent home last April due to alcohol related violations of team rules. See http://www.phoulballz.com/2011/04/phils-prospect-malcolm-sent-home-for.html. A lost year on an 8th round draft pick in 2010 who allegedly signed for 125K. Came back this year with a “fresh start” (probably due to the investment that they made to sign him), but word is that he is immature and continues with similar antics. I expect that based on the perceived behavioral issues and his lackluster performance in LKWD that his future isn’t long with the organization.
Sent home for alcohol? If he had any talent to begin with it would have been immaterial. If the phillies had a 23 year old babe ruth today I’m pretty sure they wouldn’t cut him for violating the teams alcohol or pandering policy. Just sayin’…
I wasn’t bashing you btw, sorry if it came off as rude. I was just poking fun of the situation. But good lord, could you imagine how great it would be if the phillies had a 23 year old babe ruth right now? Oye
Crying a little harder. This has been the most disappointing phillies year since 2007… boy we got spoiled, but first (in all of MLB) to worst (in division) is hard to swallow.
It doesn’t say he was sent home for alcohol. It says he was sent home for Misconduct… and violation of team rules related to alcohol consumption. He may have been sent home for anything ranging from having one drink, to missing curfew, to coming to work ‘hung-over’, to getting in bar fights. The point is not that he got sent home for having a drink, it’s that he broke/ignored team rules that were no doubt spelled out to him.
Cody Asche needs to be moved up. Not much else to prove at Clearwater as he is cruising with .356 avg. Jeremy Barnes is wasting in Clearwater at 3B hitting .208.
They might be waiting for him to hit for power but, yes, the man is a hitting metronome. Nothing about his performance last summer suggested he could skip a level and hit like this. It’s very impressive.
Right. It’s still early in the season and he won’t turn 22 until the end of June. And I’d like to see his walk rate increase to where it was last season as it’s quite low right now in spite of his batting average. Lots to like here though but a bad stretch can take him below .300 in no time. Another 100abs or so before I start hoping for a promotion
I was surprised that Hulett got promoted to LHV and Asche did not get the bump to Reading to replace him. That would have been a logical move in my mind. Perhaps there is something that Asche is not doing or needs to improve that we cannot observe from a box score?
He has already been double jumped. If he started at Lakewood he may be at Clearwater by now but this organization is not the type to move a player 3 levels in less than half a season.
Asche is only 44 games removed from a less than successful debut at Williamsport. He was double jumped to A+. Let’s let him go through a couple of pitching cycles to see if A+ pitchers adjust and then how he adjusts. He’s not taking over for Polanco next season so let him aclimate. If he heads into mid-July and he’s still on a tear, then pop him up to Reading. He’s only 21 (22 on June 30). It’s not like he’s already long in the tooth. This is also his 1st year playing 3rd base prossionally. If you want more power, Clearwater may not be the park to pump up that stat. He’s hitting 2B and 3B at a nice clip. If you want the opposite side of the power story then he’s got a .486 slugging % and that’s 5th or 6th in the league.
I like to look at ISO because it takes out the singles. Asche’s stands at .130 right now. Improved from earlier in the season but not great, though he is in a pitcher’s environment and he’s almost certainly still adjusting to the higher level of competition. I agree with Steve that another 100 time to the plate and still hitting over even .325 and I’d say he’ll move up.
Agreed. I just don’t understand why so many call for guys to get promoted the moment they show any signs of success at their current level. It will do Asche no harm to get a few hundred at-bats at Clearwater to see if he can sustain his current pace.
Whether he gets to Reading in June, August, or at the start of 2013 will have little impact on his long-term progression.
True, unless he gets rushed too fast – that could impact him long-term. I understand the immediate gratification desired by many – it’s our culture. But we just need to chill, enjoy his current success and anticipate.
In this case it kinda makes sense because once Asche moves up, Martinez will likely move up too, and consequently no longer have to play out of position.
