48 thoughts on “Box Score Recap 5-20-2012”

    1. There’s no room for Alonso – Hernandez is manning second at Reading and, in any event, Alonso is much older, making him a borderline prospect at best. I think Asche will be promoted before the end of June, and perhaps sooner. He has become a hitting machine, something the big league team needs desperately at third base. I think the Phils will exercise Polanco’s option this off season, but Asche could get the call some time in 2013.

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        1. hmmmm probably somewhere between 4-7. In my book, he has nudged slightly ahead of Valle. But these lists are so fluid. Can you believe that Diekman was not in most people’s top 30!!!

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        2. I’d keep May/Biddle 1/2, move Freddy up to #3 (assuming he doesn’t lose prospect status), then have Asche move all the way up to #4. He deserves to be ahead of Pettibone and obviously Colvin, plus he has clear advantages over all other position players with the possible exception of Cesar, who I’d probably slot in at a close #5.

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        3. Somewhere in top ten. Where depends on how his power and defense. Mediocre power and defense, back end. Good power and D, best prospect. Assuming he can keep hitting around .300, the early returns are good on him. Hopefully he keeps it up.

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            1. If you extrapolate his full year stats we’re looking at 39 doubles, 13 triples (this seems like a statistical anomoly) and 10 HR’s. Coming out of school various publications had him anywhere from above average to plus on both his hitting tool and his power tool. The knock on him was not his arm, but rather his lateral movement defensively. (in other words, they figure he might end up to big to stick at third, he finished at nebraska at 6’2” 198lbs though more recent reports have him losing weight?!? not sure what’s up there.)

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            2. Also if you look at his monthly splits he showed almost no power in April with a .333/.370/.400 slash line and in May his slash line is .397/.416/.616 (wow).

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        4. I agree with the lot of you! As excited as I was about Franco (*who seems to have fizzled a bit), I’m equally if not more excited about Asche, he’s more advanced, and his got a significantly larger data set to evaluate, and of course, he was taken in the same round as Ryan Howard, so we can expect him to do atleast that good in his MLB career right?! (kidding!)

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        5. I would probably rank him somewhere between 15 and 20. He is finally displaying the hit tool that he showed in college. He is age appropriate. Needs more power and patience to be ranked higher (or to continue this at a higher level). Still a small sample size and his defense is an unknown to me. Definitely a great start however and he is now a prospect to watch.

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        6. I’d rank him about #11, right now. He is clobbering High A pitching, right now. Which is what he is supposed to do, as a major college hitter. I have Wright and Morgan ahead of him for now, but if Asche keeps this up through the month of June, then I would probably bump him to #8.

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          1. I disagree. Although college pitchers sometimes dominate through high A ball their first year out, it is different with hitters. Typically, only the most elite hitters can skip a level after rookie ball and hit the ground running in high A, in a pitcher’s park, in a pitcher’s league. By comparison, Ryan Howard, spent a full year at Lakewood and a full year at Clearwater before tearing the cover off the ball in AA. Chase Utley skipped a level and did well at high A, but only hit around .260 (albeit with power and discipline). What Asche is doing so far is special considering he is not yet 22. It looks like the guy can just flat out hit.

            I have a feeling that, in a few years, we are going to look back on the 2011 draft fondly. I think it’s pretty clearly going to be the best draft since the haul in 2008 and, frankly, it might even be better than that draft. What I like about the draft is the balance between promising college players (Asche, Wright, Morgan) and intriguing youngsters (Quinn, Greene, Greene, and Walding). There will be multiple big league players from this draft and I think at least a couple will be above average or better major league regulars.

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            1. What he is doing is not special. We, as Phillies followers, are just not used to having good college position players who hit at this level. Legit College players should be able to hit High A. And its not like he is OPSing 1.000, but he is doing very well (not special).
              Also, placing Asche at #4, above Cesar Hernandez, makes no sense. Hernandez, is the same age, playing at a higher level, playing at a premium defensive position, while hitting just as well. Asche may not even have the ability to stay at 3B.

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            2. I wouldn’t call it special either, but OPSing .900 in that league is no joke- he’s 5th in the league. And he’s only gotten better as the season’s gone on. He hasn’t blown the top off my enthusiasm yet, but I am excited about him as a prospect.

