82 thoughts on “Box Score Recap, 07 May 2012”

    1. 0-3 with 2 SO and a fielding error. Seems like a typical Dom Brown day to me.

      More and more, he looks like a complete and utter bust.

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      1. Yeah, sure is starting to look that way. I think by the start of the 2013 season he just needs to be in the big leagues. If that’s as a superstar leftfielder, great. If its as a 4th or 5th OF, so be it.

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  2. I am happy to see Hewitt’s average creeping up and him moving up to 6th in the batting order. I am sad to see Franco’s average creeping down and him moving down to 6th in the batting order.

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  3. All of a sudden it’s Lakewood, not Clearwater, that’s struggling with the bats. The Franco/Pointer/Eldemire cerberus has gone ice cold.

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    1. Not surprising. Cleareawater has a bunch of 23-24 year old in their lineup. Lakewood is younger, with many 20 year olds in the lineup.

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  4. Ethan Stewart’s line was interesting. He’s locked in a pitcher’s duel with a Mets farmhand. Through 6 innings, he’s given up 2 Hits, 0 runs, 1 BB and has 6Ks. He gets the first guy in the 7th and then walks the bases full. Arias comes on and gives up a bases clearing double. In one inning he goes from having a great game to more runs given up than hits with BBs galore. He’s had a ton of BBs this year (19 in 31 innings) but only 20 hits. It looks like when he gets a little tired, he gets wild. In the low minors, they often let the guys go a little longer to see if they can straighten themselves out. As he progresses, he’d be yanked once the wheels start to fall off.

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    2. He was the first Claw to go into the 7th this year ,he has only 8 runs in support in 6 games he has started this year .

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  5. Hey PP, at what point do you start to get excited about Asche? .340 is great in any league. Not worried about lack of power right now personally. Any reports on his defense?

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    1. Batting average tells none of the story. His BABIP is an unsustainable .402 at this point, he’s only walking in 5.8% of ABs, and his ISO is an underwhelming .083. On the glass half full side, he’s striking out in only 14.6% of ABs versus 18.7% the previous year. He’s shown the ability to draw walks at a decent clip, but the power needs to make a serious jump forward if he’s to be considered a legit starting 3B prospect. I’ve got nothing on him defensively, however.

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    2. Saw Asche play about 8 times in April, I’m not a defensive expert but in my “amaturish” opinion I’d say avg range and avg arm. The only negative I saw was that he did not have “soft” hands. The errors he committed were dropped or fumbled balls that were already in his glove. And sometimes he would still get the out but didn’t look real smooth in doing so. Now most of that I noticed in the first homestand so maybe it was just nerves, because latter on he did look better.

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  6. Asche is going to fall off a cliff once his BABIP normalizes. I’d like to see the power and patience numbers start to tick up

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  7. Nice to see Birmingham get activated finally. Did Dom get hurt again? 4 hits between two teams is not good. The batting averages are plummeting quickly. Threre was so much excitement over the LWood lineup, it doesn’t look very good right now. There are very few feel good stories right now so let’s enjoy the few we have. May has looked very good except for his last start, Diekman has looked great, Cloyd is opening eyes, Gillies seems to be getting there, Asche has made himself known, same for Lavin, Altherr might be breaking thru, Morgan and Wright (before last night) have looked very good. The bad stories far exceed the good ones unfortunately..

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    1. Thought the same thing about Birmingham. Was he hurt? Impressive numbers last year, and a high group in spring training and not active til now.

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  8. I don’t think the year has been all that bad to be honest with you. You have to remember that, to a large extent, the minor leagues operate on the “Peter Principle.” I am guessing that less than 5% of the prospects make the majors and only a fraction of those players go on to be productive major leaguers. So what you have, in essence, is a whole lot of players who simply rise to the leve of their incompetence, whether that be at low A ball or in AAA or someplace in between. Failure is the norm. The goal of the major league team is to produce a few solid players every year and to provide a few additional players that can be used in trades. So, when I look at minor league team, I ask myself – does this team have one or two players that I can envision becoming good major leaguers and does it have a few others who, if things break right, have that type of upside or who, at least might make the majors in any role? If the answer is yes, the team is doing a good job with its minor leaguers. Take, for example, the Reading Phillies. This team has one very good prospect who is likely to be a good major leaguer – Trevor May – and a bunch of other guys who could easily make the majors as some point – Hernandez, Rodriguez, Pettibone, Gillies, Bonilla and James. As far as I’m concerned, that’s a very good minor league prospect team. And you go through the system and each team appears to fit that description, even the AAA team, which has a bunch of good relief pitching prospects and an outfielder – Dom Brown – who, sooner or later, will probably be at least a decent major leaguer.