Or not! I was looking at the wrong line. His BABIP the year he hit .406 was ‘only’ .378. He certainly did benefit from some luck that year, but it wasn’t that far away from his career norms. It was a combination of a really good year, and a decent amount of luck.
Could somebody help me with something of a statistical nature? How is it possible that Ted Williams could hit .406 and only have a BABIP of .378? In order to have a batting average of .406 on ALL of his at bats, wouldn’t his BABIP, which is a subset of all of his at bats, have to be higher than .406? In other words, if you had ten at bats, and hit .400, but you struck out twice during those ten at bats, your batting average on balls in play would have to be at least .500 (4/8 hits on balls put play). Am I missing something? Perhaps I do not understand the statistic. Could someone who understands the stat let me know?
That is an inane comment on a couple of different levels, but the interesting thing about it is that, looking William’s career as a whole, and even that season specifically, just further supports those of us who evaluate players properly by looking at the important underlying statistics.
On a career basis, Williams had a good but by no means remarkable BABIP of .328 – above average but perfectly consitent with him being a solid line drive hitter. His career average of .344 was more a prduct of the combined facts that he hit a lot of HR and rarely struck out. On a career basis, he had almost as many HRs as Ks.
His BABIP in the year he hit .406 was higher – .378 – not nearly as high as (say) Asche’s current unsustainable BABIP, and not sustainable even by Williams over a career. But even then, he would not have hit nowhere near .400 but for the fact that, in 356 AB he hit 37 HR and only 27 strike outs. That’s not a typo, 10 more HRs than Ks.
As for Asche, of course his performance so far is impressive. But just as obviously, he CAN’T sustain his current BA or even close to it, and looking at BABIP is a nice short hand way to illustrate that fact. His K rate is low, his power numbers not as bad as some people seem to think, all the hits probably great for his confidence, and he does seem to be hitting a ton of line drives. Even the one negative – a very low BB rate – is not that concerning at this point. But he isn’t a guy that is going to hit .350 or even close to it over the long haul.
I’ve made probably 2 dozen (at least) BABIP related predictions on this site over the past couple of years and have been proven right every time. You would think the scoffers would eventually be convicned by the empirics of the situation, but I guess not.
I think you’re coming on too strong for BABIP, and I use the stat frequently. I think Asche’s .356 BA is probably quite a bit more then JUST luck (though i’ll conceed 50-60% of it is). As I’m sure ted’s .404 batting average was quite a bit more then just luck. Maybe that year, Ted hit his LD’s and Ground Balls with more authority then any other year in his career, same could be for Asche at his present position.
If you say a player’s BABIP should be .330 (rounding up) assuming neutral luck (which you would get over say a 24 year career), then lets assume that player averages 20 foul outs in a given year, and averages 40 k’s per year while hitting no more then 10 HR’s.
In that above situation, you’re talking about a player who would have a career batting average of something less then .330, say .310. I’d like to hear your statistical explanation for Ty Cobb who had a career batting average of .3665, couldn’t hit home runs, had pretty low K’s, (and we’ll assume 20 foul outs though i have no idea).
Keep in mind Ty Cobb’s batting average occured over 13000 plate attempts, and I don’t believe you can argue that many plate attempts has anything to do with luck what-so-ever. Given the man was fast (especially early in his career), but I don’t think that completely compensates for the difference between .310-.315 and .366.
Just so you don’t think i’m completely bashing your idea, I would guess Asche’s we’ll call it adjusted for luck batting average, is probably closer to .310. Still outstanding if it plays out over the whole year tied to an ISO of say .160-.170
Well first of all I think you’re miss-reading my comment a little, maybe my fault for lack of clarity. Reading both your comments together I don’t even think we are disagreeing much. Certainly “real” BABIP rates do vary, based mainly upon line drive rate and speed. But as I’m sure you’ll concede – well you do concede in your follow up post – Asche’s current rate is far above any reasonable sustainable level.