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            3. 100 points better OPS in a pitchers league than a more advanced but hitters league at the same age in my opinion is close. 3B seems to have a lack of talent at the ML level as a whole, so I wouldn’t assume 2B is more valuable as it was in the past. And Cesar has had 6 years of professional coaching, while Asche has had <1. I think Asche has a higher upside, but for me it's close. Maybe I'm more down on the other guys at Reading than I should, but I can't think of guys I'd legitimately rank ahead of him.

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            4. It doesn’t matter what the difference is in hitting standard, between 2B and 3rd basemen, for Major leaguers. The point is, 2B is a premium defensive position and 3B is not. Add to that, Hernandez is thought to be a plus defender (while Asche is thought to be below) the defensive side of the ball clearly puts Hernandez ahead of Asche. Hernandez would be ahead of Asche in prospect status if he was still in High A, let alone AA.

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            5. On your point about the 2011 draft, I agree. It is the best since 2008. In fact, if 2 of Quinn, Walding, LGj or Shull breakout, I think it has a good chance to be better.

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        7. Quick list – excluding 2011 draftees who haven’t played this year I would call him #9 or #10 after Austin Wright and close with Cesar. Galvis does not count in my list, as I think he’s going to exceed rookie status if he hasn’t already. May Biddle Valle Franco Aumont JRod Pettibone Wright Asche/Cesar. I think Franco should not be discounted for his AVG this year, his Ks are fair, (under 17% the way i figured it), and his ISO is better than it was when we ranked him high last year (.159 now vs .124 at Williamsport last year). Also, I am assuming Aumont’s struggles were due to his injury, which wasn’t an elbow or shoulder, so doesn’t seem terrible. We’ll see on that. I now think Colvin is going to wind up in the bullpen, personally, so he’s down in the low teens for me at this point. He could still turn it around.

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      2. Surely you jest. One name Timothy Craig Hulett 29 years old and hitting below the Mendoza line. Alonso plays many positions and can fit it anywhere. Are you letting the fact that you are an Asche fan cloud your judgement? One has almost nothing to due with one another. Certainly Alonso is not going to block Asche. If nothing else other prospect could learn to get on base CA is +.400 OBP in an organization that swings away too much.

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  2. Alonso can play multiple positions, including 3B. Wouldn’t write him off as a non prospect since has yet to really struggle after each promotion. I agree he’s old for A+ but let’s see what he can do in Reading before we label him an org guy.

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    1. All the more reason to move him on NOW. Tug’s chance of seeing the majors is about the same as you and me. What do they have to gain by holding Alonso back except incredible shortsightedness (late round choice ). GET OVER IT. Ruben. The cube gives him fairly good grade especially contact.

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      1. If they keep him in Clearwater to work on his fielding and give him reps at shortstop (making him a utility infield candidate), is that fair?

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    2. What about sending Alonso to AAA? He’d be more free to play various positions there than at Reading. It’s a big jump, but he might be the kind of guy who could handle it given his apparently advanced approach at the plate.

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      1. Maybe a month in Reading then AAA. He sinks or swims. Orr etc. are not helping.. Challenge players and you might get surprised.

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  3. Captain obvious here, but if Asche turns out to be a legit 3b MLB player that would be amazing. To come out of nowhere like that is so awesome as a fan.

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    2. Well, he was a 4th round draft pick – a certain percentage of these fairly high picks should work out. The really good teams pick up their depth in the 3rd-7th rounds. Still, it is like finding gold when one of these guys becomes really good. James nailed this one on the head, just as he did with Singleton a few years earlier. If you remember, after the draft, James had Asche right around the top ten. Very perceptive. Last year it looked like he missed on that prediction but it turns out he was dead on right.

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      1. I was just thinking about PP’s high ranking of Asche last year. If I remember, he got killed for it by some commenters.

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        1. During the midseason re-ranks he had him pretty high. I think it was based on him projecting as a 2nd basemen if I remember correctly.

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  4. Though I’ve been cautious on Asche, I will note that this is also why some of the Rookie Ball/Short Season stats need to be taken with a grain of salt. It is not uncommon for legitimately good prospects to struggle. I have concerns. His plate discipline is iffy and his stock drops if he moves off third. But as far as our prospect list, yeah I’d see him in the top 20. Want to see him a full year before pushing him higher.

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    1. I would say his BB% last year was a very respectible 9% and his scouting reports out of college seem to think he has good plate discipline, that said, it’s on the low side this year but his low K rate lends me to believe he’s got a good eye, and makes his statistical lack of walks less of a concern. Why take a walk when you’re hitting .360+ with decent power?