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    1. That having been said, I think, in most systems, you would like to see 2 or 3 players you think have a very good chance to become a star. Admittedly, there is nobody in the Phils’ farm system that rises to that level at this point. So, to that extent, the system is lacking. Brown’s star has dimmed and May could become an elite prospect, but he’s a slight notch below that at this point.

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      1. Elite prospects absolutely dominate the minors. Go look at Hamels’ numbers in the minors and compare it to May. May is a guy that might develop into a solid starting pitcher at the MLB level but its not even close to a guarantee. The Phillies do not have a single elite prospect.

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        1. Brown absolutely dominated the minors in 2010 before the Phillies screwed him up, and was a #1 prospect at one point. He definitely qualifies as an elite prospect based on his potential, even if it is currently uncertain whether he will ever realize it.

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      2. I’m not sure I believe May isn’t an elite prospect, he’s had the stuff of elite prospects, the issue has always been his command/control… and those things are fickle (as in they can change quickly). I don’t think anyone had Roy Halladay as the god of C&C when he came up as a rookie. His first two years in the league he had a BB/9 over 5. (total >200 IP)

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    2. I can’t agree more. Fact is, the majority of these minor leaguers will never make it the big show. And a select few will be starters, let alone top tier players. I think if Brown, Aumont, Cloyd can hold down jobs in 2013 for the Phillies, it’ll be great. Trevor May I think is still projected for 2014 unless he goes lights out the rest of the way.

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  9. Couple of points…

    I just came to this conclusion five mins. ago, but Domonic Brown needs a new team… not saying the phillies should trade him for a bag of balls, but the fact is, he’s done here. It’s rather a shame, but the bottom line is, the phillies should have made him the starting left fielder after the Pence trade, or platooned him with Mayberry and gave him spot starts at right. His defense has regressed, his offense has regressed, and as far as I’m concerned, he’s done with the phillies. If he stays here, he will never have a major league career, let me say that again, NEVER. I believe it more now then ever.

    In terms of the anti-hot sheet, looks like the following players are droping like rocks…

    Brown
    Eldemire
    Franco
    Greene
    Valle (.360 BABIP and still only hitting .250? wtf!)

    Other then May, This has been a pretty disappointing beginning of the year for me. Still early, not too concerned yet.

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    1. It’s too early to worry about Franco. He’s 19, hitting for power and drawing walks. I’m honestly more impressed with him than Cody Asche, whose performance is 90% batting average.

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    2. The beginning of this year hasn’t been that bad, IMO. I think unrealistic expectations of some players is the reality. Outside of Dom Brown, who really isn’t a prospect anymore, I don’t see many players severely under performing. In fact, I think the 2011 draft class has a chance to be very good, since all of the college players taken high, are performing.
      The overall performance level of the relievers isn’t of much concern to me, because I don’t expect much out of minor league relievers. The talented arms are mostly starters, anyway.

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    3. Sadly, I’m with you regarding Brown – it seems like the Phils brass seems to be really down on him, and has been for the past couple years. I think he might be a bit off mentally at this point, and seems like he is now a “change of scenery” guy.

      He will then turn into a star in someone else’s system, and Phils fans and sportswriters everywhere will start talking about him as the One Who Got Away. Actually, it’s more likely that he will have a productive MLB career elsewhere – just not as a star. Think Marlon Anderson, Marlon Byrd, Johnny “Marlon” Estrada, etc

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    4. There are some good kids out there. If you like May, look at Austin Wright on Clearwater, he is having a great year, had a minor set back yesterday, but aside from that the kid is getting more consistent with each game. He and May are extremely close in stats this season so far. Keep your eyes on Austin, he’s for real…

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  10. Asche with an rbi….ask for production and you get it…granted it was in other post but i know everyone read it!

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  11. My biggest disappointment this year is the bullpen prospects at the higher levels. Went into this season with young relivers / prospects Bastardo, Stutes, Herndon, DeFratus, Schwimer, Aumont, Savery, and Diekman. Of those 8, we have 3 on the DL with non-trivial arm injuries. Bastardo is surviving, but is just a fraction of his former self. Schwimer and Savery are healthy but have struggled in the big leagues and don’t look like they have an upside higher than middle relievers. Aumont has struggled badly with his control to the point that he’s not even in consideration for promotion anytime soon. That leaves Diekman as the sole good news story of this group of 8.

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  12. Looks like everyone had their debbie downer cereal today. Why don’t we all just slit our wrists and call it a day…

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    1. Haha fair enough, I’ll do a positive spin on our entire system… ready?