Cobb of course is sui generis. He represents pretty much the extreme limit of a player who is fast and an extreme line drive hitter (and even so had a career BABIP of .378, (which is I believe the highest ever for a player with a real career), substantially lower than Asche has now). I suspect that the era he played in may be a factor there also. Asche is not regarded as particularly fast; with some rare exceptions, a player with normal speed, even an extreme line drive hitter, isn’t going to BABIP over .330 over the long run. And 177 AB so far this year is hardly enough evidence to demonstrate that he can sustain even that level.
Another way to look at this is to look at the number of AB that it takes for BA to become statistically significant. Not time to look it up right now, but as I recall it is close to 1000.
As I said, looking at the whole picture – success in a pitcher’s league, good contact rate, some power (more doubles than HR, but given his age/league those doubles could become HRs in future years), plays 3B – justifies some optimism for Asche. But his upside as a hitter in terms of BA is more like (as you say) .310 (and even that is optimistic) than .350.
Larry, although it appears I was under a misimpression that BABIP included home runs (it appears that the statistic excludes home runs, which is how one could have a BABIP lower than one’s batting average), my comment was intended as fluff. The underlying point, of course, is valid – statistically, there is a percentage of hits which should fall in and when you are getting unduly “lucky” sooner or later, your average is bound to reflect the law of averages. I think we all get that. The question I have is whether certain types of “contact” correlate with a higher or lower BABIP. In other words, does a player with a disproportionately higher percentage of line drives generally have a much higher BABIP that a player with a higher fly ball percentage? Just trying to get rules of thumb on BABIP numbers and what they mean.
If you look at the 5-6 years of Ty Cobbs career between 1913 and 1919 (the part where they actually track BABIP, becuase the real first 8 years of his career they don’t have the statistics), his BABIP about .400
Might also have some to do with larger fields back then… and less range in the game because of the utilization of modern physical training and such in professional baseball today. Hard to compare that long ago, but it’s still really crazy to think about the career he had and the statistics.
It was not uncommon for there to be around 60 errors between the two teams in a 7 game series. The fielding back then was absolutely nothing compared to what it is today. Probably makes for a more exciting ball game, however.
See my above response which is relevant to your comments as well. To expand upon that a bit, the relatively rare players who BABIP over .330 or thereabouts tend to combine extreme line drive ability with extreme speed. The speed leads to IF hits; for some players, IF hit rates are surprisingly high (one reason that, until recently, modern statistical analysis somewhat undervalued speed).
Cobb’s BABIP for the part of his career that we have the numbers for was .378. It’s true that was brought down a bit by his decline phase. I’m not sure that the fact that Ty Cobb, in that era and with his skills, managed that high a BABIP, tells us much about realistic expectations for a modern player. A better recent comparison is Suzuki, who is currently at .349 (brought down about 10 points or so by his past two seasons). Of course he is exactly the blend of line drive hitting and speed I talked about (with a huge number of IF hits). Asche may be a solid major leaguer or even better, but he is hardly going to turn into Ichiro, let alone Ty Cobb.
If he CAN maintain even a .330 BABIP with a good contact rate and some power, he will be a heck of a major leaguer (though a higher BB rate would be nice as well). We’re a long way from being able to project that level of success for him though. He is an exciting prospect to watch.
In a larger sense, the fact that the names being raised in this debate are people like Cobb and Williams – not exactly typical players – is itself pretty telling. Almost like someone pointing out that Josh Hamilton is unlikely to hit 67 HR (his current projected total), and then having someone respond that the fact that Bonds once hit 73 HR in a season is evidence that Hamilton will hit 67. And even that is not as ridiculous, as HRs gain statistical significance much faster than BA, and Hamilton has more of a track record than Asche.
That said, most of us in this debate are really on the same page, realizing on the one hand that there are real variations in players in BABIP, even after luck is removed from the equation, but that extreme BABIP numbers are not sustainable. The people who simply dismiss this type of analysis – and who ascribe disproportionate meaning to the fact Asche is batting over .350 – probably aren’t even following the thread.