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      1. I disagree to some extent here. He’s shown good to above average BB rates in the past. The lower walk rate this year can probably be explained away as simply as – he’s absolutely tearing the cover off the ball and sees no need to take a walk. Over a larger sample size I’d think that it works its way back to previous levels.

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          1. There’s a key difference though. Between a Placido Polanco who makes consistent contact, and an Alfonso Soriano who flails.

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    2. I’m not ready to move Asche into the top 5 like some, I’d be curious to see what players you would rank ahead of Asche in the top 20. I think even with this sample size, he has passed a number of the position players, that I liked better, at the beginning of the season.

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      1. I’m playing it conservative, looking at BA’s Top 30 and seeing who he’s passed. Kyrell Hudson was #18 and Harold Garcia #19. Fair to say I’d rather have Asche. Julio Rodriguez is #17, that’s a tougher call. Ervis Manzanillo at #16, I’d take Asche. But Asche against Aaron Altherr or Cesar Hernandez? I like both those guys a bit better. So at that point I can’t say for certain he’s top 15. I wouldn’t start to rework a list until we’re at least a third into the season.

        Let me note Maikel Franco, since he’s the other 3B prospect. Batting average has slipped but he’s hitting for well above average power, he’s still just 19 and in Lakewood. I still see Franco as the better prospect.

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        1. I agree. I still have Franco ahead of Asche, but i’ve moved him ahead of all of the HS draft picks and Tocci, for now.

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  5. Is the .415 BABIP worrisome with Asche? If that regresses to a more normal number, he doesn’t look so great anymore without the walks. Unless it’s all line drives, which fangraphs doesn’t track (curse them!).

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    1. Given the number of at-bats already passed this year and the fact that going forward his BABIP is just as likely to be over .330 as under .330, It’s getting more and more likely he’ll end the year with a well above average BABIP. Say somewhere in the .355 range. This would put his BA at say .305. Now, I agree with you, if his BA drops to .300ish with some power and his walks don’t improve, then it’s not as impressive, but come year end he’d still end up in my top 10 prospects, especially at high A (which is a power zapper), with a lot to look forward to nextd year at Reading (though he’ll probably be bumped much sooner).

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  6. why not move asche, he is a college player, look at toronto they have gose at double aa, and he is 19 i believe, singleton is at double a too at younger age with less experiences. phillies dont move propect imo like other orginization do. look at utley had to wait howard. and others

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    1. Gose is 21 and playing AAA right now. Singleton is 20 at AA, and they were HS guys who have had time to progress at each level before being jumped. Singleton skipped Williamsport, which was an aggressive promotion by the Phils, and they did the same for guys like Altherr who had to go back to Williamsport and Ty Greene who I assume is headed to Williamsport, but I don’t know for sure.

      Asche skipped Lakewood, so we can’t realy say he’s being held back. He’s only been at this level for a month and a half. If he’s not moved up mid-year, then maybe there’s room to gripe. IMO he’s fine getting another 100+ PA in high-A.

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      1. Altherr didn’t skip Williamsport, before going to Lakewood. In 2010, he played the first month in GCL, then was promoted to Williamsport.

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  7. I realize that this comment belongs in the open discussion forum, but we don’t have one of those pending so here goes. Although the trade occurred a really long time ago, it was very hard going to CBP last night to see Gio Gonzalez carve up the Phillies knowing that we traded him and Gavin Floyd for one win Freddy Garcia. This has to be one of the worst trades of all time. Gonzalez is a beast. His fastaball sits at 92-94 MPH and regularly touches 95 and 96. I know Mike Rizzo can be a jerk, but his moves this past offseason were darned near brilliant. Sure he got two ridiculous gifts in Strasburg and Harper (how lucky is he to get two generational first pick talents in consecutive years?), but he’s made some other very good moves (Jayson Werth notwithstanding). The Nationals look like a legitimate 90 win team this year and for the forseeable future and, unlike the Braves, they seem to match up well against the Phillies.

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    1. Catch, Gio is a very good pitcher but the A’s got Tom Milone who is 6-1 in Oakland, Brad Peacock who is also expected to be very good along with another top prospect who went to Oakland. Before you crown Rizzo GM of the year lets see how the rest of the year goes as facing the Phillies right now is not daunting.

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    2. Carve up the phillies? He threw 107 pitches in 6 innings, had 3 ball counts all over the place, was the beneficiary of several rockets hit right at people, and some terrible base running mixed in. It was a terrible trade but had he not gone in that deal he probably would have gone for Blanton or Lee or Halladay.

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