      1.) May has the upside of a #1 starter, he’s really impressed me this year, his command/control has improved dramatically and his K rates have remained high. I could see him being a legit blue chip prospect in next years “top 100″… think top 15.

      2.) I have serious hope for the top two picks in last years draft. Even though I have yet to hear anything about either this year.

      3.) Worley looks to be a legit #3, I’m really excited about that.

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      1. I’ll add that Morgan and Wright both look like possible major leaguers down the road plus Gillies is healthy and starting to play like a guy with a big league future.

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  13. Anybody know anything about Carlos Alonso? Prospect or Project? 2010 draft pick from the U of Delaware. 24 years old. Hitting .340 (only 50 ABs) with a .407 OBP at Clearwater. Pretty good eye; 4 Ks, 4 BBs; 25 BB vs 13 K at Lakewood last year. Almost no power, but plays middle infield. No errors so far this year, but again, small sample.

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    1. He is a 3B and is probably playing some middle infield because he is the best fit for a utility role. Most likely a non prospect but the type of solid citizen clubs like to have in bench roles in the minors.

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  14. Any word on a call up today? Cole Hamels is serving his suspension without appeal. The Phillies could easily call up a bench bat or spare reliever, since they don’t actually need to add another starter to take Cole’s place. (With the off day, they will skip his rotation spot and Halladay will pitch on normal rest.)

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      1. I have a hunch that they’ll DL Contreras when Hamels is back. Contreras isn’t really hurt but I think he needs to chance to pitch more than he has and that would be one way to get him needed work. Otherwise, I think they’ll keep Sanches over Schwimer at this point with both on the 40 man.

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  15. Its still too early to get too high or too low on anyone. Everyone is capable of having good weeks and bad weeks. And at this point in the season, one good week or one bad week can greatly alter a player’s 3 slash line or pitching components.

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      1. Last Ten (10) games: Hewitt is batting .351, .442, 459. A .901 OPS and he is 2 for 2 today.

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  16. Michael Taylor VS Dom Brown …..I always did like Taylor over Brown when they were first coming up in the system but The Phillies labeled Brown the can’t miss player . Wrong again !

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  17. truth hurts, but Imo that people are right on,when they say . we dont have on elite prospect. and to mention cloyd who is clocked at 87, is nuts.unforuntaly, the good propects were used in trades. Now I hope amaro and the owners go out and try to bring in some real talent in the draft. no more toolsy outfilder who cant hit. enough. no more cheap picks like dugan.they spend the most at big league level,but go cheap in draft makes no sense to me.and go bigger in international market.

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  18. As it stands now, with only incomplete information, in a world where prospect status can change drastically in 4 months, the Phillies have 8-10 guys who could be top 100 prospects at this time next year. A top 100 prospect is borderline elite. You can say elite guys are the top 25 prospects in the minors and that is fine. But the reality is, with 30 teams and an non-equal distribution of the elite talent, some teams won’t have an elite prospect. The Giants, for instance, do not have an elite prospect. There is no such thing as a can’t miss prospect, and the status of these guys changes very rapidly.

    Don’t get hung up on where guys are right now. No one outside of this site cared about Brian Pointer before the season started. Now Goldstein and Keith Law have both mentioned him in the last week or so as a guy who is a legit prospect and very interesting. In 3 months, it might be Roman Quinn or Larry Greene or Mitchell Walding or Kenny Giles or any number of guys. Trevor May has answered a lot of questions early on about his control. He might not be Roy Halladay or Justin Verlander, but he doesn’t have to be. His K rate is excellent and he looks like a really good #2 or 3 starter. That’s great.

    Cole Hamels is one of the 10 best starting pitchers in baseball, and his career development path in the minors was completely abnormal, compounded by off the field injuries and other issues. Developing a prospect as good as Cole Hamels is something all 30 teams hope to do, and something most teams aren’t able to do. Don’t compare our pitching prospects to him. And don’t get too carried away after 6 weeks of minor league games.

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    1. PP, I agree, but I think some of the negativity can be reasonably explained as follows:

      At the start of the season, the consensus was that the Phillies’ minor system was in the bottom third, roughly 25th. The response around here was not so much that that was wrong, but that, given the strength of the system at the lower levels, combined with the system’s good reputation for developing prospects, by the end of the year it was hoped that we would rocket up the rankings.

      That hasn’t happened yet. No real break out prospects. Yes it’s early, sample size, patience, there are some interesting guys such as Pointer, etc., but so far the news is – not bad, but not great either.