He does seem star-crossed. However, if it’s a first time concussion, he should be fine. The last thing he should do is rush back from a concussion. Suffering a second concussion shortly after a first concussion is one of the worst things that can happen to an athlete so the team should avoid this at all costs. I am still very bullish on Gillies, but realistically, you are probably looking at the end of 2013 for his first call-up, assuming all goes well.
Of all the different stats I look at, the one number I can’t look away from is 11. That’s how many errors Hewitt has in RF in 36 games. I truly can’t fathom how that’s possible. Over a season, that would be 40 errors in the OF. Seriously?? The shortstop Duran has 7 in 42 games which seems pretty normal for a minor league SS. Hard to believe Harry…..
Welcome back to Zach Collier, a very encouraging 1st game with 2 hits and a steal while playing CF, which is what he needs to be able to play.
Biddle with another good game and Asche with 3 more hits. Nice! I wonder if the organization has dispatched additional hitting coaches to Lakewood…
Murray, Brown has 6 errors in 32 games in the outfield and he should be much more advanced than Hewitt. Remember Hewitt is a converted infielder. Not comparing Brown to Hewitt it terms of prospect value, but just saying….
I think it is pretty clear what I am saying. Brown is more advanced, but still makes a lot of errors. Both are much too high for outfield play, but why is it so hard to fathom that a converted infielder who is playing A ball would make more errors than a top prospect in AAA ball?
Crazy that throughout all the pub that Pointer and Eldemire were getting the early part of the year, Hudson is now only a few hits away from having the same batting average. I know BA is a flawed statistic and all but still…
Speaking of top 30 – does anyone dispute that if “The Departed” had not departed, Travis d’Arnaud would be our number one prospect with Jonathan Singleton trailing closely behind and with D. Santana (who is not yet 20!!!) somewhere around 5?
Did you really have to bring all them up? I just threw-up in my mouth, swallowed and am now stuck on endless repeat. The fact is, those trades did seem good at the time, but as of now, we have exactly 1 post season appearance (and an early exit) to show for it. From a big picture perspecive, knowing last years results and how the team is currently performing, I’d rather have the prospects back.
That said, at the time they seemed like great trades, and if a few balls had bounced better last year, it might be a different conversation. (and if Utley’s knees didn’t fall apart starting last year and Howards tendon didn’t go POP! at the end of last year, this year could be a different story as well).
Phuture Phillies 
Velis also with another great outing…..as well as Asche………other than that, not much to like.
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Wilson Garcia and Francisco Herrera continue to hit and with some power. Both are a little old to be great prospects, but not really too old. Velis looks like someone who should move pretty quickly given his polish at a young age. I don’t want to put too much stock in the results though, as any lefty with decent stuff and polish is going to have these results in the VSL.
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Garcia excites me because he’s listed as a catcher. He plays other positions too. But if he’s a catcher and can hit and hit for power, I’d like to see his state-side.
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Dom Brown walked, didn’t strike out, and (apparently- I didn’t actually see the game) played well in the OF. Doesn’t sound like much, but considering the two things hurting him right now are plate discipline and defense, I’ll take more nights like that.
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I’m more worried about his power than anything else right now. Keep waiting for that first homer!
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If you were pitching against the Iron Pigs would you give Dom Brown anything at all to hit? Cody Overbeck is the only protection for Brown right now.
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And he faced a pretty tough lefty in our old pal Yohan Flande
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What about the return of one Zach Collier!
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Thanks Marc Zumoff
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Nice to see Collier return. Always thought he had potential but injuries really derailed his career early on.
Small sample size and against questionable competition but Sergio Velis is a nice surprise.
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And Collier’s 50 game suspension didn’t help either.
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Any insight into why Steven Malcolm missed the entire year last year? Is he at risk of being released altogether once draft picks sign? What does Matt Campbell throw? His numbers are good and I like his SEC pedigree.
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Malcolm was sent home last April due to alcohol related violations of team rules. See http://www.phoulballz.com/2011/04/phils-prospect-malcolm-sent-home-for.html. A lost year on an 8th round draft pick in 2010 who allegedly signed for 125K. Came back this year with a “fresh start” (probably due to the investment that they made to sign him), but word is that he is immature and continues with similar antics. I expect that based on the perceived behavioral issues and his lackluster performance in LKWD that his future isn’t long with the organization.
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Sent home for alcohol? If he had any talent to begin with it would have been immaterial. If the phillies had a 23 year old babe ruth today I’m pretty sure they wouldn’t cut him for violating the teams alcohol or pandering policy. Just sayin’…
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I wasn’t bashing you btw, sorry if it came off as rude. I was just poking fun of the situation. But good lord, could you imagine how great it would be if the phillies had a 23 year old babe ruth right now? Oye
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I’d settle for a 20 year old Jon Singleton but I wouldn’t mind the Babe either.
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Crying a little harder. This has been the most disappointing phillies year since 2007… boy we got spoiled, but first (in all of MLB) to worst (in division) is hard to swallow.
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It doesn’t say he was sent home for alcohol. It says he was sent home for Misconduct… and violation of team rules related to alcohol consumption. He may have been sent home for anything ranging from having one drink, to missing curfew, to coming to work ‘hung-over’, to getting in bar fights. The point is not that he got sent home for having a drink, it’s that he broke/ignored team rules that were no doubt spelled out to him.
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How did Pat Burrell not get sent home for alcohol?
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That or pulling a “Sure, I’ll autograph your t-shirt if i can cop a feel…”
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Cody Asche needs to be moved up. Not much else to prove at Clearwater as he is cruising with .356 avg. Jeremy Barnes is wasting in Clearwater at 3B hitting .208.
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They might be waiting for him to hit for power but, yes, the man is a hitting metronome. Nothing about his performance last summer suggested he could skip a level and hit like this. It’s very impressive.
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Right. It’s still early in the season and he won’t turn 22 until the end of June. And I’d like to see his walk rate increase to where it was last season as it’s quite low right now in spite of his batting average. Lots to like here though but a bad stretch can take him below .300 in no time. Another 100abs or so before I start hoping for a promotion
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I’ll worry about his BB rate when his BA drops significantly (either at this level or next)
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I was surprised that Hulett got promoted to LHV and Asche did not get the bump to Reading to replace him. That would have been a logical move in my mind. Perhaps there is something that Asche is not doing or needs to improve that we cannot observe from a box score?
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He has already been double jumped. If he started at Lakewood he may be at Clearwater by now but this organization is not the type to move a player 3 levels in less than half a season.
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Fair enough.
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Asche is only 44 games removed from a less than successful debut at Williamsport. He was double jumped to A+. Let’s let him go through a couple of pitching cycles to see if A+ pitchers adjust and then how he adjusts. He’s not taking over for Polanco next season so let him aclimate. If he heads into mid-July and he’s still on a tear, then pop him up to Reading. He’s only 21 (22 on June 30). It’s not like he’s already long in the tooth. This is also his 1st year playing 3rd base prossionally. If you want more power, Clearwater may not be the park to pump up that stat. He’s hitting 2B and 3B at a nice clip. If you want the opposite side of the power story then he’s got a .486 slugging % and that’s 5th or 6th in the league.
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I like to look at ISO because it takes out the singles. Asche’s stands at .130 right now. Improved from earlier in the season but not great, though he is in a pitcher’s environment and he’s almost certainly still adjusting to the higher level of competition. I agree with Steve that another 100 time to the plate and still hitting over even .325 and I’d say he’ll move up.
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Do you have his ISO stats over the last 75 PAs? I think he has reaqlly elevated them from the start of April.
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His ISO for May is .176
Just subtracted his avg: .373 from his slugging: .549
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Agreed. I just don’t understand why so many call for guys to get promoted the moment they show any signs of success at their current level. It will do Asche no harm to get a few hundred at-bats at Clearwater to see if he can sustain his current pace.