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  20. Taylor has not proven anything in the major leagues. In my opinion, when the weather warms up, you will see the animal that is Dom Brown unleashed. Its been absolutely gloomy up here – rain coupled with low 50s/mid 60s the past few weeks. That is just not easy to play good baseball in. Especially if you played baseball the vast majority of your life in Florida.

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    1. This is his 7th year in the minors…I would hope he’s used to non-Florida environments by now.

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      1. Agreed. If he’s waiting for the weather to change does that mean come October every year he’ll be worthless again? He needs to be hitting now and forcing his way into the Philly lineup.

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  21. Saying we potentially have 8-10 top 100 prospects doesn’t really mean anything. Every team has 8-10 guys who could be in next year’s top 100. Same thing with pointing to last year’s draft. Each team has interesting 2011 draft prospects who haven’t played yet.

    The system looks the same as last year. May is a legit top of the rotation guy and there’s interesting depth behind him on the pitching side. We still probably have a top 10 system as far as pitchers go. The problem is we don’t have a single position player right now who projects as a solid regular.

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  22. I am disappointed in Brown, though at this point that disappointment is limited to my original hope that he get off to a hot start so that he forces the issue. I don’t see any reason to think this first 100 at bats is not just a blip, but unfortunately, it does mean that at least for the next month or two, even if he gets hot, people will look at his season stats and wonder if he’s done enough to warrant making a move.

    Let’s just posit that, after 200 ABs, Dom’s OPS is .850, which I think is a reasonable expectation for him at AAA at this point. If in his first 100 ABs he’d dropped a 1050 OPS, and his second 100 he dropped a .650 OPS, the entire time, people would be pining for him (leaving Defense out of this at this point). However if that projectory is reversed, and his first 100 ABs are the .650 clip, and the second is the .1050 clip, the entire time people will saying he’s not the answer (as this thread amply demonstrates). The regualar statistical noise that should be expected in the course of a season will now likely have a very real effect on Dom’s role with the Phillies this year, which is unfortunate, because I do think that over the course of a season, he is one of the 3 most productive OFs in our system (including big club).

    A few other thoughts: I don’t think May is a legit top of the rotation guy, more a legit mid-rotation guy in a good rotation. That’s still a valuable asset, but I think the comparison to Cole is instructive. Top of the rotation guys rarely struggle the way May has at times in his career. If that is what you mean by his projectory being unique, so be it. It is unique. Top of the rotation starters are a rare breed, but Cole is not that unique among his peers.

    I agree that our depth is a strength and that for the most part not much has changed in the first 6 weeks; a few guys looking good, a few others disappointing, no one a clear cut Major League difference maker. Given where we are coming from, that is not surprising.

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    1. ‘I don’t think May is a legit top of the rotation guy, more a legit mid-rotation guy in a good rotation.’….how about with the Kansas City Royals?

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      1. Or how bout when Robert Person was the Phillies top of the roation guy? Yeah, for the Royals of recent vintage (sans Grienke years), sure May could project to be their top of rotation guy.

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    2. I was following you up until you said :

      “Top of the rotation guys rarely struggle the way May has at times in his career. If that is what you mean by his projectory being unique, so be it. It is unique. Top of the rotation starters are a rare breed, but Cole is not that unique among his peers.”

      What the heck are you talking about? The top two phillies aces (who also happen to be 2 of the top 5 or 10 pitchers in all of baseball), struggled mightily early in their careers.

      Lee posted a 5.24 ERA in his Sally debut, and you know all about his struggles after getting to the majors only to be sent back down.

      Halladay, at age 20, in AA/AAA he put up a pedestrian K/9 in the 5’s and a an ERA at 4.77.

      And that’s just evaluating 2 of the 3 phillies aces, it seems there are plenty exceptions to the “top of the rotation guys rarely struggle” arguement.

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      1. Just to follow that up, what the heck do you want from May to consider him a top of the rotation talent? You can argue about the odds he’ll reach his ceiling, but to say his ceiling isn’t sky high just doesn’t hold water with me. He’s got a career K/9 of 11.7, his BB/9 is down to 3.1 this year, with a WHIP of 1.08 and he’s age appropriate in his level.

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        1. Well, I think we have different understanding for what it means to be a legit top of the rotation guy. I think there are maybe 15 true stoppers in the game, and while I certainly include Halladay and Lee in that group, there struggles were the exception, not the rule. Hamels, Strasburg, Lincecum, F. Hernandez, Verlander, kershaw, Price, Weaver, etc. all more or less dominated. There may be some guys in that elite tier who got pushed aggressively and had to make adjustments, but May fell on his face a couple years ago in Clearwater, and the scouting reports matched the numbers. If you say “but look at Halladay!”, well, see above about exception/rule.