Whether he gets to Reading in June, August, or at the start of 2013 will have little impact on his long-term progression.
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True, unless he gets rushed too fast – that could impact him long-term. I understand the immediate gratification desired by many – it’s our culture. But we just need to chill, enjoy his current success and anticipate.
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In this case it kinda makes sense because once Asche moves up, Martinez will likely move up too, and consequently no longer have to play out of position.
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His BABIP is still too high at .399 though…
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I wonder if people said that about Ted Williams the year he hit .406.
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If they had known about BABIP at the time, I’m sure they would have, and rightfully so.
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Or not! I was looking at the wrong line. His BABIP the year he hit .406 was ‘only’ .378. He certainly did benefit from some luck that year, but it wasn’t that far away from his career norms. It was a combination of a really good year, and a decent amount of luck.
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Could somebody help me with something of a statistical nature? How is it possible that Ted Williams could hit .406 and only have a BABIP of .378? In order to have a batting average of .406 on ALL of his at bats, wouldn’t his BABIP, which is a subset of all of his at bats, have to be higher than .406? In other words, if you had ten at bats, and hit .400, but you struck out twice during those ten at bats, your batting average on balls in play would have to be at least .500 (4/8 hits on balls put play). Am I missing something? Perhaps I do not understand the statistic. Could someone who understands the stat let me know?
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Does BABIP exclude home runs?
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Yes, yes it does.
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Thanks
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That is an inane comment on a couple of different levels, but the interesting thing about it is that, looking William’s career as a whole, and even that season specifically, just further supports those of us who evaluate players properly by looking at the important underlying statistics.
On a career basis, Williams had a good but by no means remarkable BABIP of .328 – above average but perfectly consitent with him being a solid line drive hitter. His career average of .344 was more a prduct of the combined facts that he hit a lot of HR and rarely struck out. On a career basis, he had almost as many HRs as Ks.
His BABIP in the year he hit .406 was higher – .378 – not nearly as high as (say) Asche’s current unsustainable BABIP, and not sustainable even by Williams over a career. But even then, he would not have hit nowhere near .400 but for the fact that, in 356 AB he hit 37 HR and only 27 strike outs. That’s not a typo, 10 more HRs than Ks.
As for Asche, of course his performance so far is impressive. But just as obviously, he CAN’T sustain his current BA or even close to it, and looking at BABIP is a nice short hand way to illustrate that fact. His K rate is low, his power numbers not as bad as some people seem to think, all the hits probably great for his confidence, and he does seem to be hitting a ton of line drives. Even the one negative – a very low BB rate – is not that concerning at this point. But he isn’t a guy that is going to hit .350 or even close to it over the long haul.
I’ve made probably 2 dozen (at least) BABIP related predictions on this site over the past couple of years and have been proven right every time. You would think the scoffers would eventually be convicned by the empirics of the situation, but I guess not.
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I think you’re coming on too strong for BABIP, and I use the stat frequently. I think Asche’s .356 BA is probably quite a bit more then JUST luck (though i’ll conceed 50-60% of it is). As I’m sure ted’s .404 batting average was quite a bit more then just luck. Maybe that year, Ted hit his LD’s and Ground Balls with more authority then any other year in his career, same could be for Asche at his present position.
If you say a player’s BABIP should be .330 (rounding up) assuming neutral luck (which you would get over say a 24 year career), then lets assume that player averages 20 foul outs in a given year, and averages 40 k’s per year while hitting no more then 10 HR’s.
In that above situation, you’re talking about a player who would have a career batting average of something less then .330, say .310. I’d like to hear your statistical explanation for Ty Cobb who had a career batting average of .3665, couldn’t hit home runs, had pretty low K’s, (and we’ll assume 20 foul outs though i have no idea).
Keep in mind Ty Cobb’s batting average occured over 13000 plate attempts, and I don’t believe you can argue that many plate attempts has anything to do with luck what-so-ever. Given the man was fast (especially early in his career), but I don’t think that completely compensates for the difference between .310-.315 and .366.
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Just so you don’t think i’m completely bashing your idea, I would guess Asche’s we’ll call it adjusted for luck batting average, is probably closer to .310. Still outstanding if it plays out over the whole year tied to an ISO of say .160-.170
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Well first of all I think you’re miss-reading my comment a little, maybe my fault for lack of clarity. Reading both your comments together I don’t even think we are disagreeing much. Certainly “real” BABIP rates do vary, based mainly upon line drive rate and speed. But as I’m sure you’ll concede – well you do concede in your follow up post – Asche’s current rate is far above any reasonable sustainable level.
Cobb of course is sui generis. He represents pretty much the extreme limit of a player who is fast and an extreme line drive hitter (and even so had a career BABIP of .378, (which is I believe the highest ever for a player with a real career), substantially lower than Asche has now). I suspect that the era he played in may be a factor there also. Asche is not regarded as particularly fast; with some rare exceptions, a player with normal speed, even an extreme line drive hitter, isn’t going to BABIP over .330 over the long run. And 177 AB so far this year is hardly enough evidence to demonstrate that he can sustain even that level.
Another way to look at this is to look at the number of AB that it takes for BA to become statistically significant. Not time to look it up right now, but as I recall it is close to 1000.
As I said, looking at the whole picture – success in a pitcher’s league, good contact rate, some power (more doubles than HR, but given his age/league those doubles could become HRs in future years), plays 3B – justifies some optimism for Asche. But his upside as a hitter in terms of BA is more like (as you say) .310 (and even that is optimistic) than .350.
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Larry, although it appears I was under a misimpression that BABIP included home runs (it appears that the statistic excludes home runs, which is how one could have a BABIP lower than one’s batting average), my comment was intended as fluff. The underlying point, of course, is valid – statistically, there is a percentage of hits which should fall in and when you are getting unduly “lucky” sooner or later, your average is bound to reflect the law of averages. I think we all get that. The question I have is whether certain types of “contact” correlate with a higher or lower BABIP. In other words, does a player with a disproportionately higher percentage of line drives generally have a much higher BABIP that a player with a higher fly ball percentage? Just trying to get rules of thumb on BABIP numbers and what they mean.
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If you look at the 5-6 years of Ty Cobbs career between 1913 and 1919 (the part where they actually track BABIP, becuase the real first 8 years of his career they don’t have the statistics), his BABIP about .400
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He was lucky haha, sure it wasn’t that he hit the ball hard all the time
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Might also have some to do with larger fields back then… and less range in the game because of the utilization of modern physical training and such in professional baseball today. Hard to compare that long ago, but it’s still really crazy to think about the career he had and the statistics.
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It was not uncommon for there to be around 60 errors between the two teams in a 7 game series. The fielding back then was absolutely nothing compared to what it is today. Probably makes for a more exciting ball game, however.
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See my above response which is relevant to your comments as well. To expand upon that a bit, the relatively rare players who BABIP over .330 or thereabouts tend to combine extreme line drive ability with extreme speed. The speed leads to IF hits; for some players, IF hit rates are surprisingly high (one reason that, until recently, modern statistical analysis somewhat undervalued speed).
Cobb’s BABIP for the part of his career that we have the numbers for was .378. It’s true that was brought down a bit by his decline phase. I’m not sure that the fact that Ty Cobb, in that era and with his skills, managed that high a BABIP, tells us much about realistic expectations for a modern player. A better recent comparison is Suzuki, who is currently at .349 (brought down about 10 points or so by his past two seasons). Of course he is exactly the blend of line drive hitting and speed I talked about (with a huge number of IF hits). Asche may be a solid major leaguer or even better, but he is hardly going to turn into Ichiro, let alone Ty Cobb.