          His numbers last year were nice, the Ks certainly jump out, but he was still walking guys too much, and there has been intimations from time to time that scouts don’t see the Ks holding up against advanced hitters. And if you’re walking 4 per 9, you need to have an elite K rate to maintain.

          He has certainly put together a solid first 6 starts, but I think the reasonable projection at this point is still more mid-rotation innings eater with projection for a bit more. I mean, there’s a reason they play the games, so who knows what might happen. But there’s also a reason he got ranked where he got ranked over the offseason.

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    3. “Top of the Rotation” has nothing to do with the team. Not every team has a top of the rotation starter (some don’t even have 2’s or even 3’s), the Phillies have 3, there are probably only 10-15 top of the rotation starters (No. 1’s). The only top of the rotation guy who didn’t flash that potential in the minors is Lee and he is unique among aces.

      May’s upside is as a #2, that is really good, think Matt Cain circa 2010 or Gio Gonzalez now. That makes him a really good player, he doesn’t have that one monster skill to make him an ace (Hamel’s changeup, Lee’s command).

      If you want to have your own version of top of the rotation that is fine, but this what scouts as well as what the guys at BP and BA are using when they describe pitchers.

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  23. Alan : While a small sample , Michael Taylor is the starting RF with Oakland and can actually catch the ball. Dom Brown is not on the Phillies radar this season and may lead the league in errors by the end of the year.

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      1. Personally, I’m dumping on him because, after 7 full seasons, he still can not make routine plays in the outfield.

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          1. debut!….what, do you want to go through the complete database of major league players from the beginnng to prove an irrelevant point!

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    2. The griping about Michael Taylor is ridiculous. He just cracked the majors this year.

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    3. It’s beyond a small sample size. Taylor has started ONE game in right field! I honestly hope he succeeds, but Taylor hasn’t locked down a big league job by any stretch of the imagination.

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        1. Yes, because they would have jumped a A ball guy to the Majors and plugged him into their everyday lineup at Age 21 despite the fact that that NEVER happens. And if it had, he’d likely own several impressive records such as “Most Errors Allowed in a Season, Lowest Fielding Percentage in a Season, etc etc”.

          In 400 PA in AAA, he’s got a .790ish OPS with brutally bad fielding. He’s not being blocked, he just hasnt performed. They tried to hand him a starting job last year and his defense got him sent back to the minors.

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  24. How many mistakes did Charlie make last night in the 7th and 8th inning ?
    7th inning with Pierre on second and Rollins on first..why not have Orr bat for Mayberry to bunt players to 2nd and third ? Mayberry had a feebile attempt at a bunt then popped out to second .

    8th inning Wigginton on third and Ruiz on second with one out . Since you didn’t use Orr in the 7th why not have him pinch run for Wiigginton ( who was thrown out at the plate ) Also no way Galvis bats with one out with 2nd and 3rd ( Again if Orr wasn’t used , he would PH even Savery would be a better option ) Kratz who made the 3rd out and swung at 2 pitches out of the strike zone .

    Once again Charlie showed why he can’t manage one run ball games

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    1. I am beginning to think, because of Charlie’s insecurity, he forces Ruben’s hand, and makes him make the personnel manuvering that would appear questionable to the ordinary fan, ie the juggling of Dom Brown between AAA and the majors, the last few years.

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  25. When did this site turn into WIP? I’m sick and tired of all the Brown hate. He’s struggling in the early season, yes, and he’s had his ups and downs during his stints in the majors. NOTHING about his struggles is surprising or unusual. Look at the difficulties Jason Heyward (a much more touted prospect) has experienced. Or, to take an even more instructive comparison, look at Alex Gordon’s career? High draft pick, tons of talent, showed flashes of brilliance initially and then spent two years shuttling between AAA and the majors. Had to shift positions to left field from third base. People were ready to give up on him, and then last year, he puts it all together and puts up All Star caliber numbers.

    Prospects take time to develop. Even elite ones encounter struggles. Brown may pan out, he may not. But his development is not something we will be able to assess by parsing the box scores on a daily basis. None of us are capable of passing final judgement on him at this point, especially with regard to his defensive abilities, which few of us have been able to observe firsthand.

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    1. “When did this site turn into WIP? I’m sick and tired of all the Brown hate.”

      Seriously, do you people not understand the concept of small sample size?. Or did you guys forget that this team just had a decade of Pat Burrell or Raul Ibanez in left everyday? Give me a break with this nonsense.

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    2. Seriously, its not hate to criticize his defense after 7 professional seasons of learning how to be an outfielder. After 7 seasons, he should be able to make routine plays routinely. If not for his defense, he’d be in his 2nd full season with the big league club.

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