If he CAN maintain even a .330 BABIP with a good contact rate and some power, he will be a heck of a major leaguer (though a higher BB rate would be nice as well). We’re a long way from being able to project that level of success for him though. He is an exciting prospect to watch.
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In a larger sense, the fact that the names being raised in this debate are people like Cobb and Williams – not exactly typical players – is itself pretty telling. Almost like someone pointing out that Josh Hamilton is unlikely to hit 67 HR (his current projected total), and then having someone respond that the fact that Bonds once hit 73 HR in a season is evidence that Hamilton will hit 67. And even that is not as ridiculous, as HRs gain statistical significance much faster than BA, and Hamilton has more of a track record than Asche.
That said, most of us in this debate are really on the same page, realizing on the one hand that there are real variations in players in BABIP, even after luck is removed from the equation, but that extreme BABIP numbers are not sustainable. The people who simply dismiss this type of analysis – and who ascribe disproportionate meaning to the fact Asche is batting over .350 – probably aren’t even following the thread.
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sorry meant Barnes is at Reading
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Reading paper reports Gillies out with concussion
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Damn…kid just cant catch a break. I’d love to see what he could do with a 4-5 fully healthy months.
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He does seem star-crossed. However, if it’s a first time concussion, he should be fine. The last thing he should do is rush back from a concussion. Suffering a second concussion shortly after a first concussion is one of the worst things that can happen to an athlete so the team should avoid this at all costs. I am still very bullish on Gillies, but realistically, you are probably looking at the end of 2013 for his first call-up, assuming all goes well.
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I figured as much, he and James hit at full speed and it looked ugly, I was surprised it was only his wrist at the time.
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Of all the different stats I look at, the one number I can’t look away from is 11. That’s how many errors Hewitt has in RF in 36 games. I truly can’t fathom how that’s possible. Over a season, that would be 40 errors in the OF. Seriously?? The shortstop Duran has 7 in 42 games which seems pretty normal for a minor league SS. Hard to believe Harry…..
Welcome back to Zach Collier, a very encouraging 1st game with 2 hits and a steal while playing CF, which is what he needs to be able to play.
Biddle with another good game and Asche with 3 more hits. Nice! I wonder if the organization has dispatched additional hitting coaches to Lakewood…
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Murray, Brown has 6 errors in 32 games in the outfield and he should be much more advanced than Hewitt. Remember Hewitt is a converted infielder. Not comparing Brown to Hewitt it terms of prospect value, but just saying….
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~30% of games with an error vs. ~20% is significantly different. Not sure what you’re just saying.
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I think it is pretty clear what I am saying. Brown is more advanced, but still makes a lot of errors. Both are much too high for outfield play, but why is it so hard to fathom that a converted infielder who is playing A ball would make more errors than a top prospect in AAA ball?
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SIFPA, I thought Anthony Hewitt played CF in High School when he was drafted.
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Crazy that throughout all the pub that Pointer and Eldemire were getting the early part of the year, Hudson is now only a few hits away from having the same batting average. I know BA is a flawed statistic and all but still…
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Don’t know what to make of Eldemire. I’m not sure if he’d be in my top 30 prospects.
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Speaking of top 30 – does anyone dispute that if “The Departed” had not departed, Travis d’Arnaud would be our number one prospect with Jonathan Singleton trailing closely behind and with D. Santana (who is not yet 20!!!) somewhere around 5?
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Did you really have to bring all them up? I just threw-up in my mouth, swallowed and am now stuck on endless repeat. The fact is, those trades did seem good at the time, but as of now, we have exactly 1 post season appearance (and an early exit) to show for it. From a big picture perspecive, knowing last years results and how the team is currently performing, I’d rather have the prospects back.
That said, at the time they seemed like great trades, and if a few balls had bounced better last year, it might be a different conversation. (and if Utley’s knees didn’t fall apart starting last year and Howards tendon didn’t go POP! at the end of last year, this year could be a different story as well).
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That was to catch22 above… sorry for the misplacement
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